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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  March 27, 2024 8:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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>> this is "daybreak asia." we are counting down to asia's major market openings. if the latest boj meeting minutes are anything to go by, we could see a little more weakness to come in the currency. haidi: it certainly does not change the narrative that the bank of japan is not in a hurry. they are cautioned and not wanting to take this too quickly. it feels more than ever that lift off is more symbolic than anything. you could argue this was the messaging they wanted to get across the entire time, not create too many ripples.
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we have seen an extraordinary level of weakness for the yen. annabelle: absolutely. perhaps they wanted to get the messaging across. it has been truly interpreted by the markets. some key headlines to recap out of the meeting minutes from march. at least one boj more member -- board member -- there is the need for a cautious policy stance. no need for rapid rate increases. the market reaction, you are not seeing the yen move too much. yesterday is slid to a 34-year low. that did spark some -- japanese officials that if you keep this up they will be acting forcefully. the risk of intervention, we were speaking with michael wilson about it, perhaps it could be monday morning when a lot of traders are away from
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their desk. stocks-wise, the nikkei coming under some pressure. not tracking what we had in wall street overnight. we saw the s&p 500 rallying and hitting a fresh record high. let's shift on. the story of korea is a different thing we are tracking. we had a ftse russell overnight seeing they would hold off adding south korea and india to their key bond indexes. that is a decision that will be in place for the next six months until the next review. south korea -- to its watchlist for possible inclusion in september of 2022. the move could draw a lot of currencies or money, as much as $70 billion. a little bit of pressure coming through so far, perhaps the headlines we got out of the fed governor also playing into that given he really stressed the need for caution when it comes
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to expectations around rate cuts from the fed. haidi: we are seeing may be a little bit of a quieter session given we are about to head into the easter weekend. it does look like we are heading into the four-day weekend on a high. we see stocks in australia hitting a fresh record high. we are seeing that being driven by good gains across real estate shares. this would be the second quarterly advance for the benchmark,. just shy of 4%. . this comes after a pretty good lead for wall street traders. new zealand, not much of a change for the index. the aussie dollar at 65.21 -- .6521. we are seeing aussie bonds gaining. treasury futures heading lower
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in the early part of the asian session. a bit of reaction to the fed governor talking about the fact there is no rush to lower interest rates calling the inflation figures disappointing. he said he wants to see a few months of better inflation data. it does come down to the data dependence once again. annabelle: it is also that differential we see between the fed and the boj. let's get more on that with our executive editor for asian markets, paul dobson. given the difference from the boj and the fed, is there anything that can be done to arrest the yen weakness at this point in time? paul: yes, there is plenty that can be done but will anyone do it? we have had strong warnings about direct intervention in the market.
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that will knowledge the yen stronger again -- nudge the yen stronger again. big interest rate differentials. we could get direct intervention. until we get to a point where the fed is ready to start counting on the others of the pond. sometimes currency markets can really be a pain for policymakers. imagine if you are the boj and you spent 15 years nourishing carefully, inflation, you get to the point where you can lift interest rates of zero and then the currency market is making your life uncomfortable. not because it is running away to the upside because of the hikes but more because it is doubting how fast you will go and what that will do to the inflationar outlookly.
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there could be some murmurs it might be inclined to raise rates faster or more aggressively. we heard a hint of that after the press conference yesterday. on the whole, they do not want to do anything that could blow up the inflation that they finally managed to get filtering through the economy after all that long time working on it. haidi: the issue is there is not much at this point we can foresee that would fundamentally change how wide the gap is. paul: nothing that would fundamentally change it. it is a bit of a waiting game. the boj and the mof will help the u.s. will begin cutting interest rates. it is not just the yen, it is asia's currency in general that are under pressure from the stronger dollar. we have the weakest levels since november for a whole bunch of currencies.
