ready to go here. i looked at some of these numbers. 24 s&p 500 names are going to finish the week higher. 24 out of 500. netflix down 15%. it's a damn good thing you don't have anything to talk about in your show today. >> and let's not forget, this is an expiration day. that adds to the fun. maybe more volatility. certainly more volume, as well. we'll see which way the market is leaning as we go onto that final hour. we are heading lower again. >> thank you both. we'll take over here. dow falling nearly 400 points. we are now down more than 1,000 points in the month of august. you are watching the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. this is the final hour trading for what has been a wild week for the stock market. a lot of red on the screen today. global slowdown. fears weighing on stocks. price of oil. the fed. more than 25% of the s&p 500 is

now in bear market territory. those stocks are down at least 20% in some cases, more than that. all the major averages deeply in the red today. it's i shaping up to be the worst week in the dow, s&p and nasdaq in nearly four years. this is serious selling. >> let's look at the price of oil breaking below $40 a mark today. we've been watching this one for some time. it's now down about 20%. that's a bear market. that's just this month. finally, take a look at volatility index. surging today. it's doubled this month. it's above 25. this is the one we are watching. it was dormant all summer. today it's up above 25. >> this is the best month it

had. >> all sorts of benchmarks are being set. >> exactly. dow jones industrial average is close to breaking below 16,600, which it did do briefly earlier. >> we started the week with the vix around 12 and we're at 25 now. we have bob doll to break down where he is telling his clients to put their money now. >> tech and social stocks getting crushed in this market. apple one of the worse performers. netflix down another 7%. facebook down 4%. kevin landis will tell you whether he is buying more of stocks like these on a day like today. >> art cashin will join us later.

>> bertha coombs at the nasdaq and courtney reagan at the nymex today. bob, kick us off what has been another ugly day for the bulls. >> 6-1 declining to advancing stocks. we've come off the levels. the important thing today, forget about winners and losers. they are selling the winners. there's a lot of names that have done great this year having a tough two days. home depot. great year. they are down almost 3%. mastercard had a great year. it's down 3.25%. almost 6 million shares. nike had a terrific year. down 4.6%. they are selling the winners. you know about the weakness in energy stocks. one sector that's done fairly well has been the refiners. not today. valoro down 5%.

tesoro down. perhaps the oil export ban might be lifted next year. that would reduce the spread between west texas intermediate and might make it smaller or affect the prices. you have the possibility of lower profits for these really hurting. s&p 500, i think everybody would be happy to get close back to 2,000. bee are down about 5% this week. 4.9% as we came in. now about 5%. one comment on the vix. we have not seen this almost ever. three days in a row where the vix moved more than 10%, 20% today. that's only happened twice since in 21 years. happened in 1994 and happened in 2014. only good news here is these are very extreme moves in such a short time. both of these times, the s&p 500 has been higher a week and a month later.

extreme fear levels right now. >> when last we checked, the only dow component positive was 3m. no wonder its ticker symbol is mmm. >> disney was trying to join it briefly. a tough session. bertha, out to you. nasdaq is leaving 5,000 in the rear view mirror. >> you are seeing heavy selling here. the good, the bad and the ugly getting sold off. at one point the nasdaq 100, not one of the components was positive for the week. apple's loss is really the big thing. wiping out all of the year's gains for apple. with a decline of nearly 20% from its april high. it is now in bear market territory, pretty much right there, in addition to having bad technicals on apple stock, trading on very heavy volume. a handful of chip stocks today were bouncing off their 52-week lows. some of them turning negative

again. semiconductor index well into bear market territory here. down better than 20% from its high a month ago. not one component in the semi index is higher for the week. among biotechs, there is one higher for the week. even the market leaders, the ones that some folks called fang, facebook, amazon, google, they led this market up. th three of the four are in correction territory here. netflix leading the way south. netflix is down well over 14% from its high. it's starting to look at bear territory. one point today was down 17% from its high on august 5th.

>> traders didn't need another reason to push oil prices lower. china served it up with the weakest manufacturing data report in 6 1/2 years for that country. early on we saw wti spike just very briefly positive. testing that $40 a barrel level. trying to break below it. it finally did hitting a low in the session of $39.86. ultimately, settling at $40.45 a barrel. crude now though for the last eight weeks down more than 30%. that is the longest losing streak we have seen since 1986. i don't want to tell you how little i was in 1986, but it's been a long time since we've seen that. crude gets a lot of attention. take a look at rbob gasoline.

wholesale gasoline number down significantly. perhaps finally, you are going to get some of that relief at the pump barring all the problems we have at various refineries across the country. there was another news alert about one in delaware. who knows what's going to happen with the action for prices at the pump along the east coast. a lot to watch into the weekend. >> thank you. >> don't you dare play the age card, young lady. all right. thank you very much. dow now down 400 points getting back to the lows of the day with this crazy sell-off. everybody is trying to figure out if this could be the start of a bear market or a correction. noted short seller jim chanos was on the "halftime report." >> markets go up, markets go down. i have no idea where we are if p this is even a correction. i think we've don't complacent. it's been straight up for the last few years. that's not how markets work.

as to whether this is the start of a bear market, i have no idea, or a correction. >> at last check we'll see if we close here. i believe the dow is down 9.5% from its recent highs. 10% is all it takes for a correction. let's talk about it with our "closing bell exchange." ken mahoney joins us with john brady and ben willis. gentlemen, welcome to all three of you. >> we started lowering our risk going from growth to value. this week remind me of that movie with bill murray, "groundhog day." every day he wakes up to the same kind of thing. >> 400 point decline? that's groundhog day? this is uncommon. >> every day we wake up, shanghai down 6%, followed by european markets we get the hot

p potato with the dow down 450 points. it will end at some point. we are encouraging investors to take a deep breath. over the weekend look at value type of stocks or everyone tfs that pay dividends. the fed raising rates. maybe september, later this year. it will be different. we'll see a market go from growth and value and towards dividends. we want to take a deep breath and look at this. >> ben willis, this is expiration day. that will add fuel to whatever fire we've got going. read the mind of the market for us. what's on everybody's mind through these last 15 minutes of trading here? >> where is the bottom? none of the technicals held. the idea 2040, buying the dip had been so successful for such a honk period of time. we bought that dip and sold on the way back up. yesterday when we broke 2040 and didn't hold, you saw a great many of those trades unwind into

the close to get out of them. right now it's like swimming in the deep end. you try to find if there is a bottom to touch at this point. right now our volume average is about 70% higher than traditional volume. that is because of the expiration. what you are witnessing on the individual stocks is called pinning. stocks are pinned to their closest stock price. >> the markets with a 2.5% decline on top of yesterday's decline. we've given up nearly 5% in two trading sessions in this market. is the market pushing crude lower or crude continuing to push the market lower? >> crude is the canary in the coal mine and the dip below $40 is usually good for the consumer.

because of refinery issues, the savings consumers would get at the pump won't be going onto consumer discretionary products. you may want to look at consumer discretionary stocks into the fourth quarter and strong christmas season. i would argue, the market short term is oversold here. a lot of these technicals are screaming oversold levels. we are going into a weekend where people's bank of china has traditionally made announcements early on sunday mornings. you could see a large short base that could get caught offside if pboc comes into the market sunday and cuts rates. we would caution late sellers during the afternoon friday not to do that. there is a risk here. pboc could cut rates and lead to a sharp corrective rally monday. >> where is this going? you see it going to bonds? gold we see is higher. what do you think? >> positions being liquidated appears the money is going to the sidelines. we saw interesting flow in the

middle of the day where the russell after hitting correction territory started to rally. almost went into plus territory. that tells us once again the broad market in the sense of the stock market, you are still selling the developing markets, the international markets, exposure to china which explains apple. in the united states, if you want to continue to have sploes year to the growth i believe the united states will lead us out. you see money flow into the russell 2000. it was in corrective territory because of the correction in the energy sector and biotechs. i believe there are parts in a sector correction. it's happened in energy already. it's happened in biotechs. the markets, there are all parts of the markets that have corrected, that long correction we've been waiting for as traders over three years. we are getting part of it. not just the broad market. we are at a place where you want to buy stocks, not stock markets.

