♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines fears out of china pull equity markets in the red as the chinese economy faces a pullback in bank loans. europe shrugs off the china concerns as the stoxx 600 is

moving lower. and republican presidential candidates campaign in iowa evover the weekend, but trump faces an indictment over his attempts to overturn the 2020 election loss in georgia good morning welcome to "street signs." we have big down trades from asia today chinese markets in focus we are watching the hang seng down 1.5%. knikkei is down 1.3%. investors are focused on all of the commentary from the chinese home builders and the issues with the bank loan data for the

month of july. let's get to jason ong who is joining us with more color of what is happening with the overnight markets, jp. >> reporter: good morning. it wasn't the start of the trading in asia. we didn't have much to go on it was a lackluster handoff from wall street and catalyst and data release to chew on. it is a concern of the chinese property market which is keeping people risk off in the part of the world. no one is falling off a cliff. there are losses from the hang seng which will close in a couple of minutes. you see live trading it is a notable loss, but not really severe bleeding for the hang seng. look at hang seng property index. the big pullbacks. down to the latest developer

which is running into the problems, joumanna that is country garden two of the bonds were halted in trading onshore. it is raising questions days after country garden missed payments on the u.s. bonds it is not yet in default they have until september to make the payments before hethey are actually in default. country garden is bigger and if they show they are unable to finance the bond payments and unable to continue, this could mean bigger problems for china this is the biggest pillar which is 20% to 30% of the economy's dep dependence on the real estate sector country garden falling below 1%.

these concerns have carried over to the rest of the asian markets. australia closing in the red nikkei is unable to see the confidence as we saw the yen from weakness to strength in the session in a flight to safe haven. tomorrow, china will report the production data. if we get another dismal set, some will point to another slowdown in the chinese economy. for the region, this has a growing link to the chinese economy which is showing signs of sputtering. what the policymakers will do is a big question mark for many to address and will alter the direction of the markets trading and the overall chinese economy. joumanna >> jp, thank you

i want to bring viewers breaking news with respect to country garden the company will be seeking to extend full repayments for onshore bonds in september by three years in installments. that is a reflection of how dire the situation is for the real estate company china's largest developer as jp was highlighting the stock is down 18%. they are looking to extend the bond repayment due at the beginning of september by as much as three years. that is a reflection of the liquidity situation. it is also being represented in other real estate companies trading under water today. we are keeping a close eye on that the hand over was no pretty. over in europe, after the soft start, we are beginning to turn positive. green on the heat map behind me.

the stoxx 600 is up .20% regaining the losses from the week last week not a lot of data. throughout the week, there is going to be a lot with the minutes from the u.s. on wednesday and retail sales data and retail companies reporting as well. that gives us an indication of what happens stateside in europe, we have a bunch of macro data to watch out for. let's show you what is happening on the indices ftse 100 is trading 4 basis points we are seeing minors coming under selling pressure with the links to china big week for the uk with wage data tomorrow and we have more indication on the labor sector is doing and on wednesday, we get the all-important cpi figures as well. bank of england will want to see it moving in the right

direction. big week coming up cac 40 in france is up .30%. we have the dax leading the gains up .50%. we are about 100 points away from 16,000. we have been dancing around the target the last couple weeks we will see if they can break through to the upside. in terms of sectors, this is what we have for leadership. we have telco up .50%. banks are also up .50% shedding off the losses from last week. last week's story was the italian banking tax. some of the concerns have been shifted. healthcare is up .40%. one stock is philips and on the flip side is oil and gas which is finally coming off a bit after seeing the nine-month highs pulling back on the oil and gas sector

basic resources is down .20% given the links to china let's tell you what is happenin with philips right at the top of the stoxx 600. philips announced the dutch firm has taken a 15% stake in the company intending to be a long-term shareholder. it stated while it was purchased on the open market, the firms agreed on the price and buy. very good reaction you see today it is up 5%. the company has been held back over the last couple years it looks like a new chapter which is reflected in the stock at the top of the stoxx 600. another stock we are watching closely is the ubs stock we are up .70% trading north of that 20 swiss

