Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 22, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

12:00 pm
earnings today. yahoo continuing to be one of the best performers. >> a little longer leash for marissa mayer and the overall averages holding up. multiday streaks like we haven't seen for months for many. >> that's it for "squawk alley." let's get to the judge and the halftime. >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. pete najarian, steve weiss. josh brown and mike murphy. we begin with the search for opportunity. and the fact that stocks are coming off their best day of the year. a far cry from a week ago today. the s&p sliding. anxiety raising and investors wondering where their portfolios were going. certainly for at least one of
12:01 pm
the world's biggest and best investors david einhorn all that meant a chance to pounce. >> we've been kind of frustrated because we probably haven't been as long as other people and the market has mostly gone up. so we've been waiting for opportunities to buy things and things we like. and last week and the week before were the first time in quite some time we saw things we actually liked coming down in value to point we wanted to buy. >> josh he makes a point. david with us yesterday. and green light, opportunity knocks given what happened in the market. >> i think there is always opportunity. david does a ton of research on his names and knows them really well and has a good ens sense of their true value. so when you see a broad market selloff where essentially they just lick date everything, that is when he can get everything. he can get in there and lower cost average on favorite names or add to positions.
12:02 pm
that makes a lot of sense. if you are value oriented and the s&p loses 8% peak to trough within two weeks, of course some of the best stocks and ones you have been waiting for will come in. that said we've had a five day rally and a lot of that discount has kind of gone away. and now from a technical perspective i think a you will e on the 200 day which we've just reclaimed. i have no idea, but i think something or the aware. >> steve where is the opportunity. >> airlines. while they have recovered nicely you still see them come down. so buy the airlines. actually probably not down 20. still think they are very cheap given the pricing power and other avenues of the revenue. but another area is protection. so if you take a look at the vix, the vxx.
12:03 pm
that was a low of 26 this year and high of 55. over the last month it got up to 45, 46. now it's back about 30. i'm looking to buy cheap protection and that's where i see opportunity. >> i agree with steve. when all the blood in the streets last week we talked about opportunity. it wasn't time to go run and hide. it was time to look for opportunity. goldman sachs moving from 170 to 180. airlines steve just referenced and the moves they made. american towards 29 and getting up towards 37. united airlines at 40 towards 50. i disagree with the one part. i think right now on the airlines you have to pause and wait. for a pullback because some of these names are now higher than on october 8 before the turmoil hit the markets the way they have. but look at the chips as well another great example we talk about. last week with the microchip and
12:04 pm
the way it hit all of the chip, i felt unjustly. we heard from intel and now taiwan semi. texas instrument, broad com today. it's not what microchip forecast and abubecause of that the opportunity was there. >> what is going to give you another opportunity o get into the airlines? if you are going to benefit from lower energy prices and maybe you had an overreaction to the downside because of ebola, maybe you are not going to get a better chance. >> if you are going to do it in the airlines right now the one name i like the most is one of steve's favorites is american. it's well below still. it's 37, 38. call spreads like crazy have been going on. i think the way to play those right now quite honestly is volatility has come down. with that coming down that means opportunity to play that in the airlines right now to the upside. >> i could make the case the airlines are cheaper than they were at their highs. if they got back to the highs
12:05 pm
where -- >> fuel. >> they are compellingly cheap. when you take the inverse correlation that hasn't happened they are still about 35 percent you have a where they should be. i'm going to stick with it. >> murph, you had to listen to what einhorn had to say about micron. reiterated his bullish stance. >> i did. ands that a name. we went through this wild two week swing. recovering a lot -- there was opportunity. we've recovered a lot. where i see opportunity is still in names like himicron. striding at 3 trading at 31 but it was at 34 and change. so i'm looking at names like micron, like hertz, where icahn got involved and the stock's gone from 31 to 21. i think that's beaten down too
12:06 pm
much because people had to lick date, i believe. i'm looking for terms with a near term catalyst. micron had a boat load f of cash and could out with a buy back any time. and that would be a huge catalyst. hertz, i think we're going to hear from icahn shortly. and another is international pape paper, ip. i want to look at something where i get a near term catalyst to push stock higher. >> what about chips in general? is the coast clear. >> depend what you mean. can you own some of these? i think so. >> the stocks got oblitera blit on the microchip thing. no telling whether that's over. >> i don't know in you say the coast is clear. >> broad come. >> makes you feel good. intel. texas instruments. >> lot more companies that make you feel good than the one
12:07 pm
microchip. >> $7 billion market cap. and i know they have all kind of industries but there are a lot of chips exposed to a lot of industries. i think it was an over reaction. >> it's to where the chips play. if you look at the end mark and the capacity in that specific market go to micron. make amborella which is the cameraen o the chips. which is doing very well. >> icahn, as it remains to hertz, many investors remain cautious. and carl told us yesterday where he sees a good chance to make money right now. >> i think the high yield market is in a bubble. i think that sooner or later it is going -- i'm not telling you next week or next month. i'm not telling you what i'm doing next week or whether i'm buying it or selling it. we do a very arcane product.
