>> we are in data that is having trouble sending us a clear signal. >> it is important he laid out just how data dependent they are and the willingness to prevent. --pivot. >> we are going to consider 50, the risk of heart landing does go up. it >> this is bloomberg

surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lizza. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. equity futures on the s&p. tk, it is all about the data. i still do not know what to do with adp. tom: the jolts survey is what we paid attention to. we are waiting for claims and jobs. jonathan: some if's and but s. lisa: they actually increased

the chance of a 50 point raise hike. there is this feeling he is going to say one thing and markets are going to do something else. tom: isn't jolts signified a fully employed america? jonathan: way to elevated for this federal reserve. tomorrow we are going to get payroll. the estimate is somewhere around 200,000. lisa: every single data point you are getting is something for everyone. look at the jolts, a perfect example of that. the courts rate came in more than expected. it became lower than expected. the fed says they do not want to get involved, but they have to. tom: can we squeeze in credit suisse? jonathan: kidding remember a day

where you have got some good news for this bank -- can you remember a day where you got some good news for this make? tom: i looked at a weekly log chart which proxies to the dollar well. 10 out of moving average basis, maybe out of $11 per share down to 2.5. i think that is a 75% decline since the beginning of last year. how long can they sustain it? there is no higher high or higher low evidence? jonathan: it is ugly in the hits keep coming. stocks are down almost 2% right now. 250. 250 credit suisse. tom: price-to-book, 0.16. jonathan: that is a problem. tom: we have to listen to john

patrick when he is on today about the future into april. jonathan: we will catch with the team later on this morning. lisa mentioned this bond market shock. runk. today we come back a little bit. basically unchanged here. lisa: it is a day where everyone would call it updated down where we can save through and get some sense of the narrative we want to confirm. we get job cuts at 7:30. we start to see the courts rate decrease, --quits rate decrease in signs of the labor market. admin will get the fourth quarter household change in --

at in the fourth quarter. would hear from mark tomorrow talking about crypto -- at 10:30 we hear about michael barr talking about crypto. later on, it is the last bank of japan meeting, not expecting a huge move. this could be really telling as we prepared, especially given some pretty big bets about the yen. president biden will be releasing his budget proposal in philadelphia. we will be talking about some proposals that got cut in the proposal he had last year. none of this is going to get past. we are going to hear from anne-marie and say this is all in the water. it does signal the lines being drawn ahead of the debt ceiling debate.

i think that is where we can get some real information about how those negotiations would go forward. jonathan: that is not a budget. that is a campaign speech. tom: what is 25% tax on billionaires? on their income? are there wealth -- or their wealth? jonathan: i should expect them to. many people are not billionaires. i think the actual number is closer to seven to 800 according to forbes. tom: they all play major league baseball? are you sure they are making real money? jonathan: steve chevron, city

portfolio manager. let's start with this equity market. why is mastec bleeding? -- mastec leading? -- nasdac leading? steve: in prior hawkish episodes, using the two-year in the teen years selloff. they both will selloff, the two-year will still a little bit more and the curve will invert. in this case the two-year sold off. i think you're starting to see the bond market is trying to sniff out that the idea that this more resilient economy and persistent inflation is pushing the fed to be more hawkish, higher terminal rates. that raises the risk of growth tomorrow. in that environment where you

are pricing a growth slowdown, you do not want to have a underweight growth. tom: let's talk about the growth right now. you guys are unclaimed. this goes back to pittsburgh in 73 and 74. you are acclaimed of getting out front on bloom. what is to signal you need to see to climb back on growth? steve: i do not know if it is growth we climb back on. that is not because we are trying to be blooming. when you look at the experience the last couple of years and you think about what is being scarce or changed, you have seen supply change reconfigured, read on shoring, 500 to 700.

when you look at what is scarce, it is not growth or technology. what is scarce, that is which was old. we do not have enough infrastructure in the country, whether it is energy, materials. if you're going to be producing in the united states, there's going to be a lot of demand for industrials. you will need financing from banks. our biased is that, once we are through with whatever economic slowdown that is going to follow this hike cycle, we think the next set of leadership is going to be cyclical, not growth. it makes sense historically. you do not have technically be out in 2000, you do not have to banks and will estate leave you out in 08. we do not think it will be growth that will lead you out of the cycle. what is old will be new again. that is what i expect we will take our bullish bets. we are not there yet, that is the direction we're eying.

lisa: how much more broadly are you more weighted to the fixed income side at the expense of your previous equity allocations? steve: we have been accused of being permeable. we have been conservative for the year plus. we still do not think we are through this volatility. when the fed pauses, you can get a 15 to 20% rally. we find ourselves neutral with stocks versus bombs. maybe fixed income is a different position. trying to get ahead of a growth slowdown is like picking up pennies in front of a tractor-trailer. we are neutralish and we are about as underweight credit as i remember as being. i think if duration was a risk

that defined bombs in 2022, credit risks can increasingly that defines bonds in 2023. jonathan: i'm so glad we did not lose you to baseball. in her view, high yield spreads have no business. tom: i read carefully the johnson & johnson -- yesterday. i really studied it. it was six times oversubscribed in where it fit in with others. band-aids, listerine, aveeno. it fit in superior than all of the other consumer good companies. the appetite out there for bonds, stunning. lisa: if you're reading the perspective, did you already --

also read the base book? i am just curious. jonathan: no, i just go to the orange book that bloomberg invented that is more informative. tom: the last several minutes i avoid. jonathan: you actually watched the testimony yesterday? tom: that is good. jonathan: kristen is going to join us from goldman sachs in the next hour. yields down about a basis points. 3.9796. this is bloomberg. lisa: president biden will target billionaires and rich investors in the budget request he unveils today.

billionaires will be hit with a 25% minimum tax. income taxes on wealthy americans will be raised and the capital gains tax rates for investments will be doubled to 39.6%. jerome powell softened his tone slightly. he said policymakers will wait for new jobs and inflation data before deciding how much to raise interest rates latest -- later this month. he repeated his message that the fed is likely to take rates higher than anticipated. in israel, thousands of people headed for protest over the government's plan to cut the power to the supreme court. there may be demonstrations in 20 cities. protesters are calling it a day of resistance to dictatorship. prime minister and his allies saying they are trying to rein in a court that is overstepped its authority. russia launched a devastating barrage against cities today, at least five people were killed.

thousands more were plunged into blackouts. the russians were sent to use a new mix of weapons that mostly evaded air defenses. jp morgan is blaming former executive for the ties with jeffrey epstein. it is demanding is daily return all of its confrontation -- compensation for eight year period. stanley has denied knowing about his abuse. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight.

when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.

>> we have not made any decision about march until we see the additional data. we are not on a preset path. we will be guided by the incoming data. if the totality would indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase rate hikes. jonathan: that was the difference between day one and day to from chairman powell.

are you ok? tom: i read my first article. moulin is not even back to moulin and they are already talking about the exit. i am not thinking clearly. they have a very sick coach. some guy on twitter is thinking beyonce ought to step in and coach the rest of the season. jonathan: oh really? yields unchanged. tom: it is. the data flows they are. i think we are finally to where it is the weight. we make jokes about countdown clocks. sorry, we are there, it is two hours in 15 minutes and everybody is waiting. jonathan: lisa mentioned at 8:30 eastern time there on to payrolls tomorrow. one little wrinkle for the federal reserve, the cpi comes

in a quiet period. tom: when does the client period end? -- quiet period end? right now we will go to washington. she is our bloomberg billionaire correspondence. it is going to see you are going to be taxed at 20 5% along with the rest of the billionaires. what in god's name is going on, with the president of the united states comes out and says he will tax billion years at uno 5% , what does that mean? anne-marie: this is going back to something the biden administration tried to push forward during the build back better when they first got into office. a lot of these tax hikes and

provisions could not get through to a democratically controlled house and senate. this is a dead on arrival. it is purely aspirational. i think that is how you need to view today's budget. in recent years these budgets are dead on arrival. this is as jonathan causing a campaign event. the president is expected to make an announcement for 2024 and this foreshadows the future of how the democratic party views fiscal issues as well as where they see room in the tax code to raise taxes. it is a way for the president to outline his plan. it is a way to start that debt ceiling debate with republicans. we have two a for the republican response and their budget. jonathan: tell me about the shade of democrats. tom: i get the idea that the left wants to tax people

billionaires. where are democrats on this? annemarie: we know where we are. the democrats had a chance to close something that helped venture capitalist and private equity managers, which is the carry interest loophole. in august, two get one on board, then democrats, kyrsten sinema, they had to drop that. this goes to show, that is why it is aspirational. it is a ton of measures, none of them will get through. maybe if there is potentially one. this is not looking likely for any of these measures they are going to announce today. it shows how wide the spectrum is based on what happened in august, based on where president biden is going to announce today , how wide the spectrum is in the democratic party. how hard it is to govern we have

slew majorities on both houses. lisa: i wonder if we were having bakery of jay powell testimony on -- if we were having day three of jay powell testimony on capitol hill. which resonates more with the population in america? annemarie: it depends what lawmakers asking the question. the republicans were to continue to hammer the fed about inflation in what they say was driven by the biden administration. the democrats are very worried about going into 2024 and job losses and a recession. yesterday was more political even when we saw in the senate. i was because the nature of the house. of these are lawmakers that have two-year terms. -- obviously, you so i let a political question into powell about inflation that is hurting everyday americans.

