depot about aplaces? we have jack henry, which does software for regional banks. >> and retail sales, and fed minutes. so, we still have a lot going on that's going to do it for us at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now >> right now on "fast," buying or crying? what is the real read on consumers? one wall street heavy weight says negative headlines about the health of the consumer are overblown. details coming up. plus, u.s. steel rejecting a more than $7 billion offer from rival cleveland cliffs, but now another bidder putting an all-cash offer on the table. will x sign off on a sale and will regular lay tomorrows allow the deal to get done we'll debate that. and tesla's summer slump is picking up steam nvidia's surge and florida governor ron desantis not ready to bury the beef with disney quite yet i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money,

money,". and with retail earning season about to kick off, we start off with potential to believe the death of the consumer has been greatly exaggerated. bank of america upgrading the discretionary sector an overweight from an underweight, laying out a host of reasons growing hopes for a soft landing, no recession means more consumption, they say. plus, consumers biggest debt burden, their mortgage, are in fixed low rates. so, not subject to moves and bond yields. analysts highlighting rising real wages and earnings beats in the discretionary sector should this signal we are in for strong reports next week guy, maybe we're just too worried about the consumer, everything is just fine in consumer-land. >> i wake up for it, mel >> i know. >> i understand why there's reason for optimism without question u.s. consumer will always spend if nothing bad is going on and i always view it through the lens of the stock market when there's an event in the stock market to the downside, that's when consumer behavior stops on a dime. 73% of our economy is driven by

people buying things who is the winners it's clear in terms of the stock, i think steeple had a report out, 71% of households in this country earning $100,000 or more shopped at walmart com paired to, like, 50% at target and 30%, i think, at home depot. walmart wins, target loses walmart's an all-time high target is $3 away from a 52-week low. tjx on that side wins as well. it's obviously what's going on those retailers will do well in this environment the health of the consumer, i don't know trillion dollar in credit card fighting inflation, adding more debt that works until it doesn't. >> interesting, you mentioned walmart, and again, truly magnificent performance, especially relative to some of its peers like target, can't get out of its own way i think that more of a consumer staple they were benefits when inflation is a big thing and now they're benefitting with a mon raiding consumer we heard about the trade down, that sort of still if you look at the xly, sometimes you can -- it's a bit

of a mirage. amazon, about 24%, tesla is about 18%, home depot, mcdonald's, lowe's, then you start getting into something that maybe feels a bit more discretionary. the xly made a new 52-week high, it's come back a little bit. that largely has to do probably with tesla, so, when i think about amazon and the results they just gave us, they did tell us the consumer is pretty good that strength came in their retail business. but it had to do with their margin on their retail business. and at some point, might speak to their ability to pass forward certain costs at discount, right, to a cob schumer. that's why this week is really important, because we're going to get a wide swath of different retailers here >> what is the incentive of the retailers to be bullish? what is there incentive to be bullish when there's so many things on the horizon, like the repayment of student loans >> it's really all about kind of managing those expectations. and i don't really see a whole

lot of a reason for them to come out and be too bullish and run the risk of disappointing investors. that is the last thing you want to do. we've had the cpi print and the ppi print, which seem to tell slightly two different stories we've had amazon that tells the situation with cloud and we've had some of the other smh components come out and not be as glowing as we would have expected there seems to be a k-shaped recovery when it comes to the consumer we talked about the trade down you have people that have the interest rates, debt that's fueling asset purchases, and those assets are, you know, are being accretive in this environment, and you have a cohort that is debt that's fueling purchasing and i think that's the pocket we really need to focus on. if there are cracks, it will likely be that cohort. >> julie, what's your take here? i feel like this desk overall has been fairly cautious/negative when it comes to the u.s. consumer including yourself