12:08 pm
we buy the cds, the insurance. the cds on the high yield versus the treasuries. it doesn't mean i'm right. in fact i'm losing moning on r n it rite now. but i think that is a no brainer also. >> in terms of the high yield. >> the best thinks three to five years before that cycle turns back. >> you don't even have to mention the name anymore. everybody knows they're all like we know who you're talking about. >> i like a little bit of spence. for those that aren't paying attention. come on. >> i think it's bear's watching. the hyg is the most popular high yield vehicle. the biggest most liquid that all the hedge funds trade. this is down 4.5%. it's done significantry worse than most areas of fixed income and people continue to point this income is 15% oil and gas issuers in terms of companies putting bonds out there so when
12:09 pm
a lot of industrials which do, a lot of oil and gas a lot of companies with the global exposure in the high yield indices and the defaults have been low it is the kind of trade getting long in the tooth. and i wouldn't be surprised if you continue to see rotate out. >> high yield index if you talk to hyg has traded 6%. it is attract t at 9% and above. the corporate is trading at 4%. >> investment grade. >> to me that 200 basis points pickup is not enough to assume the risk of junk credit. that's why it's expensive. >> talking about quality names that give you some of this that, scott. you get growth on top of the dividend. what he's talking about is that is the place to be. not into the high yields. >> i think the best trade is one that we've had since january. high yield you are getting 6%. preferred you are getting 7%.
12:10 pm
the risk in preferred is bank stocks but the thing about banks is they have been regulated to where they are almost utilities. balance sheets are insanely strong. so if you take the risk for higher yield either take it in an index where 85% of issuers are companies like j.p. morgan and bank of america that are under the thurm of regulators. >> coming up, the best performing stock in the playbook playoff so far. >> one of my largest positions i think it goes a lot higher. >> great investment at these. even up here. >> i think it can go a lot higher. >> what stock is it? and is mike murphy stingi in sticking with it? we'll unveil his move later in the show. a a and coca-cola may be the real
12:11 pm
thing but it is causing investors real indigestion right now. is it time to bail on the all american soda story? stick around for a carbonated debate when we come back. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. tag: sooner or later, everyone needs a helping hand,
12:12 pm
or a helping paw! so mattress discounters good deed dogs is raising money to help train assistance dogs for wounded veterans. veteran: i live independently because of what all it provides for me. and it's huge! there's a lot of wounded, ill, and injured out there just like myself, who just maybe need a little bit of help.
12:13 pm
tag: you can lend a helping paw too. give at mattressdiscountersdogs.com or any mattress discounters. mattress discounters good deed dogs-- helping dogs help people. all right welcome back to the pull back as you know has his biotech heart. and our next guest say there is value there.