about people who are going to have job losses about mortgage rates, climates, capital requirements. this would be day three of pretty much the same. more interesting we will have janet yellen on the hill friday morning. this comes after bidens budget. the question from our from lawmakers is going to be if she can precisely map out when we are going to hit our debt limit. lisa: the other thing is the derailment in east palestine ohio. is there a greater willingness on both sides of the aisle to pass certain safety measures that railways have to implement? that have previously been shot down before the derailment? annemarie: a lot of the democrats are pointing to this kind of regulation that was rolled back during the prior administration. there is a growing chorus, more

bipartisanship when it comes to this issue. you both parties trying to take this train derailment in east palestine, then there was one outside of ohio weeks later and put a focus on these kinds of issues and safeties. we have the media talking about it and politicians talking -- flocking to ohio to talk about its. the former president trump giving out trump water, use a growing sport that warnings to be done. if they are not able to pass the regulation, there will be a grueling of the ceo. jonathan: thank you. looking forward to the conversation a little later in the next hour. we have to talk about what is in the horizon. we're going to have a debt ceiling crisis in the united states. what is difficult to the people in the market, it is too early to prepare for it.

there is no rabbits out of a hat. they need to do something. lisa: every time they had a problem with the debt ceiling, they solved it. at this time, people feel like the lines are more entrenched. this is one of the campaign points among certain republicans who say we do not want to expand the budget and will go to our graves saying that. that is their platform. this becomes a difficult sell. what is the response to it? people are ignoring it because they have no idea and we are not there yet. industrial different. jonathan: i do not have the numbers memorized in front of me. tom: guess what? interest rates up. guess what? i thought they were some pulitzer numbers tomorrow. -- cumulative numbers. per year, and is unimaginable 10 years now that rates are normalized. jonathan: he says the debt that

stance is unsustainable. is it time to do something about it? no. lisa: it is the reason why some people are looking at the biden speech as a roadmap on how they plan to solve it. cut spending or raise revenues. how do you raise revenues? at think that this -- i think that is what he is trying to address. jonathan: we are -2/10 of 1%. it is a powell freezone. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: equity futures a little softer. on the nasdaq we are down a have percent. confronting some big yields in the bond market. the two-year retreating. we are down four basis points on a 10 year. this morning, yields are a little bit lower. the curve statements a

little bit. euro-dollar shaping up as follows on the euro side of being just a bit stronger. 10578. tom: i am glad you mentioned. look at the screen. three days on it is a shock. jonathan: these are big levels. tom: these are big moves. jonathan: the idea floating that we will have to go to six on fed farms. tom: did you see lisa tweeted the gdp now. we are in march. jonathan: spacer the arguments we have been having -- speaks to the arguments we have been having. tom: we are going to go to it right now.

rubeela is going to give you a wonderful brief. she can do this with hyper-detailed notes looking at the granular data. i want to go to one thing you alluded to, which is everyone including you on the 2020 hives signed -- time sites to look back at what they should have done at the last fed meeting. rubeela: thank you for having me on the show. maybe it was a bit premature moving down to 25 -- so quickly slowing the pace where they did. we do not have much clarity right now in terms of the growth trajectory. we know that growth is positive and the labor market is strong. we know they are sticking conforms to the inflation we are seeing. maybe it was premature. the fed has done a lot.

i think they are concerned as much as they are focused on the vision, they are not insensitive to what the effect on the economy will be. the monetary policy right now, if you look at where the inflation is slowing -- showing up, it is really not responsive to what they are doing on the right side in terms of demand for travel, in terms of demand for going out to restaurants. i do not think that part of the economy is going to respond to further hikes in interest rates. that is the only tool they have and what they will going to do -- is going to do. tom: if we look at the american economy, when we finally get to slow down does consumption drift away rapidly? rubeela: that is the question we are trying to answer. on the one side, we are going to expectancy job growth the slow. we expect to see some moderation from interest rate hikes,

especially when you look at what consumers are facing in terms of credit card debt, credit card interest rates, lower interest rates. we do think that stress is going to appear. we are seeing disposable incomes that are now positives. if you look at the recent months data and if you look at it at a quarterly basis, they are still support for the consumer. we think the debt ceiling is going to wind down. the high interest rate environment is good to be a constraint on consumers. we have been in the camp that growth is trying to remain positive and that consumer is going to remain resilient. it is just at the pace is going to slow in the second half and starting in the second quarter. growth, spending, these things have just -- upside and it is very difficult to push when the

pushback from consumers are going to come. lisa: i guess issue i have is, if we get a delayed recession, will it be deeper? it means in the mid--- meantime the federal have to do more in terms of raising rates and tricking their balance sheets? rubeela: that is the other thing we are trying to assess. if the fed is really not seeing the equivalent -- we do not think they will see the improvement in vision. you have goods prices that are going to stabilize towards that 0% contribution. you have a service sector that is still accelerating. the housing component is not going to slow down for a while. you are going to see that sticky inflation, which means the fed goes harder. the probability of a recession over tightening goes up. i am not sure what the low landing scenario is.

if you're going to see growth that is going to be strong and inflation strong, the fed is going to go lower. the hard landing scenario becomes a reality. i do not see roberson growth this year. we still think the u.s. economy still supports positive growth. it is uncertainty around how far the fed is going to go, how long they will stay there and what they'll need for growth. lisa: fair jay powell basically came out and says -- chair jay powell basically came out and said please give us a break. he was trying to push back against everything and hedge. it raised the conviction in markets he was going to go 50 basis points. how low is the bar to get 50 point base hike from the

fed? rubeela: we are still looking at a labor market that is extremely strong. 200,000 on payrolls is a improvement. it is still too hot in terms of what the fed wants to see. also looking at the weight data, not consistent with the 2% target -- wage data, not consistent with the 2% target. we do not show inflation showing substantial improvement encore prices. we are also looking at the retail sales numbers and productions reported next week. we think we will see a slowdown. how the fed balances those things out, he talks about the totality of the data would show the labor market is still strong, inflation is sticky. there is some moderation in terms of household consumption. it is a very tricky situation they are in. i think at the end of the day, i think my guess is, if they do stick with the 25.

if there is a surprise tomorrow and on cpi, the 50. tom: i want to go to your heritage you have been knowing for for years. are we becoming a mission of bartenders? i look at the hospitality. does the fed and do you care about the quality or character of jobs? rubeela: absolutely. like you said, we are seeing strength across sectors. this is not just about hospitality, the sectors that were affected by the pandemic, this is about pretty broad-based strength. we do care about that. we do think what we are seeing right now, we are still seeing pandemic effects. there is resilience in terms of or the economy is. look at construction,

manufacturing. we have seen a huge adjustment in housing but we still have nesting declines in payrolls. is that going to -- how long that is going to last? that is what they are trying to assess. jonathan: payroll is tomorrow. previous number is 517. the question is, how high is the bar for 50 basis points, how low is the bar for 50 basis points? lisa: that is jay powell's fault . he laid the groundwork. maybe that is not how i wanted to come across and give ourselves more room. they are concerned about the lack of progress they're making. if that is the case, why not go further in all of the upward revision so we are seeing continued for the this month's? jonathan: it makes you wonder,

who do they run the testimony by? it does not make sense. lisa: who does not understand with the markets read. i think that is a issue and has to been a issue consistently. they do not know what they want to signal to markets. they do not have that clarity. you get communication issues that get worn out. jonathan: if that is a area on your expertise that you lack, while lobby to have a economist in the new york fed and not someone who understands markets, someone you can speak and rely on? lisa: i am not going to answer that. jonathan: that is what is happening on this federal reserve. lisa: there's a tension between understanding how much of the federal reserve cares about the markets response to what they do , trying to lead versus to follow. there is a consistent tension that has been there for the past year. that continues with this feeling of perhaps they are not trying

to drive on the markets until they are. jonathan: i would go years and back to the speakathon we have every six weeks. tom: they have a historic data dependency. now they are restrictive. the markets have caught up to the same force in data. it has always been there. jonathan: they became so powerful through the financial crisis and afterwards. they wanted to use forward guidance to bring interest rates down lower for longer. now what is happening with the forecast is not so much about the plots, the projected employment seems to be a part of the objective. that is where they are going to get into hot water in d.c. this just gets worse.

this is happening at 3.4% unemployment. what do those testimony sound like a piece is found and that has a five? lisa: this is the reason why i our people think you won't see longer -- going up. that is what some of people are trying to -- out. the fed does not know, they are arguing about their framework and historical analog. radical transparency does not lead us -- leave us with more clarity. jonathan: i remember the days they would say, we know what to do when inflation is too high, we raise interest rates. here we are. future is now 2/10 on the s&p. christina of invesco. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: the biden administration

will unveil a budget proposal that officials say show a commitment to cutting the deficit. it calls for a summit 5% minimum tax on billionaires. it will nearly double d tax rate for investments and raise income on wealthy americans. how that plan has little chance of passing in congress now that republicans control the house. mitch mcconnell has been hospitalized after falling wednesday nights in washington. mcconnell tripped during a private dinner, no word on how badly he was hurt. he was elected in the senate in 1984. the u.k. plans to relax data protection requirements under the european union law, and includes reforms that will make it easier for british companies to mime user data and research development. businesses have cautiously welcomed that move.

silicate capital plans to wind down -- silver gaetz capital plans to wind down. the banks ought off assets at a loss in sold its flagship payments network. christie's has delay publication of its -- credit suisse has delayed publication of its report. they were due to publish the report today, but the fcc had questions about revisions to previous cash flow statements. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have 200,000 people with a normal turnover rate.

it is starting to go down to a all time low. we are redeploying people across the franchise to help us. you can move our head peak count to january. we have to stop hiring last fall. jonathan: that was brian moynihan. credit suisse wishes it was bank of america at the moment. bank of america is doing ok. down 5% to 253. credit suisse has delayed the publication of its inner report and compensation details for 2022 after regulator raised. tom: excuse me, i am coughing. i think this is the measurement of a different assets.

