maybe that changes the fed story a little bit i think for some reason there's a negative real gdp number in the first quarter, that's going to get the chatter going, as well but remember, we had two negative quarters last week. >> tune in to see, 6:00 p.m., "taking stock," mike is grooingt break down that market action. that's going to do it for us at "overtime. >> "fast money" is now. melt that's major move higher the stock popping on a better than expected forecast. plus, microsoft's full throttle move into artificial intelligence getting investors all fired up the stock surging and helping to boost tech names we have a deep dive just minutes away. and then, first republic ferocious fade the stock tumbling another 30% today. in february, the stock was worth $26 billion and today -- just a billion. a look at what happens next. and chi pot late's day after

burrito blowout keeps on going oil's big slide and tesla loses one of its wall street polls i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, tim, karen, steve, and guy in the house. we start with an earnings alert on meta. posting better than expected revenue for the latest quarter the conference is just getting under way. julia boors rse tin's got the lt on the numbers >> meta growing by 3% on the quarter, rather than the 1% decline that analysts anticipated. this is its first quarter of year over year growth after three quarters of revenue decline. the company also growing its user base faster than antic anticipated, and bringing down the top end of this 2023 expense guidance range i spoke to meta's cfe susan lee, she told me they are seeing improvement in the broader ad market, though there is still a lot of macro volatility.

she also said they've been investing a lot in improving the performance of their ads over time in this quarter , they are seein those investments pay off. i asked her about reels, and said consumers shifting over to reels continues to be an overall headwind to revenue. they expect reels to be revenue neutral or a tailwind to growth by early next year and in light of the operating losses for the metaverse, she said their long-term ambition around the metaverse is unchanged. so, meta shares are currently up about 11.5% in afterhours trading, and the call is starting right now melissa? >> keep us posted. julia borse tin, thank you much better than expected. karen, you are noting really across the board, particularly when it comes to ad avenue, europe was enormous. >> on every category -- >> what does that stand for? >> i don't know. what is it >> i believe it's average

revenue per user >> nicely. >> talking lingo here. >> we were talking asia, i mean, just across the board, revenue, obviously, really important, but we're in the year of efficiency. if you can have revenue growth and run your business better, obviously great things happen to the bottom line. one interesting point julia just touched on was the cap-x top end of the number was a little lighter, and that might include restructuring, where the street i'm shot sure includes that, so, that could be even lower, adding to the cash flow story, or ongoing cash flow story. a lot to love here >> yeah. tim? >> top line versus bottom line is always a question in tech companies, and, you know, but what they did here in terms of their top line is very important. and it is also -- think about how long ago, now it seems like such a long time ago that the apple privacy issue was going to be, as facebook said, a $10 billion revenue hit. well, here's ai again, and again, ai investments have meant

much better roi forred a verve trizers. it's been driving incremental ads to this platform, in a period when advertisers are pulling back so, again, they're doing whatever they can do, and it's just very interesting. it used to be a cost-cutting, bottom line story, and that's what got us through the last three quarters but they're really growing and while profits are still down 24%, this was them getting to the other side of the story. remember, they had a top line problem and a bottom line problem. they have now kind of addressed them both, but this top line is what everybody wanted to hear. >> go back to february '22 when the stock was cascading lower, so, left some gaps in the chart. carter worth has talked about this 258 will get us to fill that gap. it's interesting how we have forgotten about the metaverse. just throwing it out there first quarter metaverse division, $340 million in revenue. street was looking for north of $600 million operating loss of $4 billion i mean, it is -- it's just an

alba albatross. the fact they don't talk about it is giving the stock, in the year of -- >> year of efficiency. >> that's -- and deservedly are here, but there comes a point where you pull the rip cord. probably comes in at 258 >> digital ad business has stabilized, ios concerns basically fading, and when you look at the stock as a whole, no one knows what the metaverse is still. so, you have artificial intelligence that you should be getting a premium for, they're not getting any premium for that the stock is right at resistance has to move itself >> you're questioning, too, where we are in the stock? >> yeah. >> despite all these things -- >> it's up 75% year to date, so, now it's -- >> yeah, but i mean -- >> it's proved itself. >> people say it's up whatever percent from this really, really low bottom, some would argue that it never should have been at that level. >> it never should have been, but we all remember when we were talking about this, we had d.c.

