♪ >> i think inflation is a story of the past. you may have some hiccups here in the short-term that can create some near-term volatility. our highest conviction view this year was volatility. >> what i think is going to

happen is yes, inflation is going to come down slowly. >> that deep inflation tail risk has been cut off. if we were to get inflation to a level or we have to respect that again, that becomes the real risk to the market. >> inflation is sticking. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, several modes and annmarie hordern. jonathan: the third hour begins right now. your equity market on the s&p 500 just about positive after closing at all-time highs in yesterday's session and i climactic in so many ways. it is the calm after the storm that never came. lisa: that has been the story of the entire year. everyone is calling for a storm, he could be a bubble, can't take it, and guess what, we are now north of 5200. the price target people upgraded to just a year ago. this train keeps moving.

jonathan: i welcome it. looking ahead to retail sales tomorrow, we are light on data this morning but tomorrow, looking to claims, the estimate so far in the survey that is barely moving from the 217 in the previous week and historically, that is very, very low. annmarie: it is very low and obviously this is one part of the mandate that the fed is very happy with. under 4% for unemployment. remember the depths of the pandemic. also in biden came out yesterday to talk about the inflation report, obviously lead into the good things because you can extrapolate what you want to prove your thesis if things are getting better or if your concern things are getting worse. but again he pointed to the job market which i think the white house's way of saying we know inflation is still rough for some part of the consumer, but look at the job market. unemployment 4% for two years. lisa: people looking at the economy like it should trade like that coin.

it just is hard to get a signal given the fact that we are trying to read in bitcoin-like moves. jonathan: everyone wants everything fast. you want to turn the page on the chapter, get to the end of the book really quickly. lisa:lisa: i did that as a child, i was 100% that person who read the last page. annmarie: what? you rule in the entire book. lisa: i couldn't handle the suspense and then they could enjoy the book. if at this point we don't know what cycle we are in, that is the frustrating thing. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 look like this. equities totally unchanged to slightly positive, up by 0.07%. a long end of the curve later, 400 17.81 on the 10-year. 30 year, 4.34. >> i'm curious, remember yesterday when he said can you

imagine if we get hotter than expected cpi and weaker than expected 10 year option? we got a weaker than expected 10 year option, no one cared. do we get the same kind of thing today? really a key question. jonathan: coming up, volatility across asset classes, fcc commissioner brendan carr joins us to discuss the house vote about to end stephen stanley looking ahead to next week's that decision. is forecasting only 50 basis points cuts this year and those cuts don't begin until after the election. looking forward to that it would later. stocks hitting fresh all-time highs. equity decline lasted only a few minutes giving way to a rebound, pushing the s&p more than 1%. that move only happening on a handful of days since march 2022, typically on the back of a

lower inflation print and not a higher one. equity volatility has declined significantly over the past year, low volatility isn't a unique feature of the equity market but a phenomenon we are observing across every asset class. suggesting that what is driving lower is very much macro fundamental in nature rather than equity specific. i'm pleased to say that mandy joins us now. mandy, last time we spoke you said this market was biased toward future gains. is that still the case? >> is very much still the case. last year you could justify it because of positioning and the need to chase the upside to start the year. guess what, exact same dynamic playing out in the derivatives market. still seeing extremely low levels of skew, meaning no demand for downside and everyone chasing that upside. a lot of questions about whether

that is euphoria. one thing i would point to to maybe say that this potentially could be justified is if you just look at the underlying index, one of the things that we have noted is that s&p has been more volatile on the upside than the downside which is very different from how it historically behaves. historically, markets crash lower and grind higher and that is why puts traded premium to calls. the vicious moves have all come to the upside. more volatility on updates than down days, hence the need to use options to manage that volatility becoming greater on the upside. jonathan: would you describe yesterday as a crash higher? >> exactly. the bigger moves have all come from the upside, not the downside. you have to go back over 20 years to find a similar period where we see this inversion in terms of how markets are behaving. lisa: are you seeing a lot more money coming in, learned in --

lured in by fomo? do you have a sense of the anatomy of that? >> coming into the year, when you talk about where the next light higher is going to come from, on the macro side people have reduced expectations, but look at earnings. earnings came out very strong. that is what is going to propel stats higher going over it is the fundamentals. you look at the money on the sidelines, can positioning increase from here? i think it can as certainly people are using options as a way to lever up there equity exposure. >> we had a number of guests say that the expect volatility to pick up momentarily. i know you laugh because everyone has been saying that for the past five years. i'm wondering what that even matters if the volatility is to the upside. does that increase in volatility even matter? >> i think it does. people tend to do their portfolio.