from the measurement of those assets, appropriate ratios of some form of coverage. they have to clarify have a measure. >> it has been a tough week for this company. jonathan: paris associates, longtime shareholder, one of the biggest shareholders. this is better opportunities in european banks right now. tom: the three-day chart shows it all. all really need to know it is a substantial move off of the harris associates exit and the shock of what we have seen this morning. >> he is in frankfurt with us for some serious financial credit as well as journalism.

what is the urgency this afternoon? >> i guess it is on a higher level for the better part of last year. the bank struggles to get anything right at this point and is reflected in the stock price. you have a performance gap now over the past year of 100 percentage points. it is amazing. tom: the reality of america is mostly by prospectus, if the stock goes under five dollars per share, many institutions have to sell. is there a breach? moments ago almost going to 3.50. is there a point where institutions are forced to scale -- cell? jan-patrick: that is why they

shared prices are so much under pressure. there is little incentive for prospect for any investor to buy christie's at this point -- credit suisse at this point. the bank has done nothing to show investors they are turning the ship around. why would you be engaged in that stock except for it being cheap on paper. you do not know. you have to check every morning if there is another bad headline coming out. that makes no sense. lisa: earlier this morning john asked a question, is there any good news we keep getting our are getting from credit suisse? is there any good news that has been drowned out by bad headlines? jan-patrick: they have a plan in place.

the problem is, it is not working. you can say let, the stock is supercheap. a lot of the bad news is priced in. now all they need to do is turn it around and produce good headlines and show us that the financials are going into the right direction and stop the outflows. it sounds easy but it is probably not for credit suisse. right now, all of the relationship managers have calls explained to them what is going on instead of building businesses and relationships. that keeps them occupied and will feed through the financials . the bank is busy with itself and cannot focus on the core business. lisa: the idea that it raise concerns about previous financial. what is the more unusual aspect about it? the fcc disclosure or they delayed a annual report, which

is usually on time? jan-patrick: it shows the core issue at credit suisse. if some technology or whatever happens with another bank, it is a good thing that the regulator is asking question. would the force of the bank to delay the report? maybe not. it shows you credit suisse is such a dangers states and the regulators are very nervous. they are extra cautious with everything credit suisse is doing. if i was a regular with a bank that is not in good shape, i would have questions. jonathan: used an important word. you said dangerous. what is dangerous about it? jan-patrick: banking is a business is of trust. they are losing it day-to-day with all of the headlines and

issues they are producing and the shared price goes lower. at some point, i am not sure if capital becomes the issue again. think about over the last 18 months have to go to the capital. that would be horrible. they really failed to turn us around. they are losing money and burned through capital. you never know what happens if you find enough investors. jonathan: these are not conversations we have lightly. are you facing they suggest some kind of existential risk? jan-patrick: a tough question to ask. i want to give them credit that they are at least trying. it is a institution. before we get to the existential question, and a lot of other things have to go wrong. the trend in the dynamics right now are like very dangerous. they have 2 -- at some point they have to do something forceful to turn this around to avoid this discussion at all

costs. the existential thing with the bank does not start when it is there. credit suisse has to do everything they can to produce good headlines and financial data over the next couple of months and quarters to get people not even thinking and talking about the problem. jonathan: let's hope that is soon for their sake. thank you, sir. the session as a down 5%. this is happening against the backdrop of work european banks did decently. 30 points of underperformance. at the same time, credit suisse is down on the year. tom: there was a day where jamie dimon stand outside the front door down park avenue, at least

it runs down there -- lisa romps down there after the show to see what is going on. the american banking dealt with. i am baffled as john patrick kneeled the water torture of this. lisa: it has not been a capital issue because there has not been the systematic connections and connectivity. that kind of has prolonged this for even further. if they have got some capitals or backers and they got some income. jonathan: people will see better opportunities. i swear that has what has been happening over the last couple of months. it is not just the water torture of a bad news, it is the fact you have some good news elsewhere. tom: sunday, march 16, 2008.

they fixed it. they got ubs in town, what are they waiting for is what i do not get. lisa: who wants to go in when you have alternatives? you have middle eastern investors saying we can use a credit suisse and we can go and they can investor be our bank. if people are looking for control for very specific reasons that you have to do with returns to get potentially. jonathan: that is a really wellpoint made. tom: i have never seen this. 4.5%. they are 95.5% debt. i have never seen that. that is how bizarre this is. jonathan: the stock right now to 53 on credit suisse. up next, the managing director and portfolio strategist over at

goldman sachs. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a new tool in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management. and move the energy that our world needs.

♪♪ welcome to a new era of energy.

>> we are in data that's having trouble setting us a clear signal. >> given the news that we have from powell. >> it's important he lay out just how data dependent they are and the willingness to pivot. >> the fed talks too much. there's too much talking, too much talk of disinflation. >> if organ a consider

re-accelerating and they are data dependent, of the risk of a hard landing does go up. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. futures negative about 2/10 of 1%. jobless claims in america. and i think we are all asking the same question. how low is that bar for a basis point hike after testimony from chairman powell. tom: revision thursday into revision friday. they've never been more important. and i just save this show is forever scarred by you. going to show opening we talk right up to the opening and bramo is talking about first step.

we're down the rabbit hole. lisa: i appreciate some discretion. jonathan: let's talk about what we talked about in the break. everyone sitting there nervously. [laughter] >> he would be asking prior interest rates no doubt. are: bored with everyone else are lots of savings. i'm get away for the price action. futures -2/10 of 1%. chairman powell for two days, that's all over with. slight walk back on day two. ultimately there may be comes down to the economic data as payrolls tomorrow cpi on the 14th and the fed on the 22nd. >> i know all the adults tell me the vix is giving me good information. it's there and equities are sort of like that immovable given the fixed income there. the economics narrative of the

last 48 hours. >> let's see how the narrative shifts and perhaps a half hour, we get the data down -- dump. one of these peripheral types of measures will take on new importance. initial jobless claims, at 8:30 am. do we get a sense of the ongoing strength from the data. you can look at some of the rates for possible softening but the bottom line is 1.9 job openings for every unemployed american close to the all-time high record of just north of two jobs. this is unsustainably hot for federal reserve that is not seen the progress they are hoping for. michael barr will speak about crypto. 50 basis points is what the threshold looks like. ed is the last meeting for governor kuroda for the bank of japan tonight. his term ends on april 8.

a lot of people are looking to get a sense of whether he wants to open the door to potentially move away from the yield curve or widening the band at a time when the 10 year japanese government bond keeps trading above it. president biden will be releasing his campaign speech, it can include a host of tax increases including a 25% minimum tax of billionaires. the carried interest tax breaks. a not -- a lot a proposal people say are dead in the water. it will be interesting to see the contours of the debate, raising the debt limit or how do you deal with the debt ceiling. given the fact basically you either have to cut benefits or raise revenues. one or the other end it's clear which side he's chit -- he's taken. jonathan: dead on arrival for pre-much every headline. >> the congressional budget office will analyze the proposals.

i'm sure the be told at gunpoint. the answer is you can look at the analysis. the heart of the matter is are we growthy enough to handle our debt. that's changed in the last six months. >> in testimony of the last few days the growth of the debt is unsustainable. >> i'm reading a lot about this getting up to speed in the new world. it's a new world for washington. >> managing director for strategy at goldman sachs. let's talk about how low that bar is for 50. what would we need friday morning tomorrow and on cpi next week. >> it's all about the trend and the fed wants to see a downtrend that's convincing. i think we have this blockbuster

trend last time. how much i think consensus looking for 200,000 or so. were 250 on payroll. i think is that enough to push the fed to 50 i think we need to put it in context with the inflation data with the average hourly earnings. we expect them to be a bit more moderate in line with consensus. we have enough on the inflation side as well. it actually kept the 25 and i think it's making sense for powell to open the door to 50 but to step up after you stepped down i think that's still a significant step. so the question is if there some type of blockbuster surprise to the upside that can get them there i think our economists have 25. tom: christian i'm going to look at your phrase macro momentum.

i think it's incredibly poor -- important. the mass of the system, the velocity of the system, which leads to anoble macro momentum. what's the macro momentum right now? >> the challenge is exactly as you said. momentum is really good. new orders over inventories. a lot of leading components are confirming for two months or so which is the global economy is accelerating actually and the u.s. is not decelerating as much as anticipated. so the momentum is positive and we've taken the credit for that already. that's the big problem. it's kind of 18, 19, 20. if you compare that to the type of rates we are generating, it tells you the market already discounts that better growth

because otherwise equities would've suffered like last year from a rates volatility. more momentum is very good. the challenge is where we are in the cycle to your statement with regards to state variables we still have inflation very high, a premium very low that just creates a bit of attention between where you are. >> looking at this mess trying to understand where were going. it says the usual equities and credits underweight bonds, and commodities. help counter consensus is that and why. >> i think as you know our view has been good rates volatility over the course of the year is fading. you have peak inflation, a banks are closer to the end of their tightening cycles and now we have this new burst of rates volatility because inflation is stickier. we've acceleration risk and we

need to get through that. in this process we have to be clear, the market has reached price the peak rate for the fed and the ecb. and it looks more symmetric. we kept it underweight at this juncture. because we feel like it's a hedge for the portfolio. in case there's this type of blockbuster data that scares the market and a lot of conversations were currently having with clients may be monetary policies not as effective anymore in tightening financial conditions and possibly getting demand under control. if that narrative gains traction you could easily overshoot peak rates that are currently priced and that means you want to have a bit of a short duration, be careful to go -- you don't go back to bonds too quickly. yields were starting to see on the front and are much more symmetric. >> how would i play offense in that world.

