♪ >> good morning, i'm tom mackenzie. investors look ahead to a busy

week including the fed gauge of inflation. japan's currency official warns against speculative moves. oil snaps a three day losing streak and iron ore holds its best gain since september on china optimism. a day of mourning and russia after the death toll from the terrorist attack reaches 137. france raises its security alert following the attack claimed by the islamic state. we do check in on the markets. a muted finish on friday, and

catherine man, a hawk on the need for a recent hike will be giving a speech. central bankers in focus. ftse futures at 7000. s&p futures are flat. 459 is the two year yield. is now the time to add? emphasis on ensuring damage done in the labor market. our the federal reserve shifting away? the two-year at 459. verbal intervention from

japanese officials. currently 151 on the yen. geopolitics are a factor. central bank cuts could support commodity markets. prices are higher on the iron. 8% gains. how asian markets are faring. avril: risk aversion this monday as last week was dovish and sent stocks higher. today is a pullback.

this is a lot to do with the boj. fear of missing out by traders. investors betting the japanese revival would help equities. today there is profit-taking in japan and as the currency strengthens, let's take a closer look in china. the chinese premier talked about property stimulus and saying there could be optimization to revive demand.

earning scorecards from property developers and country garden could highly weakness in the sector. as we got the yen fix, strongest estimates since november. signal from the central bank is they were not comfortable with the weakness last friday, sending the yen closer toward 720. flip the board, and spread signal what traders see as direction for the yen. offshore is cheapest in more than a yeah, and they see further weakness. looking at the japanese currency, we saw it weaken last week.

the verbal intervention from the top official, the most robust comments are helping the yen strength in toward 151. but many markets, liquidity is expected to be light and data is due. we could need more to get ahead of things. tom: 151.21 on the yen. thank you, joining us out of singapore. atlanta fed president bostick projects one rate cut, later than expected. he had said it would be appropriate to cut rates twice beginning in the summer. more from bloomberg's executive

editor for asian markets. is he out the cold? jay powell seems dovish. what is your take away with the fed? >> good morning. the comments have to be taken in the context of cuts. he may be talking about later in the year, slower pace, but they will cut if the dater allows it. we have a central bank willing to cut and people are not worried. they said maybe no cuts at all this year. the market seems happy to tolerate that.

no big changes in the dot plots. the market is looking for interest rates. switch the focus to talk about jobs data. that gives the fed a caveat to move. lower rates on the horizon. tom: how are the markets interpreting the messages from the boe, ecb, s&p? is the take that doves are in control? paul: it feels like they fired the starting gun. it is the same mentality and noise traders are hearing.

at the top of the show, people betting on short-term interest rates relative to long-term. maybe we can undo the yield curve. the market has been wrong several times. a stopped clock trade will be right eventually. this is volatility sliding, credit spreads type and exuberance in equities, so everyone happy. easing underway and there's reasons to be cheerful. tom: excellent wrap, paul

dobson, thank you. now to what unfolded in moscow, four men are charged with a terrorist attack at a concert hall in which 100 37 people were killed. tony halper joins us. islamic state same the carried out the attack, but russia insists the ukraine was involved. >> good morning. in any functioning government you expect security officials, but vladimir putin pointed the finger at ukraine and cast moscow as linked to the war.

no mention of islamic state even though they have declared they are the ones responsible, showing elements of the attack taking place and islamic state is responsible. so far we have not seen a change in messaging even though men have been detained and are in custody. they do not appear to have connections to ukraine. tom: is it your assessment that the kremlin has taken its eyes off the ball of the ices threat? is there risk to putin and his government? tony: the u.s. said they take issue or warning and passed on details to russian authorities.

