>> the stock market rallied because the bond market rallied. and that's just not typical. >> markets are a little bit more volatile right now. >> i don't think we are -- >> it always looks like a soft landing just before recession. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, a lisa abramowicz. >> live from new york city this morning, good morning for audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz.

your equity market positive, s&p 500 futures if we make it day nine it's the longest in two decades. tom: it is the way we are doing this, futures up 10, all that happening in the last 20 minutes bread we have green on the screen. a lot of micro stories wrapped around one thing. starving for growth. microsoft up 17% just as one example. $2.7 trillion market cap. jonathan: tk, nvidia up by 218%. look to the outlook from goldman sachs. give me some happy talk. the hard part is over. we see only limited recession risk. more disinflation in store over the next year. that's the view from goldman. lisa: the flipside is what our

companies at. the idea of the worst is over. are we seeing economic softness and this is the question given what we heard yesterday and the ticking higher and unemployment rates. >> talking about 2.4% global growth which is by any definition a recession i think i was lectured on that a years of -- a year ago. you get the slowdown off of the inflation or disinflation but this news overnight of chinese disinflation and outright price decline across the world. people starving to find growth. jonathan: pork prices at the epicenter and as you know there was a hope for a demand boon that did not materialize in china. two things happened in the afternoon. a break on the tenure yesterday. yields lower. the commodity market regulating

to the break of 80 on brent. how soon before we are sitting around this table talking about not support but fear because it lower yields mean something. >> the bond market i was riveted yesterday over that successful tenure margin. we will have a report that could take the 7:00 hour. the answer is there is a growth fear and an economic growth fear but in the meantime you get a search for growth and that's -- search for growth. lisa: i am deeply humbled, this is the year of narrative led. slowdown possibly behind some of the oil price decline and then the head of the energy administration came out that said the demand is not week. it is all a ploy. this in a press conference a couple hours ago. jonathan: wait a week.

positive by 0.2% this morning. in the bond market yields by about three basis points. similar story in the commodity market. $75. >> it's been such a quiet week for economic data. we get initial jobless claims. we got no other data of note this week. it comes at a time pointing out unemployment has half a percentage point. that has not happened without a recession following on buried that i think is important to watch. u.s. treasury selling 30 year notes. this follows the successful auction. the more interesting thing was it was not a failure and that's all the market needed. jonathan: dead on. -- tom: dead on.

that is the gloom crew that is out there. life goes on even with $1 trillion. jonathan: you say that looking at bramo. tom: this is like in the movie my favorite year when their planning the shows. john, tell her she is wrong. [laughter] jonathan: carry-on please. lisa: jay powell will be speaking at an imf panel that includes the governor of the bank of israel. should be interesting given the recent developments and moderated by the imf's chief economist. today, does he come out and give a framework of how he's looking at the economy and what the threshold is to cut rates because that's currently a big part of the discussion. tom: we've got such a wonderful guest. i want to your what ken has to

say. >> it would lather -- rather listen to him than powell. >> my good friend. jonathan: joining us around the table, chris, good morning to you. your men is participated about this in the last week. a massive year today gain by 165% or so. are you staying with that stock. >> they live off of advertising, there's a death they are a company that's growing. it's harder to grow and so it's not that expensive. the outlook is good. jonathan: it's amazing to see what they been able to achieve. what kind of numbers are you thinking about. >> on the last call they signaled they would invest in the metaverse and ai and other initiatives. growing topline gives you room. >> it was wrapped around

securities analysis. you've got all of those manila folders behind your desk for double each stock. what do you do with berkshire hathaway and their massive cash buildup or the massive cash buildup across all of corporate america. warren buffett has a size of cash that's just surreal. how do you own that? >> warren buffett is probably the greatest of all time and of cash -- he is someone i want to give it to. a great set of businesses, a lot of reinvestment opportunities. >> what is the catalyst here. saying apple was going to buy somebody. you guys have been doing this since time began. what is the new thing about all of that cash the people at warren buffett holds.

chris: the opportunity may be in a few years if we enter recession, markets structurally change and he is left there with a pile of cash it's harder for others. lisa: it's difficult to know what to price some of these tech names and entertainment names. will that be the story of solid revenues or will it be the hope and promise of new technologies. the former disney chair has said overnight he was talking about the potential cost reduction of the use of artificial intelligence to create animated films by a factor of 10. how do you price that out for some entertainment names? chris: it is difficult to do and one of the reasons you've got nvidia and others reaching such highs is nobody else knows what to invest in to take advantage of this. it's good to have a much bigger impact on the back of the office, things like production, customer service.

>> nobody knows what else to invest in in order to take advantage of this. is this basically a default. we know this will big -- this will be big. is that essentially what we are looking at? chris: i think it is as simple as that. lisa: at what point do you know it is a bubble versus something real. chris: that's always the question. i don't want to call aia bubble necessarily but it's been important. >> a name we reported yesterday, a walt disney company. the cuts taking place. bob iger and the company announcing $2 billion of cuts. what do you make of the strategy? chris: going from fixed to built i think is the headline. stabilizing the business and is now focused on reinvesting in the studio which has probably been neglected for the last few years. >> the park business is just

phenomenal looking at yesterday. chris: it continues to be phenomenal for disney and comcast and the question is how cyclical does it get. when the consumer runs out of money, it is an expensive proposition. tom: the public does not care about individual stock analysis, i'm going to buy an index fund. you two guys, your thoughts on the preponderance of index funds. >> a great question. the flows have been depressive. somebody needs to be rewarded for price discovery and that can be very painful. that's what we do. in an imaginary world where it's all passive and there's massive inefficiency that would not work. at some point it leads to opportunity. >> years and years is a huge shareholder. full disclosure i don't own any of it now. two days later boom it was taken

out. i'm looking for a great zombie rolloff. will we see takeouts in banking. will we see that in media after the trademark yesterday. when is the gabelli rollout plan? >> there will be consolidation in media for sure. it's probably over the next few years. you have an ftc that has been allergic to that. lisa: when you look at the suite of entertainment names, who do you think will be the ultimate winners? chris: who has a seat at the table for streaming and clearly it's disney, it's youtube which is one of the soon largest video distributors in the country. warner bros. discovery has a case there. what happens to paramount at amc and peacock remains to be seen. >> talking about apple

potentially taking it out. bob iger saying it would be a standalone streaming business. talking about that is one of the main pillars of the company, what do you expect to happen there? >> sports rights is tribal. the ratings of held up quite well and so espn has done better than the general achievement business. it is going to be a direct to consumer business. how big that market is will be a question. liberty media has been for many years, john malone, having their big meeting today, within liberty media including formula one but especially the braves. >> there's a question about what happens in cable as we see wireless convergence. how do cable companies compete in the world were so much as wireless.

what's the future of media. how do streaming fit in with this business. >> hearing a lot of stories about reduced ticket prices, reduced hotel prices in vegas next weekend. >> our conversations here over the next two or three days we have two heavyweights lined up. christian horner, red bull tomorrow. catching up after their big victory this season. and then next monday. >> we think about horse racing for the next season, how does red bull improve on their car over the season. i'm so dumb on this. but this is great. back to back red bull and mercedes. >> a very different question on monday. how do you close the gap. >> especially with george russell coming up as well. fantastic to catch up with you.

chris there with the latest on his investments. participating in this massive rally over the last week. >> i've got a huge comfort in this. the answer is this is what mario and chris invented actually looking at companies and having the courage to hold them until value is discovered. jonathan: we will continue this in the next hour. julian emanuel well in about 15 minutes time. yields higher by three basis points. equities advance following the longest winning streak in two years. can we extend it this morning. good morning.