francs mark. this after creditors were suing ubs after the buyout of credit suisse a group of 1,000 investors, including former employees, is planning to file a lawsuit as soon as today in zurich. they claimed to have lost month in the takeover. -- lost money in the takeover. the reaction is still positive on friday, they came out with the announcement they will no longer be leaning on the government backstop. since then, we have seen positive reaction to ubs and currencies here. a lot of focus on the yuan with the weakness from china overnight and disappointing loans numbers. yuan continues to weaken against the dollar .20% again, what many are saying in the market is that the authorities have no choice but

to allow the yuan to weaken with the macro weakness on the ground that is the trend which it is moving higher. that is the reason why the dollar trades on the back foot the pound is trading 126 126 126.90 it is a big week for the uk with the numbers coming out this week and we are nine basis points higher with the euro with the data coming out. when you think about currencies, you have to think of it trading over the other what is happening on the dollar leg as people are pricing out rate hikes out of the fed and possibly talks about rate cuts on the back of that, euro is

strengthening over the u.s. dollar. let's go to u.s. futures and look ahead of how the day is shaping up s&p is down. nasdaq is opening up in positive territory after a challenging week last week we had the s&p close down .30% on the week last week. lowest level in over a month tech stocks very much in focus last week. the nasdaq ended down 1.9% today, all signs are pointing to a positive start there is some ground to cover from last week's losses. goldman sachs expects the federal reserve to reduce rates by june of next year and continue at the pace of one p 25-basis points cut per quarter. the fed will be driven by the desire to close normalize the fund rate from the restrictive levels once inflation is closer to target of t

adding it picture expecting to e at 3.35% and this is largely in line with the fed funds futures which is pricing in a cut by may and june it is interesting to see that analysts are coming on to the view of market pricing this time around may be correct. going for that rate cut call my first guest on the show here is the equity strategist for sustainable asset management i have gone through a run of what is happening in the markets. the first question is to what extent are you watching the price action in china and the risk on or risk off move in other asset classes? >> thank you for having me the chinese situation is something to watch particularly

given the relevance to the chinese economy has in the rest of the world this morning, we basically went back to the levels at the beginning of july with the speculation of additional stimulus program started to feed into the market and it materialize. the most important number was the credit starter on a monthly basis came down to a 14-month low if you look at the credit impasse, it dropped to the lowest level of july of 2021 we know that credit is the most important driver of the chinese cycle, but the manufacturing cycle to the large extent globally of the for the european economy, this is a challenge given that the european manufacturing cycle tends to follow the chinese manufacturing cycle with the lag of six-to-nine months this means the challenges in china over the past week with

the government stimulus remaining more or less a challenge for the global economy and markets. here on the cyclical side of the km equity markets. >> is it possible to see the markets outperform in the area where china is so weak >> the european index, i don't think, has potential to puerto rico f-- perform it is cheap and it has valuation, but it is never a good indication for performance in the past in the euro area it is interesting to see earnings are coming back in europe moved back to the highest on the relative basis in mid 2021 this is happening on the back of banks on the one hand and the luxury goods on the other. i wouldn't think the luxury recovery can hold against the back drop of the slowing chinese

cycle. banks need to be seen. there is a structure relationship going on. over the short-term horizon, i think the european economy will face headwinds with china slowing. with this back drop, europe will find it difficult to out perform. >> the other area is the price action in commodities, specifically oil which is scaling a nine-month high. the macro community had been very much focused and rightly so on the month-to-month inflation print. i wonder what could be a surprise to the inflation numbers looking ahead given the pressures we are seeing in the commodities. could we end up in a situation where commodities prices are lifting headline inflation higher at the time growth is starting to weaken >> that is very likely to

