yep. >> pigs are very -- they're sweet creatures. >> who knew? >> they're sweet creatures and i don't like to think of what -- i'm kind of with him, although he doesn't have much mcdonald's stock, but maybe tomorrow we can talk about that. something else was going on today, i think >> make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" begins right now good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures bounce off the overnight lows as putin orders russian troops into eastern ukraine and the u.s. and eu vow sanctions and today m&a ten-year 195 the road map begins with the russia ukraine tensions sending energy markets higher. germany halting certification of that nord stream 2 gas pipeline. home depot and macy's both

reporting results before the bell don't miss the first on cnbc interview with macy's ceo. and carl icahn launching that proxy fight with mcdonald's over the treatment of pigs we will discuss, mcdonald's actually one of the companies highly levered to ukraine. >> thank you for posting that because we've got those numbers. i thought it was interesting that the really -- again, there's not that much converse there, and i do believe what you got to focus on is what's going to happen in europe. you know, i think that one of the things that i'm really tired of is this every single message that seems like putin is not going to do anything is immediately followed by the fact that putin's going to do something. he's got his soldiers ever closer i think it could end up being a fay tu comp lee, i know what the germans did, just shows me that, you know, i don't think that putin cares. they've got -- the sanctions, by

the way, david, you know, russia's a very rich country now. they've got big balance. >> well, i mean, they're an oil owe o'goply, that's really all they are. >> all right right i think we look at them, and we don't offer them anything, obviously don't want them to come in. it's not like we say nato's not going in there, okay we're just not going in there, but that would be of course sacrificing ukraine. where's the soldiers what are we doing? by the way, the head of ukraine has not really distinguished himself. >> okay. so what -- yeah. >> you're saying that the sanctions, which are fairly significant r not going to have an impact? >> it's time to -- it's time to try to figure out. >> did you guys read putin's speech it was fiery

i just think that what he said basically is look, let's get the old soviet union back again. like getting the band back, you know except for of course he's a fascist. >> i think, carl, that's where opinions split, at least amongst the people i've been speaking to when you ask a hedge fund manager to opine on geopolitics, it really doesn't matter what they say they have no idea. they're trying to figure out what to do like everybody else there are those who believe at least he can claim victory with the two regions that they now have moved into so to speak, and there are others who read this speech and say, oh, no, he's going all the way. >> i mean, look, i spent this week with 40 young entrepreneurs at dave cody's place, the former ceo of honeywell, and there's 40 different scenarios. look, my thing is we've got to get this built in. it was built in on sunday in the futures that were down 3%, so i mean, i think that could happen again, and then we have a chance for liftoff. you got to do that, though

i don't trust -- the bounce from the weekend, how about that. i just don't trust it. >> there was a lot of buy the invasion chatter people looking at gulf war ana analogs. others argue the monetary and fiscal backdrop is nowhere like it was in '91 and this would be dangerous to buy btig says a three handle on s&p in coming weeks. >> that would be big i think there are a lot of companies that are not doing nearly as well as we thought you obviously have the fed against us this is not a scenario where it's necessarily over. the partisans have guns so to speak. they'd be there in 72 hours. you're not going to be able to take -- now they're talking about 180,000 soldiers ukraine, they have an army, but that army's going to be overrun within the first two hours. >> then you got germany with this move to halt the certification of nord 2, kind of

a bold move given how much they have to lose tweeting this morning, welcome to the brave new world where europe's going to pay 2,000 euro for measures of gas here. >> you're even seeing it now in natural gas in our country because we're working overtime sending much more capacity than we thought over there, but, look, let's put it this way, i think putin has to move now because if he waits until the spring, then people aren't going to be cold >> there's every expectation if he's going to move it's going to be very, very soon, and clearly every indication is that is going to be the case but you're right, i mean, we talked, by the way, separately from this crisis, we've talked about the energy situation in europe, particularly electricity generation they've obviously been more aggressive in moving towards solar and wind the germans in particular are trying to phase that out

at the same time they made the curious decision to get rid of their nuclear, which they may be regretting right now that will be an interesting component of this if in fact, nord stream 2 never goes online. >> let's go back to what you said about the hedge funds the lack of a viewpoint means that when putin -- not if but when putin rolls those who'd want to buy that may not know any more than the people right now. it's not like you roll and you get to kyiv and they welcome the liberation it's not going to happen >> no. they don't know anything >> no. >> so what do you do if you know nothing. >> so you felt as though you believe the biden administration you fully believe that putin is actually going to invade the entire country >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, how many divisions do we have none >> jim, we're not going to defend ukraine with our people

we've made that clear. that was a reference to stalin >> how many division does the pope have. religion had a lot to do with bringing down the soviet union, the godless nation your point on the markets is a good one the hedge fund managers, some of them who get to exalted heights believe everything they think is the gospel, they are experts in all areas, but they're not >> i asked the guy, s&p trader, i said let me ask you something, what does ukraine have to do -- and he said i know with the price turning and answered nothing, didn't buy bristol, a lot of other drug companies doing better. >> there were some wells on friday ukraine gdp is equal to 16 weeks of sales at walmart to your point about the size. >> and walmart had a good quarter. >> and walmart had a good quarter. let's get to nbc reporter erin mclaughlin live from kyiv with the latest good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, carl. this morning we heard from

ukrainian president vladolodymyr zelensky trying to keep people calm, he says he believes there will be no war with russia if there is he will put ukraine on a war footing already members of parliament talking about possibly considering martial law for portions of the country. this as russian forces last night moved into the separatist controlled areas the big question outstanding this morning is will those troops push back past the line of contact into the government-controlled areas? already they've moved about 100 pieces of machinery. if they move beyond that line of contact, then of course how will the ukrainian military respond the spokesperson for the kremlin this morning was repeatedly pressed on where russia sees the borders there in donbas.

he performed some sort of verbal gymnastics refusing to be drawn on the question with ukrainian military, ukrainian people saying they're going to defend their country no matter what, carl >> erin, we appreciate the eyes on the ground. we'll rely heavily on you in the cominging days sort of related, jim, in terms of energy supply, it sort of feeds rumors that an iranian deal could be, quote, days away according to some reports, if in fact that's an offset for the exports that russia might try to hoo halt in a punitive way. >> a lot of people saying you should sell this oil bounce. what's going to happen, you're going to get a deal, i don't think the deal ramps up as quickly as people think, and it's just another opportunity, yes, to buy the oil stocks which i keep on saying are very, very good and undervalued. >> and pioneer last week saying it could go to 150 in a hurry. >> i don't know a soul anymore who thinks it's going to go back

