>> good morning, this is

"bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am lizzy burden in london and these are the stories the judge or agenda. stocks in asia follow the u.s. lower ahead of the crucial jobs report. fed officials divided, neel kashkari floating the possibility of no cuts but loretta mester is saying the central bank is getting closer to its target. israel agrees to open new aid routes into gaza after a warning from president biden. we'll extends gains with brent pushing above $90 per barrel for the first time since october. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen starts are we on visit to china with a warning the chinese overcapacity manufacturing poses risks to the global economy. also on the show, our exclusive interview with argentina's president javier millet -- milei. happy friday, the day you will

been waiting for all we, u.s. jobs day. could we get the goldilocks scenario for markets? the suggestion that the labor market is taking a serious downturn but no excuse for the fed to not cut rates again. we will preview that with our guests, the chief economist edward morgan stanley, but yesterday in the meantime while we were waiting for the data we were treated to even more fed speak. kashkari and mester both speaking and stop swiping out any gains they made earlier in the session. wall street futures pointing to a higher opening, not the case for europe, but if you flip over to the cross asset picture you have got treasury yields steady on the two year as we await the

u.s. jobs report. brent topping $90 per barrel on netanyahu vowing to operate against iran and his proxies. we have had geopolitical risks rumbling in the background many months now, but this is a new threat to oil supply. these moves are all about the fear of the unknown. a look at copper, it has rallied to its highest in 14 months, so extended the gains this guarded in february it response to civilizing -- rising supply risks. vonnie quinn is standing by for us in dubai. what is happened? >> the same risk aversion percolating through asian markets, offering those were mxp , still done .8 of 1% for the asia pacific index. the hang seng reopened after the holiday. mainland china and taiwan closed

today, the hang seng done .4 of 1%, property companies dragging on the hang seng. we got good news for a chip company i will tell you about that in a moment, but we have the hang seng down, china continues to be closed. this is a reaction to all of the risk aversion in the united states on thursday. nikkei225 down 2.1 percent. a little more strength in after governor await a -- ueda said the wage hike will be impacting from a be june, july, so that had traders thinking the next interest rate increase could come somewhere between july and october as opposed to what they have been thinking, which is that it would be pushed out toward the october timeframe. kospi down 1%. samsung came in and signaled profit for the quarter, but the

actual signaling is an already that they return to profit. memory chip prices up for the last seven months and it is finally showing in sense of's results -- samsung's results. risk aversion is permeating in these markets. there is a safe haven bid, the bloomberg dollar index strengthening just a little bit. the yen hit 81.51. they you want continues to be troublesome trading close to the weak end. in india that we had the reserve bank of india hold rates as expected. that we were expecting the rv i do hold rates at 6.5%. the governor came out and said food price inflation is troublesome, very volatile but there will be keeping a close eye on it and he thinks consumption can hold up india's

economy which is growing at close to eight percent and we are canted into elections, so it is a volatile time for the country. lizzy: we will stay in asia because janet yellen is there in china on her latest visit, her second trip to china in nine months, and she has got a pledge to work toward a better economic ties but is worn chinese overcapacity and manufacturing poses risks for the rest of the world economy. let's bring in bill faries. i was her message likely to be received? >> you summed it up very well. she was showing up with the message that the two countries can work together, and the fact that she is there on her second trip in just nine months is a turnaround from where we were a year ago when we went almost an

entire year without the two sides talking at all, so her visit is assigned communication channels are open, but she is showing up with a mixed message, saying the economies can work together but raising a lot of concerns of chinese overcapacity, and they are trying to bring other countries and on that message is speaking to foreign business leaders on this trip as well. she is emphasizing concerns the u.s. has about clean energy, ev's, solar panels, things like that and saying with china about to be a slowing economy their focus on exporting these products to the rest of the world could end up doing damage to industries abroad. lizzy: when she is talking about chinese overcapacity what is it likely to mean for the u.s.- china relationship? >> we heard earlier this week

when president biden and president xi spoke, the u.s. side said they were is the potential of more terrorists coming in. that is something janet yellen's trip may be laying the groundwork for. we have been reporting about additional restrictions on things like semiconductor tech elegy, so well she is there talking quite a bit about the potential in the relationship, there is a message of this seems to be delivered that will cause consternation on the chinese side. lizzy: we thank you for that as we await janet yellen's speaking at an event over in china. let's get back to the main event of the day, march u.s. jobs report out later likely to offer some insight into the fed's next moves. expectations are for declines in top line nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate following the