>> we are only about 40 points higher than a 10% correction in the dow we have not witnessed in four years. this one came swift and it's come sharp. does it matter if we are down, if we hit 10%? how significant are these levels? >> technicians are going to watch this closely. the genesis of this sell-off started last week with china overnight devaluing the currency. shows quickly how things can change. china is trying to work through their problems and trying to make sure exports are cheaper. they are exporting fear in the marketplace because of their upward mobility. the genesis of the sell-off started last week. these technical levels, everybody is watching them. it's very important. >> anything you would buy here? any opportunities you see? >> the opportunities we see are

in the rates markets. given global equity market volatility, the bond market has not traded all that well this week. especially the long end of the treasury curve. when i last looked was actually down on the day. normally with such increased volatility and risk markets, the bond market would be strong. there are adjustment trades going on there there are there is central bank selling going on long u.s. treasuries. some far eastern asian central banks are raising capital, selling u.s. treasuries to bring capital home. if the bank of china eases rates, you'll see this reverse rapidly and violently. >> something to watch for monday. >> we have to leave it there. last time pboc jumped in to cut reserve rates, it didn't get the relief rebound it was hoping for. perhaps conditions are different. no doubt a lot of risk going into this weekend. thank you all for joining us. 45 minutes to go. dow is down 460 points at this

moment. that is 2.75% decline. nasdaq is down 3.2%, 158 points. >> needless to say, we've got something going here. much more ahead in today's sell yochlt the tech sector on pace for its second worst week of the year. now maybe it is the worst. top tech fund manager says this sell-off does not scare him much. we'll find out why. that's what he said an hour ago. >> also ahead, wall street veteran bob doll puts the week's global sell-off into his perspective. where he sees opportunity and if he thinks the fed will hold off raising interest rates.

so you're a small business expert from at&t? yeah, give me a problem and i've got the solution. well, we have 30 years of customer records. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. add new business services with at&t and get up to $500 in total savings.

i'm a gas service my nrepresentative. n. i've been with pg&e nine years. as an employee of pg&e you always put your best foot forward to provide reliable and safe service and be able to help the community. we always have the safety of our customers and the community in mind. my family is in oakland, my wife's family is in oakland so this is home to us. being able to work in the community that i grew up in, customers feel like friends, neighbors and it makes it a little bit more special. together, we're building a better california.

we completed our last commercial break. we are going to go commercial free until the close because of the import of what you are witnessing. we are now officially in correction territory. we've come down at least 10% from the most recent high on the dow. >> on an intraday basis. 16,516 is the level. if we close there, that will be 10% correction off the highs. >> it's been a very red day.

you can see every sector within the broader s&p 500 is in the red. you look at technology and consumer discretionary. those leading the declines. technology notable. at 3.5% decline for the biggest sector in the s&p 500 is going to weigh down stocks more than any sector down there. if you look what's happening overall with markets, we drilled down deeper into the overall board. with this move, let's look which stocks are in correction territory. 2/3 of stocks with the s&p 500.

here are notable names. it's not just oil and gas or the energy complex. look at keurig green mountain. down 62% year-to-date. looks like it turned positive here. maybe some people buying on the dip there. another one to watch, micron technologies. you can see they are may be showing signs of life buying on the dip here. one more to look at the three that are focusing on here. biogen is now down 11% year-to-date. it's down much more from its peak. you can see right around that march/april area. down $300 a share.

>> a lot of people are going to look at this market and ask, is this all about oil? is it about the fact so much of the frg space is in bear market territory? how much has nothing to do with the energy space? >> that is a good point here. 85% of these stocks within the energy side of things have taken such a huge pullback it's dragging things down. remember, with the big drop in oil and gas prices over the course of the past year, energy as a sector is only about 7% to 8% of the overall s&p 500. you've got technology as a sector more than double what that is. that represents getting up

towards the 40%, 50% of the overall s&p 500. when you start seeing health care showing signs deaf kleins, they're the third biggest sector in the s&p 500. if technology, financial and health cares start to fall, that's why you'll see perhaps more selling pressure on the overall market. >> technology on track for the second worst week of the year with 35% in bear market territory. >> social media darlings are taking a hit right now. >> twitter has bounced back. it's actually positive. facebook down almost 8% this

week. >> kevin landis many has facebook and twitter among top holdings. can you reflect on what a day and the sharpness and speed of these moves, especially in the tech space. what's going on here? >> the thing to fear is not someone who thinks your stocks are overvalued. it has the feel of worst selling and people with loss limits kicking in. there's a phenomena happens almost every once in a while where things start to feed on themselves. all you can do is try to take advantage of it. >> are you seeing opportunity at this point? >> i learned not to be in too

much of a hurry to jump on the buying opportunity. >> every sell-off is different. if you sold something a month or two ago, you're a genius. way to go. selling right now when they're falling like this, you become a trader if you do that. good luck to you. >> let's talk about facebook for a second. it's an interesting one to hone in on. it's gotten hit but a clear market leader, as opposed to twitter which is a different story. do you buy into the weakness?

>> facebook is one of those stories, and i think we picked when we first got involved it in, we said this is an emerging blue chip. this is going to be one of the big s&p 500 names. over time you are going to have to accumulate a position. if you always wanted to own a little bit more facebook than do you, not a bad day to buy some. this is sort of a long-term patient building thing. if you bought it today, you didn't buy it because you think today is the bottom. that's a foolish thing to think you can predict. if you think you'll be happy you owned it, sure, this is a good time to accumulate. maybe next week will be a better time. >> what about apple? >> we were all scratching our heads wondering what it was trying to tell us. it was telling us about this slowdown in china.

what do you make of what's going on right now and what to do about it? >> you know, the really nasty sell-offs, in my memory, the nasty sell-offs always have the two components. the psychology was ready for people to panic, and you had some macro fundamental thing go wrong. >> china hitting an air pocket. that's a real thing. >> anyone who has been there. there is a recklessness that's sobering. you figure they are going to drive onto a ditch periodically. it looks like that's what's happening again right now. you are right. >> apple is a growth story.

