innovation. our top stories this hour. >> we have got a really strong wealth management business here in hong kong. i want an equally strong wealth management capability in mainland china, singapore, and india. haslinda: hsbc's ceo telling us exclusively about the banks push to bolster wealth management across asia to match its home market across hong kong. more from the hsbc global investors summit this hour. we will speak exclusively with the nse's ceo, plus, janet yellen preparing to meet the pboc governor as she says her china visit is putting relations on a firmer footing. first, let's get you to markets and annabelle droulers is on top of that. annabelle: we're heading through the morning session and it is

looking mixed. a couple of things are standing out to us when we look at the different functions this morning. really it is that focus on what's happening. broadly stocks are eking out gains. we will get to why in just a minute. what is moving to the downside mostly as chinese equities. coming back from a longer two-day holiday, coming back to some negative new sentiment as well. one story dominating today is shimao, a default in chinese developer, one of several we are tracking, but shimao has received a winding up petition, a chinese estate maker is asking a court to liquidate that company. that is writing down the index and affecting sentiment so far. even though we see the hang seng eking out gains so far in the session. what else we are tracking today is that market reaction to that jobs report on friday. the numbers came in better than expected. it tells us, once again, the

u.s. economy is looking very resilient even though there is higher interest rates. because of that, traders are rethinking their fed cut bets. equities are moving higher up the back of that tracking nikkei futures, but still half an hour out from the lunch break reopening, but looking at treasuries that are listed or traded in tokyo. we are seeing those moving a little to the upside. it really is traders rethinking. are we even going to see a fed cut this year at all? haslinda: it is about treasuries and the surge in yields. investors seeing this week's u.s. inflation report as the next key event that will determine whether yields stabilize a push toward a new ties rate our next guest expects u.s. inflation to moderate or the next few months. let's bring in rachana mehta, cohead of fixed income at maybank investment management. rachana: in march, the cbre

tends to be lower, i am expecting it to come down. my view is the market expecting 1-2%. i expect it will be very similar. the next three months generally from march, u.s. inflation tends to go down. maybe consumer spending is lower, retail sales are slowing down. i think that will moderate. of course, it may not go back to the fed's target but i think we will see moderating over the next two months. haslinda: is there perhaps concerned that the fed may be too data dependent? bearing in mind to data is actually backward-looking? rachana: i totally agree. the u.s. economy is normally seen as such a strong economy.

maybe with all the migrant workers, there are a lot of part-time jobs available and the u.s., and that is changing the current scope of the u.s. economy. u.s. used to import a lot of oil, now it is one of the biggest exporters of oil. i have seen a trend of changes in the u.s. economy. it is difficult, but whole world is looking at u.s. data. everybody thinks the data will weaken but it is not happening. i think data is the key, of course, but it is very difficult to be forward-looking because the economy changes in such a way, plus we have a short-term trajectory and geopolitics. unless the fed can see long-term, but long-term, u.s. inflation is on an upward trend. haslinda: the focus is on

treasuries and surging yields. the question we are asking today is wendy you see two-year yields getting to 5%, and what happens to 10-year yields right now? rachana: in terms of 10-year yields, for me personally, we see about 4.5%, but it looks very attractive to go long-term. especially before the election. after september, all the bets are off depending on who comes to power, but it looks attractive to go along duration. i think the two-year is difficult. we expect first rate cut in june. we expect inflation to moderate over the next three months. close to the election, they may not want to cut rates, so i think the first cut will be in june. a lot of market participants are pushing toward july, but my

expectation is they will cut in june. in terms of 10-year, 4.5 looks attractive, as long as the oil price stays around 85-90, but if oil price goes higher, the 10-year can go back to 4.60, but we are coming close to the high for the 10-year treasury. haslinda: it is higher for longer. in fact, higher than most expected, and longer than most anticipated. how do you play this market bearing in mind that some are perhaps saying there is risk of a default cycle to bear in mind as well? rachana: it has not been an easy market for people like us. for the whole year, if you look at last year, we were very flat, we made most of the returns in november-december. this year, i expect you stay flat, just under kerry, maybe the rate our four-year in terms