latest weekly jobless claims. we have been treated to some fed speak. we heard from kashkari calling for patients on rate cuts. >> would not say they are off the table but they are not a likely scenario. if we continue to see strong job growth, strong consumer spending and gdp growth, that raises the question in my mind why would we cut rates. >> if you take a longer art inflation is coming down and we will get to 2%. lizzy: let's bring in mark cudmore. let's focus first on the non-farm payrolls. we have the whisper number above the consensus figure of 214,000, but then you have consensus

numbers weaker. >> if i was going to take up my darts i would go for a slightly softer number today. what is interesting about this job number is for the first time in a long time i think we are probably skewed for a negative markets reaction. normally we have been skewed for positive reaction, but we have run a long way in the market of the idea of a debit spread despite the strong economy and the market has to face the idea that we are not going to get a rate cuts with the economy is in more trouble than we think, so a surprise in either direction today might actually be bad for the stock market and the stock market will indeed to ok if it is an in-line number. lizzy: unemployment rate, estimate for 3.8%. at the last fed meeting q had a pal using his opening statement saying a surprise on this number could prompt the fed to cut.

what level of unemployment would we need to see to trigger a may cut? it will have to be at least 4%, but i am not sure that would do would inmate. i think it will change -- take more than one data point to change the narrative. unless we have a severe change in the data, so at the moment we should be talking about being in line with kashkari. he does not vote and is a no knock, but i do not know why we would be cutting unless we see it in the data. we would need a few more did a prince to confirm it may cut. lizzy: do you think you would see a bigger repricing of that was a very strong print or weak print? >> that is a big question.

i think we get the much bigger reaction in yields if it is a strong print again today. the market is refusing to turn away from the idea that we will get fed cuts this year, but there is no justification out there for it yet. we are thinking there might be some secret hidden crops -- cracks in the economy. if we get a weak number of people will stay with that narrative. the asymmetric reaction is if we got a strong print today and again bashes the idea in that we will be getting any fed cuts, and we are having all of this debate about whether to get two or three cuts. why should we be cutting it all if the economy is not going over? the consumer is still strong, the labor market is still strong. i think for stockmarkets it just wants to be in line for stockmarkets to do ok. lizzy: mark cudmore with a

preview of the u.s. jobs report later. we have got plenty more else on the docket to keep us busy. at 7:00 a.m. london time, we get german factory orders and the consensus expectation for growth on a monthly basis but not on the year. at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, the u.s. jobs report. if we see unemployment rising above 4% does it put it may cut on the table? mark not so sure. at 5:00 p.m. london time, though you might be in the pub, it is a question gdp, economist expecting a tick down to five point 3% growth in the fourth quarter of last year, but we will be across all of that data throughout the day, and to get you up to speed ready for your day do not forget to check out the daybreak newsletter, da why

bigo -- da yb go on the terminal. janet yellen is speaking at an event. >>lge of the time, but i think like many of you one of the ways you gauge what is happening in china [indiscernible] lizzy: the point of this trip is to strengthen the u.s.-china economic relationship in a healthier way. janet yellen has talked about the importance of not decoupling but does raise concerns about massive chinese state investment, so how will she strike this balance in these remarks? after these comments, she is scheduled to meet the chinese economic policies are -- czar,

the vice premier along with his predecessor who analysts say retains influence in china. two important conversations for janet yellen to be having today. she is building on the phone call between president biden and xi early in the week and setting foundations from another visit from secretary of state antony blinken, at a crucial moment for the u.s.-china relationship. tensions high at the moment focused very much on tech, tiktok in particular, the potential u.s. ban. we see janet yellen taking to the stage now. >> thank you so much. thank you to the american chamber of commerce for hosting this event, and i am very glad to have the opportunity to speak to american businesses here in

guangzhou at the start of my visit. the city holds a unique position in chinese economic history. it was key to chinese trade for centuries. the first ship from the newly independent united states talking here in 1784. then guangzhou was at the heart of economic reforms and industrial development that drove china's tremendous growth, and it was a key stop on the 1992 southern tour when he renewed china's commitment to these performance. today as all of you know well it remains the top destination for foreign investment in china, including from fortune global 500 companies.