so, what do you say to all these arguments put out today? >> i think -- there used to be a colleague as merrill lynch, so, i'm loathe to disagree with her, but i think there are some concerns i have, but it depends on who you're asking, right? so, if you look at real liquid assets, if you are in the bottom 99%, they have grown 2%, 3% since the beginning of covid if you are in the top 1%, they've grown 23%. so, that's a pretty big i dense s differential in terms of liquid assets and what is consumer discretionary doing relative to income and it is at a high that it hasn't seen in 30 years. and in order for it to return to normalization, it would have to drop 10% so, i think, you know, there's the issue of the stocks, which i think is more what this stock call is really about, and then there's the issue of the fundamentals, and i think we should be concerned about some of these consumers, because we're really clearly racking up

a lot of debt and at some point, that has to come due >> part of the argument is that fund managers are extremely over -- excuse me, underweight consumer discretionary it's the positioning that plays into this whole thing, in terms of the expected snap in the stock. >> and the stocks are interesting, because what we learned in q-2 earnings season, there was a lot of dispersion. names you want to put together here, a lot of stocks acting in different ways we mentioned walmart and target. and guy, maybe it's a question for you, sorry, maybe it's a question for guy, at some point, maybe is target so bad that it's good if they come in line, let's say they don't even raise guidance and the margins are okay, stock trading at 13 1/2 times next year's earnings seems reasonable, relative to a walmart that trades above a market multiple, you know, many turns versus a target or something like that. it almost seems like you want this stock in a messy market to sell off and buy it, rather than buying walmart at an all-time high >> the merchandise mix is not as

cond conducive, guy, i'll pose the question to you, thank you, dan. >> is this a would you rather? >> when it comes to valuation -- yeah, do you think the sacrifices you make, in terms of the more beneficial mix walmart has for the valuation that target has >> i'll stick with walmart, though i'll play the game correctly they fired up the graphic. would you rather you and the answer is walmart. people are shopping at walmart it is clear. when you have $100,000 and mar more, 71% of those people are shopping at walmart. they will win. add to it, back to school, which walmart will win, as well, over target, because they have groceries and they have the people in their stores, so -- target's problems are partially the consumer, a lot of it is self-inflicted wounds, and the stocks are telling the story >> consumers might be spending the same amount, but they have to make it stretch because they're getting less, you know

when you're paying 20% more for a bag of doritos year on year, whatever the number is, it's astronomical for snack food, you're going to look for the lowest price and that could be at walmart, bonawyn, so, it's not necessarily the amount, but how the consumer is making that stretch. >> and it's the offering of the private labels in the tradedown you know, one thing worth mentioning in this report is the val valuation of some of the staple names. and that, to me, really is the catalyst for the trade essentially, you're lookining se of the names that are trading a 24, 25, 26 times, and yes there is margin of safety there. but the question that this trade idea really poses is is at what point is there some relative value? and i think that if we get through these earnings season, if we get through this earnings season, we don't see the deterioration of the consumer, that might be what is at least the short-term tail wind for that trade to work out >> what do you think of that -- staples are expensive. >> uh-huh. no question about it listen, i think at a certain

point, maybe that makes sense, but i think the differentiation is going to continue in this environment. people are -- you know, i understand the health of the consumer, money on the sidelines, balance sheet, all that stuff, but the reality is, consumer debt has never been higher in this country and, you know, as long as the stock market continues to grind higher, everything will be fine, but if something were to happen, like we saw in the fall of 2018, consumer spending stops on a dime >> here's a prediction next monday -- >> hot take. >> if you'll have me back, next monday, i'll bet you a pair short walmart, long target right here is going to make money week over week. >> short walmart -- >> long target >> pairs trade >> all right, we'll see. our next guest suggests apple and consumer are the reason stocks look strong. you are seeing first-hand what consumers are doing. >> that's right. >> what are they doing >> yeah, so we deal with the consumer, the average everyday

american, and they're spending on staple goods like you just men mentioned, walmart, amazon, target, that spending is rock solid. it hasn't moved that much. and so, what they are doing is getting less for their money and so, for staple goods, that's obviously something that's new for americans, that's just happened and you're seeing that roll into retail sales coming lower, retail confidence, so, the confidence numbers are coming down on the indices. and so, from a consumer point of view, they're saying, okay, ooij not getting as much money -- i'm not getting as many goods for my money, and then i'm having to spend more money through credit card debt, we hit a trillion dollars on that, for the same goods. and so, for the average consumer, they are not exactly struggling, but they are struggling to make that money go as far as they traditionally well >> you guys have the debit card, and now you just introduced a credit product here. >> we did.

