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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  April 26, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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125. i may dip in as it gets closer the stocks has been overly punished >> and pete. >>m i going to give you general motors this is i'm seeing so much buying today i've had three separate monstrous buys we're looking for this to go higher >> good luck i'll see you in the o.t. thank you, scott hi, everybody. and welcome to another ugly day in the markets yesterday stocks turned around right about@this time. although we are off lows, we have panic about covid in china, concern over russia cutting off gas supplies and looks like the recession could be worse than previously thought. we've got all the latest some are calling for recession while others are saying the fed isn't tightening enough. why some have people calling for
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the fed to be even more hawkish. and earnings aren't helping either nasdaq's down 3% as google and microsoft get set to report tonight. both stocks having their worst months in years. let's begin with the latest on the losses we're seeing. >> we're below what we were yesterday. that gives you an idea of how things have progressed if you look at the dow industrials right now, down 453. now, to give you an idea at the elow thfz session, we were down roughly 574 points and the last trade off 1.5%. the real out sized dekleiner, maybe no surprise, it's more intense with the nasdaq compaused. we were down 425 points to give you an idea. tilted towards the low end but a lot more focus on the nasdaq and trade. if you're wondering what the
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lows were over the last year, the 52-week low, that would be 12,555 one bright spot in energy. far and away one of only two in the green, utilities being the other. but the spider sector etf is up today. and wti rebounding after yesterday's sell off tie high to conerns about china's economy. and if you look at the big tech trade, kelly pointed out this idea we were hyperfocussed on what's going to happen with alphabet, parent company of google and microsoft both reporting after the bell today. sim iconductors down 6%. and then internet related stocks down 11. in just one week alone, to highlight some of the real weak spots in the tech trade.
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and if you're looking for a bright spot from a stock-specific story perspective, check out what's happening with sherman williams. it's up 10% and trading right now. yes, the best performing stock in the entire s&p 500. reports better than expected profits, revenues and makes an interesting commentary that they think that the worst of the supply chain issues may be behind us. so, watch those shares up about 9% over the last year. just about flat. >> i think that's perhaps the most underplayed and significant story of the day absolutely the nasdaq obviously the biggest laggard and we have key tech earnings my next guest is a buyer of at least one of the big tech stocks and joining me is chief investment officer what do you make of all of the market weakness? >> first of all, thanks for
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having me. it'ser a really difficult market right now. i think the fed is the driving factor we've got pretty decent earnings i know it's mixed but when i look at about 20% of the company that have reported so far, i'm seeing 70% or more and that's a surprise to the upside on earnings and more than half surprise to the upside on revenue. that's really strong but again the fed, with its hawkish tone, threats of a half a point or three quarters of a point rate hike in the future. that's weighing on the market. the fed's got a different balancing act to fight inflation while making sure that growth doesn't slow down too much and i think that's the over arching tone in the market today. >> and you're still looking at stock like google and thinking it's a decent time to buy. why not wait it out a little bit? >> here's what my take is. we're in the midst of earnings
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season we know google's reporting today and a lot of the tech earnings have not been great. netflix is the one stock that we expect tech earnings to be bad don't just lump everything together because it's got a similar sort of technology bend. google, i think is going to benefit from all the bad stuff that's going on with meta, in the sense that, folks that would normally be spending advertising dollars on places like metta, will likely go to google for now until all the policies change. and i think google also has the benefit of being a company where the share price has been relatively stable, earnings growth has been relatively stable and investors are going to look at a stock like google and say it's a pretty safe play. >> what would your parting words
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of advice be to investors who are like maybe there's tactical opportunities but do i need to hus tool get into the market, which is down 11% off the all-time highs of the s&p or are we in a minus move where i are could see a better entry point >> i say be patient, buy a little now, buy a little tomorrow inflation is so high that if you decide to just sit on the sidelines, you're really losing money today. and the inflation environment encourages risk taking, encourages us to invest in stocks and over the long term, stocks will be the place to go. but the next 90 days is going to bow a rough ride so, buckle up. >> even since he said we're off the lows, wore heading down towards them thanks so much >> great thank you. now, as the sell off continues, are the charts giving us clues as to what might come next