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>> i do not think israel is interested in a cease-fire at this point. hamas is not interested in a two

state solution they are dedicated to the destruction of israel. there needs to be new leadership of the israelis and palestinians in order to have any chance of some kind of a peace deal, especially a two state solution. jonathan: speaking at the bloomberg new economy forum. eight day winning streak on the s&p 500 could well become nine. if we make it day nine it's the longest daily winning streak going back to 2004 on the s&p 500. came down through some interesting levels yesterday in the market. into the four 40's briefly and a few weeks ago talking about 5% right back down 50 basis points. high this morning three basis points. 75, 74 on crude.

after breaking into the 80's yesterday we are at $80 flat right now. positive by 0.6%. tom: that's the global price clearly affected far more by the suez canal and eastern mediterranean geopolitics. what i would emphasize in the rally we've had is the real yield we've lost scope and scale. if you asked me about a real handle 2.81% i would say the world has changed. .50 down to 2.18 and the world changes for the better. small business get some breathing room. jonathan: can we leave behind the fears of a couple weeks ago. lisa: does it really matter for businesses if on paper something goes up half a percent. before you have to change financing goals. at a certain point it's moving so fast. >> the price of the mortgage coming down from eight to seven.

i'm not sure that's how it works lisa. i'm not sure that's how it works tom in the real world. >> we are simply going to have to see. what's more important. november 25 alabama auburn or december 6, the fourth gop debate at the university of alabama. to get us to the next gop debate, jennifer joins us at invesco. jennifer what will you look for december 6 at the next gop debate. >> i think i would be looking to see who will be on that stage. each next debate has more restrictive thresholds and so yesterday was interesting because you had only five folks on the stage and they really had more time to get after each other but also get their message out. i will be interested to see who

is on that stage in december. >> are they all running for vice president? jennifer: it certainly feels that way especially as we look at these polls and we see no one really taking any of that margin out. he's 30 plus depending on the stage -- state and even in iowa and new hampshire where they are focused they take their responsibilities very seriously. they are very focused on this primary and trump really is just continuing to rein in their states. >> do republicans have a messaging problem around abortion? >> i think this week was a reality check for republicans in ohio and virginia and kentucky. they are going to have to try and find some way to approach this going into 2024 that mitigates some of the problems they are having because if you

look at the democratic playbook going into 2024 we will see abortion playing a major role especially in those 18 plus districts for the house members where republicans are sitting in those seats but also in those battleground states we will be looking to see if those referendums are put on the ballot. >> at a certain point there is a question around the state elections versus the national ones saying they are very different in nature. are you saying this time is different and social issues could make the difference at a time when there are all these other issues including economic ones. >> i think voters are motivated with -- they don't want something taken away from them and that's what we are seeing playing out in the abortion debate. if that is on the ballot it is going to play a role until this

issue is sort of settled law and i don't think we are close to that yet. we are still debating on the state level and there is some who want to see debate on that national level. >> with the evolution of nikki haley, it's a remarkable story. in south carolina absolutely remarkable story. how is the former governor evolving debate to debate. >> nikki haley, former governor of south carolina was a popular republican figure back then. she really took on an international role that she did quite well and republicans were very pleased with her and she's been able to play into sort of the more moderate republican but also appeals to the conservative republican and trump republican.

she has not offended in any way and i think that her abilities on the debate stage are so strong that she is attracting a number of folks who may be even are on the trump train but are interested in other candidates. so i think her evolution is going to continue and it will be interesting going into next year on what role she would play. tom: john micklethwait interviewing the former secretary of state, haley -- are republicans going to embrace her? do you envision her wandering out on that stage of the gop convention and being embraced by modern republican party. >> the republican party is -- especially as it relates to international issues. we are not seeing the same party

that we did 20 years ago. but i think it is an important voice and an important message and it is a big umbrella the republican party. as is the democrat party. there are a lot of voices there and i see her playing a major role in the convention. >> there was some discussion around how to get stable prices as well as spending. there seems to be no appetite to cut some of the entitlements that are picking up a lot of the budget. there was a lot of discussion at the federal reserve. this is what ron desantis had to say. they are not an economic central planner for the american people. what is your sort of sense of what the academic policy really is? >> i think there are a number of issues with talking about entitlements and entitlement cuts. those are issues you've a number of senators, bipartisan groups of senators who want to talk about in a safer sort of position to have those conversations.

i don't expect that to play a major role on the republican debate stage but that's a little bit unfortunate because these are the biggest fiscal issues facing our nation. as much as we are talking about discretionary issues in the develop and funding fight next week the real gain is entitlement spending because that makes up a large portion of where our trajectory of our debt remains. i think there will be a greater discussion, it's probably going to be a fight in the general. >> appreciate your perspective. looking out to the general next year. let's go through the goldman note together. what does this mean for the politics? if the hard part is over, if more disinflation is really in store for next year and if they are right and they say only

limited recession risk and we get expansion through 2024. >> elections are not won or lost by fiscal policy. maybe this will be different. by the time we get to 2024 we will have the stimulus -- which everyone agrees the stimulus was hugely successful. and you have to pay for it. that's the debate into next year. jonathan: a lot of people don't think it was hugely successful. tom: you look at 8% lift in real u.s. gdp. jonathan: 8% inflation. >> real gdp lift off the pandemic. jonathan: all this coming up next from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: looking to extend the longest stretch of gains in two years to potentially make it day nine on the s&p. eight winning streak so far. as you indicated in our conversation. >> since 2004 potentially. >> russell 5000, up 4/10 of a percent this morning. even a small caps were out searching for growth this morning. >> from the peak of the summer

to the recent last month or so. 18% move lower. a tough time, they rebounded slowly. something you said in the last five minutes or so. the outperformance we've seen relative to phenom -- has been phenomenal. over the last two or three years . the price we had to pay for that arguably is higher inflation. the problem this administration is got to is how do they communicate over the next 12 months that was the right thing to do and the growth we've got is a consequence of the inflation that came about as a consequence was a price worth paying. that will be a difficult needle to thread. >> that would force from inflation and we see the debt resilience and price level and even disinflation that finds itself on the balance sheet. and our public balance sheet. brilliant on this in their classic book. the answer is there is the debt

of the pandemic, the deficit of -- those are two different things. how will we fix that and that's the presidential debate people don't want to hear. there's another auction today. >> is this welcome for the same kind of rally if it just doesn't fit? is that the threshold we are talking about? tom: 10 year -- jonathan: 10 year yesterday we've come down north of 5% in just a few weeks. yields up three or four basis points. up a single basis point. interesting break in the commodity market yesterday as well to see brent crude back below 80. brent and wti looking like this. the 79, night -- the 79.99 range. crude deep into the 70's. >> the fact the energy minister

of saudi arabia pushed back against the declines and said this was not driven by fundamentals or weak demand points out to me watch this space. to me that was really notable especially given some of the concerns people had over geopolitical risk. people are under appreciating how much demand there is. jonathan: why did aramco cut prices to europe. >> you could argue this is self-serving. on the flipside you have to wonder if they will counteract this. >> israel, the intensified ground operations as its army pushes deeper into hamas strongholds. 50,000 palestinians fled to the south with limited courses in the offensive to allow people to escape. israeli forces firing on a depot

in syria. calling it a self-defense strike for attacks in iraq and syria. >> the imminent sea of some sort of expansion of this conflict seems to have been taken off the table. there seems to be this complacency that this will be something that keeps going on but that isn't necessarily likely to escalate because it hasn't so far. are there things we should be watching and especially the u.s. is getting more active with respect to strikes in countries like syria. tom: the israeli military is surrounding gaza city in some form. are they listening to politicians? at some point military people have to do military. they do not listen to politicians and is that where we are in this incredibly meaningful week. >> we will catch up in the next hour. a front runner for their

publican party nomination dominating last night's gop debate in miami. candidates find to position themselves as an alternative to donald trump spending time criticizing the former president. >> i can talk about president trump and tell you he was the right president at the right time. i don't think he's the right president now. >> donald trump's a lot different guy than he was in 2016. he owes it to you to explain why he should get another chance. >> i think there's something deeper going on in the republican party and i'm upset by what happened last night. we've become a party of losers at the end of the day. >> anybody who's good to be spending the next year and a half of their life focusing on keeping themselves out of jail and in courtrooms cannot lead this party your country. jonathan: president -- former president trump holding a rally a few miles away. lisa: basically trying to take

jabs at him so they can win against him and that was clearly on display last night because they did not go much further. tom: get out the piece of paper this morning. line up the losses, sort of losses, relative losses of the gop over the recent number of years and the answer is as was mentioned in the debate when so much winning. when does the winning start for the gop. >> let's turn to this. check out this in the premarket rising after posting a big on profit. another 2 billion in expenses. the ceo has overseen cuts of 5.5 million and eliminated jobs this year. the latest budget cuts are not expected to result in losses saying it will move the company from an era of fixing to an era of building. tom: does that mean if you are

doing a face plant you do a facebook. is that what this is about? cost-cutting. jonathan: it's a little bit different over at disney for bob iger. the stock performance is a little bit different as well. tom: warner bros. discovery. brain freeze there. that was painful. $10 a share. >> this is what investors wanted to cpa the stock is up this morning. by little more than 4%. tom: my story is watch china. this number of ways to watch china and this morning it's on price. william lee joins us. tours of duty with the international monetary fund we are thrilled to get his perspective on the pacific rim. explain the importance of pork in the cpi index and frankly the importance of pig to the chinese

culture and diet. what's the so what of pork deflation? >> the chinese are telling us the reason they had the deflationary pressure is pork is so important in the chinese cpi. it really isn't that big a deal that they are in a state of deflation, of the economy is chugging along as they had hoped. after all, as important as pork is there's a lot of deflationary -- china's economy is not giving the right kind of policies. the chinese have been trying to revive the economy by supply-side measures. the problem is with demand because people are afraid to spend. the property market is -- it really shows you the way of putting lipstick on a pig. >> will they export disinflation, will they export outright deflation? >> it is really the main cause

