alix: 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day. top stories at this hour, government guarantee, politicians debate expanding fbic -- fbic insurance -- fdic

insurance. are we headed for a minsky moment? jp morgan said the fund manager survey shows year of a credit event. welcome to bloomberg markets. i am trying to understand what is moving what parts of the market periods have equities higher, a lot about positioning in the bond market and fomo. guy: relief we are not seeing something else break today. there does seem to be a sense of relief. we are also getting home sales, 14.5%, the survey is 5%.

it comes to at a 4.2 expectation. mortgage rates have been coming lower. i wonder whether that is the trigger for the number but fascinating we are seeing that. that was signal this is an economy that may need further fed tightening. alix: i live in an apartment complex with a yard in between and one apartment sold in one day and the other sold in 35 days. his are expensive apartments. it was staggering to me. i was like what slowdown? guy: it will be interesting to see how the banks and everyone else response to the current markets. there has been fear that the lending would tighten up significantly. you look at the big banks, they are largely untouched by the crisis and you would have thought that you do see a slight

tightening but not major. alix: it will also take a while for that to be through for the effect of the regionals and lending standards. guy: the market likes to price these things in yesterday, so maybe we are getting ahead of ourselves. are we headed for a minsky moment? what i want to throw up is the fed funds rate, huge acceleration to the upside in terms of where rates are and potentially the catalyst for this. minsky talks about the idea that you see a period of extended risk-taking and that gets out of hand. it had been at zero for so long, maybe that is the effect we will see.

what do you think? it is raised over at jp morgan which had an extended period that you could argue leverage is buildup. are we headed for the minsky moment? >> i think that is attached to dramatic at this point. there are a few reassuring signs. the balance sheet has worsened but not as it was prior. corporate balance sheets are looking better. are we going to see more of an adjustment in credit markets, which did not move after the svb collapse. alix: edward is here with me. do you agree? edward: i do. i do not think there will be a

minsky moment. generally speaking we will see a calming down of the acute crisis and moving into a more slow bleed. the question guy was asking was, how much will we have credit tightening, because i was looking at small and regional banks and they are basically offering nothing to depositors in terms of rates. there will be a bleed away from those banks into money market funds, safer banks potentially, and that will be a slow bleed to the degree that we have a recession, they will have to take more reserves onto the balance sheet. guy: is that how things normally work? we have been discussing whether or not we will get a soft landing and whether we can manage this whole process in a controlled and easy to finesse

way. i just wonder whether or not you still think that is a possibility. are we still headed for that soft landing? does everybody have the time they need to make the adjustments. will it work its way to the system and people will be forced sellers to meet requirements elsewhere? that is the dark side. the light side is we can't adjust easily and softly and we get the lovely soft landing. do you think it is still real? edward: i do think it is real, but if you look at the evidence, it hasn't happened for the most part. the mid-1990's is the only time we have seen the soft landing. if you think about the 1980's with the latin american debt crisis, the oil shock that came down, the s&l crisis, the

commercial real estate and junk-bond crises. every single time the fed has hyped rates, except for maybe the mid-1990's, it has ended in a crisis of some proportion. alix: to that point, i am wondering how much of it is fear versus reality and how you price that. the fund manager survey said everyone is over wimbley concerned about systemic -- over one week concerned -- overwhelmingly concerned about a systemic event. how do you price that into the market, the fear versus the reality? justina: i think equity investors can seem relatively sanguine because the s&p 500 hasn't moved that much since silicon valley bank collapsed. we are starting to see more risk aversion. that is still relatively

targeted. we have seen a selloff in high leverage stocks and small and mid caps and value stocks. there has been more support for big tech, microsoft, apple. that is a big reason why the s&p 500 has seemly stood firm does as values came down, people became more positive on the big tech the stocks that were maybe not as honorable to an economic slowdown. even with that aside, within the equity and credit market, you are starting to see more differentiation. guy: have we ever seen a rate hiking cycle like this with this much debt? we came out of a pandemic which felt like a pump kill your event -- a peculiar event and had a huge monetary and fiscal response and then after a period of very low rates. is the set up this time different to what we have seen previously and are there any

obvious analogues to what we are seeing right now? justina: one thing that has helped the consumers is the fiscal transfer during covid. even though a lot of the savings from covid are obviously getting drained right now. i was talking to a strategist this morning about this topic which is if you look at small and mid-caps, those are where you see the players that borrowed a lot during the years when interest rates were low and now are going to have to face the reality. a lot of the smaller companies rely more on bank loans and that is where we could see more credit tightening with people getting more worried with balance in general. alix: and what regulation will come in. thank you very much for that conversation. coming up, more on the question of the day, are we headed on a minsky moment? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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>> we are squarely focused on