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he's market strategist and you warned us about your queazyiness about the markets last time we saw you. first of all, what gives with the action from friday's terrible sell off to yesterday's complete turn around and today a presumption of looks like a pretty broad-based decline >> it's the volatility that's the issue and it's also every third day we get that rebound, which is to say hope is still alive. there's nothing wrong with that but it means you never get the cathartic sell off and the conclusion so, let's take the small catch russell's been in and out of the bear market, however you want to define it. it's about equities have been topping for quite some time. and i think this is important. we have a biefricated market and the history of biefericated markets is not good. think of how strong energy has been, steel, aluminum, consumer
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staples, utilities up and up to the right. at the same time extreme weakness and bio tech gets worse and technology and semis and retailers. when you have a spread like that, there's the thought the strong stocks have it right; that energy leading the way and the material stocks and the strong start to crack. we're seeing that now. metals are cracking. a lot of the steep run up is starting to give way and the weak get worse so, we're starting to see that unfolding. i think there's more down side more stress ahead and it's just a time to post pone most all new buying >> i don't like this message this is a very difficult one >> i mean, obviously everyone can do what they want. there are some times when -- and
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we have expressions. stand aside. i think that's a moment like this >> it's interesting what you say about leadership because definitely people have been looking to the market and saying fine, if i stay away from high tech and get into some of the ports you mentioned, maybe i can ride this out. what would your -- i don't want to say advice, but the way you look at the set ups, could this dynamic be changing somewhat >> i mean, the playbook, if you can call it that page and there are people who don't have a choice. you're by mandate fully am vested it's not ran walmart [ inaudible ] so, the defensive trade is always there. but then it gets to when you do have a choice. do you have to and you were asking that just yesterday, do you have to put money into google right here? this is a time, i think i you
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should avoid the temptation to say i got to get in and do something. sometimes sitting on your hands is the best thing. >> while the fed was doing qe and the economy was quite weak, we kept getting sell off and dips so short and the rips would be so extreme. it was like if you didn't buy stocks bottomed and who knows the time, you would nisz 5% move before you knew it why is now different >> right so, it depends on whether you're in a bull or bear phase. so, if you're in a long and protracted assent and we've been -- it depends how many years you want to measure. dips are countertrend moves in an ongoing uptrend the question is are we still in uptrend. it goes back 100-plus years. the all-country transportation index peeked may 10th. meaning it's never confirmed the
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move since then in the rest of the global equity market and as a long answer, i don't think we're in an uptrend. the counter trend moves are these upmoves, which should be faded. and buying the dip is wrong. >> last question is this a time frame people need to wait it out is it contingent on what the fed does here? what gets us to the end of the down trend >> maybe the most point of all is about time. so, could it be that, after the great excess of the past two years, whether it's government induced or not but it's been impressive is this now simply the pause or is it more of a stall before the storm? let's hold that aside. either way, i would say 90% of the odds are capturing it sideways or down 10% only is that we somehow go higher from here. >> i really appreciate it, sort
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of but i do because a more cosmic sense of what's going on here is helpful, especially on days like this we with appreciate it. carter worth from worth charting now, we actually have a bond market news alert. those two-year notes went up for auction and they're well off the highs. rick >> yes, yields are well off their highs. that's why i wouldn't have gambled. and boy was i wrong. a plus on these 48 billion, two-year notes they were literally fighting for these. 48 billion, two-year notes at the dutch option of 2.585, well below where the one issue market was trading. off the bat, it priced aggressively indirect bitters, well above the 10 auction average are and the one that just jumps
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out is only 12.6% go to dealers. because so much went to the direct fitters that happens to be below my smallest amount on my 20-year tale of auction data which means i don't have anything small, i don't have any instance where the dealers took less which means it was aggressive. a two-or three-year note deal dropped but longer dated treasuries hardly moved at all and that's important two-year notes are going to be pegged to around 2.5 to 3.25%. and that's quite evident by how the markets have acted after the good auction results back to you. >> thank you very much a really stand out auction now to deutsche bank, the first firm calling for a reesession. they're saying the down turn will be more severe because of elevated inflation levels.