of their deflation. it's not that big a deal for most of our cpi baskets so they will knock that back. what we see is the factory prices are really low and they are coming out of the price of the gates and coming down for the last 13 months. that is one source of deflation for the rest of the world because our imports will be cheaper and cheaper. >> there's a question how many imports the u.s. will be doing and what the relationship will be between the u.s. and china. how close are you watching this dinner later this month with xi jinping and hundreds of business leaders in the united states. >> this is really another attempt to try and attract foreign investors. foreign companies are so important to china. about 3% of all chinese companies, that 3% accounts for 10%, a 4% of china's trade, so foreign companies are incredibly

important for the chinese economy and right now they are trying to enforce the cycle of exit us that everybody is blowing out of china because there's no confidence there is a profit center for companies going forward. china is trying to say we have a friendly market, come on back. >> who do you think is courting who at this dinner? do you think it's the business executives courting jeezy and ping or the other way around. >> executives that are there, we are here in china and here to assure you we are here to stay. the new companies trying to get into china are not the major companies we think of his multinational corporations but instead their small businesses that's a place to get low cost labor and i think they are finding out quickly the cost of doing business in china are harder than they thought. they can get information, they can get things done because of

the security measures put in place. >> of the dampening effect there's a real question about what the tea leaves are in people have pointed to the copper and oil market as a sign of how much demand is falling off. do you disagree with the saudi energy ministers proclamation that there are no demand problems and it's really just speculation. >> i think the real issue is where is the source. china is saying we have a lot of demand it's quite strong. but it's really the lack of foreign orders, foreign companies just aren't here producing. they blame it on the inflationary policies the u.s. and europe has put in place for dampening. >> is austerity still comfortable. europe and the united kingdom seem to have a heritage of

austerity. does the leadership in china share the same tone of austerity? william: the austerity they tried to put in place is for this desk for those running huge debts. they want them to control themselves but they want the private citizen to spend like crazy. that's where there is a lack of demand. whether it's lowering interest rates are trying to put that in the banking system, people just don't want to spend when they are afraid they will be losing their jobs when they've seen salary cuts. in a situation like that you are not can have the private sector helping you unless you restore some fundamental confidence that employment is here to stay. right now the chinese have not done that. jonathan: fbi. -- fdi. you saw the numbers last week.

will we see a charm offensive from others abroad? william: you will see that at the aipac meeting but they will have to assure people the fundamental changes will be put in place. the fundamental change will be that xi jinping doesn't mean the decentralization of everything. he is done even more to centralize control. >> that data turning negative recently. i think a lot of people just want a more predictable policy ratio promo out of china and they are trying to get their hands around that. >> at one point is she -- at what point is xi jinping willing to compromise for those that driven a lot of his policy stances and try to create some certainty to lure businesses back. foreign direct investment went negative for the first time on record. >> a lot of people are looking for the charm offensive in the coming weeks. tom: he has some cushion because

i see a lot of people modeling out real gdp which is not 7%. it gives him time to try his unique experiment here the dr. lee was talking about. 5% you can get by. >> check our shares of disney, higher in the pre-market. the latest earnings. i wonder if bob iger is one of those ceos meeting with the chinese leader. we will see. from new york city this is bloomberg. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more.

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it's now focused on reinvesting in the parks and studio for the last few years. there'll be consolidation and especially the streaming names. jonathan: good to catch up with chris, of co-chief investment officer. check out shares of disney up in the premarket following earnings yesterday. the theme park business absolutely booming. the numbers growing 31%. we can talk about the pressure in just a moment which is why bob iger is cutting costs. committed to cutting already going and announcing an additional looking for another $2 billion in savings. up 4%. >> you pointed out it does not include additional job cuts so i have to wonder what else is going to be sold or chopped off when you look at the four pillars they did not include linear television in any way shape or form.

i start to wonder what can happen with the legacy platforms. jonathan: encouraging the conversation earlier this year. open the door to a sale of the unit. tom: who will they sell abc to? >> i don't know. tom: i get the minority interest. >> the environment now for media is very different to the one we were into three years ago. selling those units now. they're a bit harder for bob iger. >> what are you watching? what of those silly icons. lisa: reruns. tom: the forward view is stunning. when you look at what's out there which ones do you click on? lisa: the kids click on netflix and i'm the person who looks for specific movies. jonathan: peacock for premier league football.

paramount for the champions league. espn because it carries formula one. what do you spend a month on apps. tom: it must be none -- it must be nuts. jonathan: it includes disney and the last of espn as well. you throat altogether must be pushing 150 a month easy. we've said this a million times prayed once you add it all up again. the cable bundle is back. you are not saving money at all. it's probably more expensive. tom: culture with bloomberg surveillance paid scarlet fu consulting. it is april of 2011. there was a show then, a game of thrones, a winter is coming was the first episode and that's where we are now. the success in days of blue-eyed samurai on netflix. i am watching it, i cannot say enough about the shocking beauty

of it. it is overwhelming how it is game changing. u.s. media analyst at bloomberg intelligence. i would suggest disney knows this as well. boy does disney lead a blue-eyed samurai. >> they certainly do and that's one thing bob iger emphasized yesterday. he said he is looking to reinvent the studio. he really emphasized quality over quantity. you spoke about how spectacular it is, that's what disney is going to go after. they talked about the studio having some kind of franchise fatigue. too many series created for the service. they are streaming or cutting down on a lot of the content costs. lisa was talking about where those savings will come from. a lot of that is them just cutting down on content costs. they took those down for fiscal

2023. they are taking that down further to 25 billion and that is where you get that big free cash flow number for them as well. $8 billion is what they are projecting for 2024. tom: it is animation but the basic idea is blue-eyed samurai is as non-diversity as we could get in 2023. is disney moving on from the tone and temperament of the last three or four years. is he going back or new to something different. >> it is a combination of everything. he needs to go back to the drawing board. he knows there has not been a new star wars or lucasfilm movie since 2019. obviously the marvels is in its next iteration. there's a lot he needs to do. the biggest thing for the disney studio and this is a bit shocking. a lot of the recent animated

movies have not performed as well as some of us would've expected. pixar has had that string of misfires and the studio that's really giving them a run for their money is universal. illumination you have super mario, you have minions. all of these doing really well. disney going back to the drawing board and doing a lot of rethinking and reinventing the whole franchise. jonathan: is this nightmare the sequel if bob iger is the movie? >> he tried his best and if there is any person for the job, anybody who can fix and rebuild disney it is bob iger braided he delivered signature bob iger kind of news yesterday. lots of good news, a lot of nuggets of good optimistic news where investors hang onto.

obviously there is a lot of work that remains to be done but we know there are some real drivers for disney. whether it's the parks business. at 70% of their operating income. so that definitely is a huge growth alert for the company and they are course is streaming and how to manage that business. the big question is how they will manage the espn transition. and whether that disney bundle, the streaming bundle becomes the competitor, a true competitor to netflix. >> is rebuilding a euphemism for shutting it down in terms of streamlining certain businesses and getting off selling the rest of it. >> he seems to actually walk back a little bit of the linear -- we've talked a lot about abc and some other networks being up for sale but he also did say there

is a huge cost opportunity when it comes to those linear networks. the charter deal they recently inked was a catalyst for them shutting down a lot of the smaller networks that they don't consider core. they are definitely going to streamline the business here. i am not sure when or how this will happen but he seems to suggest even if a sale does not happen right away there are a lot of synergies and cost efficiencies that they can hopefully extract over the next few months. >> this is a tough one but explore the question if you can. if they are selling, who is buying. where do the buyers come from? >> we know there has been interest from certain parties, byron allen was one who made a bid for the abc networks.

again, a private equity is always interested in the tv assets because yes it is an industry that is in secular decline but it does throw out a lot of cash and that is valuable. it is a little bit of a wait and watch. there has been some chatter as to whether the leagues would be interested. broadcast assets don't come up for sale often. maybe it is something a league can consider for reach. >> appreciate the update. we appreciate your time. we will catch up again around the opening bell. shares of disney in the premarket up by a little bit more than 4%. what are you watching? tom: blue-eyed samurai. i'm looking at research trying to figure out what the kids a camp looks like in the lead character's voice, kenneth branagh is in this.

he is the bad guy. and the lead, i don't know her is peter erskine's daughter. the great jazz drummer of america. i really cannot say enough about this, really violent first of all. i mention the whole question of the aura of diversity. this is as anti-modern woke as you can get. the only reason they can pull this off is animation. lisa: who is going to be animating that. that's why thought jeff katzenberg's comment talking about how it will be by a magnitude of 10 cheaper to animate things with artificial intelligence. i wonder if the timing of the actors strike has anything to do with it. >> i got an email from a fan, julie from york and julie said to me what is it, you have to sell emotion and that's the

difference between netflix and disney. >> you have to get rid of that. [laughter] ♪