realize levels and volatility matters, but to a point. when and where it is happening also matters and the fact that right now it has been happening to the upside is what is underpinning a lot of the dislocation we are seeing in the derivatives market. annmarie:annmarie: is this what you call how to play option comes to u.s. exceptionalism? >> everyone is well aware that the u.s. rally is very much driven by a handful of names, a huge concentration. to start the year we have seen in terms of themes, if you've been looking elsewhere globally, can year of outperform, can japan outperform, emerging markets? one of the things that we are excited about next week as we are launching options off three new indices to kind of help investors play that international vs u.s. theme. lisa: how much of this is coming

from institutions in terms of the trading and how much is coming from day traders that are really into the options? we were talking about this a while ago, how much is this people playing and trying to get a hold of it through their robinhood accounts? >> it's both. over the past couple years it is certainly notable but it is not just fomo, institutional investors. growth and income option strategies of the past couple years as well. institutional investors and retail investors alike, but also for income. jonathan: there is a gambling element to this as well. you continuously and consistently said that is not something we should be concerned about. why should we be? >> when you look at the data and the breakdown and the flow, it is actually very balanced. that is what is surprising to a lot of people.

absolutely there is a segment of investors using zero they options for speculative purposes, but like i mentioned before, this also a very meaningful segment. when the buying, selling a balanced, the net impact of the market is very diminished? jonathan: you talked about the buyers being positioned to the upside. is that the same? if you look across all global indices, russell 2000 currently stands out as the index with flattest levels of skew and that is really on the backside. positioning for a broadening out of the equity rally away from the large caps toward equal weight s&p or small caps, that is definitely where the interest is been. jonathan: here's your bloomberg brief. >> german automaker volkswagen is expecting orders in western

europe to pick up as it updates popular models. the company is looking to rebuild momentum and push forward with an ambitious savings plan as competition grows abroad. the volkswagen cfo telling bloomberg a drop in china's market share can be eased by growth in north america. >> we are deliberately prepared to give up market share in the next one or two years in order to find a solid compromise between margins and volume. but from 2026 onwards, -- >> china's byd overtook volkswagen at the best selling automaker in china last your. u.s. mortgage demand is growing as rates drop back below 7%. data from the mortgage bankers association says applications for home purchases grew 4.7%, hitting a four-week high. despite mortgage rates falling,

rates are still twice as high as they were in 2021. the data covers more than three quarters of all residential mortgage applications in the united states. in a dark side to the weight loss frenzy. u.k. authorities seizing thousands of packages containing fake versions of ozempic. estimate for the treatment has risen, authorities say so has activity by organized crime plus loan entrepreneurs looking to cash in, many advertising and social media. patients across the world seven hospitalized after using counterfeits with some containing lethal doses of insulin. jonathan: that is pretty scary, isn't it? i'm not sure we should describe them as loan entrepreneurs. lisa: it really raises this question how quickly is this getting developed for it is in distributed in a way that people are looking for? jonathan: up next, tiktok in the hot seat. >> your platform is basically an

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information can be accessed chinese employees or subject to the dictates of the chinese communist party. why should you not be banned in this country? >> senator, that is not accurate. a lot of what you describe we collect, we don't. >> is 100% accurate. jonathan: a bill that would force tiktok's parent company to divest the amp, or face a ban. tiktok is plenty to exhaust all legal challenges before any kind of sales considered. the company declined to comment percent in the legislation is the predetermined outcome, a total ban in the united states. the sec commissioner joins us now for more. i've got your comments in front of me. you called it before a clear and present danger to national security. i'm sure tiktok would disagree with that characterization as well. can you give us some concrete examples of why you think that is the case? >> the track record with the maligned conduct is very clear. for years they told u.s.

