near term. >> can you give me ten seconds on gxo >> yeah. so recent spinoff, stock has been hurt by insider selling and not good comps, but as a supply chain logistic strong management, great execution and i think it's going to benefit going forward >> thanks so much. see you tomorrow fast is now. >> right now on fast, the final hour of rebound. the s&p bouncing off its low for the year to finish solidly in the green. the dow staging a near 500-point turn around. will it last plus, shares of roku searching 11% today. tech popping, too. peloton, zoom, docusign. one trader says don't be fooled. and shares of mosaic dropping on mixed results. the stock's been rocketing this

year is there still room for growth in this sector i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, tim, dan, jeff, pete we start off with a big time market comeback in the last hour nasdaq surging 330 points to close out more than 1.6% higher. its best start to a month since april of last year the s&p and dow finishing solidly higher the move coming after or as the ten-year treasury yield topped 3% for the first time since 2018 the 30-year at its highest since 2019 so have markets found their bottom tim? >> no, but i think they found extremely oversold levels. we came in off a horrendous april. everybody knows those stats. so you came out of the gates, s&p up about 50 handles. we don't down over 100 before finding some place of optimism

in the midst of all this i think we're waiting on the fed. i think we're waiting on more earnings, but ultimately, the dynamic around where companies are going to be operating in this market for two, three quarters is what equities are doing now. we're also waiting for some of those megacap tech stocks shoes to drop. i think we're waiting on apple, microsoft. but right now, we're waiting and focused on the fed when the ten-year got above 3% and people should be concerned about that >> the last fed meeting in march, we kind of made a bottom right before that. we kind of rallied out of it i think it all went a bit further than a lot of people would have thought certainly than i thought so maybe that's a similar short of action. go back a few weeks when we had pou powell on the hill we had a stock market that careened lower i think it closed down 9% in

april. we saw all the readings. this morning, a miss of the ism. there's a lot of bad news near term and when is the last time we can remember the s&p down 10%? where nothing's going on other than the fed >> with the fed hiking -- >> that's kind of my point here. so we're a little oversold we're at a level almost got to a new 52-week low. that would have been a bell ring back towards 4400 in s&p >> 4050 had been a level that a lot of technicians pointed to in terms of being a support i'll flip what dan had to say on its head in that we had all this bad news we know the fed's going to do 50 we had bond yields popping yet we still managed to stage this bounce that's actually good news for the markets, no? >> well, i don't know, i'd like to see more follow through to put a pin as the bottom.

i think there's plenty to point to i keep pointing to credit. let's look at what it did today. hyg was basically flat jnk was down i would say you saw further deterioration of credit even as the equity markets are able to rally. so i keep saying beware of equity rallies i think more or less, that's what we saw today. apple didn't make me feel great. amazon didn't make me feel great. we did this analysis with microsoft maybe a week ago, be u a stock likes apple looks to be breaking down technically and from a valuation standpoint, even if it retraces halfway back to its average pe multiple, that would take it to about 20 times. it probably deserves a little bit of a premium, but that's 16% down if you were to see a move like that. so there is still room to come out of these names i talked about this friday as well and i'll end with this. look at how amazon did today then look at how facebook did today. there is a difference in these stocks that have rerated and

stocks that have not i think the stocks that haven't rerated are still going to pull the overall market lower over the coming weeks and potentially months >> duvo you feel the same? that there are pockets of the market that have been rerated? like an arc. north man twad trader pointed it out. it seemed to have some support there. do you think maybe there are pockets like these names that have found some footing? >> yeah. i think some of them, mel. i don't know about all of them i know we've got lists all over the place for tonight, but especially when i'm looking at big cap tech, i think a lot of those names actually stand out for me these guys were mentioning the turns we've seen out of facebook, amazon, apple, microsoft, and all of those big cap names. when stay start to move, there seems to be a huge rush and it's not just for those names

it looked like to me like they were picking up the entire market as a matter of fact, at the bottom of 3:00 as we were going to the final hour of trade, we had a huge buyer in the s&p 500 as a matter of fact. the spys we had some huge call buying in there. 17,000 of the upside august calls and it immediately flipped and we started to see that move and a lot of that was the big cap techs and those names that fall under whether or not they're in the dow or the nasdaq in some cases, obviously, affecting what's going on in the s&p. but it's been really, really interesting to watch april was a terrible volume month for the options world and now all of a sudden, we start off this month with over 40 million right out of the gate. i think there's a lot of different factors here including the charts a lot of people talking about that all week long we hit certain levels then bounced off. is it healthy? we'll have to see. it was one hour of trading so we'll find out more as we progress through this week

