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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 2, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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it here. >> guy. >> we had a street fight about this recently, letter x, started making that stealth move higher. >> i'm melissa lee. melissa lee. thanks for watching. we'll see you monday. have a great holiday weekend. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field with all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! >> hey. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make "mad money." my job is to educate, teach, coach. tea tweet me @jimcramer. the milestone is getting closer.
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janelle yellin continues to demonstrate genuine horse sense in her desire not to use higher interest rates to combat financial risk taking. with the dow climbing 90 points. nasdaq decline d .02%, i think it's worth explaining why i believe this bull can actually keep running. even though you could get garden variety pullbacks along the way. here's the thing. sometimes you need to sit back and try to wrap your head around why a stock that's been a terrific performer could still go higher. i say sit back. when we see a stock that had a huge run, our natural inclination is say too late. you look at the market's winners --
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winners keep powering higher. why don't we take a moment to go over the winners. defined as stocks that have moved up the most since we hit dow 6,000. i will show you how to buy these stocks. it's still imminently reasonable. let me take the other side of the trade. tell yourself you missed each one of these moves and move on. let me take the other side of that trade for a second. let me explain how these five winners can keep climbing. we have katcaterpillar up 30% se the dow jones crossed the threshold. allow me to sell katcaterpillar you, a stock still has not yet
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returns to the levels where it peaked in may of 2007 and averages were dramatically lower. cat was behind those prices and much better favorable backed up in the u.s. and chinese economy. even though the averages keep making new all-time highs, caterpillar is still more than six bucks off its own all time high of $116 and change. frankly, that doesn't make sense to me. i think in six months, it's possible the world's economies will look a lot more strong than they do now and i think cat can earn $7 a share next year. sorry at 15 times next year's earnings, that makes caterpillar less than the 1500. and the yield averages 6.25% to boot. not only that, i do not think you've missed the move here. i think cat is a buy right now
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considering the rebound in non-residential construction in this country as well as the booming oil and gas business. we will hear more about that later in the show and become a strong buy. last night we talked about copper going higher. this could happen. next is disney. rallied 20%. disney is not super cheap. not going to sell it to you like that more than 20 times earnings. if there's any large cap growth stock that really deserves to sale a premium to the average stock of the s&p 500 because of its consistency and 16% long term growth rate, i think it's disney. don't some stocks have to be worth more than the average stock just by definition, don't they? disney has a lot going for it, incredible properties and have three successful hit machines with pixar marble and lucas film, aka "star wars."
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these are consistent winners generating amazing returns and sequels. think about disney as a consumer products company. do you believe they're a proctor and gamble, colgate, got companies both can they really do what disney's busy has been doing? when you think about it like that, you have to wonder how can you not own disney especially when you know the ceo runs it like that. then there's intel. ouch. lots of people think they missed the move because it rallied from mid-30s to just below 31 today. they forget it was at 75 bucks 15 years ago. a company with 2.5% yield, fabulous balance sheet and trades at a discount in this s&p and much better than expected earnings and indicated there's more to come, go listen to the conference call. what i really like about intel they got new leadership. ingenui
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ingenuity. bryan get to know him. he's spending money for spending money's sake demanding a higher return for investment for you this shareholder especially now that personal computing is strengthening. fourth biggest gainer since 2000, merck, at one time we called it saint merck, the world's most revered drug company and fell on hard times and why it sells at a discount on the s&p. i never thought i would have said that in the '80s and '90s. lately merck has opened up and could sell its consumer products division for $10 million. it recently sold this company for $14 million, got a considerable animal health division. pfizer's animal health spin-off is looking for a spin-off. i love the animal health much less higher scrutiny and higher
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profits and merck could sell for a profit. knit could buy back and raise its dividend. perhaps it could change its tax status to a so-called inversion. this is a merck that wants to make you money. the ceo, ken fraser seems to have what it takes to shake up the culture. finally, cisco, the best since november, they reported a serious surprise with actual visibility with more good numbers going forward buying back shares and paying a 3% yield. fantastic balance sheet. i've been skeptical of cisco because its quarters have been hit-or-miss but they generated sustainable orders from north american companies that need cisco dear. i see no problem paying 12 times earnings for this one time growth dog finally seems to have gotten it's -- these are winners
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that could go down for a day or two. eric in idaho. >> yes, jim, eric from idaho. >> how are you? >> how are you? >> i'm real good. >> caller: my question is about kansas city southern, given the reason price targeting increase is it a buy, sell or hold? sn>> i have to tell you, i went little less riskier, i'm a union pacific man. jack was on from that point in new mexico. i think union pacific is a better buy even though i know ksu owns mexico. >> to california. >> boo-yah, from san francisco
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bay. >> what's happening. >> my question is about spend ing 25% lower, arm holdings. do you think it's a buy. >> funny, i was looking at it as it keeps going higher. i have to go with intel. for years i was bashing previous management telling them to get in on holdings. i switched. i'm not a buyer of arm anymore. i'm a fire of intel. got five on it? i'm talking caterpillar, disney, intel, merck, cisco, these stocks pushed the dow higher and not too late. a ban on exporting american oil just popped back in the headlines and what it could do at the pump will surprise you. and cvs, find out who is the best for prices. and a report from the people who cut the paychecks. stick with cramer.
