are the top stories. asian stocks climb with the boj widely expected to end the negative interest rate policy tuesday. china's factory out book strongly expected -- stronger than expected at the end of the year but consumers are still not stepping up. india to whole the world's biggest elections six weeks, april 19, prime minister bidding for a third term and we are joined by morgan stanley chief asian economist on his take. and breaking news, dollar bonds have dropped the most in six months after u.s. prosecutors expanding on the [indiscernible] potential bribery and the group has just recovered from the saga

now facing yet another problem prosecutors expanding the probe to review potential bribery and dollar bonds for adani dropping the most in six months and let's look at how it pans out when india opens in 45 minutes from here so a big week for markets with the fed and boj in focus and let's see how it is all playing out in today's trading with avril hong. when you look at the market, not showing much dearth. >> a lot of it is already priced in or they are in wait-and-see mode. if you look at how the bod -- boj decision this week will set the near term direction for the global market, for the fed it is about if the data will cause it to dial back attention on rate cuts for the year for the boj we

are seeing markets fully pricing in a move tomorrow and we already saw strong wage results from last friday spurring more -- the rates take into 0.1% for the boj but it is not just the rift -- left off and it is about the forward guidance and given how big the yield gap still is between the u.s. and japan we see the relative weakness still on the yen helping some export related content in japan with the nikkei with gains of upwards of 2% and not just japan or the u.s. we are watching in the past hour we got the data from china showing a relatively mixed bad but some stabilization, retail sales disappointed slightly will industrial production numbers show better than expected pick up so all that seems to be

pointing towards some stabilization in the chinese economy we saw the of shery ahn move towards the 72020 level. -- the offshore yen move towards the 72020 level. >> it is a big week for central banks all over the world. >> the central banks of half the world's economy will be coming out with decisions, including swiss, norwegian, u.k. central banks and also six of the 10 most traded currencies in the world, those central banks will come out with decisions but it is not just the developed markets, latin america, turkey, this could also show how the inflation risk seems to be diverging and in light of the conflict in ukraine so all

income of this will be a very consequential we watch for central bank decisions. >> avril, thank you so much for that and we are focusing on the boj decision tuesday and here are some of our bloomberg tv guess today on what to expect. >> central banks in asia have generally been holding tight this year, early this year. i think they are waiting to see the fed move first before easing further >>. they will raise the policy rates and and negative interest rate policy and i think they will raise it to 0.1% and and the purchase of etf >>. >>boj is clearly on the path to normalizing, this week or next, it is almost going to happen and having said that, if they move,

we expect them to new move but also talk expectations now so they will have a runaway policy expectations of higher and higher rates, they want to push back against that. >> goldman sachs now expects the boj to cut rates tuesday on the back of stronger wage outcomes and a number of news articles suggest the move is on. for more let's bring in stephen engle in tokyo and mark cranfield here. stephen, will they or will they hike rates tomorrow -- or won't they hike rates tomorrow? >> it looks like they will. the former w governor of the boj admits they will go and it is pretty much baked in now, whoever leak leaked it to the press, it will likely happen

tomorrow, you can almost bet on it. but is it the right decision and will there be any telegraphing going forward of future rate hikes, probably not, we will probably get a very accommodative speech from the governor tomorrow essentially the central bank through the 90's and then led up to of course the continual deflation in japan before the turnaround essentially was filled with policy mistakes many people say prematurely with growing stimulus and then getting the political blowback so they will be pretty crawfish -- cautious while at the same time amend to sleet stepping away from negative interest rate policy that has lasted for 17 years and goldman sachs report highlights that they have basically made the call and predict a hike

tomorrow and they cited the media reports that pretty much confirmed that. >> so it's about the messaging. what else are we looking for tomorrow? >> yeah again we will get more statements from the governor and he is unlikely everyone i talk to to give any roadmap for future hate -- future rate hikes, he will talk about how it is an accommodative policy and it could remember the continual pace of bond purposes -- purchases of gdp will continue but they might scrap the etf policy, essentially those purchases have been in place since 2010 to put a backstop to the stock market because we all know of course stocks have done extremely well with the nikkei at the beginning of trade today at 38700 and change more recently it was over 40,000 on