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>> the stock market rallied because the bond market lead and that's just not typical. >> surprising on the upside and that might continue. >> markets are more volatile. >> it's good to be slow. >> it always looks like a soft landing just before recession. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the lowest winning streak in 20 years could well be

longer. for new york city this -- longest winning streak in 20 years could well be longer. i'm tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. equity market just about positive on the s&p. eight days of gains could become day nine. we make it day nine on the s&p 500, the longest back to 2004. >> we will start strong and this is about the shock not so much of shorts. maybe they will have their day here but it is about people, millions of people who are tentative about equities, they are just collegially afraid to be there and the confidence of price to move up now, that something they have to reassess. even there, everybody is reassessing this morning braided jonathan: the outlook for 2024, the hard part is over apparently.

it gets easier from here. more disinflation in store. listen to this line we see a limited recession risk going into 2024. very constructed outlook. >> you can feel it, the warm hug of the optimism that's coming in to the equity markets. he goes on like this every time i speak there is a question here about whether it is nice and whether we are ignoring the tea leaves. >> this is jane fonda atlanta braves. lisa: anyway. are we really there or is this something. tom: i don't think it is a soft landing because you have disinflation. ed nailed this saying we will get a disinflationary tendency and yet they would say ok. i'm not sure for a lot of americans this is a soft

landing. it's price decline, less nominal gdp. they don't own 10,000 shares of the stock. >> it's an equity rally. watching the bond market move in reverse. from peak to trough in the last couple of weeks. and you'll get the people who pushed back saying something like this. it will look like a soft landing until it doesn't. it's the same in the bond market at some point yields go enough for you say what's happening with growth. you get deeper into the 70's. you start to say what's happening with growth and i'm wondering whether we start to see that inflection point where we break down the correlation between bonds and equities. >> i'm loving the all-cash bond portfolio. you know that's the austrian 100 year piece. that doesn't note that i was down 70%. a small detail.

we are up. jonathan: picks up in duration. on the s&p just about positive. if you are joining us some data, some auctions that have been -- enough to keep you wanting this morning. yields up by three basis points. take it away. >> i was going to give you the excitement. a little bit of economic data. we get additional jobless claims. it's the first meaningful data we have gotten all week. what i think is interesting is we show the unemployment rate on this chart that's completely distorted by the pandemic. losing sight of what's happened and what has happened is a slow creep up by a half a percentage point in the unemployment rate. this is one to watch to see if the soft landing is premature. u.s. treasuries 24 billion dollars and 30 year notes. if it tracks we saw yesterday if

it does not fail it will be a roaring success. >> i bus chops. what's the distinction between a 10 year enthusiasm and a 30 year enthusiasm. >> there has been more tepid demand for 30 year notes. both of them have been messy. foreign and domestic but there is perhaps a little more concern over the longer-term especially with the fiscal. there were reports saying japanese investors piling onto u.s. bonds. 2:00 p.m. the fed chair planning to speak at an imf panel that includes harvard's ken rogoff. the bank of israel governor and it will be moderated. >> look forward to that. isn't it bizarre we think the 30 year auction will go better with a yield of 5%. does that make sense to you. >> the only thing that makes sense as the number of people

who came on the show were bullish on bonds who were not buying because they were concerned about the volatility and the lack of understanding of what was behind it. maybe they will come back if there is stability. >> i don't know, that's a great question. jonathan: chief equity strategist over at evercore asset. have you been participating in this wonderful beautiful thing. >> we have. several weeks ago we just felt when you backed off of that 5% yield we've been talking about it but it is the fact that in this world now for the last year and a half we are -- where stocks and bonds have been positively correlated if bond yields go down stocks go up and backing off a 5% was huge for the psychology and now we've got this unexpected oil price plunge which is even bigger.

>> break of 450 on the 10-year. at what point in these correlation start to break the other way. >> we are watching that very closely and guess what, the high-frequency data is really important because that chart you were talking about with the unemployment rate rising from 34239 in the past when that starts to happen it tends to snowball but where we will get the initial read on that is that jobless claims number starts edging over 200 50,000 we get a little bit cautious, a 300,000 is where we know the economy will turn down. tom: i'm supposed to fold in theory and disinflation theory and the stock battle. the single sentence you have have which pushes against all of that and saying price is paramount. when you talk to ed, how does he respond, do you tell them your

economics don't matter. >> five weeks ago ed hyman started putting out an almost daily the fact gasoline prices started falling. as the conflict was erupting. you already had the turn in gasoline prices completely devoid of of real sort of sense. >> how can we have prosperity with that sense of -- in china. >> if you look at the last 15 years you had episodic times of that obviously the financial crisis was one of those times but ultimately what it comes back to again for equity investors and bond investors, the whole idea of getting a real return on money in this world now is actually a positive for financial assets, a positive for capital allocation and long-term positive growth.

that's part of the equity investing mindset. lisa: do you just trade the short term? julian: the inflection in the economy. if you take the super long-term view is that even if you get the recession that ed is thinking we will get that it's going to be mild what you are left with is a labor market that has rebalanced . what you are left with is a real cost of money, better allocation and frankly we've talked about this before. you have new technological developments like generative ai that is going to improve the corporate activity over the long term. >> one of the main frustrations was pretty much everyone said at the beginning of the year has proven to be wrong including this will be the year tech stocks would fade more meaningfully and you start to see a broadening out in the rally. energy stocks would be the true leaders.

you just moved away from an overweight in energy and are talking about generative ai. it seems like the theme keeps on being leaders will keep leading and everyone has to figure out where they fit in. julian: the recession will probably to the extent it does arrive in the next 12 months or so, rationalize some of this. ultimately what it will do. part of the consternation on equity investors minds is that the russell 2000 is making new lows. ultimately you will get to a point where there will be an attractive price for the other 493 stocks away from the magnificent seven and you will get to an earnings reset. >> this is the difficult question people have to confront at the moment. do i want to buy the recovery to a recession i have not had yet given the damage we've seen. airlines which of, way off the peak back in the summer.

going into what could be a slowdown next year. >> we think you need to be balanced. given the lack of visibility into next year what we always say we have had a very nice run in recent weeks and if you go back over the last year it's been a nice run off the october lows you need to be comfortable with the fact if the market comes in 10 or 15% which it does in any typical year as it did several weeks ago and whatever that asset allocation is to you that's the kind of discipline. >> we've gone through the note this morning. the hard part is over. more disinflation is in store for the next year. on growth they say limited risk of recession and they say this on central bank policy. an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows.

ben was saying the fed putt was back. we almost spat out our water. the fed put is back. is the odd fed story returning? why are they wrong? >> because there is an assumption that there is reflex reaction to a minus gdp quarter. thankfully we did not see it in 2022 because if you it interrupted the rate hiking program you wouldn't have gotten to where you are and you could argue both sides of this case but frankly for us there is a commitment given the fact that the core pce is still solidly with the three handle that you just can't go down that road unless it really looks like there's a severe economic downturn. we think there is enough savings left over so that won't be the case. jonathan: julian awesome is always prayed welcome to the program. price action this morning on the

s&p 500 positive by 0.1%. yields are higher by three basis points. coming up we continue the conversation. >> futures are 4400. some of the bulls out there are hitting their targets right now. >> ask them about meta-. this year facebook up 165 .73% year-to-date. tom: i saw this in the zeitgeist. i'm so sorry i can't remember who to quote. 70% of stocks don't participate in a bull market. 3m is a problem child. this is minnesota manufacturing. post-it notes and before that scotch tape. 3m has done nothing. it is up off the bottom were some of these other companies at the top of the show up 17% off the bottom.

kimberly-clark i'm looking at. i don't know what to do there. help us here julian. single digit revenue growth. nobody cares. nobody wants these kinds of stocks. julian: the market will embrace that in 20. jonathan: beautiful. jonathan: he knows there is a commercial break. thank you. coming up next from new york city, equities doing better than ok over the last week. positive this morning from new york. good morning. ♪ ♪ (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪

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>> i can talk about president trump and tell you there the

right president of the right time. >> donald trump is a lot different guy than he was in 2016. he owes it to you to be on that stage and explain why he should get another chance. >> i think there's something deeper going on in the republican party. we have become a party of losers. >> i will say this about donald trump. anybody spending the next year-and-a-half focusing on keeping them selves out of jail and court rooms cannot lead this party or this country. >> gop presidential candidates. in the state of the republican party last night. from new york city, of the price action looks like this extending gains, the longest streak of gains going back two years on the s&p. eight days of gains. make it day nine on the nasdaq at the close yesterday. equities higher by 1/10 of 1% on

the s&p. yields up as well by four basis points after closing below for 50 on a 10 year in yesterday's session for crude. 7570 on wti for brent. 7998. a break of 80 this morning. lisa: is this because of softer demand, indicating cooling in the global economy or is this something else, the speculation they were talking about. you pushed back saying they are cutting prices to europe so there seems to be something bigger going on. if that is the case is this -- does this, aside with a soft landing. >> i think both of those things are what people are hoping for. jonathan: nope -- tom: no question about it. a soft landing speaks to the point of real gdp.

