than expected u.s. inflation strengthens the case for the fed delaying rate cuts. global debt suffering it's worth -- worst up -- drop in 14 months. consumer prices in china stalling while deflation extends its slump, underscoring a threat to the economic recovery. the u.s. and japan unveil plans for deeper security ties as president biden hosts a state dinner for the prime minister of japan. let's start off with the markets. there's plenty going on. let's start with the data of the day. this is the number that moved everything. uscp i rising 4/10 of 1%, topping estimates for third month in a row. as for the june rate cut, the consensus seems to be, forget that. goleman says it sees to down. never mind. there's a presidential election then. let's wait and see what happens there. larry summers thinks the next

move of the fed could be to tighten. all bets are off. we had the reverse situation in china as well. cpi for the month of march, 1/10 of 1%. ppi contracting for 18 months and around now. take a look at that board. the reaction is profound really with the big movements and yields. yields rising in some cases. the u.s. two-year knocking on the door of 5% right now. japan 10 year at its highest since november. big move and exit -- fx at well -- as well. so that's now the new threshold for intervention from the ministry of finance. we heard from the currency diplomat earlier saying he's not ruling out any options so the currency chiefs in japan trying to drop on. no action is yet.

oil going up. we will get to that more in a moment. geopolitical tensions pushing that higher as well. let's bring in garfield reynolds. let's start with you. let's talk about the bond market reaction from the hotter than expected cpi print. where do we go from here? garfield: we should consolidate for them -- for a while. biggest 10 year yield jumped since september 2022 actually. a long time. two-year knocking on the door of 5%. these are the levels that have brought investors back in, willing to take the yield and sit on it if need be because it's high enough. we might see some of that. unless investors will be unwilling until ppi is out of the way. normally ppi doesn't get too

much interest in the u.s.. but if you recall last time around, that wasn't the case. that could turn off a fresh lake and we could get a test of that 5% for two-year yields. paul: inflation in the u.s.. deflationary pressures remaining very sticky in china as well. tell us about that sharper than excited pullback that we saw in march cpi. >> the big takeaway is that deflationary pressures are still very much a real threat in china. this just tells us the bump up that we saw in february really seems to be transitory and it's due to the holiday that we had back then. in march, a lot of the pullback in some of these numbers was pretty broad-based. we saw a steeper drop in food inflation prices.

so that basket driving down the headline number. 0.1% year on year. also, we saw some gains in core cpi. this is telling us that there is a lot of pressure and domestic demand in china. we are not seeing the kind of optics that you would want to, indicating that there's been a big recovery there. this spells additional trouble for the consumer recovery in china this year. this is still very much a lopsided recovery. big gains in industrials. some gains in exports through the first bit of the year that we've had so far. on the domestic side, a lot of issues there. paul: this is a problem that's not going away for policymakers. what does it mean for the pboc? >> well, at this point perhaps the pboc takes additional measures like cutting policy rates. they still have the ability to do so to try to boost domestic demand. the issue when it comes to the

pboc is that, off the back of the u.s. cpi print, if the fed ends up delaying the timing on its rate cuts past june into the back half of the year in the pboc goes ahead and cuts rates as soon as next quarter or even this quarter, you are creating an even larger gap of spending between what u.s. policy looks like and what the pboc, china policy looks like. that could spell trouble on capital outflows from china. the pboc has to keep that calculation and play as they consider additional measures to take this year. maybe there's other ways in which they can keep liquidity healthy and china. maybe they reduce the reserve requirement ratios for major banks. but it may happen to be that at least in china, we will see more fiscal policy support this year, trying to shore up domestic demand figures to get consumers spending again.