it's still a solid, great company. >> kevin, good to see you. you've been through a number of cycles through technology over the years. kevin landis joining us. >> once again, we are going commercial-free to bring you minute by minute coverage of this sell-off today. now down 452 points on the industrial average. a decline as you see there up 2.66%. steve liesman joins us with more as we get ready for a very important gathering this coming week. >> every point down in the dow now makes it more important, as fed officials set to gather next week for that annual jackson hole summit. do they go for a hike in the mountains or hibernate in the hills? their stated intention of raising rates coming up against a financial slowdown in china,

this market meltdown the past several days, plunging commodity crisis, a strengthening dollar and weak overseas growth. they were already on the fence radar at the july meeting. all those factors worsened this month. janet yellen is not going to be at the conference which is set to focus on inflation and monetary policy, but stan fischer will speak on inflation. the key will be those talks during those walks in the woods, and whether markets get any sense which way fed officials are leaning on rate hikes for september or december. or even not at all in 2015. i'll be listening for whether emerging market central bankers argue to the u.s. fed their situation is so precarious the fed should stand pat. we'll be live from jackson hole starting wednesday for three full days of coverage. >> steve, you mentioned earlier

on air some comments from bullard. you've got to mention jeff gundlach is scratching his head saying what in the world. >> a lot of people are scratching their head. we did our survey yesterday. we surveyed over 17 economists. 11 or 12 of them are onboard with the september rate hike. i don't know if that was 400 points ago or 800 points ago in the dow. i have to think the fed is saying we have to reset our communications that if some of this is because of that fear of quarter point in september, they have a communications problem. >> that leads me to my question. we keep thinking about inflation indicateors. where does the stock market fall in that list of data they keep an eye on? >> i would say it's third in the

sense jobs are first, inflation is on the same level there. they try to dig it out that way. after that, it's the markets. they don't want to do this against the market. they would like to have the market with them. what they would do ises in the taper tantrum. they had a messaging problem. they took a break. they did it and finally got to where they needed to be. unfortunately, we have to live through this volatility. i'm not saying this volatility is from the fed. the uncertainty around it. it's more global overseas what's happening in china. and the uncertainty about understanding how that factors into the u.s. it may end up being a minor thing which was suggested in the minutes the other day where they said a more serious slowdown in china would hurt the u.s. right now at this level, it may

not. >> a sell-off as we watch the continued slowdown in china. a standoff in the oil market holding at $40. briefly traded at $39 earlier today of we watch the fed, as well. the dow's down 466.76 points. >> you are a trader. ben wells was saying it's

searching for a bottom. do you feel that, too? >> we are trying to figure out if this is capitulation. >> near the end of this move lower. >> it would be if that were true. >> what are you watching for? >> we need the giant volume. we are going to get faked-out by that today with the double x. volume is higher because of what's happening. it's higher because of the expiration. we are not going to know. we have to see what happens monday and tuesday. maybe through october. >> how about volume this week? the dow is down 485 points. that's almost 2.5%. we are talking about almost a 5% move in two days. has there been a lot of volume despite this being late august? >> volume this week has been 12% to 13% higher than normal. the last few days, higher than that. there is conviction in the selling. people really are scared. we are seeing that 1987 kind of fear. not a lot of it. it creeped into the talk. >> are they scared the fed is

going to raise rates or china's growth is so poor? >> they're not scared of the fed, all right? they are scared the global demand situation. they are scared of china. maybe there is no place to make money. if the stock market is not going to make you money, where do you make it now? >> how important is $40 oil to you or to the market, do you think? i keep hearing if it breaks $40 we'll see more selling in the market. >> i'm okay with oil below $40. it doesn't scare me that much. >> how big is your car? >> as i told you, i was hanging on to a british petroleum position. i'm still hanging on to it. i'm going to through a stupid bid tonight and see if i can get a cheaper average price. >> you can afford to play around a little bit. you mentioned some people feeling that panic setting in. not that we want to draw comparisons to those periods, but is it setting up for some resetting of trading ranges? where does that set us up when people come back post labor day

for trading? >> we are at a new range. 2044 was the bottom of the old range now that that's broken we have to reprice almost everything. >> we started with kelly asking if it's possible we could be down 500. >> why not 600? we've got time. it doesn't scare me. >> is this starting to feed on itself now, sarge? >> yeah. >> people who don't work in this industry might be checking their numbers now. they're getting scared. i have retail followers on my twitter feed and e-mail. >> how many people want a correction when they start to buy? >> they're not the little guy. generally, that's the guy i care about. >> how much of this is the

market searching for strike prices that end at zero or five? as ben willis was saying, they've got to pin to a certain price here? >> let's say 1973 is a fair price. >> my last question here, we heard people suggesting this could be the kind of weekend where we see intervention, maybe from china, et cetera. what do people -- do you feel people are paring their risk exposure because of that? >> certainly paring their risk exposure. what do we know what's going to happen? we don't know. everybody is going into cash right now. myself, i went into a higher level of cash just yesterday. >> we'll let you get back and figure out what you are going to do the last 20 minutes of trade here. thanks. >> let's get more on this week's sell-off. market veteran bob doll joining

us as we continue our commercial-free coverage of this final hour of trading here. welcome on this momentous day. what do you make of what's going on? >> we are clearly in panic mode for all the reasons you've been citing. warning cracks with significant decline in earnings expectations during the first half of the year. higher dollar, lower oil, slow economic growth. widening credit spreads. now the issue of where is the growth anyway? china is slowing. you have the technical deterioration several guests reported on. you get this forced an accelerated selling. there aren't a lot of people on the other side of the trade. it's august. often get volatility, as you know. that's driving things. i think we are rapidly reaching a near term oversold from which we'll get a bounce. i don't believe this corrective

period is over yet. most of the decline is probably behind us from a points standpoint. i think we have more time to sort this out. >> what is it you are going to look for amid this? we are asking people, is this because of the federal reserve raising rates potentially? is the fear of the fed part of this at all? is it just global growth and looking to china here, which had a big miss in its flash pmi overnight. >> it's all of the above. >> the fed is certainly in the equation. if growth is strong, fed will raise rates. if growth is too weak, we can't with stand weakness overseas. good news is bad news, bad news is bad news. that happens in sell-offs. i would like to see bold action taken in china. i suspect we'll get that at some point. more fundamentally, i would love to see earnings expectations in the u.s. continue to creep higher as they've done the last month or so on the back of the u.s. consumer doing better.

>> you don't sound like you are going to get a shopping list out just yet. you still sense we are going to go lower from here. what are you waiting for that will tell you it's time to put money to work here? >> market bottoms or corrections in bull markets tend to be sharp. they tend to happen quickly. they don't turn around and go back up on a v bottom. we are looking for momentum stocks. they are the kinds of things i'm looking for. see what stocks begin to hold and go down less in down days or upper who more in up days. if you've been on the sidelines, as many have waiting for a pullback, take advantage and put a little money in.

we are not heading into recession. bull markets don't end of old age or valuation levels. they end when somebody smacks it over the head. this is the eighth or ninth 5% plus sell-off since the bull market started. every other one has been a buying opportunity. i suspect this one will follow suit eventually. i'm not saying it will turn around and go back up, but will take time. >> the u.s. may be the beneficiary as the rest of the world struggles with china slowing and perhaps has greater exposure to that and the collapse of the commodity space we are witnessing. what happens if over the next couple of months that really comes home to roost? a lot of the currency devaluations, a lot of extremely swift moves over the summer are likely to have broader ramifications. does that mean people should keep their money domestically invested? if so, where? should there be reason to play a more cautious stance toward stocks generally as we wait for this whole thing to shake out.