lawmakers don't worry, u.s. user data isn't even existing inside china and then a blockbuster report came out in 20 that showed in fact everything is seen inside of china. that is keystroke patterns, biometrics, certain browsing history, location. second of all, what the ccp are doing with that data is very nefarious. personnel in beijing use that data to surveilled the locations of specific americans, journalists who were writing negative stories about tiktok. third, they said we are going to wall off u.s. user data and the wall street journal came out and said personnel in beijing are still giving access to that data, sensitive u.s. user data after agreeing to wall it off. in the record goes on from there including bytedance having a ccp sale embedded in its leadership. so this is about the maligned

conduct beholding to the ccp has been engaged in. >> you talk about walling off that data, project texas. has it not work at all? >> not at all. one of the materials had tiktok safety officials themselves saying it remains to be seen whether beijing can still get access to u.s. user data after mitigation like that are put in place. second of off, that walling off data with part of budget texas and still, beijing got access to it and even tiktok's ceo has that project texas will data except when we allow it, pursuant to what they claim are new controls. project texas is about as secure as a siv at the end of the day. >> yesterday and capitol hill, a lot of individuals coming out to talk about free speech on the progressive left and the right. ron paul saying he's going to block anything contrary to the constitution.

if there is free speech issue at play here? >> rand paul has been great on these liberty issues. this particular build does not trigger a first amendment concern for one main reason. the supreme court has drawn a clear line between regulations based on content of speech on the one hand and this plainly is a conduct law, meaning we are acting because of the demonstrated maligned national security threat of tiktok, not because of the content of anybody's speech. the bill was narrowly tailored because it simply requires divestment, meaning the millions of americans that love tiktok, i'm not one of them, but they can continue to use the application any more way. the constitution does not compel us to require a national security threat to continue to persist. >> there's one politician in dcu certainly likes tiktok, and that is president biden. they feel they are able to reach

the youth. if tiktok is divested, there is a sale, would that mean the biting campaign could continue using it, and do you think it would be safer? >> a lot of people ralph that concerned about the biden administration being on tiktok but officials have been very clear that there is a national security threat here. that is why this bill square is the circle because than anybody's campaign could continue or start to be on tiktok but without that national security risk that is present today. annmarie: given the fact that we for that from president biden, i'm curious about your comments president trump needs to be less clear about what he thinks of this bill, saying that there's a lot of good, there's a lot of bad tiktok, talking about how it increases the prevalence of meta-. what do you make of his comments? >> president trump fundamentally reshaped washington, d.c. to understand the serious threat posed by the ccp. he's also raised concerns as i

have with the conduct of big tech companies that are based right here in silicon valley. those are real concerns. he pushed for reform which i supported and had hoped we would have gotten across the finish line by now, and we haven't. but tiktok present obviously a threat that is fundamentally different from u.s. big tech companies. from all of my concerns, and i have many, once we deal with the national security threat from tiktok, once we break that tie, we should be very quickly, as president trump has outlined on section 230 reform and antidiscrimination obligation that would apply part of the board, but until you break that link to the ccp, a lot of other reforms are not going to work out. >> but it does feel like he flip-flopped on this. he wanted to ban it under his administration, it then got held up in court and now he is saying he is really not so sure about it. do you think we could see it different if he was to become president of the united states, a different view on tiktok

because of his concerned on how big meta is? >> the reason this bill is such a smart approach is because it is not a ban, it is a divestment. it would have tiktok go to a different -- it doesn't need to be a u.s. company, just any company not tied to china, north korea, russia or iran. it could be there anyway that doesn't percent in national security threats would keep that competition high. >> we seem to be ill-equipped to deal with these issues. it's been about four years since we've been talking about this and hardly anything has happened terms of passing proper policy to do something about these can earns. i think back to china, it is straightforward. xi comes out and says no, that is it. twitter, facebook, no access. why are we so ill-equipped in the west deal with these threats and how do we go about changing that? >> we certainly have a very

different system obviously than they do in china and some people raised during china engage in reciprocal action based on that? facebook and other u.s. tech companies are already banned in china so yes, to move more slowly way and obviously don't underestimate the fact that bytedance has put every single amount of lobbyist dollars possible role this, and people look at the 118th congress and they have a hard time getting things done as a general matter, but this is one where speaker johnson can land a significant legislative and. not just on a tough issue, but on a technology issue where it is sometimes difficult for congress to act. that is why the congress committee chair rogers, that blockbuster hearing last march, i think that really set things in motion. people wish he would've gone faster, sure, but arriving here today when there is a vote in the house is a significant moment. >> significant moment in the house, but what happens next in the senate? >> i feel pretty good about the