of high-yield segment, when that time is right take the big bet on duration. for me, the dollar is key eight, the time to push on the dollar is long-duration. if it look at the stronger fp number this weekend, dollar is not very strong. if you look at singapore dollar. thailand keeping the renminbi strong, but when i look at the currency reaction, it is not as strong as we expected. it should strengthen more. maybe we are coming back to peak i am dollar level. that will be the two traits i see for the next three to six months. haslinda: the dollar may not be too strong, but it has been weighing a lot on emerging-market currencies. where do you seek shelter, how do you play the fx space, where are your conviction call us? rachana: in terms of conviction

calls, we like the rupiah, it has weakened a lot but we are waiting for the cabinet sometime in september. because of the kerry, real rates are still high in india and indonesia. millwrights in india is two to 3%. these two currencies look attractive from a long-term perspective. rbi will keep the rupees stable. in terms of renminbi, china is keeping strong renin be, at one point they want to cut rates, and that the other point they want to keep stable currency. given how weak yen is and how weak korea and taiwan dollar is, for us, i think pboc should slowly let renminbi go. the past 10 to 15 years, every time in april renminbi may be one to 2%, so i am exciting it

to weaken, hopefully pboc will start giving away the fixing. actually it is good to be long dollars against renminbi, but continue to be long rupee for the short-term. the level of dollar is still not certain, so better to be neutral from a color perspective, but you can be long rupee. haslinda: speaking of the yuan, is there more selling pressure than the pboc anticipated? rachana: i see some selling pressure. every time it is hitting the 2% level, over the last week, it hit the fixing level from 2%. maybe to pay off some dollar loans. we are seeing some pressure. if you look at the renminbi basket it is almost touching

100. whenever the basket touches 100, let the fixing go slowly. this time because the u.s. is so high, the pboc is worried, so they want to manage the fixing, but i'm hoping they will let the fixing go because it has to move with a basket. based on the basket, i think renminbi is still strong. they are focusing on the basket. but everything should weaken from here. haslinda: not too long ago, the yuan was a great carry trade, now people are saying it is the swissie. your thoughts on the best carry trade out there? rachana: it is very tough. for yen, [indiscernible] because definitely it is close to the 154 level. people are going to wait for the intervention.

you have to be very careful to do carry trade now. we have to look at the renminbi. if you see little change in the fixing, that may be good to be slightly long dollars short-term against renminbi paid for the yen, it is difficult, very volatile currency. they are almost at the intervention zone for dollar-yen. haslinda: before we go. one quick question on gold. people don't talk too much about it but it is currently trading close to record highs. why is china buying so much gold, buying for the seventh consecutive month? rachana: not even china, india also is buying a lot of gold. people are worried because the u.s. election is coming closer. a lot of central banks -- maybe gold is a good asset. gold is a good inflation hedge.

we have seen huge buying of gold even by a lot of players. china domestically is not allowed to hold a dollars, so maybe gold as an alternative asset, so where do they keep their wealth? they are not allowed to buy dollars given the capital controls. a lot of chinese local retailers have been buying gold as an asset class. from a long-term trajectory, given central bank strategy of continue to buy gold, a lot of players will start buying gold. maybe they expect a cut, maybe they will do two times, but when the rate cutting cycle starts, gold tends to do well. given the geopolitics of what's happening also, i think gold is a good asset class to have in your portfolio from a long-term perspective. haslinda: buying gold for the