>> as you guys all point out regularly, you can't ever pick or know when the bottom is going to be. i think the question may be are we closer to the bottom than we are not. i want to play this sound from roger ferguson on this morning >> probably of recession in 2023 is certainly very, very high because of the challenges of trying to get this roaring inflation under control and having so few tools to do it so little ability to control the supply side of the economy >> all right so that's the take of a former fed vice chair saying high, high probability of a recession next year in light of that, tim, where should the markets be at this point? >> we're almost waiting for when getting bad data is actually an opportunity to buy stocks and so when bad news is good news and

what fed ferguson said is you have a case where you probably don't have the fed backing you and have that fed put and in some sense, the fed is actually ready to push the markets around and possibliy they're willing to push the market. if you have a neutral rate higher than 250, this is a case where i think the fed is not afraid to push the economy around a bit here. that's where all the fear comes from it's a very different fed. >> unlikely that the s&p 500 bottoms out down 15% in what seems to be now a high probability event of a recession in the next year or so it's just not how it works i know, you know, bear markets don't exactly have to correspond with a timing of a recession, but given the headwinds that we have, the issues with inflation, the speed with which rates have gone higher, the damage to supply chains. the uncertainty to the political situation. i could keep going

the s&p doesn't bottom out down 15% like that. >> we're in the middle of earnings season. if you think about the efficiencies and the tailwinds for a lot of these companies, they were able to squeeze out inefficiencies in their business and plus buybacks and dividends. we've had a case where earnings were probably as good as they could be in a cyclical environment and that's part of the problem. it always comes back to what do we think the multiple is we should put on stocks >> we are now less than 48 hours away from a huge fed decision. let's bring in steve liesman for more it's interesting how when you're a former fed official, you can say whatever you want and it makes me if other current fed officials actually think this, too. >> well, you know, i did a story on this a couple of weeks ago. what the fed officials were saying was the in office version of what ferguson said was they were not ruling out a recession. when you had powell come say

there was some chance we would have a soft landing and you had other folks saying, would not rule out the possibility of a recession. i think it's in the realm of possibility, that you have a mild recession so, yeah, ferguson is just able to say out loud what i think, what i'm sure a lot of fed officials are thinking >> yeah, so 50 basis points then what do you think the burning questions are going to be at that press conference? >> so one of the interesting ideas and i'll credit christian from evercore on this one. fed speak has been a little unruly and i say that as a guy who able to process a lot of fed speak and often find it rulely, i guess is the best way to put it. but right now, you have guys talking 75 and people talking about all kinds of stuff what christian i think appropriately is looking for is some bounds and some kind of

sense of how and why they would go faster or slower from here on out. i think powell's going to be a little reluctant he'll give us a 50 on wednesday and probably telegraph another 50 beyond that, i'm not sure how or what he kind of puts guide posts around what comes after that. the idea of a 75 basis point rate hike, it was baked in on friday almost 50% now it's back down to around i know, 28% probability in the june meeting so he has to figure out if he wants the market to be there and whether or not there's any conditionality of this march towards neutral. let me explain that. the fed was kind of ambling towards neutral then kind of strolling then trotting and cantering and now the fed is galluping towards neutral. if you look at the next chart, you're going to be at 200 basis points by august and you're going to be, you know, two, what

is it, 260, 280, by december t up to 330. that's where the market's priced and powell has to tell us, hey, is that a good idea or off base relative to what you think >> steve, i know the fed isn't worried necessarily about being a bond trader here, but does this become harder for the fed in an environment where bond yields are spiking, not moving lower, at least on expectation that we are pushing into recession? because it's a very complicated environment. especially with the sell of the yen, the japanese have been sellers. we were talking about it the ten-year over 3% >> i think the fed is fine with yields rising. i think that's sort of the intention, tim i -- the fed is trying to bring forward future tightening. right? and the more fed, the more tightening the fed can bring forward, perhaps the less it ultimately has to do so what's happening right now is we are experiencing the