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new home sales dropped for a third straight month in march as the spring buying season kicked off. and durable items rebounded last month. and consumer confidence, while dipping in april, remained relatively high or at least indicating economic expansion. joining us is the chief u.s. economist. i don't think you have a recession call but you acknowledge risks are rising to next year. a year from now anything could happen but there's a specific reason why people are are concerned it's going to end in a down turn next year. >> thanks, killy happy to be with you it's an interesting time right now there is still deep momentum in the economy and actually from the labor market perspective, very strong momentum and as you highlighted over goods this morning, showed a rebound. business spending is still on
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track, even when you adjust inflation, it looks quite solid. but the risk to rise as we end this year going to 2023, and that's really because some of the momentum that we see in the economy starts to ease and at that time, we think the fed, which was mentioned quite a bit with your previous guest, gets to more restrictive policy stance and maybe the fed does hold the key here as it does for the economy and clearly for the financial market the restrictive policy become as bit more difficult to overcome wore with not calling for a recession and don't have the rate increases that deutsche bank is talking about. i think in that scenario, you have to see inflation, i think, accelerating much higher and a real protracted wage price follow, which we don't see at this point it's a risk. at the very least, we think the
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fed is going to have to get restrictive. >> no one wants to hear a message. stocks don't look like they're responding well but would you frame the trade off is the maybe more market pain to quell the inflation problem or potentially face a decade of turbulence if everything you're talking about comes to pass? >> i think they're looking -- they're not specifically looking at equities as we would as investors. they're looking at we have a dual mandate to promote full employment but stable prices and right now prices are anything but stable. they don't want that to eb into the median for longer term views. stamping on the brakes now maybe what they need to do, and risk a recession to make sure we don't get inflation expectations and
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wage expectations rising to a pointed with much tougher to ring that out of the system, right? once it gets embedded to the business and actual wages, much more difficult than just waiting for supply chains to resolve themselves >> which was that glimmer of good news from sherman williams. bottom line, has anything that's happened conspired to make you think the fed only does 25 next month? >> not at this point they've really lined it up and telegraphed they're going 50 basis points and the data suggests that as well. i think at this point, the fed is 50 basis points for may, 50 for june wore not quite ready to say another 50 basis points after that but that's the risk. the risk is they do more, not less and the risk is economical, slower, not higher >> and more and more traders are focusing on the m 2 aggregates and pointing out we've gone from
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27% year-end growth m 2 early last year now to just about 10%. are and is as the liquidity tide keeps reseeding witz a head wind here we haven't even talked their plans for quantitative tightening thank you. joining me from oxford economics. and a news alert on the covid front. meg. >> reporter: hey, kelly. the cdc held a call and new data look athhow many peep vl been infeck would the coronavirus but first really giving a picture of where we stand in the trajectory of the pandemic cases have been rising nationally, now up to 44,000 per day on the seven-day average that's about 23% increase week over week. hospitalizations have also been rising nationally for the second week in a row, in terms of admissions we're up 7% and more than 1600
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per day and deaths are declines to 13% and the cdc director pointing out even the nature of the hospitalizations is different. we don't see so much severe disease within those hospitalizations which is good news but it's a metric they're looking at closely they also note this new sub-subvariant of omicron, known as ba.212.1 is more contagious than ba.2 makes up about a third of cases being sequenced in the u.s. right now it has a foot hold, particularly in the region in the northeast and it's more transmissible an than the previous version of omicron, which was more transmissible than the previous version of omicron and as of the end of february, survey data suggests about 58% of americans had been infect would the coronavirus.