12:14 pm
he leads the biotech team at citi group and is one of institutional investors top ranked investors live in new york city. welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> are the fundamentals still in tact? >> for the group absolutely. there is a lot of innovation. we think earnings are going to be okay. maybe not as good in the first half of the year. but there is a ton of interest and a lot of innovation so the group looks good. >> which are standouts in your mind? >> for large cap our top pick continues to be gilead sciences. expecting a nice beat on hepatitis c numbers this year and into next year. small cap we continue to like -- those are our top picks. >> steve weiss? >> amgen, what is the real list of probability this company will stand up from an operational
12:15 pm
point? and. >> you're referring to what we learned over the last 24 hours, the third point and dan loeb has take an big position in amgen. >> maybe the largest shareholder now and he's put a lot of money there. and he said let the games begin. a great track record with him. >> what is the likelihood they will do what mr. loeb wants, at least at this point? >> if you look at our view in the investment, the stock is not expensive. better growth than the s&p. underappreciated pipeline. so what is the downside? there is not much. the upside, splitting amgen into two parts would be could be difficult. it's woven together. a lot of tax issues and the manufacturing implications. at the very least we agree with third point, that operating margins need to be better for this company. they have been flat for ten years. and we've been vocal for next analyst day we want to see them
12:16 pm
taking aggressive stance and improving margins. >> you have to know that a guy like loeb is not just going to go away quietly. he's going to push, push and push some more for the company to do the split. >> yeah, i think that if you look at what can they do near term? they can control stock buybacks and we think they resume next year. they can develop the dividend and the pipeline. and it is fairly focused with what they are doing and there is a lot of synergies between the business units and if you break it up you have to duplicate some of that. >> as far as gilead it is a name still very cheap. i like. i'm not in right now but can they continue to charge this much money for the hep c drug? or is there regulation that can hurt the cost on that and the company's profits. >> that's the great question and the central point. if you look at the new regimen
12:17 pm
just got approved a week ago about half the patients on it about eight weeks and as a result the price is attractive. it's 65,000 which is less than the current regimen by margin. we're about 21% higher than consensus next year. we see a big stick up this year into next year and we think they are going to beat numbers and ultimately for payors they are going to get to better q rate. >> my last question. have you had to revalue and reevaluate the entire space and your expectations for it as a result of the conversation now taking a turn on inversions by virtue of, you know, obviously treasury making that move. >> great yes question. and to us it hasn't hit biotech as much. it hit technology and specialty
12:18 pm
pharma. they are not paying high taxes already so they don't really have a huge reason to revert so for us not yet. >> thank you. you like the gilead pick obviously. >> i love gilead. i did shave a little and i have been selling calls against it but now i'm just long. i think gilead is phenomenal story. i bought a little amgen, very little. i don't typically follow what else -- whales. wales. amgen is near highs. so that is an issue. so each stories stand on its own. the point is dan loeb, he exited sony. which was great. different politics in general. i think it is going to be a
12:19 pm
great story. >> one story today the biojen ie dak. i'm not sure what is going on there but i would not be buying this dip. clearly other things happening and no support soon. so i would avoid it as it breaks through 300. >> pete najarian is co-founder of option monster today and focused on a retail name. pete you are the co-founder, right? >> ipointing that out. talking about retail i usually stand to the side. but gap really intrigued me because when you look at the chart, look at this severe drop. that is when the ceo stepped down. stock was 42, then pulled back. churning around 36, 37 ever since. look today. we saw unusual activity. 6,000 of these calls traded, the
12:20 pm
weekly 37 calls were bought today around the 33 cents level. that is way over the open interest. so this is very intriguing. they expire on friday. this is wednesday. they expire friday. this needs a move well above 37 into the 37 and a half and above for those to really start to produce profits but when you see that activity scott, it stands out. and after you look at that chart you can see maybe there is potential for the stock to start to move back up. >> does it stand out for you to get in? >> it did. i didn't get a chance to say ahead of time but i was able to get in close to level where i saw a lot of that big trade happening. >> holding period? >> it expires friday. >> you are talking about options not equity. >> i'm in the options i'm either going to sell between now and friday. if they double i'm out. >> we want to go tyler mathson now. regarding the breaking news out of canada. >> investors clearly teak
12:21 pm
keeping a weary eye on a evolving situation in canada. a gunman apparently shot a solder standing guard in ottawa. then apparently the gunman entered parliament and you can see some of the video from this incident. a cabinet minister tweeted at least 30 shots fired. you can hear the shots going off. listen. you can listen to the gunfire there. prime minister harper is safe. apparently had left parliament hill at the time of the shooting. we expect a statement from him very shortly. there are reports now that police are searching for at least two other gunmen and that one of the shooters, the individual in the house of parliament according to canadian bod broadcast was shot and killed. police warning people to stay
12:22 pm
away from windows and rooftops. the u.s. embassy in ottawa as well as other government buildings of the canadian government on lockdown. president obama has been briefed on the situation. and if you have been following the news from canada, just two days ago a convert to islam distilled a canadian soldier and injured another in a deliberate hit and run. that individual was killed by police. obviously we'll keep our eye on this situation as we'll be right back after this. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience.