paul: so we talked about bonds but of course the trend extends further than that. how have other asset classes been doing? garfield: equities have been under some pressure. after all, u.s. stocks fell. they are having to observe the idea. for u.s. equities, the concern was not getting three rate cuts but more that we even more moves towards pricing less than two and there are plenty of doubts that you would get any cuts at all this year. some saying, maybe you should hike. that's obviously causing recalculations. the bigger hit the has been on the currency front. u.s. dollar roared ahead a lot of -- against a lot of currencies. it was very interesting to see how important the central bank set up for that is. a lot of attention was on the

yen as a crash through 152 and touch when 53. it actually moved down at a slower pace than currencies like the australian dollar and the new zealand dollar. that's because they are risk exposed. it's also because their central banks are not seen as having any capacity to raise rates. they are seen as having the potential to lower rates this year. in that set up, that makes them vulnerable. that brings us to one of the big questions hanging over the currency front. what does the ecb do when it meets today? that's not expected to change policy. what it signals about policy going forward could be key for the next leg up in the u.s. dollar. if lagarde and the board open the door or keep the door open to the expectation that the ecb will cut three times this year and we have the fed may be cutting just once, that should

undermine the euro. although it could also cause volatility because there are some who argue that rate cuts are appropriate for europe in a way that they are not appropriate for the u.s.. in fact, rate cuts would stimulate the u.s. economy and be good news for the euro. a very muddled picture. volatility is the one thing i can promise you across assets. paul: it's been an action-packed day in asia. garfield reynolds leads our markets live asia coverage and news desk editor joe thesis there. let's get to our first guest, chief investment advisor at bnp paribas. out of the gate, i have to ask you if you have recalculated your expectations when it comes to the fed? when is the first rate cut going to happen? are we going to get a bit less than we were expecting? >> yeah. of course. yesterday's harder than expected u.s. cpi challenged the view of

our base case that we were going to see three cups this year. the view for now is that we will see less cuts. it's all about data dependent. but i think we also have to note that for the fomc minutes, also released yesterday, actually most of the participants agree to have less restrictive rates. of course, they need some thing for them to initiate the rate cuts. obviously what happened yesterday with the march cpi, they probably also challenge the confidence. so we think there could be some delays in terms of the timing for the rate cut. we originally thought june, starting from july or later.

also in terms of the numbers of rate cuts, we think there's potential to be a last rate cut this year. grace: that's an important point you make -- paul: that's an important point you make in terms of those fomc meetings predating the print we got today. in terms of how you approach markets, we've seen significant pullback on the equity markets particularly. do you visa -- view this as a buying opportunity? >> yeah. especially when we look at inflation expectations, even with the recent rise in oil prices, gold prices, commodity prices, the inflation expectations are actually pretty steady. i think we still have some months to go to monitor the inflation numbers. not only the cpi but also the fed closely watching the pce data. so we think for now, the market

has been repricing. equities corrections. i think actually, we still provide a very good opportunity to go into the market. paul: i want to talk about the other big inflation print that we got today out of china where it's the opposite story. 1/10 of 1%. that's really tepid numbers for cpi in march. 18 months in a row now of contraction. do you expect -- we've been asking this for a while now. when are policymakers going to take this by the throat? you expect more strident policy action out of china? grace: if we could remember for the mpc, the government actually said the cpi at 3%. essentially the authorities aim to have inflation, not

deflation. i think especially with the lower inflation numbers or the concerns over deflation, i think that could mean they are going to do a little bit more. especially, they still have room to do monetary easing. could be lower rrr, lower interest rate. also what we've been seeing actually on the fiscal side, is not like big stimulus obviously. they are still doing a targeted easing. paul: yeah. they seem to be sticking to the playbook. similar question. chinese equities, chinese assets reasonably be -- priced at the moments. what is your allocation to china at the moment? grace: yeah. i think for now, we are pretty

much neutral. especially for near term. obviously, long-term could be more positive. for now, valuations are very low. obviously valuations could not be the catalyst. but it could mean that a lot of the negative news already priced in. also given sentiments so low. i think the market could be easily surprised, especially recently what we've been seeing for some of the economic numbers like pmi or even the first quarter, a lot of the numbers beat expectations. i think we will need to look at the economic data going forward. slightly on the better side. so i think for now, it looks

like it is still a rage bound trading market. the downside actually has been supported. also, it would mean catalysts for sustained rally. we don't see the catalyst right now. paul: all right. she will be sticking with us. we will talk about central banks, foreign-exchange when we return. still to come this hour on that subject, yen intervention. risks are growing after the japanese currency past the 153 mark on the hot inflation data out of the u.s.. we will take a closer look at currency markets shortly. the philippine president arrives in washington for his trilateral meeting with japan and the united states. we take a look at their agenda in china's reaction, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's take a look at how currency markets are doing. we saw a big jump in u.s. dollar strength off the back of hotter than expected cpi numbers out of the u.s.. perhaps the currency getting thrashed the most was the yen.