march 7 so again maybe they can dial back on those purchases, that is something most people do expect. >> let's look at how markets are reacting and not much, it has been pretty unsettling, this is the first move since 2007 yet very little in terms of reaction. >> we had the reaction last week so if you think about what has been going on for the past couple of weeks, traders have been bombarding, wages are going up, boj is ready now and we have had weeks as stephen was saying suggesting a pretty done deal and dollar-yen is around the 149 so you would ask active traders were concerned and they thought the boj would be truly hawkish on the yen you would think it would be a lot lower but what it tells you is they are much more concerned about the fed to give them a shock rather than the

bank of japan and at the same time as all this u.s. treasuries and the 10 year sector had the worst week of the year last week because the fed will do the dot plots this year and now they think the data has been good enough and the fed will lower the expectation to two rate cuts this year so what that sense of is a situation where the fed will be the swing factor, probably the only chance for the dollar yen to have a serious move lower is if the fed surprises and keeps three rate cuts in the picture rather than two, the rest of it is priced in. >> in our survey most expect the yen two and 120 to 140. is it realistic? >> it relies on the fed doing their part in terms of rate cuts. if they change to only two cuts this year dollar yen will probably not reach that threshold and the whole mliv policy some of the other interesting data from it big

takeaway is the fact that japan has invested a lot of money overseas, especially in u.s. markets on u.s. treasuries and yet people in the survey don't think much of that will come back to japan so what that tells you is the attraction of japanese bond will not be sufficient enough, equities may be but not as well as s&p 500 and u.s. markets so the big chunk of money most of it will stay overseas and the yen will not get big boosts and japanese bonds will get a big boost so all in all the impact on local japanese markets is really not going to be that exciting. >> jgb yields. the 10 year yields. when will they get to 2%? >> that's the question and at first if you had asked me a month ago i would have said yes, if it is even possible for this year, if you look back for euler -- for yields fell and it took

them a decade to reach zero and we've been creeping back the other way and now the boj the outlook will be very dovish and they will promise to support the bond market even though they may will -- remove control to say in theory there is no headlines or 10 year yields but every time the mark moves it stabilizes and we suggest it will take a long time to reach to percent and it is unlikely to happen this year. >> the boj has said before not to expect consecutive rate hikes from them. stephen engle and mark cranfield, thank you so much for your insights today out still ahead, more analysis on the boj upcoming decision with markets chief asia economist and why he thinks india current economic boom resembles the growth spurt

in the mid to thousands but first bank of singapore of their outlook on china and why they say economic activity is stabilizing. still to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. it china's economy saw a stronger-than-expected start to the year with government targeting an ambitious goal of 5%. fixed asset investments through february beat expectations. retail grew 5.5 percent, roughly in line with projections. but investment and property development fell 9% and remains a major drag on the economy in our next guest things china's economic activity outside the property sector is stable. let's bring in eli li from the bank of singapore. it is a good enough? >> for us it is a sign of relief the overall picture looks to be one of stabilization. outside the property sector we saw industrial -- importantly

versus what the market is pricing in a really depressing bond issuance right now i think the picture is better than anticipated. >> looking at the csi 300 index currently up for tenths of 1%, muted in terms of reaction. i am wondering if it is good enough for you to start dipping your toes in the china market. >> certainly there is potential for a shortened rally given valuations and how skewed positioning is. but is it a sustainable recovery? it will depend on when we see more policy stimulus structural reforms from the policymakers. >> you say that outside property things look china. what would you buy in china? >> the internet sector is compelling. the infrastructure space is interesting. the renewable energy and ev is attractive as well. >> we saw a retreat in internet

stocks after concerns over to talk. -- tiktok paired with trump possibly coming to power if he wins the election at year end could internet stocks in china be under a lot of pressure? >> we could see near-term volatility, but let's not forget valuations have been pricing in a lot of negativity and the earnings season is coming up and we think some of the earnings could look very positive. >> what is key in terms of stimulus, how realistic is it to expect the deeper cuts in rrr, mls, lpr? >> we need to see bottoming out of the property market. the issues in the local

government vehicles has to be resolved. and we think we need clearer signs chile -- china is coming out of a deflationary. >> japan in focus with boj set to make the decision tomorrow. how are you positioning? some are making huge positions betting the boj will make the moves it expects. >> conditions are right for the boj to make a move tomorrow but more likely in april. the market is pricing in at a negative rate. the timing is where the details will be. we think the boj is unlikely to rush a move. maybe one more insulation print before making a move. there is no rush. this is a crucial exit.