to 85, maybe 90, but on the iranian deal we're in short supply and strong demand, and we don't know what's going to happen with china david, china, post-olympics, china could start polluting again. >> polluting again >> doing more business than they've been doing. >> oh, the economy could start to heat up a little bit more. >> think it's a possibility. >> sure it's a possibility we continue to focus on covid lockdowns in china i haven't heard of any new ones lately hong kong is obviously having an issue right now. >> if they have such -- you know, we have vaccines there, right? they have vaccines. >> yeah. so we don't know i mean, if it's an omicron breakdown, it should -- so it could course through. >> very quickly. >> that's what happened here >> yes, it is. >> i think the people don't understand that -- i'm not saying anything is a blessing in disguise because we all know people have gotten sick from omicron and it can be very bad but if you're vaccinated it's not going to be the end of the

world by in means. you have a country that could be shut down for a couple of weeks but not for a couple of years. >> you got carnival today saying masks optional starting march 1. >> wow. >> the queen, justin bieber, scott wapner >> scott wapner. >> that's a good "jeopardy!" question, right? the queen -- what is what? >> what are people who have covid but thankfully are not overly sick. enter even the queen at 96 mild symptoms and the uk is going to be the first to fully open up, no covid restrictions whatsoever in any way, shape, or form. >> well, i think, look, it's going to come to the nuisance in our country. it's going to be, look, you can do whatever you want there's a great chance that you won't have to go to hospital let's just open up completely. i wait for when you don't have to wear a mask on one of the safest places on earth, which is a plane, and you know, when you're on a plane, david, you went down to texas. >> i've been flying a lot lately, yeah >> the critical moment is when

you open your mouth to drink, so it's kind of silly, take it on, take it off. >> if you nurse say a gin and tonic from here to houston. >> you really don't have to wear your mask much. >> is that what happened >> i didn't. that's not my drink of choice. >> bourbon >> straight scotch. >> you like one of those expensive bourbons don't you >> i didn't drink on the plane >> scott wapner likes his manhattans, doesn't he >> yes, he does. >> he's got a very sore throat apparently. >> we're wishing scott the best, hoping he gets back soon. >> he's going to be fine >> he's going to be fine, what are you a doctor >> just talking about putin. >> i'm still working through the putin speech, by the way that is quite something. >> what do they want from us >> it's really dark. this is a guy who spent two years in a bunker. have you seen these meetings he has with people who are 100 feet away from him? >> because nobody wants to give

him their dna through a covid test. >> don't you get killed if you give it to him >> what does he do >> is this a rational man? >> is he a rational man? >> yes. >> after the break, we've got a lot more to get to, retail earnings, home depot, macy's dillard's, sofi calls on a, md rocket and more. don't go away. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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home depot and macy's out with their quarterly results the stocks moving in some opposite directions. coming up in the next hour, don't miss our interview with macy's ceo jeff gennette as for home depot, jim, guide's a little light. >> the guide is light, but home depot a very conservative company. the conference calls, home depot traditionally has been a conference call quarter stock meaning that you have to be on the call but i would point out, this is something that keeps happening and people got to focus on this. giant boosts in the dividend >> yes >> so you have this kind of situation where maybe the guidance is light, but which speech should speak louder the guidance or this incredible home depot dividend boost of 15%, which by the way is real money out to shareholders. >> $7.60 a year per share. >> you know, to me, home depot let someone lower price targets

tomorrow average ticket size, 12.4% the revenue is terrific. companies historically conservative i know some people feel the gross margins are weak i thought it was incredible that they had any real good growth margin because of supply chain i think it's kind of a miraculous quarter that they could get it done, but look, obviously the stock's going done people look at the chart and say it's like the ugliest chart in the book. >> a change in leadership coming up there, we should also point out. been there since 2014. it's funny when he announced his departure, that was quick. actually, eight years. >> i said jeez, what happened to me he's the average like -- >> that's by far, i think that's a little bit further than the average tenure for a ceo >> i think that jeff gennet tete's quarter, jeff has really delivered, and i think that you see that their online has delivered. i think that the blue mercury, which i was very worried about is very good bloomingdale's, which i keep

telling jeff should be emphasized more. i don't know why i like to speak to jeff because he's, i think, a very thoughtful man, has done a lot to make the balance sheet better you started with the balance sheet. i love a ceo who comes in like, you know, they work on the balance sheet first, and then they have a lot more play. they can do a lot more things. the guys who come in immediate and start saying, hey, i'm going to make new initiative, they tend to be on the scrap very quickly. >> 5% hike, $2 billion buyback any disappointment on not wanting to spend some of their digital operations. >> i know there are people who are in it for the spin i just think some of this is just such financial engineering. i go back to pat gelsinger, spin off the ev, mobile eye no, i mean, give me everything let macy's work together i know some hedge fund managers who were deeply disappointed that they didn't get the -- what would have been kind of thought to be the way to have third

party, so therefore rival of amazon i think the stock ultimately may not be up as much as it should because i think that these hedge funds who are in it say, oh, the heck with it i'm not it for merchandise. >> they're not in it for just the execution of the company's current business plan. they're in it for a, as you say, split of some kind, an event. >> the event i look at it the opposite. i like macy's very much, but home depot after it settles in, after the conference call may be the better value. >> we're going to wait for news out of the calls for sure this morning. when we come back, though, cramer's mad dash will count down to the opening bell ahead of a busy week of earnings, a lot more retail on the way along with pce on friday and some fed speak. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ ♪

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okay a little more than eight minute b before we get started with trading on a tuesday, first trading day of the week. amd, that's a name that you're somewhat familiar with. >> upgrade by bernstein, another horrible chart they go hold the buy now, it's stacy rasgone who's the ax in the semis. very rigorous, what he did was you could say, wow, he was a hold for ten years so he miss add great run or you could say, listen, it's down 30% from it high it's time to pull the trigger. i agree with him, and i agree with him because last week intel had a meeting and they said, listen, we're not going to really be competitive in the data data that's not really their words, that's mine for several years, and that's the sweet spot for amd. you've got -- you've got to have -- let's just say you have

an opportunity here that you have not had before, and it's open season. i kind of really like this trade. now my travel trust owns it. we'll be talking about it at the cnbc investing call. we did have lisa su on as our first club guest look, i think you could say, yeah, down 30% probably one of the worst acting stocks in 2022 why not? why not buy some it's doing incredibly well you've got the xilinx deal closed. >> yes >> i need to ask you about softbank i just keep hearing that the arm deal was really important for them >> youm mean getting that deal would have been important for them they've got a number of issues at softbank. >> they have issues? >> yeah. nothing -- yeah, issues. >> issues is good. but that's very -- >> i mean, the main one's probably alibaba has conned to climb -- >> i just think we ought to talk about that i like this call very much don't pay up for anything here it's crazy the people who sold the futures down 3%, they're going to be back if only just to make

themselves look better and by the way, you know what, those people, i hesitate to call them this, but they're stooges i mean, who trades down 3 and the answer is, you know, mo, larry, and curly and by the way, don't forget -- >> don't forget we have an opening bell, it's just a few minutes away don't forget this also you can catch us anytime, anywhere, if you want to even listen to it again we know a lot of people who listen over and over again. >> they're glued to it they can't get enough of it. the people in my mentions column, love you. >> that's our "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast, we're back right after this.