it's 15283 at the moment. we've heard some more tough talk from japan's currency diplomat saying he's not ruling out any options and the success of asset -- fx moves are bad for the economy. so far, a lot of talk but no action from the ministry of finance in japan. the aussie dollar recovered a little bit after suffering a bit earlier on. 6719 at the moment. take a look at the yuan. reference rate fix coming a little bit stronger than yesterday. the question reminds whether policymakers are committed to defending the one at the moment. pretty decent rise on the bloomberg dollar spot index. let's get back to grace 10 now. thanks for staying with us. as i mentioned, we did hear some more jawboning today.

at what point is the ministry of finance going to stop talking and start acting? >> yeah. i think actually, i mean given the interest rate differentials we've been seeing more pressure especially on the yen. despite, they already started to hike interest rates. even i think what happened recently in the market, especially with the potential delay, then they may talk about pushing earlier in terms of the mixed rate hike by the boj. for now, our expectation is the next small hike could happen in september. especially in terms of the yen continuing to weekend. there may be a chance that they

push to summer. we see the second small hike in japan. paul: so the bank of japan certainly taking this slowly. on the intervention side, do you feel it is effective? is it worthwhile? particularly when you are fighting against forces like u.s. cpi and the fed constantly moving the goalpost in terms of its rate policy. grace: yeah. you are right. especially the interest rate differentials. that's the driving force of the weaker yen. so i think for now, they are trying to talk. in terms of real extensions, we are not sure. i think markets are clearly skeptical about whether they do

interventions. whether they could have more long-lasting events or whether it is short-lived and we raise the intervention. i think at the end of the day, it's whether they can have a smaller or narrower cap in terms of the interest rate differentials. but actually lights on whether the boj would have their next move pretty soon. paul: we have another central bank meeting happening today, later on when europe wakes up. do you expect the plan to have changed at all for the ecb after what we heard out of the u.s. today? grace: yeah. i think it also depends on the inflation numbers. especially the ecb forecast in terms of the inflation path. for now, it looks like the inflation in europe is still on

the inflation trend. so they have room to maybe start cutting rates. in our base case is starting from june, three cups this year. i think even for the u.s., there may be some change in plan. for europe, especially in terms of the european economies, we've been seeing a turnaround in the economic momentum. especially for the inflation continuing that will give them room to start cutting rates from june. paul: one of the questions we are asking a lot of guests today is what do you hear the -- see the euro hitting next? grace: yeah. i think it also depends. the dollar. obviously, we've been seeing some strength in the dollar and then the euro could be

weakening. also, if the ecb has a more dovish tone, that could actually drive the euro slightly weaker. paul: all right. thank you so much for joining us. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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in sales to almost $19 billion in the first quarter, above analyst estimates. the main chipmaker nvidia and apple expect revenue to grow at least another 20% this year. the global ai boom has seen taiwan export surging by the fastest pace in two years. bloomberg has learned that bytedance saw a 60% jump in profit in 2023. sources say the company grew to more than $40 billion from about 25 billion the prior year. that growth is ahead of its chinese online peers, a sign of the tiktok owners resilience in the face of an economic downturn. let's take a look at some of the stocks that are moving in the asia-pacific at the moment. we were talking about deflation in china earlier. the economy has a severe ailment in terms of a property problem. weaker by 3.3%. this is after s&p downgraded china's rating to junk.

that's an epping tide that sinks all boats. most of those china property stocks on the board there going backwards today. one bright spot in the market today, energy. for reasons that are not particularly fabulous. the oil price rising as tension continues to escalate in the middle east. brent knocking on the door of $91 per barrel. if you take a look at the msci asia-pacific, energy stocks doing their best today. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: welcome back to get you are watching bloomberg markets: asia. japan is about to come back from lunch. let's take a look at how the nikkei was doing. much like many other markets.