odds in the senate as well. people have forgotten this, but senator schumer joined in a letter in 20, raising serious concerns about tiktok's national security threats of this is a long-standing issue for senator schumer over there, and any, many public is as well. a lot of the focus has been in the house up to now, shifted senate. hopefully the bill passes today in the house and then things can move over there. jonathan: do you believe there is a content issue in any way, shape, or form as well? >> not at all. sometimes we focus on the way the algorithm performs, how would just shows content that is drastically different than any other social media that happens to align with the ccp, but it is not the content that is the concern for me. the content shows such a drastically different operation of the algorithm that it goes to conduct and to ccp controls.

it is just further evidence of ccp control. it is not about the government acting based on content. someone could take a pen and make it right the most salacious anti-american propaganda they want and there is nothing the government could do. but when you take that pen and use it to break into a building, that is illegal conduct, we can take the pen. it is no defense that you say you were using it to write previously. jonathan: we will catch up soon. brendan car on the upcoming vote that is going to take place down in washington, d.c. lisa: i'm just sitting here thinking about that. as the algorithm content or conduct? i think that is ultimately a key question for a lot of these places because what you're looking at the algorithm side of what you see, how often you see it, but is it necessarily the content itself? >> when he talked about the nefarious flow back to china and the ability to wish what you see, that is when he said this the conduct of that algorithm.

maybe that content wouldn't end up at the top priority risk of a tiktok user if it wasn't for that algorithm that is really where he takes issue with tiktok and it being led by bytedance, which is based in china. jonathan: remember david rosenberg talked about wall street, wanted everything asked. this is going to take a while. >> it already has. talk about exhausting legal challenges. jonathan: this is a feature of what we have, and not a bug. it takes time. lisa: and there is the question of what the u.s. is up against.

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♪ jonathan: stocks pulling back just a touch on the s&p 500. -50 point 1%, down by about one third on the nasdaq just moments ago, the last mile problem for inflation, sticky services inflation, other evidence that inflation is not only path to sustainably return the target. what does that mean for this bond market? shaping up as follows, to year yield hired by three basis points. jonathan: if you take a look at the sticky inflation, the atlanta fed put that this metric, you were actually seeing it surge backup to 4%. this is the wrong direction. i put that out on at or twitter,

this is backwards looking, everything is going to be fine. ultimately this goes down to a belief structure which is the reason why the market doesn't believe the data suggests that. lisa: we are data dependent, so. jonathan: here's my issue, we are moving the goal posts. steve was right in the following sense. steve is basically saying that they want to cut. they want to cut. maybe the data is not on their side right now but could they move the goalpost? i think they could if they want to. lisa: they already have. one data point doesn't matter. two data points, ok, may become a little bit more. in the past it would have been something that was key. suddenly it doesn't matter that much anymore. jonathan: all-time highs, no one cares. going to move on to foreign exchange.

a couple of members of the governing council of the european central bank talking about june as the time to go. the bank of france governor was talking about when spring is in europe which is from they to june, so it could be april to june. it is such a european type stock. then we talk about the calendar and the seasons. lisa: let's talk about flowers blooming. he is a wonderful man, and if you're listening, please join us, but it would be very curious to hear his rationale about why the ecb could wait until june in tandem with the federal reserve even though the backdrop is incredibly different. it raises this question, where are the goalpost and how n'sync are they around the world? jonathan: which would make it easier for japan.

a slightly weaker japanese yen, but we are talking about automakers toyota, honda, mazda raising wages for japanese workers and ultimately teeing up the first hike in a long, long time in japan. lisa: tune in for special coverage overnight on labor negotiations. it's going to be really great. he's going to be from his kitchen in his refrigerator that is perfectly organized. jonathan: you're making the sound like a celibate from alabama. >> it is so big. jonathan: i can cook as well. i will make that happen. >> he is pretty serious about it. jonathan: we won't be doing that. the rematch no one wanted, president biden it's donald trump clinching their respective parties nominations, formally entering into what is likely to be the costliest and longest general election in recent years. this as trump continues to take further control of the gop, firing over 60 staffers and