>> in terms of rates? jonathan: in terms of equities. >> we need to go to the sources where there's the biggest growth momentum. we been quite focused on asia, japan and china and also we like japan. it also has some certain linkage. it does have incremental capitals by the boj policies. we've been focused on markets to add cyclical risk tactically. there's a bit of a setback on some of those trades because when you have a bit of moderation of the narrative and risk appetite it could actually create a good opportunity to revisit those into that better momentum at this juncture. jonathan: really fascinating stuff. so much to discuss. laster the big problem was the volatility around china price. we thought after we closed out 2022 into 23 we would help with

that story and move on. then all of a sudden were doing that game all over again. i'm not sure where to start with christian. i keep hearing from more and more people in japan, china and europe. it's pretty phenomenal year today. lisa: do you still lean into risk at a time when the economy keeps performing. this question of duration risk versus credit risk. looking at ongoing concern about duration with the volatility you talked about last year causing perhaps a greater amount of inflation getting priced into the system or do you learn -- lean into this idea, do you go into what's working because it continues to work. >> i mentioned johnson & johnson and what their new name is for band-aids and listerine, but that was a feeding frenzy yesterday for quality bonds and particularly out long duration. long ago and far away one of the

major moments was i had a meeting that was set up -- i won't go into it right now. i will never forget the gentleman from tennessee telling me there will be a shortage of bonds. i don't understand the genetics of the shortage of bonds is rates move up because we never seen where we are right now. >> apollo just put out there report, 15% of high-yield bonds trending higher than 10%. high yields for the first time in quite a while. >> does it deserve to be and should be trading for the pattern yields relationship we are in. jonathan: she's just not ready to buy it here. just not now, just wait. she's waiting, be patient. that's her message. futures down to about a quarter of 1%. up later in the next hour, we

speak to andrew from morgan stanley. ♪ coming up on keeping it -- >> keeping you up to date with the first word. president biden will target billionaires and rich investors in the budget request he unveils today. billionaires would be had with a 25 percent minimum tax. income taxes on corporations and wealthy americans will be raised and the capital gains tax rate for investments would be almost doubled to 39.6%. in israel, tens of thousands of people headed for protest following the governments plan to cut the power of the supreme court. there may be demonstrations in about 20 cities. protesters are calling it a day of resistance to dictatorship. the prime minister and his allies say they're trying to rein in a court of its overstepped its authority. in ukraine, russia launched a devastating barrage against cities today. at least five people were killed.

hundreds of thousands more were plunged into lack outs. they were set to use a new mix of weapons. the only goldman sachs banker tied -- tried and convicted in the scandal is sentenced today in new york. roger says he suffered from a substantial mental health condition and shouldn't receive the term prosecutors want. the government says he was a key figure in the conspiracy. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm a lisa mateo and this is bloomberg. ♪

ever better. it's when disruption hits your supply chain and ryder makes sure you're ever delivering with freight brokerage to transportation management, truckload capacity and dedicated trucks and drivers.

>> i think it will be someone not named donald trump. we know we lost the house and 18, we lost the house and senate in 2022. we didn't win is nearly many as we should in 2022. our voters know this. the fact we want to win we know we need to nominate someone not named trump. and i think will win the white house. >> the speaker from a number of years ago. good morning. the conversation he had when he

was in the house it looks like we will have those conversations again later this year. >> it will be tinged with ryan gop tone or trumpian gop tone. that's a huge challenge for the speaker of the house. >> they weren't just the trump tax cuts, they were the ryan tax cuts he wanted for a long time. >> they were the everybody else wanted them tax cuts as well. i'm not sure how loud the call for tax increases is. jonathan: is this the final effort, the push to campaign on a reversal of the trump tax cuts? lisa: there are a number of provisions that are direct reversals goading increasing the corporate tax rate which is rolling back some of what we saw. there are these other aspects that did not get past good you carried interest provision and some of the other corporate tax breaks and reinvestment risk with real estate that have been

on the table but never fully passed. >> i think that tells you a lot. it shows you how hard it is to reverse something that's popular among a lot of people. >> fiscal will be front and center in trip to washington for the international monetary fund. she's in washington, annmarie hordern. i look to japan which is what we don't want to do. the numbers in japan i felt were misreported looking at nominal and real gdp, bloomberg did a great job on that. the real gdp statistics in japan were shocking with somewhat elevated inflation. the simple answer is a survey number on real gdp in japan came in elevated in the actual number -- and the number we got was way below it. the cbo leads with nominal gdp,

and they just say there are challenges out front. tell me about how congress will model this with the present politics. >> the challenge out front were on full display in the last 48 hours. when the fed chair was testifying in front of the senate banking committee as well as in front of house lawmakers and all the economic issues and politics at play, the questions were there. it's about higher inflation. the concerns about what does this mean to have a rate rising regime and what does it mean from the rate going to 2024 when some lawmakers are up for reelection. that tense moment between senator warren and jay powell put on display exactly what's happening in the american economy. it was also a subtext that highlighted what many in the democratic party view inflation different from on the

republicans. republicans say it's excessive fiscal spending and many in the democratic party say you have to look at the rest of the world. there's higher inflation in europe and asia and there are things the fed can just not control like russia's invasion of ukraine. supply tanks, etc.. this is the tension that's playing into the politics. >> do politicians understand the linkage of the higher interest rates constituents are enjoying and how it plays over the budget. i'm looking at a chart page 10 at that the cbo published in the last 48 hours. did they that that chart is moved to a higher interest rate regime? >> i have not seen page 10 of the cbo report but what politicians are concerned about higher interest rates is higher mortgage rates. this was brought up by a number of other senators and congressmen and women on both sides of the aisle.

it is becoming much harder. it is becoming much harder to afford a mortgage in america and to john's point the other day it's also much harder to just buy a home outright. you're looking at what one senator said he got a deal when he thought it was when interest rates at 10% in the late 90's with the john's point, the house was much more cheaper. >> the epicenter of the problems. >> trying to create problems. that was a tremendous come back and i wish we had that. what do you mean you haven't read page 10. >> i'm sorry, it's all in english and it's all clear. what's changed in the interest rate regime. >> we often talk about the division perhaps between what washington d c would like to do and what the rest of the country

would like. how popular some of the proposals they're offering whether they see the light of day or not whether their dead on arrival or not. how popular are they? >> higher taxes on corporations and the very wealthy american, this pulls well. this is also why the president even though he knows this has no shot at getting through congress. almost campaign event, this is a budget unveiling and he's taking it on the road to a swing state whose going to philadelphia and why because it's going to land well with the public. so this really isn't about a budget. this is about where the future of his campaign may go, when he recites run for reelection in 2024 and the future of the democratic party and how they want to differentiate themselves. >> since the rate picture is so important to all of these debt

discussions how likely is it the janice with northwestern university is a likely pick that that's a least being reported to succeed lael brainard on the federal reserve. how likely is it she's put into that post, nominated and confirmed in the near future. >> first, she is a likely candidate at this moment. she's had a number of interviews in the white house with key players, the new nec director. the secretary -- treasury secretary janet yellen but she's not sat down with the president. we don't know if this is a done deal. the issue the democratic party has with this candidate is and this was on full display in the last one he four hours there's a number of lawmakers that are really pressing the administration to pick a latino economist for this job. they say there's never been a latino on the fed board and this is an opportunity for them to

have this moment and 34 lawmakers signed up with the senator's letter to the administration. a number of them use their time with the fed chair to reiterate this concern. this is potentially a roadblock for the administration. jonathan: i would love your insight on this question or maybe just your thoughts. how seriously does this administration take the federal reserve. we all waited to see who would be the fed chair. do you remember that thanksgiving a couple years ago. they drag their feet on that, they drag their feet now. they needed a new nec director, fed vice chair it's not like anything important is going on with the federal reserve. i get why we take it so seriously because it's a fixture of what we cover every day. is it that important to them? >> i think it is important to them. there's two issues at play. this isn't just about picking

someone they think will do a good job and they have faith in. it's also shoring up the votes in a senate where they have a very slim majority. so if you have senators that are saying this needs to be a latino pick, that's good to make it more difficult for them to then go back and decide who can get those. this is senate confirmation and that's part of the problem. jonathan: thank you very much. their suggestion at times based on the fact that it's just not that high. >> i was reading page 11. jonathan: what took so long to renominate powell? >> people think it was one reason they didn't raise rates soon enough and it ended up being policy error. ♪ use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today...

could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management.

jonathan: equity futures slower this morning. thursday morning no chairman powell, don't want anymore. futures down a quarter of 1% on the s&p, on the nasdaq down about a half of 1%. yields on the front end on a two-year. three-day sessions on the two year yield down about two basis points this morning of the back of that streak. 5.05 percent on a 10 year. pretty much there 39973 on the

10 year. getting tons of attention yesterday after a stronger adp report that you tell us every single weekend month does not matter and then you trade on it. they are now back to about -1.05. in foreign exchange, it's not just the hawks of the federal reserve this week, it's over in europe, the ecb talking up 50 basis points. austria saying may 4 meetings in a row. the italian central bank up this morning saying i don't appreciate you coming out and talking about upcoming meetings. tom: i like the idea we were at the point. where it's now the level of where interest rates are creating a real tension and a nuanced tension here, there and everywhere. the street loves to look at spreads. they love to look at dynamics.

