hall talking about people coming back to the office the ceo sacrificed the celebration of an employee who had to sell their dog to go back to work. >> i'm a dog lover i would not want togive them u for anything in fact, i work to pay for them. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with the battle for ai supremacy. alphabet announcing what some are calling a major reshuffling as it races to fend off microsoft and others our tech reporter steve kovak joining us with the latest

>> reporter: the headline here google is taking ai research groups and merging them under a new organization called google deep mine. deep mine has done some of the most impressive work in ai even before we were geeking out about chatgpt. google has a long history of separate groups working on competing projects they're merging together with more organization. google brain's leader will focus on research while deep mine will be ceo focusing on ai products they're optimistic the company will get it right. here's what he said on "60 minutes. >> do you think society is prepared for what's coming >> on one hand i feel no because the pace of which we can think and adapt, compared to the pace at which technology is evolving,

there seems to be a mismatch compared to any other technology, i've seen more people worried about it earlier in its life cycle. >> reporter: what we're hearing google and microsoft ask for regulations, it's clearly obvious they'll develop ai as a rapid pace no matter what. >> the competition fierce too. it's also meta and everybody else. >> reporter: alibaba and everybody else tons of start-ups too. they'll use open ai to inform what they do everyone is going after this including the biggest companies in the world. >> seems to be a major move. how much market share lead does alphabet have in search over the others we hear about the huge advantage they have. what's the actual numbers? >> reporter: just 93% or so according to the latest data

guess where bing sits on that? just 3%. google, the fact they're making these moves, shows they think microsoft can eat into that market share microsoft is selling bing to advertisers. >> interesting steve, thank you big announcement a short time ago. let's bring in alex now with big technology and malcolm of cic wealth malcolm, you first it was skjust a few days back a an alphabet shareholder you were going to sell because you thought the company was weak on ai and ceding too much ground to microsoft and others. >> yes, and i would say the market agrees with me.

this was meant to be a monumental announcement. we're merging our two biggest ai labs the market responded with a big old yawn i think the market is confirming what i was concerned about which is that either way alphabet is going to lose this chatbot war whether it's they're distracted from years trying to compete with whatever microsoft is doing or they end up bleeding tens of billions of dollars to win it. as a share howholdershareholdere how this is a winning bet. >> you're still going to be a seller >> i am. >> interesting when you hear an alphabet shareholder say that, what do you think that says about this company's interest in winning? >> shows that google has been

caught off guard they were unprepared for this moment and you're seeing a scramble we have two research organizations working on similar problems let's bring them together. you do that when the system shocks you into having to make moves. that's what's happening. now as to whether google has lost the chatbot war, i think it's too early to say that the fact that they have these two research organizations show they're going to punch back hard against microsoft. >> i was expecting, malcolm, you to say this is what i wanted to hear from alphabet let everybody know we're going all in and i think we're going to win. >> what do they win? think about this, google is a proper noun and a verb they own 93% of the search market they don't really have anything to win if you think about

mathematically where they can go with this. if google does commit the resources necessary to become the dominant player in ai search and get to that singular search response as the thing we're looking for with chatgpt, what do they win? now they've cannibalized their only business which is to bring you 10, 20, 30 pages full of links where some of it answers the question you asked and some of it is ads, that's the only business google is in. if they work really hard and spend tens of billions of dollars to get you one answer to your search query, suddenly you're out of business. >> you heard steve say the lead alphabet has in search is so substantial. you see it that way? 93% of the market. >> one interesting thing that

happened, once bing chat came out google gained shares in the search market. people were like this is interesting, but we still really like google. if we end up interacting with computers this way, malcolm is making a great point you can't put ads next to a chatbot conversation in the same way you could in a search. chatbot wants to tell you the answer and it takes the magic out of it if they say here is something that you might want to see, by the way check out the taco bell. there's a threat there. >> if not alphabet, malcolm, who are you investing into to take advantage of the ai boom >> i'm not prepared to give as direct an answer to the question you asked me, scott. i think there's a number of companies that are basically building products to make themselves an attractive

acquisition target for somebody who has the capital to deploy and go after something like this because it's so expensive to run one of these large language models and have the data set necessary to return a meaningful answer there's very few companies that can participate, let alone compete in this space. i think something like a c3-ai, i don't own them, but they're an example of a company that built themselves into being an attractive acquisition target to come in to bring into their ecosystem. >> the competition, whether it's microsoft or alphabet, meta, you could go down the list with five other names. i asked chatgpt before this segment if this is a win or take