happen i think what we see in the u.s. economy in particular is a shift or reversal from the first half of the year where the non-manufacturing side with housing has really driven the recovery and the manufacturing side is soft manufacturing in the u.s. is the driver off the oil crisis in my view with manufacturing trucking to some extent is not expecting a big sustained recovery a bit of a comeback with the pmi in the past week the oil price has received a bit of a lift actually that should translate into inflation numbers going forward. the ppi last week in the u.s. showed to some degree that the bottom has been kind of reached with the headline numbers. i think this should be a bit more momentum in the coming

months on the services side, which is the key focus of the fed over the last few months, i expect to see more of a slowdown in line with the u.s. consumer pulling back a little bit from the strength which we have seen over the past year. >> as i was highlighting at the wall, it is a big week with the inflation data and headline data you are a big fan of the uk equity markets here. why? >> i think that is for us a bit of a combination of different factors. we know the uk equity market is very much an international market not only very little revenue exposure to the uk, but little cost exposure. it has a translating effect from the currency we expect sterling to move lower into next year we think the uk economy, despite the numbers in the second quarter which were quite strong,

we expect the uk economy to slow which should help lift uk equity if we look at valuations the uk market is valued or cheap across all sectors it has a fairly attractive combination of value that is what with we like right now. we are skeptical on growth in tech the sector looks attractive over the long term. it will be one of the strongest performing sectors in the coming years. current valuations don't make sense to us. we think there is room going forward and we prefer value and defenses in the uk particularly because of the currency should provide a lift >> very clear. thank you for articulating your thoughts wolf on rotberg from j.safra

sarasin. it is a big week coming up we have key data points. tomorrow is the chinese industrial output and retail sales. stateside, home depot has the results and preliminary gdp and the latest reading of the uk inflation as well as the minutes from the fed meeting the next central bank reports on thursday and the investors will watch walmart for the end of the week if you want to get involved in the conversation, tweet me i'm @cnbcjou i love to hear your thoughts on the markets and what is happening in china. coming up on the show, low water levels in the key wa waterways spark concerns we will tell you more about that story in a few moments

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signs. ukraine foreign ministry condemned the russian provocative action in the black sea. russian officials boarded the ship for inspection. this is after the grain deal was stopped last month which has pushed grain prices higher 140 ships are halted at the canal. the massive pileup is a result of water conservation measures the panama canal deployed in july due to the drought. in europe, the low water levels at the rhine is causing a concern. arabile has more arabile, to what extent will this have on global trade?

>> authorities at the panama canal said it may not be as big an issue as it was at the suez canal in 2021, but it will be material and impact things significantly. the panama canal is used for retailers like walmart and amazon and target for the winter holidays and trying to bring a lot more cargo to areas in south america or parts of north america as well. plus the asia and u.s. route goes through there 70% of the traffic through the canal originates from the united states or bound for the united states it gives you a clear indication of how significant that is $270 billion of cargo goes through the canal. it limits the reserve bookings for new ships. there were 40 ships a day, but

that has been brought down to 32 ships. 200 million litres of water is needed for one with ship to go by at current levels, it doesn't have enough to do that at current basis. the panama canal gets water from two lakes which is drying up with the el niño effect. high temperatures are ensuring less water is in the canal because of high sense of water coming out of the area 21 days on average is the waiting time for the ships that is a difficulty to get the vessels coming through the water levels are hitting a four-year low. this is the area we are talking about which links the atlantic and pacific ocean. you remember it was key back when it was constructed in 1904. there was a trade route in that

time which is an 82-kilometer trade route that needed to come through to link up the north and south. similar situation out in europe. this is very important because the rhine river is at critical water levels we have seen high temperatures impacting travel so, too, for vessels traveling in and around the rhine. diesel and heating oil and chemicals is all carried to areas in germany which is the engine of europe in many ways. shipments are getting disruption it will cost significantly for people this is the area we are talking about and through the are heart of europe totake a look at hohow much it will impact. quickly, this is how the shipments are looking. maersk is down 30% over the last two years.