tightening that might have happened at the end of this year right now in today's economy and that's where you see the market being buffeted by that. wait a second, i thought that wave was a mile offshore and now it's hitting the beach right now. that's what's going on in the market is just the almost daily to that new, incoming waves of tightening that's happening in the economy. i do think that ultimately the fed is going to have to come forward and say here's where the waves stop at some point here and not necessarily just one after another. >> somebody, steve, who did terribly in ec 10 in college, i'll admit that on national tv because it's undeniable. if the tightening that's being felt in the economy is the tightening that the fed intended for the end of the year, a lot of the economists were forecasting a recession in 2023, do you think that gets pulled forward? >> i do.

but remember there's a lot of crazy cross currents in this economy. you know, first of all, i think it's very hard to have a recession that everybody knows is coming. in some sense, by definition, a recession is the result of factors you don't know are coming why? your inventories get out of whack. you've got a smashed down inventories. if everybody seeing this coming in august or sometime of 2023, it's going to be very hard to have it. you also have this anomalous idea that travel is surging. autos is coming back amid all of this the market may call a recession, but the consumer and businesses may not show up. you've got a story i don't want to raise the curtain too much on frank holland's going to talk tomorrow about business investment it's going crazy it's been great in the national account. so i don't think in recession is a done deal here because coming out of this pandemic is a very unique set of circumstances and

hopefully it not only buttresses demand, but we get additional supply that could help with the inflation problem and maybe we'll all be surprised i know an optimistic point of view is not really fashionable these days, but there's a case to be made >> thank you, steve. all right, jeff, what do you think? >> so, i think there is an optimistic case where the fed can engineer a soft landing but i think it's difficult and obviously inflation holds the key. we are seeing inventories build. seeing demand fall on purpose. the fed is trying to destroy demand then we have the base effect i know that seems sort of silly to point out, but does inflation start to roll over enough to where the fed can back off that's the key if it does, we might be okay we'll have a mid cycle slowdown and nothing more but i did send in a chart. this is the issue we're dealing with so it's simply the ism manufacturing index. we got that report this morning.

it did miss down to 55 that's charted up against the ten-year treasury yield. you're seeing it move in an unusual way. ten-year higher and ism rolling over that means the fed is hiking into an economic slowdown. that is not typical and that makes it difficult to engineer a soft landing at this point >> pete, how do you navigate all these mixed messages when it comes to how you're investing? >> and there are a plethora, right? honestly, when i'm listening to dan go rocking and rolling through that whole thing, it's incredible and obviously the rest of the guys as well you know, it's amazing to hear steve liesman sounding a little more bullish than i usually feel like, or at least optimistic, i would say. i think honestly, mel, we read so much into every number these days that we're almost talking ourselves into some sort of a recession. it's not going to be easy. will they be able to manage this none of us know. but can it be a soft landing it can there's that possibility

so because of that, if the fed does everything right, which is going to not be easy, but if they're able to do that, mel, then we'll be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel i think a lot of people are still expecting that tunnel to be very dark, but there's a chance they to everything right and we react in the right ways so we can get through this and rather than a recession, just a very challenging time. >> coming up, much more on today's market action. dan will join us in just a few to break down what is next for stocks a big warning for the tech trade. plus, an earnings duo. shares of expedia and clorox on the move we'll bring you the details when "fast money" returns (vo) verizon business unlimited is going ultra! get more. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more.

new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

make fitness routine with pure protein high protein. low sugar. taste great. high protein, low sugar.. so good high protein, low sugar, mmm birthday cake and for a cheesy crunch, try pure protein snacks.