putin dismissed that in a meeting with officials before the attack. he has a firm grip on power in the kremlin engineered years for him at the election, but it feeds into cynicism that the russian state was focused on prosecuting the war. this is a sobering moment because they have not seen anything on this scale since 2002. that is bringing back dark memories and they do not have answers. tom: you've written about that in great detail. worth reading about, but

spurious links from this attack, in ukraine, what should you be worried about? is russia preparing retaliation? tony: ukrainians president and other officials have made it clear they think this is a false flag operation, they had nothing to do with this and are not linked. russia since the election has stepped up attacks and appears to be intensifying strikes so that makes people worry, now that putin is justifying public

support for a course of action. tom: bloomberg's tony with the context of the of vents. the outskirts of moscow and what that could mean. thank you indeed. france raised its security alert to the highest in the decision is justified given islamic state claimed responsibility. it allows for the paralympic games in the summer. here is what else to be thinking about through this week. on wednesday the riksbank will come through with their decision. when he think about the property market under pressure, on friday

is the personal consumption expenditures index. it is the preferred gauge on inflation. we're going to be hearing from jay powell as well, market holiday on friday in the u.s., but he will be speaking at a san francisco event. he doubles down on dovish comments from last week. this week, china's megabanks will report and country garden coming out with data points for china's economy. hearing from the premier saying things are not as bad as suggested.

declining to rule out consequences for israel if it invades rafah. more on the warning next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. vice president harris declined consequences for israel if it invades a gaza city. more than one million people are sheltering in the area. >> we have been clear it would be a mistake to move in with a military operation. >> will there be consequences? >> we have been clear on our perspective. >> are you ruling out

consequences? >> i'm ruling out nothing. tom: for analysis, dana joins us. given what we've been hearing from the vice president is israel going to listen? dana: vice president is raising the stakes, going ahead with the operation. antony blinken made a stop in tel aviv there is a high risk in the region and the world. israel has not listened to the u.s. is demands.

they are discussing alternatives to the envision but is hard to see what alternative israel would be convinced of and not go ahead with the plan. tom: you talk about the isolation of israel and it is hard to think of another country supporting israel's objective. there is a lot of opposition, so why is israel so intense on this operation? dana: there is a lot of pressure on israel and it could perhaps jeopardize with the u.s. has been pushing for, a normalization deal between saudi arabia and israel. allies have been against that,

but israel says this is where home offices last bastion czar. they want to destroy the group and not going ahead would risk another attack. another attack, he will not allow it. the majority of israelis are on his side, but antony blinken met with protesters who have been calling the government to agree on cease fire, so the u.s. is trying to do everything it can. it is a way for the u.s. to say we have leveraged and can use it, but it remains to be seen how far the u.s. can take that. tom: thank you very much indeed.

the dubai bureau chief on the implications from the vice president as israeli officials meet with their counterparts. senegal's election cliff anchor. the president is too close to call. that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg. let's turn to the latest on senegal's election to succeed the president. it is too close to call. let's bring in ondiro from johannesburg.

why has this been so significant? >> senegal is very important because they hold effort because largest outstanding euro bonds. they secured a package that depends on who takes power. this year senegal became in oil and gas producer. some reasons why the selection is important, whether volatility will continue. tom: commodity story it is fascinating given they have become an oil and gas producer. what were the key choices for electors? >> there were two leading

contenders. one promises continuation of policies and then we have one who is a firebrand and is antigovernment. he wants to change things including introducing a new currency. the advantages of having a cfa is lower inflation in the currency is stable. because of monetary policy, senegal has to overcompensate. people voted and counting is underway. we wait to see if they will be able to clinch the majority of the vote. tom: what is the state of the economy and the appetite for overseas investors in commodities?

>> senegal is one of the few countries doing well and africa. they are growing at 8.8% and throwing themselves into the commodity market. this is a big project and they have favor in the international market. senegal is located in west africa where there have been eight military coups, but this country offers stability. the economy was growing every year, so investors see good prospects. tom: fantastic. thank you very much indeed. the importance of the vote. looking ahead to rate decisions this week, important week.

africa's biggest economy diverging from emerging markets in latin america are in europe. persistent inflation and gone as the central bank meets. tomorrow is the south african reserve bank as well, a number of big decisions across the continent to be thinking about. plenty more, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: good morning, this is daybreak europe and i am tom mackenzie in london. investors look ahead to a busy

week of data including the fed gauge of inflation. japan's top currency official warns against speculative moves in fx. oil snaps a losing streak and iron ore holds its best gain since september upon china optimism. russia holds a day of mourning after the death toll from friday's attack reaches 137. france raises their security alert to the highest level. let's check in on markets and downside pressure on the nikkei given the verbal intervention by officials in japan warning against weakness.