>> deal by the yen or the nikkei, jgb, all of the above -- do you buy the yen or nikkei or jgb or all of the above? you talk about the yen appreciating, it is not doing much, it strengthens, now at 140 nine, realistically how much strength in the yen can we see when the dollar remains pretty resilient with the said likely perhaps cutting the prospects of rate cuts this year? >> as much as 130 versus the dollar. there are two sides to the equation. on one hand negative rates. the other hand we expect the fed to cut rates starting in june. so that pressure on the rate differential could cause the yen to appreciate significantly and the yen is the cheapest it has been in decades.

>> expectations of repatriation of japanese money to the u.s. and why would people dig 5% for something nonexistent? -- ditch 5% for something nonexistent? >> a lot of this comes from christ and rate. japan assets looking increasing interesting. attractively priced in our view so we think that shift in capital flows will drive the appreciation. >> what is the most compelling buy in sectors in japan? >> domestic consumption sector will benefit from the normalization. >> japan versus the u.s. versus china to which one will outperform this year? >> that is a tough question. we are overweight japanese equities.

we think valuations look more attractive on a relative basis. china we could see a rally in the near term but whether it is sustainable depends on when we see more policies from [indiscernible] >> the markets behaving like there's very little risk. when you look at how the u.s., japan, india, are trading close to record highs, are you concerned about concentration risk? should you be looking at rotation right now? >> for sure. in the u.s., very crowded trade, we think the rally will likely broaden. and after such a sharp rally in the last four months there is bound to be eligibility -- volatility. growth still fairly healthy and we think this is a classic

reflationary environment. >> how would you hedge against the risks? we saw inflow of gold etf's last week. is it the best way to hedge? >> gold is compelling at this time and as real rates fall going forward there will be opportunity for gold as well. >> year end, in terms of bonds, stocks, currencies, you are most compelling calls would be? >> we like japanese equities. we like gold. we like japanese yen. with fixed income we like developed market. >> anything you like in europe? >> the cash sector in europe is compelling. some attractive opportunities then good valuations. >> eli, thank you so much for your time today. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg.

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>> welcome back. china's markets muted despite expected data, some stocks we are tracking, in light of developers seeing 24% drop in transactions over the weekend versus a week ago, so that a discount to did track buyers from the secondary market and the s&p says the supply glut and high bartering prices will continue to fall in 2024 and read pretty much across the board, some down almost 5%, and we are also watching china

brokerages, rising on chinese value for top investment banks that was issued friday but setting up top investment banks and stepping up super visit the dust supervision. citic securities up 1.8%, cicc higher by almost 6% right now and giving a lift for the chinese stocks we are also watching chinese ev makers, some planning cheaper brands according to reuters, and neo up almost 5% but the auto stopping about 4% and prices range for the new models, coming to 13,800 95 dollars. byd currently up 2.9% and trump threatening 100% tariffs on chinese cars made in mexico is also playing out right there and

see atl jumping on earnings and according to the market there you have it and overall the market in positive trying to rally 225 up by 1% as we await the decision from the eog take a look at where we are terms of japanese yen pretty stable at 149 and plenty more is ahead. click -- keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there you have it. as shanghai, welcome back. china market just heading to lunch. extending its against almost half a percent.

perhaps temporary relief following this morning's data. retail sales slightly miss expectations at 5.5% versus projections of 5.6% but industrial production and fixed assets surprised to the upside. we have china shanghai composite. the one trading, propped up. japanese markets just coming back with the focus squarely on tomorrow's boj decision. here's what our guests have been saying on what to expect. >> we have been saying the bank of japan is very lucky to be tightening policies. >> my view is that it will be a very devilish exit. >> markets split between a march and april exit from negative rates. >> the u.s. goes lower. the yen strengthens a little bit. >> i don't think they want to risk any financial instability. >> the stock market has

performed very well on the weaker yen against -- amongst others. that could take some of the zest out of that. >> it seems like these past couple of months would be a little bit rough for japanese equities but at the same time, they can give you opportunities. >> where does it go? that could bring us back may be to china. >> let's take a closer look at how markets in japan are faring. the nikkei is in outperformer today. >> it is leading the charge in the equities space. the nikkei climbing to percent plus and we are back from the lunch break from hanging onto the gains from the morning session and this is a slight weakness, relative weakness in the japanese currency but as you know, it's really all eyes on the boj tomorrow. market pricing in fully a move from the central bank and we have local media reports showing that we could see it going to