the first and second derivatives. the public just looks at the level. i haven't looked at the 30 year mortgage this morning but it's about 7%. it's the only level that matters. >> trying to work out of the federal reserve for quite is sufficiently restrictive. >> could you imagine fed officials say i don't appreciate what he said. the fact he came out with more guidance. >> if we agree to be forward and have no forward guidance. will that's forward guidance. >> what did they call that the fed? >> important yesterday the bank mortgage out to a new recent high 7.3 percent. >> amazing. let's look at the stocks that are moving today. silver gate not having a great day after coming out and saying they want to have an orderly wind down of bank operations and

a voluntary liquidation of the bank because that's the best path forward. basically they're also saying the wind down and liquidation plan includes full repayment of all deposits. the concern here is what other shoes are there to drop within the crypto industry fallout. this had become a bank that really that the bank literally on crypto and is suffering the consequences. it is spin off thursday. we've been seeing more of these spinoffs. ge is expecting its profit margins to widen and its aviation division after spinning off that particular jet engine unit so this is going to be interesting and though shares are up by 8/10 of a percent. uber is exploring whether to spin off its freight logistics arm in a sale. >> i was going to say. is that pizza delivery. >> this is one of their biggest

-- logistics is everything. i'm a big believer in logistics. i am a complete believer in it because that's how you strip out the inefficiencies in shipping and supply chain disruptions. if you can understand how many drivers to get to a different place it's a big issue especially truck drivers, there's a huge shortage of them. >> this is riveting. tom: for logistics. jonathan: did you not realize it spin off thursday. >> can i point out off the gloom of two years ago the stock has done a double. within the world can end for general electric. he's managed a double. >> is spin off, to be the solution to the conglomeration we saw 10 years ago. everybody gets together and

cycles turn in. there's a special on logistics and i'm so therefore it. >> can't wait for that. tom: time is urgent. jonathan: you can tell. [laughter] tom: senior portfolio manager global debt at invesco. what's the first thing you look at every morning when you look at data on the bloomberg. where is your focus and that broad term? >> you have to look at treasury rates given how vocal the fed has been and where we are. and the curve has been in focus for everyone. affects across-the-board i think so far this year has presented the biggest opportunity and it's moving a lot so those are two focuses. >> why are you not in camp 50? >> i think powell muddied the water a bit for sure and the chances of that are higher on the table. but i think they make even the

communication this week there was a little bit of backtracking yesterday but not quite. we get payrolls tomorrow and we get cpi next week. to go back and justify that we step down 75, 50, 25 back up to 50 it puts you in a place where you need to go to 50 again in may. can they do it if you have strong data? tomorrow with payrolls and cpi, for sure. if you go back to some of this fed speak they are clearly concerned on the inflation side and that they're not making enough progress on the labor side and inflation still have a long way to go. but i'm not sure that the noise we've seen in the data in january justifies reacting to the february data. it's so noisy we almost have to get to the march data to see with the real trend is. jonathan: why do you think it is noisy? why is there not signal there? >> we have quickly shifted in

the last three to six months from concerns of a hard landing in the u.s. and globally to synchronize growth globally. you in earlier china reopening -- you had an earlier china reopening. then you've had u.s. data accelerate where people were talking about the end of the world is coming. >> disinflationary process has started. >> we've shifted from this hard landing to know landing and i think the idea of no landing is a bit optimistic. it's a matter of where we push that landing to and how strong is this recovery and how long does it last. but i think it's hard to look at the data and say with confidence we know where were going. it's noisy. >> i would love to get you in this divide. we saw this massive gap.

we have them saying laster was the year of duration risk. this is the year of credit risk. we have them saying that's the opposite. duration risk is important because if you look at the data its risk assets and supporting growth. where do you stand on that? >> i think last year was a very clear you can look at the market and say we can be sure. i don't think there's is obvious of duration trade but i think duration risk is very clearly important. if they step up to 50 in march and you have a higher likelihood of 50 again in may. you're talking about another 100 basis points of hikes in the next seven weeks and the potential that i would assume if you step up to 50 at 50 that you'll continue going and you're talking about a terminal fed rate that's much higher and another, we look at twos at 5% and that's a high level if you're stepping up and are we talking about fed funds at 6.5 percent or much higher level and what the markets are talking

then you bring duration risk back into the picture. >> at that point where you fall in terms of thinking that credit risk to that point really has it priced in this type of scenario versus it will hold in because a lot of companies have just turned out. >> when we look at corporate balance sheets, they still generally remain robust and it's healthy for the medium term and i think the problem becomes if you have a much larger step up in rates again and where are these companies funding step up needs. mortgage rates in the u.s. i think that's critical. i think it's the most clear transmission mechanism in the u.s.. we also have the majority of people have 30 year mortgages. you just don't move if you don't have to wear as we look globally at a think other markets are more constrained by the mortgage

markets, canada, the u.k., sweden and can we then have a diversions and policy as a result of that. >> invesco has a broad mandate every single day. the china norm is johnson & johnson spinoff, whatever it is, it's like a pop. whatever they're doing with band-aids and aveeno and the rest of it. yesterday eight parts, six times over some -- describe the demand for people now to lock in 10, 20, 30 year yields. >> from a corporation side. >> i think people still look at yields are materially higher for the last five years, 10 years. but on a historical basis even when we talk about mortgages at 7%, that seems outrageously high to the last decade that we've seen. but it's not the 1980's levels we've had.

that's a more normal level than saying my 2.5% 30 year fixed mortgage that i'm going to not worry about. that's the world of free money. >> you teedo up a trade saying there were opportunities in affects in your that conversation and you talked about differences in pass-through shaping up potentially some division with policy and the upcoming years. is there an fx trade in the back of that for real estate? >> we are finally within central banks starting to see this potential diversions. as you know we are generally have e.m. bias. i think the story remains the same there we remain constructive and i think even in central banks have done so much even if the fed does more i'm not sure they have to chase it. perhaps you'll price out some of

the cuts but we remain constructive. the question against it is what dm affects is are you short against it or how do you funded? i don't know if it's strictly a dollar story. i think when we zoom out and say we at the start of the $10 cycle. yes i think we have confidence of that. on a more short-term basis, it's a lot less compelling to own sterling because of these housing market divergences. >> the framework screams short sterling. i won't put words in your mouth. i'm not suggesting you get short sterling. i've got sterling savings two. futures on the s&p. just thought i would be transparent. >> totally. christmas is good to be great. >> cheering quietly at home for a week or pound. >> this is bloomberg.

>> keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the biden administration will unveil a new proposal today that officials say shows a commitment to cutting the deficit prayed sources tell bloomberg it calls for a 25% and among tax on billionaires would nearly double cap gains tax rate for investment and raise income levies on corporations and wealthy americans. the plan has little chance of passing in congress now the republicans control the house. the u.k. plans to relax data protection. it includes reforms that would make it easier to my user data. businesses have cautiously welcomed the move. privacy groups are critical. bank of america has been one of the few major wall street banks to avoid mass job cuts. one reason is flexibility when it comes to dealing with staff. we spoke with the ceo.

>> we redeployed people across the franchise including coding of investment bankers to help in that banking. our headcount peaked in january. it can move but you have to stop hiring. >> he says b of a's attrition rate is now approaching an all-time low. the bank has 200,000 employees. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight.

go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson. get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a new tool in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today...

could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management. for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. >> we are watching what's been happening in the crypto space and what we see is quite a lot

of turmoil. we see fraud, a lack of transparency. lots of things like that. what we've been doing is making sure that the regulator financial institutions we supervise and regulate our careful are taking great care in the ways they engage with the whole crypto space. >> chairman powell of the federal reserve on crypto, planning to wind down operations and liquidate its bank there it a little bit more on that in just a moment. your premarket shaping up as follows. futures negative one third of 1%. yields basically unchanged. there's your forehand on that front end. just not the five. a couple of basis points off the session. we are about 43 minutes away from jobless claims in america and then 24 hours after that it's all about payrolls and onto march 14 and cpi. >> that's what were in right now.

the rates we see on the screen as well. i'm can it go back on the conversation we just had. it is only one statistic this thermometer right now and that's the 210 spread ended really hasn't moved all that much. jonathan: seeing it a negative triple digits. tom: we barely pulled back. -105 right now. do you follow bitcoin? jonathan: not much. tom: it's grinding lower. it's just technically a mess. and i don't know what to make of it. >> chairman powell mentioned in the crypto space. >> speaking of the crypto space is sonali bassett joining us right now. with an update. there was a point and i believe 1981 were young robidoux ended up running the dallas fed and they have the look at five banks

a weekend shut down. so i know the headlines this morning is bank a, but there's also a second bank. a signature bank. it's new york state regulated. do they make it a 4:00 p.m. this afternoon? sonali: they do have less exposure to crypto than silver gate. tom: they are not a pure play on crypto. sonali: silver gate, 90% of its assets were tied to the crypto market. this -- there's a lot of question around the reason they got into crypto in the first place was because it's so hard to be regional and community bank in north america. >> i don't understand, was it eight cups of coffee ago that everyone in manhattan was a crypto expert. jonathan: people were quitting their jobs. tom: crypto to christmas

accounts and going to bitcoin. is it dead? why is it not dead? sonali: if you think about it we had a really great conversation recently. think about it. he makes this great point that if you're playing -- paying and want to pay someone in china your venmo account doesn't -- you can send them 100,000 dollars via payment rails. so the rails in the country and globally are outdated. it's hard to transfer money. >> use case makes a ton of sense. stablecoins, that's the next part of this conversation. her back by dollars treasuries and bank of new york mellon and managed in part by blackrock. >> jeremy is one of those who wants to see some of these banks fail or seize crypto actors fail so you can read out those actors encourage some regulations run stablecoin backed by assets and get on with the use case

scenario we were just talking about. how much closer are we to that being a reality. simply the lowest hanging fruit getting washed out. >> to the extent regulators have been -- have failed leading up to the collapse of ftx, stablecoins would be the next place to start getting it together. it is the most direct rail to the united states digital ecosystem when it pertains to the u.s. dollar. it's not like the u.s. federal reserve has their own central bank digital currency like china does. stablecoins is really important. it's a huge on-ramp to the crypto ecosystem but also a way to pay for things digitally in a way that requires normal u.s. dollars. which is already happening. >> that's where the focus will be. we've been talking about this for months. how far does the contagion go. it seems to have lost some energy. people thinking there'll be a couple of shoes but otherwise things will chug along as