it is a fitting place for me to emphasize strong economic ties between united states and china and the benefits of that these ties can bring for both the u.s. and chinese economies. i would also like to touch on concerns, concerns that i have heard from american businesses, which i intend to discuss with my chinese counterparts of this week. let me start with the importance of the u.s.-china economic relationship. one year ago i laid out our administration's approach to china out lending. in the united states will pursue a healthy economic relationship with china. we will seek to cooperate with china on global challenges, and we will deploy our economic tools when needed and in a narrowly targeted manner to

protect our national security and that of our allies as well as human rights. president biden and i firmly rejected the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic saturation -- separation is not desirable as both the united states and china have confirmed in public statements. america's economic strategy is centered around it investing in our economic strength. over the past three years, our administration's policies drive a historic economic recovery and laid the foundation for long-term economic growth. we are also deepening our ties with allies and partners around the world while continuing to pursue the broad swath of

economic activities between the u.s. and china that can benefit both countries. our conviction on the importance of a healthy economic relationship is rooted in the understanding of the roles that the united states and china play in the global economy. together the u.s. and china represent 40% of global gdp. we have the world's largest financial systems. countries around the world watch both of our economies, but also our interactions as they are crucial to global growth. the u.s. is china's largest trading partner is -- and china is the united states's largest trading partner following canada. it represents a huge market for

american manufacturers and other firms in think that's represented in this room. exports to china through transportation equipment integrated into circuits support american jobs and chinese companies to employ additional american workers. but simply the u.s.-china bilateral economic relationship is among the most important in the world. responsibly managing it is essential. under president biden's direction we have taken steps over the last two years that it put the u.s.-china economic relationship on a much surer footing. one of my key priorities has been to establish resilient communication channels between the u.s. and china, which i have done through engagements with my

counterparts in china. we hold regular meetings with the economic and financial working groups, bringing together policy teams in both our countries to discuss key aspects of our relationship. through monitoring economic and financial risks to identifying and pursuing areas of potential cooperation. for areas where we disagree, communication helps prevent misunderstanding through unintended escalation and allows us to frankly convey concerns. it is in the spirit of continuing to move the u.s.-china relationship in a constructive direction that i would like to share my concerns about the business environment in china and the ability of american firms to compete on a level playing field.

i have heard from many american business executives that china can be challenging. i understand that it recent survey found that 1/3 of american firms in china report experiencing unfair treatment compared to local competitors. unfair economic practices including imposing barriers to access and taking coercive actions against the american companies. i strongly believe this does not only hurt these american firms. ending these unfair practices would benefit china by improving the business climate here, and i intend to raise these issues in meetings this week. i know that american businesses are also concerned that -- lizzy: a dressing down for u.s.

treasury secretary janet yellen. she is trying to strengthen ties between the two countries, it is a crucial moment. this is one of the last few opportunities to strengthen those ties before the u.s. election, which is becoming a battle to who can be tougher on china, but janet yellen chiding the chinese government for which he called the unfair treatment of american and other foreign companies, also called in on beijing to return to the premarket reforms of the past saying chinese capacity is more than the global economy can bear. overcapacity for china becoming problematic now. we will keep across the rest of her four day visit to the country. europe has swapped russian lng for supply from the u.s. we will bring you a deep dive in europe's natural gas outlook and

what it means for the energy transition. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: time for our weekly deep dive into the green energy transition, europe is made it through winter with record gas storage levels and reduce reliance on russian gas committed instead to using u.s. lng supply and cleaner energy resources. i am joined by the head of bloomberg's lng gas team. is there were prepared for when the russia-ukraine transit agreement expires later this year? >> yes, europe may face a complete cut off of national pipeline supplies, so we are watching for any developments.

pipeline supplies by ukraine power about 5% so the region has diversified it's supply sources. the european union is made it clear it is unlikely they would be willing to negotiate with russia and ukraine is dismissed this opportunity multiple times. what remains unclear is whether ukraine would be open for other arrangements as certain other countries like slovakia and austria have a reliance on russian supplies, so potentially they can get a russian gas on the eastern border of ukraine and arrange transportation independently. lizzy: is the market pricing of the uncertainty? >> i would say a complete cut off would trigger gas price spikes has markets remain sensitive to any supply losses. european gas prices have come down quite significantly over the past six months and are getting closer to pre-energy crisis levels. this is on the back of record high gas storage levels across europe as the region is already

exited the winter season. looking at the forward curve winter gas prices are lower for the next winter compared to the biggest one. still remaining historically high. as europe became more reliant on global lng, it has to compete with asian markets as well. lizzy: really interesting. we thank you for that. coming up next, a crucial conversation. we speak to the morgan stanley chief joining us from a forum in italy. this is bloomberg. ♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss

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♪ lizy: good morning.

this is bloomberg daybreak europe in london. under precious stocks in asia follow the u.s. lower ahead of the crucial jobs report. neil kashk ar is saying that it is getting closer to the target. israel greece for a new aid group after a warning from president biden brent pushing above $90 a barrel for the first time since october. plus, we'll brick you our exclusive interview with javier melei as he turns from hard liner to pragmatist. it's the moment you've been waiting for. could this report deliver the market the goldy locks scenario where there's no excuse but to cut rates but you still have a labor market that's not taking too serious. that's what markets are looking

for. could we see an unemployment that balances the fed into cutting rates in may? we'll talk about that next. in the meantime, we were talking to even more fed speech. we heard from kashk ari and mester. future side they are talking about it. futures are down 1.4%. you have the two-year treasury yield at 3.3%. the dollar is a touch high y. and copper rallying to the highest in 14 months so extending the gains that started in february. this really a billion weather industrial metal appear it's in response to the rising supply risks. so but let's get back to the fed

and the impact on the markets. stocks in asia have been lower today following on from that 1.2% dropping yesterday's s&p session this is ahead of the jobs report later today. and the flight to the safest corners of the market. joining us now is morgan stanley and ellen joining us from italy. lovely to see you, ellen with the beautiful lake como behind you. how lucky are we to have you on u.s. jobs day. ellen: i wish you were here with me. lizzy: me too. what unemployment numbers are you looking for to get the fed to cut the rates in may? >> so i think it's going to be more about inflation if the fed were to cut as early as may. i think the bar is very high for them to go that soon, though. but i do still expect them to be

ready by june. for the employment report we're expecting another big number around 245,000. even if it comes in at 100, 150,000, they'll say it's just one print. we're going to look at the unemployment rate. i think if we get a very strong jobs number, we're going to keep the unemployment rate at 3.9% because so many people are coming into the labor market. and you're going to get wage pressures that are coming off. when you talk about a goldy locks scenarios that's going to be a report that says the economy is still strong but it's not something that gives a definitive signal to the fed that they need to cut very soon here. lizzy: it's a bigger economy not a tighter one. thanks to immigration. but you've put the neutral jobs rate of growth at 265,000 a month. why is the estimate of 1,000,000 -- 100,000 wrong?

>> look, i had an estimate of 100,000 just six months ago. essential we've gotten new data. this is something that economists have to deal with. we have gotten significantly upwards revision to faster population growth. it means faster growth in the economy and the labor market. it means that you're going to have a higher break even level for employment the amount of jobs you need to create in order to give the numbers steady. this is something that the chair has been focused on since later last year. 2023 was all about improving supply chains and labor supply. 2024 extends that improvement where the growth and the population is just that strong. and so this is a real supply side story that is supporting growth in the economy without creating inflationary pressures. >> i want to come back to where rates will go in a moment. but just is staying on

immigration, ellen. it's going to back key issue in the u.s. election if you get trump 2.0. what sort of economic impact are you expecting? >> so i do think that this puts the administration in a sticky spot because according to our surveys, households list immigration as the second most concern just behind inflation. yet from an economists just objective lens on the economy faster population growth drives faster growth in the economy. and so is it a positive for the u.s. economy. it's been a positive for u.s. jobs gain. it's a above for u.s. consumption. but immigration itself is a hot button political issue. i think focus on just the economic benefits from it will be something that -- that needs to be separated on the campaign trail. >> but then what tas flip side of that if you have less immigration could inflation

strike again? ellen: well, i think that there is a question mark out there as to how much do immigrants contribute to inflation in the economy? now, the sus very different than other economies where we have low skilled labor coming inle they're helping fill jobs, positions that are open where we need labor. and they come in at low wage paying service sector areas of the economy that help bring wage pressures down. so that tends to not be inflationary in the u.s. that is very unlike countries like our neighbor canada where they have very high skilled immigration coming in. 30% of their labor market is unionized. those are high-skilled labor. there's a lot of ininflationary pressures that come through that. so the u.s. is quite different there. that said, it's more of an economic growth rather than inflation problem if you were to have a shift in policy, you have