against it, everything, he was the poster child for everything that everyone hated on capitol hill and at this point, that seems to be fading somewhat to the background >> to me, some of this is -- think of the market that we're in we're in a market where companies are rewarded for free cash flow and delivering and facebook, let's not call it metaverse, guy said it was an alba albatross. >> $4 billion. >> this is a money machine this is an atm this is a cash flow machine, if you control the expenses i'll wait to hear what they talk about with expenses. that could be something that still drags this company down in the aftermarket. and i mean drags them down, relative finding some places to get frustrated, because the story can't always be so great they still have a big buy-back out there, too, and i'll be interested to hear about that. those are the things that are driving stocks to outperform in today's market versus a year and a half ago, and i think they are still that stock >> daily active users also up, you know, 2.3%, which isn't

selling a lot, but when you are on a base of 2 billion, right, it's still growth -- >> guy is finally on the platform >> i'm always on the facebook. >> jumping the shark, then >> how are you getting on? dialup, aol? >> actually have it on my apple application device here. >> good luck with that >> a lot can happen on the conference call, particularly with meta. the minute they mention expenses, but the minute this time they mention more year of the efficiency measures, they sprinkle in a little bit of ai -- >> yes, efficiency and ai -- >> and a little bit of momentum, ad market's not as bad and boom, in this market environment, i mean, don't discount also the flight to safety we're going to talk about first republic and its 30% decline today -- >> that's what we saw in microsoft last night and microsoft quarter was fine nothing not to like about it things are decelerating, which is normal. we pointed out the valuation is accessible maybe that makes sense here. people are willing to pay more

for perceived stability in these companies. maybe facebook is one of those companies now. >> and those companies that are most rewarded, so, microsoft and facebook here, but really have ai investments that are paying off. there's no question. they're not just sprinkling ai pixie dust that's helping to drive engagement, which is what advertisers can point to and offset what they were concerned about with the apple so, to the extent that ai is pixie dust everybody was talking about dropping a block -- a block chain or some kind of a reference -- >> but they are the only ones making any money, or monetizing ai at all, to your point >> yeah. >> no, no. >> i don't agree with that at all. >> who is monetizing that? >> google has -- >> yeah -- >> in the background -- >> exactly and so, it's important in every product they have and if they called it pixie dust, maybe they would get a valuation for it, but they're not seeming to

microsoft did a way better job on the call being super excited about all their ai, and -- but a lot of companies, not just google, many companies have had ai and i don't understand how it gets one valuation -- i don't know, microsoft just doing a better job of cheerleading the ai >> facebook is now more expensive than google, so, i mean, for karen, i don't know -- the value girl, i mean, you could make an argument that google is actually never been this cheap, relative to -- >> from melt that that ai recommendations have increased time spent on instagram, to your point, by 24%. >> yep >> so, that's the big figure we're going to talk a lot about ai later in the show. let's get more on meta's results from gene munster, managing partner of deepwater asset management what are the things you want to know on this call? >> i want to actually hear about what's happened, hasn't hit the trajectory of the traders here, but this is a massive asset.

