and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

>> good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mckenzie in europe. a currentlying dollar bulldozes through asian fx. the fed's mayordalei says there's no rush to start cutting rates. china's g.d.p. growth beats expectations but retail sales and industrial output disappoints. a slowdown is underway. plus, israeli military officials say they have no choice but to respond to aaron's missile ask drone attack. this as the u.s. house will vote on aide for the ukraine and israel. crossing back below 3,100 for

u.s. stocks on stronger data for the u.s. u.s. retail rate coming in stronger. then there's the geopolitical overlay as well. further downside flagged by u.s. futures. s&p futures down by . 2%. setting for a shellacking across the european markets. looking to losses of 1.88%. down 102 points is what's been flagged. let's flip the board and look cross asset. the selloff as well as across treasures yesterday was pronounced. currently the 10-year benchmark at 460. the pound and focus today on the back of wage data that comes out. 1:4 on the pound.

it's more of a dollar story. the currentlying dollar again pressuring a number of currencies. brent at 90 dollars a barrel. geopolitical risks. the israelis said they will retaliate at a time of their choosing. the china story. we'll be looking at the miners as well. listed at 110 per owns on iron ore. let's go to asia and check in on the asia markets. vonnie quinn is standing by for a check on those as well as the middle east. vonnie? vonnie: you said it, tom. these are markets beset by woes. we're seeing it particularly in the currency space and in fixed income, as you mentioned. also, in equities, these are markets falling out of bed across the market. the yen, 154 is where we're at.

economists looking at the 1991 intervention level but we may get something before that. on the other hand, it may not matter if the b.o.j. or if monitor officials intervene if the fed can't cut yet. the korean yuan crossed the 1400 mark earlier. we're well below that now but still weaker versus the u.s. dollar. we do have a b.o.j. meeting in 10 days. the nikkei 2525 down 1.4%. it is really across the board from asia. i know you'll be speaking on china. let's look at middle east as well because geopolitical event and rhetoric obviously impacting these markets as well. the market was trading yesterday.

obviously we've been closed for hours now and haven't opened up for the tuesday session but the dow will reverse the previous day's declines at the end of of the session in saudi arabia. in israel, a reversal as well. lower midway through the session when we got hawkish rhetoric out of israel. one currency that is strengthening is the she canle and that's -- sheckle. just been .1% right now. tom? tom: vonnie quinn, thank you. right now, we know it's a big week for earnings. erickson coming through with what looks like a sizable beat. swedea corona, of 4 . 31 billion. the estimates had been for a

little over 2 billion so almost double the estimates for ericsson. the grows margin coming in at 42.% for the gross margin, adjusted for the first quarter. the estimates had been for just shy of 40% so a beat on the margin swellst as well. the expectations had been weaker demand. of course the customers for ericsson was weight on weaker profits. seems like that has not come to pass. now to china where the economy grew 5.3% in the year through the first quarter, beat expectations but the tailoff of industrial production and retail sales in march suggests more support may be needed to sustain that momentum. let's bring in our economist expert. talk about the good news in

these numbers. top line, growth beating the first quarter. >> the good news is factories so a lot of the growth in g.p. the first quarter was led by an increase in manufacturing and the sort of secondary sector. the chinese industry is divided into three sectors and it was the secondary one that really grew and that is all manufacturing and trade related so exports growing. aside from the industrial side, though, there's not much else good nice in the data we saw today. while economists kind of raised their estimates, we saw d.b.s. was the latest to raise their estimates on the back of g.d.p. growth. there's still a lot of concern about domestic consumption and being able to keep the same or similar economic growth throughout the year to reach what the government wants, which is around 5%, as they say. in terms of the negative side of things, look at the topline

figures. retail sales were lower than expected. home sales, home prices dipping down. nothing in sight that is potentially going to change that dynamic and without those two things, analysts warn that this is simply not sustainable. tom: you touched on the domestic consumption, the retail story. is there any sign than the be leaguered consumer in china that those things, that assumption, that optimism is turning around? katia: there are some signs that later in the year things could improve but there aren't a lot of details yet on it and what i'm referring to is the government's cash for clunkers program. what they're hoping is that consumers can bring in their old apines and -- alliance appliances and get them replaced with you? ones. that will be spurring