installing three allies including his daughter-in-law the leadership roles. trump leading biden in head-to-head matchups across seven swing states, and knowing the former president, waiting for a running mate is going to drag on. i would imagine he will take a long time and build and climax at the right time. annmarie: he actually might do it in public, some of this conspiracy or mysteriousness about who he is going to pick. a lot of people are going to be flocking to mar-a-lago if they think they have a chance at it. it is the election, the rematch no one wants. sorry if you are breaking up and seeing this news, it is official. in our last bloomberg:, 52% of voters a biden stool. nearly 60% say trump is dangerous. these are the often the american people have which is why they are frustrated and why you see people like rfk. i'm not sure the new york jets

are going to be happy with that, but that is why you see his numbers go up and some of these polls. people feel like i don't like this system. jonathan: i'm not sure the new york jets are too worry based on the polling. let's put that out there. lisa: honestly, i think that everyone wants to make this a show, trump in particular. it's going to be apprentice, vice president style. jonathan: starting the promo for the movie eight months before it comes out. a couple of social media things, those 10 second burst. those kind of things. anyway, let's talk about this. the boeing follow continues, united airlines telling the plane to stop building as it switches to rival airbus. boeing undergoes criminal and regulatory investigations by the doj and faa. southwest says it will have to cut capacity thanks to reduced

deliveries, the airline saying it doesn't expect to receive any of the long-awaited planes this year. we caught up an analyst a little bit earlier this morning. mid-single digit the summer? >> i took that to mean 5%, 6%, 7%. how much is this simply because they want bigger margins? >> and baggage fees going up about five dollars. lisa: that really bothers you. annmarie: you know they are coming after you even if you have a small, cross body bag on, they want that to stop in your carry-on, so carreon is becoming more difficult and they are starting to become more aggressive. so carry is more difficult and now they are going to charge more for your check bags. jonathan: you are not strategic about that, not trying to hide it? the suit drives me nuts. i'm so careful about keeping the suit on wrinkled and then they offer to hang it up once you get on the plane anyway and you shove it in your baggie, it

makes no sense at all. lisa: if you were with a different airline maybe it would be a problem because it's not every airline. jonathan: you want me to go to your airline. let's talk about your friend, bank of france governor saying the ecb is liable to make its first cut the spring targeting the june meeting most likely. the bank is very pragmatic and see depending on the data most ecb officials in agreement with many also indicating june's meeting as the right time to cut. could further bolster the case for a rate cut given the difference between europe and the united states at the moment on that front. >> also talking about spring and saying june as part of spring. christine lagarde cold june summer, so let's just say pretty much all signs are pointing to this spring, summer, whatever you like to call it, june cut. jonathan: when this winter and summer start, and spring end?

>> stephen stanley of santander right on track. while inflation is headed in the right direction, it may not call to the satisfaction until later in the year. market expectations for the timing and magnitude of that cuts are too aggressive. i expect rates reduced by 50 basis points beginning in the fourth quarter after the election. good morning. do you think the federal reserve dot plot might move your way next week, or is that too soon? >> i think it's a little too soon. you listen carefully to the fed officials and they don't seem to have changed their fundamentally since december. i think they are probably believed that the market has come back in closer alignment with where they are. jonathan: the fed is in a quiet period right now so we can't get the reaction till next week.

just tease out what is going to go into pce and whether they can take any comfort whatsoever from what happened yesterday. >> a little bit. january can be with the worst-case scenario because the numbers were very high in the aggregate but it was the noisy stuff that was going down and the sticky stuff that was really high. but we knew going in the january cans to be a little bit of an aberration, you tend to get high numbers. so february was better from that sense, still not good. we did see a little bit of a deceleration on the services side, but services prices are still running very high. for services up 0.5, which was down from much higher in january but that is still nowhere near what the fed would like to see. lisa: so that are you surprised by the lack of reaction markets? i'm talking stocks, but also your world yield went up, but

not by much. >> it is partly a function of where we are. a couple months ago we had as much is 170 basis points the year. we got almost all the way down, in the high 70's a week or two ago and the getting of the week we were between 90 and 100. now we are back into the 80's, so i don't think that the adjustment needed to be as large as it needed to be. >> does that mean the market needs to get its head around the idea of truly higher rates for longer after mark the idea that neutral rates make the significantly higher than they were in the past, and that will reset a lot of expectations. how much do you agree with that and lean into the idea that we are not all that restrictive? >> i do think policy is restrictive but it feels like the neutral rate is considerably higher than it was for the pandemic. my guess is probably in the low threes.