>> i've been of the view and continue to be that u.s. sourced earnings are the safer earnings than nonu.s. earnings. the u.s. is a net beneficiary of lower commodity prices. we need stabilization in the commodity pits for deflation to dissipate and move from this risk off to risk on period.

>> where do you think money is going, into cash? >> good old plan cash. there are nervous holders, which is a good thing when you have these sell-offs. you shake the trees and get rid of loose holders. as you mentioned bonds coming into the set, the s&p 500 has a yield of over 2.20. 10-year treasury 2.05. >> the headline from bob doll, you're not wringing your hands but saying it's about time. >> yeah. it's about time. it always feels like the worst one, this is the eighth or ninth 8% plus sell-off. it may take longer to repair. >> thank you, robert. good to see you. >> have a good weekend. >> bob doll of nuveen asset

management. over to bertha coombs back at the nasdaq again. >> one thing interesting to watch as we hear what bob is talking about in terms of pullbacks is the biotechs. biotechs this week getting hammered with everything else. they are still up for the year. we are finally going to see some of these biotechs correct. obviously, the small ones pulled back quite a bit. the fundamentals and some of the momentum in terms of the acquisitions that we've been seeing and the fact they have been working were keeping these higher, even when we saw pullbacks. if you look at the nyse biotech index, those are the larger biotechs. we've seen them get into correction territory much where they are right now. they are off 15% from their high a month ago. we've seen that over the last

couple of years. yet they pull out of it. they get off of the 200-day moving average, off those weak technical levels and rally into the year. the question is whether this time is different and we are going to see biotechs fall into actual bear market territory. we'll see a lot more separation. there's still a number of large cap names there that still trade at fairly comfortable multiples like gilead. they certainly have strong sales. today we are seeing myriad genetics. there are only a handful trading to the up side. that is one of the few up for the week. one of the things notable to me when valeant bought the company that makes the female libido billion. $1 billion.

up until recently, we saw some of these acquirers gain because they were bringing in new drugs. there are questions about that drug, but nonetheless, it seems to be a little bit of a change in the pattern, a little bit of change in sentiment. next week we are going to see what follow-through we have on these biotechs and whether or not they can bounce off these weak technical levels. >> bertha coombs at the nasdaq for us. thank you so much. 14 minutes to go in this trading session. it's going to be a historic one. dow down 454 points. we are track on the dow's worst week in four years. we were down 500 a couple of minutes ago. that was the first time since august 2011. you'll recall what was going on. it was the first time greek debt crisis burst to the fore. caught people off guard. a lot of questions about the euro zone's viability going forward. we are seeing a 10% correction on an intraday basis in the dow. no sectors in the green today.

>> this is for the week. this isn't just today. we are negative on all ten sectors. interestingly, the utilities average which had been leading earlier, but energy has taken the smallest hit for the week here. >> we continue to guess whether the fed will raise interest rates next month. >> if you are joining us, we are commercial-free, at least through this hour as we continue to cover this historic sell-off. s&p has begin up year-to-date gains eight times this year. what usually happens after it's begin up the gains? does it come back again or continue lower?

>> eight times the most recent time the s&p 500 has begin up yearly gains was just yesterday. >> there have been several instances where we could analyze where the s&p 500 has begin up year-to-date gains. five times, about 70% of the time the major indexes have rebounded in the five days following. so the next week. the two times they have not, that happened at the beginning of the year in january. things were looking back then much the same way they are looking now. there were concerns about global growth. the chinese market was selling off and oil prices pushing lower. besides january, however, all three major indexes bounced back the next week. the s&p 500 gained 3% the last time we saw it give up yearly gains at the start of july. in terms of trading this scenario, check out a few of

these stocks. they outperformed consistently the week after the s&p has begin up yearly gains. electronic arts and realty income corp. they traded positive 7-7 times this year, returning 4.4% and 3.6% on average. amazon, walgreen boots and cablevision traded positive 6-7 instances. each returning more than 3% on average. we can't know if markets will repeat this pattern, but looking back over the last seven instances, this year there are bright spots. could you see in the next five days the markets bounce back. >> believe it or not, there are some stocks in the s&p 500 in the green. >> you've got to search long and

hard. >> there are about 18 in positive territory. the vast majority of stocks, just around maybe 18 or so. >> one consumer name standing out to the flat side. so far today, shares of fossil have actually garnered small, fractional gains. up by about 0.2%. also hewlett-packard and sales force on the heels of earnings reports. shares were up more than they were right now. hewlett-packard, salesforce.com, fossil, three of the maybe 18 or 20 stocks at this point as we head towards the close.

you can see about 9:50 to go. not every stock in the red, but few and far between to find any specks of green in this market today. >> thank you very much. 10 minutes left with the dow down 434 points. what are we going to see going into the last 10 minutes here? >> they got spooked because it looked like $2.5 billion for sale on the bell power. that took is down to the minus 500. some of that pared off. that's why we trimmed a little of our loss. we'll be under pressure, but not that horrendous. >> what impact will the expiration have? >> the expiration was tilted to the sell side to begin with. that added up into that. the key thing is going to be sunday night when we see what

happens with china. >> oliver, what do you -- >> nobody wants to pony up and pay anything here. >> how are you playing this market? >> we are longer term investors. to us, it's about what is actually driving the economy. what is driving earnings and has anything fundamentally changed? we haven't had a 10% correction since 2011. historically speaking, markets correct about 10% once or twice a year. this is not unusual. we've been spoiled the last six years. you want to look whether the fed will raise rates. if they raise, it's one and done the rest of the year. doesn't change the trajectory of the economy. china will rebound at some point or another. oil is going to have a slight negative effect. it's not going to be huge or cripple our economy. this is a buying opportunity. you focus on stocks growing their revenues or growing their sales. ideally, that are raising their dividend, if possible. you are a little bit cautious

now going into the end of august. it's light volume anyway. not today. this is normal. >> you've been steadfast in your billishness. i was curious to hear your response. what is your fear? what would be the market's fear about china? what are you thinking could happen sunday night? what would the market do with that? >> they didn't do a great job defending prices. they broke through 3634 where their market bounced several times. >> on the shanghai. >> it closed barely above 3500. gossip is that was with a great deal of effort by the chinese government. if they are unable to defend it and protect 3500, we may get a spiral going around the globe. that will start at 9:30 sunday night. >> is this about the fed raising interest rates?