12:23 pm
call our specialists today to get up and running. today could be the day. the day we give you hope. relief. a cure. today, we believe every life deserves world-class care. as one of the top four hospitals in the nation, over 100,000 people from around the world come to cleveland clinic for care each year. and we're ready for you with a second opinion or a same-day appointment today today today and everyday. call today, for an appointment today. means keeping seven billion ctransactions flowing.g, and when weather hits, it's data mayhem. but airlines running hp end-to-end solutions are always calm during a storm. so if your business deals with the unexpected, hp big data and cloud solutions make sure you always know what's coming -
12:24 pm
and are ready for it. make it matter.
12:25 pm
it's been a down day in 3-d. let's check in with dominick chu for a look at the market flash desk. >> a very ugly. the 3-d printer maker taken a big hit after lowering third quarter guidance and cutting sales forecasts. this due do constraints of the manufacturing for direct metal printers. the company said it expects revenue growth to pick up now the gaps have been closed. still shares down about 14% off session lows.
12:26 pm
here is other 3-d printers. stat asis. and others. >> josh brown. >> i haven't been in these names for a while. i still watch the space but i would say the second tier names have not been kind to shareholders. they have issued equity every chance they have gotten. also given unrealistic guidance. the big names with hewlett packard entering and a lot of the other developments there is nothing that entices me. i watch but i sit on my hands. >> let's check in on our battle for trader of the year. movement at the top as well. joe terranova still in first but mike murphy now in second past johna ja
12:27 pm
john najarian as well. murph what's your trade. >> so facebook has been a big winner for me personally and also in the playbook. and yesterday in the 78.50 range i sold it. not in my personal account. i still own facebook. this is a play to try to catch joe terranova with a big lead there. and i think that's not going to give me the type of returns i need to catch joe. i haven't reallocated it for this contest but i will at something i think will give me more beta. >> let's talk about the difference. maybe a little trade school, if you will. the difference of the game selling out. you are trying to make room up so you can catch joe. real life you are not ready to take profits off this stock. >> absolutely. and the difference being real life i think facebook is still one of the best names to own in
12:28 pm
technology. i've had it for a very long time. and i don't see any signs the story is changing. i think facebook has a lot more room to the upside. but with an $80 stock, what is the upside? 10, 15, 20% over the next two months. real life is not that time. i want something that moves quickly. and joe is out of trades and he feels the pressure coming because he can't do anything. so i want to turn the heat up a little bit. >> while talking about the playoffs. earlier this year steve weiss added a stock hoping high risk would pay off with a big reward. >> i put okay when in there was a i was behind and i need a hail mary. and that was one that came in.
12:29 pm
>> clock is ticking. you look down the field and trying to get it in the end zone. >> yeah and there were few developments. i played to win. >> of course. >> and once i saw i couldn't win i pretty much said onto the next. let me go back to real life. ocwen i don't own. i sold a while ago. i met with bill and we talked about lots of things. here is the issue. there is another instance that came out with losky and i'm not going to get into technicals but it's cost bill about 2 billion tlrs. here is the less sob. don't fight with the government. they have more money and more time and they don't care what happens to your personal net worth. >> couple years ago there was a hedge fund darling. >> everybody's made lots of money over the years. i say there is a reasonable chance that bill irby is not the
12:30 pm
chair of one of these companies. i frankly wouldn't touch it here. they i should a statement yesterday only 237 people affected and then came back after the close and said oh that was wrong. that's smoe shows the company is not executing not well? just not at all. they are de-executing if that is a word. >> coming up a coke and a frown. coca-cola's earnings showed people's tastes are changing but has the stock lost pop completely? or is there a dip to be bought? debating next. and energy may have recovered but oil still stuck in a rut. how low can it go
12:31 pm
ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today.
12:32 pm
12:33 pm
. welcome back. coca-cola may be a warren buffett favorite but the stock got slapped with a cell today. is this name poised for a pop? let's debate. log on to cnbc to vote.