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the data we have seen since that time have only increased the urgency to get on with the process of normalizing our interest rate stance and significantly reducing the size of the federal reserve's balance

sheet. i support raising the federal funds rate at our next meeting in march, and if the economy evolves as i expect it to, additional rate increases will be appropriate in the coming months i as all of my colleagues will as well, be watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase at the march meeting. >> and of course we'll get pce on friday. that was federal reserve governor michelle bowman talking about the path for hikes sounding a little bit more like bullard investor. >> look, i just think we got to get this stuff over with before we can rally i have been saying that, look, it's obviously going to hurt the market, but after it's over with and we have the hike and then maybe have a big decline, then you really do have a great moment, and i just don't buy that everything's bad. i just don't buy that. i think we got to crush the supply chain problems. but right now people are putting through price increases that are incredible everybody and the fees don't roll back.

that's one of the reasons the second quarter's going to be bad. i don't want to give up on this market a lot of people are really furious, upset, angry, and sad about the stock market, and my reaction to that is get used to it it's a different market. >> yeah. last week walmart said it's starting to roll back some prices in consumer electronics and dry grocery. wells thinks that could be a sign of finally consumers beginning to ballk. >> doug mcmillon was fabulous on that call. people should go listen to him i love the home depot call doug mcmillan said this is our time they can handle the rollbacks. i don't know if you know walmart, oh, shoot, you did the age of walmart >> i did two documentaries, but it's been a long time and companies do change. i wouldn't claim to be an expert on the current walmart. >> that's a great stock to buy on big -- because they really have a handle on things. you know, i just think that

they're very impressive right now. >> you have said that. you have said that previously. >> and did you guys see downfall about boeing >> i want to see it. >> devastating >> netflix, right? >> yeah, must be watched there's the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange, at the big board it's umh property celebrating its commitment to provide affordable housing for 54 years at the nasdaq it's microsoft in recognition of black history month, speaking of housing and rates and analysts calls today, jim, i know you've seen the b of a downgrade of rocket down to neutral. >> look, rocket has been one of the worst stocks of this period. this is the exact opposite of what you need right now with the fed raising rates, fewer transactions coming, you ever look at the ownership structure of rocket? >> no, actually i haven't.

>> i regard it as very anti-shareholder, very pro a guy i really love. >> dan gilbert. >> if rates are going down and housing going up, it's the stock to buy so then you have the opposite obviously. >> it has not been a good performer to say the least. >> i'd say it's been one of the worst performers in this entire market. >> it was one of the largest ipos of all time. >> yes, it is. >> and dan was here, by the way this is a great company. that's why i said if you thought rates were going down, i mean, they have tremendous, tremendous fire power and they're a very good lender. that is in the big banks this is the kind of stock that hedge funds just say, you know what, i am not touching. rates are up this is the one to sell. and they're selling it, and they're shorting it, and it doesn't stop just doesn't stop. >> by the way, it's not to neutral, it's to underperform at

b of a >> talk about devin. devin is one of the stocks dave reported last week, and it was a monster quarter, and they're very hedged and but the main thing which doesn't actually hurt them, but that's all right, they make a lot of money the main thing to know about the devon, the $30 cost of capital >> on last week on "squawk on the street." >> you decided to do it right when i did my cnbc investing club and that's not like him he's usually deferential it's a joke. it's a joke. >> got it. you okay >> i have to cough can i cough? is that all right? >> i'll take this moment to speak for three seconds. >> have the coffee >> that's enough about the coffee hey, david, why don't you talk. >> sure, jim, i'd love to. we do have a number of deals this morning, none of which rise to a particular level that we would consider them to be a lead, but there is a pace of

deal making. which would you prefer to -- >> i have 3 years old on "mad money," they called me, and i said this is like a $35 stock masquerading as a $17 stock. >> now it's a 3650 deal. it's about total transaction value, there's about 3.7 billion, but you can see a significant premium, not a deal that had been discussed or where you have to say, well, actually, let's take this premium back to when, you know, it first became known. just this morning, and you can see that the reaction in meritor's stock price. this is a significant one at this point i don't have a lot of background on this at this point. they're talking about a 48% premium, so the trading price as of last week >> well, it's a prosaic company. those are the things that are in most demand, and it is incredibly well-run, and it's

one of those companies, more than it does now, they've made all these great changes and the stock didn't move. so a predator then circles, and cummins, which is a great american company recognized more than anyone else that it's worth more than them than it is to the stock market david, is this the kind of thing that will be reviewed heavily by both the ftc and -- >> i would assume so. >> so therefore you take a two-year perspective >> i don't know if you take that long of a perspective. i have no sense of the potential overlaps and whether there is a significant antitrust question here, but every deal at this point has to be thought of as potentially at least that review has to be thought of as a roadblock. >> let me ask you -- >> -- because of the aggressive posture of our antitrust regulators those days. >> let's say you're activision blizzard, and they're trying to block it, and you take a iit to court, david, every single case, all the case law says that that deal should be done. clearly thecase law does

matter it's not just like the agency says block it. >> no, you've got to rely on the law. there are vertical integration guidelines that have been issued, which, you know, can be taken into account, but you're right, jim, the law is ultimately what you're going to be relying on if, in fact, you do choose to go to court, if in fact, you were to get opposition from the government. >> so it's not a done deal. >> united health care and remember that deal with change that's coming up, that ten-day clock is running we're going to see more of these situations where the companies in question have to make that decision. >> yes >> now, there are plenty of people who for whatever reason believe activision, microsoft have a very difficult path the law is the law, if microsoft

chooses to it is microsoft, they understand how to work against the government >> i'm quite confident -- >> 395 bucks by the way. >> if i were in arbitration, which i'm certainly not, i would buy that one >> there are plenty who move in there. it is an enormous spread, even with that. even with let's call it 14, 15 months ahead of it >> a big deal in publishing. >> i wanted to tell you there was some other expressing some interest it was a very short process. it was only eight or nine days, but they did reach out to a number of other companies. there's company a, company b, company c, d we can make some guesses some people think maybe company a was sony, company d might have been amazon. none of them ultimately came through with another offer, and obviously they went exclusive with microsoft, which had made the initial approach on activision blizzard which we've talked about, but we did get the background and the proxy, which was kind of interesting reading. you know, we talked about premiums and the cummins meritor

deal 48%, jim, of course off of just last week, right? friday, basically. on techna, they're going back and saying it's a 39% premium to the unaffected closing share price as of september 14th, 2021 i thought that was going back quite a ways. >> yes >> to your unaffected stock price off of >> oh, my. that's when we got the first potential idea that tegna could get bought they're calling it 5.4 billion equity value, 8.6 billion enterprise, that is of course when you add in debt and interesting to note, we have some activity on the part of private equity that is where we see so much m&a these days the financing is still there sometimes from the sources that have not been typical in the past the banks not as often a part of this as are some of these dedicated fixed income funds and

