g number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter. today, on the "closing bell," fed chairman ben bernanke facing tough questions on capitol hill. coming up, we'll talk to one man behind those questions, paul ryan. plus, is now time to put more money to work in technology. will they remain a leadership group this year. we'll get investor reaction straight ahead. live from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. >> hi, everybody. welcome to the big show. i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth.

we have a tug-of-war going on between the bulls and bears. investors remain cautious. now we're waiting for tomorrow's january jobs report. we'll talk about expectations of that in a moment. we are seeing strength in technology today. and weakness in health care, following some rather lackluster earnings results from several names in the health care sector today. meantime, fed chairman ben bernanke was in the hot seat today, as he defended the fed low interest rate policy before lawmakers of the house budget committee. he told them that several factors are still threatening the u.s. economy right now, so rates need to remain low for the foreseeable future. keep it right here, because maria will be talking live with the house budget committee chairman bill ryan himself coming up this hour. >> first, let's take a look at where we stand in the final stretch. the dow jones industrial average down at this point. the nasdaq, also very

fractionally moved here. once again, victory for technology. tech is really the leadership group in 2012. same with 2011 movers as well. the s&p 500 up 1.5 points. bob pisani is our eye on the nyse. >> two things, volatility, the vix and facebook, that's what they're talking about. the volume, we're not talking about volume. but let me point out the vix. people have been asking me, the vix is 18. isn't that really low? here's the problem i have with this. if you back out greece, concerns in iran, the indications are that the vix would be dramatically lower than this, like 14 or so. right now i think the vix is trying to tell you that potentially there is more concerns down there. there might be a volatility pickup in the next month or so, on concerns about either earnings or greece, or iran, like that. i'm saying this should be a lot

lower if you back out greece and everything else. >> we would like to back out greece. >> yes. s&p futures, if you go out to july or so, they're much higher. like at 27. we can only go out to may. but if you go out to july and august, they're at 27. >> any truth to the rumor that the greek prime minister saw his shadow today? and we get six more weeks of negotiations? >> six more weeks of imminent deals. >> any moment now. >> by the way, they called everybody back for negotiations. did you hear about that? and of course, the whole detroit contribution of $130 billion is under negotiation now. everything is slip sliding around of the i want to mention facebook. i got a lot of comments there people this morning saying mr. zuckerberg wants to make a difference. how about the facebook users buy it directly from their facebook page. google did a dutch auction, a little differently, but boston beer, remember in 1995, they let

people buy the ipo through the six-packs. you could send in applications, 33 shares at $15 to beer buyers, and 100,000 applicants applied for 33,333 units. it was a huge success. a fis at $18, got it for $15. why not something like this. of course, electronically, for facebook. mr. zuckerberg, consider it. now, the problem, of course, is all the administrative things would be tough. they gave no indication they would do that. just a thought. >> a look at the movers and shakers so far. details on that, seema. >> let's do that, bill. yield stocks in this tight range throughout the day, with the winners and losers taking their cues from the earnings report. that continues to be a sign of perhaps a healing in the labor market. taking a pulse of the market, though, the dow currently down

five points. we also are going to zone in on technology a little faster than i thought. a lot of these, facebook, of course, creating a pop to the tech ipos, after the filing yesterday afternoon. we have zynga, linkedin, all higher today. we're seeing a lot of strength in retail, target reporting a january same-store sales increase. more than twice what analysts had estimated. gap announcing its january 2012 sales which came in at $833 million, that's also higher than expected. gap ceo glen murray told investors they successfully cleared holiday inventory. and a stronger yen and production disruptions in thailand, a couple of the challenges that sony has been facing this quarter. they reported a net loss at $1.2 million for the quarter. more than doubled its projected loss for the full fiscal year. sony currently down more than