european futures off by 1/10 of a percent. s&p futures down by 2/10 of 1%. nasdaq futures helped by alphabet and nvidia. context is european stocks hitting european highs. japanese yen in focus. down 1/10 of a percent versus the u.s. dollar. 459, after money moved into u.s. treasuries on the back of the fed decision.

setting up oil for the third month of gains. after gains of 8% last week, down 2/10 of 1%. let's get the context around the terrorist attack in the suburbs on the outskirts of moscow. putin insists ukraine was involved despite the islamic claiming responsibility. i'm joined by a visiting fellow at the australian national university. first of all, where you think this leaves the russian president. did the kremlin take their eyes off the ball? >> it seems russian securities

services have been so focused on internal this and following the death of alexi navalny and they have missed and isis attack that they were warned about as early as march 7. putin responded this was an attempt to threaten russia. tom: it seems there is very little evidence. is that credible that ukrainians played any role? >> i do not think it is credible. there is an active front line with people shooting at each other, so getting across would be difficult. second, isis has released video,

bodycam footage, gruesome stuff during the attack. and you have to ask what would ukraine have to gain for teaming up with isis or selecting people who look like they are from isis. tom: how do you expect vladimir putin to use this to his advantage? >> in ukraine he will use it to justify violence. it's the way he has responded to similar attacks and weaponized them. he will probably want to play it down.

a chechen leader has voiced disquiet over claims made about muslims in russia and there is potential he could use this for further mobilization in ukraine. tom: talk about mobilization, that seems to be a potential option, senior officials pushing for that, how realistic the thing that is? the mobilization and the manpower to push objectives in ukraine? >> given the losses that they have suffered, it is a possibility.

russians invaded with 360 thousand troops. 315,000 have been killed or wounded, prompting mobilization, getting the numbers back up to 450,000. there losing people at an advanced rates in my am not sure that the mobilization, saying cossacks can be called up, not sure that will make up the numbers. tom: what is your assessment of russia's progress in ukraine? how vulnerable are the front lines? what is your assessment on the ground? >> absolutely crucial that ukraine receives artillery

ammunition and drugs and air defense. funding being held up in congress. they will be producing ammunition to a big grain, but there is a long lead time before that becomes reality, so russian progress has been incremental and they're facing the same obstacles as ukrainians when they launched their counter offensive, tanks and minefields. tom: matthew sussex from the australian national unit or city upon the events that unfolded in ukraine. thank you very much indeed. goldman sachs says commodities

are set to advance as central banks lower interest rates. copper, aluminum and oil will see the best improvements. let's bring in clara marques. do you agree with what goldman is saying? clara: you're right. they are feeding into a bullish mood in commodity markets. we have seen the carlyle group at goldman and the idea that rates coming down will stimulate demand. china doing less badly than expected. india picking up. there are tailwinds and we should be looking for a strong 2024.

a handful of commodities, so they will have to be picky. looking at oil, that is quite important. this will not lift every vote. tom: what other commodities should we be keeping our eyes on? talking about geopolitics, there has been a focus on russian reef winery from ukrainian drones. evidence that thinking or having an impact. beyond oil what commodities are looking to move? clara: it is a wide ranging group of asset classes. jonah tax on refineries are tightening oil.

it's a tight market with strong demand. if you look at the comments, they were bullish. elsewhere i would point toward copper, we are heading toward 11 month highs. still quite modest if you think about the supply picture. north of 11,000 is something people have been waiting. will this push it over? not yet, but there are good reasons to be optimistic. tom: thank you very much indeed on the goldman call around the upside for commodities. authorities moved to counter weakness, let's check in on the asian markets in terms of fx

moves in what is happening in terms of how the market is repositioning. ven ram joining us from dubai. intervention, maybe it is 152 in terms of the line in the sand for that currency. what have you been hearing into you expect intervention to be matched by real intervention? venn: good morning. we are further from intervention. i think verbal intervention is but when it comes to physical intervention, you have to put up millions of dollars to move the needle on fx markets because it is one of the most traded currencies had to move the needle takes a lot.