production. and some economists say that could add as much as.07 basis points to g.d.p. throughout the year. the only issue is we don't have a lot of details on how that will work, how it will be measured over time, how easy it will be to bring in. there was a press conference last week that dealt with that a bit more but it's still unclear on the details on how it will be worked out. in terms of the property market, that's going to really be the big one. in that regard i think the government is expected to come in with some more fiscal monitor support. that's the big question mark this year. tom: katia with a great breakdown of the china echo data. thank you very much. staying with china. the german chancellor scholz has

met with china president xi jinping. let's bring in bloomberg's oliver crook union joining us from -- joining us from ben berlin. what can you tell us about the conversation? >> scholz wanted to speak to xi jinping about the war in ukraine, and the green energy transition and on the question of ukraine there isn't so much distance, i think that scholz would hope to bet in president xi in terms of his stance there. he brought up a just peace with president when they went into the meeting. we haven't had yet the fruits of the meeting but the second is this question of trade. a trade question that is so important both to germany and china and china in a certain

sense took germany's space as the exporter to the world. in 2010 became the world's biggest exporter. and scholz saying that both germany and china are trading nations and they are committed to strengthen the rules-based system. also a comment from president xi saying longs the principles are of mutual respect, by lateral relations could continue in a stable and consistent way between germany and china. this is not really a big smiles and warm welcome sort of visit but one of mutual respect and understanding and that's the meeting two enthe two leaders. there was a moment of humor and when he was visiting shanghai at the university and obviously the news of legalization of cannabis made it from china to germany and he was asked by a student that if he came to study from

germany would he have to consume cannabis? he said no, you wouldn't. don't worry, i'm turning 6 this year and i have never done so. tom: we're not going to get cannabis trade between germany and china anytime soon but trade broadly contentious and the europeans have basically taken their gloves off, many would say finally, on this issue. how is that tying into the chancellor's visit? >> the questions on whether or not they're going to slap tariffs on. the chinese would argue, we have looked way ahead of time. we have a raw material policy that is decades ahead of european ones. we have access to the lithium and all the other minerals

required. the europeans are saying, no, this is down to unfair competition. there are a lot of subsidies. tax advantages, access to things the european companies don't have. and yesterday we had the scoop on medical device procurement so this gives you the idea that the e.u. is looking at all parts of this. this will invite a number of questions into europe. inflation reduction act one would say that is potentially have some of the same issues in terms of tax cuts. will the effort u. undertake that? also the question of europe's own competitiveness. the chinese would say we've just out-compete competed you and that is going to be the focus of the meeting later this week in brussels. how do you get europe to be more competitive? tom: ollie crook in berlin. thank you very much. a deep dive on that visit by the

german chancellor and what it could mean for how the europeans are thinking about trade. what you need to be looking ahead to for the rest of oat day. it's a big week in terms of inflation. that drops on wednesday. but 7:00 a.m. u.k. time, we'll get wages out of the u.k. and unemployment data. wages softening a little bit, which, of course, willing be welcomed by the bank of england. 7:00 p.m. u.k. time, bloomberg will be speaking to jeremy hunt. his reaction to the data. likely political questions as well for the chancellor. that's 7:10u.k. time. ericsson dropping at 6:00 a.m. u.k. time and we are switching focus to the luxury space later today. we're going to get lvmh sales as well so a key gauge on the

health of the luxury sector and follow that firm earnings news from goldman sachs. the of can others follow suit in terms of the pickup they see. the earnings story being fleshed out later today. you can get a round-up of the stories you knew need in today's edition of daybreak. get a deep dive there. coming up, israel vows to respond to iran's attack over the weekend. does the west call for restraint? we get the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. we're going to check oil is gold for you right now. the pricing action about the back of comments from israeli officials reiterating that they will, at some point at least respond, of course, to that unpressed -- unprecedented attack by iran over the weekend. gold medal up .2% so far. and the move in oil was less pronounced this time yesterday but we've seen the moves higher. above 90 dollars a barrel. when it comes to w.t.i., also moving higher. close to $8 a barrel.

the u.s. house set to vote separately on new aid to steal and ukraine this week following inn's missile and drone attack over the weekend. meanwhile, top u.s. israeli military officials responding that their country that is to no choice but to respond to the iran attack. ros, is the risk at this point of an israeli strike on iranian territory likely? >> it is likely. the u.s. and european countries are urging restability. saying you need to -- but they feel like they have to respond in some way to the first iranian attack on israeli soil.