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this does not include antibodies from vaccination, only from infection. and that number is much higher in kids than older people. about 75% of kids under the age of 11 and the figure is similar for teenagers are as well, are thought to have been infected, compared to 33% for people over 65 those numbers are inversionally proportional with vaccination rates. more older people are vaccinated >> is the conclusion basically the u.s., while it's struggling with another outbreak, has reached a level of herd immunity >> there is such a temptation to conclude that from this and the cdc is saying we can't conclude from previous infection we have reached a kind of heard immunity level or we should assume this provides strong protection against future infection and severe disease they're emfuassociation it's important to get vaccinated even
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if you'r -- youvl ror been infected and they think it does have an impact on having less severe waves, hopefully going forward >> thank you for bringing that to us. still ahead, one of the disasters. shares of ge are down. despite an earnings beat we'll look at why the stock is heading lower yet. and three more names on deck with earnings and all three have veero sell ratings on the street microsoft alphabet and visa. and here's a quick check on your markets. the dow is at session lows down 591 points. the nasdaq is down more than 400 points, down more than 3%. stay with us
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welcome back general electric shares are down almost 12% after supply chain issues crushed the stock s is eema. >> a fresh 52-week low supply chain, inflation, there
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isn't one macro challenge that is not effecting general electric short-cycle businesses, like health care, says they can move price a bit more to compensate for inflation. but for longer-term cong tracts like renewables, it's more challenging. culp says that's partly due the administration not rolling out the subsidies needed to make wind energy more competitive >> with respect to renewables, clearly our play is in wind, both on and off shore and certainly, particular ely in the u.s., we're in a soft spot and that hurts because we lead here. if we can have congress implement the tax incentives and other regulations to provide certainty with respect to the landscape and in turn, customers can see how pricing's going to play out in this inflationary environment, i think we can get wind back in a better trajectory
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>> the challenge is on the wind and renewable energy front one bright spot is aviation. revenue rise 12% flight departures reaching 19% by the end of the year order book is up double digits >> and this is another chance to check in on china and what they have to say behind the demand and supply side of the story >> i asked about the situation in china and he said within aviation is the only market they're seeing pain. he did have optimistic comments around productivity. shanghai, he says the situation is improving but longer term it still remains a big struggle i think that's why it's harder for wall street to price the stock. citi group with a $100 price targ andt j.p. morgan with a $55 price target with these cross currents in play, it's hard to understand where the story goes
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>> absois lotly. not like they gave us anymore clarity we were seeking right now. let's turn now to the dow transports they're falling 2.5% after earnings reports of their own. the index is down from the 52-week highs. frank holland has more details frank. dow franz ports are down they still face a lot of macro pressure er the world's largest container port are expected to hit imports and trade volumes in the u.s inflation continuing another factor and the potentialal of headlines of potentialal nuclear war seen as a head wind for consumer demand. you're seeing ups down today, despite a strong earnings report and other port movers like union
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pacific and j.b. hunt not hit quite as hard. that's largely because the way we're talking about in shanghai, they're expected to lead to a surge in exports and other nations. in addition to higher rates for container shipping, which benefits union pacific and also the largest operator container shipping over the ocean. you see the container shipping companies trading higher today and they've been under a lot of pressure they've turned flat year over year after being more than 80% higher a that start of february. the shanghai port disruptions that really remains unclear. rates that generally rise as produce and vegetables begin to move around the country and you can see trucking names continue to be under pressure >> and not giving people a lot of solids here frank holland. coming up, home builders delivering an earnings beat but there's a red flag
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what it says about where the housing market could be headed and one says the secret to success of peloton is spin thaufg bike business and it's more than 80% off its skboo-week high. as we head to break, here's a latest snap shot the dow heat map with the session lows down 600 points there is only one name in the green. chevron hanging on to a very 'rbaht gain. wee ck in a moment ♪♪ ♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again.
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4200 with a decline of almost 400 points the dow's down 635 and the nasdaq is down 419 there it is 420. 3.2% decline by far the hardest hit today and that is easily the worst performing sector. consumer discretionary down 3% and oil and everything going on is jumping back above 100 a barrel friday oil sold off when the market was weak. could be something to do with russia cutting off gas supplies to poland. that's a story we are certainly watching this hour some of the other movers include tesla, which is one of the worst performers in the market it's certainly not helping coun 11% to under $900 billion in market cap. 886 is the print for tesla after elon musk triggering concerns he may be spreading himself too thin with his takeover of
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twitter, whose own shares are down chipotle falling as well concerns about consumer spending and food inflation chipotle down 5% and down 17% this year. and also the chip stocks you heard carter worth mention this at the top. they are the worst performers again with declines of 5% for a and, d less than that for invid you one stock moving higher is sherman-williams and wm stock up 5.5% after its revenue beat expectations and renewables business is doing well because market prices are recycled commodities are going up and the stock is up 23% there's some green for your screen and finally grown on the screen here's what's happening at this hour the supreme court heard two
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hours of arguments on the so is-called are remain in mexico immigration policy and whether the biden administration can drop it. chief justice roberts appeared critical of claims for lawyers for both the white house and the state of texas president biden announced his first three pardons today. he gave clemency to a kennedy' era secret service agency convicted of bribery and two others who became pillars of their community. and they've rur found high energy levels at the chernobyl nuclear plant in the wake of its occupation of russian troops, who dug trenches in the area the inspectors visited the city today. it's in ukraine. it's the 20th -- anniversary of the chernobyl disaster and natural gas shipments have been halted poland imposed sanctions on 50 russian oligarchs and companies.