impacted from the weather last year and we thought we had gotten past the supply disruption with things getting better, but this will add to that dhl is down 24%, joumanna. >> we are keeping a close eye on the manufacturing numbers in europe which are also beginning to soften as well. the situation like this is not going to help. arabile, thank you for the overview coming up on "street signs," hoping to shake hands on a.r.m more on that after the break ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines fresh fears from china pull equity markets in the red as the chinese economy faces a sharp pullback in new bank loans and country garden suspend trading in bonds europe shrugs off the china concerns as the stoxx 600 looks for direction in early trade

with exor taking a 15% stake in philips. and soft bank is looking to a 25% stake in a.r.m. ahead of the nasdaq listing next month. and republican candidates campaign in iowa over the weekend, but former president trump faces another indictment in the attempt to overturn the 2020 election loss in georgia. we are keeping a close eye on the price action from asia this morning it has been quite the down day lots of red on the screen. hang seng down 1.5%. nikkei as well declining 1.3%. the mood in europe is more positive we are mostly brushing off the concerns you see the dax is up .30% ftse mib is up .40%.

the leading decliner is the ftse 100 in the uk down .20%. no surprise there of the it is the commodities names underperforming. ftse 100 is dragged down by oil and gas and mining names that is the reason for the underperformance the european indexes are shrugs off the asian market concerns. the markets are ss are trading up in positive territory in the u.s. we are dialing back the early gains from the session we were looking to open firmer, but things are coming off a bit. dow off 30 points. nasdaq up 50 after the challenging week last week which saw the tech sector pull back significantly in the u.s

nasdaq down 1.9% on the week last week. another story we are watching closely softbank is in talks to buy the remaining 25% stake in a.r.m. it does not own the deal could deliver strong returns for investors ahead of the planned ipo next month vision fund returned to profit last quarter, but softbank has been struggling to find investors. this is a very important story because vision fund had been invested in uber and it pulled out of that stake some time last year other holdings include wework and the ride-hailing company in china. both reporting significant losses the investors are the main investors. you have uae and saudi pif

the fact softbank wants to buy the last 25% they don't own in a.r.m. is an olive branch. what they are doing is allowing them to crystalize the gains on a.r.m. on the ipo and let them come and participate in future deals. softbank with struggle with the investors and they ended up backing it entirely. perhaps this is one way to keep in on the existing investor base and get involved in more deals a.r.m. is the bright spot of the vision fund portfolio. it has been a strong year for tech stocks fueled from the a.i. rally the nasdaq has slipped 3% in the last 30 days posting the first back-to-back

losses this year nvidia shares just reported their biggest weekly decline in 11 months. of course, still up 180% this year tech giants are betting big on the a.i. revolution with nvidia looking for a strong demand for chips and alibaba says this has only just begun. chris ward is joining me chris, before we launch into the big stock picks, i believe you are also co-manager of the a.i. fund give us an overview of the a.i. fund. >> good morning. thanks for having me a.i. fund we set up in 2017 means we have been doing this quite a while. the a.i. fund has been playing in the global equity funds to invest in the companies depending on the artificial intelligence platforms

it is a global fund which we have been fortunate in being able to demonstrate which can find great ideas across the markets and region where a.i. is more important from the fund manager perspective since 2017, we got deeper and broader and better. that is a lovely place to be the margin is going up for the companies included in the portfolio. >> let's start with the holding. being a fund manager and a.i. fund means you are invested in nvidia that means it has been a great ride and you has been coming off in the last week is all of the positive news priced into the stock? given how it has traded the last couple weeks, the answer may be yes. >> perhaps

a little bit of trouble, certainly, but if you believe a.i. will over-promise and under-deliver, then the stock is expensive at the moment. we, of course, take a different view there is a clear line toward earnings number in the course of the next two or three years in the mid-20s of at that point, that stock looks appropriately valued where we are trading at the moment. if you look back over the course of the last three or four competing cycles, it has been the case with the provider of the technology into the architecture which has taken 70% of the value we think nvidia is likely to be the winner in that respect in the a.i. cycle that we're living through at the moment. that is where you get into the debate of how big the earnings

