enthough there is no underlying reason why the transaction shall be approved, you will end up with an extended review process and review processes that get elongated bring risk. and the more risk there is, the question becomes how does the business perform during what could be a 12-15-18 months until closing? that is that risk that buyer is underwriting and a lot of boards we are 30 minutes into the u.s. are uncomfortable with that. do we ever get past it? trading day on this wednesday, i think after we get past this may 15. election and what you get a all-time highs for the s&p 500 change in administration and a change in antitrust policy, or after core pci cools for the first time in six months. retail sales softer than expected a potential warning there is a sense that the here and now is going to stay for another four years, i think sign on the consumer as they either one of those is likely to be a significant catalyst on prepared to report earnings. those deals that have yet to the marketplace. david: what about the other item that you mentioned, the question the fitness economy what has of the pne? we hear from a lot of limited weight loss drugs meant for jim's.

partners, they are impatient about getting some of their capital back from the general partners? are there vehicles to get around that that you might be involved in? paul: there definitely are vehicles. let's unpack what the problem is. if you have private equity firms who have bought assets in katie:: i m katie greifeld and the low interest rate environment and now rates are at meaningfully higher, there is a reluctance to sell those assets welcome to bloomberg markets. in a period where they a lot of good news on the screen underwrote it at one multiple behind me. and now they are looking at selling it in a different multiple. s&p 500 on an all-time high of one of the great things about about .4%. private equity firms if they are the same story if you look at exquisite in controlling the exits. big tech higher to the tune of what we're seeing is what they sense as rates have crested, about point 4%. they have yet to come down. it will not be until rates start you can see the 10-year gilts to come down that we believe you currently lower by point 05, will see a lot of monetization from the private equity industry. since there hasn't been a lot of pretty close to 430 and some of that has come back. monetizations, they have been reluctant to continue to call consumer prices cooled in april capital from their limited for the first time in six months partners and in fact, i think we are at an extended periods of time where the capital close to which is a welcome relief for

the fed. investors and private equity funds continue to exceed the we have had a while to digest capital returned. that is putting pressure on the had by numbers. take us below the headline what deployment of capital so private were some of the biggest component moves? equity is less aggressive in deploying capital and they have been less willing to monetize mike: they were good because their own assets. they came down on the month of we are trying to work with for the month basis. private equity firms to deal with those liquidity issues. most of the categories people watch did go on the right direction. used cars fell as to cost for david: in los angeles at milken, we heard a lot about continuation vehicles. explain how that might work and how they might release the health care. for many people although prices pressure. paul: the idea of the continuation fund starts with a premise where we find an asset are still rising. that you like, you own it, you continue to deliver superior results. there are some areas the fed this forced shotclock in will be worrying about. the good news in the numbers is monetizing it 5, 6 years in just housing where it is so small to give him the ability to investors many of whom would be perfectly content if you decline but there is a decline continued to own the asset and to the lowest we have seen. get excess returns, but you have other limited partners who have other needs for the capital, with rent going down as well.

more liquidity. so what it continuation vehicle does is give those limited this may presage a further drop partners who went liquidity the in housing. that is what the fed has been ability to leave or to exit the waiting to see. investment and let new pools of capital come in. you mentioned earlier about and the private equity fund retail sales. it's not as bad as of books but continues to own and manage the asset. katie: that was paul taubman, it is. not only did the numbers come in week but the previous numbers pjt partners founder, chairman were revised down. and ceo, along with david westin. tomorrow we will hear from it's a question of what people elizabeth greer, jd power vp of were buying. things like automobiles did not electric vehicle practice. this is bloomberg. sell down .8%. ♪ you take out gasoline but look at food prices, grocery stores, retail sales for motor vehicles, they are showing the way people bought was the stuff they usually by and what they did not by was bought more infrequent.

it looks like the fed is getting what it wants. katie: when it comes to inflation they didn't have the confidence that they did at the beginning of the year. i know this is just one data print. with this give the fed more confidence to coverage? mike: they wanted see several more indications and months worth of data along those same lines before they make any decisions at all. katie: always appreciate the break down. let's bring this conversation to the markets because our next guest says profits are the glue.

walk me through that. profits being glue. if you look at the earnings season we are in, how strong us a clue? >> it is very sticky. profits are rising very strong. historically what we have seen the nasdaq 100 had an earnings shortage in 2022 that's where we had s&p excluding gnostic. it's is going to show very tamra, izzy, and emma... they respond to emails with phone calls... and they don't 'circle back', they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety-clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy, and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses strong profit growth and when i let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. katie: vanguard is naming blackrock betterment celine ramsey as the company's next think of earnings season is ceo. he will be the first outsider to proven how strong the u.s.