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don't miss a second of "mad money," follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer, harsh dagg madtweets or send jim an e-mail at cnbc.com or call at 1-800-743-cn 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something, madmoney@cnbc.com. deserve at humana, we believe if healthcare changes, if it becomes simpler... if frustration and paperwork decrease... if grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home... the gap begins to close. so let's simplify things. let's close the gap between people and care. ♪
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the ceo of jpmorgan is a referred bank er mostly because he has made a lot of right moves before, during an after the financial crisis and shielding his company from losses other companies had to take. last night, he had sad news he has throat cancer that caused the stock to get hurt. many are wondering whether to sell or buy the stock on weakness. first, you have to understand when a company releases a statement that its ceo has
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cancer but curable cancer in a relatively short period of time, as is the case here, that's not a reason to sell? why do i say that? because no investor wants to gito -- no company wants to give a positive prognosis because the stakes are too high even for banks who have a tarnished reputation when it comes to veracity. i can think of several times that a noteworthy ceo had to be treated for curable cansy. maybe the 1995 ceo, andy, and 20 taken from aig and warren buffet at berkshire hathaway. i don't want to make everything about money but all turned into buying opportunities and it rallied in 1998 and gen after he recovered and as for berkshire hathaway, they rallied and all
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were true to their word and the ceos came back to lead their companies to further success. not to be too grisley, to be safe, if the worst does happen, they have gordon smith, and matt zames, the free-year-old, a little young to be thought of the successor and jamie dimon was young when he took it over. it has a sterling reputation under the big banks but hasn't been sterling under dimon's leadership include thissing whaling leadership and the hit it agreed to pay to the government for past discussions. not anything to write home about. but the franchise has gotten very cheap. at this particular price, not for a proxy but dimon's management and i believe is
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recovering. let me give you the real bottom line here. there are many different reasons to buy a stock. it's tough to come out and say, buy a stock because someone is ill. it's important you have perspective and context. if history is any judge, it will be a buying opportunity. speaking of perspective, jamie, wish you the best of luck and an easy, fast recovery. coming up, up to the job? there's three things that matter the most to the market. jobs, jobs and jobs. tomorrow's employment report is sure to rock wall street. ahead of the big number, cramer is giving you an inside look with payroll provider, paychecks. really... so our business can be on at&t's network
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any who watches "mad money" regularly knows i'm a big backer of the drugstore stocks. buy buy buy, buy buy buy. i think a terrific drugstore could make a terrific portfolio for both subscription and over the counter and the front of the store. remember, the baby generation, they get older need prescriptions. what about tens of billions of dollars worth of brands of drugs
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because they carry much higher margins for the pharmacies. this is a fabulous moment to own a drugstore stock. the question is, which there's been a huge consolidation for this industry. there's walgreens, cvs and rite aid. it's time to revisit the groups to find out which are the best buys and less attractive. tonight, i'm re-ranking or re-rating the drugstore shops. rite aid with sits 7 billi$7 bi company has rallied 2.46, despite the fact it has fallen off a cliff lately, dropping 14% in the last month. at the same time, walgreens a 0 $70 billion company has had and astonish i astonishing 27% year-to-date
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move. and even bigger cvs that is charlie victor, so you don't confuse it with channel 2 in north carolina or cnbc has only managed to move up 7% better than a stick in the eye, but still dramatically under-performing. before i give you my new drugstore rankings, let me tell you i like all three of these stocks and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if each of them is up substantially a few years from now. which stocks have the most upside, perhaps the most hidden value that the market's missing. getting started with this valuation, all value. at least in the drugstore's busy. we have walgreens. how on earth could this