5.5%. back over to you. >> seema, thank you so much. just like stocks, treasury near the flat line today. the jobs number out. let's go to rick santelli with that angle. >> over to you, rick. >> i can remember about 20 years ago, these job reports, the bond market and futures with trade five different handles. volatility in treasuries isn't what it used to be. remember, we have what's going on in europe, what's going on with the hearings, with congressman ryan and ben bernanke. we had chicago fed president, a big conference, charles levine here in chicago. not a lot of volatility. contrast that in some ways with a 24-hour chart of the ten-year boon. it started out a lower yield. you see its yields ran up and closed unchanged. it's handicapping how long we have to wait for details on greece. if you want to see how a dollar index chart looks over ten

years, you'll see we've dropped about 33%. the dollar index probably isn't a great case for the real value of the currency, because it's mostly paired against another currency in the form of a euro. one-month chart of the etf, for corporates, another new contract high. maria, bill, back to you. >> thank you so much, rick. stay right there. we bring in now steve liesman, and of course, on the heels of the bernanke testimony today, steve, i think it was interesting that bernanke said setting u.s. fiscal policy as a priority should be a priority of congress right now. so did he outline steps to do that? and what would that mean for an economy that's still somewhat fragile? >> he doesn't do that, maria. he doesn't want to wade into the different priorities of how the government should do it. he raised the rhetoric a little bit, more than he has in the past, warning a serious economic consequences, if they don't

solve the fiscal problem, warning that investors could actually lose confidence in the united states, unless we're put on a longer term track. but you know, maria, what's interesting with all the press conferences and transparency and all that kind of stuff, i think taking some of the edge off the economic and monetary outlook from these particular hearings, i think more of the theater is political than it is ultimately economic. and the big event was when paul ryan, the chairman of the committee, went after bernanke, frankly, on the issue of whether or not interest rates are helping or hurting the economy and whether or not the fed was actually soft on inflation, to bring down the unemployment rate, bernanke tried to defend fed policy against those charges. but it tells us, maria, that fed policy remains a significant political question for this coming campaign season. >> yeah. of course, we're going to speak to paul ryan on the program coming up. >> great. >> we'll get more details on that. rick, let's face it, bernanke laid it out for us in the last

meeting, telling us they're going to keep rates low until 2014. which was a surprise to some people he actually put that date in there. >> no, it was. and, you know, some fed officials, and granted, they speak independently, those are kind of the words that ben bernanke used to describe the ultra dove, the lone descender of the last meeting, evans, he's thinking we need another $1 trillion of qe-2. ben bernanke kind of distanced himself from that. i understand there's a little political theater going on, but i thought this hearing brought up a number of significant issues. when was the last time you heard a major congressman like ryan involved in many of the financial issues of the country, saying we don't have enough discipline. you keep rates low, we keep spending. very honest. >> i think i misspoke when i said theater. >> no, no, i didn't -- i'm not going to you. i thought what ryan did was amazing. >> ryan's questioning was excellent. and what was excellent about it from my standpoint as a financial reporter is he asked

questions that are part of the debate in the market. we see that way too rarely in front of congress. my hat is off to ryan for the questions he asked. the point i was making is we didn't learn all that much new on his outlook on the economy or in monetary policy, because of all the stuff we got last week. and more of the focus was the political back-and-forth. >> which is why we didn't really see a market reaction. >> i think that's right, maria. >> thank you very much, gentlemen. we'll check in later. >> rick santelli is good theater, too. and we mean that in a good way. we've got 50 minutes to go with the dow down a whopping six points. >> the chief operating officer from electronic arts will be with us. >> many games there, they do. as we mentioned, house budget committee chairman paul ryan reacts to been bernanke on the economic recovery.

looking for that. >> stick around. treasury secretary tim geithner getting ready to report on the marks of financial reform. >> here's how the s&p heat map is shaping up this thursday. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. back right after this.

welcome back in the final stretch here on wall street for the day. about 45 minutes left in the trading session. let's get a stat check on the dow, technology continuing leadership in this market today. the major averages drifting sideways ahead of the important january jobs report, which is out tomorrow morning first thing. industrials up as many as 25 points. down as many as 40 points. flat on the session as we speak. some of the big movers, winners and losers, you can see alcoa

showing a gain of 2% here. b of a up about 1%. pfizer and disney, the laggards, bill. >> shares of electronic arts among the technology companies doing well today. up 7%, just under that right now, showing no signs of letup as we head to the close here. the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings last night beat expectations. but the bigger news was the 2 million units sold of the blockbuster massive multiplayer games "star wars: old republic" which has about 1.7 million active subscribers. joining us to take us through the quarter and look ahead, we have the chief operating officer, peter. welcome back. >> hi, bill, how are you? >> good. kind of a slow start for "star wars" when it was first introduced. what kind of subscribership do you expect for that game? >> as you've said, we've got 1.7 active subscribers right now. it only shipped on december 20th. this is a typical mmo pace.