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look at korea and indonesia. in china, the exchange rate is under a lot of pressure, as well. it is not a uniquely japan thing. the yen has stabilized a little bit over the past few days, although it is exceptionally weak overall, as well. yes, the fact of the matter is on the yen crossed with interest rate gap so wide and flows heading toward the u.s., it is difficult for us to see a sustained turnaround in direction at this moment in time. if you are an fx trader and you believe the yen will strengthen, enable to own opposition, you have to sacrifice the interest rate differential. what you give up means you have to see a pretty huge appreciation in the yen for you to get your money back. annabelle: we are just about 10
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minutes into the session for asian equities. . we are a little bit under pressure. not referencing the moves we saw with wall street overnight. do you think that traders are taking these comments that the fed governor set about the need for caution on rate cuts quite seriously? paul: it is a possibility. i think he has some sway. we certainly saw a notch lower for treasury futures. in japan, if i'm right, the market might have some headline impacts on some of the market metrics, as well. everything will be a little bit funny going toward the end of the fiscal year in japan. wait until the whole of asia gets going to get a further readout. it is the story of u.s. exceptionalism and the rest of
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the world is doing ok but u.s. equities continue to go from strength to strength. haidi: paul dobson. president xi jinping has made a direct pitch to u.s. ceos. he met with executives in beijing. >> the respective successes of china and the u.s. are opportunities for each other. as long as both sides regarding other as partners, respect each other, live in peace and cooperate for win-win results, u.s. and china relations will become better. haidi: let's bring in our reporter in beijing. confidence was what president xi was trying to convey. he was preaching to the choir in many ways to his audience. >> we see a lot of people in
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attendance who were also at the san francisco dinner in november. in many ways, i think people are reading this as a continuation of the stability that was established in the continued conversation. yes, he did make the pitch to invest in china and set a few things about the domestic economy. he said china will not collapse because of the china collapse theory and it will not peak because of the china peak theory. he said china was implementing but planning comprehensive reform. that is something analysts have tried to read into and wondered what it could hint at. we are looking forward to see if there are really those new reforms that businesses and investors are looking to for a boost in the economy. annabelle: we know that apple
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ceo tim cook has been among those traveling to china for these new events. there is a new store in shanghai. what have we heard from other ceos and apple about a broader willingness to invest in the country? lucille: i think the big message from the ceo side was commitment. there are a lot of ceos going on stage and seeing how they are committed to the country. some of them are heaping praise. tim cook saying he loves china, the chinese people, it is a dynamic place. other ceos saying things like china has been doing like the 24 measures and the new data rules are encouraging. we are seeing a lot of positive messages but i think the big question is, how sustainable is this, especially as we head into the november elections? are people willing to invest
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because there are a few months of stability and positive energy in this relationship? annabelle: that was our chinese economy reporter. a fresh test of the city's appeal for big events. we speak exclusively to charles stewart later this hour. up next, we are live to the boao forum, asking the asian development bank about the ambitious growth target. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's get back to china's annual boao forum. let's get back to stephen engle who is standing by with our next guest. stephen: scott morris is a vice president. thank you so much for joining us this early morning. the two big themes that are being discussed is not just the chinese slowing economy and new priorities, there is belt
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tightening at the reform commission. at the same time going into new industries, the new big three. also, climate initiatives is a big push at boao. on the other is the geopolitical tug-of-war between east and west. how does it change the way you look at lending and risk mitigation? scott: it is good to be with you. i guess what i would like to emphasize is we have been very busy in the last year, defining rendition as the region's climate bank. we are focused on what that looks like, how do we respond to client countries across the region. china is a big part of that equation. they are a big shareholder of adb.
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we are trying to answer the questions of, how do we match the scale of ambition that is needed and how do we deploy our resources? this is a region that is driving emissions right now. a majority of climate emissions are coming from asia. in equal turn, it is the region arguably most exposed to the challenges of climate. we see that in the increased frequency of natural disasters and the degree to which we have to respond with crisis support when these disasters happen. it is this twofold challenge for us. what we have done as a start is again to define our finance ambitions. we have committed to deploy 100 million dollars of our own resources in the current decade. with the idea this will bring
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along a lot of other money, particularly private-sector money. stephen: what percentage of that would be toward green projects? we -- will be speaking to the president of the aib. they have reached the target of 50% of lending being in green finance, they already reached 60% last year. scott: aib has become an important partner for us in this agenda. it is about a balance. as an institution that has been active in the region for decades, these countries still have other core development needs. we aim to be there for them to address all these issues, including social sector issues like education and health. that is where we need to focus, how do we change the cost benefit these things? we are actively investing in
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green. part of the story, frankly, is how do we accelerate decommissioning? how do we change the profile of existing assets? we have important pilot projects going on, starting with indonesia, where we are trying to create a financial structure that works for private -- holding these assets and retire them early? that is particularly challenging. to do that alongside active investments in solar, hydro and wind, there is a lot of activity right now. we are a key part of that. stephen: how difficult is it to navigate the geopolitical headwinds? we said janet yellen will be heading to beijing. she will hammer home the subsidies issue she feels the chinese government is giving to the green space into the new big three, if you will, energy
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vehicles, batteries and solar, and there are allegations of subsidies and dumping. that potentially opens another front with the bifurcation between china and the u.s., geopolitically. how does that impact you and the bank in terms of finding funding in two countries that perhaps have to pick sides? scott: two things. we are a multilateral institution owned by governments. our three biggest owners -- japan, u.s., china. within the institution, we do not see a lot of daylight between their positions on this issue of core mandate. the desire for us to do a lot more on climate. they are speaking this and language. that is very good. but you are right. there are these major conflicts between these countries. for us, it is about keeping a focus on the need of our
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clients. weather disruptions and supply chains, that is a problem, it also creates opportunities for many of our country's he want to position themselves differently on the value chain. we work with them to make that a reality. at the end of the day, we want to see rapid deployment and falling prices on clean technologies. that is a core message of ours. it is a worry that these conflicts could slow the pace of deployment, or raise costs more than we would like to see. we do have a message about pro engagement. let's work through these conflicts when they arise. and again on behalf of the climate agenda and the development agenda, let's try to x on the right the pace as much as possible -- let's try to
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accelerate the pace and get -- stephen: something china has been pushing. scott morris, thank you for your time on bloomberg television. come back and join us again. scott: i would love to. annabelle: that was our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle joining us. we will have more interviews ahead from china's boao forum. up next joining us in about 10 minutes, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> major property developers in china are releasing earnings. country garden very much in focus.