lead the firm. profit cycle is and that's the ramsey helped oversee a massive reason i will keep my target at expansion of blackrock's business. some more, let's turn to eric 5500. katie: 5500 year end and look balchunas who literally wrote the book on vanguard and jack will go. this is interesting because where we are now at 5272 what blackrock is number one in the etf industry and now the former does that path look like? head of etfs is greater the bumpy or smooth? number two issuer in the >> we are thinking it will be industry. what do you make of it? strong with profit being the key eric: it was a bit of a focus. watching nasdaq financials are surprise. i called it a semi-shock. greg davis was my first pick, but this was a dark horse pick i thought because he was not at participating in the cycle and blackrock anymore and not only had he run the etfs product line when you add financials into the mix you can talk about at blackrock growing it from one broadening large-cap equity. trillion to two point 5 trillion, he can clearly run an the broader take it always etf business. he has the experience. but to me, he has the vanguardian dna and i think that happens during election years and we should be moving higher was necessary for him to the

by the end of the year. this job. he is truly interest. he is a student of indexing, he we will get into the election but it's interesting there was a note out from bmo lifting their knows the history back and forth. so i think it wasn't just his target to 50 600. experience, i think he also won over their hearts in the interview and that is important what goes into you potentially because vanguard is a very of 30 year target. private, almost cult-like what elements which you need to see before lifting here target? place, and to veer from that history of hiring internally, manish: u.s. bond deals go you must submit a really good impression. katie: when you think about it blackrock and vanguard as below 4%. spiritual opposites. blackrock has over 400 etfs in every single asset class. earnings surprised on s&p for vanguard's lineup, they have 86 next year and that would lead tdfs they don't charge commodities, crypto and derivatives. do you see salim ramji adhering to the vanguard culture, may be bringing some of that blackrock the case for rate cuts. flavor to vanguard? given that is not our base case eric: it's an interesting we don't expect the 10 year to question and for analysts like

go below 30%. me, it will be fun to watch. obviously vanguard is an into katie: i hope we have not lost something like bitcoin. the door is now open, in my you. if you are so there that is an opinion, for at least an etf interesting comment that you need to see bond yields below 4% platform if not them launching one where they go into some of the stuff blackrock offers. before upgrading the s&p target i think ramji will do very implies this is a macro driven little to the etf product line. market. we will work on getting he will focus on things like customer service, appealing to younger investors and may be their wealth management business manish back. which is about 300 billion dollars, but almost 90% internal gamestop, is it over? vanguard customers. it is something he could market externally and grow up because you get the full wealth and management for anywhere from 20 bailey: we had 15, 16 yesterday 5-10 basis points. so volatility is there but you need more buyers i've been tracking the story going back to 2021 the media is going viral so there is a lot of challenges and opportunities for him outside of etf's. i think he will tinker with that a bit. we could see where he pushes the envelope a bit. and staying mainstream regular traders creating rocket katie: let's talk about of course the race, we have

blackrock with 2.8 $200 in u.s. accounts. we see more sellers and buyers etf. on fidelity. take a look at vanguard, i think the stock is 16% from all-time highs so plenty of people want the current number is $2.6 trillion. when does vanguard overtake blackrock? eric: probably in two years, to cash out the stock. depending on the market. katie: down 60% from the if the market gets worse, vanguard will take them over all-time high, 25% today. faster. market appreciation means less in a down market. it is dizzying to keep up with. if we keep having a bull market over the years, it will take let's talk about amc. longer, maybe three years. that said, blackrock is no slouch, they are very amc seizing the moment here competitive. a huge hit with the bitcoin etf, swapping debt for equity. vanguard doesn't have that. this meme mania turns into the but vanguard has a solid lead. so salim is being handed news for the company. bailey: 23 million shares in -- ironically the guy who used to run blackrock is great to see vanguard pass them. exchange for 164 million for notes due in 2026. they have billions of dollars in