it's the fastest growing mmo ever delivered in the western world. clearly the business model is converting our users into paying subscribers. it's a fabulous business model once it gets going. we certainly expect it to continue at the pace it's at. >> aren't we in a position right now in the industry where a company like yours can't hang your hat on a single game. we're going to get into the social gaming in a moment here, but you can't just hang your hat on the "star wars," or some of the shooting games you have out there right now, right? >> that's exactly right. there's no company in our industry more diversified than electronic arts. we're everything from android to ios phones, to the tablets to pcs, to consoles. social gaming as you point out is important to us, but it's only one of a number of distribution channels we now have on a global basis as a company. >> so you're agnostic about platform. you don't care where people play your game right now, or is there one that has a greater margin for you necessarily? >> i'm always fond of saying if it's got a screen and buttons

and it can play a game, electronic arts is there. but when we deliver content directly to the consumer, origin platform is important to us. it not only allows us to deliver our content directly to the consumer, it also allows us to help them with problems, helps with community. origin is an important part of our strategy going forward. >> are the traditional game platforms, the xboxs and those from nintendo and sony, are those passe now? i don't want you to hit on some of your clients there, but is that the past and now online, and digital gaming is the future? >> not at all. both xbox 360 and ps-3 in particular have got robust online networks, and the play station network are a considerable amount of our revenue comes from delivering a disk to consumers and adding on content. that is a very important part of our business. we expect that to continue to be so. >> social gaming, you just

bought click nation. there are other areas where you're selling under different nation, social gaming. what impact will facebook's ipo have on your business, do you think? >> well, we're a very important part of their gaming mix. with over 4 million daily activities users and 21 million monthly active users. you'll see more of our sports content coming to the platform over the next couple of months as well. as we think into fy-13, you'll see more of the world clals pss. coming forward as facebook continues to grow. >> who plays social games? i'm not one of them, so i have to learn from you on who's playing these things? >> i was about to say everybody. but then everybody except bill i think is my answer now. >> he's faking it. >> i know. i think it's a very simple dynamic, and that's the key.

it can take you as little two minutes, or you can spend two hours playing. for the most part, it's free. it's very approachable and accessible. it's important that we as a company are there if the consumers want to interact with our content on the facebook platform that we have it there. it's also a way of introducing content, if you will, to move the consumer up the value chain to a pc version of the game or console version of the game. very important part of our portfolio. >> if it's everybody but bill playing your social game, what's your favorite social game to play? >> sims social. >> still the sims? how old are the sims now? >> you know, the sims are probably in its 15th year. we've had over 100 million copies of the call game being purchased. probably several hundred million people that can count as sims fans. it's intellectual property recognized around the world and i think that will be a key differentiator going forward in the games industry. >> very good. sims find new life. good to see you, peter moore.

thank you for joining us today. >> thanks, bill. >> take care. what do you play? >> are you sure you're not a fibber and you're really a closet paper and don't want to admit it? >> i have no idea what they're all about. do you play? >> no. i'm sorry. >> bill and maria don't play. >> we've got 40 minutes left in the trading day. we've got a market that is flat. technology, the winner, up again on nasdaq. >> gold continued to shine, more than 12% gain so far this year. we're going to break down the charts in talking numbers. we'll find out just how high the precious metal may still be heading here. >> also ahead, house budget committee paul ryan with us, telling us why he believes the fed's low interest rates policy could fuel asset bubbles. and erode the value of the dollar. >> first, a look at how each member of the dow has been trading today. about 50/50. back after this.

i'm sharon epperson at the nymex. have you been watching natural gas today? prices have surged 7.5%. amid data this morning showing a bigger than expected decline in natural gas supplies. but some traders say that still, even though it's the second week in a row that we've seen better than expected expectations here in terms of more bullish expectations, there are still below-average withdrawals ahead and the $2.23 level january low, they're still keeping an eye on it. other traders saying, this could be a technical bottom here for natural gas. bill, we're also watching the