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it could report steeper losses. let's bring in our bloomberg intelligence senior analyst, patrick. the signals are not great for this company. could there be any surprises to come through in the numbers? patrick: it is challenging. after that, it is a long holiday. over the past couple of weeks, we have seen results. we could see the margin from the public sales. sales momentum last year. it is also impacting dividends. i think it is a bit challenging for most of the companies. they are reporting earnings.
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it may be really challenging. haidi: country garden is apparently carrying out liquidation analysis. what is the significance of that from an earnings standpoint? patrick: country garden, it is worse than others in the sense they are more focused -- smaller cities, it is also impacting momentum. if you look at the potential risk. that is another thing impacting it. definitely i think we could see that for country garden, they could also see sales momentum weakening. this year we have seen it. looking forward, sales may drop 40% year-over-year. we did not see much improvement.
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liquidity is an issue. annabelle: data developers seem to be in a position -- that perception has been tested of late. is there any divergence we are expecting between public and private companies with these numbers? patrick: the interesting point, you see the recent results. improvement in terms of recurring income. income from shopping malls, something that can offset some of the sales with this. recurring income -- that may also be a challenging situation.
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haidi: bloomberg intelligence senior analyst, patrick. taking a look at corporate headlines. life insurance profit fell 31% last year as the stock market hurt investment returns. the income dropped to $6.4 billion from $9.2 billion a year earlier. a 23% profit drop. ubs will lease a 14 story building in hong kong. helping provide confidence for a city battling to keep its status as the region's premier financial hub. it is being developed. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business.
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haidi: you are watching "daybreak. retail sales rising .3% month on month. that is a little softer than expectations of .4%. we are seeing credit numbers, consumers rising 5% on the year, .5% month on month. we have had some conflicting data points coming up with the australian economy. we had some stronger-than-expected labor market data. the softening in the consumer sector has been evident given the spring of rate hikes and a lot of pressure when it comes to the cost of living crisis. the aussie dollar, not too much of a reaction. let's get back to china's annual
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boao forum with stephen engle, who is standing by with our next guest. stephen: thanks a lot, haidi. we are pleased to have the chairman and president of the aiib, jin liqun. thank you so much for joining us. a lot of discussion has been talked about here at the boao forum with the pace of growth and about new quality development in china. how does that impact china as the biggest benefactor to the aiib, the founding member? how does that impact your lending plans? jin: the theme of the boao conference 2024 is a common challenge and shared responsibility. i can hear the day before
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yesterday and attended a couple meetings. you will find people focused on cooperation in dealing with the common challenge, particularly climate change. how do we deal with this threat to human society? infrastructure investment bank is a multilateral development bank initiated by china. the support of 57 members. now we have 109. yes, china is a big shareholder. china's role is to contribute to the building up of institution created the 21st century. this institution must operate by international best practice. it must be based on international governance. this is key. i think china would be very happy to see that through
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working together with other groups, we can promote common prosperity, reduce poverty, promote connectivity, promote all countries to achieve economic integration on a regional or global basis. stephen: do you feel there is a need for greater transparency in the aiib? there was an investigation launched about the aiib. i do not mean to put you on the spot but is that part of the growth of your bank? jin: we are transparent. we have a board with 12 members on the board. as you know, european countries have combined voting power, which is more than 25%. for special majority, we need
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2/3 of the members and 3/4 of the voting power for any major policies. if we do not operate to high standards, if we do anything that deviates from the main course of managing the development issues by this institution, the european countries and other countries will say no. this has never happened. we adhere to the international best practices. stephen: how are the geopolitics affecting what is a cornerstone of your lending, the climate action plan, which essentially laid out a target of 50% of your committed lending spending by next year would be in green finance. you surpassed that last year, 60%. how have the geopolitics with the new big three, new energy
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vehicles, batteries, solar, becoming a political hot potato? jin: geopolitics have always been here in this world. what is important for today's world, particularly for major powers, is to deal with geopolitics in a way that would not detract people's attention from dealing with the main threats. i think, for instance, big countries can talk to each other , lowering the temperature. when we are faced with a common challenge, a common challenge that would pose a serious threat to the security, safety of the people across the world, we have all the reason to work together to deal with the common threat rather than be bogged down in the issues of so-called geopolitics.