12:34 pm
is coke a buy, sell or hold? let's debate it right on this desk. pete? >> i'd say hold under the circumstances of at least giving us a shot there. i'm not a bear or a bull right now. when i look i think one of the best moves they made in a long time was the acquisition of at least a portion, i think about 17% stake in monster. that's something they needed to do. because they are seeing the writing on the wall with what is going on with the drink market and they are getting themselves more positioned in a much better way presently with monster into the beverage market where you are talking about energy drinks and that works for monster as well. but they do not have the pepsi element of the snacks, judge. and because of that i still give the nod to pepsi. that balance gives pepsi a huge advantage now. >> three quarters say sell. murph? >> i agree with the sell. when i look at this acquisition of monster, i tack the other side of pete's argument. that is also going to start. when people realize how healthy
12:35 pm
a monster beverage is for you and i think it's more of a fad than anything else. i don't agree with them buying a stake in this company. the growth has been there. i don't think it will be there going forward. i this i the move is to look at pepsi's playbook and become more like pepsi. that is where the growth is. it's not in carbonated beverages. >> it doesn't matter if they buy monster. that is not big enough. if they did that deal tomorrow, great. you might get a little enthusiasm for the name. but the bigger problem is they grew volumes by 1%. that is not keeping pace with the population which is what coke has been able to do for almost 7 decades. is global population is growing but coke is not. and that is a clear preference away from core business. they could do water, tea, all of these things. but the core business is increasingly threatened by a change in consumer sentiment. and i got to tell you, no amount of marketing is really going to
12:36 pm
shift that right now. so i wouldn't want to be in the name. >> i don't drink sugars. haven't in years and years but i'm paying 20 times earnings for a company not growings, haven'ting grown more than 5% in the last ten years. so i could find other ways to keep my money in a mattress. i wouldn't buy here. >> people groo. three quarters, 72% say sell coke coal. oil, volatile day but still above last week's lous lows. have we seen the bottom. >> is this the bottom or a have we seen the bottom. it was a volatile trading day today. we were down. but now we've bounced up. is this it for crude? are we going higher from here? this is certainly the bottom
12:37 pm
given the way the market reacted to the data today. we've within saying on the show for a long time that 8 0 to 85 is what crude is worth. absent the big risk. china is not buying less oil they are just buying from new suppliers. >> you are looking at the charts. does the chart agree with what scott's saying. >> it certainly does not. sweef seen after the huge drop is a tight consolidation that is telling us get ready, something is going to happen. if it settles below 81.50 it's going to come out to the downside to. me it's more likely it breaks out in the same direction it came from. so i think it's slightly more likely it goes lower from here. >> here we're always weighing for something to happen. we'll be watching closely. in the meantime for more check out website. and of course the live show tomorrow at 1:00. >> thanks jackie. let's trade it here on the desk. >> in the energy space, that is the one area at the top of the show where do you see
12:38 pm
opportunity? i think when you loob at halliburton and they are big in the fracking and one of the biggest in the world. in the call, they not only had record numbers but also talked that even though oil is pulling back they are still seeing demand. i look at halliburton and also devan. devan down over 20% in just a month. way over sold. you saw insiders start to step in last week. that stock is at 60. >> i think it goes back up eventually to the 75 area. >> i'm a fan of the producers, the north american names. i think there is going to be a another -- >> i thought you were talking about our producers. they perked up in the control room when you said that. >> they woke up -- oim only kidding. >> sorry lydia. >> are we going to keep riffing? >> good. >> sure? >> okay. i think the trade here is in the
12:39 pm
north american producers. this winner in the ice cold weather and russia holds out on sending gas west, i think these companies get a bid. ieo is the way we've played. stock is bouncing back after getting hammered over the last month. that is where i'd be adding to positions. >> i think i agree with pete. looking at what halliburton put up. it is a name i talked about a lot on the show recently. you see what they came out with. there is enough there to make you believe that if oil stabilizes. doesn't need to rip higher. halliburton can go higher. >> up ahead the stock that launched had frenzy. >> i never said i wanted to be friends with you bill. >> carl i have no interest. do you think i want to invest with you. >> i respect what he said. what the hell am i fighting so much for. >> i respect what he thinks. >> we're going talk toon analyst in the center of the herbal life storm. back in the game with a new call on the stock.
12:40 pm
first in marissa mayer we trust. yahoo on a tear after beating earnings and the strong defense of her company's alibaba plan as well. is it time to believe or is this rally the perfect time to sell? more halftime is up next . you, my friend are a master of diversification.