debt due in 2026. thus the difference between this company and amc. katie: going from top to top they announce on monday that there. eric, enjoy this conversation as they raised 250 million in cash always, eric balchunas of bloomberg intelligence tune into me and eric every monday on etf iq at 12:00 p.m. eastern. coming up, we have frank mccourt, jr. he joins bloomberg tech next. that's is it for "bloomberg announcing they were looking to markets." i am katie greifeld, and this is return 52 million a debt. bloomberg. ♪ it does make it more appetizing to clean up these balance sheets which is why there trading so poorly. katie: amc still has a lot of what to talk. tell me about new york community bank. there are transactions going on there. bailey: applauding their deal since sell 5 billion in loans to jp morgan to try to recoup some of the losses. this is one of the regional banks that has fallen under

pressure with under what the path would look like. they're trying to shore up the balance sheet and take advantage of the lungs they have to free up cash. katie: that was an ugly chart we saw there was going on in netflix and spores. bailey: i know you love sports. this is a deal that would include christmas day games. they had the roast of tom brady . katie: incredible. bailey: live spores is a big moneymaker and is interesting to see how they are paying for 18

streaming services. katie: i think they should have nikki glaser roast every single week. let's get some final thoughts with manish kabra. you said you would want to see 10 year yields below 4%. with this conversation with profits and earnings it sounds there are a lot of macro elements here. manish: there is a huge dispersion within the profit cycle so this is based around technology. and materials and india, japan.

everything from the large cap booms in the market. if you go into smaller companies and we need a base coat. at that point we can talk about increasing capital into smaller companies. thus the reason we should see bond yields going below for and enough credit to get for rate you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it. people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. why are we not rethinking this? i am more... i'm more than who i am on paper. >> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and cuts. beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ♪ inaction is a good policy at this point. katie: for fed rate because looks more likely this morning >> i am caroline hyde at bloomberg world headquarters in then yesterday morning. new york. let's finish on the u.s. >> and i am ed ludlow in san election. francisco. we know what president biden looks like and what president trump look like what is the one >> coming up, a new bidder

trait that would work in either imagines for tiktok. scenario? we sit down with project liberty fund are frank mccourt. >> and we bring you the manish: all the policy of takeaways from google's ipo developers biotin 2.0 and trump 2.0 are opposite. the only part is de-risking china it is helping industrials we like industrials for that reason. people will restoring the fisheries stocks. they have worked with trump when he was in power and thus the only trait that works. katie: u.s. industrials under trump and biden. we appreciate you sticking with us. that is manish kabra

retail sales are stagnating are we reaching the consumer is breaking point? that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪

so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

katie: april retail sales come in flat as consumers rope in their spending. joining us now is adrian yih. were going to get into the production maker and luxury dealers. when you look at the broad economic data we are seeing are you seeing it the individual company level as well? >> we are seeing it very patchy. we talk about the consumer being relatively healthy. in the broad swath of the 70 51 50 k which is where specialty retail aims. they have the capacity to spend but they are bearing -- being

careful where they spend. you have to dig into the numbers that is a stock ticker environment. katie: how does it translate into the decisions retailers are making? will we see more discounts? how do we respond? adrienne: we finished the retail quarter similar to marge/april. in the promotions immediately kicked up in the month of april. what we saw in january through march was the cleanliness of the u.s. distribution network being clean. there wasn't much promotional activity and they were trying to hold on to this promotional discipline. the weather for apparel and

people getting out and getting to the mall has been atrocious in the northeast area. there are three things that work to tamp down the demand one is selective inventory for promotions to drive those and two has been this weather pattern. and there is the calendar shift with all of these holidays moved around. distorting march and april. katie: who is best positioned you talked about promotions across the board and a lot of retailers employ that strategy. he was the most likely to be successful? adrienne: in apparel we are in an air pocket. we love clothing retailers if you're starting to see goods and the apparel midstream if you want to play defense.

knowing there has been a consumer malaise. if you want to play the weakest and wait until after the quarter is reported because we think there will be sloppiness going on. we want to get into names that will play into this be denim trend. american eagle, the got. i was say hold on we don't see those orders you have. katie: i want to look backwards and your downgrade to lululemon. this position little of her big versus little. put that into layman's terms? what that means, that soul a what? adrienne: silhouette shift his head to toe top, bottom, she

wear. we have been in the greater part of the last 15 years into a skinny leg denim. in the past five years, that denim trend has turned into an athleisure trend. as we come out of the pandemic, we are seeing the for year of the denim based trend that is baggy and pare back to totally different footwear. in the fall season, back to school a 15-25 female trend. she will not a things for the room in her closet and she probably has a lot of athleisure and beauty products. katie: i'm curious in your

position, how closely do you pay attention to fashion trends and how to sign a form calls? adrienne: i have never felt those could sustain full-term but when you think about the top to bottom database we have turned over from the denim base bottom. we are in the uptick cycle for so these broad-based secular changes in fashion that we will make a call out. katie: fascinating, really enjoyed this conversation. i haven't worn denim in 15 years. adrienne yih thank you so much. we will have our social climbers segment. thus coming up next, this is