doing our job, and you should rest assured we will remain vigilant. i look forward to continuing to work together. alix: you are listening to secretary of the treasury janet yellen. we will update you more. she just finished her opening statement, talking about how the banking system is safe and sound and integral to the american economy and is focused on doing her job. it sets us up for our question of the day, which is are we headed for a minsky moment? the market might be telling you know what are we headed for it and what is it telling you. aoifinn devitt joins us now. aoifinn: a minsky moment comes after reckless speculation. it is quite different from 2008 when there was the subprime ending crisis and corporate

solvency issues. this is the opposite of that, the most mundane banking behavior that has been carried on. there was a mismatch of asset liabilities in certain banks but it is quite mundane to be investing in bonds. it was the inverted yield curve that caused this particular disconnect. i wouldn't say we are coming to the end of speculation, but we have been running on fumes as we cope with the higher inflation and dance whether that will be a soft or hard or no landing. and we look at the prospects of what kind of recession we will have. there has been a lot of risk off activity in markets, only occasionally with investors willing to dip back in. guy: doesn't -- does it really matter, you have to figure out which timeframe you are looking at. think about 2008 onwards and we

have seen a period of very cheap money available to the economy. i am wondering whether or not taking a one year or two year time horizon reflects the risk built-up over that period aoifinn: looking at comparing the real estate market from now to than, we haven't had subprime lending. we got regulation in place at banks and they were much more conservative in extending credit. that is a completely different picture. yes, we probably had too much exuberance and industrials but it is in a much better state now. overall, the consumer has not been overly indented and i was actually saying how well the banks were stacking up until this recent upset because they weren't extending too much credit and corporate balance

sheets were relatively robust. i would say the long-term and short-term timeframe matters and that has to be on the mind of the fed because we have long-term structural issues we are not done fixing yet and i mean higher inflation and the short-term is the collapse we are seeing in the confidence in the banking sector. should we be dealing with that with a reversal of the fed policy? i don't think so. alix: you invest with that? i feel like this would be different if this was friday where we saw a decline in equities and tons of money going into assets. it feels like equities have gone nowhere fast, despite the negative headlines. you chase the rally on that when there is so much more work for the fed to do, even if you feel good about where the rest of the economy is? aoifinn: even though we had a pullback in equities friday, we had strong support for tech.

we have to look at long-term trends, such as ai, not going away. we even saw weekly for bitcoin again and that would had its heyday at last year and has been in decline ever since. in terms of where to we go from here, we look at the long-term trends have not change, inflation is still a factor. that means equities. they are not the most direct hedge against inflation but loosely hedge inflation. quite interesting yields without having to reach for excessive risk. that is meaningful. if you look across the capital market assumptions we are seeing from consultants and commentators, they are higher than they ever have been. that should put the investor in a good state of mind. we are also saying cache was no longer trash and now with the? over the security deposits, we are seeing a panic emerging in

terms of where to put the cash but still reasonable confidence in the money market funds in short-term government bonds. guy: to i keep my money in there at this point? do you think there will be better entry points into bonds or equities? what am i doing with the equity position that i am looking at? do i want to put fresh cash to work? aoifinn: this is a good time to put fresh cash to work very selectively. i don't see an upside there but the old stocks, consumer staples, health care, nothing has changed their. some of the trends that were meaningful in terms of why the value stocks flourished at the beginning of the year, none of that has changed.

we focus on the short-term, but long-term trends are persistent and where you put your money in cash and bonds, short-term government bonds backed by the u.s. army is a good place to be assured at least that backup right now. guy: thank you very much indeed for joining us. still ahead, google releasing its chatbots and how it will face up to the competition. this is bloomberg. ♪

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announced they will abandon a 3.9 trillion dollar fund market and exiting a joint venture. blackrock and fidelity still building up the chinese operations. rent increases for single-family homes slowed in the ninth straight month in january. that pushed the annual rate to the lowest since the spring 2021. according to corelogic, a typical rent rose 5.7% from a year earlier. orlando led the way with 8.9% increase followed by charlotte, new york, and boston. the most expensive city in the world for business travel is still new york. eca international says it will cost you $796 a date if you are in new york for a business trip, including four-star hotels, meals, taxes, drinks and incidentals. the next four cities, geneva, washington, d.c., zurich, and san francisco.