for you it all comes back to china? >> 70%, 80% china. the fact oil broke $40 broke in additional sellers. if oil were to go into semi freefall here, would you get a tremendous amount more selling coming in. >> only our favorite names like visa and nike as we see as tremendous powerhouses. cvs is another one. we are going to wait a little bit and take a calmer approach. we are not going to try to catch a falling knife. we'll wait to see positive momentum before committing capital. this is a time when you don't want to get nervous and sell and rush out. a turnaround can be quick. >> does the speed of this

correction tell us anything? >> i think it showed most people were not prepared for anything like it. selling pressure seems to be building up here. it's going to be a pretty exciting final five minutes. >> earlier in the day, during your notes, you kept lowering what the support level was going to be. 1987 seems so far away earlier today when you were identifying that. we did break that. we are at 1976. what do you suspect is support for the s&p right now? >> it will be tough to say. >> there is pressure mounting on china. we saw them trim reserve requirements earlier this summer. it didn't do a lot to stem the crisis. they've been trying to do other things. do they need to do something

more equivalent to what we saw during the financial crisis in terms of the scale and breadth of stimulus for its economy here? >> they've got to get beyond just trying to be a plunge protection team. >> we don't think that the 10-year treasury necessarily belongs at 2%. we don't think they'll go to 3% imminently, but to us the rally is bonds in mostly over. so it's just about hedging and protecting the downside a little bit. i will say that, in addition to china, what could be interesting, and i doubt will happen. if the fed comes out with a

strong statement early next week that puts support in u.s. equities. >> dow down 501 points. we are going to keep it here without commercial breaks and take you through this close. it's an option expiration date. we heard what that means about demand to the sell side. dow off nearly 3% today on top of yesterday. that means 5% move in just two trading sessions. we have seen volume some what more elevated than what we experienced typically this week in august.

>> we are talking about a dow effectively in correction territory, bill and bob. >> thank you very much. this would be what we would call the closing countdown what a countdown. we've got in the next two minutes we'll see what kind of an expiration we have. >> expiration for the index options happened on the open. >> we need to go to monday and see what happens. i think we are being set up for a tradeable bounce here. there is some very strange things happening today. >> we are hitting extremes in a hurry. >> i've never seen the vix move like this. unusual from 13 to 26. i noted the cboe, put/call ratio on the equity side is over two. normally it's below one.

people are reaching now to buy puts even if the prices are much higher than they were a few days ago. they'll pay anything for the insurance. >> the down volume is almost all this total volume today. >> this is 90% down side day. in technical analysis, this is often associated with capitulation days with short-term bottom. that's another one. you rarely get a 90% down side. 90% of the volume is to the down side. 90% of the declining stocks. 90% of all stocks are to the down side. you are getting very unusual indicators here. they are starting to sell the winners. con ed was down today. there are huge gaps between winners and losers now.

people will take advantage of that. >> thanks very much. when all is said and done, we'll be looking at on this day, mark it down, august 21st. we'll see what it means in the scheme of things with the dow down 526 points on the close of trade. much more to come on the second hour of the "closing bell" with kelly evans and company. have a good weekend, kelly. >> thank you, bill. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans. dow jones industrial average having its worst day in four years dropping 528 points. this is the worst week for the dow since 2011. we are just a few points above 10% correction territory. we have declines of 3% or more across all the major averages. the nasdaq down 3.5%. well below 5,000. just above 4706 at this point. s&p 500 giving up 64 points, taking out key levels traders have been watching all summer. in fact, all year with today's trading action.

we've got full team coverage of this ugly day and week. dominic chu, bertha coombs, courtney reagan at the nymex. dominic chu, how bad has it been? >> we are out of breath. we've been showing you the heat map for the s&p 500 all day long. in the last couple of hours as selling volume has picked up steam going to the close. the s&p 500 heat map allred. maybe around 20 stocks are in the green as things settle out. maybe four of the stocks are four of the names that have been maybe come to known of as fang. the four stocks that helped drive things to the upside. talking about facebook, amazon or apple, netflix and google shares. you can see today these are just

the moves today. facebook was a stock maybe pushing $100 a share just a couple of weeks ago. now we are back down to $86. amazon shares down about another 3.5% today. below $500 a share. netflix also. netflix is still with today's losses and yesterday's losses, the single best-performing stock on a year-to-date basis in the s&p 500. those shares down 7.5% today. google down 5%. these have been some of the darlings that helped propel things. if you take a look at some of the names that held up reasonably, again reasonably well relatively speaking. newmont mining shares down today on a maybe weak basis. standing out as one of the best

performers here. lennar, d.r. horton and whirlpool got caught up with the sell-off today but held up relatively well. housing story still a theme in the overall picture. a lot of red on the market so far today. all over the board. those are some of the upside standouts. for more subscribers can go to cnbc.com/pro and get more on these individual stock movers that drove the action here. >> this is the correction for years you heard people telling us they were waiting for. courtney reagan, also today oil crashing below $40 a barrel. >> you pick a reason, that's probably part of it. higher supply, lower demand,

china, the fed. any or all those reasons is what is driving the price of crude oil lower. earlier we saw a tease eking into positive territory right after the equity markets opened. it was like a ski slope slide straight down testing that $40 a barrel level before finally breaking below to $39.86. >> very interesting moves as we are watching the equity market and oil move in the same direction recently with those trends. as you look at what's happened to crude over the last two months or eight weeks, down more than 30%. that's the longest weekly losing streak we've seen since 1986.

gasoline down 10%. summer driving season is over. perhaps finally consumers could see a break at the price at the pump some time soon. i worry what people will think about these closing numbers today. >> nasdaq not immune. it's not just the energy patch. tech stocks battered this week. >> it's been quite a weekend. whoever said on a summer friday you don't see a vot of volume. this is our worst weekly loss in more than five years. large caps down 10% from its

july high as it came into the close here on about three times the daily average volume, which has been climbing of late. chip stocks reached that bear market level down 20%. apple ises ground zero for a lot of this. this week having one of its worst weeks in years. >> four times the average daily volume of late. a day when you saw better than 150 million shares trading hands. apple has been weak.

we have seen that come down and also affect a number of other tech stocks, particularly the chips because ofhese concerns of about a cna slowdown. netflix. noxposure in beijing and china getting hit as people sl tir nners. down about20%rom its hh of august 5th whi was $129.29. it waseall indcrimate selling. people seem to be throwing in the table today, not one component of the nasdaq 100 was up for the week. >> bertha, thank you so much. great coverage all throughout this crazy session. we have michael santoli, kayla tausche and evan newmark. what is going on here? >> too much is going on. too much pressure from too many directions. everything was down.

a lot of those hiding places people have been feeling sheltered in, they got smoked out of them. i don't think it means much of anything we are down 10% in the dow. we've undone this effort to stay above those post qe-3 levels. >> i think it's a good thing. a lot of people have been waiting for a very long time. >> what about the people who are going to see this and go into cash? are they making the wrong decision? >> i don't want to tell people what to do. valuations of most sectors have been stretched a long period of time. we are finally seeing the biotech sector chipped away at. over the next few months would be a better time than the last 12 months.