getting a global gdp statistic when china pops at 5% up with the soft part of soft landing. jonathan: great conversation earlier this week. just fantastic as always prayed it's a moment not a destination. it looks like one now. it's essentially what he's saying for the next two to three weeks. ultimately beyond that. no idea. tom: the goldman sachs note, most of the economists are just trying to get out to q1 2024. who is framing the summer of 2024? there is not a single american framing the summer of 2024. jonathan: that's what a lot of people on wall street will do. the season is upon us. >> joining us to brief off the gop debate last night. chief u.s. policy strategist at agf investments.

i stood on the floor of the gop convention of 2004 and it was a different republican party. george bush junior wanted a more hopeful america. what's going to be that slogan this summer for the republicans? >> i think they will emphasize the economy and state that biden has not done a good job. frankly i would disagree. i think they will make it more about the economy than anything else. the intriguing issues are abortion number one and number two, how much more involved are we going to get in ukraine and israel. >> what about the idea they are losing elections, not doing as well in certain elections. it could be a from a year ago november. how do they start winning again? >> i don't think you talk like him. i think he talked himself off the boat last night. i don't see much of a future for

him, not much of a future for tim scott and so it's dwindling. you really only have three challengers. desantis was ok last night but made a strategic error. he did not mention the governor viola had endorsed him. i can't believe he did not talk about that. you have nikki haley, maybe chris christie. but 2024 i think with just two challengers to trump. >> do you think either of them have a chance of taking trump off the ticket? >> no, not enough. trump would have to do something really egregious and he's pretty much filled the role on that for the last couple of years. i don't see anything barring a health issue that will keep trump from being the nominee. >> president biden will meet with the uaw leader today and there's a real question of what

he can do to shore up the image of biden mix and what's happening in the economy which some are saying on paper does not look so bad yet in practice has people feeling like they want something different? >> it's a good question. i'm told within the white house biden is angry, he feels he has done a pretty good job on the economy and gets no credit. he will hit the road and try to make his case. an awful lot of americans fear that we are not out of the woods and there is still more inflation threats, food and gasoline still to come. >> this is a great course to take in politics. you can take value 101. this is fiscal issues of the day of the election don't matter. are you telling me the debt and the deficit do not matter the first tuesday of november? >> when you look at net interest

costs, this is becoming a major crisis for the bond market. there is no mood in congress whatsoever to dramatically cut the deficit. however i think once we get through labor day of this coming year this stuff will be irrelevant. i think attitude harden during the summer. if trump is well ahead he could pull this out but i have a feeling biden will come back. i have a feeling democrats all of a sudden are motivated because of what happened in kentucky. tom: path of least resistance for the former president another tax cut? >> that's going to be on the agenda. i think with the senate probably flipping and the house probably flipping, you will have a climate that will be right for a huge argument whether we extend the trump tax cuts. i think we will. i think trumbull talk about taxcutting even though the

deficit is enormous. lisa: i have to wonder whether this time is different. a lot of people say dysfunction in washington dc is the reason why yields have been flipping and flopping. then they talk about a potential government shutdown and say markets won't care. have we reached a point where market dysfunction will result in political dysfunction in d.c. in a more material way? >> we will see another alleged crisis on november 17 if there's no budget. i don't think the markets will be all that concerned about it. i worry about the credit agencies and the s&p downgrading u.s. debt not just because of the size but because things are so dysfunctional in getting a budget. >> appreciate your input. my favorite stat right now, politicians and the distortion of reality between what they want to talk about and do not want to talk about. america right now is producing

13 point 3 million barrels of oil a day. if you were to ask the average person on the street, go run with a camera and microphone, ask them what their political affiliation is, once you've asked them what it is ask them how much crude they think we are producing. and see what they say. i don't think they will say what you think. we are producing more now than we did then. the issue is the democrats don't want to talk about it either. the white house does not want to talk about that stat, that data point because they do not want to upset a fringe of the party that would be upset america's producing 13.2 million barrels of oil a day. >> on the republican side they don't want to talk about that because it feeds into this idea of let's explore what the u.s. has to offer. president biden doesn't want to talk about that because it goes against some of the clean energy initiatives he himself is put

out there and on the republican side i would argue nobody really wants to talk about abortion. on one hand they are losing on that issue and recognize on the other hand they have to cater to concert -- to a certain constituency. tom: into our coverage of the conventions and all of that, what it really comes down to is if you look at this is going to be an election about culture wars, there will be an election about economics. >> the conversation continues. we will find some time to talk about crude a little bit later. from new york city this is bloomberg. ♪

lara: k bed together brammo, on the s&p we are up by .08%. we are pulling back on futures down .09%. the russell has been be not an off the highs by .4%. in the bond market, 10 year yield a break out for 50 and it

was up at 4.54 and on the 30 year 4.6 a. lisa: have we seen enough to show the technical's are giving people confidence that these levels are real? i don't know what people need for that conviction but it's the right question. lara: so big swings in bonds. let's finish on crude 13.2 million barrels a day crude is back at $75 should we focus on supply for on demand? lisa: people have been focused on demand.

this is one of the most confusing signals to get. maybe this signals a soft landing because demand is cooling but not dropping off a cliff. jonathan: the 10 year braking for 50 briefly. those numbers stand out. tom: where ago to get a global sense of this is germany. i don't think we have talked enough about the new germany which is not the stereotype we hold in our mind they have serious disinflation. jonathan: they need to see massive gdp growth. tom: i think we have underplayed it. i have the russell 2000, 5000

him off half a percent. jonathan: it's written on the screen there, tom. there has been 50,000 palestinian that have fled into south gaza. they strike out of syria said it was in retaliation to attacks on american forces in the area. lisa: i was struck about the tone about iran. regardless of the criticism that biden has come under, the republicans offered a position on the others. tom: i wonder where this is six

months from now, how do we fit into a new diplomacy with the ran. that's under huge debate. jonathan: these are the kinds of things you can say when you are out of power and not in power. i don't know the answer to that but they have to temper some of that message. lisa: there is a fly running around the studio. jonathan: i could've sworn he was wearing a bow tie. these sac opera have brokered a deal which they will brookfield

tomorrow. is that something we should push for, no ai impersonations? lisa: i wonder how much they came to the deal with the pressure they have seen from cost cuts how to streamline production costs but if they get a piece of it before ai takes over they may take it now. jonathan: the movies have been pushed out 2, 3 years. tom: it is the customer who's going to decide. and clearly, they want to watch youtube. i am not sure i know where the future is. at warner bros. discovery they don't know it either. jonathan: blue-eyed samurai is

the new game of thrones. it's jaw-dropping. citadel founder warning that inflation could ask for debt -- last for decades. >> there are many trends pushing us towards the globalization. with that is a trend towards higher baseline inflation. >> over what. period? >> it could be for decades. jonathan: that's going against the grain's, you get this move on treasuries and now it flips. jay pelosky was going in that direction are we going back to

that? tom: ken rogoff is going speak today and he will be talking about inflationary dynamics. jonathan: i've never seen someone get so excited about that. tom: i want to talk about the concentration of the market and what he invented which is a trading method they use in the modern day. jonathan: so you want conversation about citadel, the machine. tom: i don't think if people know what he has invented. i find it absolutely stunning, the market we are in is

original. i would love to know what he thinks about it. jonathan: this rally is original, it could become day nine. tom: all you need to know is commercial real estate is here. macon robson knows all about this. commercial real estate, i'm gonna cut to the chase, it is grim. meghan: this will be one of the most rate sensitive parts of the market and defaults will rise there. looking at them across the board the areas where we see problems so far are in these rate sensitive areas, commercial real estate and floating-rate

interest payments have seen defaults rise. on the consumer side with the fed data we got this week with revolving credit delinquencies creep a little higher. commercial real estate is a well flagged area for weakness. lisa: we have been talking about what kind of stability people need to see to gain confidence to come up with a business plan for corporate issuers to come back to the market? is this enough? are these rates fine if they stay here and there is a sense of stability for all of the issuers? meghan: we have seen a lot of issuance this week. for contacts, yields relative to the recent peak 45 basis points and 50 basis points lower for higher issuers.