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how u.s. intelligence has helped ukraine protect its airspace that is tonight at 7:00 eastern. kelly, see you in a little bit >> we'll see you soon. still ahead two big tech names on deck with their earnings we'll look at what they need to do to win over wall street with the stocks under pressure. vees issau as well how much of an impact will the russia/ukraine war have?
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welcome back the busiest week of earnings continues with 50% of the market cap reporting in the next couple of days. we have the action, story and trade on three key names reporting today. none of them which had any sell ratings on wall street let's start with alphabet. down 17% and having the worst month since, get this, january of 2010 and it's traded higher following each of the last four reports. here's the story on alphabet today and ceo of tangle
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investments. welcome back, nancy and what are we watching tonight? >> the whole digital media ad space has been under pressure. this very uncertain macro environment. alphabet is seen as the most insulated from the forces. this is a bad house in a bad neighborhood so, this is of course a barometer for the entire ad spaces because it drives so much of its business from that. investors are going to want to see how it's fairing and on the cloud side, makes up a smaller part of its business and boy a long shot, after amazon and microsoft what investors are looking for is continued strong growth and narrowing losses we know the cfo is going to keep investing in cloud but the question is can they also narrow the losses a number of different things we're looking for, kelly
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but alphabet is going to show it's more insulated from some is of the ad companies. >> it will bow interesting to watch if a company, who everybody agrees has bright prospects, can ignore the pandemic hang over effect. erse for are weknow cloud is probably going to slow and it's a question of what else can you tell us at this point? >> that's right. last quarter, they had a great quarter. they rallied and couldn't hold it cloud has been growing at a rapid pace but it's only 5.7 billion of revenue advertising is 57 or 56 billion. you really need a lot to -- a lot of growth to offset any potential decline in advertising. the one encouraging thing is the back log last quarter was up 70% in the cloud and that was equal to about 51 billion in back log
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revenue that will come down the pike i think there is good news but they've told us cap x is going to go up so, the question will be are they ever going to initiate a dividend are they going to continue to buy back shares? i think you want to watch this and watchgoida guideens on marg because that's important as well >> watching for all sorts of moves. 54 buys and no sells, which trades 20 times forward earnings the fact it's having the worst month in over a decade is quite remarkable let's move on and talk a similar situation, which is microsoft, also down 20% to start the year. tonight it's still about cloud, azure, the growth story. on pace for the worst month in years. what will you bow watching
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>> hope you're not tire ochd talking about cloud because that's what we're going to watch for. the azure cloud business grew 46%. it dipped below that 50% year over year growth rate for the first time in a while. we're going to watch that. how fast is azure growing? and keep in mind, as we're talking about google, as far as market share goes, you have aws, amazon's cloud as the market leader and the distant third, google, which we're talking about. office 365 preskripgdss. and that's if wing to reflect in the final month of the quarter we're about to get and looking forward, as they struggle to get that last 20% or so of the office customers, who haven't moved over to the office 365 subscription program, they're finding new ways to lock people in to annual rates customers who, this summer, are
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paying month by month for office, they're going to encourage them to go annually or get a 20% price increase that's how they combat the slowing growth numbers >> maybe that could be a catalyst ia like goggal, you love microsoft. i'm going to ask an obvious questions. why have the stocks done so poorly if everything seems to be going right about the stories, why do they still act broken? >> i think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they were trading at lofty multiples for sure and most investors are equating it with a bad tech trade it's really companies that don't have earnings. these are the companies that provide the solution they are improving productivity. productivity is going to bow an offset to labor shortage i think you want to view volatility as your friend in these two names. with google trading, growing earnings at 20% and trading at a