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fantastic company be now my least favorite of the three? simple. running up 27% per date for wags, i worry the easy money has already been made from activist investors pushing for strong changes, the european drugstore chain it doesn't already own. in order to change its dom mo style to switzerland where corporate taxes are much lower. the food stores are beautiful for those who haven't been over there. i think it is priced for perfection, walgreens, even if they do exactly what these analysts and activists wanted, a lot seems baked into the share price for me. while we're all waiting on a decision for a possible deal. company results are good if not blowout. i'd like to see blow out, as much as i must point out this is an extremely well run company by
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a fabulous ceo been on here a bunch of times after initially doubting it but i can't get excited at these levels, and much more favorable than when the stock was lower. how about my other favorite drug stock. another upset, cvs camera, a solid drugstore business and owns a fantastic manager in the name of caremark that did a great job managing things as cold weather hurt the retail side of things. i always get this wrong. this stock has lagged and i think it can do well. why? cvs is a genius when it comes to data mining and taking all the information on customers and how to attract customers. and it can take a long time to get an appointment with a
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doctor, they have their own clinic and i like the fact that they bounced tobacco out of the stores, even though tobacco is a terrific stock to own and i don't like to recommend troeb stocks on the show. on the most recent conference call when asked about the company presence in brazil, management said -- said they intend to grow the business internationally organically and through acquisitions. cvs is a national and international growth story and have more than enough cash to pull it off. if management keeps executing, i think they will, i think this kervegt stock could see 90 bucks. i think they will. my number one stock is indeed the $7 and change rite aid. before i would have never mentioned it. it would have been embarrassing to go to write aid opposed to cvs and walter reed which is
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also cvs. i'm saying it is a better buy because it has pulled off a magnificent turnaround because it gave 100% gain i recommended it last year at this time. i think the stock has become a real bargain. remember, rad is down because the company cut its four year earnings guidance. normally, we dislike companies that guide down. guide down means go down. why am i bullish on rite aid, still? as much as the market has punished this stock for the lowered forecast, i think it was nothing more than a hiccup. the reason management had to slice the numbers was because of an unforeseen issue with a wholesale drug supplier. they expected to get cheaper drugs and they had to push it back to a different date. earnings didn't disappear but went to a different quarter. a little bit of money was not made, i accept that but the stock has been crushed.
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they reaffirmed the updated guidance and the company's renovation from remodeling old stores to newellness format is still delivering terrific resulteds. wellness stores keep giving you good numbers better than renovated ones. why do you like rite aid? i bet your store hasn't been renovated are because when they are, 30% of its locations they do much much better. management is planning to do a much better remodeling this fiscal year and it boosts the sales and rite aid keeps generating a ton of cash. remember it was losing a ton of cash? even though i believe rite aid has turned itself around with a truly frabls story it still trades 15% compared to cvs. i think that's a steep discount probably isn't warranted. this $7 and change stock could easily move to the double digit territory the next couple of years which is why i think rite
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aid is a terrific stock. now you have it. new rankings for pharmacy stocks. rite aid first, cvs second and unfortunately priced for perfection, walgreens coming in third. i like these too much to recommend selling any of these. if i was going to put any new money in this group, i'd put it in rite-aid. roger from new york. >> caller: thanks for taking the call. i've learned a thing or 2 from you. >> i like that. >> the company that had the diabetes drug okayed by the fda and the stock is acting funny and i was waiting for this thing to go to the moon and it's trading below what it did on friday. >> let's talk about this. this is a very controversial stock. 30% of the stock is sold short. second, there are a lot of people who feel like they got approval they haven't announced
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partners. if they announce a good partner they are going higher and if not, they are going lower. i am not able to discern one way or the other. i am not opining on the direction of mannkind. scott in nevada. >> 521. hold on a second. >> sure. 521, absolutely. hit me. >> caller: you there? >> i was just checking some ball scores. go ahead. how you doing? let's go. scott. >> caller: thank you. good evening, mr. cramer good evening from life insurance the home of almost 140 visitors a year and no state income taxes. >> a great place to have a bachelor party. >> caller: do i buy, hold or sell mgm versus wynn resorts. >> why do you put a gun to my head like that. you know what i say? take that gun away from my head.