sell-off in oil. maybe we've seen some spread trading here with folks buying natural gas and selling crude as a result. back to you. >> i'm sure the report on the oil didn't help either. >> absolutely. >> thank you, sharon. >> sure. >> less than an hour of trading to go. gold has gotten a boost on comments from fed chairman bernanke with bouillon breaking out on highs. let's look at the charts as we start talking numbers on the technical side with rich ross, global technical strategist at grayson, and peter bookmar, equity strategist at miller d tayback. >> vince lombardi used to say winning isn't a sometime thing. the technicals suggest the streak continues. let's take a look at the chart. you'll see what i mean. we're already up 12% on a year-to-date basis. decisive chart break from that well-defined downtrend from the

quinn petwin peak highs. we think the bull trend should resume in earnest. finally, let's look at the moving averages. they just kissed, but they do not cross. that's what you want to see. we think the bull trend resumes in earnest. 1900 is in the cards at a minimum. >> back to an all-time high at some point. >> no doubt. >> what's moving the price here, obviously lower interest rates help. but is gold trying to tell us that it fears inflation? or something else? what's going on there? >> gold is self-defense against global money printing whose pace has never been greater now. gold's best friend is ben bernanke, new england, bank of japan. as long as these central bankers continue to depreciate their currencies, gold is one of the few places for self-defense against that. as long as that's happening, gold's going to continue to go higher. >> so as long as the fed is

keeping rates low, and they say they want to do it until at least the end of 2014, you think that's the green light for the price of gold, peter? >> yeah, because the cost to carry is almost nothing, and the purchasing power continues to decline. let's say the fed miraculously meets its 2% cpi target rate, that means gold is the only protection against that, allowing inflation at the fed so badly wants but won't set. >> all right. quick look at the mining stocks. does this translate to higher price of gold to the mining shares themselves do you think? >> thus far, they haven't. we've seen a very curious divergence. if you look at the junior minors, it's even more stark. the junior miners last year down almost 60%, even as gold surged down to a new all-time high. we think the relationship is going to resume. see a beautiful v-shape head-and-shoulders bottom.

a multi-month downtrend. we see upside to the 200-day of 33 at a minimum. >> so we'll see what happens there. thank you both for your thoughts on gold today. that's "talking numbers." >> 30 minutes until the closing bell sounds. we're talking to paul ryan today. he'll tell why he's concerned the feds are keeping the interest rates low until late 2014, could end up doing more harm than good. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

welcome back. bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. low volatility, very low, little range here. we went into positive territory, then back into negative territory. we're getting modest breakouts in a number of sectors, including the airlines, the bank index, oil service, semiconductors. all these are four, five, six, seven-month breakouts.

earnings halfway through earnings season, the company i want to hear most from, in the next 24 hours, simon property group. new historic high right now. their earnings will be out tomorrow. biggest small developer in the country with the choppy retail same-store numbers, i want to hear how things are doing in the retail space. they always have something interesting to say. guys, back to you. >> bob, let me ask you about this health care area. because you say health care stocks are lagging. is there a catalyst on the horizon that could change that? what do you expect to be the driver of this market sector by sector in the next year? >> health care has held up very well recently. for example, hmo stocks, many of them hitting new highs. in anticipation of that pricing that's going to improve as the baby boomers are getting older. that's a big play right now. the pharmaceutical stocks, as you know, bristol-myers, 4% dividend yields right now. major players in the last year. pharma's holding up pretty well. >> bob, thank you.

the head of the house budget committee is taking aim at ben bernanke today, saying the fed policies would do more harm than good given the low level of interest rates. during bernanke's testimony today on the state of the economy, republican congressman paul ryan said the fed's moves would risk higher growth. he talks more about that. plus we get reaction to the latest outlook for the budget office's expectations on the economy. congressman, always wonderful to have you on the program. >> good afternoon. >> let me get your take on where we are in the recovery first off. because we know that the cbo confirmed yesterday that it's projecting economic growth to remain sluggish. how do you characterize things today? >> look at the last time we had a recession like this in '82, the first year after that recession we grew. the fed was way off on its growth projections, now downw d

downward. the point i was trying to make with chairman bernanke is i'm glad that he's adding more transparency to the fed by putting this policy statement out. it's just the contents of the policy statement that i have some real questions about. >> yeah. i want to get to that. but that's pretty stunning numbers that you just gave us. it feels like we should be a lot farther along. >> a lot. >> in the recovery. than 2%. if, you know, 4.5% was the result last otime. you said the fed has been too loose for too long. we know bernanke said he's going to keep rates low, exceptionally low until the end of 2014. what's the issue? >> my point was, in 2003, 2005, i think many of us believed he was too loose, they were too loose for too long. the chairman doesn't acknowledge that. he does not believe that the fed really gave rise to the asset bubble that gave us the housing meltdown. so if they don't think they made a mistake then, then what's to stop them from repeating it again.