a big drop off in immigration. and suddenly you have a very big slowdown in population growth. then that is more of a growth narrative dampening growth and dampening inflation so immigration is neither here nor three. it's neither inflationary or deflationary for the immigration that we have today. but if we were to suddenly turn that off then you would have an impact on inflation as well. lij: we were listening to janet yellen speaking in china. she's talking about the chinese overproduction creating distortions. do you agree that concern? ellen: so i think that there's -- there's -- this has been a lingering concern across many at minutes ministrations that it's all about the global balance of supply and demand. and there is a risk always when a country like china that is so big, export what is they call

product dumping, exports what they call product dumping, deflation or creates unfair competition, unfair advantage. and this is something that many administrations have been focused on. it's something that will be front and center during a u.s. election year. and so i think this is something where the administration is there out in front of it reminding folks that we do have a hard stance on china. lizzy: your in the beautiful lake como area in italy. if the e.c.b. cuts before the fed, how much -- how much diver generals would be a problem? -- divergane would that be a problem? >> not everyone agrees that rates will be appropriate this year. but all but one believe that we

will cut rates this year in the u.s. and so that market expectation of about three cuts this year, i think is in line with the feds' view and what the feds think they will deliver. we expect them to speed up cuts in the fourth year of the year because we have inflation coming down faster than the fed. but i don't think the timing of when central banks globally are cutting is really going to be an issue for the fed. markets already have cuts priced in as an expectation. lizzy: the last thing any central banker in the world wants to do is to reverse cause. who do you think is most at risk of a u-turn? ellen: well, i think that you know, the fed has -- has communicated that it will cut. it's likely to cut. real rates are already quite restrictive. you don't want them to get

further restrictive so the risk is if inflation doesn't fall. if this immigration story provides so much strength in the economy and it starts to become inflationary. it's reversing course since we were sent to cut and we're not going to cut. the bar is too high to get to a point where they're going to be willing to hike again. there is -- there is that risk that kashkari that they don't cut at all. i don't see any data that they should not stay on this cutting track. >> interesting. you're going to be meeting your colleagues from around the world. ellen, what's the most economic challenge that is keeping you at night? >> so i do think it's these -- i keep coming back to immigration. i cannot think about the u.s. without talking about immigration. it's front and center because

these are tectonic shifts that we're seeing with different conversations globely i was having conversations about colleagues with the bank of english. i mentioned canada earlier. i also think we do have to keep an eye on china. china has not done as much stimulus as our economists there had been calling for. you need targeted stimulus toward chinese households in order to stimulate that side of the economy. and of course, if you get into a debt deflation cycle in china that is going to impact the global economy. lizy: lovely to speak you today. lovely to get your thoughts especially on immigration, its impact on inflation on the fed rate path from here. that's ellen zetner at the ambrosetti forum in lake como. we're going to have plenty more

interviews there late in the morning. we'll have conversations with tina fordham and nerio rubinni. we'll have an exclusive interview with javier milei as he strikes a more pragmatic tone on china after previously calling the country an assist sin what a change of evens. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe, now the argentinean president is striking a more pragmatic tone when it comes to china. just six months ago he threatened to curb ties calling the nation an assist sin. but he spoke with our editor in

chief and he changed his tune. [speaking in spanish] >> as for the chinese government what we've always said is that we are libertarians. and if people want to do business with china, they can carry on business as you are. what i said is i wouldn't be aligning with communists. and that's precisely one of the things. who did i say i was going to align with? the united states and israel. do you have any doubt that that's my alignment with the united states and israel. >> i'll come back to the united states and israel in a moment. but now as you know in argentina, the focus is on a chinese space station in patagonia that your predecessor allowed to get built. they said that the space station has military purposes. will you close it down?