the like that are seeing a real opportunity in financing buyouts of this -- >> how much capital do you think they have? >> who >> the private equity firms. >> they got a lot. >> i'm talking others. i mentioned it way back in the stance.com deal, now it's become so much more typical when you see sort of the financing behind -- and some of these other cases not. and finally, houghton miff lynn, i think of them as a textbook company, now they're a learning technology company they're committed to delivering connected solutions to engage le learners. >> that company has been kicking around for a long time. >> for a long time v veritas capital 21 bucks a share. 36% premium. this time the unaffected share price as of january 13th, which may have been the first time we learned this was a possibility, some sort of a leak or other. >> so there you have a quick

rundown. again, all not particularly large deems. one strategic with cummins, two fairly sizable equity, 3 to 5, $6 billion or so and -- that's the rap on m&a for this morning. >> i have been adamant that the shorts feel like there's nothing to worry about because of the justice department, and because of the ftc these deals make me think when you're shorting one of these smaller companies that's in the russell or something, be careful. you know, it may not be the pot of gold. some of these companies are very valuable to other companies if not valuable to the stock market in the meantime, i find it so beleaguering in faang these days, you pick up a paper and see how apple's going to get killed in congress or obviously metaverse, there's nothing going right. netflix, the accounting issues not so good. >> well, i mean, meta is down 39% this year, and netflix is down 36%

>> right but is that enough at this point? >> i think yes i think yes, and i didn't feel that way initially because when you went over that conference call, obviously any company that says we're going to take -- you could argue that conference call said we're going to take a $25 billion hit, not 10 billion. from what i hear about the metaverse, it is going to be very exciting and i do think you're betting that going to accomplish the destruction or the setback of tiktok. i'm on tiktok now. so now it's late in the game >> you're on tiktok? >> people send me tiktoks all the time >> this is the top >> when a guy like me -- >> 57 or however old you are. >> >> it's all yellow jacket from here. >> you've got to move on. >> i'll tell my daughter, my 16-year-old daughter, it's time. she'll get off immediately. >> it will be a disaster to tell her. she'll go right on reels. >> that's remarkable

time spent, user growth, there's few metrics that any other social media company has been able to match. >> and by the way, bytedance itself, tell me where the market is is it a $450 billion market value? could it be half a trillion? who knows. >> let's go back to alibaba. >> what you will hear from some of its competitors is they haven't even started monetizing yet truly what carl's talking about. >> the roi on tiktok is incredible >> it's that ai. somehow they've figured something out as a way to continue -- >> these kids what they want. >> why can't mark figure it out? >> i will take nothing away from his ability to do that >> speaking about the ceo. >> and i do think that he will, and i think that by the third quarter you're going to see the changes he makes and, therefore, i am on board. >> the small position from the 20s, i mean for my travel trust,

but i think you've got to be very interested. zuckerberg's not, he's not sitting back right now surfing, and by the way, i wouldn't want to work there right now. i don't think he's sitting around saying, hey, how about a couple of quas >> 201.56 this morning. >> i like it under 200. >> under 200. >> under 200. >> you want to talk at all about icahn and pigs from mcdonald's. >> 200 shares. he owns 200 shares, that's it. >> statement is very odd >> although in this case, i do feel badly for the pigs. >> you feel bad for pigs >> i do. i do. >> apparently it's very personal >> they're very smart. >> i met a pig that knew 365 words. >> can you imagine doing that? >> was he your dog >> and i told the thing open the gate open the gate. if there was a window, spoke many languages >> there's no way nvidia would have been able to do that. >> no, you got it so right i haven't thought about nvidia

>> that was his dog i was referring to >> pigs are brilliant. they know as much as about ukraine as the hedge fund managers >> sharply lower open this morning, obviously as putin orders those troops into eastern ukraine, white house now on the record saying that it is, in fact, an invasion, even with all the covert presence that russia's had theres for years. we're sitting just about 100 points above those january 24th lows by the way, you can always get in on the cnbc investigationing club with cross-camer at cnbc.com/jointheclub

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welcome back to "squawk on the street," rick san tour february preliminary read on markets, pmis, on the manufacturing side 57.5, 57.5, of course, this sequentially follows 55.5, which was the weakest since october of 2020, so a nice rebound. 56.7 on the services pmi, well better than the 53 expected sequentially following 51.2, 51.2, which was the lightest read since july of 2020, and finally, the composite read, nice improvement, 56.0 versus 51.1 we still have conference board confidence yet to come out suffice it to say, the yield curve is steepening, much more ngying of short maturities than lo maturities, and "squawk on the street" will return in two minutes.

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elorne musk accusing the sec. stay tuned, last week, they had more choice words for the sec, jim, accusing him to thwart his

right to free speech. >> yeah. i think it's just not worth haggling with the sec. elon is doing such a great job i mean, i totally understand mark cuban at one point us the the l l led tussled with them. he's a great man, stay focused stay focused. >> you can say the same thing to the sec, they're doing weird rule-making for fund disclosures. it's weird to me, crypto, so many things where we're still weight, we're waiting. >> and a lot of people feel she off the reservation. >> yes. >> i don't but he's real le going full force on a lot of issues >> he is, these are sophisticated investors in these funds, why has this become such an obsession >> i think i'm going to have to get to the bottom of that it doesn't make sense. >> okay. >> still feeling the fallout

from credit suisse over the week about the banks and things we still don't fully understand session highs here down 128. let's go to bob pisani >> there is no confusion how the market in general. again the leaderboard on sectors. energy stocks, energy started right here a historic high and quickly came off of those highs. it was much more at the open maybe a little less anxiety about the impact on commoditie because of what they're seeing in russia. healthcare, semi is trying to bounce back after a terrible week last week china is down again, regulatory concerns in the tech sector in china. msci hilt its high a year ago. china has had a disastrous year that is continuing into 2022

as for where the money is, the momentum is? it's all in the commodity place f. you look at the metals and mining indoppler 6000 that thing has been on fire, probably up 10/12% anything in oil services is up 20-to-30% so far this year brazil, caribbeaning rich countries like brazil and south african are also very strong metals year-to-date, when would you think you would see alcoa as a leader in the s&p 500. anything alluminum, metals space, specialty metals company, also up 49%. most of the steel names are up 8, 9, 10, 12%. the energy names moves up, particularly in the high beta energy stocks, marathon oil, devon, these are high beta names. they tend to move more than the energy complex any given day those are not toips, everything you see up about 30% as for the marks, one thing the traders seem to agree on with