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we are working in close collaboration with adb. when we provide financing for climate change mitigation adaptation, everyone should be supportive. we are talking about, for instance yesterday, i attended a business roundtable. we all understand, we all highlight the point that there is a broad scope for cooperation. in particular, dealing with climate change. stephen: there is a concern in the u.s. about excess capacity of green products that could be exported to the u.s. as dumping. janet yellen will be here next week, she will bring that issue up. is there excess capacity? jin: let us ask the question -- have we done enough to deal with climate change? in terms of financing? operating technology?
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approving the efficiency of so panels and wind power? have we done enough? i don't think so. china has been investing in renewable energy ever since the paris agreement was reached in 2015. before aiib was up and running. . our trading partners can sit down to work this out. i speak this not as a chinese national but as the president of an institution, china has been doing a lot to promote renewable energy and they should be done by all of the countries in this world. stephen: did you see the lowy institute report? china has only delivered 1/3 of its spending commitments through the belt and rode commitment.
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also the thai to china railway. big, $1 billion-plus projects that need financing but get bogged down in local politics, does this change the way you look at risk? jin: for the belt and road project, there is clear guidance from the leader, president xi. shared responsibility, shared benefit. broad-based consultation, joint investment, share responsibility. this is what all of the participating countries should do. we at aiib are committed to promoting connectivity that would benefit the countries who would invest in this area.
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i have seen with my own eyes how our investment has produced positive results in this country. for instance, let me tell you, he supported me with rooftop renewable energy. very, very important. we also provide financing for subway system in india. to reduce the driving of the individual cars. our idea is regardless of geopolitical issues and difference between countries, we stay the course of promoting connectivity, broad-based infrastructure, development and for the sole purpose of benefiting the people. stephen: how do you read xi jinping's push for new forces?
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disinvesting in dirtier industries and those the provinces have relied on and maybe there is overcapacity? jin: i think new productive forces, my interpretation is to develop the productive forces in the high-tech ai and all those areas, including for instance probably -- bioscience. new productive force mean something on a higher level than the traditional manufacturing capability. this is vitally important for a country like china. i believe this indicates chinese growth would be moving forward on a different kind of level. i think it is very interesting.
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china has proposed this idea. i am studying this and i try to understand better. i see how china can continue to support global development, particularly in member countries. stephen: jin liqun, thank you so much for your time on bloomberg television. i appreciate it. jin: thank you so much. stephen: back to you from boao. annabelle: more ahead. . that was stephen engle with the aiib president. we will have more coming up at the forum. we will be speaking at -- a quick check on markets. we are heading through the morning session. a bit of weakness creeping through. it is after we had governor from the fed saying there is no hurry
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to cut. we are seeing some moves higher in yields. we have dollar strength coming through. continuing to watch the yen weakness. holding above the 1.51 mark. australia standing out. something else to -- approaching many of the markets. up next, hong kong officially opens its doors to the public. we speak to charles stewart about consumption in greater china. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: hong kong officially opens its doors, putting the strength of the chinese consumer to test and painting a picture of demand in 2024. we have a preview. >> art basel is back but are the buyers? exhibitors who set up shop for the five-day long fair hope so. members of galleries showcasing work are up by 1/3 from 2023, matching the fair's pre-pandemic scale. >> we have more than 240 galleries. we are up 37%.