>> well, the point is this. negotiations are ordered to inspect that because the chinese say that is not the case so we will move towards the situation. we will be looking at that. so that is not a problem either. >> is the factor in in the fact that you have that $18 billion currency swap line china which you do need? you need it for the reserves of the central bank. it's a big portion. does that influence influence your thinking on china? >> that situation has to do with an agreement that was enter into and has to do with the trade exchanges between countries. i won't modify trade exchanges because i think their trade exchanges between privates just as we have a part in our central bank, they have of course, their federal bank counter part. i don't see a problem. and honestly, the trade

relations haven't changed. not a problem. >> problem would be if i was the chinese government and you call me an assist sass sin. i must be less key to renew the currency line. >> have trade relations changed? they haven't. not one bit. that is counter-factual, there's no truth. >> argentinean president speak there with our exclusively editor in chief. and that interview forms the basis of today's bloomberg's big take on the argentinean president's softer take on china. let's bring in jill. >> this to me sounds like a moderation of his stance on china before he was elected. how is beijing been playing this relationship? jill: yes, well, lizy, i think what you're seeing there is milei coming to term that many

in south america and bolsonaro in brazil knowing that china is incredibly important. you heard john cite that $18 billion swap line. that tease largest source of foreign reserves in argentina central bank's copper certainly one that you cannot ignore orator peedo on the harder line stance. it's important to note that china has been building these inroads in argentina and south america. you've seen that materialize in the form of really important export lines when it comes to food and agriculture and lithium which is incredibly important for china to build out the battery output. you're seeing this come into play with f.x. you're seeing this come into play with all kinds of economic issues. not a relationship that

argentina can really shy away from. >> exactly why janet yellen said you can want decouple from china. >> how important is argentina to china in its broader investments in latin america? >> argentina is really important to china. just a couple of years ago in 2022, argentina signed to the belton road initiative. this is the proposal to create all of these major economic and trade links. china had intended for europe to get involved in that as well. hasn't been as successful so it's become an important part with how china has built up a lot of influence in the global south that's where that comes into play. but then yes, ultimately, as we were just talking about trade when it comes to china in argentina is incredibly important. china needs soy beans from argentina to help feed its pig stock. lithium trade is incredibly important as it feeds into

batteries and advanced tech. big economic ties for china to consider there as well. lizz on: thank you for. that we'll have much more from that exclusive conversation between bloomberg's john nickelwaith and the president of argentina milei. subscribe can get more right now at nibigtake go. and for some other stories, bloomberg has learned that senior u.s. officials plan to visit the netherlands to pressure the government to toughen the curb with china. including urging the netherlands to stop asml for repairing chip-making equipment. a proxy advisory firm is telling shareholder to warn against

goldenman sax. the bank had boosted c.e.o. david solomon's pay by 24% to $31 million in a year where the bank easternings plunged in a similar amount. and georgieva poised for a second term. no other candidates put forward. the fund says its 24-member board will hold meeting with her and the aid -- same to complete the process by tend of april. joe lewis, the 87 year-old british billionaire who plead guilty to insider trading has been spared jail time by a federal judge in new york. he was sentenced to three years probation and a $5 million type. any incarceration would be quite catastrophic. he passed share tips to a

private pilot and a girlfriend. we'll have plenty more still on the program. stay with us. this is bloomberg. >>

♪ >> i still think if you take a longer arc inflation is coming down and we're going to get to 2%. >> we're not where we need to be. inflation is still too high particularly for the asset limited communities and income contained. if you think of food, shelter, transportation cost, still too high. we're working -- but it's coming down. and it's coming down in a way where it's still creating jobs in america. >> wouldn't say they're off the table, but they're not a likely scenario given what we know right now if we continue to see strong job growth if we continue

to see strong consumer spending and strong g.d.p. growth, then that raise as question in my mind, well, why would we cut rates? >> so lots more fed speak first digest there, crucially kasshkai saying there could be no rate cuts. the fed is close to confidence level to cut rates. also in the data as well. we've got the jobs report coming later. traders very confused. look at the measure of volatility. it's at a one-year high as you can see on this chart. why so much volatility at the moment? why so much volatility as we head into the jobs report? well, the numbers have been confusing. the last three months has seen 200 jobs added. the unemployment rate has moved to a two-year high. so it's a mixed message about the strength of the jobs market if you get unemployment at 4%

could it balance fed into a cut? we will watch that number later on today. the crucial economic data of the week. we've got plenty more for you to come. nato secretary general is going to join the surveillance team following the alliances summit. that is at 12:30 uk time. but up next, guy will be waiting for you next. this is bloomberg.

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>> good morning. this is bloomberg markets. the cash trade just less than an hour away. this is what you need to know. stocks in asia ol