shares of expedia are higher after beating the top and bottom line seema? >> strong earnings report fueled by a 58% rise year-over-year in gross bookings still down about 17% compared to the first quarter in 2019. just on the call, the ceo says

he's very pleased that demand has come back post omicron the shortest wave thus far and regards to the war in ukraine, he says travel demand in europe is back to new highs so a very short blip there the rebound in cities. he sees international travel improving. on inflation, he says the pent up demand is outweighing really whatever the market has thrown its way. he said we could see travelers look for a cheaper alternative, but he doesn't see people canceling travel plans and that demand for vacation rentals, ver bow remains above 2019 levels. somewhat constrained on supply they expect to sell out in top locations this summer. that's where expedia has been focused on adding inventory. 50% were new customers and comes ahead of airbnb. expedia's event where theiry're unveiling new products kicks off

in about 48 hours. and a jam packed week for travel earnings hilton tomorrow, marriott wednesday, royal caribbean on thursday as steve was saying, we'll get a very good read on the consumer as we get to see if they are in fact responding to recession their fears. back to you. >> thank you it will be sbresing to see what the nuances of the quarter in more recent weeks have been. pete, where do you stand on travel in terms of hotels, planes, expedia? >> it certainly make s a lot of sense. the only hesitation i have is have people used up what their excitement was to get back on the road to get places go on vacations. and is the consumer's demand, is it going to be continue to be there? i think that's the biggest challenge. will this stand out going into the future because we know that people have been paying higher to travel

places whether it's by plane or whatever and that's a huge issue and do people have that kind of demand that's going to continue i think that's the only concern i have right now obviously those booking numbers were extraordinary 58%. that's a big number. but are they going to be able to continue this? i didn't hear much about the outlook right now and i think that's something that's going to be difficult to determine, whether the consumer is priced out or not we know costs are through the roof, but is it priced out we'll find out soon. >> we see a pull forward on everything, right? so why not travel to a certain degree then when consumers get on the road and travel, you go to a restaurant and get sticker shock from the food inflation. you've got to wonder if that helps an airbnb, dan >> and seema mentioned vrbo. that's their competitor. they have that going for them. i'll just say this this stock is massively outperformed the nasdaq. only down 3% on the year

it's got a defensible valuation. next year, they're expecting to have earnings and sales meet a new high to me, it's 17 times next year's estimates. if that's in line or possibly conservative, if things go better than expected, this stock is probably one that is showing good relative strength this year and probably has a good valuation support. >> next earnings alert shares of clorox lower after hours despite beating the top and bottom line. christina? >> the maker of glad bags and fresh step cat litter is seeing a drop after the company cut full year profit because of inflation. rising costs because of logistics are eating into profits. gross margin, shy of 36% the ceo expects an extra $30 million of added rising costs during the period and says quote,quot

we continue to see volatility and uncertainty in the macro environment. it sees its 2022 net sales declining between 1 and 4% the warnings weighing on the stock despite a quarterly profit and 2% net sales growth in the march quarter and shoppers be warned clorox plans another round of price hikes this summer. >> thank you time to stock up on the glad bags, tim, before prices go up >> that's what i do. >> how many price hikes -- >> you can, a few more and they're passing it on. i'll say this about inflation. copper was down another 3% today and there's some sense if you look at prices that we may hit peak inflation back to clorox, down 1 to 4% on sales. 29 multiple. not cheap. in an environment where you would expect consumer staples to continue to outperform, but not one where you have these kinds of price pressures

not far off the 52-kwweek low i think the things that drive demand for clorox are not what we're going to see remember how everybody needs clorox wipes, bleach the multiple of yesterday is not the multiple of tomorrow i don't think you need to step in and buy this. >> i think that's a dilemma are consumer staples you want to buy them, but they're expensive relative to the market and themselves. you've got to wonder whether or not they are worth it especially as they're facing higher costs >> yeah. i agree. i actually think if you start to see staples lag, that's a good thing. that has been such a good risk barometer since the march 2020 lows when that relationship reversed and staples started outperforming, the market followed you start to see names like clorox that's probably a good thing i think if things get bad, people are going to file into these names regardless of valuation. because i'm in the middle, i think the economy slows down but

i don't know if we get into that rece recessionary zone. i mentioned dollar general the other day. it does have better growth prospects, at least in my opinion. i'd prefer to play for a slowdown, but maybe not high staples. here's what's coming up next >> heading upstream. shares of roku surging, but the move has one of our traders scratching his head. so what's up with the high valuation trade? plus, time to take the field that's a hint for our next fast pitch. so grab your gloves and get ready to vote. you're watching "fast money" live from thnaaqe sd market site in times square. we're back right after this. annt plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more.

you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine.