really could be for nvidia it is worth reflecting because we have never seen anything like this before. these are now $1 trillion market cap companies and growing at this pace. one may associate with that in earlier stage businesses bound up with all of this is not just the run of the mill problem for all investors and trying to understand the capacity might look like, but how we value the stock operating at that scale with that growth and probability attached to it it is not something we have seen before in the near term, we think nvidia doesn't trade around quarte quarters that is not our game we see that in the next two or three years. nvidia is the winning one at the moment >> even with the price ratio of 40 >> that is on the trading basis.

you give me a trading price of that and i'll have an earnings number in the mid-20s and we have a stock trading less than 20 times earnings. that is why the market is struggling with it at the moment and what you are prepared to pay on that $20 or more earnings number is a very interesting discussion which is yet to be resolved for the reasons i mentioned with scale and probability. >> let me take you to another one of the stocks on the list. this was interesting for those not familiar with this, it is the amazon of south america. i am interested to see you put it in your a.i. list why is this name on it >> amazon found the way on the list for the reasons your

viewers associate. things that benefit amazon with the platform and the way they manage the media presence and able to derive significantly more acute insight and respect to the consumers and the way it is different from amazon's fintech platforms of the all of those are features which are artificial intelligence in the way in way they are able to succeed. one of the reasons we like this one more than amazon at the moment is that the market is the spanish of latin america it has benefitted from the markets which has yet to see all of the benefits from ecommerce

pushing into the economy it is an early stage opportunity to play the trends which we see in more developed markets. it has been the case in the last few years where investors are driven to it and it is a concern for a period of time for amazon to move into the latin american markets. we have seen from mercadolibre with an extraordinary ability to protect the market position and continue to grow at a significant rate through those periods. we see upside in the next few years. >> excellent chris, while you were speaking, we put up a hot board with the other names on the list. including axon and iflytek we do appreciate you coming on the show and giving us your top picks in the a.i. space of we will have you back on

chris ford, head of growth equities for more on where the growth opportunities for tech may come from, check out cnbc.com also coming up on "street signs," signs of progress in the hollywood writers strike as the dispute passes 100 days. we will discuss the latest with lord david putnam who is the president of the film associat association. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "street signs. argentina's far right candidate reported a shock win in a primary election shaking up the race ahead of the october general election he won 30% of the vote and wants to get rid of the central bank markets will get the first chance to react at 4:00 p.m. it is a vertical climb it has half in value for the

year inflation is rampant a lot of issues for argentina to deal with. u.s. republican candidates have descended on the iowa state fair ahead of the caucus next year former president trump has a 40% lead over ron desantis before the debates next month this as the legal troubles mount for a fourth indicindictment ali raffa has the story. >> reporter: any chance of a plea deal? >> reporter: former president trump campaigning in iowa and and unfazed on the fourth inn

indictment in georgia with the grand jury stating he broke the law to force officials to overturn the election results. >> i want to find 11,780 votes >> reporter: trump lashing out two people central to the probe confirmed they have been called to appear tuesday before the grand jury >> saturday afternoon, i received a phone call from the d.a. office from the investor sa investigators satating i should come in. >> reporter: this was a meeting on december 14th. >> i walked in with cameras blazing and escorted out of the room i was told it was an education meeting which is very apparently now not what was happening there. >> reporter: trump is not the only one in deputy

legal experts say prosecutors may use a crime law to charge more than a dozen allies >> they don't want to take the risk of going to jail for five years and they may flip. thewriters guild of americ is proposing a new agreement to end the more than 100 day strike after talks this weekend with. -- weekend it will respond to pay and residuals and rules of a.i. used in the industry. i'm happy to see tanya is joining me on set. great to have company on set. >> you are doing brilliantly >> talk to me about the hollywood strikes. they have been going for more than 100 days. it seems like we're approaching the end of it? >> could be some progress. as you said, over100 days. these are strikes that are