a few declines today. perhaps not surprising after that harder than expected cpi print that we had out of the united states. the nikkei off by about half of 1%. the japanese 10 year is an interesting one. we saw that rise the highest it's been since november. the yen though, that's the biggest talking point of the day when it comes to foreign exchange. now still looking pretty weak. for more on that, let's get over to our japan economy and government editor paul jackson. we were previously looking at 152. his 153 the new 152? paul j.: well, i don't exactly see it that way. as you know, the currency officials cannot be seen to be protecting a certain level. that would go against international agreements on

allowing markets to determine exchange rates. so they need a sharp move. judging by the last three interventions by japan, we saw two yen movements within a space of 24 hours. before they moved in. if you applied that kind of back of an envelope logic, we would need to see the yen getting to 153.71 today for intervention. we are a ways off. i think the language from the officials this morning has been just about enough to tamp down the excitement for now, as they continue to play this waiting game. waiting for the fed. that weight looks like it's just become a bit longer. paul: yeah.

it's interesting that you used the word game here. it's a difficult situation for the ministry of finance officials. once they stop targeting and started action -- acting, they lost benefit from talking anymore. this is the case of, once you intervene, that's one and done? paul j.: as we saw in 2022, they had to intervene three times before the tide turned. they want to minimize the number of times they go in, if indeed they have to go in at all. i think one interesting thing from the language used by officials this morning is they avoided using the word old to describe their action. that's like the absolute flashing red light alert that intervention as possible. i think they are going to play the waiting game a little bit longer. if anyone ever doubted that a

0.1 percentage point in u.s. data could move markets, i think last night showed that it certainly can. paul: the ripples of that stone thrown in the pond felt far and wide. is there a role for the boj as well? if we see another incremental step towards raising rates down the track from the boj, what would that do to stabilize the end? -- yen? paul j.: if investors can see that the bank of japan is on track to continue raising interest rates and to go in the direction of normalization, that could help the dynamics a little bit. i think a lot of ministry officials expected that the first rate hike since 2007 last month would already help those dynamics. but what we see in the market is clearly, we need more. i think the main conclusion we have to draw from what's happened in the last 24 hours is

really, it's all about the fed. paul: yeah. it sure is. paul jackson there talking about some of those movements we've seen in the yen today. tensions with china are set to dominate thursday's summit between the japanese-american and philippine leaders. so i want to start with you, what are we expecting to see from this trilateral summit? >> i think the center of it all would be tensions with china. given the continuing tensions between the philippines and chinese ships in the south china sea, where you see some chinese ships deploying water cannons toward philippine boats, there should be some discussion in

terms of the three countries, the three leaders agreeing to cooperate in terms of maritime security and fostering freedom of navigation within the south china sea. paul: so i want to talk to you about what japan is looking to get from this meeting. jon: i think that japan is trying to build alliances with southeast nations. one thing that's been a part of the administration is to reach out to places that would be affiliated with the u.s. and make direct contact for things like the coast guard and navy patrols. the word going into kishida's visit to the u.s. was lattice. there would be direct u.s. connections and other things interwoven. this is part of what to get biden -- what the biden ministration wants to see. they want to see partners like japan reach out to the philippines to have their own connection in greater groupings.

it takes a look at what washington sees as beijing's assertiveness in places like the south china sea. paul: so apart from the south china sea, do we see any other areas of cooperation for the three nations apart from boosting maritime security? manolo: you should see the nations boosting their economic ties. during this particular summit, there should be discussions on boosting cooperation in terms of critical infrastructure, semiconductors, renewable energy as well as critical minerals. it's also a way for the philippines to have the philippines boost it cap -- it's economic resilience in the face of what could in the future be repercussions of it standing up to china. china still up top trading partner. it helps diversify its trading

partners and the way it does business with the world, in case something untoward with china comes up in the future. paul: i want to talk a little bit about what's going on in the white house tonight. the white house held the state dinner. the u.s. is said to be opening an antitrust probe into nippon steeles takeover of u.s. steel. how could that affect a geisha and -- investigation affect the u.s. trip? jon: the acquisition is something that is a trip. for japan, it's a straightforward business acquisition. on the u.s. and, political aspects are overwhelming. especially with a state like pennsylvania where u.s. steel is such a strong presence. this is a swing state.