>> it tells you how overdue we were for a trade like this given we haven't seen anything like this in four years. when you look at the headlines in september 23, 2011. it tells you things are so much better right now. the fed had a dire look on the u.s. economy. there were fears of a global recession at that time. when you think where the u.s. is now and where europe is now, we had an expansionary reading on pmi in the euro zone this morning. is there a sense china could spill over, but not that sense of global recession there was four years ago. >> you agree, david? >> i agree. if you are a long-term investor, you should be buying this. it started off earlier in the week as a relative value shift. you saw winners being sold to raise money to buy undervalued,

beaten-up names. only when the global macro fears start to set in the buying stopped, but the selling kept going. the reason why they started selling these stocks, the leadership or stocks outperforming are so narrow it became such a crowded trade. people were concerned about it being a crowded trade. they needed to take exposure down. i think we are at a level you should be buying for a near-term dip. options market is telling you that with all the protection put on today or rolled forward, you are absolutely setting yourself up for a bounce in this market. i thought it was going to be yesterday. we got bad news tonight. i thinkonday morning we'll wake up and see the market move to higher levels.

>> how do we know tews flow won'tet worse from here? >> i think the big concern is not we are going to svidee pile up of severe further glol slowwn b a problem is a financial event. itelt like liquidation and people needing to back off in a rry andidn' feel like people were ratcheting down thei gbal growth expectation. >> donald trump tweing about the market action saying, be careful, everybody. >> what am i supposed to think of th? >>ot of people you said u'veeen ash wt are you buying in this market? >> twoeeksgo iaid i was starng tbuy ergy names. i'm buying a fund that is composite of most of the big

majors. i'm still buying that. those stocks are down 35%. they are in a severe bear market. i read your very interesting piece in "the spark" on the oil market. you basically said nobody knows where the bottom will be on oil. there are two people who probably know where the bottom is in the oil market. one is the saudi prince. maybe vladimir putin. i think could you see a major change depending on what they do. if they let the oil market play out, could you see months of this. >> where do you think they are going to put money into work? >> i think there's been a lot of cash building up now with the fact they are selling a lot of stocks that work well. there's also been a lot of pent-up demand for energy. i'm not calling the bottom in energy by any stretch of the imagination, but i believe stocks have been beaten down where you'll start to see big institutions dip their toes in and buy a lot of these names. plus you've got a lot of hedge

funds. you have the high fixed guys short equity. that trade will start to come off probably after labor day. that will create a bid to a lot of these names. energy is the place you want to put your money. >> there have been a lot of sectors so expensive that deals have been prohibited. do you follow the deal flow? if it picks up next week, does that tell you companies think they are finding volumes here? if silence reigns supreme, does

that tell you? >> the two key components of this m&a cycle we are in are the need to buy revenue and availability of cheap credit. if those two things go away, you won't see more deals. if revenue growth becomes strong or credit more expensive, we'll see deals slow. >> credit has become more expensive. >> would you echo what art cashin and everybody else has been saying? we just watch china? >> we watch china. we watch the reaction to china. obviously, we don't -- we have this confidence problem in the ability to contain these issues. we thought china was a managed economy and market. that's open for question. >> cashin mentioning 300 million shares were done on the close. we did have an option expiration day that. boosted volume, but so was the incredible trading. david, thank you for joining us.

much more with david on "fast money" at 5:00 here. >> don't miss dennis gartman talking about oil and today's massive sell-off. we are starting our special coverage of this stunning week. for many, it all begins with china. up next, we'll turn to a veteran investor who contends despite the fall of the country's stock market, it is a market that holds opportunities.

welcome back to our expression coverage. dow closing down 500 points. lost more than 1,000 points just this week. dow, s&p and nasdaq down more than 3% on the session today. its damage and devastation across the emerging markets this week. that's fueling worries about a global growth slowdown. sara eisen joins us. so much of our focus has been on a sell-off here. how bad beyond our shores? >> carnage across emerging markets currencies. that has people worried around the world. first up, the dollar against other currencies here in

emerging markets. you are seeing a broad sell-off from asia and beyond. you call this the trump chart. you are looking at presidential front-runner donald trump told chuck todd mexico is devaluing its currency on purpose to steal growth us from. this shows mexico has been getting caught up in a very proud and powerful global sell-off this week in emerging markets. until recently, the story in the currency markets has been how strong the dollar has been against everybody else. doll yoor against emerging markets there in red. dollar against g-10 or major currencies in blue. the dollar is soaring against emerging markets. this is no longer a strong dollar fed centric u.s. story. it is now an emerging markets

weakness story. the hardest hit, currencies whose economies depend on oil or commodities exports, russian ruble. a triple whammy for russia getting slammed by weak oil prices, sanctions and investors' aversion to all things emerging markets. russian ruble down 20% this month alone. two years ago, $1 would have gotten you 30 rubles. now it buys you 70. add it up and you may ask isn't a weaker currency good for these economies? the answer is no. not when it's so sudden and severe. we haven't seen moves like this since the late '90s. that is what has investors spooked. >> thank you so much. a lot of people tying it back to china, too. earlier today, jim chanos weighed in. >> it's worse than you think.

i can confidently say that. i've been saying that five years. i think the biggest lesson over the last three months for me anyway is people are beginning to finally realize that the chinese government is not om omnipotent. >> welcome. how much of your portfolio is in china? >> emerging market funds about 20% at the moment. >> i don't think concern over china is bizarre. concern on solely china is bizarre what today is painfully demonstrating is what people refer to is china's problem is the world's problem. i hate to point it out, but i think the world has become overly dependent for years on chinese growth.

out of the 10 largest economies in the world this year, only china and india are growing anywhere near 6% or 7%. six of those top ten of growing between zero and around two. two are in negative territory, brazil and russia. the world has not been able to wean itself off chinese growth. chinese growth was inevitably going to slow down. >> i don't know how long your career has been. we've been through other devastating emerging market cycles in the past. what do you make of what we are seeing in terms of our vulnerability today? >> my career is 35 years so i have seen worst times than this. i don't like to remember them. this is certainly a dramatic day. again, unfortunately, global investors at the moment are in the least ugly beauty contest and we're having to vote it.

the spotlight very much has been on china. until last night, the chinese market is more or less flat year-to-date. the chinese gdp is slowing but still way above most other markets. i would put more attention on somewhere like brazil or russia as i think your colleague said previously. brazil now down in real terms 30% year-to-date. to me china is by no means the ugliest in the room. the impact it's having on the rest of the room is clearly significant. >> appreciate it. >> our special coverage of today's sell-off does continue. we'll go out west to see how silicon valley is holding up in the wake of this week's massive sell-off. how low can oil go? one analyst saying no one knows calling this market an energy depression. with passion.ilt my business

but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

technology empowers us it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world.

welcome back. markets all in negative territory. crude oil hitting its lowest level since 2009, dipping below $40 a barrel. for more let's bring in john

gerdes. >> i think near term that's an impossible question to answer. there are so many forces at play. i think what's important and maybe especially on a day like today, why do we end up at these level of oil prices versus a year ago? most of the explanation has been supply related. we really see very few indicators of weakness and demand globally speaking. there is concerns that developed organically in china, some what secondarily in brazil and russia. the entirety of the globe, we are seeing an expression of robust demand. we have seen a tremendous increase in supply out of saudi arabia and iraq. that is really the driver here. many folks are putting forward a thesis that the weakness in oil has a demand element in its explanation.