17th straight month. rachana mehta, maybank asset management, thank you for your insights. this week is way to be busy for central banks across the region. bloomberg economics expects the reserve bank of new zealand to keep unchanged as it remains on guardians lingering price pressures. the monetary authority of singapore looks to hold. the philippines, thailand and south korea also excited to keep rates unchanged. in europe, no rate change expected from the ecb, but the hold could be the final one before it starts using monetary policy. aside from central bank decisions, we will get the latest inflation reading out of the u.s., mark cpi print could reveal modest slowdown in the monthly pace of core inflation, which by the way, remains sticky. still ahead this hour, we speak

exclusively with the ceo of the national stock exchange of india here at the hbc global investment summit. but first, u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen wrapping up a china visit, after high-profile meetings and a delicate balancing act. details just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as the world's two largest economies, we have a duty to our own countries and to the world, to responsibly manage our complex relationship. and to cooperate and show leadership on addressing pressing global challenges.

>> on april the second, president xi jinping spoke with president joe biden on the phone. they both agreed that the two sides need to enhance dialogue, manage their fences and advanced cooperation and jointly maintain the overall stability of the china-u.s. relationship. china sincerely hopes the two countries will be partners, not adversaries. and our two sides need to respect each other, coexist in peace and pursue willing cooperation. haslinda: u.s. treasury sec. janet yellen and chinese premier li qiang during their bilateral meeting in beijing on sunday. sec. yellen is meeting today with pboc governor before wrapping up her china visit. for more, let's bring in bruce einhorn. what have we heard from yellen? we know this is a charm offensive. she wants to boost relations and also curb exports from china. >> haslinda, this is her second

visit in the last nine months to china. janet yellen has a reputational being not so hawkish on china in the biden administration compared to other members of the u.s. administration. if there is anybody who can deliver a message to the chinese and get some sort of good response, it should be janet yellen. she has been there since friday. we just saw a meeting with premier li qiang. that was at the great hall of the people yesterday. that was actually not on the original schedule. still today, she's meeting with the pboc governor. she's also going to be meeting with the former vice premier, who was also the former economic czar, still very influential. a key part of her message has been the threat china poses to other economies. as the chinese economy has

slowed because of the real estate crisis and the chinese government has responded by boosting investment in manufacturing. janet yellen's argument is that this means china is unfairly exporting inexpensive goods. and that threatens industries in the u.s. and elsewhere. she has saw also -- sought for chinese to treat u.s. company better perigee has issued a warning to chinese comedies for there alleges support for russia. russian companies, which is a major issue for the u.s., as the u.s. tries to further clamp down on sanctions. the sanctions avoidance by russian companies. haslinda: what has been china's response to the messaging -- to the criticisms from janet yellen? >> it's been a little bit mixed.

there was some positive rhetoric from the meeting that came out of her meeting with the premier, in which he said there was what he called candid and in-depth discussions on key issues. that said, there has also been more criticism. xinhua official news agency had a commentary in which it referred to criticism such as janet yellen's as sign of phobic -- sinophobic and smacks of protectionism. xinhua cited concerns over u.s. trade and investment restrictions. we had seen there will be more discussions today. this will be something they will manage going forward. this will be the last visit by janet yellen before the u.s. election. haslinda: bruce einhorn, thank

you for that. hsbc's ceo noel quinn is pushing to improve his bank's wealth management capabilities in china and india. we spoke to him exclusively as the bank hosts its first global investment summit here in hong kong. noel: in 2023, the performance of our wealth and personal banking business in hong kong, we saw significant customer acquisition. we also saw around about 50% growth in our insurance and wealth business, in terms of new business last year. the facts are wealth management is continuing to develop and grow in hong kong. the liquidity base in hong kong today is higher than pre-covered levels. --pre-covid levels. i still see for hong kong is a vibrant financial center. capital markets are subdued but that is a function of still coming out of covid. the economy is waiting to recover, but we have seen early

signs of the debt capital market starting to pick up as well. the facts support that hong kong still is a vibrant financial market. david: you are set to report your first quarter earnings in a couple of weeks, so you can't give the details, but we just wrapped up the calendar quarter, how do you think the quarter went for you guys? noel: 2023 windex family well, over $30 billion of profit. that is a combination of the hard work of our colleagues over the past four and a half years and also the loyalty of our customers. they have been very supportive of hsbc as we went through covid and transition. our returns where the best for over 10 years. and our dividend, at 61 cents, is the best for 15 years. i was pleased with performance. we are never complacent. we are making sure we are well-positioned for the future. and we continue to invest in the business. we're investing in wealth management in asia.