impacting the industry worldwide. all of the scripted film and television production which has not happened since 1960. we are joined by lord david puttnam which is head of the film association and chair of the education. lord puttnam, welcome this morning. >> great, tanya, ho how are you? >> great the strikes have not been seen since the 1960s. what is the impact and do you see any resolution in sight? >> i think a series of impacts first of all, we have to put a difference with the salaries and residuals and the effects of a.i. in terms of money, i'm sure you

can get together that is not the issue. residuals is an issue. i'm in west cork and i'm able to spend 24 years and i had residuals on five of my movies take that away from me and not only is the properducer insecur which is a fundamental issue i think a.i. issue is fasci fasci fascinating. i can offer something. i was a specialist at a trial and i think it was in '84 where the peter sellers estate with the images with "pink panther. he died and mgm put the outtakes with the movie mgm lost that case quite rightly. that is a telling case where people look back to the mid '80s

with the a.i. solution is going to play out. if i were a young lawyer, i would look at that case and say could this be a precedent? >> lord puttnam, they are looking for regulation for a.i do you think that will happen? they are worried about losing their jobs >> they are worried about the employment and they are worrying something which is illegal the misuse of your or my or any image in a situation which we have not granted permission or adequately paid. s>> do you think, though, the studios will give in of course, at the moment, all scripted film and television production has come to a halt there. what is the wider impact here in the uk

>> i think -- first, uk has been impacted it is a global production center and a lot of work has ground to a halt it is impacted not so much in terms of the non wga writers or actors. it is a small issue taken place. seriously, in every respect, and it will begin to show the product throw in the early part of next year this is going through a series of earthquakes the last three weeks with "barbie" and "oppenheimer" taking 50% of global revenue that rewrites the rules of the distribution you have to go back to the drawing board and see what you are going to do of what you produce and how you market it.

this is an industry in a level of transition. let me say one thing, i lived through one or two transitions in 1968 which was related to content and then another one in the '80s with distribution the industry deals with these shocks this is where i started. i came from those issues and it survived i think the a.i. issue is a lawyer's paradise of that has to be resolved. it cannot be a fix that is a big issue. residuals are tough. salaries are no question to come to resolution. >> lord puttnam, it is encouraging you have a positive outlook. i want to go back to an issue which is the concept of residuals. i wonder how that is impacted with the rise of streamers

there is less transparency about how often the actors' movies are played or writers words are used what is the solution here? >> joumanna, you are being kind. there is no transparency that has to also be sorted you know, this is not brain surgery. at the end of the day, you are in front of the camera i spent my life behind the camera i spent my life as a freelance person when i succeed, several of my movies were received well. i expect to get a reasonable cut on the back end of the filaml film i think most of them thought they would get bought and the amount of money would be significantly higher if they

owned all their rights i don't think you can say this with the simysimilar situation residuals will get sorted. a.i. will be the lawyer's paradise >> finally, lord puttnam, we had an incredibly stellar career with oscars and baftas and golden globes. what are you most proud of so far? >> i think the work in education, tanya, i'm proud of i'm still doing it the industry has grown in the 40 or 50 years i've been in it. i don't think the attitudes of training and skills has moved as quickly as everything else we will move into the immersive entertainment is huge. interactive. moving of games into the owe

entertainment. i don't think we have caught on to the fact which we need to invest in the future i'm proud of the role i played i do urge the industry to get its act together and it has the world trainingre-skilling. >> thank you, lord puttnam oscar win wning film pracoducer tanya, thank you for joining me on set a quick look at u.s. futures before we head out it is tilting toward more green. the negative hand over from asia i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters here is your top "five@5." goldman sachs predicting when jay powell and the central bank may reverse course on the rate tightening cycle china hitting another speed bump shares of real estate are plunging dealing for a fight. u.s. steel rejecting $7 billion takeover calling