that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: let's get to the start up, where we the bay area. joining us is ed ludlow. the latest news is that google is releasing and opening up. ed: they are doing it safely and conservatively. you have to sign up for a waitlist in the united states and the u.k. and they will do additions on a rolling basis. story is that google has been working on ai in-house for a really long time in a lab environment. they have been more cautious to put it out in the public domain. back on february 8, 40 eight hours after releasing a promotional video, which we are now showing on our screen, the market realized 48 hours after the video on your screen was

released it contained an inaccuracy. the net result was the stock fell a lot because people were concerned about this issue when it comes to ai. google has been catching up with open ai. they are doing it safely and limiting the number of interactions and increase overtime, onboarding slowly. it is an interesting move. i have signed up. guy: i look forward to hearing your experiences. in theory, google has the data to make it work. it will they have an advantage? ed: i spent weeks talking to educators, long-standing players in the tech community in ai and they point out that it is only as good as the data sets feeding it. google has a higher quality a real-time data because of search, maps and that is what they are leaning into, that the accuracy of their answers can be greatly improved because it is

contemporaneous into the large anguish models. as we show on the screen, they did make a mistake, an inaccuracy in the demonstration video. i just underscore they are rolling this out on a conservative and staggered way, initially limiting the number of conversations you can have for safety purposes. that is at least with the general wisdom is when it comes to google while acknowledging they are playing catch-up. alix: to investors value this? ed: i think they are certainly positioning to be in the public markets, at least being names you think will be able to see momentum. nvidia is interesting because many analysts see them being aching beneficiary from all of the infrastructure investment needed on the computer side of powering large language models and making semiconductors and

software. overnight, we saw chet dtp -- chatgpt go down, there was a bug that let them see other people'' search information. it has very close ties with microsoft and a number of publicly traded companies, didn't see nervousness. investors have calm down in terms of how they play it. member the euphoria, we saw some obscure names tangentially linked see massive triple digit gains, because there is the fomo about being invested in the right places. guy: thank you. ed is on the list. it will be a bit of a gold rush to get in there. we will be speaking to cathie wood on bloomberg technology at noon new york time, nine a clock

a.m. in san francisco. coming up, janet yellen is speaking in washington, talking about the debt limit. we had the fed tomorrow, geopolitical risk as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. what if we live to 100. i don't want to outlive our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

alix: it is about an hour into the u.s. trading session. stocks higher. abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: tracking the s&p 500, a round trip since the silicon valley bank debacle and collapse we saw earlier. i would also make the argument you have an area of congestion calling for an equal and move higher. you had the s&p 500 slightly green over this time period. this strongly suggests the buyers will continue, made a good sign around the fed that

they will not introduce anything surprising for investors. it is relative to the s&p 500 sectors and other indexes. we are taking a look, small cap, doing great. take a look at the regional banks come up 4.7%, every thing to do with yields higher, a two day chart of the two year yield is extraordinary, looking at 29 basis points, back above 4% in a short period of time, hurting tech a little bit and investors having a hard time digesting that. really helping out not just the smaller banks the big banks. there is the idea that we are going to see more volatility. terminal -- on the terminal, you can see top regional banks and big banks and we are looking at the regional banks in white and

implied volatility in yellow and a similar relationship for the bank index in implied volatility. less volatility but you can see for regional banks, volatility expected ahead. we are seeing it to the upside today, it can come to the upside or downside. certainly fitting this chart nicely. guy: it is not as if there aren't any big events we have to factor in to these businesses. thank you very much indeed. one is what is happening with the fed tomorrow, and what will we get. what kind of forward guidance will we be getting? then the regulatory story we don't know about. there is the story circulating we could see a deposit guarantee for all. we don't know yet. treasury secretary janet yellen has been speaking in d.c. to the

american bankers association and talked about the economy and health of the banking system. she says we don't have all the information we need about svb and his signature. it is too early to talk about regulatory changes. it is being talked about. is that because it will be hard to make those regulatory changes? carhart will it be to guarantee all those deposits? kailey: there is a massive legal question, because changing fdic limits is with the authority of congress and there is a massive question if there would be enough bipartisan support. given that we have had lawmakers on both sides of the aisle expressing support for the idea of changing with the insurance limit is, you also had significant pushback, including from the house of freedom caucus that put out a statement saying that is encouraging that behavior if you were to inquire directly insure all deposits in