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i like both stocks. the fact the stock didn't go down, what does that tell you? it tells you -- bull -- that's what it tells you. rite aid comes in first followed by cvs, then walgreens, priced to perfection. ready to hit the road for the holliday weekend? get ready for the highest gas prices in six years. fortunately help may be on the way and the stocks behind the relief could be ready to surge. i'm drawing down next. >> tomorrow, kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post 9 at the nysc.
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there was a huge development for the oil business in the u.s. i think it's not getting enough attention. the commerce department gave partners permission to export what's known as con den say it, basically like crude oil through a very cheap process. why such a big deal?
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come on, nearly 40 years ever since the embargo in the '70s it's fine. they're not allow to export refined crude but not refined oil. now that we're in the middle of a domestic renaissance, it slowed last year. three hottest areas in the country sells it at a dramatic discount for the world price in part because of this export ban. producers can't just sell the oil anywhere. last week's ruling doesn't actually lift the ban. more companies will start applying to commerce for permission to ship it. and looking for new guidelines to lift it the ban. and will take a huge act of congress. and it has been predicted it could happen as soon as next year. let's check in with the founder and chairman and ceo of one of the great stocks we've been
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recomme recommending since the show began, continental resources, what con den say densate means. >> jim, it's good to be with you this afternoon and talk about this subject. >> a lot of people when they read this said this will lead to much higher gasoline prices and that's what will happen if you let people ship our oil. you have reason to believe that's not the case, right? >> for sure, all this increased supplies and particularly with diesel and also gasoline prices, we've seen the effect of that. basically, the refiner's been buying wholesale but like you said the products on world price retail. so the consumers pay just as much or more. this is a -- if you put the chart up that i sent earlier, this differential that existed
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there, up on that announcement that you just mentioned, the pioneer and enterprise announcement, it went away in one instance. it's a dramatic example, a snapshot in time, if you will, you couldn't have a better scientific economic experiment. this is just a small microcosm of what will happen if u.s. exports are released and we ship this oil to other parts. what we're doing today is crazy. we're shipping out all the products the consumer would use, 4.1 million barrels per day currently is being exported of refined products. that's what the consumer needs. i don't think any airplanes, cars or trucks run on crude oil, they run on jet fuel, gasoline and diesel. this situation frankly is hurting the european refiners, much like our east coast refiners were hurt earlier.