all game, i was curious as to what it would spit out here's what it said. we made a full screen to show you. while there may be some win or take all dynamics, the overall landscape is complex and dynamic. there are many opportunities for different players to succeed and contribute to the development of ai do you see it as a winner take most or is there enough of a playing field for all the major players? >> i think everybody can benefit from it. i think we can see some real shifts here. what you have if you move to this interaction layer with computers where we talk to them with our language, you have a different business model emerge. you have ads, but now you have apis who's in good position there microsoft is in good position there. then we saw open ai release plug-ins where kayak can get

into the chat and let you book directly from there. so you can have a licensing fee. that means we'll see a reshuffling. i don't think it will be a win or take all moment, but can we see a momentum shift from google to microsoft absolutely. >> you heard that interview on "60 minutes" and the pros and pit falls of both. i'm interesting how ceos are address the good of ai versus the unknowns. >> every ceo i speak with can't stop talking about ai. i've been reporting on tech for a long time. i've never seen a moment like this this is unique. >> in terms of what, the hype? >> they believe this will transform the way people are interacting with technology and the way they're building technology the second thing is they recognize the dangers. we've gone through this moment

with big tech, are we going to regulate them or not we haven't done anything people are saying there's no stopping this wave of technology let's figure out how to mitigate the down sides are we going to regulate ai? i don't think there's any hope of that happening. >> do we even know how we would regulate ai? how are you going to figure out what to regulate >> that's a great point. our federal government is so far behind in terms of understanding this technology. even the technologists don't fully understand what's going on they can't explain to you what's happening. are we going to ask congress to put common sense regulation on top of this technology while, by the way, china is full steam ahead. it's tricky to put rules and regulations around ai. >> malcolm, do you think there's

too much hype here is there too much hype around some of these stocks >> i don't necessarily think there's too much hype around a company like invidia who has proven they have a meaningful business i think there's going to be tons of companies that end up being the ftx of this ai arms race where just because they change their domain name people are willing to throw dollars at them there's so many folks out there in silicon valley right now trying to create that new company that basically just takes chatgpt forward or whatever new iteration they're working on, throws a thin layer of coat on top of it and is selling it as the next best whatever that's the concern i have. we'll get a lot of hype that will fizzle out.

there will be meaningful change from a company like microsoft who can tell me how to fix my table. i would pay for that it depends on who is providing it there's going to be a lot of companies who don't end producing everything who end on the exchange >> i've heard some people say we were wrong about web three, that it wasn't crypto, it's actually ai and now we're realizing it. >> we were talking about ai first. then we went through the pandemic and the zero interest rate moment and all this money and that led to this web three craze. i spoke to ai researchers and they're saying that was a distraction, now we're talking

about what matters think about technology in the next 10, 20 years. it's artificial intelligence that's what we're seeing today, these movements to get that lead. >> you know who else wants a piece of this pie, elon musk when he talks about truth gpt, what do you make of this >> i think he has his hands full he's doing rockets, twitter, tesla. he's digging holes now he wants to build an ai. i think he's spread too thin the point he's making about ai is interesting ai is going to take political stances, chatbots. they're trained with a political belief and you see them spit it out. chatgpt does this fight over ai ethics is going to be huge as we move forward. do i think elon musk is the person to solve this

i don't know i think his hands are full. >> he's a master multi-tasker. alex, thank you. malcolm, thank you as well. let's get to our twitter question of the day. who do you think will win the battle for ai -- alphabet, microsoft, meta or invidia we'll share the results later. we have a sell off which is intensifying we see the dow at the lowest of the day, now down by 200 points. up next we'll talk about weighing recession risks with an all-star panel next. i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab.

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welcome back we're tracking all the biggest movers pippa stevens back with that. >> regional banks are giving back some of yesterday's gains earnings reports so far show that deposits are stabilizing which is a relief for investors. it suggests that individuals and business customers have grown comfortable with banks again after the failures of silicon valley bank in march the builders are riding a hot streak itb hitting a 15-month high

today. demand for new homes rose in april for the fourth straight month. we heard from dr horton this morning. the company beating top and bottom line estimates. the ceo said the spring selling season is off to an encouraging start. that stock hitting multi-year highs today. scott? >> pippa, thank you. let's bring in joe and alicia of bny wealth management. joe, tough day earnings not great and the data is just bad. we can't sugar coat it it's bad data. >> it's recessionary philly fed is minus 31 the last time, 2008, 2001, 1991. i told you i was concerned

the rhetoric from the federal reserve means they don't understand the environment auto loans, delinquencies are beginning to rise. what's the most important payment you have it's your car payment. we saw it represented in housing. the economy leading indicators, negative territory the economy as we sit here today is probably in a recession is it statistically in a recession? maybe it's not, but it feels like it for consumers that's where we are look at the market where's oil? it's a dollar and a half above the level. that's on demand concerns. look at gold gold this week, you'll see you have a significant dip they came in and bought it why? it's the disinflationary proxy. >> energy is weak, tech is weak.