we have done acquisitions to do that. the most recent that we announced was the acquisition of the citibank wealth management business in mainland china. we bought the insurance business of axa in singapore and an asset management business in india. every region performed well last year and every business line. in india, we made over $1.5 billion profit. if you put bow, and our own bank in china, we made over $3.5 billion in profit. this year we take profit across the world and all parts of the bank doing extremely well. haslinda: that was hsbc's ceo speaking exclusively to david ingles at the global investment summit here in hong kong. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

haslinda: welcome back. some top geopolitical stories we're following. israel is pulling some troops out of khan yunis in southern gaza as war passes the six-month mark. president netanyahu says israel is one step from victory but repeated there would be no ceasefire without the return of hostages held in gaza by hamas since october 7. iran says it has asked the u.s. to step aside as it prepares a response to a suspected israeli attack on its consulate in syria. the strike earlier this month killed senior irani and military officials. the iranian president says it warned washington not to get dragged in what they call netanyahu's trap. the u.s. has not commented on any such message from iran. coming up, our exclusive conversation with the ceo of the

national stock exchange of india here at the hsbc global investment summit. we discuss his outlook for the world's largest derivatives exchange. this is a market that has gone gangbusters. foreign investors keen to take advantage of that rally. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ not all caitlin clark's are the same. caitlin clark, city planner. just like not all internet providers are the same, don't settle. get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. get the real deal with xfinity internet today, and get fast speeds and a reliable connection to all your devices in the home —even when everyone is online.

♪ >> this was a hot report that suggested the economy is reaccelerating. >> jobs report confirmed exceptionalism. >> incredible jobs report. 3000 jobs created. >> when you look at the 300,000 jobs, it is on top of historic

gains. we will end up with two cuts this year. it may not start as early as people thought initially. >> the fed would like to do three cuts. you need to see the data improve. haidi: some guests reacting to strong u.s. jobs data, it was hot. let's check in on how markets are faring with annabelle. mixed picture in asia. >> one market reflects the heat, it is japan. markets coming back in the last seconds or so. gains extended into the afternoon session. market reaction to the jobs report, traders thinking whether we will see cuts this year,

exceptional when you think seven were priced in. now perhaps you might not see any, but the japanese yen is close to the 152 mark and equities are benefiting. you can see here that on an intraday basis every sector right now is in the red or the green rather, but some sectors get rate sensitive, consumer discretionary, financials, i.t., these are big gainers. to the flipside, you had chinese markets going into their lunch break and mixed bag. hong kong is moving higher, but mainland equities are under pressure. there is one key theme and that relates to china's property sector. one name in particular is a

default did chinese developer absolutely slumping. going into the lunch break they received a winding up order to liquidate from its creditors. so this tells us there are concerns around china's property sector and one reason we've seen so many investors going to markets like india. haslinda: that's right, india is an outperformer aiming to attract $100 billion a year as it accords investors looking to diversified. let's get more on the wider investment landscape. joining us is ceo of the national stock exchange in india, the world's largest exchange by trading volume. first off, talk about this outstanding market rally.