12:41 pm
who would have thought three cheese lasagna would go with chocolate cake and ceviche? the same guy who thought that small caps and bond funds would go with a merging markets. it's a masterpiece. thanks. clearly you are type e. you made it phil. welcome home. now what's our strategy with the fondue? diversifying your portfolio? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? it's in this spirit that ingu u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement. to build something smarter. ♪ some come here to build something stronger. others come to build something faster... something safer...
12:42 pm
something greener. something the whole world can share. people come to boeing to do many different things. but it's always about the very thing we do best. ♪
12:43 pm
welcome back. just want to show you the markets. we were positive when we came on the air top of the hour at noon. we've moved negative territory. the markets watching all sorts of developments today but not lost perhaps are these events that are developing up in ottawa. maybe weighing on sentiment a bit. can't say for sure. but just at least wanted to point out the fact that the market is now in negative territory. the dow, the nasdaq down by one quarter of one percent. the russell down in negative territory as. we keep an eye on the markets and in ottawa is and any new developments we'll bring to you as soon as possible. four trades making news today. first up is yahoo. big move after beating expectations and saying on the call it is well-positioned for
12:44 pm
2015. do you agree josh? >> they might be well positioned for 20 is15. the fifth biggest gap higher for yahoo in five years. a big afterhours move. the problem is it's starting to melt away here. and this stock has a tendency of seeing gaps like this kind of go away once the enthusiasm wears off. i would not be a buyer north of 40. >> do you groo? >> i tend to agree, yes. >> i went through the numbers. i didn't find them impressive at all. doesn't show a turn. >> broad com? that's impressive. >> really. the stock up 7 and a half percent. and the revenues up as well. the number versus strong and look at their connectivity spot. we also had the ceo on the network earlier today. i think the stock right now you probably don't need to chase it. might get a pull back but the stock trades at 12 times forward. it is too cheap. >> weiss, talk to me a about dow chemical. >> activist involved there. dan loeb. and doing a good job.
12:45 pm
and good interview on cnbc. i this think the stock does well. >> boeing beating estimates and raising guidance for the year. down 3%. >> it is a tough one. if you look at the numbers, e approximaps is better. demand is better. but look at the market. doing hasn't done much year to to date and on the back of a strong earnings the stock is selling off. >> herbal life ceo michael johnson talking smack? an interview with los angeles magazine. >> get out of your limousines and understand how the world works. >> we're hitting the two different views after the break. we're going to hear from tim ramiy, the bull and tim greenberg, the skeptic.
12:46 pm
stay was.
12:47 pm
12:48 pm
look at shares of herbal life. one of wall street's biggest losers. down 36% year to date. the company as you know is being investigated by the ftc, waiting on developments there as well. but as we said the stock as been
12:49 pm
one of the worst performers. we haven't heard much from the company's ceo of late until now. michael johnson giving an interview to l.a. magazine. and he did not pull any punches regarding one bill akman. >> the company is personal to me. he's not he's just misguided. he doesn't have a product. he doesn't employ people. he doesn't create jobs. he doesn't have a massive worldwide distribution system helping change people's lives every day for the better. ed that not part of his life. his life is about making a buck. >> the full interview is on l.a. mag.com. what do you think o of the fact we're now hearing from the michael johnston for the first time in a long time. clearly has he has no idea what developments are taking place. >> i think it's a personal attack. it's uncalled for. i think ackman has generated a lot of jobs in his firm and
12:50 pm
through what he's done. i think michael johnson is reaching out of desperation. i was at -- when we took herbal life public. and the issues around then are still around. and i'd be a little ripped off here. to me the people selling the product are losing their money. >> i want to bring in an analyst some of you may be familiar with. he was once known as wall street's biggest bull on herbal life. he went to work for the big investor but tim ramy is now back. he is working for pivotal research group. it is nice to see you again. >> good afternoon to you. >> thanks for being here. you initiated herbal life now and your new gig with a buy rating, a price target of $110. in all honesty how can you put a price target of $110 on the stock given the regulatory risk
12:51 pm
that remains and the fact that the stock has gotten hammered. >> regulatory risk is a big issue and the report that we try to handicap and the way the stock was trading last week is kind of levels i would think the stock would trade if i was completely wrong on the ftc. if they closed herbal life in the u.s. and there was a ripple effect in the rest of the world, cut my earnings estimate in half and you can still probably justify a mid 40s stock price. if i knew that was coming i wouldn't have a buy rating on the stock, of course. and we think the handicapping it is extremely high odds that they will come to a nice settlement where they will write a check but that will be the end of the story. >> you are making the case here in the note. you elude to it that even if herbal life's business in the united states is shut down you could justify a buy rating on
12:52 pm
the stock yet we both know if that happens the stock is going a lot lower than it is today. >> i'm not sure i could justify a buy rating but a 40s kind of stock price. i think that is the way i put it. >> i said we could justify a buy rating. >> if the u.s. shuts down the country is going to say we don't care about the issues the u.s. found. we are going to let this keep going. how can that possibly be? >> the u.s. is about 18% of sales. in my kind of down side risk analysis i assumed they lost kind of 40% of sales. if that occurred and again i think the likelihood of that is extremely low, then i think there would be some follow on effect in the rest of the world. remember belgian overturned the pyramid scheme ruling a year ago. it is just not a pyramid scheme.