what do we make of it? >> we're slow walking to the recession. it's not the boom we thought it might be during the banking incident we're slow walking because of the contraction of credit. the sectors that got us to this point with the s&p up 8% and nasdaq up 16% are really the sectors next up for weakness ultimately you cannot have a contraction of credit and not have it affect the economy i think the fed hikes in may the market is giving it to them at this point. >> not giving them anything more than that if you look at the bond market. >> not giving them more than that, but there's a linear progression downward in real activity the fed is not going to cut because this is what they wanted and they're going to get it. >> tesla has been a drag all

day. >> down 10%. >> how much of an issue is that? it's a $500 billion market cap company. it's weighing on the nasdaq. it weighs on sentiment in some regard now you have worries about price wars in august look at ford and general motors. it's not just a tesla story today as it relates to that. demand falloff you raise demand, you cut prices. >> my concern is what you're talking about. i'm talking about the earnings effect goes beyond tesla. look at at&t they're telling you there's economic weakness when it's down 12%. you can say what about dr horton dr horton is momentum, low inventory. the concern you have as an investor, i've said this all week, the economic weakness we're experiencing now was discounted by the market in the fall that takes i doyou to where yout

approaching 4200 what is not discounted is a u-shaped earnings recession. we're in the midst of the second consecutive quarter where you see negative earnings growth the quarter we're in right now will be the most intense contraction of earnings growth we know there's going to be three in a row you're in that what happens from there? that's what the market has to price out. the expectation is that you'll begin to come out of it. you'll get mid single digit growth and in q4, you'll get the double digit growth. >> there are others who would suggest, alicia, joe is wrong on earnings, wrong on the economy and everything else that sounds

negative this is as weak as the economy is going to get. people who are running money for people are suggesting that it's not nearly as dire as the most negative of people would have you believe. >> because it's not going to be a set function down. i agree with joe in that this is all about margins. the tesla story is not just about tesla. it's a margin story. in the end the s&p at this price is trading at 20 times 2023 earnings that are still not believable you're in a very expensive place. how do you get above 4200? i don't think you can say this is the trough quarter on earnings there's a lot to go. there's too much excess in the system inflation, the core is still 5.6% the fed's going to be there. >> what about big tech big tech going to save the day in terms of earnings

>> i don't think it's going to save the day it's moved so much that it has to be -- the rocketship blasting into space the dispersion between how tech has performed and how the rest of the market has performed is unsustainable. >> i would be surprised if apple and microsoft and some other bigger cap names don't save the tape maybe they don't save the day, but they'll save the tape and position the market to go back towards that 4200 level. >> you still think we'll push higher >> i'm negative on the economic environment. i'm negative on the credibility of the federal reserve and i am concerned about forward looking earnings i'm concerned about that i think the market has discounted the economic weakness already. i don't think we need to

discount further in price much more economic weakness what we have to focus on now is to your point, the margin contraction in a more prolonged earnings recession i believe next week, yes, the mega caps, apple, microsoft, the ai story, the services revenue, that could lift the market to 4200 volatility is telling you that volatility is ridiculously cheap. what is it allowing you do it's letting you buy the insurance. generally the market doesn't let you buy the insurance right before a big precipitous fall. if it's letting you buy the insurance, that means there's more upside potential. >> guys, thank you. up next, a break in the bounce jonathan krinsky is with us. "closing bell" back after this

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and weaker economic data weighing on stocks all day our next guest believes it's signaling a break in the market up trend joining us now is jonathan krinsky. good to see you on a day where we're having this conversation the s&p and nasdaq are around session lows what's coming next >> it's been a frustrating tape for bulls and bears over the last few weeks we've been in this short-term trading range. the big trading range was 4200 on the s&p and we've been in this 4,160 range to us it's not a market necessarily you want to be focussed on the levels, right? if you look at the systemic community, depending on who you ask they were shorted a couple

hundred billion dollars and by latest estimates they're completely net long. it's a market that we continue to be able -- the macro is kind of dragging things for now equity volatiliiity is ignoring the signs despite the fact that the broad-based s&p 500 may not be showing it, look at the other metrics. the weak parts of the market remain weak, whether small cap banks, et cetera it's just the large cap tech names and even discretionary numbers you're seeing today, like tesla, that have been the holdouts. >> we've seen this movie before in terms of where the breadth of the market is or where the weakness lies and the data is not good and the markets remain,