going forward, we expect muted new issuance. the incentives are in place for deleveraging and looking at things like m&a volumes, the cost of debt versus equity and the factors that support less issuance next year and we expect that to be 18% lower in 2024. lisa: there is a real question that corporations will not have to pay a premium on government debt rates because they are being more fiscally responsible and you see spreads become narrow. do you agree with that? meghan: we do not agree with that. we have fundamentals to your rating. corporate's should have premiums over the risk-free rate. topline growth of revenue we saw

weakness there and going forward you will have leverage creep up in the main challenge of interest coverage as issuers phase the maturity wall that is going to weigh on their balance sheets. tom: the idea that commercial real estate is 5-7 years. but in your world, what is your timeline out? are you looking at three years, five years? meghan: most corporatists will be 12-15 months forward looking. next year, we think and 2024 it will be a challenge for lower quality credit. ccc's will see interest cover fall if they refinance a current yields. heading into 2025 you see a

bigger pickup in the maturity wall. jonathan: it's out there in the distance light game of thrones. we won't know until you get there. tom: coming to theaters. jonathan: i got messages yesterday that things have been really hot and demand is great, can you give us a sign? meghan: the issuance has been received while we were thinking about 35 billion in ig and we saw 46 billion. deals have been well received. it speaks to the technical picture improving with the rally in yields. we had outflows with those selloff and that demand is coming back and able to support new issuance. jonathan: 5% on a 30 year is the

problem brings back demand because people are enticed by the move in yields and not the levels. lisa: people want to buy it and they wanted take this window even though 460 is above the risk-free rate from two years ago. at one point are we looking at some kind of room but? jonathan: if you are just joining us were talking fixed income. s&p 500 is positive by .11%. primary market activity, the build and credit, demand taken down fairly well. lisa: we have seen buyers line up in the question is, is the

sustainable and is this with the backdrop of companies bringing forward issuance but not planning to sell it later. this is a chance to lock in duration for a long period of time. tom: do you anticipate another megadeal from high tech buyers? jonathan: you are so excited about apple coming to the market. of 50 basis point move on yields , it's amazing how much sentiment has shifted. stephanie roth from wolf research is up next. jobless claims is 45 minutes away. ♪ ♪

j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research.

get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. >> in terms of big tech, i think the strong get stronger. what i see in the world is a

different environment in terms of growth. you will see the strong continuing to dominate and in terms of ai, we are in the early stages. that's important in the stock market. jonathan: still bullish on tech and why not after the week we just had? the nasdaq 100 with the big gain. can we deliver another day of gains? equity market is sponsored by this monster move. there was a break of 450. tom: we have not even started to talk about uas speaking in japan.

it's almost a relief that mysteries are clearing up and maybe equities are moving on their own accord and not because of bonds. jonathan: have we seen a huge move in the bond market and that's given us some relief? there is research everywhere that the labor market is no longer a reason for the bed to be hawkish because of the rebalancing we have seen. and they say the hard part is over they are saying that it is easy skiing from here. lisa: what happened? what has changed? is it that no monsters of climbed out of the closet. you have the game of thrones wall or the wall of the fed

hiking rates or potential re- acceleration in the labor market. is that feeding the sense that we can lean into this? jonathan: i'm just so pleased i get to sit between the two of you. keep it together tk. tom: to give you a brief on things moving higher as someone who understands the concept of technology, alex webb in london. alex it's as simple as this it is about fear, greed if you left it at 193 you will love it here.

he was buying the stocks and making these major cap stocks move? alex: all of the people who have seen that even when we think there are problems with apple manages to put out numbers that are not bad. they managed to consistently beat expectation and throws out cash. it's hard to discount apple. if you look at some of the multiples, it is trading 28 times as forward earnings. it's not anywhere near the 50, 60 multiple we see on amazon. it's closer to multiples and disney. tom: i look at microsoft.

they wanted ai? jonathan: i don't think anyone has won the war yet. tom: there is this movie butch cassidy and sundance kid there looking off into the distance and we look at tech and we are like who are these guys? who is newtek that we have to keep rebuying every hour? alex: were probably just approaching the first hurdle in horse racing terms. ai is a cloud product. these are products that the likes of google and microsoft are using to sell their cloud.

if you want to use these products you need to be using google cloud. there will be so much more that comes that is sophisticated and specialized to whatever your company's purpose may be and that is when we get into the second, third, fourth hurdles with the new companies coming out of the woodwork and it won't just be these massive tech companies. jonathan: let's talk about the smartphone business. in some people's minds is speaking to a slowdown in the smartphone business tell us what's happening with the likes of apple? is that a reflection of increased competition, a difficult market? alex: we have seen huawei come out with the phone that was advanced than anyone thought would be possible for a chinese

company to manufacture this mess domestically. we have also seen a slowdown in purchases. a lot has to do with consumer sentiment but the pace of innovation has slowed. there are software innovations like ai, there are hardware pieces to it. but we will see more ai functionality brought into smartphones. the way you sort pictures in your phone for example is through an ai model. lisa: there is a feeling that apple is the most leverage to the consumer cycle and economy and the others are a bit more

independent like the cloud providers. do you think that will hold true next year? as some of the other splinter way will they continue to behave? alex: apple is co2 consumer sentiment but a place in a different space than a lot of consumer electronics companies. there is a little less price sensitivity and apple has managed to build out its services business which is higher margin and recurring revenue you get month after month. it's not in the enterprise place as microsoft is with his cloud business and panoply of other offerings. that makes it a little more vulnerable and that may be why

it's not trading at a generous multiple when you look at some of those big tech names. you can never discount apple. they always manage to pull something out of the hot. jonathan: nice work there on the smartest -- latest on the smartphone business. nvidia is up 18% and meta is a and tesla is up as well. there are stellar gains here today. tom: on the sell side debate and this is apple and you mentioned mr. ives, that span is one hundred $66 on a share price of 240 and i've said he is modeling 270. there is a huge debate. jonathan: i'm just wondering

about the smartphone business steaming on. tom: there are a lot of people saying that this puppy's not going to move. jonathan: i'm want to squeeze in this apple news, steve wozniak -- is hoping for a speaking recovery. tom: this guy is iconic and is wrapped around the death of steve jobs. he's been in acolyte for technology and never gotten the credit that he should have. jonathan: that is the latest on tack and coming out, cameron dawson from newedge wealth and then justin a few minutes we

will get jobless claims. equities of zero point 1%. good morning, this is bloomberg.

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>> it's not only taking place in the united states, there is

gradual fear. i think it's very much indicative of what the fed has been telling us, higher from longer. >> everything is volatile we don't know where this economy is going. i don't think we've seen the impact of rates i think that will be in 2020 4, 2025. this is bloomberg surveillance with tom kean, jonathan farrow and lisa abramowitz. tom: on radio and television, the build up maybe it's a grind up. green on this green, futures are up seven. we had julian emanuel and we will speak to ms. dawson with their enthusiasm for equities. jonathan: the first two were constructive. it's an eight day winning

streak on the s&p. goldman sachs, the hard part is over. tom: a krispy kreme note, i need to go to the bond market because people are saying bonds are better and auction talk. let's speak with ian that saying new 30 year auction have a very long history of tailing. the only directional impulse from the event is the magnitude of the tale. while a concession is clearly

warranted. lisa: thanks for setting me up, it means they typically don't perform well in price's sack after the issuance prices announced. the question is will this be a solid as we got yesterday? tom: i make jokes about this, yesterday the tail showed people have confidence in america, right? lisa: it showed there was no catastrophe, that things were basically ok. jonathan: this is the worst fixed income that's ever aired on this program. let's clean this up. yield and the dollar have peaks by frustration levels have not. lisa: that is really great.

if you get a lack of any run-up in yields, may people could solidify around a thesis. tom: we have a running domestic here this morning and this is the emotion out there. can you imagine an equity strategy team or bond strategy team trying to get to the end of the year? there are serious domestics going on. jonathan: good luck to them. i am hoping that cameron dawson doesn't walk off the floor. there has been a lift in the equity market and a lift in yields as well. there was a break in 450.

crude at 76.07. a break of 80 briefly and brent crude and a break of 450 briefly . whether that turns into a demand concern is something we can talk about through the week. tom: next week's cpi and retail sales have to be a profound confirmation of this. moments ago, pure green on the screen. the nasdaq 100 just turn green this well. cameron dawson. cameron: we can express a santa clause rally. the largest stocks are up the

most which means you don't have eager sellers recognizing tax gains. this is different than last year. and people proverbially puked at the end of the year. tom: warner bros. discovery puked yesterday how will that affect selling? cameron: this is small caps, cyclicals, health care and fences, desert areas where people are looking for opportunities but they are not part of the index so when we look at the s&p 500 that supports it through the year. jonathan: am i looking for buying opportunities and small-cap some financials, what

am i doing? cameron: you have to look for opportunities and things that have struggled because pain trades are reversal trades in leadership. and just when people throw in the towel, they will give you option malady on aai and everyone crowds into them. that is the moment when they start to lag. we have to have the imagination that other things could do well in 2024 rather than the narrow leadership. jonathan: everyone who is bullish on equity should ask themselves where they think the labor market will be in three months with the fat on hold. what is your labor market but? cameron: we are debating if we see normalization of weakening. normalization is the gateway d

rug to easing. the key thing to remember, the fed itself has unemployment going to 4.1% and they are not forecasting a recession. that will be a key question if we get 4.1% does not justify an easing of policy. lisa: is it ok to say we don't care right now with oil prices coming off in risk appetite still available? cameron: going into cpi gasoline prices have dropped which was different when gas prices were up a lot and pinched consumer spending a little at the margins. i think it is important to

remember, 2022 we priced in the earnings recession in 2023. what are we going to pricing for 2024 as we look into 2025? are we confident this economic setup can remain strong in consumer spending remains robust. lisa: given the uncertainty around certain outcomes how nimble are you remaining to adjust quickly? cameron: we have to remain completely nimble. we saw that when we saw that with being deeply oversold to being overbought. technicals become really important and we cannot get lodged into narratives. now narratives are saying everything is fantastic. when we look at technical levels 4400, 4.5% for the 10 year.