it's really much more oriented to the supply side of the equation. >> what's the price that saudi could live with? can they live with $25 oil for five years? aren't they the pivot here? >> wonderful question. let's do the math together. saudi's foreign currency reserves last year third quarter sat around $720 billion. presently there's probably the neighborhood about $650 billion. by year end they may be closer to $600 billion. when you look at the full overlay of social costs, saudi arabia's budget last year balanced at $103 brent. this year they're in the neighborhood of $90 to $100 brent. ultimately saudi arabia sees an equitable level somewhere in that $90 to $100 brent level, they can sustain the imbalances in place presently for a few more years, but you've seen a fairly dramatic imbalance. they're at least 20% out of

budget balance as we look through this year. >> you had these companies that need the cash. is that going to change? >> that thesis i could characterize as an oil market myth almost. we just rolled off to a much lower level of activity. we came into the year over 1300 rigs in operation. we were at 1100 by february. we've just reached these levels in the last few months. the carryover effects of that tempo of execution required three to six months before you really start to see the supply implications. we believe what you will observe is you will start to see some supply erosion lay into the

system both in the u.s. and globally, but it's a second half of '15 event, not now. >> they almost feel the need to produce more to make the same money from lower oil prices. do you see them getting religion about that any time soon? >> u.s. producers are 60% free cash flow negative. they will make every attempt to produce maximum fact. the reality of the cash generation of this industry is you are going to see activity levels at current levels which are over 50% lower than they were a year ago degrade as we move through the balance of the year further for the fundamental reason they are well out of balance in terms of cash generation relative to capital

spending. all of this becomes a self-correcting mechanism. >> thank you for joining us. >> nine years ago the oil price was $1 40e a barrel. it was going to $200. everybody knew. goes to show nobody knows what they are talking about when it comes to oil. myself included. >> i was going to say. >> dave rosenberg gives us his take on today's sell-off. dow off 530 points. innovating. ey love and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those? he does. for all the confidence you need.

td ameritrade. you got this. more data means more freedom to do..whatever. that's why at&t is giving you 50% more data. that's 15 gigs of data for the price of 10. because the more data you have, the better. and right now at at&t get $300 credit for every line you switch when you trade in a smartphone and buy any smartphone on at&t next.

welcome back to our special coverage of this market sell-off. 3% declines across the major averages today. dow closing down more than 500 points today. officially entering correction territory. the dow down more than 1,000 points for the week. all indexes down 3%. talking about red for the year, as well. bob pisani back with us on what happened. is it significant we did go out on the lows? >> yes. i know why this happened. i'm blaming everything on ashley

madison. all the rich people are in their divorce lawyers' selling their stock to pay for their payments. >> we are pricing in the biggest collapse in china you can imagine for years and years. we have big global names here. we are acting like nobody is going to buy anything. is it any wonder we are reaching a selling climax today? we saw numbers i have not seen ever. put/call ratio 2.2? usually it's 0.8. everybody was buying puts and didn't care how much they were paying.

>> isn't it true among some of the high growth names, it's one thing when the oil stocks get knocked down. another thing when the high valuation companies, social media names, there is no real bottom in terms of a valuation you can place on a lot of stocks. what is the right price of twitter some people thought earlier $70. now it's at $24. you can tell me that should be a $12 stock and you're probably right. >> everybody thinks it's fine for everybody to build up revenue revenues indifference to what money you might make. it's unfair of these people to raise all this money and say we want to build revenues, then this week start saying, maybe people need to make profits. home depot, mastercards, sonys, they were dumping everything.

>> we'll let you go. catch your train, catch your breath. >> the ashley madison thing, i'm telling you, there is something to the story. >> they could use your name. >> have a great weekend. see what happens as we move into sunday. >> i think i would be selling at least in the short term. i think we are probably very close in terms of days to capitulation low. we could maybe see another day or two like this before we have this all over with. >> do you think china is the culprit? >> the last two economic cycles seemed to have a pattern to them. credit markets turn.

they start to go bad. commodity markets turn. they start to go bad. world stock markets turn. u.s. market continues to go higher and higher. everybody says none of that matters. all of a sudden it all matters and in a hurry. that happened in 2000. that happened in 2008. this week the stock market filled out what everybody else knew. >> brett is breaking down. the advance decline line has been pointing to what he called an ugly decline in the markets. the question is what will bring brent back in the other direction? do you think we'll see anything to cause this to recover.

>> this is so emotional right now. it will be impossible to say we've got to buy now. take a long-term view. if you took a long-term view a week ago on the energy stocks, you lost 10%. that's how much they are down this week. >> always good to have your perspective. the dow falling 1,000 points. david rosenberg saying the pain will continue and he'll explain why after the break. >> plus what the energy sell-off could mean for the financial sector. [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts,

♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes, or a million sleepless nights. whether it's building the world's most advanced satellite, the space station, or the next leap in unmanned systems. at boeing, one thing never changes. our passion to make it real. ♪

no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one.real. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

my next guest says we've been in a correction now the last six weeks, what he calls a stealth wanda turned into a market event. david rosenberg joins us on the cnbc newsline. good to hear from you. i was surprised to hear you're bearish. i thought you were bullish. >> i still think that the fundamental sector of a bull market is intact, but it's never

a straight line and we had lots of periods in the '80s and '90s where the market took a pause, which is certainly it has done this year. we've been expecting a pullback for some time now you usually have a correction in a bull market every 12 to 18 months. to go through four years without seeing a pullback like this is what's bizarre. near-term pullback, and i think after labor day, i think by october at better price points we'll be back up to talking about the bull market straighting itself. >> you don't think this sell-off is necessarily over, but you view it as a correction in the context of a bull market? >> exactly right. the valuations going into the year were stretched. i never thought it was a bubble of select sectors. the reality is when you have pe

multiples close to deviation above historical norm, when you get bad news like we had globally, it could have a fairly big impact. we've seen this before. we are working off the valuation. if we are talking about working assumption of $130 on earnings and we get this market, s&p down close to 1900 which is where the high yield market is telling you we should be, we are talking about 15 forward pe multiple which to me is a fair value. even before this latest round of chinese-related angst, we were so far working off that overvalued excess we have. >> the broader context of this is the federal reserve that seems to be intent on moving maybe not so much based on every little tick of the data. that's the impression out there that the fed is looking for that opportunity. does that matter and are we

sitting here waiting for a whisper from the fed that maybe they are going to remain friendly for a while? >> i wouldn't have thought one or two rate hikes would have made a difference. what's important is not what the fed was telling us in terms of the starting point, but what they were signaling in terms of the ending point. when you read through the body language, they are telling us this is going to be a muted interest rate cycle. maybe they move once or twice because the only rational to make a rate move at all where inflation is and where the overall economy is, you could argue we shouldn't be at zero, but the optimal level really isn't that much higher than it is today. i never thought we were going to have a normal rate hiking cycle. i didn't think the fed was going to be an enemy to the market. we are just basically succumbing to the reality going into 2015 we had a market that was going up 15% per year.

with earnings growing less than 5% per year. that is not sustainable. we were in a pause mode, then in the past week or so because of this china news, we've been in a risk-off mode across most asset classes. there were things making sense. the past couple of days you could see the selling. when you see regional banks and telecom and utilities sell-off, they have nothing to do with china. it's a panic selling that's been an opportunity once we clear through august. >> david, thank you. appreciate that. up next what the big sell-off could mean for the financial sector.