these are union jobs. biden needs the stake -- state to take the presidential election. he's been an advocate for the u.s. labor movement. so it is something that has clouded the discussions with the antitrust movement. it makes it more difficult to sort through. there's been a lot of back-and-forth. there have been agreements that have benefited both countries. there's been a lot of cooperation and friction. it's a multifaceted relationship and a deep relationship between the u.s. and japan. u.s. steel and nippon steel, the acquisition of that fits into this. it's one of many dynamics that are going on but it's a really big one for this leader. paul: one area of greater alignment, announcing efforts to improve collaboration in tech and artificial intelligence. what are the applications here?

what are we reading into this? jon: it works for japan to revitalize the chip industry at home. there's an ai joint project that was announced as part of this visit. we are getting some investments from major players into japan. this is something that is helping to build the domestic chip industry. it helps the u.s. and japan work on ai initiatives together. it brings companies together's on both sides. it's a way for the private sector to work with the public sector to deepen the alliance. so friction with u.s. steel and nippon steel and points of agreement on this a ideal. -- ai deal. paul: another interesting topic to do with the philippines and china. this is something -- he struck a deal that bars manila from shipping construction materials

to a military outpost in the south china sea. marcos saying he's horrified by that. can you tell us more about the details of that agreement and whether or not it's going to stand? manolo: marcos made these comments before he flew out of manila. yesterday. basically he is saying, up until now there's no record or documentation of this gentlemen's agreement between the former president and the chinese government. basically burying manila from sending over construction materials to a military outpost. basically a world war ii era ship. marcos is saying to do that. if that's true, it is surrendering sovereignty.

it is something that the government is not about to do. right now, his government is reaching out to former government officials. not the president, not the x leader himself. until now, they haven't gotten a straight answer as of yet. paul: all rail -- all right. thank you so much for joining us there. brent crude prices spiked with the u.s. and its allies set to believe major strikes by aronowitz proxies against israel could happen within days. let's get more on this from bruce einhorn. what do we know about this possible imminent attack? bruce: yes. what officials say is that it's a question of when, not if there will be an iranian attack,

possibly using high precision missiles toward israel. the israeli government believes that the attacks would target civilian -- not civilian, government or military targets. this would be in retaliation for an attack that iran has blamed on israel at its diplomatic compound in damascus last week. just yesterday, iran's supreme leader vowed once again that iran would attack israel in retaliation for saying that the attack last week in damascus was an attack on iran itself. paul: so what is the response from the u.s. to this? bruce: president biden made a statement yesterday expressing

support for israel, saying that our commitment to israeli security is ironclad. the president said that word again, ironclad. israel has said that it is waiting on its expected attack on rafah in the southern part of gaza to see first what will happen when the iranians will attack. the u.s. of course has been trying to pressure israel to not proceed with that attack imminently, to do more to protect civilians in gaza, address the humanitarian crisis there. an iranian missile attack on israel would considerably escalate tensions, potentially

widening the war. since the outbreak of hostilities in october, there has been a series of attacks from iran's proxy in lebanon has below toward northern israel. for the most part, those attacks have been limited in scale. iranian missile attacking potential an israeli city would obviously really raise the stakes here. paul: let's tease that out more. we did see israel remove troops and there was some speculation as to whether they were preparing for a potential threat elsewhere. so we are in the realm of hypotheticals now. if iran were to attack, what would that mean for the escalation of the war? bruce: again, you are right. we are in a world of hypotheticals here. i think a lot would depend on where the attack is coming from. according to people familiar,