they're starting to do direct messaging for businesses to consumers, and as an investor in meta, this is an opportunity, i think, could add 10%, 15% to the overall revenue in the next few years, so, that's one piece. i want to focus in, i think that's an area that people are not going to be talking much about. also, as long-term investors want to just continue to hear their views on their trajectory of their daus and just want to underscore, karen mentioned a number, i had a fractionally different number on the dau growth, just point this out, i think it was 4% year over year, that's up from 3.7% in the december quarter, and 2.5% or 2% back in june last year four consecutive quarters of increasing dau growth. i know those are small numbers, but the base is massive. 2 billion. that's 35% of the active internet users are on a meta product every day. and that is addictive products

and those -- maintaining that, at the end of the day, the whole story, what holds it all together is those dau numbers. and you do hit a top end at some point, when you get all the people, but that's another piece i want to kind of dial into and it will be fun to do another thing, the metaverse count disappeared from their december earnings call. we'll see if mark talks about it tonight. >> so, what are the magic words, ai and what else are the -- and efficiency is that what you're looking for? >> yeah. >> has that sort of played out, as well? >> ai is always -- don't want to overlook that toy department, because, you know, they'll be talking about that and creating content that different reels users will use to create content. that will be a topic on the call you know, as far as, you know, the other key factors here, the year of efficiency, just one thought on that, as well

i'm sure there's going to be a lot of talk on this. i think we have one more quarter where wall street is going to be focusing in on this. our view is that's going to be largely priced in within a quarter. and we're going to have to get back to the focus on growth. and next year, the street's looking for 11% growth, they are not going to give this on the call, but i suspect tomorrow, analysts are going to be bumping that up to 15% below where they were prepandemic in the mid 20% growth, but that 15% is a stable number, sleep well at night. and i think we'll get some just generally optimistic commentary about just the strength of the platform that can drive that longer, more stable revenue growth >> gene, hypothetically, if they walked away from -- $4 billion loss this quarter, which is not insignificant, off a base of $340 million of revenues they say, you know what, we gave it a shot. would the stock be rewarded for that >> i think it would be rewarded. i actually did the math on it this quarter they reported 220.

if they wouldn't have had reality labs, it would have been 2 340. i think the stock would probably get 20% of that, some people would be disappointed that they're kind of giving up and they're not as innovative, so, they wouldn't get that full benefit. so, the multiple would actually come down, i think, if they exited the metaverse i still think it's the right thing to do. i just published a piece, everybody is talking about ai, don't forget about the metaverse. apple is going to be entering this phase probably in the summer, and i think we'll look back five years, it's going to take time, but we will look back five years and there will be some redemption for zuckerberg on the topic >> all right, gene, let us know if you hear anything good on the conference call, raise your hand we'll talk to you later on >> will do >> interesting you mentioned -- they would have to change their name >> back. >> back. but -- >> i kind of feel like they have thrown it out. i mean, they have thrown it. they've stopped talking about it and he was never going to walk

away and acknowledge this, but a year ago, the whole point was, if this company just focused on cutting expenses and focused on the cash flow they generate, it would have a massive rally they've had different excuses for how they could just focus on expenses they've had the mack kro environment, they've had a bunch of different things. no one's needed to push them on the metaverse. i don't think they're going to push themselves on it. >> that's going to be up though. if gene is right, that's going to be up in the quarter. and then they're going to have to answer for $4 billion in losses each quarter. let's say that's the same. it actually increased quarter on quarter, right so, let's say that's the same. is that okay with you? >> i think it's okay it's way down from where it could have been and the rest of their business is doing a lot better so, if you put those things together, and they've been very aggressive on reductions in force, so, it's not like they are just giving it lip service they are, in fact, more efficient. >> is the metaverse ai

does it have aspects of -- are they two different things? do we know that? >> i think they are. >> i think they're different things >> they are two different things but there's probably threads that run through each. >> absolutely. >> later on, yeah. >> i think probably start getting paid on that, which is what we're all saying, and if they back out, they'll call it the meta-reverse >> oh, set that up nicely. >> asked the question when he really didn't need what the answer was >> don't know what's going on right now. >> got me. >> all right. coming up, more on the first republic fallout shares dropping 30% today. one of our traders says time is ticking for the bank why this weekend could be the last stand. plus, a pharma flub. the group in the red today after an early spring surge. so, what can give the sector a boost? we'll debate that when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. first republic's plunge deepening today as it hunts for a rescue plan. bloomberg reporting the bank could have act scess to the fed lending window curbed. it is down 60%, 6-0, since reporting earnings on monday