this russia confusion has reduced the chances of a 50 basis point rate hike in march everyone wants to believe that whether it's true or not is unclear. that's where a lot of people seem to be over the weekend. the growth is very strong. they want to look for signs of slowing. you saw from rick's report, it's not happening. earnings are still strong. interestingly coming down for the first quarter, still going up in the second and third quarter. that's because analysts want to believe we will have a crazy strong spring reopening. why shouldn't you believe that we are getting crazy prices for spring break i returneded from florida, i have been going to key west, miami, 40 years. i never seen prices like this hotel rooms $3500, february good hotel rooms $1,000 all of them sold out, all of them 100% full crazy. did you see marriott ceo talking this morning he said, we've seen no slowdown

in leisure demand, we've seen record levels. he hit it exactly right. guys, let's hope that this slows down a little. because that kind of prices for hotel rooms and food that i saw in miami, that's persistent inflation. that's a little bit worrisome. carl, back to you. >> thank you for that. let's go to jim for stock trading. >> the breakers for medium size, we have to okay at the menu prices, i think they added a zero goodyear tire, i mention this, these guys were on, this is a supply chain nightmare they were on "mad money", in fact, they were going to make a on the of money. now pre-cash flow to zero. this is an economy stock versus a work day today there is a lot of the kind of just classic snowflakes that are doing so well. as soon as oil turned down, they moved on, as soon as bonds turned, you know, rates might

not, i mean, i got to tell you, this market is just run by machines. >> why, what makes you say that? >> what do you go by work day? go to college and get stupid that is just ridiculous. >> you think theiral alab algorm makes no sense >> they just get whipsawed more than -- all they do is get whipsawed. >> sometimes the playbook is shallow, the computer doesn't have a lot to play on. >> there is 50 shares and trading. they xanl rate everything, there is no search to buy interest "mad money" is back? >> yes, oh my, thank heavens that's one i told you was a buy, mattel. >> you have getlin on, too

>> i love gitlin. >> an investor day this morning, right? >> yes, i think he is doing terrifically the stock does not reflect that, who wants that the supply chain can we stipulate bob's supply chain, we can go by met is that, facebook >> are you the supply chain. >> yes. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. >> all right here's the budget. >> coming up in the next hour, we'll take with macy's jeff gennette they like the pmi number, two-month high, the viha unced off 30 wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.

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matching your job description. feel stuck with your finances? ♪ ♪ move your money to sofi. you could earn up to $2,230 when you download the app, and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪ welcome back to "squawk in the street". rick santelli here with live breaking news. richmond fed, the february read on the manufacturing index comes out at one we were expect ac number closer to ten one is the weakest number since september of last year unlike the market, pmi not stronger than expected

for the big one, conference board, 110.5 this is a bit better than expectations and if we look at the present situation 145.1, that sequentially followed 146th.2. the 110.5 follows 113.8, finally our expectations index 87.5 follows 90.8, skweps official are lower, arguably lighter. heavier on the headline, certainly something to pay attention to as many are trying to differentiate one that feel good feeling may come back we are getting revisions to next month. none good. headline 113.8, downgraded to 111.1. the other two metrics, both are less than they were ultimately released, which means not only is this added proof, sequentially higher at 145.1

versus our new revision at 134.5. it doesn't change the notion these numbers, whether geopolitical or remnants of omicron are a bill new york stock exchangy back to you. >> rick, thank you for that. good tuesday morning, welcome to another "squawk on the street" with morgan brennan and david faber. let's try to get into the green on that better ecodata, marks all around the world have been moved by russia's eastern ukraine. they've had serious losses overnight. >> we will be talking about that here are three big movers we are watching we will start with home depot, narrowly boosting the dividend 13%. the home improvement company sayssales growth will be quote slightly positive in the coming year, eps expected as well, it night be a little light. shares are down about 5%, leading the dow and s&p lower e.

then draftkings reversing early losses analysts concerned about a path to profit 5e7b9, gaming stock is down 35%, 36% for the year it's now positive a half of a percent. then another retailer, macy's is jumping, handling the estimates, boosted gross margins, too, announcing a buyback program you can see those shares up 8% do not miss a first on cnbc interview with macy's chairman steve gennette in about 15 minutes. >> we will start with ukraine, tensions consider to rise as russia sent in troops. the white house calling that move an invades vacation elon moy is in washington and has the latest. >> world leaders are research

eting up their response as saying president putin violated international law. uk prime minister boris johnson announced sanctions on five russian banks and three billionaires he called russia's deployment of truth into the donbas region a renewed invasion of ukraine. the united states has been hesitant to use this word, invasion, pointing out russia has had people thereabi eight years. they believe these moves meet that criteria. that can be significant, president biden said an invasion is the threshold for a number fledge package of devastating sanctions on russia. germany is convinced to pull the in order nord treatment 2 pipeline today. >> the signature today looks fundamentally different. that means with regard to the latest development, we need to

reassess the situation but this is the first necessary step to make sure the pipeline cannot be satisfied at this point in time and without this application nord stream 2 cannot operate. >> white house press secretary jen psaki said they willi be following up with different measures today >> out of curiosity, these sanctions are to take effect around have an impact on russia. do we know how long that process taxi it sure seems eek the clock is ticking here. >> reporter: yeah, unclear exactly how long all of this could take to have russia, russia feels that economic impact certainly, this has been the debate all along how soon do you impose sanctions? ahead of invasion? after, now it seems like the choice has been made for the president and for other leaders around the world. >> all right elon moy, bringing us the latest from d.c we will turn back to the broader marks where the major average is

fractionally lower right now joining us is credit suisse chief strategist and capital management davis it feels like there are three key pillars we have been talking about quite some time moving equities that is earnings, geopolitics and the fed and the intersection of all three how are you gaining those out and where do you expect major averages to go from here >> you know, as much as right now we are feeling an awful lot of tension in markets, we're optimistic we put a note out, which highlighted that corporate profit, the projections for 2022 are up something like 2.5% now compared to the beginning of the year even though the market's off by 9% or so, so that side looks pretty good. as far as the fed is concerned, you know, if given the

inflation, if they didn't acknowledge the situation and if they didn't talk about getting off zero interest rate, then i think we'd have something to worry about, much more the fact that the fed is looking to move interest rates 2% over the next couple years. >> nancy, what's so key about this russian ukraine situation is the fact that it comes in the midst of what was already a perfect storm for inflation, for example, the fed moving to tighten, tighten how aggressively, what does this ratcheting geosituation mean for fed policy i guess how is the bopped market and these details such as yours factoring this in? how does that play out. >> morgan, i think you said it well, the cost is ticking. we have a lot of unknowns out there whether it's the geopolitical situation or the fed's policy, itself i think the big unknown is really the balance sheet and