what that looks like is very unclear. when it happens is very unclear. a wide range of possibilities from a direct attack, as you say from israel on iran. that would not be unprecedented but that's one option. targeting military sites, perhaps, even nuclear sites. there's concern about iran's nuclear program but -- or does it go for one of ryan's proxies in the region. hamas in hezbollah in lebanon. do they do something potentially even in the cyberspace? there are a lot of options from small ball responses to something that would risk potentially setting off a further tit for tat from iran. ask that is the concern from the u.s. and others. do we get this back and forth with strikes constantly between israel and iran?

tom: what the u.s. does not want to see so where does that leave the position of the biden presidency and those in washington, d.c.? >> it leaves them in a really awkward position because, of course, the u.s. is a key ally of israel militarily, economically and you name it. in terms of responding against iran. but it can only go so far. there's a deep, deep sense of unease that's going on in the u.s. about the possibility of a wilder conflict. they need to support israel on the one hand and also the concern about a wilder conflict. if that happens, you hit things like oil, supplies is commodities but you risk pull the u.s. in increasingly on that conflict and something that no one wants in the u.s.

israel is saying we're going to do what we need to do in this minute. tom: how is all of this playing into the debate domestically, at least in the u.s. around support for both israel and ukraine. we're hearing reports that the house may move on something by the end of this week. how likely is that at this point? >> there does seem to be momentum to push between those separate bills. the speaker is trying to separate out the aid for ukraine and the aid for israel because they're there's possibly more support for sending aid to israel as well. of course, the ukraine has been bumped down for months now in congress and there's a real sense of fatigue on the part of the u.s. about continuing to supply ukraine with that aid. they're trying to separate things out. it does seem politically there's

more support for steal in this minute and especially to be able to defend themselves against iran. i would say that would get through easier than the aid for ukraine. tom: ros, thank you very much. coming up, we're going to switch focus because over in parts of africa, a severe drought gripping at least parts of southern africa. zimbabwe considering importing corn from brazil if for the first time in 10 years. we bring you the details of that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to broom berg daybreak europe. let's turn our focus to the severe drought in part of southern africa. zimbabwe is considering

importing corn from brazil for the first time since 2013. -- 2014. due to the el nino weather pattern. let's bring in ondiro. corn, a stay the stable food across this region. what impact is being felt? >> it's estimatedded that 20 million people are in dire need of humanitarian assistance and they say the rainfall patterns between january and march are the worst in 41 years. february was the driest month and nearly 80% of the country did not get adequate rainfall. ale churl supply was hampered. corn supply reduced by 20% in south africa and 60% in zimbabwe and their president had a

nationally televised address to tell them what it will take to offset this loss. so what this just means is that these three countries that have declared a state of national emerge, otherwise are self-sufficient first quarter countries and in speaks to the effects of climate change. tom: what options are they considering to offset this channel? >> they will will be heading to saw paolo, brazil to try and get some grain but this is just a drop in the bucket of what the country consumes. the good news is because of the drought from quarter 2024 to quarter five of 2025, it will have an impact on inflation

because of the prices of importing. tom: maybe brazil can offset some of the pressure across zimbabwe and other nation presidents. thank you. coming up, another big week for u.s. bank earnings with goldman sachs closing higher after posting a profit jump. j.p. morgan and morgan stanley still to come. we look ahead at that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: a staging dollar bulldozers through effects. the stocks to get big hit following a big tech selloff. mary daly says there was no rush to start cutting rates. china's first quarter gdp growth beats expectations, but retail sales and industrial outlook disappoint in march. suggesting the slowdown is already underway. thus, israeli military officials say they have no choice but to respond to iran's missile drone attack. this is the u.s. prepares to vote on new aid to israel and ukraine. let's check markets on a down day. in terms of the future, lower across europe and the u.s. down day. yesterday announced big tech with headline selling off, the s&p closing up by 1.2%. back below that 5100 level one

stronger u.s. data reinforcing those higher for longer rate expectations. the geopolitical overlay continues to be there as well. european futures pointing lower by 1%, a little over 1% looking at a drop of 55 point so far. ftse 100 is looking lower by 1%, looking to drop around 80 points. ftse 100 pointing to 7899. s&p futures lower by a 10th of a percent. nasdaq futures are flat. the early downside is still pointing to further losses to build on the picture of yesterday. let's flip the port cross assay. we saw selloff across treasuries with a two-year getting close to 5%. 4.6 currently on the u.s. benchmark right now. we talked about dollar strength in the headlines. we will in fact that story. the pound and focus, 124. pressure coming through. what's happening was stronger dollar, down a 10th of a percent on the pound.