>> interesting when you think about the average consumer, and you think about the places in which they're spending, are you starting to see some data that shows -- you mentioned a trillion dollars in consumer credit, are you starting to see any sorts of shift that would -- look, lead you to believe that we're going to start getting to territory that feels uncomfortable for a consumer that maybe many in your demographic are going to start to repay student loans, that sort of thing. so, do you track that? >> we do track that. we're not seeing any -- we're seeing mixed signs, as probably the tldr for us. for an affluence standpoint, which you guys have just mentioned, 22% of credit card debt has been pulled down just now, so, you've still got 78%, if you want to take a bullish view, 78%. affluent people with big credit lines, the average household has $8,000 on their credit car from $6,019 in 2020 there's still some way to go 90% of all mortgage rates are locked in below 6% and so, for many people, they're not going to move house. they're not going to move jobs

so, you want to take a bullish view, there is some dry powder there to go. for the average consumer, the average american who is trying to make those staples go as far as they can, i don't think there's that much breathing room for them and so, credit building is such an important part of -- and your credit score is such an important apy of how much money you spend on your debt, we never needed to look at that over the last ten years you have debt and it's just been, like, whatever it is now, because you are sensitive to that interest rate, you are going to look at the input of that, your credit score, and so, we've got this product called build that helps people, every day americans, build their credit with their bank account >> what is your take on how consumers view that dry powder, that remaining credit line that they can still use, if the interest rate is 26% or whatever horrifying rate it is these days >> yeah, i think this is what's coming into the psyche of, whether you pull down or not so, definitely, when it comes to mortgages and auto loans, you

are probably not going to look at them too often. when it comes to revolving credit, if it comes to staples, which is starting to happen now, you are going to pull down on that line. you are going to fooedeed your family over 22% on that apy. that credit building, maintaining a good credit score in this time for the people on 25k, 55k household income, it's an important thing to do >> in a former life, stuart was a trader at morgan stanley great to have him on here. what do you make of the bond market moves and the currency moves that we're seeing? obviously, no impact on the stock market, but is it just sort of inevitability with that? >> i think when it comes to the retail stocks, you're going to -- i think you will see earnings beats and revenue misses but overarchingly, what we're going to see is liquidity training the bond market -- it looks like it's happening all right, and so, we'll see this sort of volatile to sideways move.

we're all going to make bets, you heard you make a pairs bet just now we're all going to be making these bets, and i'm sure they're smart, but i think over the next two, three months, the overarching theme will bely liquidity train. the japanese market is in turmoil, though the boj is doing a good job, i think, and that will be the dominating factor over the summer, until we get back -- until everyone's back from labor day >> all right, stuart, great to see you. thank you for putting your trader cap on. bonawyn, what is your take on, you know, where the consumer is based on what stuart said? >> i think he brings up some very interesting points. if you are tapping credit to source purchase of consumer staples, to me, i don't -- i don't know -- you can't trade down, you doubt have an alternative, we can talk about fixed rates on mortgages, but how costly is it for you to tap into that equity to use that to propel purchasing power anyway that raised the hairs on the

back of my neck. i think that is a tell-tale sign, coming from a company that specializes in parsing that data >> and, you know, julie, remember last quarter, we heard from dollar general that said a lot of the customers are trading down to food banks and you got to wonder if that's still happening at this point. i mean, it's -- probably is. >> yeah, i would imagine that it's still happening i think some of the good news is that if you look at the -- where the wage growth is really happening, it's more so in the lower income, but you still are seeing a lot of diver jens among the retailers, and generally speaking, going back to our previous point, it really pays to pay attention to who is executing well and who isn't, right? target versus walmart, but dollar general, dollar tree, you're seeing a huge diver jens between these two names, and it's about their execution and their ability to deliver something. it's not even like a wage effect i think you can find names in retail that are pretty oversold, but that are showing the ability to execute well, and i think they'll do okay. >> it's interesting, stuart