whether the fed gets more active and vocal after the march hike with balance sheet reduction right now, there are so many hikes that have been priced in already into the mark and we still have inflation prints. but i think this is the time the fed is going to have to pivot and do more and it's probably not with just rate hikes >> we have a tough time of figuring out the geopolitical movements like the ones we are watching right now what does history tell us in how we should approach what's going on between ukraine and russia? >> i think you hit upon it, when i talked to whether there are mutual shop funds or hedge funds. they say focus on the fundamental that this is going to be the source of near-term volatility but over the long run, the fundamentals will win out. so i am not seeing an obsession on these i will tell you that's not the

case with folks who are engaged in energy markets or those expose years because, obviously, it's a bit more impactful there in terms of broad-based earnings or economy, we saw recently, these numbers, these pmi numbers came out super strong. we will see slightly stronger inflation prints to certify oil prices i don't think the long-term story is any different >> nancy, although a lot has been priced in a lot are drawing comparisons to the recent action in '17 when you had a fed tight noon a slowdown some say that would imply an s&p handled sometime in march. these an lalogs don't always wo. >> i think the market has to keep in mind they haven't done anything they are tapering, still buying

bonds. qv is still going on we haven't started the quantity taiftative tightening -- quantitative tightening. chairman powell is ahead of the fed. we had a different president the rates marketed had three hikes and the fed cut rates, i think it's an interesting opportunity with the geopolitical issues to actually look at the fed hawkish goivenlts you have 7.5 rate hikes already priced in. and i think it's a unique opportunity for strategies that can benefit from the steepening of the yield curve, whether lower or higher long-dated yields, which risk or mon environment. >> we talk a lot about diversification on this network. what does that mean to you >> well, i think when investors

have a lot of corporate exposure, equities or bonds you know i am a big proponent of a diversifier as well as interest rates, so much balance sheet is tied to inflation andrates i think it presents a unique opportunity. the rates markets are fully priced in a disinflationary outcome. the market does not believe inflation will stick around. >> we got an interesting year ahead of us, don't we? thanks for joining us to kick off the hour, naerns and jonathan. still to come, a first on cnbc interview, stock has been steady for several months, today's actions will make it pretty much the highs of the year so far post-earnings, "squawk on the street" is back after this

after this

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to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask. show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com . macy's chairs i shares getting a nice pop after the company's fourth quarter results were ahead of estimates. the retailer also saying it does not plan to spin off it's commerce business. for more on the corner, let's head over to the chairman and ceo. courtney. >> thank you very much, david. thank you, jeff, for being here with us today. i appreciate you being with us as always. i want to drill down to the sales results, really strong numbers.

we know inflation is playing a part in your numbers as well as retailers and other companies across the board help us understand more what went on with the numbers, are consumers buying more? is unit price higher how does retail growth fapthor in >> courtney, thank you for having me on i say the staple consumer is healthy. what i saw during the last year and pandemic is emerging from it those categories are strong, continue to be strong through the pandemic and the dormant categories have bounced back as you saw from our post, average unit retail is up 11% in 2021 i expect it to be half that in '22. we do expect inflation what we are focused on is the customer is the winner here. we want to make sure we respond to all the customer needs. we got lots of opportunities to improve on our margins because

of our data science versus now versus where we used to be so we are buying less, sourcing better, using the customer data, personalization, marking down better at the end of the day we're continuing the frietrend we stad in 2021. >> the customer is one stake holder you have to listen to, so, too, were shareholders, some were interested in separating ecommerce from the legacy business of macy's you said the determination has decided that is not the go forward plan for macy's. can you explain why that is a little bit and why that makes sense, is that why the activist donors lowered their stakes. what should they understand combining going forward? >> first off, they look at the

whole opportunity for value creation and certainly intensify our efforts and brought in our partners to pressure test it again. we have two objectives, one is how do we show short, medium and long-term value? we want to shake make sure the customer was covered in all touch points it was a comprehensive unconstrained review we didn't put parameters on it we asked our advisers to come back and look at everything. what we came back with is united, operating as an integrated company versus a separated digital and brick and mortar made the most sense we looked at that, with the board, what was convincing was three big factors. one was the separation costs one was the additional costs you get with operating, separating digital and brick and mortar businesses as well as the execution risks. and what it also gave us the

opportunity that was the pressure test polaris. our strategy of record or other opportunities to accelerate items to drive more shareholder value. that was digital with mark place. that is what we're doing with personalization and the loyalty program and new and exciting new categories and what i say is at the end of the day, macy's would be much stronger, financially able company than we were before the pandemic and before the strategy was launched when i look at that you think about the free cash flow we will generate there are 3 billion there. we have $3 billion to capex. we are not capital constrained to address the needs of our billions so that was the conclusion that we reached >> okay. you know, there is obviously always a lot of talk about the digital component being the growth engine. you are 39% of total sales coming from digital. that was up from two years ago

but down from the peak of the pandemic have we seen sort of that peak penetration for the amount of sales that will come from online >> yes so, courtney, i think it will continue to grow you might see it subside a little in 2022 i think we are looking at 37%. we do expect it to grow into the 40s. we had the second largest website in our categories in america and we're about to add marketplace, which is going to be accretive of that, so a $10 billion target by the end of 2023 in marketplace or excuse me in all of digital and incremental comes with marketplace. so it will grow into the 40s >> jeff, it's david faber. i know you have simone positively about your return of tourists physical shopping you can give us a sense to what backs up sort of that view and it might mean for the second half of this year. >> hi, david, when you think of our overall tourism business at

macy's and bloomingdales, it's 3% of the total billions so think about us getting half of that back in 2021 the bulk of that or a big chunk coming through digital you know, customers from international zip codes using the website to take care of their needs. so, we do not have any of that remaining half built into our '22 forecasts. i think what we are seeing it will come more in the 2023 time frame. if it does accelerate, we'll be ready for it it affects certain macy's stores, certain bloomingdale stores than others, particularly in our urban downtown marks. we saw a blip in december where it got better, with omicron, it subsided again we're watching it carefully, looking at all the tourism, statistics, hospitality, the book travel as well as hotels. we will be ready >> jeff, lastly, if we can close out looking at the press to

margins, the supply chain is a drag for many, many companies. yours included where do you aim for profitability to ends up i know you were below 2019 how was the supply chain that factored into them in. >> you heard us talk about we will have a double ebitda. we 45d the best rate in 2021, the share was 2014 and you know certainly gross margin is impacted by shipping expenses from a very developed digital and growing digital business we also have margin expansion with our pressing signs. so expect us to continue to be able to expand what we are doing with merchandise margin, but that's going to mit date some of the issues we will have additional shipping expense. sgna we got that base down. you saw the improvements we made versus pre-pandemic levels we'll continue to be very, very

frugal with our sgna and things that matter to most of the customers. >> got it. macy's ceo jeff gennette, thank you for joining us on cnbc on yoir your earnings day. >> thank you, courtney. >> thanks to jeff and courtney coming up, energy prices high after the nord stream 2 pipeline ro hamtd from russia directly to eupe we got more on that after the break.