the u.s., a very different -- difficult political question whether this can be done. we understand the treasury is looking if it can use emergency measures but i would say this is currently being looked at. they don't necessarily think they are going to need to use it, because as we heard janet yellen saying at the event today, they think the situation is stabilizing, though they are still on watch to act again if they need to. alix: do you have any idea what that would look like? a week ago saying the banking system was strong was not cutting it for the market. kailey: they are definitely trying to project the message of calm this. it is a question of whether the market is feeling that. you look at first republic, the bank in primary focus for those in existence and regulatory in

question. what the secretary said was they will remain vigilant over the coming days and weeks and will be watching and should there be a smaller bank facing the same kind of difficulties that could spread into wider contagion, they wouldn't be afraid to act with similar measures we saw them take two weeks ago, making the depositors and the treasury, fed jointly taking that action, they are still standing at the ready but we will have to wait and see if they have to move. alix: thank you. that sets us up for the question of the day, are we headed for a minsky moment? joining us was the point person on the policy crunch of the early 1990's, a true pleasure to talk to you. do you think we need the full backing of the government for all deposits right now? jan-patrick: --gene: clearly we

are in a different world. it is a media driven world we are living in. as the government looks at the new tools they are going to need to deal with this new environment, increase positive insurance is one. making the discount window more available and less stigmatized is another for sure. there are other things. one thing that has come to my mind is some kind of circuit breaker mechanism, thereby one can basically have a cooling-off period. we have a situation that is much different than we did in 2008. guy: a cooling-off period, what do you mean by that? gene: the mechanism we have right now, whether it is started by a short seller, somebody who

would benefit economically or not, we have the use of media, including social media, that can create almost instantaneously a panic. when panics erect, you don't know where they are going to go but they are terribly destructive and are very fast. for the regulators, an ability to cool things off, whether it is very short-term, complete deposits coverage, whether it is other mechanisms that give a bank holiday almost to the way we did in the 1930's, to get a chance for regulators to act, is slowing that contagion down, will benefit the regulators being able to come up with appropriate mechanisms for the long haul for that institution. alix: with that just create more panic though? i hear that this is the first

run on a bank we saw in the digital era where you can just push a button and move your money. but does that create more panic? gene: alix, you are absolutely right, these are complex questions and for the government to basically determine which tools it wants to use when it is going to be something they have to look at with incredible care. i do believe the government ought to have the widest array of tools it possibly can, because the world is changing rapidly in these situations are not totally able to be viewed in advance. want to get the regulators the maximum amount of flexibility and dodd-frank to the reverse, which is very unfortunate. guy: if we were to put these in place, if the regulators had these tools at their disposal, what does the ledger on the

other side look at as far as regulation that would be required for institutions, in terms of what they are able to do and how they are able to run their business models, how much capital they are able to have and how much insurance they have to pay into the regulator? what does the other side need? what needs to change in terms of the way we treat and regulate banks right now? gene: i actually don't think we need to be more onerous in terms of the regulatory environment. dodd-frank is a hugely impactful piece of legislation and in any case, regulators have had for a century a provision in the law that allows them to do anything they want, either in the short or long-term if they believe there is fundamental safety and soundness of risk. there are a lot -- is a lot of risk.

piling more burdens on does not get us there and does not improve things. alix: wasn't part of the problem that some of the banks were under the cap and weren't subject to the same stress test rules that other big banks were and if they had been, they would have caught liability risk earlier? gene: it is interesting. that is certainly what is being discussed in washington. i don't think so. the basic this match is the kind of thing that in a normal examination of the process, in normal bank examiner should have picked up. a number of publications picked up the mismatch and published stories about it in months previous. i am not sure mandating the kinds of stress tests will use

for the largest institutions would have done it. michael barr is studying this, the vice chair, and will do a good job and we will learn a lot from that. we have to do a study before we pylon more rules and regulations we have plenty there. guy: seems to be a certain sense of frustration around the world that different banking regulators are treating banks in a different way. there is frustration that the american regulators have, even in the short term, backed complete deposits in the case of silicon valley bank. there is frustration the swiss have in theory madeat1's in relation to credit suisse. why is this happening?

gene: that is a really good question. there has been a push coming out of switzerland to have more homogenized rules. i think that is a good thing. we have a very diverse world and we have populations and economies with different needs. the rules are going to be somewhat different in terms of the size of the organization, the specialty they are involved in and the culture in which rules are put in place, but more uniformity is a good thing. that is why the committee exists and we can do a lot more in that arena and make really good progress. alix: we really enjoyed speaking with you. definitely come back, gene ludwig ceo of ludwig advisors. coming up, the banking crisis making spending the biggest in recent memory.

betsy stephenson of the university of michigan is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything,