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we are seeing international audiences once again back in hong kong from all over the world, especially in asia. there have been a number of pre-sales, which is exciting. >> according to ubs, global our sales eased after two years of growth, slipping to around $65 billion. in china, so far the appetite for luxury art has held up. it is the second largest art market globally after the u.s. and the only major market to show an uptick in value over the course of 2023. >> the economy has clearly softened so there is no mistaking that. there are opportunities we feel to bring activity into the centralized -- at moments like art basel. >> it is more than just art for hong kong. the city is navigating a consumption and tourism slump
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with so-called mega events like art basel will revive retail spending. >> the art market community is clearly invested here and we are, as well. collectively we will see the benefits this week and in the future. annabelle: this will be a make or break year for the hong kong world. joining us exclusively is charles stewart, the ceo of souther's be -- sotheby's. at the same time, we are seeing some signs that hong kong's issues are pretty well flagged, a lot of economic weakness and you have signs of softening in the chinese art market. why are you making this commitment at this moment in time? charles: no matter what you might say about this particular moment, cyclical pressure is well documented, there is also no doubt that this is a very long-term exciting area of
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growth. we still see that. at sotheby's, we have had three years consecutively at over $1 billion of sales here in hong kong. annabelle: to get the number of sales, you have pushed through some cuts. what kind of impact is that having on your revenue? charles: i would not say we have pushed through fee cuts across the board, we have published our fees in transparent ways. it is true for buyers used to pay as much as 27% buyers premium, that is a flat 20%. we think that will stimulate additional demand along with transparency for sellers. this is part of trying to bring broader audiences into our ecosystem, along with the opening of our concept in hong
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kong, which will be present every day. haidi: when you talk about expectations of having an impact, have you seen much of a difference already from the fee cut? charles: it goes into effect next month. we will see it in the second half of the year. the reception to it has been uniformly positive because for buyers, paying lower fees is only a positive. there is a clear understanding that we are promoting transparency, access and greater participation in the art market through these moves. annabelle: i wanted to get your thoughts on what happened with the option, which came as a lot of -- came as a shock to a lot of people. haidi: do you see that as being a one-time occurrence? what did you learn from that experience? charles: i would say we did sell
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the highest value western painting in asia during that sale last year. there were clearly some bright spots, as well. the fourth quarter is when we saw a degree of movement in the markets, globally. that is not just an asia or china comment. there was some affect. but one of the things we are seeing is we talk a lot about buyers and a lot about concern about the market. we are a two-sided marketplace. we are about volumes. you can see sellers coming to market who have not come previously. it is about volumes for us. overall our sellthrough rates are not just healthy, they are strong. annabelle: which ones are you
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focusing on building? charles: first of all for us, we sell across 50 different apartments. we think about luxury categories, cars, jewelry, watches, collectibles. we have handbags. we have an exclusive arrangement with the national basketball association to sell game-worn collectibles. there is demand for that here in asia. as we see convergence of taste among art, luxury and lifestyle. annabelle: expanding sotheby's through a listing, would you be exploring an ipo? would you be looking to sell all or part of the company? charles: there is no plan to sell the company or any ipo.
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we are happy as a private company. we have a strong shareholder who is passionate and committed to the business and that is a real benefit and source of strength for us. that is not something we are evaluating now. who knows what the future holds but it is not in the plans currently. haidi: i was wondering if you could give us an indication in terms of how much confidence there is for buyers and sellers in terms of private transactions? charles: sure. we have two main sales channels. we still well over $1 billion per year in our private transactions but also online sales, e-commerce, retail, i think we will see significant growth in those more fixed-price channels perhaps. private sales have been strong. in moments of uncertainty, private sales tend to do better because buyers and souther's
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value speed, discretion, certainty. those are all points of support for the private sales market. we are seeing strength on both sides. i am here this week in part because we are opening our sales in hong kong next week. we have 21 sales next week, well over 3000 objects we will bring to market and sell across a lot of categories. we will see good activity and auctions. >> that was charles stewart, the ceo of sotheby's. we will have more ahead on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's talk a little bit about the ev sector and how that is one of the biggest areas we are focusing on, particularly in light of the u.s.-china tensions in terms of how much the subsidies have helped these players. making a debut in what is already a brutally competitive ev market, they are set to unveil the first ev on the back of what has been a blistering $8 billion stock rally. it is a smartphone making giant with its first electric vehicle
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on thursday. this is unfamiliar and intensely competitive market. the su7 series is a result of a $10 billion venture entering a market dominated by players like byd and a likes of tesla. annabelle: it is fascinating when you think about the industry approaches we are seeing particularly in china's ev space. when you think about being a smartphone maker, we saw apple very famously axing its decade-long effort to build a car. vehicle related shares jumping ahead of that lunch. that is it from "daybreak asia." our coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trading in hong kong and shanghai. ♪ starting a business is never easy,
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