can they survive this downward spiral karen, you were saying the calendar has days on it -- >> literally days on it. certainly at this rate you know, any -- i don't understand what's happening here in that they've known for awhile they need to do something. is it that no one is there is it -- i mean, how does news leak out i can't help but think it's very chaotic there. and i'm sort of thinking of this blazing saddles. the guy holds the gun to his head, i'll do it, i'll do it >> he's crazy enough to do it. >> there's a bit of that going on i don't know if this fed thing coming out was them trying to force whoever it is in a consortium for buyers for stock to get going, otherwise the problem is going to be worse i really believe that. if they go -- if they don't find a solution here. so i -- i mean, but they do not have a lot of time left. and i'm not even sure what would be left. >> so, i -- >> by the way, she just gave the

one quote in the movie of blazing saddled that wouldn't get us canceled. it's just -- >> okay, so -- >> i have a question here in terms of the cost to the banking system or the cost to the performance of other stocks in the banking system >> uh-huh. >> would that hurt other bank stocks if frc went under >> i think it would a little bit. >> why >> because the fdic would say, we have to do something. so, regulation, talk about regulation had cooled off a little bit in the last two, three weeks. a little less urgent and i think if they were to have to insure deposits again, and, you know, then i think they would say, okay, we really have to have a different kind of structure here, and that would be bad for regionals, for sure, to termly for money, you know, systemically important financial institutions, and i think that same phenomenal, deposits move again. i just don't think it would

be -- i don't think it would be good for anything. also, i do think there's a little bit of -- first republic is a beloved franchise i love -- i love the product but -- and i think that's helped them a little bit. you know, if you remember, bear sterns, long-term capital, they didn't help out. when they were in trouble, the rest of the street said, too bad. i think first republic does have some friends on wall street who do want to help them i don't know why it's taking this long. >> why would they buy some of their book and immediate loss. >> if they come some sort of warrants, some pass from the fed, something you can imagine them crafting something that would allow them and a little bit of an extend and pretend. >> brooklyn dodgers were beloved, they moved, people found something else the life blood of this economy is small business, right they employ 7 0% of all people the life blood of small business, regional banks people have to say, you know what, why do i have to be in the regional banks i want the security of a larger

bank the larger banks aren't going to necessarily serve small business, because it doesn't make sense what's the trickle down? it's not going to happen tomorrow, but you have to start connecting dots and say, this is not good for the economy overall. >> this is the last stand. we need to prop frc up to save the regional banking system. >> mixed signals, though it's -- i'm glad karen used the analogy of bear sterns this one, some fail, some are existing, so -- we have no closure. so, the market can't move on until there's something firm we don't have that yet >> you know, couple things are interesting to me. first of which is, the new york mets came out of the brooklyn dodgers. >> that's exactly my point >> huge positives can come out of negative things but most of the street, it seems like happy analysts on the street that have covered this stock have gone to not rated, because they can't make a call on this. i just say that to folks at

home i'm not sure you have any idea what you can do, and analysts who have been following this company for years -- >> if you are in kre -- >> when was up today >> which did fine, so -- is that -- is that the question the question is, how does your bank holding do in the light of an frc failure >> as a depositor or holder of stock? >> investor. >> i think it's a negative there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. pharma stocks ailing today, as the group lags the market in a big way. so, what's the right prescription for this trade? plus, the ai war is heating up and two big players in the space are taking very different approaches so, who will come out on top in the battle of the bots you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. buzz kill on pharma stocks moderna, merck, some of the names under pressure today, all dropping 2% plus ahead of a big day for farpharma earnings. i'm going to read this sentence. >> read it >> what's the prognosis for -- >> you didn't do that. is that in the teleprompter? >> that's what it says it's slightly amusing. so, what's the deal here ahead of earnings -- >> well, there's a prescription -- >> nice. >> no, i think -- >> well played >> this is -- i think what's -- in my opinion, eli lilly,