mentioned that the percentage of home owners who have these low mortgage rates and then also when you think about where unemployment is, and he used this term a couple times, if you want to make the bullish argument i think that's what -- i get it, it doesn't mean it has to translate back into the stock market this is that soft landing scenario and as far as the stoshgt market is concerned, you know, we are pricing soft landing we are there right now and so, if you think about the stock market as a forward-looking discounting mechanism, it's discounting a lot of good news at the moment >> if retailers come in and they have terrible forecasts, is soft landing soft of less likely or does it not change would retailers say, it's separate from what the economists see >> i think that -- that's a fascinating question i don't think it's going to change the narrative >> i don't think so, either, which is fascinating, right? >> yes i agree with that 100%

i don't necessarily think it matters what they say. you made the point earlier, why wouldn't they sort of sandbag in this environment because you can. the reality is, to me, at least, i understand the soft landing through the lens of the stock market, but the lens through a lot of other things, to me, gets more and more difficult. we've got a news alert here on 13-f filings. leslie picker has the details. >> hey, mel. managers here appear to be doubling down on big tech during the runup in the second quarter. others crystallized their gains. tiger global in the latter camp here, pearing back amazon, microsoft, they dissolved apple, but it boosted its stake in meta, to hold $2.5 billion worth of that company at quarter end and it bought a lot more nvidia, as well. other managers actually buying into the rally third point's dan lobe telling investors in a letter at the end of july that its exposure to

microsoft, amd, amazon, and google were, quote, undersized and the profits from those positions were offset by losses elsewhere during the quarter we can see from today's filings that third point boosted its stake in amd and took a new position in amazon, worth about half a billion dollars at quarter end and actually sold more than half of its stake in alphabet, which is google's parent company apple broadly bullish, boosting stakes in alphabet, amazon, microsoft, and adding to chinese tech names, as well, where as we've seen a lot of other managers really kind of exit that exexposure, mel >>less l >> leslessley leslie, thank you. julie, what stood out to you >> yeah, you know, i think it's interesting noting where people are positioning themselves in big tech and i think, to me, there's just so much more opportunity in names that are maybe a little bit less heavily traded and hotly followed

i think there's obviously opportunities that are very specific to nvidia, but the rest of the names, it's still a real challenge to understand exactly how a.i. plays out, and they won't really tell us how they think it's going to trickle through their business model other than to say, it makings it better so, i think overall, it's pretty expensive place to be yo, and t expectations are extremely high, and that makes me uneasy. coming up, a sought after steal. a new all-cash offer for u.s. steel. more on the potential deal and how it's impacting the options markets, next. plus, some fast movers in the financial services space paypal naming a new chief, as w haub gich gives back its gain. hoyou should trade theeszse nams when "fast money" returns.

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nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "fast money. u.s. steel shares soaring 30% today. a bid late in this session with privately held pennsylvania-based esmark offering $7.8 billion in cash. that came after u.s. steel rejected a $7.3 billion offer from cleveland cliffs on sunday. cliffs ceo spoke about the offer

on "squawk on the street" earlier today. >> my offer is more than reasonable it's a reach offer so, i believe that that company's worth what i offered i am not doing any favors to them but this is a deal for people that understand their money. not people that hide behind consultants, not people that talk about the interest and they don't have a clue how to deal with it. >> cleveland clutches shares were up by double-digits but dipped after news of esmark's offer. he says he's got the support of a key union. you're going to need that if you go through any deal. >> he's not one to mince words >> no. >> exactly these stocks outside a brief period of time have done nothing for 15, 20 years let's just establish that. nothing to do necessarily with management, it's the environment, it's the industry, it's very difficult. that said, there's a reason why