previously had been experienced. >> another firm is failing and no one's blinking an eye because people are getting so desensitized. billions are being lost in the meantime. something else its industry -- that's interesting, what they are concerned about his stablecoins. they are worried stablecoins will take up much -- what more banks that have recently done. that's why they're pushing for more stablecoin regulation. tom: the reserve money market fund, a federated lead on this. everything i read about stablecoins believes that the goal, there's no aim or goal. they want to be like a money market fund equivalent where were always worried about breaking the buck. do we have the audit process in place to study if stablecoins or on a one-to-one basis with whatever the underlying is. >> if you look at some of the

biggest issuers you saw one essentially get pulled. tom: then why are we talking about this? i don't understand where they are. this is more a fed based issue. this is serious stuff. sonali: that's the big question, should they be regulated more like money market funds. i think one way to look at this. fig about the way some of these companies are used at coindesk are using coinbase. they have $2 billion worth of cash. essentially money market bought ash funds and a growing amount of money in usdc. will more firms decide to say let's go usdc. and then the fed needs to start getting on it. if that's the trajectory so we don't have another silver gate in the future. lisa: to shift gears a little bit it's not silver gate, it's jp morgan. this headline coming out where they're basically going after and blaming the former executive

for some of their association with jeffrey epstein and sex crimes that have been -- that he was accused of and convicted of. what is this all about, why are they highlighting jeff as a part of this. >> what's interesting about this entire saga is the reason jes staley was in trouble in the first place was because european regulators started to look. that process never happened in the united states with financial regulators. with any financial firm that had any dealing. and now you're seeing this issue play out in court as it pertains to jp morgan not among regulators because of the role jeffrey epstein when jeffrey epstein was a client. >> what did jamie dimon say about it this week. >> the responsibility is being pushed on to jes staley and on top of that they provide more information than you're seeing in existing court filings which is that they are alleging that

he had a closer tie to the young women that are alleging wrongdoing when it comes to jes staley as well. jonathan: all of his pay back from his time there. sonali: $80 million or so. tom: how does he respond? >> he's been saying that this is not accurate. and so this will again play out in court and not among regulators, but for jes staley in particular this is playing out in international courts. >> thank you on several funds. the latest just to push forward for you in the next 34 minutes or so you get jobless claims in america and then pushing onto tomorrow. looking for something in and around 225 and the question i keep getting on the bloomberg from a lot of you this morning is how low is the bar for that 50 basis point move from the federal reserve. 225 and zero point 4% core cpi

next week month on month. tom: i don't have any wisdom here. lisa: what we've heard from people is what is the greater liability. disappointing and causing a more accommodative market are going to 50 and being a flip-flop or that has to go back. >> they are asymmetric and the least risk is 225. >> the balance of risk shifted after chair powell in the last couple of days. futures down 2/10 of 1%. andrew morgan stanley coming up next. >> in the opening match of the

day on stadium one. don't forget you can watch all the action on tennis channel, daily live coverage starts. ♪ of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world.

♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance to guide you through a changing world. so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release,

i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieting. which made the golo plan really easy to stick to. since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and i've kept it off. golo is real, our customers are real, and our success stories are real. why not give it a try?

>> economic indicators are fairly strong today. this is a head fake market

rally. >> the rates might be much higher than we expected for a long period of time. >>'s the rise we've seen in marketplace measures that's what's keeping me up at night. >> the next time that that cuts we don't think it's going to be to the sero-lower bound. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. i'm calling it 193,000 thursday that's the four-week moving average of the claims number that we are waiting with bated breath for in 29 minutes. jonathan: we get that number in 29 minutes. as tom pointed out 24 hours away

from payroll in america. very familiar with that number, 517,000 which is just absolutely ridiculous. we continue to expect a 50 basis point hike what's interesting is it's 50 basis points with 225 from payroll and 0.5% of a month core that sweet -- next week. tom: and shows the uncertainty out there. nominal gdp adjusted for coronas inflation way off the mark. i winter with this study is for tomorrow i really just don't know. jonathan: what if you get a massive -- and can i edit everything offset in the last month? lisa: we are talking about rate cuts. tom: substantial disinflation.

they are sort of staying quiet. jonathan: great conversations in the last month one that stuck up for me is team mapping this is table tennis for me we have had two years fourth in two months and the separating point was the february 3 jobs report. lisa: my favorite part is we are getting ping-pong narrative staley now. we are shifting into something even more dramatic is it inflation art is it an economy crashing? tom: i am the worst table tennis player of the three of us. lisa, i'd like to chime in here. she's the one standing 10 feet away from the table like the chinese going like this killing it. jonathan: what is that, really

good? lisa: i beat the kids every time. let's move on. [laughter] tom: you are just so driven. lisa, the markets are ignoring this are we still on table tennis? lisa: the markets are ring this. go ahead. tom: the answer is the markets are ignoring this yesterday the move is life goes on. lisa: the markets are ignoring what? i guess this is the question. if you buy the economy, perhaps we are less sensitive to interest rate hikes and risk still looks good. then you have him saying the risks are you're going to end up with inflation that gets a little bit too hot and it's going to lead to a credit

program. jonathan: big adjustment at the front end of the curve. tom: the adjustment is there. the spread is where we were. yesterday, you see it in every single data point but i'm going to dive into this right now. and your sheath is really good at this. andrew, the wonderful and fractious narratives, plural, at morgan stanley. what is your conviction right now? >> it's great to be here with you so we still think that the u.s. economy is going to slow as we go throughout this year and i do think the market might be a little too fixated on this will they, while they -- won't they.

the recent data we had payrolls and retail sales was very strong. it worked against that narrative but we will see what the data is this month and how it looks with the large seasonal revisions we still see a lot of indicators pointing to a slowdown. we still think we should be positioned for decelerating growth, weaker than expected earnings. we still think that will be the dominating narrative. jonathan: is it spread evenly between regions or are there regions you favor over others? >> i think the story in asia is pretty notably different from the story we see elsewhere. if you talk to investors and ask why they are concerned about markets, decelerating growth, hawkish monetary policy, high competing rates on cash, decelerating earnings growth,

expensive valuations. that's not the story with asian equities. these are reasonably valued versus history growth is going to be improving and inflation is not high. the banks in asia not hawkish. the competing asset is actually quite low. i think this is a story were overall we still see a lot of signs that suggest this is a time to hold less equities than normal. but within that, we are much more optimistic about stocks and we think there is a different macro story that can help support that. lisa: how can you justify underweight equities yet more constructive on credit? >> i do think this is an environment where i think it's a little bit better suited to credit. some of that is i think in a decelerating growth environment it is still tough for earnings. our strategy team we are worried

about operating leverage meaning leverage underperforms but that decline we don't think creates credit problems for the bulk of the credit market. i also think when we think about incentives as yields move higher think about this from a corporate treasurer perspective. paying down your debt looks more attractive than buying back your stock. the idea that at higher yields we might get more credit from the activity rather than shareholder friendly activity is another part of our thinking. lisa: the international approach and picking regions and also your appreciation of credit and how it functions how different is the picture for credit in different reason -- regions? are there different sensitivities potentially more given variable-rate interests? >> i do think that is a great

and important point. i think i will cross -- i think across these outcomes you see that. it's a market we like a lot. it yields 4.5% in euros. that is the same yield you got back in 2003 and 2004. these companies refinanced their debt. the longest duration in that market we have seen in its history. the leverage fund market or you have more issuers or the tech costs are resetting quickly, there you have it more significant. my colleagues are cautious on the real estate side. we think that is a market where you can get hit from both directions. the cap rates need to come up. but financing costs are up significantly. that's an area where we are more cautious.

i think it's still an area where we want to avoid relatively to the market. jonathan: i'm quite interested by the credit investors more than equity investors. is this a way of saying i want to bet on fallen angels becoming rising stars? >> i do think this is an environment where they think the incentive to be more conservative would seem to be there. if you combine ceo surveys it seems relatively downbeat i think that still relatively downbeat and then just the map of where bond yields are i do think this is an environment where you want to play for credit improvement more broadly. just a fallen angels specifically i think that could be more complicated because i think there, you are dealing

with companies and it might be harder to support that. but i think the idea i think it supports the idea of credit equities overall. jonathan: and your, thank you for that. going into that data a little bit later. you are asking the difference why do you like credit versus equities right now, there's the explanation. lisa: i remember all of those years at they would say were going to issue debt to buy back our shores and i'm like why are they putting up with this? really they had no alternative. suddenly, it's looking a lot better to buy back those bonds and all of a sudden the shareholder from the activities go away. jonathan: the leverage is not in the hands of the bond issuer anymore. lisa: which is why people like credit even though there could be because on the horizon. jonathan: there always because

on the horizon, right? lisa: i can always find some but i think right now -- jonathan: they are darker. tom: feeding frenzy on the j&j bonds. i got a call last night fidelity didn't want to take it. they gave me some of it. this is 40 years, 5.2% and i went on a large and i'm already down 66 days of interest because prices came down. jonathan: that's lisa's fault. tom: priced out. lisa: jay powell has nothing to do with that, just throwing that out there. tom: it's a new bond world after all. jonathan: 20 minutes away from jobless claims. this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with

first word, i'm lisa mateo. in israel tens of thousands of people headed for protests over the government's plan to cut power of the supreme court there may be demonstrations in 20 cities. protesters are calling it a day of resistance to dictatorship. trying to rein in a court that is overstepped. president biden will target billionaires and rich investors. billionaires will be hit with a 25% minimum tax. income taxes on corporations and wealthy americans will be raised. in ukraine russia launched a devastating barrage against cities today. at least five people were killed and hundreds of thousands more were plunged into blackouts. russians used weapons that

evaded air defenses. roger says he suffers from a substantial mental help condition the government says he is a key figure in the conspiracy to loot the malaysian fund. general election expects profit margins to keep expanding over the long-term as an independent business. ge aerospace expand services jet engines. the expect to see revenue growth. ge is set to breakup next year with aerospace remaining it's primary business. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomgerg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo, this is bloomberg.