now, we were at crisis rates, after the crisis, and nobody really disagrees with that. we thought there was a chance of a deflationary spiral, the fed did what it did. we're now years into the interest rate policy now they're going to do it through 2014. they put this new statement out, which i'm glad the fed is being more transparent with its policy statements, to two-page policy statement, the first page is, let's do inflation targeting, which i think there's a good case to be made for that, but the second page is much more ambiguous. as you know, the fed had this debate whether they should have an employment target or not. they specifically in this statement say, you know, the kind of employment we think should be had in this economy is 5.2% to 6%. if we have relatively deviations from our inflation target, or employment, what we think it ought to be, basically an employment target, then we're going to view with a balanced approach. what i get out of that ambiguity is they're going to lean toward an employment target, and have

it acceptably higher inflation than their preferred policy rate. which tells me that that statement, or at least the ambiguity in the statement means they're leaning more to the dove side and away from the hawk side, that we could have some inflation above their tolerant rates. but you and i know as well, once the cow's out of the barn, it's out. i question the fed's ability to mop up after that moment has arrived. >> would you prefer that rates start creeping higher now? i mean, here we are talking about the fragility of the economy, yet you're saying we shouldn't be keeping rates where they are for as long as they are. so would you prefer the fed start moving on rates? this year? >> it's dangerous for members of congress to start acting like economists. i'm not going to say what kind of rates they should set up. i think a path for normaling our federal reserve policy, i agree with some of the dissenters. especially the one that left hon ig. i agree with some of them on the federal reserve. yes, we have to have

accommodative economic policy, but it's still very accommodative. i'm not going to suggest we don't need accommodative policy. this is extremely loose, but more to my point, this new sort of relative deviation standard, if you will, that the fed has in this new policy statement leads us to believe that they're going to err on the side of employment and against inflation. and that, to me, erodes the credibility, and makes it less certain they're going to get inflation under control, once money velocity picks up and we have a problem. >> let me ask you this. on the issue of the dollar, you've said that the fed policies could eventually erode the value of the dollar. we constantly hear how the administration believes in a strong dollar policy, and yet we've already seen the dollar -- the value get eroded. what's the worst possible scenario there, congressman? >> we debase our currency. we literally wipe out living standards for people living on

fixed incomes. and so i wasn't necessarily saying that everything he does is wrong. i was simply trying to say there are down sides to this policy, and the down side in this particular case are the savers of america, the people who live on cds, the people who live on fixed incomes. and if we want to have the kind of lasting recovery that gets us more productivity, higher living standards, you need investments. you need savings. not just consumption. and so we are actually harming the savings with this, by not getting toward a more normalized monetary policy. and yes, you could have a more normalized monetary policy, and still being very accommodative. i would say where we are and where we're going, and this new statement from the fed, leads us to fear that they're not going to catch the inflation problem in time. and that's my concern. >> so you criticize obviously the policies in terms of where we are, and the economy, the cbo report, once again, indicating that we should be a lot farther

along in this recovery than we are. >> right. >> tell me what this means. you've said that it is an indictment on the president's failed policy. what would you like to see done differently to turn things around? >> that's the point i'm saying. the federal reserve is stepping in and bailing out bad fiscal policy. because there is no fiscal policy. we would pass a budget, fixing our debt problems. we would reform our entitlement programs, and still do it on our own terms. reform the tax code, lower the rates, make us more internationally competitive. if you tax something more, you get less of it. we want to stop this enormous regulatory onslaught hitting the american economy and small businesses, remove the uncertainty, the government activism that is putting a chilling effect on capitalism and job creation and have a budget that is actually passed that puts us on a path of debt re druks aduction and prosperit. they didn't pass a budget last year or the year before.

it doesn't look like they're going to pass one this year. the law says we have to pass a budget every year. to me, that lack of just basic leadership by the president and the senate is part of the problem we have. and the federal reserve shouldn't feel they need to come bail us out with an overaccommodating monetary policy. >> can romney do differently? and who should be his running mate? >> i'm not going to answer those questions. >> come on! you've got an instinct. you have an opinion. >> anybody can do differently. look, we need to win this election, but we need to give the country a choice of two futures. and give them specific ideas on how we will fix these problems, if they give us the permission and the wherewithal to do it. i said in the senate and the house, fix this debt, reform the tax code, retain the regulatory system to get rid of crony capitalism and get back to the entrepreneurial, small business, limited government. it's not too late to get those things and we've got to do that. >> congressman, we so appreciate your time tonight.