we look for that data on wages and jobs, 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. brent, about $90 per hour. up. $110 currently in down 1.2%. arguably you could trump -- you could tie that to the mix data out of china. let's talk effects story and bring in mark from bloomberg mliv. the strategist there. talk to us about the dollar strength coming through. is this a risk haven move into the dollar is this on the back of stronger data and expectation that rates are not going to be cut? mark: all of the above. the dollar was already strong coming into asia this morning, as you say, we've had pushback from the fed reserve speaker. it will take longer for them to lower interest rates. retail sales was the latest in the series of strong data print from the united states. so we came in this morning with dollar-yen especially, very

strong about 154. that just lifted dollar asian markets across the board. and china's fixed income allow the yuan to weaken. that was just the icing on the cake. off the back of that, we could see the indian rupee, thai baht, they've all been tumbling one after the other in australian dollar kiwi coming down as well. just really being across the board, that also with equity markets, they are nervous after a rough night from wall street last night. you will see it across asian equities. there is just one thing feeding into another. of course we've got bank of japan meeting next week, which is now becoming a lot more interesting than it was just a few days ago. governor ueda from the bank of japan has said that the yen feeds into inflationary expectations and japan. that was not something said by previous boj governors, the yen is on his radar.

the minister of finance has been quiet today, hasn't said too much about it. maybe there is a pat coming up between the two of them. traders are not being bought off. some talking about 160 in dollar-yen. one thing for sure. foreign exchange markets are alive and kicking, and that's where the action is today. tom: they certainly are. on the story of the yen, is it the expectation -- you touched on the view of getting to 160, some say 170. is this you simply that the intervention will not work at this point? market: they have a bit of a problem. it's not to say the intervention wouldn't work, but it's how far would he go because the big difference, october 9, 2022 was the last time the japanese successfully intervened to strengthen the yen. they had it in their favor at that time. they caught the market by surprise, but more importantly, u.s. yields were coming down at the same time. so you had a negative impact

from the u.s. side, and you had the japanese side improving as well. so you put the two together, it helped dollar-yen come down quite a long way. if the japanese authorities do decide to support the end, they are completely on their own because we have seen in recent days that the fed is pushing further and further away in terms of lowering interest rates. there's no help from the u.s. side at all. the help of coordinated intervention is certainly off the table. if the japanese got hit, it would have to intervene large. it may get strength out of the yen, but probably not as much as they got two years ago. tom: 150 foreign u.s. dollar-yen right now. mark cranfield, deep dive on what's ripping across these effects markets. mliv's mark cranfield with the analysis. thank you. to the bank earning story and in terms of the earnings picture continues. bank of america and morgan stanley due to report later after shares have closed higher

after they posted a surprise profit jump in the first quarter. quakes very good about our first quarter results, which reflect the strength of our interconnected franchises in the earnings power of our firm. this performance was aided by the swift actions we took last year to narrow our strategic focus and play to our core strength. tom: let's bring in bloomberg charlie wells for the analysis. how did goldman sachs manage to come through with a solid b? what were the drivers for goldman? >> the driver was a return to basics. we heard david solomon talk about a swift action and how they made this turnaround from trying to push into retail banking. last year really was an execution year for the bank and we saw them go back into poor. -- core. when you look at core units it's hard not to find an area that you beat. they beat revenue. it was $4 billion.

. got m&a fees, $1 billion i staby environment, bringing in revenue of $4 billion, almost. tom: morgan stanley reporting, obviously a close rival for goldman sachs. i'm wondering if they can replicate the results. what will you and the team be scrutinizing from that? quakes difficult news cycle for morgan stanley. they have been talking about pressure from their wealth management unit. he has called wealth management the engine of morgan stanley, but has been under pressure with inflows, profit margins, so that will be really interesting to watch today. the expectation for bank of america is that it looks similar to wells fargo or jp morgan, who reported disappointing earnings last week, in particular, on net interest income. that's coming under pressure as consumers seek to get more on their deposits. there's more competition in the

deposit state -- space. potentially bank of america having to pay more to keep those deposits. tom: we are coming to the last leg of the earnings season when it comes to the u.s. what are the takeaways for you? quakes the message we get from these banks is a return to the old normal. the old normal wear net interest income wasn't getting this huge boost that it was getting from rates. a return to the old normal at the likes of goldman sachs will -- where they will focus on core. a return to the very old normal for consumers, say were thinking about maybe the 1990's when consumers were very used to competition for where they want to put their deposits for competition over rates. that's a return to an old normal, which we could see as we hear inklings of the federal reserve may not be cutting rates as much as markets had priced in earlier this year. tom: looking ahead to bank of america and morgan stanley, what