in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities?

one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day.

welcome back. look at those financials down 3% today. getting hit hard along the broader market. we saw the dow down 530 points in correction territory. oil dipping below $40 a barrel. we just talked to david

rosenberg whether this indiscriminate selling makes sense. we are zeroing in on areas that might have the most exposure in that collapse in you calling i or seeing you, i'm sorry. yesterday julian tet told us the next shoe to drop could be as people look to the financial sector and the wrim pact this collapse in crude is having. who's most vulnerable? >> well, really the banks that are located in the oil patch, in texas, oklahoma, louisiana are going to have the most direct exposure as a percentage of their balance sheets. and you know, the bigger banks have much, much smaller percentages. nothing calamitous there. but there's always surprises. you have banks in the midwest like an associated up in wisconsin that is 4% of its loans in energy. it is important to do your research and know your companies, but i've been avoiding that part of the world since the fall of last year. i just -- i'm not an energy

expert. i just know that when prices drop the way they do some things go wrong. we've been very lucky in terms of bank credit. think about all of the junk bonds that a lot of these energy companies were able to sell over the last several months before spreads widened. a lot of people were able to hedge again with oil prices rising dramatically. so the loan losses really haven't shown up yet. it's more showing up as criticized loans. >> evan newmark. ponce upon a time the investment banks had huge commodity trading arms. predodd-frank. are you expecting anything to come out of the major banks and the investment banks in terms of commodity-related losses or are they totally out of that business now? >> they're not totally out but they're more facilitators than faking big positions. dodd frank has taken the position taking away from those large institutions. and maybe that what you need back to provide liquidity. i know we've all been talking about liquidity in the bond market but maybe liquidity in some of the commodities markets

is important and we've removed an important part of it. >> mike? >> yeah, anton, i guess the other part of the picture here is the exposure to -- at least the potential for a fed move. so that was the big bull case as you know earlier in the year for the regional banks and some others. are we having to look elsewhere at this point? the stocks have gotten really pawnish as fed expectations have diminished. >> i continue to think the market is so myopic every day week to week statistic to statistic and you know the odds have certainly dropped but i really think the big figure will be unemployment picture on the first friday of september. and i think that the fed is going to go on that. i think we do have some fed speakers next week on the 31st. i think that will be very important to get us the tone of where they're going. i see 25 basis points still in september. if things get worse maybe not. but i think they want to get that done and they may signal that they're done for the year with that. i don't think 25 basis points does anything. i think the dollar's foreshadowed that move already. so i think the dollar's not necessarily going to get stronger on that move and not

going to cause a lot of damage. >> finally, anton, when we saw prior to this the dotcom collapse, the housing collapse, these were all events that didn't necessarily have anything to do with the banks but always came back to who was exposed and how we dealt with them. the fallout from those two events is very different. obviously the housing collapse basically took the financial sector with it. how would you characterize what the oil price collapse is most likely to do here? >> well, it's most likely to be localized. and quite frankly there are things, components out there. for instance, there's a lot less steel being produced for pipes. you've got to think about sort of knock-on effects. but i do think the economy is benefiting from lower energy prices and manufacturing is certainly going to benefit and it's certainly helping anybody that's got any energy expenses. their costs are going to be down substantially. so you know, i really am more afraid of those localized effects than i am in a general knockoff here. and i think it just bears watching. i'm going to take my time getting back into owning any of these names. >> who's on your buy list,

before you go? >> well, legacy texas, ltxb. i think they're the best management team in texas and i want to own them. they know i want to own them. but i'm going to be patient. >> anton, thank you so much for joining us. appreciate you talking through what we're seeing here in quite a difficult market week. thank you so much. >> such a pleasure. >> the global sell-off has sent several stocks into bear market territory with a correction possibly on the horizon. we'll get our panelists' take next on what we should be looking for next week. ally bans equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda.

there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor.

i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

in four years we haven't seen a correction that's a 10% drop in the indexes from their highs. that's what we've now witnessed in the dow. in the smaller caps too which actually held up better today but they were first to hit that mark. before that it was the transports. a lot of the traditional indicators coming to roost. dow giving up 5 erase% of its market value in two trading sessions. it's been such a volatile week that we will be here sunday night. tune in 7:00 eastern on cnbc for a special report, "markets in turmo turmoil." we'll be here to get you ready. 7:00 sunday night, guys.

and obviously sunday's going to be incredibly important. waiting for the latest set of numbers, potential policy moves, anything else that may come, especially, mike, out of china. >> yeah, exactly, especially the policy moves. you already had people even before today's action predicting perhaps something from the people's bank of china. i do think we should keep in mind a lot of people have talked about a lot of the trading cues that said maybe some kind of bounce is in order. i do agree with that. you also have the fact that in october you didn't really get a second chance to get in. you had this kind of a v. maybe that's going be ton people's minds. but late august, you know, september being usually a tough month. >> let me bring melissa lee in as well. you guys have so much ground to cover, but we're all talking about china and whether this all comes back to what happens this weekend. >> yeah. and sunday night as you said, kelly, will be extremely critical. but i am surprised by mike santoldi's comments essentially buying the bounce. we have been conditioned as a nation of investors to believe in buying the -- if you look at the five past worst point declines in the s&p 500 in 2015, and this is courtesy of s&p

capital iq, the following one month has returned an average of 2.33%. but perhaps i think maybe this time around people should entertain the idea that that won't work this time. this time we're coming up against a fed rate hike. we are seeing some more turmoil in china. we're seeing a meltdown in emerging markets. mike, i think that this time could be different. i think people should just entertain that notion. >> i am entertaining all of these ideas. i was actually just mentioning that as people wait for some decisive flush you didn't get it in october. so people are going to try to get in there. >> yeah. go ahead, melissa. >> the volume was so heavy today, you know, it really felt like something a little bit different was under foot. if you take a look at the high-quality names over the past month they have actually underperformed, a number of them. the s&p 500 as a whole. take a look at netflix, take a look at disney, take a look at health care, for instance. these are all the places people wanted to go to seek cover and they were not covered in the past month. >> just give us quick parting advice to everybody p watching. >> take a longer-term view here. don't try to trade any bounces.

if you have a one or two-year time horizon stick with stocks you that think you'll want to keep. >> kayla, what are you watching? >> jackson hole next week and how china opens sunday night. >> great points. we will leave it right there tonight. thank you so much for joining me on this "closing bell" special. have a great weekend. we'll see you sunday night. melissa, take it abap. >> breaking news. a historic day for stocks on wall street. doesn't get much worse than it did today. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all closing down more than 3% apiece. and with today's move the dow is now in a correction. it has been 1,418 days since the dow's last correction. it is here now. so what do you do with your money tonight? the question is simple. guy. >> proper respect for this market. what do you do with your money? you just mentioned, it's not always a buying opportunity. when was the last time you heard somebody say it's a selling opportunity. i think we've been trying to say that. we've been saying it in terms of the russell, the iwm, the small caps when it broke 121. we