the attack wouldn't necessarily come from hezbollah in lebanon. around does have other proxies. so we would need to see just where the attack comes from, what the attack would target, the extent of the damage. there are a lot of unanswered questions here. you are right. it does have the potential to further widen the conflict. paul: all right. bruce einhorn, thank you. we will continue to track how that conflict in the middle east is moving oil markets. rice said energy will share their outlook in the next hour. kkr and hsbc selling an optimistic note on china even as the global investors withdraw billions. more on where they are seeing opportunities, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: china's invest ability was a key topic as financial executives gathered for bloomberg's new voices hong kong launch event. kkr and hsbc asset management was sounding and optimistic note on china. >> first of all, the context is

that the global fund allocation to china hit a 25 year low. the room for further sales is significantly reduced. and then i think the concerns of investors where we talk to you, primarily relating to geopolitical events like u.s. elections, the week property market in china, the long-term growth of china and all that. at the same time, the elevation to the global markets and asian markets versus china also explaining why they were underweight for so long. the sentiment has improved. cyclical growth stabilization and expansion meaning the market is already out of the deflationary cycle. with that, we started to see some regional active managers

cutting back there underweight position in hong kong and mainland china. this is what we have been seeing. i think investors eventually need to see their earnings revision before we can see more sustainable inflows to the market. it will be sometime before the key trends are moving back to china. >> how attractive is china to you now? obviously, you've been trying to tap into the wealth. what is the way to capture that in china right now? >> so we have invested in china. we continue to invest in china. we think that china is investable. if you talk about some of the trends that daisy has highlighted, china has come

under pressure in the real estate sector. if you think about the new economy, the green economy, the industrial automation, this comprises about 20% of the gdp growth but it's actually 50% of the growth. that sector is definitely of interest. consumption upgrades, technology upgrades. we are simple investor. we invest in retail pharmacy chains. we invest in hospitals, liquor, pet food, mushrooms. it's the consumer that we are after. if you think about 850 million odd millennials, these are the consumers that we invest into. now, i want to add that remember the as a currency, when you look at trade, has an increased transaction volume today. we see the currency as an

ecosystem in china. we want to invest into that. paul: you mentioned -- >> you mention more about putting cash to work. what our clients telling you right now? obviously equities have done well this year. they was supposed to be the year of the bond. we haven't quite seen that yet. what are their preferences right now? what are the flows telling you? >> i think for us, because of a lot of the retail clients, we see a lot of assets piling to cash. so i'm trying to generalize some of the investment behavior here. in asia, there's one cycle which is income. people love income product with dividend payout, regular dividend payout. this is the one trends that we have been seeing in different market cycles.

as i mentioned earlier on, i think for those who want to have higher returns, they would be going back to equities and then india. india is an obvious choice for some of the investors. not even on the equity side. even on the fixed income side. when you look at india, because of the bond index inclusion of india government bonds. only until march, we have already seen around 8.8 billion into the local indian bond market. you can see the potential there. then we have large institutional clients already looking into allocating to india fixed income as part of their money allocation. i think over time, this client will definitely look beyond the inclusion. they would put it as a strategic asset location.

for india, the fixed income market, we will see it. 100 billion investment getting into india. of course, you guys can see the stock market where it's been performing fairly well. i think the story will continue. that's a very strong inflow as part of the investment seem over the past 12 months. paul: hsbc asset management and kate ridgedale speaking with yvonne man in hong kong. bloomberg new voices is an initiative focused on amplifying the voices of women and underrepresented voices in finance. the strivers can see more from that launch event on the terminal and online. we have plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold.

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paul: all right. let's take a look at how we are tracking on markets. take a look at the kospi. a little bit of green there. erasing a lot of its losses that we saw after the market opened on the back of that shock u.s. cpi print. it's a phenomenon we are seeing with other markets as well. some of them are raising those early losses. take a look at treasuries as well. yields starting to back off a

little. they are still higher than they were when we started the day but the two-year now for 94. we are keeping a close watch on that to see if it crosses the 5% level. it will be europe's turn in a minute. let's take a look at our futures. looking ahead of the open, not too bad. euro stoxx 50 futures looking flat at the moment. ftse 100 futures in positive territory. s&p looking flat as well. that's it from bloomberg markets asia. daybreak and middle east and africa coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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