all-time high yesterday. they've had tremendous runs. my sense is, people taking money off ahead of earnings. if you go back historically, a lot of times, it's rallying earnings so off-post, people are running that i have no idea in terms of a group, i think you still earn these stocks. i'm not saying they're bullet proof in this environment. i think valuations are a little bit rich i think you want to stay with those. >> karen >> yeah, i mean, this is anything in particular i think we saw some government thing and, you know, talking about drug prices. i think guy is right it's just maybe a rotation in front of earnings. however, these have been good for the portfolio, side effects do exist, though, as we know some people suffer drawdowns, but -- >> wow >> but i still like the space. >> wow >> you know, all the things that made it good, which were valuation and yield, which i don't normally love, but i don't think -- i mean, that's all

right, if people want to rotate out, i'm not going to trade around that. >> yeah, i -- i think ishgs in t in the case of a handful of them, it's been a heroic run look at united health, look at some of the stocks that have been very defensive and places to hide out. pfizer is a name i became long somewhere in the last six weeks, eight weeks, and i -- it's been a tough eight weeks, it's not been devastating, but as you said, that move in pfizer is near the bottom of a range that it hasn't traded in in awhile, and this is a company that was one of the covid darlings. they need to prove that they've got a pipeline, they made major investments. and with a lot of big cap pharma, it's about, your pipeline what have you invested in? i think all of the companies are paying handsome divs and are paying their growout ratios. coming up, who is going to win the battle of the bots microsoft and google coming at the ai wars with very different

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welcome back to "fast money. a check on how markets closed out the day. continued concerns about first republic outweigh ing gains from tech the s&p down, the nasdaq the only major index to close out with gains, but still well all the highs of the day shares of tesla dropping more than 4%. analysts over at jeffries downgrading the stock to a hold from a buy, cutting their price target by nearly 20% crude oil lower, down more than 3.5% for its lowest settle of the month. and shares of uri dropping afterhours on its earnings report posting better than expected revenue, however. meantime, alphabet and microsoft both dug deep into ai last night both laid out plans to tackle the company, their approaches seem to be taking very differently by the markets steve kovach digs into the key

takeaways. >> yeah, melissa, the key takeaway, both companies are heading in the same direction, but microsoft still has the lead that's especially true when it comes to monetizing these ai products micr microsoft's ceo saying on the call last night, the company will charge extra to use ai features in apps like teams and outlook. this is the co-pilot product that can do things like summarize a teams meeting you missed microsoft is testing co-pilot with some of its office customers, but nahe wouldn't gie how much it would cost and charging for usage of azure cloud to run ai-powered apps by chatgpt. butt alphabet was far less specific on when google's ai products would launch, let alone how they would even make money we know ai is coming to google search and some services like gmail and we may get even more

at google's event for developers next month he said, quote, we'll continue to incorporate generative ai advances to make search better in a thoughtful and deliberate way. so, that's the lesson there. deliberate and thoughtfulness from google, and just, hey, we're going to make money on this from microsoft. >> steve, thank you. and -- hence the stock reaction. there we have it but do you think, karen, that they have up their sleeve how exactly they will monetize it, but just not sharing it, or do they not quite know yet? >> i think there is monetization already, so, for example, google reverse image search, right? that uses ai that's in their search product so, i think -- i mean, the tone was very, very different we have nothing close to specifics. he didn't sound that excited about it, which i'm surprised. sort of seems to be making the mistake again and again. but i don't know, maybe he's just playing the long game and, you know, the race is on