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time for etf spotlight take a look at the discretionary xly, under performing the third largest holding is mcdonald's, carl icahn pushing for board seats for better position. he is working with the humane society to force change there. mcdonald's is highly levord relative to other companies, to russia/ukraine 4% of global revenue puts it in the top ten with pepsi and not only that,

with pepsi and not only that, back with the latest wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq >> ♪♪ ♪♪

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so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. invasion is an invasion. that's what a white house spokesperson said about separatists troops moving into ukraine, it sets the stage for strong sanctions against moscow. some residents celebrated driving through the city with russian flags on their car germany is putting on hold approval for the nord stream 2

pipeline to link supplies. in georgia, a federal hate crimes trials of the three men convicted of killing ahmed aubrey a u.s. supreme court says it will hear a colorado case pitting religious beliefs against a law prohibiting lbgt people is the website designer's first amendment rights to free speech violated by an anti-discrimination law that prevents her from expressing her opposition to same-sex marriages on the website for her business. >> rahel, thank you for that for more on the situation on the ground in ukraine. let's get back to erin mclaughlin live in kyiv. >> reporter: hey there, charm. this morning, we heard ukranian presid volodymyr zelenskyy say he does

not think there will be a war, but they will be on well footing. they are talking about declaring marshall law in parts of the countries. this is all eyes are on the donbas area of ukraine where russian troops are pouring into the separatist-controlled portion of done donetsk, will ty get into territory, the cost of the operation already being tallied, the west announcings sanctions with the opening salvo coming from germany with the cancellation of the nord stream 2 pipeline the europeans putting their sanctions on the table those discussions happening later today. of course, there is also the political costs that russia is already paying, especially when you consider who president zelenskyy has been talking to he

has been s smoking to the president of france, the british prime minister, the turkish president. the prime minister of hungry who has russian president vladimir putin been talking to? the president of kazakhstan. there are economic costs tal lid, political costs tallied here in kyiv, people are saying this could potentially impact russian president vladimir putin's next step. morgan >> thank you we are also walking the aerodefense contractor stocks move higher, general dynamics and raytheon technologies, joining us commander ben hodges, general hodges, thanks for being with us this morning i see a number of analyst's mosts out this morning suggesting we are now moving into this fast-moving forecast thing. roman schweitzer at cowan weighs

out two special scenarios, this is either a prelude to a wider invasion or a potential way for russia's putin to do something before stepping back from the brink and engaging in further goess, how do you see it >> i like that second course of action i think it's much more feasible and likely this is a continuation of what russia started in 2014 when they first invaded ukraine. they never left. and the aim here for the kremlin is to collapse the ukrainian government and they're going to do it by collapsing the ukrainian economy. so think about a boa constricter that's wrapped itself around the body of ukraine. with all of these troops, significant russian navy out there disrupting traffic in and out of ukrainian ports, always the threat of a massive assault, i don't think that's likely if the russians can achieve what they want without actually having to launch this big attack

towards kyiv that have been forecasted, because that will be very bloody and, practically, i don't think it will be successful >> sanction are on the table the u.s. and its allies are issuing these penalties. heaven forbid this were to escalate, you were to see russia begin to expand in the ukraine right now. how would a military scenario potentially play out from here >> well, i hope that all of our government by the way, i have to say, i am impressed that germany has pulled the certification process of the nord stream 2 the uk dropped a hammer on russian banks, of course, the united states' sanctions began last night this is so poverty but it's also if you allow me, it's important that our leaders are preparing our populations. this is going to be expensive for us we can be sure that russia will retaliate with cyberstrikes against all of us. so the resilience of our own

populations is going to be important here the kremlin feels they cannot accomplish what they want by this slower long drawn out approach, i would anticipate am fib began operations that would connect the occupied territories north of mariopol to crimea, perhaps along the black sea coast, but really i'm going to keep my eye on belarus i think while we are watching ukraine, the russians are taking the next stems to go ahead and finish establishing the union state, whereas belarus is actual le absorbed into russia. putin becomes the president of all of it. he never has to worry about another election now we got thousands of russian troops against the corridor, threatening our baltic allies. >> deterrents and the perception seems to be key here in this

entire process and negotiations playing out, whether it's missile defense, installations that the u.s. is putting in place, in poland, for example, which allegedly seems to be a sticking point for putin whether it's the fact you saw these tests over the weekend by russia that included hypersonic capabilities, the u.s. is racing to fields right now. the fact that we just saw tanks, abrams tanks approved by the biden administration as well to poland on friday, general dynamics-made tanks. how does that continue to evolve and what does that mean i guess for the defense spending piece of the puzzle? >> look, this is a kind of a wake-up calm i know that phrase gets used a lot. of so many people that have ha a hard time getting their head around the idea in the 21st century, a european leader would use force to change borders poisoned against his political open six so finally, our european allies,

frankly, a lot of people in washington are waking up these are bad guys so we need to take the necessary steps to deter further aggression you made a great point at the beginning of your question deter insurance is in the mind of the potential aggressor do i think it will be too costly or that i might even fail to do something and we disarmed ourselves, basically at the end of the cold war. all of russia's aggression has happened after the u.s. army, the u.s. air force, the german army, the british army, we all felt we could cooperate with russia and be partners they're not interested in that they're interested in domination and advantage and so what that means for us you got to go back in there, air and missile defense would be the top priority for me and also transporting the ability to rapidly reenforce. those would be my top two

priorities. >> to wrap all of this up. as someone that has had extensive ground in the region, is this time is of the essence or going to your boa constricter fet a more for this to work out over the weeks or months in. >> yes and yes we feed to be doing something that looks like this berlin air lift in terms of bringing in capability to the ukrainian armed forces clearly, the kremlin has demonstrated they have zero respect for us unless you punch them in the nose and use force to deter them, to demonstrate the capability so we need to keep doing this for ukraine. but also we need to think about, okay, what happens where are we in three months six months a year so much we have been looking at at this time world ended if two weeks. instead we need to think longer term how to we strengthen defense inside the alliance? >> general hodges, thank you for joining us today

we appreciate your insight. >> thanks for the prif vilege >> energy prices are seeing impact from the russian developments tensions are continuing to case late joining us is the senior energy analyst pavel molchanov. if there is a full invasion, what will that do to energy prices >> russia produces 10% of the world's oil. half goes into the european mark as a safe bet, those pipelines are not going to be functioning during that kinetic phase of an all out war. not safe and frankly some of them are likely to get bombed. so that's 5% of the world's oil offline. all else being equal that can add 20 to $25 a barrel on top of what is already close

to $100 oil price. >> you know, as of right now, of course, nord steam 2 has been halted specific to energy prices in europe you are, generating electricity there. this is an area trying to be more dependable on renewables. what will be the impact of nord stream 2 not operating obviously, it wasn't operating yet. the prospect that it won't and the potential of an all-out invasion again >> yes so natural gas is even more exposed to an all-out war. because 75% of russia's gas exports go into the european mark again by pipeline, which is what would be directly disrupted in the event of war.