to some people shockingly resilient. not to you >> again, it really is a function of where you're looking. the retail etf is down 15% from february highs you can go down the list really, most people, if their portfolio is largely s&p 500 or nasdaq, it feels okay. for people that have been more diversified it's a different story. really, the question is what's going to drive those tech names lower? again, the reaction to earnings will be telling. it's been a little mixed tesla and netflix are a bit on the weaker side. if you look at the high yield market, there's been this big discussion of why equity volatility is so low

high yield tds has been moving higher that's another indication that maybe equities are not seeing what the credit markets see. >> speaking of equity volatility, you referenced it, the vix. it was 16 and change now at 17. it's up a decent amount today. what's the right number do you think? where do you see the vix going >> again, the vix is a function of the trading environment the s&p 500 has been ranging the vix often doesn't care until it cares if we go back to some examples, go back to 2008. may of 2008 the vix was at a 15 handle that was two months after bear sterns went under. quickly rose from there. the biggest example is august of

2008 there were issues with fanny, freddie, aig in late 2008 the vix had an 18 handle it can happen quickly. we also think there's an interesting dichotomy between cvs in the united states which is higher than it's been even after the peak of the 2011 debt ceiling debate the market is overly concerned about the u.s. defaulting which has never happened and probably will never happen and is very little concern about equity downturn there's a lot of interesting things going on here. >> if not five-alarm at this point, it's going to be. october lows in play or not? >> look, it's been a constant question we think that's in play. obviously you have to break the trading range which is 3,800

first. we're now six months removed from the objctober lows. some people are saying given that it's gone on so long and we haven't broken the lows, that's reason to be optimistic. it's still a pretty weak six-month balance. typically by now you would be stronger we we see it both ways. >> others would say, yeah, you're six months from the low, that's enough distance and time to say you're not going back it depends on, you know, half full, half empty jonathan, thank you. jonathan krinsky joining us here. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers we have about 25 minutes to go pippa? >> telecom giant is down double digits plus, a check on trucks, trains and freight coming up next

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pippa stevens has the main stocks we're looking at today. >> at&t, what's weighing on the

stock is the slow down in subscriber growth. they're seeing consumers cutting back we'll hear from verizon and t-mobile next week. also, union pacific reporting a mixed quarter this morning. the company saying higher costs as well as weather affecting results. we're hear from night swift after the bell rings today j.b. hunt missed earnings estimates this week. they're saying the goods economy needs to improve scott? >> let's send it now to kristina partsinevelos with a look at taiwan semi. better than feared >> we can start saying they dispelled some rumors. >> you were watching this wondering whether this was going to be a cut in some of their business, right? >> a lot of people were,

especially given that apple is one of their biggest customers that's what didn't happen. they didn't cut their capital expenditures part of that was on today's earnings call, the company reiterated its full year guidance, ceding the range would be 32 to $36 billion that includes the $40 billion plant in arizona that's supposed to open in 2024. the promise to spend comes despite this persistent slump in demand for electronics we are starting to see what they're saying is a gradual recovery driven by new products, like the new chips for the iphone 15. the company is still low in q2 that's because of the lower than

expected china recovery. then auto spend remains steady and did see growth, although there's still some concerns and you talked about that with many traders throughout the week. is that going to be the next bucket to fall >> you can't -- you made this point so well. you cannot judge all these together in the same basket. >> no. >> it's pcs, what you just said, still weak. >> correct. >> judge intel however you want. autos slowing. text instruments -- >> auto is stable. >> but slower. >> because the correction has been so prolonged. is it going to happen to auto and will it be longer? because we were wrong about the pc bottom, lam giving mixed signals. there's still a lot of confusing.

>> lam up 6 1/3% our twitter question we asked who's going to win the battle for ai. is it alphabet, microsoft, meta or invidia we bring the results after the break. my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price. i think he'd be extremely proud of me, yeah.