is it still rational exuberance? >> it is, what the market does this discount the future. we look at the past and that is where if you look at the future, volume it is discounting india's future but we look at the past data. annabelle: where is interest coming from? >> you can see the interest, this is the last four or five years, retail investors post-covid, we have seen the number of investors that stayed with us go up more than three point five times, which is unheard of, because we have 19

million investors directly investing with us. we would be in the top 15 countries in terms of just investors. there are only two large markets, china and india. investors who use to invest in gold and real estate are coming into the market because it is easy to transact on stock markets. haslinda: in terms of international institutions, where is interest coming from? terms of incentives, what would be most attractive? >> making profits. if you make losses, no incentives will be that important to compensate for your losses. so where you see growth is where

investors come in. and foreign investors coming from u.s. and europe specifically, they have been there for almost 30 years now, institutional investor customers. but asia trading, singapore and hong kong, large funds from japan and korea also so overall, interest is broad-based. haslinda: yet, not as deep. what would it take for foreign investors to come in in a bigger way bearing in mind this economy is growing at about 8%. foreign investors have stated india for 30 years. many occasions they make money out of india.

very easy unlike other countries, so everyone is comfortable and they have their plans. there were worries about india's ability to absorb a lot of funds, now that is gone. more and more institutional investors including large index funds are investing. haslinda: do you expect a doubling in the next three to five years? what kind of anticipation? >> doubling in five years time because economic sales are double. so the way we look at it, 18% of india's market is almost 36% of free flow. so because 50% is owned by leverage, what we call promoter managers and members, retail

investors have taken and domestic institution investors have taken up some slack a couple of years back so retail guys took up the slack. numbers have been consistent. 70 to 20% over the past almost two weekends and that is rare even if you continue, numbers will double because india is growing to lovable on the index -- growing double in the last five or six years. haslinda: there was confusion of fx derivatives. why was that? miscommunication or lack of communication? >> misunderstanding on the part of the market participants because of the foreign exchange

so lots and lots of circulars and everything needs to be together, so everyone has figured out what to do and for institutional investors, they did not participate in the currency. more local in a smaller market. haslinda: in terms of underlying exposure, is that it? i want to talk about nifty volumes because it is yet to get to the levels we saw the for shift. why is that and what would it take? >> the nifty is at the highest ever numbers. trading volumes on it as you rightly say, nsc is the largest in terms of number of trades, but if you look at february data

from february 24, this is the largest in trades and equities, the largest market of any type. haslinda: yet to get to the levels before? >> the numbers tell you that overall the contracts are higher than before. so basically when someone says traded volumes, i would not agree but probably a few points away. if you more points and it may go up again. haslinda: are you introducing measures to prop up volumes? >> no. we do not actually try to do anything. lee escalated small people from

trading so it is actually not as simple as people make it out to be. haslinda: expansion plans beyond india? >> the exchange has its hands full with 90 million people, because we have 1.4 billion peoples so we will remain in india and if our government agrees, we will provide support. haslinda: we talked about how indians and retail investors play the market, but there are concerns that only those in touch with markets you understand the markets should play the markets, because most retail investors have been burned. >> i think we mixed up when we call them retail investors.

they made huge money even if they are not educated. even if they don't have time they can invest in mutual fund for example. if you look back, 95 when the nifty was 1000 and, today it is 24,000 plus and because you need to take the total, it would be 5000. so in 29 years if you continue to be an investor, that is a long term person, india is a no-brainer. i say america [indiscernible]

if you are an investor you do not lose money in india. it is a fast-moving market. and a lot of expert players including algorithms are coming to their. that is why we described it as an exchange. small players, i did not call them investors, but anyone needs to be very careful. haslinda: ipo plans have been shelved. now it is just waiting on said the. how is it going? >> when they are comfortable, it is a procedural activity for me and as an individual in manager, i have a few ideals and as an exchange manager, i have participated in listings of thousands of companies so we know what to look for. haslinda: nfc has done

everything a can, it is meeting requirements? why the delay in giving the go-ahead? within the year? do you think it could be within the year? >> i keep my fingers crossed, it is one of the jobs i do. the exchange is the largest in the world and among the fastest in the world, so that keeps my hands full, but this is an important part of the job. so we go ahead when regulators are convinced. haslinda: what would be the biggest next transformation after the 1990's when you introduced electronic trading? >> everything that comes, including algorithms trading and

the coal location facility and microseconds and fiberoptics and what have you, this has always been one step ahead of investors in terms of thinking and execution. for me, the larger part of the stock exchange is about coins because trading is crossing but when you invest, the longer life is with the company. corporate governance and top five in the world in terms of information frequency of the quality of information and protection for investors and managers and outsiders. indian markets today are firing on all cylinders.

