st. >> this is all reopening, stimulus. >> the real question is beyond the summer, after we get this reopening-driven post, is it sustained. >> our eyes are on substantial progress right now. >> love does this look like six month down the road -- what does this look like six months down the road? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jon: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures totally unchanged. dreaming a reopening is easier than actually doing it. execution risk is front and center.

tom: you're going to talk tesla and microsoft again today. it really is a boom economy. palladium out to a record high. some of these commodities go away. we are on 10,000 watch on copper. there is some interesting supply-demand constraints within this boom economy. jonathan: demand is good. can supply meet it? it could be a big issue for auto manufacturers. this will be the story for the weeks and months to come. a lot of people focused on that. can we meet those expectations with supply? tom: we are going to see commodities pop into the inflation watch. what i would say is on a tuesday, it is a stew of

information. we are trying to get some clarity. jonathan: here is some clarity from ubs, the estimate is 173. it is one more bead in a big line of beads. lisa: markets are shrugging off all of those. the fact that they sidestepped the chip shortage issues, people are struggling. the expectation is so high, which goes back to ubs, the dream of reopening is perhaps easier than the reality which is fraught with frictions. jonathan: morgan stanley. that was a morgan stanley quote. i want to talk about ubs right now. what is material these days? lisa: and why did they not reveal the fact that they did have losses and that is why their shares are suffering. what are people missing in terms of risk management?

jonathan: what is your take on that? credit suisse, a combined hit of $5.5 billion. ubs, $774 million, not material. it is in the context of what the earnings profile was for that quarter relative to what your competitors lost. i don't get it anymore. tom: you do leverage and you are successful, so you do it again and you leverage up further, and you do it again. i would suggest that the leverage up by these firms, their exposure to a family office, it is a hedge fund, their exposure was once successful, twice successful, 3, 4, 5 times, and then you are not. you see that constantly when you study failed hedges. jonathan: don't you think it is rich if a bank says we were not

required to disclose until we reported the earnings this morning? at the same time, follow-up by saying we need more disclosure from client. how do you talk to the shareholder about that? they are not willing to disclose things like this ahead of time. tom: one of the little secrets of this business is how corporations vary in their tone to shareholders. jonathan: some of this has been tone deaf. there is a price action. good morning. 41 point 78 on the s&p 500. euro-dollar, 1.69. in the bull market, yields higher by one basis point. 157.74. do we call it a snooze fest in d.c.? lisa: i would never call it a snooze fest. there is not a lot of actionable markets, but there is action in

washington, d.c. that is where my focus is. president biden will be making some comments on the covid response. people are expecting new guidance from the cdc saying that if you have been vaccinated, you don't have to wear a mask outdoors. people who were unvaccinated may not have to wear masks outdoors, also giving some indication of what the u.s. aid may be to india and other hard-hit places around the world. this is another thing i'm watching. 2:30 p.m., a senate subcommittee is holding a hearing on a tax incentive. this is a senator warren special as she is having people testify, not among them leah cooperman who rejected them. this will be interesting to see how much democrats have united on raising taxes on individuals or couples making more than $1 million as well as tax hikes elsewhere. we are also going to be getting that roll of earnings, including

microsoft. people will be looking at their computing unit as well as alphabet. a look at how much advertisers revenue is up given the fact that people are moving around more and the world is opening up a bit. tom: i'm glad you mentioned google. they sometimes fly under the radar. i refuse to call them alphabet. let's do our app -- our last averaging banner. we are comparing ubs with ups. jonathan: that works. tom: thank you. there is one banner i want to talk about, which is united parcel service not providing 2021 revenue and earnings guidance. that is a little bit of a surprise and maybe is a little bit of a tone of the american uncertainty on q3, q4. jonathan: just how good, that is where the uncertainty lies. thank you, tom. here is some news for you, president biden will require

contractors to pay workers at least $16 an hour in an executive order to leverage purchasing power to boost working conditions for low earners. ahead of that executive order. this is the moment where we start to talk about unit costs, etc. bank of america played out some nice research. the number of inflation on earnings called year on year have tripled, the biggest jump going back to 2004 when they started tracking the data. raw materials, transportation, labor, major drivers of inflation. they already have raised prices to pass through. that has to be the number one issue in the coming quarter. tom: what is so important is the reversion up to the main to -- to mean. let's bring in jennifer lee. jonathan: can we start on how you are reading the corporate