how we interact with those levels will be indicative of the next two months. tom: speak to the people who say i'm nervous but i'll participate in this market and the own tech which has a bid on an hourly basis. cameron: it's extraordinarily strong but think about the difference in the set up. going into 2022 the magnificent seven had been cut over the course of the year. over the course of 2023 magnificent seven has been revised higher because of the better growth. it is a much higher bar and that is where the discipline is not trying to extrapolate the experience of 23 and look for opportunities in areas left behind. lisa: you've been talking about

how difficult it is to follow the mood because it swing so massively week to week. how much does the move we have seen an yield underpin your conviction you can lean into the rally at the year-end? cameron: we have seen it play out in valuation and they are back to 18.5 times the earnings. is that the right valuation given where yields are up 4.5%? the challenge with valuation as they are terrible timing tools which means they have no predictive power on the year forward basis. that may not show up in price action for 2, 3, 4 years. thus where the discipline from not chasing high values comes in. jonathan: we have news on doughnuts.

tom: we can get you shares of krispy kreme short. they are a different donut than what you get from dunkin' donuts. it is like the american greggs. all of a sudden krispy kreme is looking for a partnership with mcdonald's. john towered at citigroup says that the first bite will be a mcdonald, krispy kreme. jonathan: brammo broke into the

first krispy kreme shop. can you imagine what she was like in local news? she just wanted to do a fluff piece and brammo in fargo. tom: krispy kreme or duncan? cameron: there is nothing better than krispy kreme straight from the fire. tom: let's make sure we look for cameron dawson at krispy kreme doughnuts. this makes me thinks of the story, this is so confusing. they have undercut the cost of

ed shot that will hit the pharmacies. lilly also sells the same drug for diabetes that retails further $47 less per month. if it's about diabetes it costs one price and if it's about weight loss it cost another? tom: we need to get sam fazeli onto talk about it. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized, based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off.

looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a digital money coach in the chase mobile® app.

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criticized me from using tiktok while her daughter has been using tiktok this whole time. >> leave my daughter out of this. >> the easier answer is to say we will and one app. jonathan: this was a feud on the debate stage last night. tom: i know we all deal with this. you can't drag your kids into this. that is the third rail. jonathan: that crosses the line. tom: in america crosses the line. jonathan: we are positive by 0.2% on the s&p 500.

jobless claims will be 15 minutes away. tom: the economy is front and center. the cpi and retail, a week ago i would've blathered on. but with this bond market move i can't fathom the reset we will see with the outcome of those reports. jonathan: they said that chairman powell seems fine with the strength of the third quarter. he doesn't see that as a reason to be hawkish any longer. when we look at inflation data what are we converging around? and they think we are converging around three and not 2%. we've talked about the last mile being the hardest. tom: going into next year, are

we there yet? do we have a clue of january or february of next year? jonathan: i don't know. tom: i just don't see it. a huge response to our donut discussion. we will summarize it here. the 9:00 show will be doughnut free we are told. that's a good time to speak to annmarie herndon who is gluten-free. no doughnut talk today. there was a line crossed at the gop debate. what are the ramifications of this bitterness we saw with the discussion? annmarie: there have been moments where nikki haley and

viviswamey brought his daughter into the debate. he says that tiktok is fentanyl for social media but he joined it to get to young viewers. he also called her dick cheney and three inch heels and she corrected him and said they are five inch heels and i can run in them like ron desantis and they give me ammunition. overall, this debate was more substantive because there were less individuals on the debate stage. a lot of these individuals will start to wane out.

tom: that's sensitive with the lifts i am wearing. jonathan: you don't need lifts. tom: i can't imagine how silly the fourth debate will be? annmarie: that depends on who was on the stage. greg valiere said is really between governor desantis and nikki haley but he did not mention the endorsement he got from kim reynolds and that was supposed to be this boost to his campaign. so will we see all five of these guys at the debate? we should also remember, this is a tale of two primaries.

the individual who was waiting in front of all of these candidates was having his own rally 10 minutes away in florida and that's donald trump. lisa: it's amazing we have not talked about foreign policy given how much is dominated the headlines. last night they were hard on their line on iran. in news this morning says the u.s. had a defensive strike on munitions tied to iranian rebels. why do we know about the u.s. stance evolving in that frame? annmarie: for iran, but republicans want to take a hard line. it was the obama administration that had the jpoa with the ron. and then the biden

administration, wasn't necessarily trying to renegotiate the jpoa but wanted to keep talking with them to keep a lid on the region. but these individuals were talking about not going hard enough on iran because they are the backer of hezbollah and hamas. that's why you are seeing tough talk on china and russia but squarely on iran. with this administration wants to do is keep a lid on what is happening in the cove. they do not want to see this conflict between israel and hamas spread elsewhere. lisa: how does the strike in syria play into this goal and not escalating the conflict? the president has been clear

that if we see an uptick on bases in syria and iraq they will strike back. they want to make sure they're not just showing to terrence -- deterrence with two aircraft carriers but they will strike back if they are hit. they are seeing an uptick but is not over going to see? a lot of this has happened in the past it just hasn't been out front because people are not focused on it. people are squarely focused on it now because of what's happening in israel. jonathan: were talking about this at the same time we talked about the governor of florida having lipton issues. tom: is your politics just estranged? jonathan: i think politics has gotten more ridiculous around the world. is he wearing lifts or not?

and when is he wearing lifts? annmarie: he did an interview and the interviewer said i saw you where these ferragamo shoes that he did not accept because apparently he has to use the lifts in his shoes. but it is silly. we are talking about incredibly serious issues. yesterday, not only israel but more funding on ukraine. should the u.s. raise the retirement age? where they stand on abortion because of fear of republican running after tuesday night's election in ohio, kentucky and

virginia and there is also some silliness. jonathan: i watch that clip with those ferragamo's. thank you so much. tk, you don't need lifts. tom: it depends on if the children need money. jonathan: whenever i meet someone the number one thing they say is you're so much taller than i thought and i say yes, i sit next to a giant. coming out joining us is george bory and mohamed a el-erian without all coming up. ♪

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tom: bloomberg surveillance from new york. jonathan farrow is ended deep donut discussion coming up at 9:00. there is green on the screen but let's get to the data. next week, cpi, retail sales and this data now. lisa: you talked about how her set up through next week and there are surprises to the upside. tom: michael mckinley joins us

with the numbers. mike: 217,000 but they're waiting for the revision to come up but no change in jobless claims. it's not a surprise we see claims go down with the auto strikes over. that might be something of a hangover from the auto strikes. tom: how is next week's cpi/retail sales combo different? mike: it's different in that we have a lot more data to come before the next fed date.

this will be informative but dispositive. they will wait until they see what the november cpi does before making a decision. retail sales are expected to go down for the month of october. although, the control group is sub just a little bit. it depends on whether people want to go christmas shopping early. this year, analyst on think they will be doing that and cpi is forecasted to go lower. that would keep the fed on track to reach a soft landing in the idea of not raising rates. tom: the vic said 14.39. do you see any bond love after

jobless claims? lisa: we didn't see any monsters come out of the closet as a take up in jobless claims and i wonder if that's enough to give people conviction about a soft landing. to that point, what will it take considering we're looking at a soft landing? mike: how and when do you define a soft landing? just like the former senators said we just declare victory and go home. the economy doesn't ever landed just keeps going. the question is do we have any contractions or just the economy grow again? lisa: jay powell will be at the

imf panel. what could he say that would influence where markets are? mike: the only thing markets are looking for is any pushback against the idea of additional rate cuts. he came out and said we are not talking about are thinking about rate because in the next day rate because were priced in greater and sooner. this is a global banking challenge she's with the central banker of israel and the imf. tom: how are you dealing with the debt and deficit debate every day? michael mckie on the percolation of our larger debt and deficit? mike: the debt has gotten bigger than we thought it would because

receipts are down and people don't understand why. the bottom line is that nothing is going to get done and less members of congress go after entitlements. the additional deficit from nondefense spending would hardly get you anywhere. do they have any kind of courage to do that and there has not been any indication that's the case. tom: michael mckinley, leaning into next week's economic data. stephanie ross writes economic strategy and reports and we welcome her today. i just have to go to your key point and i love how you do this , you have a conviction call and very few people want to say that with this great uncertainty.