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katie: it's time now for social climbers. looking at what is making waves on social media. the justice department claims say -- burberry warning of a challenging first half after trench coats that they have week sales in the u.s. and china. it failed to bear fruit. forecasting sales below estimation. clothing has been hurt by inflation but cowboy hats and boots thanks to beyonce's country album.

coming up, the fitness business in the era of ozempic we will speak to bahram akradi from life time fitness that's coming up next here on bloomberg. ♪ book now. (aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo. i struggled with weight loss and weight gain my entire life. with all the yo-yo dieting i did in the past, i would lose 20, 30, 50 pounds just to gain them over and over again. in one year, i've lost five sizes, and i'm on my way to lose another three.

with golo, i can do it. (announcer) change your life at golo.com. that's golo.com. her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock.

so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

katie: on their cousin james are trying to adjust to shrinking whistling as more members of the glp-1 drugs. talk about how to profit from the pivot, we are talking to the chairman and ceo of lifetime, the athletics club with over 100 locations across the u.s. and canada. let's start there. it feels like we have been talking about how glp-1's have been disrupted almost every industry. i feel like the knee-jerk reaction was that it would be bad for gyms and athletic clubs because people are losing weight through medication. what has been the actual effect you have seen on your business? guest: as i have said repeatedly, we haven't seen a singular impact, anything. no slowdown in the demand. more of our clubs are experiencing the level of

traffic that we are working on ways to put them on the waitlist. we are not seeing any impact from that. furthermore, as i have mentioned repeatedly, this particular drug which is here to stay, i think there is enough muscle behind it , it actually does work for people to get them kick started in losing weight. but it doesn't suppress the appetite and, therefore, you lose muscle mass as well as your weight. in order to combat so you have a long-term benefit from this, you definitely need to fix that with weight-bearing exercise. so i believe this, again, is good for all health clubs across the country. it's not bad. in addition, companies like ours and other high-end groups who have the capability of bringing in the experts and provide these

services as well, it creates an additional opportunity. but there's definitely no detriment whatsoever. katie: so no impact, no detriment, no slowdown. first you lose weight, then you go back to the gym and rebuild the muscle you might have lost while taking the medication. have you brought that message to the masses? i mean, how do you advertise and try to capitalize on that? bahram: we only advertise when we need to advertise. our business is in such strength right now that we don't really spend any money on promotion or any advertising at all. the customer that dispense the kind of money on these drugs -- and obviously cares about their vanity and they have been means to spend the money on that, if they are doing that, they also seek professional advice for other types of services that would help them look good. lifetime provides all of those things. so, it actually is the

combination of what lifetime provides and what these drugs give the people that kickstart to come in. some of the people just feel uncomfortable going to a more modern, more high-end athletic country club if they feel sort of self-conscious about their weight. so this allows them to get that kickstart, then they absolutely need the professional help to make sure that they can maintain a healthy weight going forward. katie: so like you said, you advertise when you need to. and it sounds like you don't need to right now. you mentioned waitlist, for example, what does your average waitlist look like across the u.s. and canada, and how does that compare to past years? bahram: we basically have been in recovery mode since we were shut down and maintained shut down and restricted until april

of 222. so it is just about two years since other operators and others have had a clean slate to run our business the way that we want to. the health club business will take two to three years of ramping. it takes that long for you to ramp your clubs to that level that they give you the full benefit. so we have had to re-ramp all of our facilities in the last two to three years. we have readjusted the business over the past four years, we have thought about all the different things that would have to be done differently after this whole thing is settled down. we work for pope or five years ahead of it. we added significant amount of programming, we added training, pickleball, programs for the elderly. all of those things collectively has positioned lifetime on the high demand. therefore, we don't spend hardly any money in marketing or advertising.

less than 1.5% of our total revenue is spent on branding or marketing permit zero promotions. that has allowed certain clubs in our group to get to a level of traffic to give the customer the experience we want. we basically regulating how many more people can come in. and right now, frankly, we have but the team members in the club need to learn how to handle that, the process of people getting on the waitlist and then getting contacted to make sure they are treated correctly while they are on the waitlist and we can onboard them correctly.