he's trying to move forward with this they clearly see something in terms of the landscape, and it's that resource trade that tim talks about all the time so, we can talk about deflation out of china, we can talk about those things the reality is, these companies are entirely too cheap in this environment. so, i don't necessarily know if this deal is going to get done, but i look at that and i continue to connect dots, and we talked about the ewz, the brazil etf, i think, that's correct, right, ewz, about two, three weeks ago, that's breaking out of a 15-year downtrend and it's all about resources. if you want to be in the space, that's the best place. >> they moved to the mini mills, where they melt down and recycle metal instead of making steel from iron ore, sort of a transition that's been going on, but you know, this helps, because it fields into sectors like autos, julie. if you believe that we are on the cusp of sort of, you know, the soft landing and things are going to open up and there's

going to be more work for industrials, you need all this metal for that >> yeah, i think there's definitely a case to be made, but with all of these industries, the real key is that you need scale so, consolidation to the extent that the ftc will allow it makes a lot of sense for these businesses, because frankly, they are extremely capital intensive, and they're very challenging to run i think, you know, the second bid is interesting, but the first bid has, you know, the vote on the unions on both sides and that's going to be more material to winning it in this environment very specifically. >> funny, when you look at the sort of activity, in the cliffs, this is a stock deal, right? they're not taking debt, they're not paying a lot of cash you don't have that much downside if this is something you can be committed to at a proper valuation, to julie's point, you get the scale that makes you better compete on a global scale, it makes sense. and you basically put a floor under your own valuation, too. so, to me, i don't think cliffs had much to lose the fact the stock didn't trade down on that sort of bid tells you that >> yeah, they didn't have much

to lose at all the esmark deal tells you exactly they priced this thing in line. and i can understand what he's saying in terms of the m&a, things of that nature. but the enterprise value of this company was $11 billion or $12 billion in march they are staring down the barrel at $7.8 billion, and psychologically, feels like way too far from our high water mark that we just had so, i would expect this to probably come back to the negotiating table and for them to find some compromise that works for both i definitely think that the scale is what's going to be necessary in this capital-intensive business >> options traders are feeling very bullish that u.s. steel will get a deal done with someone. mike khouw has a look at the huge day for the stock mike >> yeah, this one was one of the top ten most active single stock options. traded well over 15 times its daily average options value. it was the august 30 calls that were most active, but those wer

taken over by the august 35. i should point out that it's a common strategy to buy stock and then sell upside calls to squeeze a little bit more premium out when they are anticipating a deal is going to happen, and i think that's the way they're betting on this one. >> for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show, that's friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. we have a market flash on discover financial kate rooney has the details on this kate >> hey, melissa. so, the ceo of discover financial is stepping down this is effective immediately. he's stepping down as chairman and president of the board here, also ceo all effective today. he'll stay on as an adviser of the board through the end of the year the board, they say, has established a special search committee to find a successor. there is an interim ceo stepping up, john owen, a current member of the board he'll be the interim president and ceo. a bit unusual of this

resignation. b the release does not say why stock down more than 4% afterhours back to you. >> kate, thank you kate rooney. when you see an executive resign effective immediately, it is a little odd, it's not just all, don't let the door hit new the back here, but -- >> oh. well, hopefully it's not a health thing let's get that out of the way. they reported on july -- less than a month ago, they reported. there was no mention, no nothing, even remotely close about something like this. so, it has to wonder what's going on sell first, ask questions later, right? that's going to be the first thing. and you look at this company, which made an all-time high year and a half or so ago people are going to knock this stock down 98, probably lower tomorrow. there is a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. financial focus.

paypal naming a new head honcho, as charles schwab comes back down to earth. all the moves in the financial services space next. plus, crude reality. oil off its highs, as concerns grow over growth in china. so, where are prices headed next we'repumping into the energy trade ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. paypal getting a push higher after announcing a new ceo

a senior executive at intuit will take the reins next month he led intuit's acquisition of mail chimp we have some clarity here, dan >> i'm not into it >> oh. >> i'll just say this. this company, and we talked about it a lot after they reported earnings, another gap, two consecutive gaps in a row, and investors in fin tech don't care about valuation the way they didn't care onnen the upside about a year and a half ago to me, that sort of clarity -- i am into it a little bit, i think is pretty good, it's a good fin tech sort of transitional sort of leadership, so, to me, again, i think in the low 60s, the stock is a buy >> meantime, charles schwab slipping 3.5%, now even closer to giving back its post-earnings gains. the stock rose to $69 in the days after its q-2 report last month, but is down nearly 12% since then