>> if you want to solve inflation you have to keep raising rates. of course, don't forget the political -- business element here. they don't want to raise rates too much and kill the economy. they're going to continue this path and be careful about raising rates but at the same time once the election is over they will go full government. jonathan: that's quite an accusation.

founding partner. basically saying this fed is not going as hard as it should for political reasons. lisa: i think a lot of people felt that was the situation back in 2021, back in 2020 people think there is at the same kind of response that there should be at the same time we are not necessarily saying unemployment go up or inflation come down. jonathan: he stressed for summer, very cool jacket. tom: he's a great guy. i did a magical thing. jonathan: tom stocking. -- thomas talking. she interrupted, that's very rude. tom: i know. i did a magical panel with mr. mobius and has depth of knowledge of how em has changed is stunning. is the em now the same as the one from 20 or 30 years ago?

i'm not sure. jonathan: even 10 years ago. it's full of tech companies. tom: about the mobile phone company and the concrete company in those days are gone. it just evaporated. argentina peso that's the frontier economy falling apart. you have to find the economies that will do well. jonathan: argentina with love you calling them a frontera color -- economy. tom: on our radar now managing director partner i should say of economic research always informative as well i'm going to cut to the chase, henrietta, the budget outlook is 19 xl spreadsheet lines the interest payment is modeled out at 6.8%

of the budget and it is jaw-dropping their model of what we are going to pay in interest over the next 10 years on a per year basis i thought it was a cumulative summation and it's not. 10 years from never going to pay 1.4 trillion in interest. >> i think everyone will make the case that it is out of control but no one will do anything to stop it. there is a debt ceiling, we are talking about $300 into the deficit. it is definitely a humongous number but there are no plans on the horizon to dented. tom: many others say, down. the mathematics of this is the implied economics of the moment.

if she we have the growt hiness to get out of this? >> you have the growth right now but how does it compare to other nations dealing with bigger inflation than we are? a big question about it from our lety circles, how much does it matter and what are we look like compared to our peers? i think in general the feeling is in the voters are telling you we love to real about the deficit when it's convenient but we don't have any bandwidth or the backbone to do anything about it. you will see that play out in the social security and medicare debate. republicans calling to extend the 2017 tax cut. nobody is willing to do anything about it but they love to talk about a. lisa: one reason people be

talking more about tiktok because it's easier for people to wrap their heads around is that how you can interpret some of the discussion you see within parties otherwise is lacking? >> this is entirely comparing and contrasting and what's interesting about american politics is almost everyone believes that china as a problem. you will see the president's budget come out later today with $885 billion just for defense. that is humongous for a democrat or a republican. on the others, we have the issue of china so it's coming out saying we need more capabilities on the defense side we need to continue to bolster ukraine because it's a proxy war for what china would do to taiwan. it's tremendous focus on china from every direction. whether it's ip, defense spending, tiktok, ai. view the budget on the

conversation and it helps everything makes sense. lisa: given the needs or the asks and given the reluctance on all sides to raise taxes ahead of an election season, what is the likely had we have a problem here that has a different character than the previous debt ceiling debates? >> i was talking to a former colleague about these. everyone says this time is different, this time it's a train wreck, exactly none of that is different from how it was in 2011, 2013. we have seen two consecutive republican speakers heads roll with the government funding bill and relying on democrats to provide the bulk of the votes. that's what's going to happen this year as well i find a lot more consistencies than

differences. just a normal part of the house of representatives. jonathan: always great to get your thoughts. let's be clear, though, i connect the cynicism with our markets will. the biggest risk is that people believe it is it different this time. they'll ignore it and i'll keep ignoring it. there will be no pressure on washington, d.c. to come to any agreement and that's what it's going to push right up to the edge. tom: 2011 the operation ordered everything is fine until suddenly it's not. jonathan: when you start to believe it's different that's when the market will come to an agreement. let's hope it doesn't go that far but ultimately that is the fear some people have about how it will play out. lisa: i'm concerned it is a tough issue and how much of the

nuance gets lost when you talk talking points. we are talking about a massive budget, these are all important discussions. what are younger individuals in my house talking about? i'm just wondering whether that makes their job trickier because there isn't that much room for nuance. jonathan: do you remember when president obama was saying to push everyone to come together. come to an agreement and right now that's not happening and may not happen until much later in the summer. tom: my long-term moving average on claims coming off the great financial crisis, are you ready? 400,000 was normal coming off the crisis. it's a smooth moving average. it's shocking how far we are from any kind of normal on this number.

jonathan: lurking in the shadows, can you see him in the studio? tom: i can't see over there. he's hidden by his entourage. jonathan: martin keys in the building. 195 is the median estimate in the survey. from there, continues into payrolls tomorrow morning. tom: 75 basis points. [laughter] jonathan: i'm not sure what it would take to get 75. cpi still to come next week. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go lights. go big city lights. go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night." go boldly. emerson.

what does it mean to be ever better? its your customers getting what they ordered when they expect it. discover how ryder ecommerce makes your customer's experience ever better.

everything's changing so quickly. discobefore the xfinitymerce makes your10g network,experience we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age, we couldn't stream a movie when the power went out. you're only a year older than me. you have no idea how good you've got it. huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now. i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.

tom: from 2009 and clyde path lower in claims. the pandemic getting in the way changing the mathematics and the stunning shock of 200,000 fully employed america claims week after week after week it is not a statistic. the first look at this anticipated statistic, michael mccain. >> we are waiting for this first look a lot of people clicking on the internet at this time

because the labor department drops it at once for everybody and here we go. 211,000 so the week after week after week was interrupted by a change in the direction and the amount. 211,000 is a pretty low number but it is a significant change from the trend we have been on which is week after week after week. numbers coming in below estimates. 13 of the last 14 weeks we had jobless claims below the estimate. we are significantly above that at this point. we are looking to see if last week was revised at all and revise tiger still don't have that number, there we go. tom: continuing claims. >> we should mention this because continuing claims going up 1,718,000.

we are seeing people taking longer perhaps to get jobs and that's going to be, this is going to be the kind of trend that the fed and everybody who has been predicting a slowdown in the labor market is going to look at. what we don't know is whether this is going to continue but we are anticipating that it should. it was an increase of 21,000 they did not revise. tom: they did not revise ok that helps. real activity, see it with the red and green blinking futures somewhat catching up. the two year yield 5.03% indicating for basis points. 10 year yield 3.98. 111 basis points of massive inversion we migrated back to

106 basis points and we do a little better now with lesson version getting out in front of the story tomorrow. lisa: we are talking about not that many jobs. we are talking about this question of just how glover coming from in terms of the base. how uncertain we are at a moment where the fed is watching this data so carefully. tom: i look at the trend here and the two above and i'm doing this real quickly i can't be like a key the end of december 2022 the site of 6, 7, 8 data points. can you figure out state-by-state where the jump came from? >> you can on a delayed basis. tom: can big or little state jump it out of whack? >> know because you're looking at total claims here.

you're going to be looking at states that have the largest working age population unless there were a strike or something at a plant, at a company. the week of february 18, it was new jersey and rhode island with 2.5 thousand. those were the highest uninsured employment rates. the largest increase for the week ending in february 25, massachusetts. new jersey up and rhode island. interestingly enough california was down 2800. and kentucky was down 6000. the biggest states we are seeing the clients. kind of hard to put this all in perspective. california would be leading the pack. they are not at this point

although we do still have the whole thing about getting severance pay and keeping you out of the claims market. tom: right now equities lift here for those of you on radio the nasdaq with a little spike care. flat on the xp x. don't up a fraction. vicks 19.3. i want -- our next guest has the advantages of working for data processing. the payroll checks like nobody from sea to shining sea at the adp franchise, what do you say in your adp granularity? >> we see wages are strong. adp provides payroll services for over 25 million workers. we are tracking wages very

carefully especially as the economy is looking in the face of inflation. we are seeing a little bit of a deceleration but still too high to be consistent with the 2% target. that speaks to the tightening of the labor market. it's not maximum tightness right now we've seen things come down. we've seen jobless claims go up. it's not at the maximum like it was in the summer and early for of 2022 but it's still very tight compared to where we were before the pandemic even though the unemployment rate is about the same. lisa: how difficult is it to talk about the labor market as a whole rather than specific parts? yesterday, in the beige book there was an anecdote about a construction company having to commission a plane because it was cheaper and more effective to get workers, than trying to higher in the region. how much are you seeing strength

you never seen before in specific industries? >> it's a very fragmented market. some parts of this economy are so interest-rate sensitive. housing, construction. yet some of those sectors are chronically under supply. so you're seeing a real mix in the market right now there are companies that over hired or may be extended hiring aggressively during the pandemic. there are smaller companies that we track in our data but never really got a leg into the market because the labor market was so competitive. they had to compete for talent with larger firms. it's a mixed bag but the common thread is that wage growth has been stronger since before the pandemic throughout the economy. lisa: how bifurcated is it that the low income sector has