all of that is just a function of rolling it out in all the facilities that are really experiencing the traffic levels to justify the waitlist. katie: against that backdrop of high demand, have you considered raising your prices? bahram: we have raised prices over the last four or five years. we are not into raising prices, and this can be misunderstood particularly by the business community, is to keep raising prices. that is not the right answer. if the right answer is to deliver the best experience for the customer. they love their experience. what we did do is offer significant more programming and bundled all of that into one price, easier for a customer to pay one subscription and to get all these extra benefits that they were before paying on the cart. all of those things, when you look at a price per visit over

the last five years, in lifetime, it has risen less than the installation. the members are using the club almost 1.5 times as much per month as they were using before. so they are seeing the value and because of that, hence the waitlist. katie: i want to take this composition to the lifetime. shares of lifetime are down about 27% over the past year. is that an overhang from covid, or at what is the market missing about the fundamentals of your business? bahram: most commonly what i hear is that ebitda has to be under 3. ours is on the path to be under 3 by the end of the year. we have come down from covid from 92 it will be just under 3

by the time of the year is over. we have a large amount of our stock held by myself and our private equity partners so actually that flute is pretty small. but yes, we are doing 200 million dollars more in ebitda in the last 12 months than it was last year, and of the stock is down 20%. it makes no sense. but you run the company for the good of the company. the company is strong. i am proud of my team. the company is growing phenomenally well. the stock price will take care of itself, it will just in time. katie: good place to leave it. really enjoyed this conversation with bob macready, lifetime's chairman and ceo. let's check markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: we have a rally on our hands. that cooler than expected cpi print a big sigh of relief in terms of the idea of persistent

higher-for-longer inflation, the sense that may be that will not be the case. we have the s&p. the nasdaq outperforming a bit more. the nasdaq is also higher against some relief that may be the fed will be able to cut at some point, or certainly not hike, reiterating the message from jay powell and a couple of weeks ago. as for the meme stocks, not so much the. russell 2000 higher, despite declines for gamestop and amc entertainment after two days following roaringkitty's maine suggesting he would perhaps get involved with the stock. we can see a bit of a pullback. to matt miller's point, look at gamestop. not so long ago it was a $10 stock, now it is a 34 dollars stock. yields are not helping out. this is pretty interesting, in the last 11 days, basically since the fed meeting, yields have come into, the 2-year yield

yearly down 30 basis points. a bit of a dip for today's cpi print. if these levels are breached, we could see yields go significant in the work. , on the other hand, if these lows hang in, we could see, from a technical standpoint, setting up for the case for the 2-year yield to go well above 5%. as a result, the s&p 500, we are looking at a range -- this chart we have looked at before, in the middle here is 5200. there is a range here and right now you can see the s&p 500 clearly trying to break out this new record high. the rsi not even overbought yet. so the momentum, the interest, the enthusiasm is a lot less than it was last december. that bearish divergence may lead to some interesting trading

ahead. katie: bloomberg's abigail doolittle, thank you so much. coming up, the future of m&a. will hear from the founder, chairman and ceo of pjt partners, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ partners, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

abigail: you are looking at a live shot of the fence this morning and figured something out, and interviewing with e.f.-4 president and ceo at 3:00 p.m. eastern and eight give. -- an 8:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ katie: time now for our daily will strictly conversation. sitting and looking at the potential come back in m&a. earlier, wall street week david westin spoke with paul taubman, pjt partners founder, and ceo about the landscape. she fish you have to look at this as -- i think you have to

look at this as a political and pre-covid. the reality is almost every market is healing and reaching higher highs other than the m&a market. we are seeing investment-grade debt issuance at record levels. it spreads as little as they have ever been. in a similar vein on the equity side, equity issuance is ahead of where it was pre-covid. all of the necessary conditions are in place. notwithstanding all of desire to transact and to get ahead of the changing economy, m&a volumes continue to be soft. >> so explore that other than part of that. what is m&a lagging behind other markets? >> a couple of things. one is the current view on antitrust is clearly having a chilling effect on some deals. we see many deals being contested. we are seeing the ftc and the doj being very vigilant.

antitrust enforcement, lots of second requests, elongated periods between announcements and closings. not just those deals that get reviewed, there is a self-editing process and we are seeing a lot of deals debated vigorously in boardrooms that never see the light of day because companies are not comfortable putting themselves through that extended review process. that is one of the big issues. i think the second one is private equity, which is such an engine of m&a activity. they have not been on the front legs of the way they were historically and i think a lot of that has to do with interest