the fed is still saying 2.5 officially, but when they are pressed on it, pretty much every official is saying is probably higher, we just don't think they have engaged on that. it doesn't make a big difference for them right now because the policy rates, who cares if neutral is 2.5 or three? eventually they are going to have to come to that and make a much more settled decision. >> it kind of makes a difference that part of the decision -- disinflationary trend have nothing to do with them and that monetary policy has been irrelevant regarding what we've seen play out over the next six months in the data. >> well you will never hear anyone at the fed say that. jonathan: would you say that? >> i don't think the economy is on a cooling path but it is a very gradual path. fiscal policy and a number of other things that have helped continue with strength. >> six take goods disinflation of six months ago.

wasn't that just a supply-side story? core goods, should they be worried about that? >> i wouldn't be too worried about that. it is probably going to settle out around flat which is where it was running before the pandemic but again, the services piece is the piece that they focused on, the piece that really matters for the underlying inflation rate. maybe they've gotten a little bit of progress, but certainly not nearly enough. lisa: a lot of guests say it is all about housing and that people are looking to that sphere, especially because argued that the fed does have greater influence over that market. we are seeing mortgage rates come down a touch and people flood back into the market. does that tell you what financial conditions easing does in terms of just basically giving ammunition to an already pretty hot economy? >> there's no doubt that housing demand is very sensitive to

mortgage rates. housing demand has picked up the march -- margin and every time they arise, it falls off. the problem is on the other side of the lesion, the supply-side of the when the mortgage rate goes from seven to 6.5 it is not going to encourage those folks to move. you can move the needle on the demand side but if you can't move the needle on this by side, the market remains tight which is why home prices have been rising and at least part of the reason why we see the shelter cost has proven more stubborn than people anticipated. >> to talk about the tailwind for fiscal, but some trackers say fiscal policy has only basically helped growth 0.2%. do you see it as a bigger component? >> i don't know if it is a huge component now. it was unprecedentedly important

during and just after the pandemic because the government distributed trillions of dollars of cash to businesses and households. i think from a household perspective, we are kind of back to normal on that front. i think households have either spent down or seen the purchasing power of that money eroded by lucian. but households and businesses are still in very good shape from invalid she perspective, which means they don't have as large a need to borrow, and so the sensitivity of the economy to higher rates is not as intense as it might otherwise be. jonathan: chairman pound conference statement, i know based on your note you think he has basic communication errors over the last few months. when he says a little bit more evidence, do you know what that means, what are they? >> i think he was too dovish in december and probably too dovish again last week when he said they were not far, because that was out of

step with almost everybody else in the committee had been saying over the prior month. it's interesting because in january when he said we need greater confidence, he made it seem like we need one or two more good inflation readings. we gotten to more bad ones since then but then other fed officials came out with the same etheridge that it wasn't as simple as that. it was more about the composition, which is something i've been talking about. you've got an improvement on the good side that has the good handful of categories, but the services numbers are not showing progress and that is what a lot of officials have said, they need to see a disbursement of the moderation. jonathan: is he a bad communicator or just really dovish? >> that is a good question, i don't know the answer to that. in the context of last week you have to remember the audience. he is talking in front of congress, he doesn't want to antagonize so he is kind of throwing that carrot out there.

we will see what he has to say. next week the audience is the financial market so we will see what he has to say. jonathan: looking for 50 basis points of cuts, and this cuts won't come until after the election. equities turning slightly negative, let's get you some stories elsewhere this morning. >> shares of dollar tree are lower in the premarket after the company's first quarter earnings guidance missed estimates. fourth-quarter sales and earnings also came insured. plus the company expects to shut about 600 family dollar stores in the first half of fiscal 2024. the dollar tree ceo said he hopes favorable freight rate ease pressure on the company later this year. shell is cutting at least 20% of jobs at the company restructures to reduce costs. the cuts are expected to be announced in april.

the division has several hundred employees handling mergers and acquisitions for shale. the oil giant has already made similar moves across other gated that it's business, including low carbon solutions, chemicals and i.t. citadel founder ken griffin said the fed should move more slowly in lowering rates so they don't have to reverse course later. speaking at the futures industry association conference, he said pausing direction back toward higher rate most devastating course of action to pursue. you think the fed will be slower than people are expecting for that very reason. the next policy decision is due out next wednesday. jonathan: thank you very much. up next, last call for tiktok. >> the track record with tiktok's maligned conduct is very clear at this point. this is about the maligned conduct that is beholden to the ccp.

jonathan: that conversation up next. this is bloomberg. j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research. get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan.