i -- it's a little bit frustrating, because i feel like this term ai is literally treated like pixie dust and microsoft is doing a much better job. >> it's a very nonspecific, right, in terms of the areas that it hits, it's small, it's particles, they might float. for google, they say, we've got it, it's in all sorts of of products here, but for microsoft, it seems much more tangible, because we're going to charge money for this, we're going to charge money for that, and it's here. it's not dust. it's actual -- i don't know, material >> tangible. >> right >> and it's possibly monetized and when you look at microsoft, 10%, 20% monetization? and it all stems back to google with that awful experiment or release or whatever that was called that was so non- non-go non-googlesque that's still in the back of everybody's mind >> it is microsoft, when they looked back, filled with mistakes, as

well, but they are just doing a much better job of being excited about it the rest of their business is really doing well, microsoft, so -- i don't know, it sounds like, you know, they're just all cylinders. >> let's get more from brent winton, the chief futurist at the firm great to have you with us. great to have a futurist on, we're usually so focused on the here and now so, we're focused on what happened in terms of microsoft and alphabet i'm wondering your take. the wall street take is that microsoft is in the lead what's the futurist take >> i think microsoft is more in the lead, and this is a platform transition, and typically in platform transitions, the companies that you're looking at aren't the companies that actually win if you go back to when, you know, the pc arose, imagine you would see that the pc was going to be a revolutionary device, you might have been long ibm you would have been totally wrong. during the internet age, bill

gates saw the internet coming, and they lost. they missed out. they lost to google, they lost to yahoo! even, and they lost to facebook and so, here we are, approaching this event horizon that is ai and google has all of the aial innocent the world, hey, they've just restructured the ai division, so, it's part of their core team, and they are not stru structurally set up to benefit from it and it's reflecting in the results today, but i think over the coming months and years, it's actually going to become more profound they have a lot to lose in core search, and they haven't really figured out how to respond to large models that are going to change that business product >> so, in my notes, it has you you believe there are other ways to play ai, you name tesla, caterpillar, and deere and so i'm wondering why you think these, you know, you might not necessarily think about caterpillar and deere immediately when you think about

ai, but why would you say that these are other ways -- are they better ways to play than a microsoft and google it doesn't seem like you can say that caterpillar and deere can monetize in such a deliberate way. >> it's more like, do you want to be trying to pick the winner between two companies that are going to try to tear each other apart, or would you ramenter look at companies that have assets in the field that others can't duplicate or replace, that they will be able to deliver ai software against to improve the financial characteristics of those assets in the case of tesla, it's really simple. they have the largest deployed fleet of robots in the world if they can turn those cars they have on the road today into robo-taxis, they turn those into assets that generate ongoing operating earnings year after year after year, as they operate

as robo-taxis. and you're not being intellectually honest if you don't believe that the odds of that being successful in tesla isn't improved now relative to where it was a year ago, given how fast ai is accelerating. so, there are other more defensible plays on the acceleration in ai than the megacap tech companies that are all teetering on the brink of a platform transition. >> brett, it's tim, thank you for joining us it sounds to me there's an evolution here that's not dissimilar from what we've seen in the financial industry. where fintech, a lot of companies claim they are players, but if you look at the megacap banks, they're as fintech as anybody when i hear at an ai strategy, it's like, everyone's in the cloud. doesn't it seem like every business is going to incorporate ai some better than others. but that -- i bring it back to

microsoft, microsoft putting it in office 365 products right now, maybe they can monetize it, buzz it's as software company, they charge for their services, are they going to break it out separately they're probably keeping it and making it a vital part of office 365 so they can keep pricing where it is. >> yeah, the difference, or, the similarity that you're identifying is that microsoft is already charging for a product and that product will become a lot more useful to users, so they'll be able to charge more it's the same with cat pill already and tesla. they have already charged for a product and suddenly that product is going to become a lot more useful because of ai, so, you can look across the landscape, both at the companies that are helping all of these companies generate ai models that they can deploy against their assets, and you can look at the companies that have that distribution, that have those assets and so, in microsoft's case, their bill offiion office users

