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tom: this is bloomberg and i am tom mackenzie. these are the stories that set your agenda. asian shares fall in the fed has more reasons to delay cuts. the boj is set to hike rates for the first time since 2007 as traders i crucial data. vladimir putin extends his rule in russia. we discussed that and what another term will mean. let's check in on markets. risk off. a second downside. steamy prices and disconnect from cpi, pbi and dovish

commentary from jay powell. markets pricing in a full cut in july. european futures off by 1/10 of a percent. the ftse 100 is flat. investors are adjusting to sticky inflation, setting up for negative session. a big day for japan, expecting a press conference from japan and an update on wage negotiations. speculation increasing that the boj could go with its first hike since 2007.

he saw the selloff across treasuries on the back of producer prices and a 10 basis move higher. the yen is in focus. not a lot of movement but that could change. copper is the commodity to watch. it is currently at an 11 month high on speculation that demand is heating up and supply constraints. notable given the high. bitcoin has taken a significant move lower. concerns and bubble speculation around cryptocurrency. down 4%. will the narrative give that more support?

april is standing by in singapore. what is standing out? >> a double whammy from u.s. pbi and chinese central bank. did not come through with stimulus and i will get that in a bit. tech shares were among the biggest drag today, the ones feeling the pro shop and the thanks is declining. it lost two and a half percent. interesting to see how it is pairing declines and note that the etf that enjoy national team's attention are picking up. let's take you to what we got out of the pboc. the one year mlf left unchanged,

but economists thought maybe we get a 10 basis point reduction fueled by the pboc governor frontloading the rrr reduction, sending a signal that they are paying attention to boosting market confidence. mlf left at 2.5% and we got the chinese central bank draining liquidity. watch out for yield reversals. another signal coming true, divergence with iron ore. there are supply demand dynamics and structural shifts in the chinese economy to the new

economy versus infrastructure. this is a mixed-signal for investors. i want to take you to japan. we are watching out for the ringo and there is a lot at stake. nikkei declining but we saw losses for the topics cap thanks to a rally in mining and the yen pushing upwards against the greenback. tom: thank you very much indeed. the umbrella indeed that many of us had never heard of. let's stay on that story. japan's largest union group will hold a press conference and the figures could be the deciding factor on whether or not bank of japan will raise rates for the first time since 2007.

i'm joined by brian fowler in tokyo. what is the expected outcome? brian: we expect those headlines in about an hour and the indication is the number will be strong. we had a couple of unions announced early results in those are all at 5%. the number two beat is three point eight, that's what we had one year ago. we think we will be above that. it will not get 5.5% but with inflation staying at or above target for two years, it is reasonable to think they will get 80% of demand but around 4.9%, the strongest growth in wages and more than 30 years,

sending a strong signal to the boj. tom: we could be looking at 4.9%. what would be rationale for holding? what were the concerns be if they don't move? brian: they could say no real need to go immediately, we can send a signal that were going to do it but take another month. the boj has said it wants confirmation that it's wage price cycle is kicking off. if wage hikes are high, consumers will feel more confident about spending and that might be the catalysts to say wages will feed into demand

and that is enough to go ahead. that is what the boj will discuss. tom: very interesting. our team wants to see wage increases. brian fowler, thank you ahead of a crucial day with wage agreements and focus. another hot u.s. inflation print reinforcing that the fed will not rush to cut rates. mark cranfield is standing by in singapore. what are bond traders looking for after pbi came in steamy? >> it has made the story more interesting. for bond and fx traders, discussion was about how far the fed will go next week in terms

of projections. it took the market ages to get in line with the projection and we are there now. it only needs a couple of people to change their mind were looking at two cuts rather than three and it's not just pp numbers. we had cpi numbers as well. it would not take much for the fed people to shifts in be pretty negative. the boj comes between that it would have an impact on dollar-yen. there's plenty to be stirred around but for bond traders is about is the fed going to stick to three interest rate cuts. they got several more meetings.

because the market is thinking they're not going to start until july, that would be negative for the bond market. tom: whether jay powell lobbies the fomc, it is risk off. i'll are up. is it about the narrative around stinky u.s. inflation? >> it is partly what you mentioned, the slide bitcoin triggered a broader move of people saying bitcoin is giving up gains. we should pare before a huge week. hong kong stocks having a bad day. equity markets are down copper is doing well but iron ore is

not. people are adjusting all the huge things coming. maybe it is better to be on the sidelines. if you're looking for excuses for taking money off the table, there are plenty. tom: complexity on this day with divergence. thank you, fascinating. of course mark is one of our key strategists. here is what we are looking at today. final french cpi for february. survey is looking at 0.9% and we will see if that comes in. dovish commentary from some officials and inflation data are out of france is crucial to the assessment.