0.1%. it's not just about the rate lift off. it's also about the forward guidance we could get from the japanese central bank. let's flip the board and take a look at what this means cross-asset's because as you know, the yield gap is still big between the u.s. and japan. let's highlight what we are seeing on the topix, the nikkei, coming to close percent. on the topix, those gains are capped by a reversal today from the mining and energy related counters. last week, they are among the biggest decliners on the broad base. as i said, the yen is still relative weakness as the yield has moved slightly. a bit of a reversal from what we saw last week so it's about that gap. >> going nowhere. thank you so much for that. japan's chief executives are preparing to businesses for the first rate hike since 2007 with the bank widely expected to end its negative rate cycle as soon as tomorrow.

i spoke with the recruit ceo to find out what a boj normalization could mean for business. >> i think, you know, that one business factor for the japanese economy is there really weeks japanese yen so i think, same as other central banks, it is just a matter of time how the japanese central bank is coming back to the normal situation. >> has business sentiment -- finally seeing the kind of growth that you wanted to see? >> i think, you know, what i'm hearing is japanese companies can increase the prices of items and that is the first step to increase the compensation in hourly wage and that cycle, we have to definitely make it better, and so, to do that, you

know, first of all, we need to increase the price on the items. everything is becoming more. probably the first step to normalize japanese inflation in the economy. >> record holding ceo and you can watch my full interview with him on the next episode of latitude, which premieres march 28. staying with japan, or next guest expects the boj will abolishes negative interest rate policy and yield curve control at tuesday's meeting. let's bring in the chief asian economist at morgan stanley. it does look like the stars finally aligned for the boj to normalize. >> that is right.

so i think, you know, he has been spot on on this for sometime. we have been expecting the boj would be moving in march and now, with the wage data in hand, it looks very likely the boj will be removing its negative interest rates policy on tomorrow. >> the thing is some say it is not time yet because demand is not strong enough and fundamentals are not quite in place. how do you respond to that? >> well, i think the revision to last quarter's gdp data to positive territory kind of allays that fear and the more important issue for us was what is happening to the cycle of prices and wages. now, we have seen clear evidence that it is translating into pretty significant wage growth. and our team has done some modeling work and trying to understand what is the ratio of

wages passing through to prices and our view is that has moved up from a very negligible rate to know about 50% which then gives us an indication that core inflation in japan is right now at a sustainable level of 1.5% to 1.75 percent which is indicating to the boj that they are on the track to get that 2% inflation target. so we think there is a clear signal from the wage growth data that they need to now sort of move out of this negative interest rate policy. >> if the boj exits tomorrow, normalizes policy, what would the next movie? because the boj has been quite clear. don't expect consecutive moves by the boj. >> that is right. i think they will be making it abundantly clear that this is not the beginning of a series of

rate hikes. we are expecting them to take up another move but that is coming up in the meeting in july and that would be another high to be taken up by the boj and then we think the boj is done and so i think they will have to try and give some guidance to that aspect that if at all, they will take up one more or two more rate hikes and they would not be taking up a series of rate hikes and maintain a monetary policy in accommodative territory until they have a very clear-sighted of 2% inflation being achieved on a sustainable basis and we think that will be achieved in tomorrow's policy meeting. >> what is sustainable for the yen given what you have just said? it is at 149 right now and it was very hard for it to breach 147. give us a sense of where you expect the currency to be? >> so we see our fx strategy team is forecasting a modest

appreciation in yen but understand that the rate differentials between the u.s. and japan are still going to be very high and so in our view, the direction of the yen is now more likely to depend upon what is happening to the u.s. 10 year bond yields and the expectations on the fed rate path and we are expecting the fed to begin rate cuts from june so when the indication is more priced into the market in a full manner, there would be some modest appreciation of the yen that you will see but it is not going to be appreciating in a way that that takes away this 2% inflation target for the boj. >> i want to pivot to china. a mixed picture in terms of data that came out today. it is a reflection of apache recovery in the economy. chetan: yes, absolutely. i think is other factors like you had two extra days in the month of february, the lunar new