what is your conviction call? stephanie: inflation is coming down. female participation is a big driver and work from home is here to stay and inflation is another factor. we talk about on shoring as a driver for lower inflation and while that is true for national security but were still importing just as much. lisa: the question is where do we deflate to? maybe the fed just declares victory and goes home. is there enough disinflation area baked into get us down to 2%? stephanie: i think it will get down to near 2%, close enough to where the fed can pause at this point and cutting rates at the back end of next year.

that should be enough disinflation. we have an event talked about rent, that should come down five basis points or so. lisa: given your conviction inflation is coming down do you see conviction we will not see economic pain associated with disinflation people were expecting earlier? stephanie: we think growth is going to slow down and move below trend with one hand on the first half of next year. inflation risk will remain elevated until the fed cuts rates. but with a deceleration the pipeline that could be a possibility. tom: within nominal gdp out 12 months what are your statistics? stephanie: where little bit low on gdp for next year at 1.7

there were looking at inflation of 2%. tom: not that you make a specific stock market call but when you speak to wolfe analyst that has to bring nominal and with the disinflation call? stephanie: the analyst on balance are a little more cautious than they were at the beginning of the year. at the beginning of this year while they were thinking bearish the fundamental analysts were positive. tom: the bottom line is, the top line revenue of american companies, forget about tack and the magnificent seven. it has to be dampened if you get a roth disinflation call with subdued gdp. lisa: which is the reason why the economy is not the stock

market and vice versa. i want to die further into this idea that you have conviction we will just inflate but low conviction about what is going to happen with the economy and how much things will slow or contract. what are the lodestone's for this? i keep going back to this at a time when people are looking at oil prices that they signify cooling a demand but not falling off a cliff. stephanie: there are a couple of things on the growth front, a big surprise has been physical. i mean the ira that played out, chip spending that resulted in structure spending. on top of that, we had fiscal stimulus and employee retention critics being paid out. on top of that, the consumers

excess savings is largely over. lisa: are people underestimating how much of a fiscal boost when into the third quarter gdp print. stephanie: i think there was an element of that. people underestimated how much fiscal was getting spent in the economy and many of it when into subsidies. that all played out in 2023 which is why growth held up. lisa: is this going to be a point of debate when it becomes politics season. if there is disinflation the fiscal stimulus will be considered successful based on the debate and where we are at globally? stephanie: it depends on where you are coming from. from a chips perspective we need

that as an element of public security. some of the stimulus was countering what was coming from a monetary perspective. tom: how do you define soft landing? it is a v-shaped bottom to me. what is a soft landing? stephanie: it looks like a 1% gdp for the first half of next year and you come out of it with around trend growth. tom: the key phrase is a short period of time but we used to call it a recovery. it doesn't sell like it should. lisa: simi, this is the uncertainty we don't understand the fiscal impulse which is one of the mysteries going forward.

to me that was the most interesting take away. that is off the table, how much of a drag will that be on the economy? stephanie: it will be a sizable drive next year and that will reduce gdp by a meaningful amount. tom: we have a company that is 85% in debt and coming out with the new offering and it tanks from 10 to 860. we have to cover this. amc entertainment out with an equity offering, i have no clue what that means. the stock moves 15% while the s&p is up .2%. lisa: stephanie roth from wolfe research.

the suggestion is that the dilution and shares is leading to this plunge and i wonder how much amc is coming out on the details of taylor swift mania and barbieheimer trends. and the day traders willing to accept that on the others. tom: again, it's a small company but 86% is the weighted average cost of dead is 6%. thus an enormous member. lisa: if they came to market now it would be a much larger number. this is one of the gamestop diane lane and they just had this incredible quarter. they had pretty big kids can they raise up bigger equity

cushion? there's a price to pay for that. tom: you look to pre-pandemic charts of amc and is simple. i went from 40, to 300 and now it's down at 10. lisa: did you see barbie? tom: i'm the only one of the country who has not seen it. lisa: did you watch taylor? tom: no, what are you talking about? i will mention taylor so after every 12 minutes. good morning taylor. ♪

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>> last time i was here i said buying oil would not be a good hedge because oil had been under

so much pressure before. there is a lack of demand and the saudi's can turn on the top of they want to and were trying to work with venezuela and iran is going to continue to pump oil. there is not much in favor for oil so i could see that breaking lower. lisa: we will get to that is just a minute. we were speaking about amc. amc shares plunging after announcing they are going to offer 350 million for stock. they want to bolster liquidity and lower dead. shares are lower by 18%. tom: can we say this is because

of taylor's with enter concert footage where she's dressed in blue and then beige. we are running the air as video. lisa: they just had a great quarter but what i find interesting is that this is raising equity to lower dead. think about how much of a reversal that is when every company was raising money to buy back shares. that is notable. do a lingo shares are popping. my whole family does do a lingo. -- duo lingo. tom: it is really game changer. taylor's has also been doing duo

lingo lisa: a big question of who do they sell to devon with what we are seeing with respect to amc. tom: may be taylor swift mania by disney? [laughs] lisa: i do want to turn to oil. ellen wald is joining us from the atlantic council. saudi's energy minister said it has nothing to do with demand this is price manipulation, demand is still strong. what is you make of that? dr. wald: i am not surprised to

see him saying that this is all due to speculators and it's not a supply and demand issues. there has always been speculation in the market with fund managers dumping oil futures off this week. i'm sure he's focused on that. the fact remains that the market is reacting to what it thinks is a lowering demand from china. whether or not that is true remains to be seen. it's difficult to gauge what is going on in china and what the market is reacting to is that refining margins are soft and chinese refineries are not making as much. they are interpreting that is sweet demand. how does that translate to whether china increases imports. -- reducing imports. one of the interesting things we

have seen is that iranian oil exports have been lower than they were in august. now we are seeing the clients and there is speculation that due to enforcement or declining demand from china. we have saudi arabia holding barrels off the market but they are in the best position to gauge china's demand. it could mean that yes china's demand is looking soft but they are looking at the longer picture and long game. that still strong. tom: with great respect to your book we can take these tensions back to the saudi/yemini war in 1937. give us some modern treatment on

how they look at yemen today? dr. wald: it is a thorn in their side. any group like the groups like the houthis, why you would think they are like any other group they are a threat to the saudi monarchy. they are at staid conservative guy who always has the same thing for breakfast. they are the status quo. any group looking to changing the status quo even if their similarities with religious ideology, that is seen as a threat. what's disturbing is that despite prolonged military campaigns by the saudi's and uae they have not been able to

dislodge the houthis from yemen. while they claim to be involved in the israel/hamas contrast it will be interesting to see if the saudi's use this as an excuse to get them out of yemen or if they will be embarrassed by someone else taking them out. tom: and saudi arabia and their treatment of palestine how do you treat that? dr. wald: what we have on one hand is king solomon who is nominally the king of saudi arabia and he is vehemently anti-israel, pro-palestine. he thinks that they are responsible for 9/11.

he is a huge barrier to retrenchment between saudi arabia and israel. that being said his son who does the day-to-day ruling is much more inclined to use israel as a way to get what he wants from the united states and that was about to be a successful deal before this latest conflict derailed that. i don't think the general lines are going to change but if king salmon was not there we would see a much faster progression to a saudi/israeli normalization. i think mbs sees it as a beneficial thing or a good tool

to get other thing that he s needs to achieve nuclear power. lisa: how do saudi arabia about production in the u.s.? dr. wald: they have come to terms with the fact that the u.s. is going to produce what it will produce and there's not much they can do about it. i think they were fairly pleased to see there is more consolidation in the oil industry. they see that as a move forward for production and companies looking at supply and demand and not just pumping to stay at a head the way we saw in 2015. they see this as it not always remaining this high. tom: ellen wald from the

atlantic council can see enough about her book saudi inc. the vicks is giving me love but all of that is shadowed by the thirty-year auction. brammo solid on the 10 year. new thirty-year auctions have a long history of tailing. lisa: it's a question of whether the buyers show up at the prius dealers think they should. yesterday, we saw a pretty solid auction but thirty-year bonds, there is a history of more indigestion at thirty-year auctions. tom: please stay with us

throughout the day. our team coverage at 1:00 p.m. of the action. ♪ what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. hi, i'm jason. i've lost 228 pounds on golo.

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jonathan klein a day winning streak. futures are positive. can't answer the up now. >> everything you need to get started. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: high inflation is here for decades as jay powell takes