2:00 p.m. u.k. time we switch to the u.s.. university of michigan sentiment survey suggesting retail sales were softer. whether the university of michigan sentiment survey builds will be interesting. it is the russian presidential election that we will keep across as well, voting has started and there is a strong expectation that vladimir putin has this in the km. domestic implications and global implications. oil markets hit a four-month high. we get the view from crystal energy founder carol natalie. plus later i will speak to ceo christos as greece sells its stake in the lender.

the exclusive conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg. oil hitting a high and a supply deficit instead of a surplus. for analysis was bring in carol natalie -- let's bring in carol natalie. there is a key assumption that opec-plus and cuts are extended. what is your view?

carol: if we look at the forecast from the beginning of the year we conceded been changing numbers and becoming more bullish, gradually increasing forecasts. they said the market would remain comfortable and now they are talking about the market being in a deficit, not much happening in terms of being worried. the main assumption is opec-plus will maintain cuts, which have been extended. there is a big if.

iraq is one of them, the uae could be one as well. what is your expectation as to whether the group can hold the line? carol: they are not doing a bad job you think about the damage that the departure of angola caused. the previous d -- discontent within the organization, they are getting away with small production without breaking quotas. a rack struggled -- iraq

struggled but what matters are the big players like saudi arabia and russia. they hold the whole group together, opec-plus. i'm concerned about discipline, but hopefully that will not be an issue. tom: u.s. inventory following, what is your outlook for u.s. production? carol: that is an interesting story. prices we are seeing these days -- i want to go back to what was expected for the oil market. there is plenty of oil around 1.9 billion barrels and what is happening in the red sea.

i remain optimistic and their driving. oil forecasts have one thing in common, the economic situation is not comforting. they are facing structural problems, not things that will dissipate. they require fundamental changes in the structure of the economy,

so my main concern is demand is increasing, but not at the pace many hope for. tom: always with smart analysis, carol natalie, thank you for your insights. wti is just over 81. breaking news around and acquisition and the makings for some time, swiss corp. to buy vodafone italian for one billion euros. they are restructuring and trying to sell assets. swiss, agreeing to buy vodafone. we will keep across that story. increasing their dividend to 26 swiss francs in 2026. we've been talking about oil, now are talking about iron

futures dropping to $100 a ton. the china demand for iron ore and lack of demand for stimulus with the removal of liquidity in the system today is why you're seeing softness in the iron or price. key component in the buildout of infrastructure in the u.s.. iron ore under pressure and copper crossing through 9000. the divergence is fascinating, what it tells us. low prices. the commodity stories set to persist, causing friction in the transition. our deep dive on battery metals next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: let's turn to renewable energy. prices for metals of crashed. let's bring in the head of bloomberg's metals and mining research. what is driving the downturn? >> this started during covid. we saw prices go high and when you have high prices they cure other high prices. supplier started producing more. tom: lithium prices were badly hit. do we tie that to tesla? talk about lithium. >> more complicated in the sense

that we saw prices rise high. the world came in with more supply. slowing down interest rates in the u.s. and inflation in europe resulted in demand slowing down. high surplus, drop in demand is what drove down prices. tom: bad news for producers, good news for consumers. >> the battery is the biggest cost component. the cost come from metals so metals prices coming down means cheaper batteries. companies have passed that to consumers but this will not last long. if you have low prices you have

restricted supply. demand is going to grow so you have the reverse of today with a deficit leading to higher prices. tom: where do you look for constraints? softer prices. we can benefit from softer prices with all of these falling prices, but they will have to restrict. >> the key thing to look for is current assets where it is high cost. there are different types of deficit. in china there is a high cost. so these deficits that are high cost become difficult and that will be the point that limits

supply. tom: interesting in terms of the metals that go into these batteries in other parts of the process. thank you indeed for the analysis. the head of bloomberg's metals and mining research. coming up, we will talk to the ceo of greases largest lender. the view on the greek economy as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we got him under a new plan. but then they unexpectedly unraveled their "price lock" guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the "un-carrier". you sing about "price lock" on those commercials. "the price lock, the price lock..." so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock.