>> good to see you, maria. we're getting ready to trade the close. find out why our next guest says investors need to pay attention to the dollar index. >> after the bell, he was bearish on the semiconductor industry last year. why is dan niles now betting on that group? his top semi picks ahead at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. look at the names in technology and how they're doing today. back in a moment.

a quiet day. the nasdaq, big caps are quietly moving up to 11-year all-time highs. that's where the nasdaq 100, qqqs, if you will, and they are driven today by strong earnings from qualcomm, which hits a 12-year high. expedia traveling to record high territory today. as is zynga. one of the upshots from that s-1 filing from facebook is that zynga brings in a lot of revenues. that has a lot of analysts recalculating when they report on valentine's day. a lot of them for them today at

an all-time high. back to you. >> lots of love for technology, bertha. thank you. about 17 minutes before the close today. nasdaq, the market leader today for its third consecutive winning session. albeit on light volume. right now, it's up 12 points, about half a percent. but i think the other averages would take that right now. the nasdaq was up at 20 points. the fear indicator is not showing any fear right now. down another 2.5%. we're trading at 18. it's testing that 18 level right now. it's been below 20 since january 18th. so it's been for a while. below that level there. >> wow. we've got about 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds. our next guest is keeping a close eye on the move of the dollar-to-yen relationship. paul richards with us from ubs americas. joining us right now. first, your expectations, paul, good to have you on the program. >> hi, maria.

>> your numbers tomorrow? >> i think the numbers are going to be slightly on the stronger side. i think the market's been lulled into a dove sense. but things don't feel so bad to me. i would expect numbers 175,000, maybe employment around 8.4%. i'm just a little bit more positive personally. >> if that materializes, what's the impact on the markets? how do you think investors react? >> i think investors react somewhat positively. i think the fed would be called a little bit to question op the call of eight days ago. i think the ten-year treasury would retrace close back to 1.952%. that could possibly quell, i think, any gains on equities. but to an extent, the dollar is set to gain in that environment. i think you'll see a sell-off in bonds, somewhat neutral on stocks. but i think the dollar starts to rally again. >> i know you're studying what has happened over the last eight days.

since the fomc statement, with a dovish comment, what is the issue with the dollar/yen? >> the dollar/yen is interesting right now. last year we saw the japanese intervene to the tune of $120 billion. they did that, because of the concerns about the strength of the yen, effectively on world war ii highs. we're now within 1% of that level, and now we're looking to come in around 1.4% annualized. the yen is actually 2% stronger than the last time they intervened. we also heard the finance minister came out last night sfresing his concern about the strength of the yen. the japanese typically will give you verbal warning before actual intervention. >> we'll watch that. you want to buy the dollar then? >> i would buy the dollar yen. on the down side, you have the protection of potential intervention. if we're to see u.s. interest rates pop up to 2% in the ten-year, the correlation with the dollar/yen is strong. target around 78 in the next week or so.

>> we'll be watching that. paul, thanks so much. >> anytime. thank you. >> paul richards joining us, ebs managing director. >> 14 minutes to go before the bell. the dow right now is up two full points. >> you know, with volume like this, you have to believe investors are sitting on the sidelines. and have been sitting on the sidelines. tomorrow, the employment numbers. up next, which sectors are making the biggest moves as others stay on the sidelines. >> how the major currencies have been trading so far today. back after this. hool science ter made me what i am today. our science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three years we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love science. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪