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issa: you are looking live at the printable room. tune into bloomberg crypto today at 1:00 p.m. new york time, 5:00 in london for the latest on decentralized finance. this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the u.s. will speed up delivery of tanks to ukraine. bloomberg has learned they will get the tanks by autumn, a sure sign the urgency the u.s. and its allies have about getting more weapons to ukraine to hold off russia's missile artillery. the chinese president xi jinping taunted -- touted close ties to

russia and invited putin to come to china and called them the artist neighbor and copper hintf strategic partner. a $50 billion chips and science act with new limits that affected companies like intel, samsung, all of which operate in china. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. guy: the fed is kicking off the two day meeting. markets are waiting and watching. will we get 0, 25,? a warning of too much financial tightening. >> if you think about tightening financial conditions,

macroeconomic implications are fairly severe. guy: betsy stephenson joins us, the university of michigan professor of economics and public policy and a former member of the council of economic advisers during the obama administration. tomorrow is going to be all about tea leaves, trying to understand what the fed is singling. how should i read 25, 0? what do you think the messaging be contained in the messaging? betsey: they are thinking right now about how we are thinking about how it might be perceived. sticking with 25 basis points is hopefully going to send the signal that they really do believe the situation is stabilizing and that they don't need to veer from the planned path. it is clear they are not done raising rates so why pause now

is the question and if they pause now they may send the signal they don't have as much confidence things are stabilizing. so that is i think how we read that. alix: what about the argument that what we have seen in the tightening financial conditions is equal to a certain amount of hikes and they don't need to do much more? betsey: it is clear that we are going to have tightening. 150 basis points, is on the upper end of the estimates i have heard. i have heard 25, 50, 150. there is clearly some tightening and they will be better capable of assessing that. there is something there. they might say, we had some tightening, but remember the fed added into their balance sheets,

so easing went on with the lending to support banks, which conjures a little bit of that. guy: ignore any guidance the fed delivers the fed gives -- the fed delivers tomorrow? betsey: that is realizing they don't know what is going on. it will be interesting to see what they say with forward guidance. they may say we can't give you much forward guidance. chair powell has said he is a data-driven guy and they are going to go where the data takes them. what they had to pivot to recently is saying, we are going to stay tough on inflation, even when the boat gets rocky. everyone thought the boat was going to get rocky for workers and unemployment was going to get up and now it is getting tougher investors and we have panic. it is equally important that the

fed doesn't pull back from fighting inflation because the boat gets rocky. alix: when the banks have to go to the discount window in the homeowners association to get money, does that hurt or help the quantitative tightening process? i have heard it both ways. betsey: i think it undoes some of the quantitative tightening and that was the point about adding more to balance sheets, providing easing. it is directly a tool that is mostly about making the banks have the liquidity they need to make sure they can be stable. when we are looking at this particular banking crisis, unlike 2008. in 2008, there was a systemic solvency problem. we have seen mostly some banks that were mismanaged and particularly problematic, like svb and credit suisse, that has

caused readers scrutiny in a bunch of banks and a little bit of panic. panic is a liquidity problem. the fed is stepping in to make sure that banks can meet the liquidity, because that is something we can stem the tide of and that is why we are having debates about how much should be insured so people do feel confident and we can stop those panics. guy: what is the danger of inflation we accelerating if the fed takes its foot off of the break? betsey: for one thing, inflation , i hear the argument for why they could pause but how much will that effect inflation over the next month or two, they could re-raise rates and increase rates in may, so a pause from march to may doesn't have a huge impact on inflation. what would have a big impact is if people became convinced that

the fed is not going to be able to state the course in fighting inflation and we started to see inflation expectations rising, then we start to have robbins and the banking system will have bigger problems -- have problems in the banking system will have bigger problems. i think that is why the fed has think hard about what they need to do to fight inflation, and that is what they are talking about right now, trying to figure out, does that mean a pause and restart or does that mean we stay the course? either way we have to get inflation down. what people aren't talking about, it is time for congress to get in on the inflation fight party because the fed trying to do this all on its own is causing rocking this in the

banking sector and the economy. there are other things we could do. the fed needs to stay there course but it would be great if congress could join in with some actions they could take to fight inflation. guy: give me two or three things congress could do. betsey: immigration reform would ease supply shortages, making sure they raise the debt ceiling right away and removing tariffs would be another. guy: solent. -- excellent. thank you very much, etsy stephenson, university of michigan. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates,

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guy: european stocks are back on the front. banks are rising. is the crisis over or is this a temporary reprieve? volatility is pricing a bumpy few days ahead. this is bloomberg markets.