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question you think microsoft, 36.6. invidia, 30.1. alphabet, we mentioned the reshuffling, 27%

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from csx reporting in "overtime. mike, you first. tech weak. earnings aren't great. data is weak >> we talked midday about how the market's resilience has been the story in the face of what had been a pretty cautious headline backdrop. more focus as we hit stall speed and resistance level of the s&p and what the nature of a pullback is going to look like remember, we have an 8% rebound off the midmarloch lows. feels like something is going on because it's been so calm in a tight range. it's unclear anything new is going on except for maybe it's time for another little bit of a growth scare we got some soft patch

suggestive data. we're sort of living through it. it's really not consistent you see services, spending strong american express had nothing alarming to say about the consumer it's a lot of give and take. >> maybe we're just going to be in this kind of pattern until may 3rd. all the fed speak hasn't done much lately. it really doesn't matter until the chair himself speaks. >> well, that's for sure >> may 3rd. >> i could say we'll go beyond may 3rd. there's not going to be a clinching argument to the deep recession or just the slowdown debate. >> it could be like, we're done. i think we're done. >> that would be fine. we have to figure out did you go too far before you finished? net net you can say we've a pivot or a pause coming sooner than we thought. >> because of the bank issue.

>> mostly because of the bank issue. >> and credit. >> what did that bauy you we don't know yet. it's been this low volume churn in the market. people have been relatively disbelieving or cautious about the market i think some of that is getting shaken out. >> joe, we said tomorrow morning procter & gamble, what are we thinking here? >> they have to restore margins to where they were before the pandemic that's going to be critical. it's a stock that trades at 26 times. it's in the etf. it's been there for the better part of the last five quarters the expectations for tomorrow are pretty high. they have a very high bar to exceed they're going to have to come in with revenue growth and really raise towards the upper end of guidance right now it's flat for 2023 to

maybe plus 4%. you want to see that move to maybe plus 6%. the onus is on p and g ain a sho me state there's other staples giving you better growth than p and g we own 11 consumer staples that seems to be the right place to be. >> staples, 26 times is not cheap for p and g. >> it's not. it's not out of the range, but at the upper end of the range for what it typically trades for. it's got an apple multiple and the quality premium afforded to apple as well. it's also a low cup line growth story right now. it's all about how much they can side step the cost side while finishing up on the price increases on the products. you know, i think it's, again, kind of the reason you pay to have a boring but stable story.

>> you get, joe, a good read on consumer trade down what they're seeing from the consumer in real time? >> listen, again, this is just my personal opinion and that's what makes the market. i've already resigned myself to the fact that we're weakening. that's, in fact, what we're doing. i cited before auto delinquencies beginning to rise. that's a critical element. that's telling you how stressed the consumer is. the federal reserve on may 3rd, scott, whether they pause or not -- if they pause, it will be the most hawkish pause in the history of monetary policy they're basically like your parents going to let you out from punishment, but tell you if you do it again, the punishment will be far worse. >> we'll see there joe, thank you

frank holland, csx, we know that trucking is a little weak. i'm really interested in what this company has to say. >> let's start with the basics revenues are forecast to increase by 5%, profit 10% the key area you want to watch is the merchandise segment that's the area where they had their higher margin freight, chemicals and food products. union pacific said shipments of chemicals were lower they say grain shipments were soft because of lower exports. that's an issue you have to watch. another area to watch is coal. csx gets about 15% of its revenue from coal. we had an unseasonable warm winter in the north. you should expect lower coal volumes. they didn't have the negative

impact from weather that union pacific had. they had mudslides and snow storms on the west coast the other thing to watch is operating ratio. the lower the better when it comes to this one. the estimate of 62.9 is a 50-point basis increase from a year ago that's the signs that investors are expecting a more efficient railroad >> year of efficiency. frank, i'll let you get ready for that record. we heard the two-minute warning there. you mentioned this, the difference between where rail is, where freight is, j.b. hunt came out and said we're in a freight recession. >> exactly, where airlines are too. i saw some numbers earlier that the volume of freight that is in motion is at a relatively

healthy level. back to 2018, 2019, but the number of trucks on the road is way up you had another one of these indigestion points in the economy that's been hard to pull apart from the straight old are we slowing and heading into recession. i think what they have to say about their pipeline down the road is going to matter. it's a very noisy setup. again, you've come from such high levels of activity, both in the goods, demand and everything else you're coming off it awful number, but it's a pmi type dispersion index sort of thing. this month worse than last month kind of thing. it's not going to be a comfortable call to say we'll be able to skirt the slowdown and muddle through on the other hand the banks seem

to not be panicking yet. >> the dow again is down 200 now it's down a little more than 100. we have some big earnings coming up. morgan and john pick it up right now. ♪ ♪ off the loads into the clothes. welcome to "closing bell overtime." coming up, kathy wood on the record she'll join us with her reaction to tesla results and the latest thinking on her other major holdings. plus, we'll talk to wes edens about infrastructure, the credit market and his prediction for natural gas prices >> let's get to our panel now. guys, welce.