year this time was a bit later than last year, so we would not take this strength in the data as a clear indication of china now being out of the woods. and we are still concerned about the deflationary trend so to that extent to which the pricing data that came out earlier was reflecting the ppi was weaker than expected at -2.7, we are still expecting that china's gdp deflator will be relatively weak and that will constrain china's nominal gdp growth in this year as well as from an outlook perspective. china's nominal gdp growth will be now structurally weaker in the range of 4% to four point 5%. >> investors and economists have said time and time again that this is an economy that still requires or stimulus. the pboc has come out to say it will cut the rrr again. how meaningful with that be for

the economy? >> i in an environment where there are deflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. it will ensure that real rates don't go up too high but at the same time, you know, there's going to be only marginal reduction in interest rates in china and from our perspective, what they really need to do is to stimulate the economy with fiscal expansion and that fiscal expansion should be targeted towards hosting consumption. but from whatever we are hearing from the policymakers, it seems that their focus is really to push the supply side, focus on investment in manufacturing, and that is not likely to help them in addressing this deflation risk. >> given what we have just discussed about the weakness of the economy, what is fair value for the yuan? because it has been propped up

by the pboc with the fixes. we saw the strongest fix in quite a while just last week. >> so it is hard to give you the value of the yuan versus the dollar because it's all relative pricing, but from a fundamental perspective, what we are arguing is to the extent to which they have these deflationary pressures on that basis, one would depreciate by 1% to 2% because in an environment where you have deflationary trends, there has to be that benefit that has to come through from some amount of depreciation in currency. but they are unlikely to let the currency depreciate in a meaningful manner because they would perceive that to be a sign of instability. in understand that while china is, you know, a reserve currency, from all practical

purposes, it will still have the challenges that it a typical emerging-market currency would have if they let too much depreciation come through. it would be a self-fulfilling challenge in terms of capital outflows and therefore bigger currency depreciation risk. a modest amount of depreciation is what the central bank will be looking at. >> hang tight. he is sticking around. let's do a check on stocks premarket. the markets are trading in four minutes from here. in mumbai and that is on the back of the investigation done by the u.s. expanding its investigation. of course, this has to do with whether or not it has engaged in bribery and we are also seeing bonds following the most in over six months on the back of that u.s. probe.

following 2.4 cents and that's the most since august. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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india has announced that general elections will be held over six weeks from april 19. the election commission says the holes will be completed on june 1 with vote counting on june 4. prime minister narendra modi is bidding for a third term in office, boosted by a strong economy and a weekend opposition alliance that has been struggling to put across a cohesive message. india start trading 15 seconds from here and this has been a gangbusters market with foreign investors pumping in money time and time again. it has been seen as an alternative to the chinese market and we are seeing record highs after record highs. we are keeping a watch in particular on those group stocks we saw them sliding in premarket on the back of that investigation in the u.s., digging into whether or not people linked to the company including him himself were involved in paying officials in india for favorable treatment on

an energy project. we are seeing it much down across the board. the enterprise is down 4.5 percent. energysolutions lower by almost 7% right there. dollar bonds dropping the most in over six months on the u.s.. this is a company that has just recovered from the hindenburg crisis and now, another challenge for it to overcome. let's bring in the chief asian economist at morgan stanley he says india's current expansion resembles that of the mid to thousands when growth averaged more than 8%. so 8% growth for india could be the norm from here. >> know, i think we are seeing that india will still grow at 6.9% to 7% but what we are arguing is that in terms of the dynamic or characteristics of this cycle, it will be similar to what we have seen in 2003 to 2007 where it was driven by

investment to gdp going up higher so for example, in that cycle, what we had seen was investment in gdp went up by about over 10 percentage points to 38% by 2007. and then this cycle, we have seen something similar. 28% of gdp and we are expecting this to go to 36% over the next three years. so that is the similarity that makes us feel that this is similar to that cycle. but the key important point is that if growth is driven by investment, then for an emerging market like india, you will not see the macro stability issues like high inflation or current account deficit. and therefore, it makes it easier for investors to make an estimate of medium-term growth which would be sustainable without going through some major challenges. >> the question is what is a sustainable pace of growth for india in the long term? the likes of -- they have come out to say that india should