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what needs to be done, this chart is an example of that. it changed instantly. if you look at the spread on the other side, that's the part that goes back into the consumer's pockets right there. >> how do we know how ultimately west texas doesn't go up and brent stays up? so, in other words, west texas goes up and brent goes up, they both go up. how are we able to -- it's brent that goes lower, are we producing that much oil we can affect the price of brent? >> we can affect the price of present, certainly. some of these old fields go down in the north sea, they're depleting. the world needs oil. there are parts of it that those refine refineries work much better with this light sweet crude we're producing from the ball can and from the eagleford. we need to be able to export to those refineries that can use it. >> why can't our country build more refineries that can refine
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your high quality oil? >> well, we could. it's going to take a lot of time, number one, and, two, we can't use it all here, we're going to need to ship some of to it the rest of the world to keep the world price down. so, you know, it's a situation that needs to be taken care of. like i say, it's crazy. we're shipping $4 million barrels a day of refined products. >> when you go to the commerce department and try to get the same kind of deal that pioneer and enterprise have gotten? >> we have applied for a license. everybody knows that. our situations are a bit different. we're asking for light type sweet crude to be exported. it will be a little bit different from what they've asked for. it's a high gravity material, just like theirs was. >> because i've been a backer of
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continental resources, i have to ask you, seems like if you get that permission, earnings per share would have to go higher after you got that permission? >> it could affect it. that's not why we're doing it. we expect we need to be able to export. certainly, we have that need and so that's why we applied for the license. >> one last question, i keep reading about how they're cracking down on flaring and stuff in north dakota. are we okay? is the north dakota government going up to the big producers and shut them down? >> they have a mechanism in place you need to plan ahead to be able to sell your gas. continental has done a good job of that, we're selling 90, 92% of our gas up there today. we're doing it. they expect other people to do it. most of the gas has been flared, down on the reservation. that's federal permits required down there and federal right of way you have to get so that
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slows them down. >> you've done a fabulous job. i think people who owned this stock since we recommended it cannot believe it. it still goes much higher, i think. i wand to thank harold hamm of continental resources. good to see you. >> always good to see you. >> it makes sense. would be terrific and would bring down the price of crude worldwide what your gasoline is prized off and i'll say it, i think it would be great for clr. at every ford dealership, you'll find the works! it's a complete checkup of the services your vehicle needs. so prepare your car for any road trip by taking it to an expert ford technician. because no matter your destination good maintenance helps you save at the pump. get our multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change, tire rotation, brake inspection and more for $29.95 or less.
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it is time for the "lightening round." what is that? prepare to sell and then the "lightening round" is over. are you ready? lee in california. lee! lee. lee! >> caller: ba boo-yah from southern california. >> what's over there? what's going on? >> caller: what about lynn energy. >> i will be fair, in my book i
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say the same thing. if you have an accounting issue, then you have to sell. that will keep me out of quality stocks. lynn has made several great moves since that accounting issue and the stock is coming back. i have rules. the rules will cost me the occasion like it did with linn, but typically save me the bigger buck. diana in michigan. >> caller: hi, jim, a long-time viewer and third time caller. >> thank you. >> caller: i have had mo since the '90s and pm international since 2008. i'm getting a little nervous here. >> you're fine. you go overseas, you cannot believe -- i had smoke in my hair when i came back from the hotel room and i don't even have any hair. what matters to me with pm is i don't think it's as well as lo. i don't like to push cigarette stocks on anybody but lo is a better buy.
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now to jude in new jersey. hey, jude. >> caller: hey, jim, how are you? >> i'm great, how are you? >> caller: have a nice july fourth. >> which one? >> caller: have a nice july fourth. >> you too, partner. what's going on? >> caller: berkshire hathaway stock? >> yes. i don't think there isn't a day i haven't recommended that stock and today isn't one either. i like it. let's go to dave in south carolina. >> caller: southern boo-yah to you, jim, calling from beautiful south carolina. my question to you is about drill q quurquip, the offshore company. >> if you send me barbecue, i will buy it. i will retreat to another because i like yield, too. danny in pennsylvania, danny. >> caller: hi, jim, how you
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doing? big boo-yah from southwest philadelphia and central university. >> you're around the block from me. i got to tell you we both feel pretty badly what's happening baseball-wise. training camp is coming in a few more weeks. how can i help. >> caller: i'm curious, i don't hold any position but thinking about getting involved in dreamworks. >> dreamworks is at the bottom. did a lot of work. at this price i'm no longer telling people to get rid of it. i like it here and i like all of where you're located from. frank, south carolina, heavily represented tonight. frank. >> caller: yeah, jim, boo-yah to you and your staff. >> my staff makes me look good every single night. >> caller: happy you're no longer sleeping in your car and became a professor for us home gamers. now my question. >> all right. >> caller: igt international. >> patty had a tough lunch and
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now trying to bring out the value. i think the value is almost fully reflected in the stock now but i would not sell it because patty hart will not leave you in a lurch. >> can we go to lou in my home state of new jersey. lou? >> caller: hi, jim, how you doing? >> real good. >> caller: boo-yah to you from exit 9 on the new jersey turnpike. >> i like where we're located and who we play this year. fun football. >> caller: what do you think of weibo? >> i see your weibo and challenge you and raise you with th this. the holdings we recommended and get getting ahead of alibaba. oh. please, please, come on fourth of july special here. to steve in washington. steve! >> caller: big boo-yah and giggles from washington. i have a question for you over
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mastercard? >> my opinion is it is -- he's one of the greatest ceos in the world. i think a.j. can deliver a fantastic quarter. i have to tell you visa look out, as much as i like the guy that runs visa, i think both are sharp but i prefer mom to v. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is a conclusion of the "lightening round"! >> the "lightening round" sponsored by tg ameritrade. [ male announcer ] what if a small company became big business overnight? ♪ like, really big... then expanded? ♪
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tomorrow, we get the labor department's big non-farm payroll for june. the single most important piece of data that comes out every single month. as much as the labor report matters for the market, i like to gather as much information i possibly can because i will be listening to the big payroll processing companies and see what they have to say.