dan actually flagged the move. >> yeah. just really quickly, i'll hand it over, i think it's interesting when you see a move like this off the lows, it was at the eye of the regional banking storm and there was no fire there now it 's filling in the gap. just mind the gap. >> bonawyn >> yeah, i mean,19 times forward, i just don't know if it's really compelling at this point. you look at the other competitors, i think there's other places, that you're more comfortable being, so, as carter says, a pair of twos i'm not really selling it, but i don't see a compelling reason to buy. coming up, energy pulling off, crude oil pulling back as china concerns weigh on the space. so, where is energy headed next? we'll lay out the take next on prices and production cuts that interview, when "fast that interview, when "fast money" returns with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins, you can pay more but you can't get more.

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welcome back to "fast money. tech stocks with a comeback. the nasdaq gaining more than a percent today, climbing back above its 50-day moving average. the s&p adding .6% nvidia, take a look at this jump more than 7% for its best day since may, after morgan stanley named it to its top pick heading

into earnings. the firm calling the resent selloff a good entry point and look at some home builder stocks off the bell. berkshire hathaway and crude pulling back after staging a rally over the past two months, but gas prices back on the rise, inching towards four buck as gallon. levels not seen since june of last year. so, what can we expect as we head into the end of the year? wha halima croft with us always great to have you on "fast. >> thank you for having me >> last time you were on was in june >> yes >> and that's when the saudis announced cuts and all about the saudis -- >> it was that million dollar a day unilateral production cut, they announced it at the june opec meeting there was some skept siicism, w said the fact they're going al alone, it just shows their

resolve to stabilize this market i think the saudi action, we have seen a russian pull-back. remember in june, when everyone was so worried about the oil market, they kept saying, about mad da of russian oil on the market their barrels are down $808800, barrels since june we haven't seen a dropoff. june was a monster month for chinese buying july softer, but august looks pretty good so far >> on a national security front -- >> yes >> how important is it for us to replenish the spr? and crude getting away from it it was right there in the cross hairs a couple months ago. >> wthe biden administration cam out this summer and said, we're in buy-back mode you know what they did they just paused it. and again, i think this goes to the toolkit for the biden administration they're not going to do blockbuster spr releases, they paused buy-backs, but they're

having to rely on energy demo democracy. and what did we get last week? we got this informal iran deal, they're not going to call it a deal, because they have to take it to congress, but the biden administration, they did the hostage deal, they're going to get their $6 billion, but also, it's going to be, go soft on sanctions. they basically want those iranian barrels on the market. it's going to be about getting whatever barrel you can on the market, they're making trips to saudi arabia, trying to get the saudis to put more barrels on the market they're having to thaw back on energy diplomacy >> you just mentioned china, and a lot of the economic reasons, they're not great. >> no. >> okay, so, they have a deflati deflationary spiral, after the move we've seen in crude, doesn't it set up for a tough move from here we just got back to those highs from the spring, if you're looking at wti in around here. is this something you want to buy for a breakout here? or are you focused on the weakness in china? >> i think you have to have a wait and see approach to china

remember in 2015, the credit scare in by the end of the year, china imports held up. right now, you have this macro wall of worry on china, but the chinese oil import data looks solid. some skeptics are saying it's going into inventory, but refineries, it looks ps pretty o right now. from the oil market perspective, it looks pretty solid, but again, you cannot overlook the risk from the macro side but everything is pointing to, on the supply side, saudi resolve and china's holding in there on demand. >> so, if china, if all the numbers out of china on the oil front look decent at this point, even though the economic data is coming in soft, if there is some sort of bailout, you know, we're seeing the biggest property developer, now e, gogo under, practically -- >> signs of strength in the broad er chinese economy, in you want to say, what's the dynamic, beyond this sort of 80, 90 brent