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20 multiple, that's going to be hard to find as earnings decelerate a more lofty valuation at 28 times and mid to high teen growth but you're in all the sweet spots of technology. not just gaming and cloud but offices and linkedin and on its own is 15 billion in revenue and woe think cyber security is one of the sweet spots in technology. take your time because this market is testy and i think it's probably going to move very volatility for the next few weeks. use options like we do in the portfolios and pick away at these things as they get hit >> so many toddler analogies i want to make i'll move on to visa stock down 6%. and standing by with more of what to watch for. >> it's the most valuable thin tech company, especially given
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the big down side we've seen in other names and it's a dow component. so, expectations are for visa to report a $1.65 in earnings per share. revenue $6.8 billion or thereabouts. of tlar interest will be information visa provides of painting the more detailed picture of the consume isser health picture and viewed by some as the best indicators of consumer health because of all the data they get on our credit card transactions. over the last aieight quarters, visa shares have been split 50/50 day after reporting. and the average span, 3.5% on those days and it's currently pricing at what could be a 5% move after the report. the expectation is for a more volatile move than recent history would suggest.
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>> and i don't think this is going to have your attention unless there's -- i don't want to say big move to the down side, because then that might change things completely >> last week we talked about american express visa is, to american express what home depot is to lowe's the industry dominant player that trades at a much higher valuation and then american express, new management, cleaning up the business it's easier for the b-minus player to out perform the a-player the valuation is still lofty, even though it's dramatically underperformed american express and the market in the trailing year but the country is exposed to russia 4% of revenue will disappear, 1% in ukraine and in addition to that, nobody's talking about this but the durbin 2.0 debit rule would
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lower earnings for this particularly company, visa in particular and that's a 2 to 3% headwind revenue we want to watch how things look for guidance but we got great readthrough on the j.p. morgan card number last week. i think there's a lot to go right but i wouldn't jump in >> not ready yet to take the plunge nancy, thanks as always, especially on a day like this. dom, thank you new home sales drop and warnings of higher costs. plus should peloton spin off its bike business? one analyst says yes, it may be one of the few options the company has. the shares areow6. dn 5% she makes her case next. ill pors and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information.
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welcome back a slew of housing data out this
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morning, including earnings from the nation's largest home builder, whose shares are down 4.5% they're out performing the market >> they beat the street's expectations but there was a red flag new orders dropped 10%. and the company lowered its order guidance on the analyst call ceo david alt tempered it saying through this cycle, yes, we've had people who don't qualify anymore, but the demand side is still strong a new report on sales of newly built homes, though, in march showed a nearly 13% drop from a year ago also, the supply of new homes for sale rose. prices, however, remain strong up 21% from a year ago dr horton also reported that while its costs are going up, its pricing power remains strong so when will all these weaker sales hit prices well, the latest s&p case-shiller report, that's for existing homes, showed prices up nearly 20% in february from a
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year ago and the annual gains just keep climbing but s&p's managing director said the macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly, and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer we may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates. so the severe shortage of homes for sale, it continues to be the wild card. it's keeping pressure on prices, but we did get a report from red fin today saying buyer competition is cooling with bidding wars dropping for the first time in six months, imagine that, kelly. >> imagine that, diana, thank you very much diana o'lek. a shift to the consumer, both retail etfs are falling as concerns about inflation continue and the potential for buyers to be eventually tapped out. on that note, let's bring in aknee sha sherman, senior analyst for apparel and specialty retail at bernstein. before we get specific, let's just talk general here the retail stocks have been
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under a ton of pressure. what do you think they're telling us >> yeah, i mean, there's been a lot of noise in the market, especially in the last couple of weeks with news in china, the situation worsening. in north america, there are a wil lot of questions about what this quarter holds in particular. this is the quarter we lack stimulus this is the quarter that inflation took off, and so there is -- that is a big uncertainty in north america i think the concerns are overdone i think the underlying consumer health remains strong. we entered the year in a strong position, and i think as we go through this month of earnings, we'll see north america outperform the various expectations the same cannot be said for china, which i think is the other reason we've seen under performance in the last few weeks. >> sure, i like how you said this is the corner that we lack stimulus and inflation really took off gaps reaction also was pretty dismal are there any stocks you think people should be buying here because they're unfairly getting kicked to the curb >> i think generally there are