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welcome back. technology the winner again today in the markets. dow industrials down. but nasdaq up about 11 points. seema mody, rounding out the sector with the winners and losers. see seema, this is the place to be. >> stocks have been pretty mixed this afternoon as disappointing corporate news overshadowed the optimistic words from ben bernanke. we had a round of disappointing earnings from the pharmacies. that's why we're seeing weakness

in health care today. merck with disappointing earnings today. we're waiting to hear from vertex pharmaceuticals. i'll get those earnings shortly after the bell. on the flip side, again, a lot of focus on technology. the nasdaq is up 10% year-to-date. today being helped by shares of qualcomm, reaching a 12-year high. and strong outlook for the rest of the year. switching focus to retail. retail has had a good run today as well. the biggest loser, though, on the s&p 500 today is abercrombie & fitch, down better than 13%. tumbling in trade to a 52-week low, after the company said their fourth-quarter results will not meet street estimates. that's due to weakness in u.s. sales. the retailer also expects margins to decline. two main reasons, lower than expected sales and higher markdowns. >> thank you very much. i'm back on the floor of the new york stock exchange with ak

steel, which is aks, down sharply after bank of america, merrill lynch lynch underperforming from neutral and trimmed the price target to $9. which is about where it is right now. they may have to go back to the drawing board. b of a taking a more cautious view on the steel market and global supplies. in that back drop, the firm said it's highly likely ak steel is going to have to issue debt or equity to support a possible shortfall of at least half a billion dollars through 2014. b of a expects it to result from pension and vertical integration costs and it's taking a toll on its shares. in the last year, ak steel has wiped out half of its equity, almost. >> wow. bill, thank you. we'll take a short break. we have the closing countdown after this short break. after the bell, we have live coverage of timothy geithner's press conference on the progress of implementing financial reform. keep it here.

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coming up on the four-minute mark before the bell closes, this got lost in the sauce today. nobody was talking about this, but did you hear about the chief financial officer of royal dutch shellsa today that said for planning purposes, the company's anticipating that the price of brent north sea crude could fall to between $50 and $90 a barrel this year. so even if you took the median, $70 a barrel, that would be a $40 hair cut on the price of brent north sea crude. what would that do to wti? wti crude today was down on higher than expected inventory levels. so we saw a big decline there. in fact, it was down $2 at one time. it came off those lows. but when you look at the correlation between stocks and oil for the last year at least, you wonder what the price of oil would do to the stock market over that time frame. i'm very pleased to bring in our

market analysts today who have been very patient this year, dean is the president of strategic market strategist, macrorisk advisers, and doug at ing. if oil goes sharply lower, what would that do to the stock market? >> over the recent time period, stocks and crude are highly correlated. a collapse in crude implies the inflationary collapse like we saw in 2008, if it's something specific to brent, you know, whether it's supply related, maybe that's a different story, but i think the correlation of risk assets is very much driven back to fed policy. >> what would stocks do in your opinion? >> because it's not discounted in the market, the market would explode. >> you think it would go higher? >> it would benefit business, it would be a big stimulus for businesses and consumers. that would be reflecting on the market fundamentals. >> why have stocks and oil

correlated in the last year or so? as dean points out? >> oil has been volatile, stocks have been volatile. we see there's a big game changer, the fracing that's going on, we see a lot of new supply coming on from north america. we could become energy independent within a decade. and i think that's what shell was talking about, is we have a lot -- because of technology, we have a lot of different things that could bring oil down. >> okay. today the best performing sector among them were the s&p technology shares. again, nasdaq leading the way there. you had electronic arms, qualcomm leading the sectors higher. among the worst performers, worst performing group, health care sector. but you had boston scientific, cigna, merck turned in disappointing earnings there. do you go with the leaders at this point, dean, or do you think the laggards would be a good value right now? >> it's on the big picture, and

the big picture after spending a lot of time talking to fund managers this month is people are getting back into risk. the alternative, i.e., being treasuries as per ben bernanke's design is very, very painful, i think the vix is going down. folks are seeing the waters are a little calmer. people are getting back into the market. >> do you go with the leaders or laggards? >> the winners. they show they can withstand volatility. we did a study on the earnings coming out, there's a huge disparity between the winners and losers. winners had made $10 billion, losers have lost $14 billion. that's an enormous spread. go with the winners. >> all right. dean, doug, good to see you both again. thank you for being patient this hour. that will do it for the first hour of the "closing bell." as we go out here, we're down about eight points on the industrial average, and again, they're waiting for those jobs numbers tomorrow morning, 8:30 a.m. eastern time, from the government. expect job grow