range, i think you want to see strength in china. more optimism as the china story. because the supply side, the saudis are saying, we'll do whatever's necessary >> so, to dan's point, are we sort ofin this range at this point? >> i you thisthink we're in thi now. people are not at the office, thinly traded market right now we want to go into fall and say, what does the macro picture look like if we continue to see signs of strength in chinese buying, people will say, well, look, there's a macro concern, but the chinese data looks strong. >> most people can't say where a barrel of oil is nor should they be able to they know where gasoline is, though and gas has gone up significantly. >> right and there are issues beyond crude. there are issues on refinery capacity and again, this is a conundrum for the biden administration you've done the spr, you did the blockbuster releases so, what do you do what's in your tool kit? you can appeal for more u.s. production u.s. production has been really strong remember people said we'd never

see 13 million barrels capital discipline u.s. production has been strong this year. but again, what else do they have in their toolkit? that's why, look for things like that iran deal, look for potential deals more on venezuela, look for the traditional call to riyadh saying help me out. >> are they going to pick up the phone? >> well, we have this broader reset conversation saudi hosted this big ukraine peace forum, jake sullivan was there, saudi/israel normalization talks, the saudis are looking for defense. there's a deal to be done, but it won't be just about oil >> all right, halima, thank you. >> thank you for having me >> julie biel, what is your take this goes back to our first conversation, impact on the consumer >> yeah, i think my big question would be understanding the impact of what happens, you know, you see a real weakening in the u.s. consumer, how does that kind of ripple through oil

markets at large i'd be really curious to kind of understand how that dynamic plays out, both in terms of actual volume, but really, also in terms of the psychology of the global markets they seem pretty sensitive and a little bit emotional, you might say. >> yeah, and another thing is, i know we've had a significant amount of u.s. onshoring i'm curious about the effects of hurricane season it seems like a perfect storm possibly for the consumer looming. like the sbr release, there have been steps taken to kind of mitigate those risks >> i mean, one hurricane comes, it's a bad one, and you are easily well over four bucks. >> going to talk about heating oil in the fall and winter, without question that's why, as you know, two of the letters in my -- what do they call those things >> acronym >> acronyms are -- >> doesn't matter which is which. >> they are interchangeable. you know what's not interchangeable? halima croft's position on the mount rushmore of energy people. she's chiseled into that sucker.

>> she's the best. but it's interesting that the dollar's regained some ground. if you look at the dixie if we got more dollar strength, what might that mean for crude here and to the point you had, the great question, if we're going to call riyadh, i don't think they're picking up, you know what i'm saying? i think you have that one down. coming up, tesla shares in reverse. new price cuts from china aren't helping the pain will the stock keep falling? and desantis versus does knee brian sullivan sitting down with the florida governor for an interview. what he had to say about his ongoing feud with the media asmoy"s cktw "ft ne iba in o.

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make the baby cry. give the baby back. fly home. silver tier in a single trip. join one key and move up tiers fast. welcome back to "fast money. shares of tesla lower today. a fresh round of price cuts in china. today's stock drop adding to a rough ridefor tesla, down 15% over the last month. the shares have been below its 50-day moving average for six straight days, but are still up more than 94% this year. dan nathan where do you stand on tesla now? >> tough one i mean, listen how many price cuts have we had here, in europe, in china, and china, we just talked about the

deflation their readings, they don't seem to be abating and this is a company that is in a price war with lots of local competitors and relying on manufacturing there at a time, and i know they said on their last call that shanghai, the factory is going to be shut down for retooling. i just can't imagine that the chinese business is going to be particularly good this quarter and it's going to continue to weigh on margins and that's the story that's one of the reasons i've been very bearish on the stock, despite the price action we saw after they reported a very bad q-1, and i thought the q-2 was not particularly great so, expect further margin pressures. if margin goes lower, i don't know how the stock stays much above $200 >> are you still short >> yes >> are you long still? >> no. >> no, you're not. >> no, i was not >> i thought -- >> it was nvidia, a tesla options trade. i know what you're talking about, a tesla options trade long-term holder no you have to play the trend in this name. the fundamentals, honestly, i'm