grow more than 8% to create more jobs, to lift more people out of poverty. >> yes, that is right. i would not disagree with the fact that india does need higher growth rates and we had seen that china did achieve something like 10% for 30 years so to manage the concerns on the job market concerns, if you are -- if you're labor force is growing so strongly, then you need that kind of growth rate but we do think that there are challenges for india to achieve. you know, 8% to 10% growth rates and the biggest issue would be the infrastructure set up. infrastructure is being built in india but it will have to do a lot more to get to 10% growth rate and then the second challenge would be about skilled manpower so both of these constraints, we think, you know, it makes us believe india's growth is going to be strong but

at 6.5% to 7%. >> people are beginning to talk about how india is an alternative to china. we are seeing that in the market already. in terms of the economy, what policies are needed to make india the choice destination for investors? >> well, i think it will have its rightful place and we are seeing that happening already in terms of the capital market inflows. and even when you see the data, india's market share has been going out for fact, it has made the biggest delta in that market share after japan within the region and china has lost market share in global fdi so that trend is coming in but to say whether india can completely replace china or compete very heavily in the manufacturing

sector, we think that is less likely because, you know, china is far more advanced and as you see from the data that china is getting into now new age industries like the renewables space as well as legacy chips. in india is going to take time to get to that type of competitiveness. we think india will see a gain in its market share for global goods exports but it will have to be still in -- at its own merits rather than taking away market share in a big way from china. >> very quickly, when do you expect the rpi to start cutting rates? >> we are expecting the rba to cut in june. but we are also conscious that the growth outcomes have been surprising on the upside and if growth does continue to surprise on the upside, there is a possibility that are b.i.

may not take it up at all. but at this time, our base case is that they will probably pick up a shallow rate cut cycle in june. >> great stuff. chief asian economist at morgan stanley, do come back soon. plenty more ahead, especially on baseball in asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the los angeles dodgers and san diego padres are set to play in south korea in the first games of the major league baseball season. show hair tell me and kim on the field. 2024 is standing out to be the moment in asia. for more, let's bring in kim from seoul. why is mlb holding this event in seoul? >> this is the first time mlb is opening its season in south korea and it's also a big debut game for shelley otani. all of baseball fans eyes are on seoul right now. mlb's decision to hold the event in seoul is truly an interesting choice. korea has become a culture gateway for asia in recent years. it is a cultural influence and it has grown to the global level so sports leagues wants to use that influence for sure. it comes at a time when the baseball league is trying to

attract younger generations and push for growth outside the u.s. things to otani, mlb is seeing financial growth for merchandise sales and use in asia are also soaring so all of this growth shows there's more room for asia and mlb in asia to boost their sales here with streaming rights and sponsorships. it's a no-brainer for mlb to put out for an asia expansion. >> exactly, no-brainer. apart from seoul, where else in the region? >> definitely china. they are eyeing big on china and they are cultivating culture there. and spread their brand there. it is the biggest market but still, the number of baseball players are lagging behind other sports like soccer and basketball, compared to their population. so one factor is that mlb has more appeal to young generations

with its fashion brand in china and south korea is running the mlb brand with licenses from the league and they have more than 1000 mlb stores in china so if mlb manages to find at least one big chinese player who would become a big star like otani, we will see massive growth there. so that is what mlb is hoping to see in china in the long run. >> all right. asia is it. thank you so much for that. our colleague at bloomberg news. let's do a check on markets. miners on the back of iron ore, something even more, something beyond that $100 level as china concerns are spurring that rout. china steel .6 percent. fortescue metals in australia down more than 1%. iron ore is self trading in singapore at 101.30, down about

half percent. it is a big week for markets. a recalibration perhaps in markets and bond traders no longer expecting that first cut. take a look at where we are in terms of the gmm. nikkei 225 expanding the gains, 2.2%. the boj may just be in the mood to move tomorrow. that is it from bloomberg markets: asia. daybreak middle east and africa is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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