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♪ jonathan: aqueous just about unchanged on the s&p 500. opening bell, with: 40 minutes away. yield higher by three basis points. dollar slightly weaker, the euro stronger. crude getting closer to $80 per barrel. under surveillance this morning, last call for tiktok. >> the track record with tiktok's maligned conduct is very clear at this way. everything is seen inside of china based on these materials. personnel in beijing are still getting access to that data, sensitive u.s. user data after agreeing to wall it off.

this is about the maligned conduct that an entity that is beholden to the ccp is engaged in. jonathan: that house set to go in just over an hour that orthodox parent company to sell the app or face a ban in the united states. ed, from your perspective, are you thinking about suitors yet for this particular app or is that too soon? >> everyone is making the kind of assumption that it is a foregone lucian. i believe the politics to amh, but if this goes through the house there is a concern that on the other cited the table, this allows whichever sitting president we have some overreach. some over-censorship beyond the aims of de-risking tiktok's relationship with china. but you guys showed the statement from tiktok earlier in your program. for them it seems to be a foregone conclusion as well that the ban in the u.s. will be

effective and the only way they can move forward is to find a buyer. i'll really end my thought on look at the actions of the biden administration and the antitrust context and ask which of the mega tech companies in this country would be realistically allowed to buy tiktok and then whittle it down from there. annmarie: a year ago, they were saying shout -- sell your shares or face a ban. the direction of travel and tiktok for the most part is not welcomed in the united states in a bipartisan action. >> on that sense, in your interview with commissioner carr, he made it really simple, black and white. all you need to do is sever the tie or cut the link. he even said that it doesn't matter if the buyer is a non-us entity, as long as it is not china. that makes it seem very straightforward, but i don't

know that that is the case. lisa: i'm wondering about the confusion around what exactly the u.s. wants to do. because when we were speaking with the fcc commissioner he was talking about algorithms as though that were separate from content do we have a sense of what the problem is in terms of how they are going to remedy it, whether it is not a sale, not a ban? >> you also discussed within project texas, the housing of u.s. user data in oracle-owned and operated data centers in this country, which means that on paper, project texas woodblock any visibility of the chinese government or any chinese bytedance staff from seeing the data. but in the opinion of fcc commissioner carr, that has not been effective. he cites reports about documents showing that there was still some accessibility on the china side. the thing about this is there are 170 million americans that use tiktok.

president biden has been using tiktok as part of his campaign. and so our reporting suggests that a sale is what is going to be pushed for in the first instance. tiktok sees it as a last resort, but we are talking about this or framing it as an outright ban of the platform in the country in that is the feasibility question i would raise. jonathan: before you go i want to talk about former president trump. most people think he won't be successful in his attempt to blow this up, but you can see based on his communication that he seems to consider meta a much bigger issue and in trying to work out what that might mean for mark zuckerberg and the company get a second term. >> he has sort of flip-flop. you will see some of the upside in meta shares of late at that narrative has built out. also look at shares of rommel. i think they jumped 80% yesterday.

it is highly analogous that the instagram platform and tiktok for all intents and purposes are short for vertical video. he is positioning tiktok remaining in this country at the lesser of two evils to his mind and he is highly influential, all of these not on those platforms. that is why when i am preparing for my show later today, those are the stocks i will watch in the immediate term. jonathan: a few hours away, ed ludlow and caroline hyde on bloomberg technology. we get that vote in the later this morning, about an hour or so away. then tomorrow we talked about the economic data. lisa: i know this is sort of counterintuitive, but how much do consumers keep spending and how much do they push back against some of the higher prices? annmarie: always seen is the u.s. consumer is healthy, even

though people say they are a little bit concerned about where prices are going. they keep going up and spending. jonathan: coming up tomorrow, we will catch up. this was bloomberg surveillance. this was bloomberg surveillance.

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>> i'm dani burger, in for jonathan ferro. when it comes for futures markets, another record on wall street with hotter cpi. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open," with jonathan ferro. dani: coming up, the equity rally stalls falling -- following another record-breaking session on wall street.