so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

♪ tom: good morning, this is

bloomberg and i am tom mackenzie. asian shares follow wall street with more reasons to delay cuts. boj is hiking as wage data comes out. vladimir putin extending his rule over russia. what another term will mean. risk off across equity markets. looks like we could be said for further pressure. the inflation narrative is at the front of people's attention. ftse 100 futures looking to

losses. building on the downside. nasdaq futures pointing lower. big day for japan, monitoring pressure. you saw selloff. the japanese yen in focus given the wage negotiations in the next 30 minutes or so. copper is breaking through for the first time in 11 months. bitcoin crashing through 70,000. in little concern about the crypto space. we know swisscom will be buying vodafone for 8 billion.

shareholders will return for billion euros via buybacks. this business has been constrained and this is an effort as restructuring goes and some progress being sold over a year. stock is down because it has been under pressure. down 22%. shareholder return is coming through. what's good to a story unfolding . the state invest from holdings built up during the debt crisis

in greece. i am joined by ceo christos in the studio. good morning, thank you for joining us. success in terms of the estate sale. you've managed to turn things around. >> and has been a journey that resulted from an elaborate strategy focused on the main issues we had to address. we had to do a number of groundbreaking transactions. the sale of the first package, the sale of the management unit, issuance of debt. we were able to turn around 54%

of nonperforming exposures. looking at the future with confidence. tom: you are aiming for a profit of one billion euros. what is your confidence that you can get there? >> we came up with a very focused, very glandular plan. 25, 26, we laid down projections of one billion a year for the next three years. this is a healthy topline, good commissions outlook and very focused reduction and a disciplined program we have been

implementing. rationalization of the cost of risk. greece is not producing as many mps as before. bottom line, 2020 do is the best year ever. 24 we expect is going to be even better and we see the outlook for the future. tom: macroeconomics is helping across the portfolio. i comes to activity, what are you seeing as you project out? >> the economy is growing and will continue growing. that is the best backdrop for

the country. tom: more dealmaking? >> more dear making and we see it in direct investment. both granular and from international companies as well as dealmaking among greek entities. a lot more for credit growth. the plan is underpinned by a net growth of five or 6% over the next few years and the stock exchange is revived on the back of investment grade, which would be merging. quite a lot of interest.

it was oversubscribed. very good investors. turning the corner. tom: greek capital markets are turning the corner. what is attracting investors? where is the money going and how do you expect the story to evolve? >> there are networks and a lot of activity in energy storage. a lot happening in pharma. business is an area where we play a role. greece is becoming a band actually in a position to grow

higher than europe. areas of interest that are significant, is not only hospitality, where we expect to have a better year than 2023. tom: your central bank governors said there need to be for cuts, does the ecb need a cut? >> everyone is expecting and projecting usually these counts. quite volatile as we all know. a few months back, we were talking about higher for longer. now we are talking about cuts. we expect to the first cut in june. two or three cuts happening.

the reality is the ecb is looking at the european economy. it's actually helping with inflation. tom: are you worried rates are too restrictive? >> the way they have been managing to end up with a soft landing as we have seen because it is not where we are right now in europe. it will be really bad if you compared it. going a little bit further as we speak from now on until the end of the year would help the european economy perform. tom: bacteria bank. what is the expected asian regulators will allow you to pay out dividends? >> this is an ongoing

discussion, a year-by-year discussion. for the year that just passed by, we are in discussions with regulators. it is honest dialogue and we have accounted in our financials. 10% payout ratio. that is something we expect to have been and a symbolic move. from now on and for the years to come there will be an annual discussion. profitability comes into the bank. i expect that in 2024 on the back of a successful 2023 and it symbolizes return to normality.

tom: does there need to be consolidation? >> the banking sector does not need to have more banks rather than last. tom: very different picture in banking versus germany. the greek economy outperforming the german economy. the ceo of greece's largest lender. elections in russia beginning today with vladimir putin all but certain to win. what it could mean, another term , for the russian economy and geopolitics. this is bloomberg.