and recessionary roku topping the tape today. shares jumping 11% and up nearly 22% since last thursday's earnings report. take a look at the other high growth tech names. peloton, docusign, zoom, and netflix in the green are these stocks primed for a big comeback dan, what do you think >> it depends on your time horizon. we saw huge bounces off the lows a couple of monthis ago. i'm looking at this thing, just made a new 52-week low trading nearly 500 in july and traded below $100. could it go to $150? in a heart beat. if you're trading, these are great opportunities to catch these turns in a way because they'll continue to go up for a couple of days as soon as the market rolled over, these made new lows. i was saying for a while, this is like the 2001 and 2002

playbook you know, it's one step forward, three back and you're going to take, it's going to take time for these things to bottom out >> again, we're talking about what's been nine months to a year for high multiple tech. not megacaps i look at that list, roku to me, has existential issues i don't know if anybody needs roku ever. they talked about tv sales sorry. and i look at docusign and zoom and say those are classic dot com tech stocks. we still don't know what they're worth. zoom could make an acquisition i'm not going to die on the netflix hill, but it's a very different story. it pulled back 70% for a company who's never supposed to be a linear straight line >> or do we look at these stocks and say what does this say about the markets if these types of stocks, i mean have you seen red

box? i hesitate to mention, small stock. less than half a billion dollars in market cap. it was up 70 something, it settles down to up 43% today, pete >> yeah. you know what, sometimes it just seems like they're buying almost everything, right? we talk about these multiple stocks or no multiple stocks all the time peloton being one of them. i've always referred to it as the most expensive clothes hanger for all the right reasons. people buy them, don't use them. they don't have their subscription model they move on and it finds its way to good will that's just the path line we've always seen. when i look at a name like that where their cash burn is high, they don't make money and we've talked about this for a long time yeah, they had that great run in the first six months or so of the pandemic, but then what? it's one of those things roku at least has some sort of promise. netflix, some promise. but i think there are a lot of

names where they got pulled in and now they're seeing the pain side yeah, a bounce in some of these names, but i think ultimately we're going to see a lot of these names go lower even though today peloton was at a 52-week low again. >> i don't disagree. maybe tim said it earlier. i think sooner or later, these stocks will show relative strength to the large cap stocks then you'll know to get in the pool then. you know what i mean but right now, we're not out of the woods with the s&p down 15% and nasdaq down 20%. that is the playbook going back to the post dot com crash. roku, good balance sheet could there be strategic m&a not here, not right now. it took two years for the nasdaq to go back 85% from the highs in 2000 different nasdaq, but some of these stocks >> down 85%. >> they're banging around going up 10%, down 15% that's why we can talk about

this for six more lonts like this >> somebody should call around good will. see if peloton's -- talk about channel checks >> wow i doubt it >> well, all right our next guest warns half the market is in a bubble and high valuation stocks are a big reason why dan suzuki, great to have you with us. when you say high valuation stocks, i'm guessing you mean the ones we're talking about versus a clorox, which is high valuation stock relative to itself >> yeah. i guess you know what we're referring to is if you think about the 11 sectors in the s&p now, about three of those sectors have heavy weights in tech and tech like stocks and innovation, growth, and disruption and those are information technology, communications services and consumer discretionary those three alone make up about half the market cap of the s&p 500 and i think in all different

k ways, they've all been moving. this bubble that we think is present in markets today even after this big correction. that's big risk. something we've been writing about is where do you go for diversification if everybody's portfolio is heavily concentrated and everything out there is heavily correlated unless if you want diversity education, you have to proactively put that into your portfolios by reducing your -- just from a pure, prudent portfolio management perspective. >> last time we saw you was january 18th, i think, and then you said you saw a nasdaq 100 correction of 50% in the cards from its highs are you still sticking with that >> yeah. it wasn't you know, super scientific digging through that asset values sort of analysis, but if we're right and technology and technology related stocks are in a bubble, go back and look at the history of bubbles

they don't softly correct then they're off to the races six months later you typically see a major correction 50% or more and typically comes with an overchute to whatever you think fair value is. so that's all i was saying is that we are in the early stages of the unwinding of this bubble and so there's probably a lot more downside to go. >> hey, dan. so question about sort of where to hide in all this. you said you like cyclicals, financials specifically then staples potentially. so relative to cyclicals, financials, do you worry about what an economic slowdown might mean for that sector then in the same breath, you talked about staples being expensive. can you walk me through the call there? >> yeah, jeff, you make a great point and i agree. i think that right now the way we've been positioning the portfolios is essentially a barbell between defensives and inflation beneficiaries. as we know, most of the