for me, that is a half story. the not exciting but important story is corporate governance. haslinda: the investment community seems complacent when it comes to the indian election. what are your thoughts on the risks that they might have underestimated? >> there are two sides to the coin. the last 30 years, not even 35 years, in india whatever the politics, politics left-wing but economics right wing or vice versa, in whichever coalition, they will always liberalize the economy. there has been a consistency of policies and changes for jobs, using india's advantage on

demographics, it has been consistent. so india will be on the same path in some ways. minor changes which everyone keeps talking about. broadly speaking, markets have discounted the current government coming back and so broadly speaking, if you call it anticipation that is what it is. haslinda: good to have you with us, ceo of the largest exchange in india. coming up, more on how india is looking to take china's crown as the next growth driver. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ haslinda: welcome back, you're watching india and they been trading for several minutes. index of 4/10 of 1% with india buying to take the crown as foreign investment floods the nation and the government lines

up deals with a youthful labor market. let's bring in our economy and government reporter. >> india and china contribute half of gdp growth. so india has a young population, half the population is under the age of 30 and the contribution is 16% with china's. india is growing rapidly and if it can grow a little bit more, our story goes that it can be as important as china as a global growth driver. haslinda: how soon can this happen and why might stand in

the way. >> yeah, we are estimating that that can happen by 2028 or this decade or it could take about a decade or so. eventually that may happen because india is growing at 20% in china is growing at 4%. there are number of challenges. china's economy is five times larger than india and in india there are challenged like workforce participation, labor force needs to increase from 25 percent to somewhere like 50 or 60% and india needs to do rapid urbanization so that the population kinship to manufacturing and services.

for that, they need to develop infrastructure. new infrastructure has developed in the last five years. the budget has increased, basically tripled to about 11 trillion rupees. but he needs to do a lot more and bring a a lot of manufacturing companies on sure from china or wherever they want to come from, incentives, etc.. so they need to fix those things to grow for many years before it can become as important as china is right now. haslinda: it's about capitalizing on dividends. the problem is youth unemployment is high. >> yeah, yet.

india needs to develop it's me factoring sector especially the manufacturing sector that can absorb a lot growth permanent employment so we are seeing rise in the gig economy. but with manufacturing can scale up, a lot of yield can be employed in factories. india needs to increase the manufacturing push. the prime minister wants to see manufacturing be 25% of gdp from about 16-17% now. so that is a tough target, but it needs to do so. haslinda: we've heard from people saying india needs to grow beyond eight or 9% for that to happen. economy and government reporter, thank you for your insights.

keep it here with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ haslinda: some top stories out of china, minister of commerce has held a roundtable with ev

makers in paris. more than 10 companies attended along with chairman of commerce in china to discuss business situation in europe and the subsidy investigation into chinese electric vehicles. president biden is planning to warn china about its increasingly aggressive activity. senior officials say biden will express concern about the situation around the area where chinese and philippine ships have been. domestic taurus spent almost 13% more during the three-day holiday than the same time in 2019. official figures show more than 119 million chinese travel for the holiday. of 11 and a half percent. japan, thailand, south korea and

taiwan where the most popular destinations and hong kong heading off to lunch break. plenty more ahead on bloomberg markets: asia. keep it here with us, markets are mixed. payroll out of the u.s., meaning the fed is likely to delay the first rate cut. is june it live? keep it here with us, this iblo♪

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