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♪ >> it is nearly a quarter of a century since vladimir putin first to power. his adversaries seem unable to stifle his might. he is sure to win. he has outlasted world leaders and help power through seven british prime minister's and five u.s. presidents. in over two years since russia's invasion of ukraine, the economy weathers the impact of sanctions with china, brazil and india

buying russian oil. writing a tide of nationalism he presents himself as a protector. the death of alexi navalny removed russia's most powerful symbol of resistance. vladimir putin will have an opportunity to increase influence, continuing his influence with beijing. now with the war shifting, he is preparing for a term as president and long confrontation with the west. tom: that was bloomberg's max reporting on the russian election which gets underway today. it is the theme of today's big take. joining me is tony. few people know this better than you. the result is all but certain so

what are they hoping to achieve? tony: no risk of a recount, but one thing is the sense that russia is behind vladimir putin. russia is the united leader nan will try to achieve victory as he sees fit. it is a demonstration that russia is continuing and prosecuting its war. tom: what is it likely to mean in ukraine and with moscow's relations with the world? tony: russia has been making gains in ukraine because ukraine has been struggling with munitions. russia is taking advantage so after the election we may see an intensification of efforts and

putin has a long-term goal of reorienting the global balance to challenge the west and create a multi-polar world. that requires him to strengthen relations with the global south. tom: international opposition is there and we are seeing that as it stalls. we think about the funding held up. domestically, we reflect on the death and bravery of alexi navalny. is there any real opposition in russia? tony: not really. the death of alexi navalny was a real moment, he was the figurehead of the opposition. vladimir putin put him in prison and he died.

there is no one of stature who can step up and take over leadership. many of those who have been active in imposing putin are in exile because russia has laws making it difficult to dissent to the war. tom: how dependent is vladimir putin's russia on china? tony: very and increasingly. it looks to china for sales of energy because sales to europe are in decline and not returning. it looks for china because markets have been cut off. china is the only source of finance and the source of many goods russia will need. tom: tony, thank you indeed in dubai.

what the election would mean, the implications, thank you. now to the other stories making news. the leader of yemen's rebels says the group will expand tax to israeli ships in the indian ocean. they carried out three attacks this week and will not stop until the war in that fence. a ship broker said the ship traffic is up 85%. chuck schumer called for israel to hold elections and replace benjamin netanyahu. chuck schumer is the highest ranking jewish official in the u.s. and says netanyahu lost his way as the war rages on. the biden administration has sanctioned two settlements in the west bank and called on israel to end violence against palestinians.

the second time the administration has imposed sanctions on israeli settlers. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe, this is what we have been waiting for. umbrella union and the update on wage negotiations from japan. we have a breaking line and i can get you up, but we are expecting the update. the initial number was 5.8% in terms of wage negotiations. we saw toyota meeting the demands of the union and wages.

3.8% last year, we expect a higher number. we've got lines right now. japan unions win over 5%, well above the 3.8% last year. this number has been reported by the japanese news agency and will play into expectations that bank of japan has room to be able to move for the first time since 2007 week and increase interest rates to 0%. looking at the yen moving, strength moving through, up 1/10 of a percent versus usd. this locks in or gets closer to locking in sustainable wage increases their now in the japanese economy and that the

boj can make that move. not 100%. a life decision. this is the story across the decades, a 30 year project for japan. in the 1990's, it seems they are closer to that. let's have a look at ppi and inflation where it is a different story. producer prices build the picture that is a sticky environment and there is a gap between the comments of jay powell and cpi and producer prices. 1.6% was the number. year on year in february. services are leading gains and you are seeing the number above estimates. let's flip to oil and energy because this is crucial when you think about the inputs into the

broader basket. $81 a barrel. shrinking inventories, geopolitics of refineries and the view from opec-plus that they could extend cuts through the year and see a deficit in oil markets. there is a question as to whether opec-plus will hold that through the year. bloomberg saying there is a big gap between the oil and oil price. there is plenty more coming up of course. we will keep across iron or, copper and bitcoin. interesting divergence. iron or down 4% tied to the lack of liquidity impulse from china. they drained liquidity, a reminder that big stimulus will not come from china.

real estate will be challenged and demand for iron or will be weekend. copper is different. demand is picking up and you are seeing it breaking through 9000, up 5%. bitcoin taking a hit, concerns about bubbles. it had broken through 72,000. it is the biggest cryptocurrency, down in the session. markets today is up next. a fascinating day. japan in vocus on the wage story. this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: good morning from london. i'm anna edwards alongside guy johnson and tom mackenzie. with cash trade less than an hour away, here's what you need to know. the boj is