inflation beneficiaries tend to come with a lot of cyclicality the move here, the further profits continue to slow, the further the economy continues to slow, you probably want to switch the concentration of that barbell away from the inflation ben beneficiaries and toward the defensive names. if you go back and look at all of the bear markets over the last 20 to 30 years, look at the starting point valuations for defensive stocks they are never cheap going into a bear market if this is going to turn out to be a bear market. they're never cheap and still outperform part of that is what are they cheap relative to? what are they expensive relative to >> dan, good to see you. thank you. >> thanks. >> pete, i'll go to you because i feel like your portfolio is probably the inverse of what is dan is recommending in that he says inflation ben -- no

what >> you'd actually be surprised some of my longest holds that i've had are very defensive. when i'm looking at a coke, pepsi and some of those names that i think a lot of people view as defensive. on the other side of it, i've got a heck of a lot of energy. i've got a lot of financials i'm sort of in that, but not for the same reasons i just found myself into a lot of these stocks because i like the management and a lot of these through you guys because we've had the pitch stock going for so long. along the way, i've added stocks into my portfolio that i might not have looked at because of the research i was doing, some of these have become a mainstay of what i hold when i hold these stocks. i've maybe got 45 stocks or so and right now, i've got energy, financials then i do have a lot of defensives as well. >> coming up, shares of american express lower today. we'll break down what had investors charging out of the trade. but first, we've got a guest

abou pitch taking your way gr yr gloves and get ready for this next curveball. "fast money's" back in two the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!

become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

brookfield has been under pressure like the rest of the financial sector, down 17% this year but our next guest says it might be time for a turnaround brian lee, it sounds like the big part is that it's trading at a discount to nav. >> yeah, thanks for having me on the show, melissa. first off, we don't believe it's going to be easy for the fed to manufacture a soft landing into a deaccelerating economy so we want to own the companies that can withstand the turn and take advantage of it that's why we like brookfield asset management about 700 billion in capital and owner of 60er% of capital >> it's tim. keep going >> the stock currently trades about 50 bucks a share, roughly

60% midpoint nav last shareholder letter, the company spoon fed investors what they believe the company is worth, citing $50 to the asset management side. i'll take questions to start off. >> it's a fascinating topic i think during a lot of financial turmoil to go after a money manager. how do they handle high water marks in the midst of a drawdown and what would that do to your projected earnings they do in the last five year, but that might have been the sweetest spot for money managers of all time. >> that's a great question, tim. the great thing about this base is not only is it locked up in terms of 60 to 65 margins in the next five year, but has a great -- meaning as its assets come down, the investment environment, they'll be able to accelerate the deployment of that which they have 90 billion

si sitting in dry powder which will start to generate to the bottom line >> bryan, thank you. >> thank you so, we asked traders are you buying bryan lee's pitch i can hear tim scribbling on his black board here you ready? go >> bryan did a great job with that it's a very compelling idea, but in this environment, i have to be a seller. i think it's a tough time for him. >> dan, what do you say? >> i also thought it was a great presentation i'm a buyer. air pocket down to 45. that's the pre pandemic high there. >> jeff mills? >> so i wrote good house bad neighborhood because i think financials are tough, right these are stocks that usually outperform in a low rate environment, expansionary environment. that's not where i think we're

going, but i think a company like brookfield is better positioned i think it's better positioned than blackstone. i think the earnings are more stable i think there's a catalyst if they spin off the asset manager so i like it >> pete, what do you say >> i'm going to tip it back to a buy. i thought he did an outstanding job presenting this thing. i thought the opportunities are there still for somebody like a brookfield so i like this pitch he sold me on it >> all right so three buys on the desk. the traders have spoken. it is your turn now. are you buying bryan's fast pitch? head to cnbc fast money on twitter to vote. coming up, because you guys voted buy. shares of american express in the red today. we'll breado wt k wnhais behind this move, next. "fast money's" back in two

you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪ ♪ i came, i saw, i conquered. (all): hail, caesar! pssst caesar! julius! dude, you should really check in with your team on ringcentral. i was thinking like...