keep in line multiple pipelines go through ukraine or belarus. in other words, a war zone so natural gas is already four times more expensive in europe than it is in the u.s. even without the worst case scenario we are talking about here and the most impactful response that we're going to be seeing from the european governments starting with germany on down is to reduce diplomacy on russian and especially natural gas as much as possible so, for example, germany gets 40% of electricity today from renewables the new deposit is targeting 80% by the end of the decade if that happens, that is very bad news for gas from and the russian federal budget, which is

largely funded by them it's going to disinvades tang him the european economy from this very high level of historical reliance on russian fossil fuels and that is more damaging to the kremlin than any immediate sanctions that, you know, biden or schultz or maron are going to be putting in. >> i wonder, pennsylvania, if yapavel, they have tried to push them aside and say we can't make this transition too quickly? >> so, in europe, the countries that are the most dependent on russian fossil fuels are also the ones that are the most dependent on fossil fuels period, which is to say in eastern europe, poland,

bulgaria, romania, hungary, czech czerepublic, slovakia this is the geourgency merges with climate action. so the two things are pointing in the same direction. if you want to be less dependent on russian fossil fuels, you need to be less dependent on fossil fuels from any source germany is leading the way you know, needless to say, we've seen places like the uk and denmark doing it even longer but eastern europe has gotten a very potent wake-up calm as, indeed, the general mentioned a few minutes ago, again the number one thing they can do today even without an all-out war in europe is to push as much investment into electric vehicles, wind, solar, bio max

as quickly as possible. >> we appreciate your help in doing that pavel thank you. >> thank you as we head to brake, let's check on digital world acquisition, the spac backed by former president trump's social media venture, surging in the social, the actual app launches, you can see the shares are moving up, remember one of the larger pipes we see a billion dollars allows them to buy pipe at $33.60 or a 40% discount to the ten-day weighted average after close. we'll see if it even happens, though remember, there is still significant sec review here, this transaction, given the potential they were talking prior to when they should have it's not stopping those shares,

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welcome back to "squawk in the street." we're sticking with russia and geopolitical tensions. joining us to discuss j.p. morgan political strategist david kelly. i appreciate your time today david, we will hear from the white house at 2:00 p.m. eastern time, further remarks, maybe clarity on the path of sanctions. is the number one concern right now potential disruption to the energy markets and what that might do to global inflation and confidence in. >> no, i think the one is they will go further and fully invade all of ukraine, including trying to take over kye ev. it has a huge impact that is on a scale different than what's happened so far. what's happened so far is that is what predictable tit for tat.

while it's terrible that putin is invading or annexing esse essentially part of eastern ukraine, it doesn't change the economic position. if something happened to not just stop and pittsburgh up in terms of sanctions but to refuse to buy russian oil or gas, that would be a much more serious situation the key point is not what's going on in energy markets, the key point is what does putin do next >> conrad, that is the thinking among many, the credibility, the idea he wants to reset the post cold war order is that where you are, where you think we are going in. >> that's a difficult geo-political question so many experts want to find what is in mr. putin's head. i think if i think of it

logically, it does not make sense for a full invasion of ukraine. the two regions were already under russian control, in effect i think what happens next is important to see the sanctions coming through seen as somewhat measured and overall i think what it means for markets, the broader emerging marks, where it's driven by importing energy. that's sent an inflationary threat to it for now all fundamentals are all. it's what move mr. putin does next how aggressive he is into getting into ukraine >> and what putin does next. in the meantime, we are and our allies are leveling sanctions. what does this do for the u.s. dollar and the read through to investments? >> i think if things stop here

or we reach a tentative equilibrium here, i don't expect to see a significant decline in rate or the dollar i think the fed would stay on the current track. have you these sanctions, which, of course, hurts russia to some extent and russia has hurt itsms i don't think it caused a big rally to save assets if russian tanks move in from the north and head for kyiv, i think you'd see a significant rally in the u.s. dollar, rally in u.s. treasuries. i think you'd possibly see the federal reserve back away from aggressive typing. i think it'd significantly change the short-term economic environment until we reach some new equilibrium. >> gentlemen, forgive us keeping the flow of news, but appreciate your guidance. see you next time. we have a news alert in the ahmaud arbery murder trial the three men convicted in the shooting have been found guilty of federal hate crimes for violating arbery's civil rights

and targeting him because he was black. the jury reached the decision after several hours of deliberation coming up next hour on "tech check," the nasdaq is trying to avoid four days down in a row. some positive calls on some beaten down cloud names, like datadog. all begins at 11:00 a.m. eastern. in the meantime,sqwk "ua on the street" is back in a moment. ♪ come on. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ oh man, my laces are ruined. the gender reveal was more fun than i thought. get in the back. look, your cousin dared me. i had no choice.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are lower at this hour with consumer discretionary the worst performing sector this morning. we're seeing weakness in travel and leisure stocks, like casinos and cruise lines however, they're still holding on to february gains it is a different picture for the automakers this month, also under pressure today ford and gm are down 10% or more for february so far, with ford on track for its worst month ers remarch of 2020. the'mo "squawk on the street" right after this break

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platinum and plalladium also up it's for parts like c cad lytic converters and more. globally, russia produces 6% of the world's aluminum and 7% of the world's nickel in 2021, russian imports to the u.s., those increase d 33% from 2019 levels. there are more than 1,100 firms with direct supplier relationship with russian firms here in the u.s. they could see a major impact if an invasion were to happen oil, agriculture, and tech and manufacturer would see major supply chain disruption acs. >> heavy manufacturer and titanium, palladium, which russia is the world's largest exporter of, we'll have a problem. or nickel and platinum we're already seeiing constraint

it'll be further with the tension with russia. we'll have to see if we need to find a new manufacturing way of life. >> impact to oil prices with russia being a top supplier of natural gas and oil to europe being closely watched by freight companies in the u.s., according to nalytics. rates are 60% higher than 2019 and could spike more if they do, it'd cause fleets to drive slower to conserve gas and reduce costs the side effect would be fewer miles per day, creating more problems for the supply chain. morgan, back to you. >> all we need, more problems. frank holland, thank you for that report. after the bell today, we'll get more earnings and specifically from a couple of space names within that sector, as well. v virgin galal ctic is down 5% aha of the results one of the companies helping to

inform events on the ground is maxar, through its satellite imagery for russia and ukraine and the going-ons there. all major averages are lower flt tha "tech check" starts now. ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to tech check. i'm carl qukwquintanilla with jn fortt. dee dierdre is off today one guest says it is time to buy back in on some software and cloud. finally, so much for a safe haven. another volatile session for crypto amid all of t