to watch for later. a touch from the fed, new york fed president john williams believing that the u.s. central bank will likely start cutting rates later this year if inflation continues to gradually ease. he also discussed resilience in consumer spending and the exclusive conversation with bloomberg tv. quakes consumer spending has been strong. it's driven by strong sentimental's. we have seen real wage gains. we are in a stronger economy with good growth. it's part of that story, but i think what we are realizing is, we are getting a nice tailwind from the supply side of the economy, good labor force growth, strong productivity. so with that, i think consumers are spending. quakes was the thinking in your office of does this last year is this a surprise that you think you go away at any minute? quakes one thing that makes it hard to forecast is we are still

feeling the aftereffects of the pandemic and russia's war in ukraine and all the things happening in between. so we still see an adjustment process by the consumer, in the economy overall. but overall i think that the economy will continue to grow at a solid great. probably not as high as the 3.1% was last year, something like 2% or around that. i feel like we are still in a good place. probably not as rapid growth as we saw last time. quakes you have strong growth, very low unemployment, why cut rates if the economy is doing fine at this level? >> i think monetary policy is working at the rates we have now. i think monetary policy is in a good place over the past 12 to 18 months. we have seen pre-match all the measures of imbalances in limit -- in the labor market and the economy see many levels that we've seen in 2018 and 2019. we are seeing restoring balance.

we are seeing a slow decline in inflation. i do think monetary policy right now is in a good place. i'm not fixated on where do rates need to go. but i'm focused on is, how do we best achieve our maximum -- maximum price stability grow? the economy is strong, labor markets are, at the same time we are getting better balance and seeing some decline overall inflation. for me, it's about getting that right and then whatever we need to do to address monetary policy, we can do to best continue the progress towards our goals. so, that's how i'm thinking about it and we just have to keep watching the data and the decisions based on those goals. quakes as your base case that you will cut rates this year? quakes my own view is that with inflation continuing to come down, i guess i would say gradually is the operative word. and with the economy remaining strong, i think given where the level of rates are, real

interest rates are now considerably higher than they were before because inflation has come down quite a bit. so we will need to start a process to bring interest rates back to normal levels. my own view is that that process will likely be started this year. but again, it will be driven by the data and achieving our goals. tom: new york fed president john williams speaking to bloomberg exclusively. our next guest is fintech is back. u.k.'s most funded startup sector. we discussed the future with aaron platts, ceo of hsbc, innovation banking u.k. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back, fintech is back on top is u.k.'s most funded startup sector according

to analysis from hsbc innovation banking and m&a database deal room. 1.4 billion dollars was raised across 73 rounds in the first quarter. for the details, let's bring in the ceo of hsbc innovation banking, u.k.. we love speaking to you because you have your finger on the pulse in terms of the flows into u.k. tech. talk about what you have seen on a granular basis. quakes q1 is a stable, strong start. that re-calibrates us back to 2020, pre--- pre-covid. that still leaves us firmly as number one in terms of the european ecosystem. 3.9 is almost more than france and germany combined in q1. firmly period globally as an innovation ecosystem. tom: fintech standing out again. what is the appeal, what is drawing the funds into that particular segment of u.k. tech?

quakes 2023 was the year of genai and climate tech. it is nice to see fintech back on top. london and the u.k. very much is a hub of financial services. various types of asset managers, insurance companies, also the procurement of investment into fintech just creates a lot of amazing companies, and that's what is attracting both the mastic and international from coming into fintech. tom: you talk about genai and some concerns, some handling it by the end of last year that it was looking a little frothy. what are you seeing? was there a frothiness to it? was it becoming rational is fun flows were continuing? how was the picture? quakes deep tech, semiconductors, quantum, is still seeing a strong amount of investment. we still see a pretty

substantial evaluation. but this is a paradigm shift for our industry. so i think we will continue to see a lot of money going into genai. i think the u.k. is well-placed in terms of talent. it's nice to see microsoft announcing a hub in london with respect to some of their development. i would continue to expect genai to outperform in terms of attracting capital, how frothy is it, time will tell. tom: what is the global nature of the fun flows into the u.k.? quakes this was the surprising part of the report for me. we have always attracted huge amounts of international capital. it's always important to have that. i looked at the data over the last 15 years and what we ended up finding was the proportion of domestic capital going into the u.k. is quietly decreasing. q1 had almost 40% of money going into u.k. startups that came