oh hi, caesar. we were just talking about you. ha ha ha. yeah, you should probably get out of here. not good. ♪ ♪ ♪ ringcentral ♪

welcome back to "fast money. we've got a buzz kill. it's american express shares falling almost 2% the stock is down 7.6% since reporting on april 22nd. so what is in the cards now for american express pete, you know, we had great

numbers from visa. we're hearing good things about travel and so what do you think about american express >> yeah. and american express talked about exactly that they've talked about travel, entertainment, their volumes about a lot of those different things and they delivered, but the market for whatever reason, mel, continues to kind of punish this name. trading at the multiples its trading, it is kind of puzzling to be honest with you. i think capital one sort of falls in that category for me because they get an incredible amount of their revenue off the credit card side of things as well there's the haves and have nots. for whatever reason now, american express seems to be under pressure i think at this rate though, it's getting very, very close to a buy for me so i'm keeping a close eye onit >> tim >> i actually think the stock trades pretty well given the environment and how some of the other financials trade banks there is credit risk here. i'd also say it's probably like the midpoint of the one-year

range. it's actually up on the year i think the relative o outperformance is good suggesting maybe there's more credit risk here transaction, transaction, transaction. it may slow down, but there's a credit recession >> shares of mosaic down about 2.5% after reporting numbers we are diving into the options pit to see how traders are playing the stock. the details next and there's still time to vote on the fast pitch. head to twtetoot itr ve. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you.

pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

welcome back we have an earnings alert on mosaic the fertilizer producer falling after hours kicking off a huge week of earnings with a modest eps beat and revenue miss. they mention the uncertain outlook caused by the russia ukraine outlook and that's unlikely to change by the second half of this year. tim, you trade in these stocks also a potash producer it's up about 4% after hours >> i've seen a mixed bag they're all down 10 to 20%

it's interesting that they're pointing at russia ukraine which has spiked commodity prices as being the problem. what you typically see with a lot of the ag producers, with this type of volatility, no one believes you can sustain these prices what we're hearing from the analyst on the street is they're looking at ag and softs as a multiyear cycle. i'm not ready to ruin that the greatest thing for higher prices is higher prices. i think mosaic down here, 25% off, get back above the 50-day and you're buying the stock. it's priced for prices probably 20 or so percent lower >> the move is having a big impact on a multi-million dollar options bet. tony >> today what i want to take a look at is one particular large trade that really exemplifies how institutional investors take a look at earnings versus retail

because if we take a look at the implied move on mosaic for earnings, it was implying an 11.1% move which is 50% greater than the average of 7.5% and the traders sold 1400 contracts in the may $60 collecting 9.05 in credit. this is most profitable if the stock stays around the $60 range. it's a short volatility play taking advantage of these extremely elevated and implied volatilities going into earnings versus the more directional nature we see retail traders use for these types of plays >> pete, do you like the ag trade? >> i do. specifically cf. which i own calls. we had some huge call buying a while back nat gas and the prices of nat gas, which is a big component here, that's a real problem because of course that's going to affect the margins as well. so we talk about the good side of the inflationary side then

there's the bad side and right now, nat gas certainly at levels, it's highest since 2008, is going to impact some of these names as well going forward. but the free cash flow of cf is fantastic. >> all right tony, thank you. for more options action, tune in to the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern and you still have time to vote on bryan lee's fast pitch. head to twitter to ve.ot the results and final trades are next when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

hey businesses! aren't just made for traders -thyou all deservehem. something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

welcome back time so see, oh, no. you were not buying bryan lee's fast pitch on brookfield asset management that in and of itself is very useful, actually if we are contrarian indicator every single time. final trade time jeff >> apple i don't think the bounceback today holds. seller on frield i'm a seller today >> pete. >> saw huge buying in lucid.

>> tim >> hes >> expedia looked good on a pullback >> thank you for watching. we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. do not goanywhere. "mad money with jim cramer" starts right now my mission is . to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica other people make friends, i try to make you money. call me at 800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jim cramer it is the interest rate, stupid. that is my take on this market the yield and the benchmark 10-year treasury spike