12:53 pm
people who have looked at the facts very closely i think will come to that conclusion as i have. >> what happens the day, if it does happen, that the ftc comes out and clears herbal life? where does the stock go that day you think? >> that is kind of ftc day in my mind. it is a day i look forward to because i think it will sort of put the good house keeping seal of approval on some model for ml n clearly under pressure. >> multilevel marketing is what you are referring to. >> multilevel marketing. the stock i think could have a 50% kind of day that day. remember there is a big short here. there are people who shorted against the convert that are automatic buyers. they are just people who are shorted against the options that are automatic buyers. that kind of what we have seen
12:54 pm
in the last couple of days, i think, is the people who have hedged the converter are covering some of the hedge. >> if someone was to say rainy has made it clear that he doesn't agree nor like bill acman, tim went to work for bill sterch who has a big position in herbal life. now he is back. how could he possibly judge this stock without bias given all of that? what would your response be? >> let's be clear. i went to work for post as a consultant. >> you know where i'm going. >> there is certainly a palpable difference there. i think you would judge me on my work to say i'm not -- my position today is not that different from what my position was when i was following the stock seven months ago. i don't think i have been the least bit inconsistent.
12:55 pm
there is no inflection point there. >> that's for certain. tim, thanks for coming on. appreciate it very much. >> thank you. pivotal research group. we have herb greenberg here, our skeptic on herbal life. what do you make of the call, the interview and michael johnson speaking out? >> first of all, on michael johnson speaking out when he speaks about the employees and how much they employ to me that is hollow and playing to a different audience. i think what tim put out in his report and what he said on set here a few minutes ago, no surprise. you would expect that from him because his heels are dug in there. what i think he is missing when he talks about getting a slap on the wrist we don't know what the ftc is going to do. we end up with him saying it is too dangerous to do that. it is my bet. kr don't have a monetary bet
12:56 pm
here. my bet reputationaly is that they will reset basically the ftc will come out and you will see a reset because it goes beyond the traded companies to a broad, broad, broad community of private and public companies. something has to be done. >> it is good to have you here. you will probably have something later today. doept have time to do it now. you nailed that one. it's down big so i'm assuming you are going to talk about that later on. final trades coming up next.
12:57 pm
today could be the day. the day we give you hope. relief. a cure. today, we believe every life deserves world-class care. as one of the top four hospitals in the nation, over 100,000 people from around the world come to cleveland clinic for care each year. and we're ready for you with a second opinion or a same-day appointment today today today and everyday. call today, for an appointment today.
12:58 pm
maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental customer satisfaction by j.d. power. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. there was no question she reminds you every day. but your erectile dysfunction-that could be a question of blood flow. cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure.
12:59 pm
do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. stocks are still in negative territory and we continue to keep our eye in the situation in canada. let's do final trades.
1:00 pm
>> what do you like and why? >> we talked about energy. i look at devon energy and i think it is a buy. >> retails, macy's the best i can find. >> sell the bounce in coke. >> hertz, selling is overdone. >> cryou guys have a great restf the day. "power lunch" picks up the story right now. scott, thank you very much. we have breaking news out of canada. there is the video. the u.s. embassy in ottawa on lockdown. there are several shootings. this is the first video from inside parliament. you see an active shooting situation. police running for cover as even as they advance. the video shot by a reporter who was inside the building. still an active situation. police right now covering every inch in and around parliament as you would expect intense police activity in and around the area. officers have brought i

69 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on