from the u.s. which is the highest we've seen in terms of the data that i've been tracking for 15 years. for me, it's something to keep an eye on. we really want that u.s. experience capital and international capital in the u.k. but we also want to see the funds thrive. tom: in terms of stages of funding, early-stage versus late stage, talk about ai. i was interviewing the ceo yesterday, focused on ai. take a listen to what he had to say in terms of late stage funding and the challenges here in the u.k.. quakes one of the biggest challenges in the u.k. is we have all of this fantastic talent here and yet we don't have a microsoft, we don't have a google, and why is that? it's almost institutionalized now that startups in the u.k. and up opening a presence in the u.s. that are moving there for that scaling capital. i think that's one of the

challenges and if the government will address anything, it needs to address that gap. tom: is that a valid concern, talking about the fact that there's always default that they will go to late stage funding to the u.s.. if it is valid, what other prescriptions that the government and others might look too? rex i think we should break it down to access to public r access to private capital. we've seen a huge amount of growth in terms of that growth capital from a private markets perspective be available in the u.k. the source of that capital is international but i think he's right and the data does support most companies in the innovation space that will look to the u.s. to list. this if you think structurally that we need to continue to work on as an ecosystem. the conversation around the reform. unlocking pension capital to be deployed into both public and private markets will very much help. i think this is a point in time, i've been in this ecosystem for 17 years, and the size and scale

back 17 years ago versus where we are here is night and day. i'm pretty optimistic that we will have, over time, a really robust public market for innovation companies, i'm just not sure that's really going to change in 2024. tom: it seems like a longer-term issue and clearly the government has got this in its sights but whether or not something is being done quickly enough is the question. as you and the team look ahead to second quarter and beyond this year, what is the focus on? >> i believe that the u.k. ecosystem should be a $20 billion market. there's enough amazing companies, great founders, great technology, early stages been robust. we will need to see and unlocking the second half of the year to hit the runway. i'm still optimistic that things around interest rate reductions, if it happens, itself or. suspension money is tied down.

the anecdotal activity we see from our partners is there's lots of velocity with respect to term sheets. we will see if that converts into investments but there's enough quality. tom: always smart on the tech space wringing us the analysis. the ceo of hsbc innovation banking u.k. for some other stories making the news, with an eye still on the tech space. the chief of google's business as the company will spend more than 100 million dollars developing ai technology, another sign of the investing arms race that is whipping silicon valley. meanwhile, donald trump's first criminal trial got off to a slow start with installing over disagreements about evidence of last-minute arguments. jury selection did not kick off until the final hours of the day as the lawyers argued with prosecutors over which evidence will be admissible. more than half of the first panel of 96 potential jurors had to be excused after saying they

cannot be impartial. we will show you the data out of the u.k. what it means for the boe. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. happy tuesday. data dropping 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. a little over five minutes time on wages and the jobs picture here in the u.k. inflation drops on wednesday. rounding out the picture in terms of what we can think about when it comes to the boe's next steps. we know that the services component of cpi in the u.k. has been relatively sticky. a lot of that is down to the wages story. there is an expectation wage data will come and softer. the white line is the weekly earnings three-month by three-month. you can see that just a little

below six right now. services cpi remaining elevated in terms of being above six. as the wages continue to keep the services part higher, you need to see, arguably, a breakdown of the wages within services to see that component come in the boe take a little bit more comfort. let's put the board and see what it means when it comes to the jobs picture. it's a big confusion -- confusing given we are working through a new statistical format and the surveys have been challenged. the labor force surveys up and coming through. there's this cap, in terms of the blue line on the white line between the labor force survey, unemployment rate and the experimental data. that's between 4.2% in terms of unemployment or 3.9%. where are we in reality remains a question. in terms of the unemployment data, it remains confusing here in the u.k. as they work through those changes. what this means for the boe, as i said, cpi and inflation print that comes through wednesday will be worn. let's have a look at how we've

adjusted. expectations of two cuts and to any five basis points. compared to just a little over one for the fed but still on three for the ecb. that's how the three major central banks here are lining up. the boe as expectations of two. the data today will help inform whether or not that is reality or realistic, i should say. speaking to the u.k.'s chancellor, jeremy hunt. joining us seven 10:00 p.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

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guy: good morning from london. this is bloomberg markets today. i'm guy johnson with kriti gupta, who's in brussels this morning. anna is out today. we are less than an hour away from trading. it will be a busy morning. the dollar is soarin