the japanese are concerned and it is not surprising, but any dimension will be around 155 and will be symbolic rather than trying to turn the tide. there is no question that the end has moved away from fundamentals. the yen has diverged from fundamentals. unfortunately it affects markets as often happens and that is what we are seeing. the tide will eventually turn because as we say, the yen is misalignment where it ought to be training. tom: the yen is misaligned, we are agreeing there. in terms of your views, there is another top story. we've seen this before said,

bubbles are back. would you align with that? ven: i am sympathetic to the idea that the front end is big. they shown bias, they want to cut rates. the front end, steepening of a different kind will work here. even though they want to cut rates, they seem to be tolerating higher inflation, in the case of the fed, that's true. if that is going to be the case steepening would work better. before the fed cuts rates, a steepener may come to the foreground. tom: there is the call.

thank you very much indeed. coming up, could new york state sees donald trump's assets? we're going to talk about that. looming deadline for the president is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back. donald trump faces a moment of truth for his finances, the deadline to post bond of more than half $1 billion in a civil fraud case. who better to unpack this than

kriti gupta. what do we know? kriti: finances are coming to haunt him. in new york he owes $454 million. legality suggests you cannot just pay that, there is interest and collateral of 120% of the bond value. he owes closer to 600 million dollars. that's a lot of money and that's where things get tricky because the deadline comes when loan company is saying his collateral is not enough. real estate is not used as collateral because of the risk involved, so is a sure thing they insist on cash. that is a large amount to have

and kind of the point, that he cannot afford to do this. he might call for bankruptcy but the question is will the judge say this is a way to get out of your obligations? the other option is to trigger a fire sale. his real estate and the stakes in real estate, what they are worth, he is in the dark about that. tom: you're talking about big properties on the table. not as simple as selling assets. how much payroll does this lead him to? he has been able to duck a lot of this. kriti: both options seem scary because trump tower in

manhattan, we don't know what this is worth and it has to do with asset valuation and scrutiny. is he able to get financing from a friend, a foreign government? how much of this is for a friend, how much is in support to the future president of america? tom: kriti, thank you very much indeed. the decision later today on the financial commitment from donald trump. the candidate in november. plenty more, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> initially we had bottom up drivers, themes that were powerful, but the rally is

narrowing and you have a top-down factor enabling central banks that will do what they want regardless of selective data focus. these are powerful. i was surprised by the extent to which patients with inflation running higher, he dismissed the fact that we have had surprising inflation print. the second thing was the balance sheet, saying we may get there slower than we would have otherwise, which means monetary policy will be expansionary. i was struck that he took a big step when he could have waited till the next meeting. >> we wonder what she will drop. we think everyone is bullish and you have to wonder when will it

break? it is the inflation expectations, a higher, more inflationary environment with a fed less willing to fight. i'm not seeing it in other places that you normally would. why do you think that is? >> look at the reaction on gold. you have all said it, the everything rally. what is interesting is the notion of market enthusiasm in the world. that is a consequential statement. if that occurs than the u.s. relative strength will be diminished. it is too early to pivot. u.s. exceptionalism will not expand. the u.s. is exceptional and the

others are investing in future drivers of growth. they do not have the mobility that we have. the u.s. is exceptional. >> do you think it's rational to stay in the u.s. and add more if valuations are high? to bet on this and not expected to expand? >> i've been asked that question every year in the u.s. premium has increased every year. i say do not feed the u.s. to quickly. i do not see it as supported by fundamentals. this is betting on momentum. momentum is strong. tom: that was bloomberg opinion

columnist mohammed on momentum in the markets. he started talking about the fact that this is a fed that will look through sticky year inflation inputs matt is what we are seeing, the expenditures are out on friday. does the fed continue to look through that? you get a monthly headline of 0.4% from 0.3% and go back to the end of last year and see the landing strip in view in terms of the inflation story. the nose takes up, it does not land. the fact that it has started to grind higher in the last three months, the february number is expected to build. when you think about the fed

reaction and tied that into the movement, goldman sachs is keeping its forecast at 5200. one scenario where mega cap tech moves back and leads to 15% gain for the s&p. setting itself up. were thinking about, this is the valuation story. history is a guide. up markets today is next, this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal.

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guy: good morning from london. this is "bloomberg markets: today."i'm guy johnson alongside kriti gupta and tom mackenzie. we are an hour away from the start of equity trading. what do you need to know? after a rocky week last week for equity, credit and the bond markets, investors are looking to central banks and inflation