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this morning, something odd. ap released their own job reports showing the highest gains in jobs in 18 months. last week we got the results, earnings from paychecks, number two payroll processor specializing in small and medium sized businesses has a resource kicker, and their earnings numbers weren't anything to write home about. some people say it was a little bit too low, the guidance and why the stock got hit, 98 cents or 2.2%. does this represent a buying opportunity or yield? the ceo of paychecks and more about the quarter and why small businesses are hiring. how are you? >> good. how are you? >> it was clear revenue all time
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highs, growth and new business sale strongest in years and analysts say you stay ed conservative in your guidance. how do i reconcile these? >> the fact is the margins aren't decreasing at all. in fact, i think we will see upside to the operating margin. in the year we hit at the top of the guidance in service revenue growth, operate iing revenue grh and net income. i think it was a very strong year. i think the team did a great job and the guidance is very reasonable. we feel great about our prospects in '15. >> i'm glad you said that. i tried to look at it unbiased. i thought you did better than what everyone expected. i was surprised some people were disappointed particularly because you mentioned at one point you're unbelievably able to spend a lot of money and yet have the gross margins expand,
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unlikely for most companies to be able to do. >> that's right. we feel good about it. increased our i.t. spend and great about innovation and great products out there and acquisitions. our cfo said today very strong financially, our cash balance went up even though we bought back $250 million of stock repurchaseds and paid dividends over $500 million. strong phenomenally ao financia grow growth. climbing gross up 1.8%. checks per payroll, 1.1%. people are looking for .8%. this to me says small business and medium sized businesses are starting to hire. >> i think so. our small business index came out this week that we put out and it looks consistently good. it's not fantastic growth but it's moderate sustained growth
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in the hiring of -- for businesses under fifth. it looks pretty good. the first six months higher than the last six months of '13 by far and i think it will continue. >> this afternoon, we had interesting talk from janet yellin the fed chief who basically said we will not jack up rates and rein in financial imbalan imbalances. if she were to take them up the quarter could really explode, right? >> it really could. every 1% in interest rates is worth about $20 million annually to paychecks goes pretty much to the bottom line. what's amazing, a few years ago at its peak interest revenue for $135 million. it's now running about $40 million. we've made up that revenue -- we're still growing revenue and made it up with services. if the interest comes back we have some real upside there. >> just to get a sense -- i really gave short shift to these
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issues you have, are we going to see human resources at one point, could that be bigger than payroll processing? >> i think it could. we mentioned on the call this morning, we serve over 700, almost 800,000 client employees on our hr services right now. that revenue is growing very quickly, the fastest growth we've seen in the last two years has been ppeo and hso. we have 800 hr professionals around the country who service these clients. i think we'll service client employees in a year, year and a half up to a million from 800,000. >> thank you so much for coming on the show, marty. >> jim, thanks for having us. >> a good story. good yield. i think the people were far too negative when i read through the research. go through the call, you'll feel
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