not going to try to wrap my head around them, because i don't think they matter. i don't think the valuation matters. you have to play momentum. and you continue to ride that until that trend resets. not nearly as bearish as dan is, but with that said, i do think that, like, it just doesn't look good as it is right now. i think if the lever they're using is price to compete and squeeze others out, and that's the only lever that won't be offset, that does not bode well. >> any growth industry, you use price. the dominant player usually uses price, you squeeze them out. that's how you gain market share, that's how you make the other competitors go out of business why is this any different? >> they've always had the market share, number one. it's been theirs to lose, and they've talked about thateir margins being better, the historic, or, the -- the oems, the fords and the gms, the fact that now their margins go up from 24% to legacy auto makers 16%, 17%, is a problem now, if you tell me you're going

to make it up on the volume side, okay, i can buy that but if your margins decrease and volume isn't there, that's the problem. and quickly, despite the fact that tesla went from 110 to 300, which was crazy, the stock is still down about 44% from its all-time high of november 2021, important to point that out. >> after the break, desantis' disney dispute the florida governor weighing in on his feud with the company what he told our our brian sullivan in an exclusive interview, that is next. "fast money" is back in two. mlb partners with t-mobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

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we lead the nation in new business formation great fiscal posture people are bringing capital into florida. this is a great place to do business universal sea world, they have not had the same special privileges as you have, so, all we want to do is treat everybody the same, and let's move forward. i'm totally fine with that, but i'm not fine with giving extraordinary privileges, you know, to one special company at the exclusion of everybody else. >> that was florida governor ron desantis speaking with brian sullivan in addressing his very public fight with disney desantis taking aim at walt disney world's special tax

district, and urging bob iger to back down from the company's lawsuit against the state of florida, which alleges a targeted company against the entertainment giant. so, do the latest comments by desantis spell more trouble to disney he was speaking directly to iger, your competitors do fine here julie, sounds like he's digging in for the fight, though >> yeah, it's kind of an unusual position to be taking, right you know, going after your -- one of the largest employers in florida, you know, who has quite a halo in terms of its brand he's going to outlaw puppies next, i assume it's a challenging position he's got himself into, because i don't think he has a lot of public support he doesn't make a bad point in saying that they have special treatment, but i think the way that he's gone about it is problematic. you know, as for disney, i think they borderline have been enjoying this, because it's really pretty clear they have the upper hand on it, but i

don't think long-term it's a real problem for them. i think their own problems are homegrown. >> you know, i agree with julie, and i will say, his polling in the republican primary is not going particularly well, so, once he goes down into, like, single digits or something like that, ultimately, he'll be out of the race and then i'll bet you bob iger sits down with ron desantis and they iron this thing out in an adult-like way i just really do think this is, like, one of those culture war issues that he thinks works for him in the republican primary, and i think to julie's point, it's not polling particularly well >> let's say this gets resolved, does the stock pop or it didn't really have -- too much impact on the downside? >> i thought the stock, when it popped after earnings, after they announced, obviously, they -- >> price hikes >> that was, to me, a moment in time, we could make an argument that was the worst for does knee we are right back where we. >> reporter: were prior to earnings which is not particularly good, unfortunately. >> bonawyn >> i think it's a nonevent i don't think there's much stock

reaction maybe you get some of the short-term bonds that, like, trading on the back of news, but that quickly gets flushed out. >> all right, well, do not miss the full interview with florida governor ron desantis. that airs tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time on "last call," right here on cnbc. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn julie? >> ali is more of the under the radar indy play. >> bonawyn >> i know it looks like the stock is kind of chopped out a bit, but i would still wait on foot locker. >> dan >> yeah, we were talking about paypal here, new ceo this guy presided over a company that traded well over 30 times earnings for years trading at a 52-week high. probably a good choice. >> i'm looking out in new york city's times square and there's a nasdaq heavy band that's playing -- i think i saw adina friedman doing -- >> what are you talking about? you know i can't turn around -- >> you can turn around. >> i'm going to turn around.

see, there's a band there. >> oh, there is a band there >> it's a nasdaq band. ewz, as we mentioned earlier, melissa. >> thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now