be more productive google does not directly charge users, and may be impaired as ai models deliver answers rather than deliver customers to additional wea al websites. they are really vulnerable here. that's why i think the quarterly results are one thing. the two or three structural results look much more dire for google they haven't figured out how to respond. if you are six months behind in ai, that's the equivalent of being two years behind in traditional technology >> i'm just curious, brett, is cat or deere held in any of the ark eft? >> yes, they are within our etfs, we have our flagship portfolio, we also have portfolios that focus on robotics and automation space and other specific protocols and across all of our companies

right now, the primary question we're asking is, how is this company going to enable, deploy, or take advantage of the acceleration in ai, because it's going to challenge every sector. >> brett, great to speak to you, thank you. brett winton speaking of microsoft, don't miss the ceo of activision tomorrow. coming up on "fast money," the burrito blowout continues. we just like saying it chipotle shares soaring you so, can the good times last? and earnings from meta, shares are surging in the afterhours session, up 11% details from the conference call when "fast money" return us. >> back end of the show.his is r ♪ rebecca is there when you feel not so hot. ♪ ♪ this is larissa, who's feeling glown up. ♪ ♪ and this here is winnie, who zhuzhed up their cup. ♪ ♪ this is victoria, helping women stay healthy. ♪ ♪ these are your kids, snacking snacks ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. chipotle shares surging today. the stock's gains accelerating after yesterday's big earnings report shares skyrocketing to a fresh high nick setyan is on the "fast" line he says the stock could hit $2,200 in the next year. nick, great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me >> aside from costs coming in,

what are some of the other levers that you are factoring into the model >> well, you know, what we saw is a big transaction growth beat so, the comp was a beat, but it was lead by transactions, so, yeah, the expectation was 1.5% transaction growth in q-1. similar transaction growth in q-2 and they are talking about 4% transaction growth. and trends have continued into april when the fast casual data and along with the full service data in april has fallen off a cliff. so, there were a lot of worries that going into april, you know, trends may not have held up. and not only did they hold up, but there was a big, big transaction-led beat >> so, if transactions are -- i mean, who are they stealing from where is this increase -- where does this extra dollar come from >> yeah, i think there's a big tradedown from full service. and, you know, not only do they talk about, you know, the higher

income cohort, seeing higher frequency from the higher income cohort, but they have talked about a slowdown in the lower income cohort in the second half of '22, and what they said is that that lower income cohort, they saw the frequency, you know, go up in q-1 and it's held up, you know, so far in april, so, there's a big tradedown, you know, going on, i think they're stealing share from not only independents in the fast casual and full service, but also some chains. and also, you know, i thin across qsr, with exception of mcdonald's, their analysis saw negative transactions, as well >> all right, nick, great to get your take, thank you nick setyan. guy? >> interesting i mean, look, i think it's the right time to take province in the stock. traded five, six times normal volume i love the company it's a name we've liked. but it's run a lot and it's

going to come down to some semblance of reality but remember jim osmond on the show, and he talked about spin-offs. remember, this was in '06, i think, a spin-off out of mcdonald's and people just sort of discarded it. we probably did, as well but there's value in that. i bring it up because j&j is about to do similar. something to keep in mind. >> yeah. so, they hit on everything transactions were up, trance action prices were up. margins were up, i think they jumped from 20% to 25% and that was on the back -- i think they accredited avocado pricing went down. but where -- so, i think -- i don't know if i would have -- i probably, you know, would have sold this stock, i wouldn't have expected it to rally like this, i would have sold it ahead of earnings, but what's the real story here is it growing the scale? i think opening up new stores, so, those are catalysts that are probably still out there is the stock is way too high, i wouldn't dabble in it now, but it's incredible. >> if you believe that there's a