outpaced the higher income sector has a continued to widen as you see some of the layoffs in the tech sector and the workers that have gotten stripped out of certain areas? >> we still see double-digit wage growth and the adp data. that growth has come down. it's done a lot since again the summer of last year. but overall, the wage moderation has been really modest. in fact, there's only a couple sectors were wage growth now is lower than it was before the pandemic. information tech is one of those sectors. even though, as we see layoffs we are seeing information in the tech economy. the sharpest decline in wage growth of any other sector, that's notable. tom: the markets here

recovering. a lot of red in the screen and now we are back to a mixed screen. i should point out the 210 spread is now at 105 basis points. interesting to see if it breaks to lesson version. nilo richardson i just did a long-term moving average eight minutes ago. critically, the long-term moving average in march of 2020 the end of the pre-pandemic is the same as it was right now 219,000 is a close approximation of long-term moving average there. are we back to pre-pandemic? >> no. the economy has changed structurally. there are so many things that are different than they were in 2020. just the advancement and

adoption of hybrid work for example. we are seeing double-digit wage gains in the loan was part of the pay scale. that is a complete change from the pandemic. during the pandemic these low-wage workers were barely keeping up with very low inflation. we even saw declines over the years and pay growth for the littlest end of the spectrum. these workers have become much more competitive post-pandemic as noted by the double-digit wage gain. the structure has been turned around in the last three years and the question is will that endured through the next three years? lisa: before we let you go, we are hearing from michael mccain that the whisper number is 240 7000 -- 247 million. i'm curious what you believe will be the number based on the

anecdotal information you're seeing come out. >> i think you're going to get a solid number. let's start there. i think you will get strong job growth based on the payroll data . we are not predicting the bls if you compare that with other data like jobless claims, you're still saying a robust seen but i don't think you will get half a million jobs. tom: we should have you on every day. i can't say enough about the granularity of payroll analysis, data processing. legitimate green in the screen. two features of 56. we are even seeing the two year yield come in six basis points so people are digesting the data and as you say reclaiming towards the whisper. lisa: perhaps it's not going to be as robust as we previously thought. the fed won't feel that much pressure at the march 22

meeting. jimmy the volatility on the backs of all these numbers, the feeling of how much the view of the market and the narrative hinges on specific numbers, the big one being tomorrow. tom: it's the parlor game of it, i get it. we have all sorts of other data and stuff but you just wait for the data. which we just did and it pulled back a little bit. lisa: i wonder how much people are not really trading the cash instruments and are basically hedging. tom: a lot. lisa: i feel like that's what's happening more then going for the level. tom: there's been a lot of academic study about that. a critical conversation on ukraine, russia, and put in. william browder will join us. this is must listen. we do that next.

>> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with first word, i'm lisa mateo. the biden administration will unveil a new budget proposal today that officials say show a commitment to cutting the deficit. sources told bloomberg a calls for a 25% and among tax on billionaires, nearly double the capital investment for corporations and wealthy americans. the plan has little chance of passing congress now that republicans control the house. mitch mcconnell has been hospitalized after falling wednesday night in washington and eight says mcconnell tripped during a dinner. he was elected to the senate in 1984. bank of america has been one of the few major banks to avoid massive job cuts. one reason is flexibility.

we spoke with brian moynihan. >> including investment bankers to other parts of the franchise to help us so you can move it, our headcount peaked in january. he can move but you have to stop hiring and that's what we had to do. >> it is not approaching an all-time low the bank has more than 200,000 employees. boeing will work with shield ai to speed up the military's use of the startup self flying aircraft software. shield ai has been deployed in combat planes since 2018. >> global news powered by more than 2700 journalists, i'm lisa matteo this is bloomberg. we dissect the market from every angle. helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible.

because investing isn't one size fits all. allspring. purposefully divergent. every day, millions of things need to get to where they're going. and at chevron, we're working to help reduce the carbon intensity of the fuels that keep things moving. today, we're producing renewable diesel

that can be used in existing diesel tanks. and we're committed to increasing our renewable fuels production. because as we work toward a lower carbon future, it's only human to keep moving forward. what do you see on the horizon? because as we work toward uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. >> continues to monitor this reactions.

our analyst assess that has posturing is to deter the west from providing additional support to ukraine as he wages further escalation of the conflict. he will probably remain confident that russia can defeat ukraine and wants to prevent western support from tipping the lots. tom: we are shocked by the reports we've seen in newspapers a few days ago i asked can you figure out how to get on the show here. here is an email i never received a nemo like this. quote i right to warn you about the assassination plot against you by the russian security services in the forcing future to happen i did receive the fresh info on directly identifying you as a target for hit. that is the bill broader reality. lisa: that is not my reality.

that is a culture that has been unearthed and has been behind what we've been witnessing over in the eastern european region. tom: i can't say enough about it with the clarity of 4, 5 years ago mr. browder joins us this morning. bill, i can go eight ways here but i can't. we've got a battle going on in ukraine. the russians had to stop the nazis and they did with a wall of bodies. translate that cannot walk that mr. putin knows over what we are witnessing in eastern ukraine this evening. >> putin basically doesn't care about the number of casualties. he has this huge military advantage that debt this --

death of his soldiers doesn't make him sleep worse at night so they're losing soldiers at a rate of five to one. they were throwing convicts, conscripts, and anyone else who they've been able to corral into this meatgrinder. they are throwing them into battle. these people often times don't even have the proper armor, guns, or whatever and they're being shot down on a major basis. the purpose of this is to try to soften up the ukrainian lines and no matter how good the ukrainians are at fighting back if wave after wave of soldiers are being thrown in this meatgrinder it has a negative impact and that is going on right now as we speak if you watched all quiet on the western front this is the type of tactic that is going on right now as we speak. tom: when you were in chicago we

were weaned on thomas show on -- thomas shella this is all about peyton. what has changed in the last year? what's new? >> the main thing that's new is that putin is showing himself to be, you know, totally not credible in all of his chest thumping alpha male threats. he has a weak military. he didn't when in three days. he's running out of ammunition. his gas, like mail against europe didn't work. he thought that europe and the americas wouldn't react harshly. he thought we wouldn't supply weapons, we half. he has misjudged this word from start to finish and as a result

russia is not in a strong position. russia is not going to win this war with the capacity and capabilities they have right now especially if the west continues to provide weapons. lisa: how can we expedite the end if it's basically a meatgrinder at the front lines which is tragic to watch. you used to be one of the largest portfolio managers. financially, have we done everything possible to perhaps expedite an end to this tragedy? >> there's really two areas that we need to be continuing to help ukrainians on. first, the military side. they have asked for jets which we have not provided. they have asked for long-range artillery, which we have not provided. we have only given them a fraction of tanks than what they asked for. the one thing we can do for them

is to starve prudent of the financial resources to continue to fund this for and we have done a lot on the financial side but the one huge loophole and you can drive a truck through this loophole, is the sale of oil and gas. putin receives between 500 million dollars and $1 billion a day even after all the sanctions and that money is enough money to continue to fight this war. we have to figure out a way to stop him from getting that money. as long as he gets that money, there's no stopping this were from his perspective. lisa: it's deeply painful to read the articles about what's going on. bill, i wonder how long it will take and whether the war can and with the vladimir putin the still the leader of russia. >> there's two ways this work it

and we can give the ukrainians enough military weaponry so that they finally overcome russia which i think they have the capacity to do or the other thing that could happen, and this scares me a lot, is as this war drags on he can throw more men into the meatgrinder, the west can lose interest. starting to hear noises in washington particularly, i don't know if it's the far right of the republican party, let's not finance ukraine anymore. that's what they're saying. if those french people start to become mainstream america as the single most important backer of ukraine right now. if there was a change in leadership putin could win the war that way instead of winning on the battlefield.

that is probably the scariest prospect we're facing right now as far as ukraine is concerned. tom: the dramatic exercise does it work now? the shock and damage to a key bridge to crimea, a number of weeks ago so many in the west seem to be looking for a dramatic moment to put mr. prudent in his place. -- mr. putin in his place. >> the summer last year completely unexpected for me and anyone else who's been following this the ukrainians broke through the russian lines and retook 54% of the territory that russia had previously taken. it was dramatic. all of the places they pushed russia back and russians for running back retreating. it's not entirely impossible. interestingly, where i get this little inkling that there is a

chance of that happening is the russians themselves. putin's chef, he's up there screaming bloody murderer saying if i don't get enough weaponry from the russian government we're going to collapse and then everything will collapse. he's the one saying it. now it may be for internal political reasons but if i hear him saying that it makes me feel like maybe there's a second chance for the ukrainians to do the same they did last summer. on the other hand, putin has unlimited numbers of people he can throw with this and he doesn't care whether they die. tom: thank you so much for joining us with this update. the book is freezing order i will not in swords. it is chilling to say the least. i think the coverage has been so good on this. i find myself reading the new

york times, you know, the battle reports but what's chilling there is for broader who's really up to speed on this alluding to this horrific modern movie. all quiet on the western front getting rave reviews. lisa: we thought this kind of warfare was over. we thought we wouldn't see trench warfare, the levels of casualties we hear and read reports of every single day and here we are with the leader of a nation who does not care about casualties is what we are hearing about. tom: we'll have to see. we'll have more in the coming days. we're going to stagger forward into jobs report after the claims report pulling back more employment angst. equities catch up. in the yield space, ok. we'll go with that. a little lesson version this morning. please stay with us being linked

-- beneath the headline numbers will be jobs day. this is bloomberg surveillance. did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf? we're going to have to outlaw golf. absolutely no golf in this house! not under my roof! since we started working with empower, all of our financial questions have been answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- nope. always part of the plan. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com

these days, financial future to empower what's next. our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app or upgrade to the speed that's right for you today. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music)

jonathan: equities just about turning positive it in the last 30 minutes with a rally on the treasury market. your equity market is positive 0.1% and the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get started for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, chair