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some really long-term growth stories that are being -- that are being undervalued at the moment, just on short-term concerns so nike is a good example. but this quarter is going to be -- the current quarter, which zbg is going to be reported over the next few months is going to be bearish outlook across the board. no one is spared from that. >> maybe some companies have to resort to extremes you think peloton should spin off its bike business as that stock struggles to turn around explain that thought process. >> peloton is already cutting prices on the hardware and raising prices on the subscriptions. we think that's the right move hardware is not what differentiates peloton, it's the content, the platform, it's the experience, and that is where they are unparalleled and ra raising the subscription price, i think they can continue to be competitive. cutting the hardware price gives them a lower barrier to entry for new customers. that is really where the bears
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are looking and saying, what is the tam for connected fitness. i think if we take that to its natural conclusion, i think they could stop producing hardware, partner with a company, spin off the hardware unit and focus on subscriptions where they can truly differentiate, lock in a larger number of households to its platform and continue to succeed asthe market leader. >> it has been a crazy week for former growth stories. i think at this point we can't rule anything out whether for twitter, for peloton or anybody else aneesha thanks for joining us. >> thank you. treasury yields are falling, but so are tech stocks good earnings from staples aren't lifting those names, and materials, a one-time leader, it's cracking. should investors be worried about this rotation? we're back in a moment - in the last two years, we quadrupled our team and the pace we're growing, i couldn't keep up without ziprecruiter. they do the legwork and they get my job posting in front of the right candidates.
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welcome back to another big selloff today, tech and consumer discretionary getting hit the hardest, and while energy stocks are higher, we're not seeing the rotation across the markets we might have expected. what does it mean? let's bring in bob pisani now with more. bob. >> it is a bad sign, kelly 100 point move up intraday yesterday, the s&p 100 point move down today. no follow-through at all this is now becoming common place. we've had two big rallies in the last month, only to fizzle out in a few days. bears insist that these are what they call bear market rallies meaning short uptrends in an otherwise declining market the prior market leaders, energy stocks and metals and mining stocks like halliburton, and new nucor. the combination of slowing growth and a china covid lockdown has caused a sudden drop in those market leaders they're now down double-digits in just a week though energy is bouncing a bit today. but there's no rotation.
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that's the problem beaten up tech stocks had a modest but unconvincing rally yesterday. look at them, they're getting clobbered again today ahead of microsoft's earnings, and investors have recently defensie consumer staples and health care by the way, speaking of low volatility, the darlings for those seeking so hide in the defensive names, the invesco low volatility, they own names like you will tree ya, craft heinz and phillip morris, it's been down four days in a row after hitting an historic high last week the s&p is only about 40 poth points from the march 8th low of 4771 a break below that, kelly, will solidify the belief we're in a bear market. in a bear market rotation is not nearly as effective because everything goes down so kelly, coca-cola might go down less than microsoft, but in a bear market it still goes down, and coke is down today
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despite that great earnings report >> and a good reminder, bob, as much as we're watching 4,200, 4171 is more of a key technical level as you mentioned thank you. that does it for "the exchange" today, everybody, but don't move, "power lunch" begins right now. all right, and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch," and here's what is ahead for this very busy tuesday afternoon. the selling resumes, kelly's been talking about it, markets's dramatic rebound yesterday, that's gone. that's over with the nasdaq down more than 3% ahead of big earnings from big tech, and our market guest this hour says the bottom isn't in just yet you heard what pisani just said about the signal of a bear market if the s&p goes down below its moving average inflation, pricing power, social media stocks, and dividends, that is the subject we will talk about this hour, kelly. >> yes, kind of a witches brew, if you will. thank you,

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