tradedown happening across retail, across restaurants, and that's where they're getting their share from, then why not >> for now >> for now, yeah >> and i think there is, and they talked about it and they talked about the frequency of the more affluent diner, whatever we're calling the person that walks into cmg what do we call you? >> a human being i don't know, hungry smart? >> but let's get back to the analysis, so what you hear from the analyst community is, they're raising their prices based upon an addressable market size a lot of them actually base it upon what they think the percentage of the addressable market they can get. i think that addressable market -- you have to tell me, in this environment, where they've been able to raise prices 25% over the last couple years and other people have priced down -- i think this is as good as it gets but i've said this before. i've been wrong. >> yeah. karen? >> same. i -- you know, i -- i haven't liked it, it's just always been so expensive, but

extraordinarily good at running an efficient, incredible business with huge growth. i -- i feel like it keeps happening and -- >> nice yogi >> yet, and here we are. is there a lot more to come on this tradedown trade >> right, if you believe it's happening, that's why you like walmart and that's why you like mcdonald's or whatever other restaurant or place you like, then why not here? >> well, every once in awhile, we see they miss and then, so, they miss whatever the amount of the miss is, times the multiple contraction, and that becomes a big hit, but you've been right to stay in it all the way. i've missed hundreds of points >> all right, we've got a news alert here on the debt limit vote contessa brewer has the details. >> well, the republicans have passed it in the house this is mccarthy's plan to lift the debt limit bill 1.5 trillion, but that extension would expire in march of next year it's part of his plan to try to get the democrats and the president to come to the table and negotiate spending cuts.

this now goes to the senate, which, of course, democrats control. there is very little chance this would pass through the senate, and even if it were to, the promi president has promised to veto it this is mccarthy's move, saying, we have done our job to raise the debt limit here by $1.5 trillion and in return, we want some spending cuts >> all right, contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. and this is another thing looming on wall street's plate tax receipts were down >> down. which means this moves forward >> yeah, and we've been concerned about it collectively, rightly so i don't think the market has priced it in at all. i think they're going to push it to the limit mccarthy can get all the votes he wants it still has to pass muster, and i think democrats feel like they've being held hostage i say that, because i watched "squawk box" this morning and one of the gentlemen said exactly that there's more chapters left in this. coming up, all the headlines from the meta conference call. plus, amazon tomorrow.

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let's get another check on shares of meta gene munster has been on the conference call. he's back with the latest. gene >> melissa, one thing we didn't hear much details on was a.i., zuckerberg said it's going to be in the fabric all of their products stay tuned for details in future calls. we heard about reels and the monetization gap that's critical. this is the tiktok competitor. they expect it to be neutral to revenue late this year, early next year. most investors were expecting it mid next year, so, that's a positive >> all right, gene, thank you for that gene munster. meantime, amazon is on deck tos report after the bell tomorrow the tech titan had a huge day in the options market kevin kelly's got the action kevin? >> hi, melissa off the heels of microsoft, you saw the earlier in the day 1.8 times the amount of calls versus puts, but it ended the day

around 1.15 times, and you're seeing the implied move into earnings is about 8% of the stock, and that's around the average it's had, but this morning, what was interesting is that -- 8,000 of the june $115 calls, at about 2.5% of the underlying they spent about $2.70 apiece, and so, they think amazon is going to do very well into the summer months, even, so, they're going long and going very prime into the earnings. >> kevin, thank you. kevin kelly. for more options, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade tim? >> good pharma discussion tonight. how about a pharma company that is a consumer products company and a medical devices company and a bunch of other things? j&j. >> karen >> yeah. i'm very much in the same camp as tim pharma, i like the space pfizer is overdone >> nice. >> steve >> on the back of microsoft, i think you're going to see a runup in amazon into earnings.

>> guy >> saw a lot of paisley out there in times square. a seasonal thing >> really? >> i don't wear it myself, but it works for some people dgx, they report tomorrow morning after the report, i think you buy the stock. >> tim and i will see you on " welcome to this cnbc special. jim cramer is off tonight. a mixed picture on wall street. a bright spot as they get the tech results, regional banks become front and center as shares continue to get hammered. plus, meta on the move following be by m