guidance around cost pressures, around the labor market? jennifer: good morning, everyone. this is where the uncertainty is lying. how much inflation is built up through the system. if we were talking about this nine months ago, people were saying that inflation would be slow to come back. but we all know that when things open up, and they are opening up clearly, price pressures are starting to rise. i am interested in things like the ism surveys. they are clearly important. but what companies are saying is very key. one of the ism surveys like the manufacturing one, higher price pressures and finding how labor is difficult to come by and their pay more for wages and all that -- they are paying more for wages and all that. what companies are saying is

very critical to the inflation outlook and we see inflation higher in months ahead. tom: do you model in wage inflation as part of that new inflation? jennifer: we do. wage inflation is part of the entire inflation picture, not just goods in short -- not just goods and services. with companies struggling to meet new found, they need people to create these bridges, to be on the factory floor, to be on the restaurant floor. in order to get more people, they will have to start hiking wages and introducing more benefits to lure people back. lisa: does it feel transitory? jennifer: a little bit, yes, because we are not there yet. this pandemic is still on everyone's minds. things are moving forward, but it will depend on which area,

which country we are talking about. the u.s. has been at the forefront and has been moving forward quickly thanks to the fast pace of vaccinations. in the u.k., things are opening up. it is looking better this year. you have other countries who are still struggling on vaccinations like in europe and india. that is where things are still at the beginning stages. jonathan: jennifer lee, thank you. we have a ton of demand. can labor supply meet it? more recently, the fiscal effort of the last couple of quarters has held back labor supply as demand is starting to pick up. the trend is just starting. lisa: there have been a number of studies looking at whether the benefits have kept people out of the workforce for longer. people not going back to school, children and mothers staying at

home, things of that nature. there clearly are these frictions and people are looking to immigration policy and joe biden, why has he not loosened it up more for qualified immigrants to meet the demand. it seems like there are longer-lasting legs to these constraints. jonathan: thank you for citing my calls, getting me back into the country. on a serious note, margins, margins, margins. let's talk about margins this year. demand is going to be great. this is what morgan stanley is trying to get to. this is the execution risk. it is your ability to meet that demand. that is a difficult equation right now. tom: it is sector to sector. well said. what is so important here is the new tone of active management. it is not what you do do, but avoiding the minefield, seems to be the theme. i don't think the minefields are microsoft or google or apple or amazon. they are going to have margins

that are pretty good. jonathan: coming up, a little bit more cautious. we are going to follow up on that in the next hour. equity futures up on the s&p. the bond market up one basis point to 158. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden is expected to sign an executive order that would raise the minimum wage for contractors to $15 an hour. it is currently $10.95. it will start next january. the latest census figures are good news for republicans. texas will gain two seats in the house under the new numbers. states in the northeast and midwest will lose seven seats in a shift of political cloud to were struggling -- in a shift of political clout.

americans may soon get clearance to take off their masks outdoors. president biden is excited to announce that the cdc will issue new guidance on wearing facial coverings outside. some public health experts are calling for less strict guidelines as warmer weather arrives. more troubles for boris johnson. allegations of incompetence in his government have picked up. he said he would rather see bodies pileup than ordering third pandemic shutdowns, despite multiple reports. itv that a conservative party loaned him the money to resurface his government, a highly unusual arrangement. investors seem to be impressed with tesla and wrecker profit in the first three months of the year. musk sidestepped an chip

shortage and tesla has to deal with lofty expectations after its stock rose last year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

>> making this sort of change for that top .3% of taxpayers

would restore fairness and do so in a way that would not affect investment and allow us to make high return investments for which there has been bipartisan support. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. here is the price action. you are two day fed meeting commences in washington. equity futures unchanged. not even .1%. $18 trillion worth of the s&p 500 reporting earnings. what a lineup for you. a little bit later, microsoft. just short of 1.21 on euro-dollar. tom: the fed meeting tomorrow,

maybe that will move us in the bond market. romaine bostick will have all that. right now, we go where we fear to go. 74,454 employees. marty schenker joins us. once again, taxis and extended because of the pandemic. i go back to a heated meeting i had with the imf commissioner during the bush administration. he promised nothing would happen. they would raise the budget, bring in more revenue, it did not happen. why doesn't happen? marty: when you get down to it, lawmakers are concerned about the issues of a very strict irs enforcement on the population and their constituents.

they hear from them when the irs comes knocking on their door. tom: you and i are in a transitory tax bracket. jonathan: let's have that conversation. tom: larry summers $1 trillion. marty: this is not the first time an administration has said let's spend the money and we are going to get multiplier effects of returns. $80 billion will get you $800 billion is what the biden administration thinks. getting it through congress is another matter. tom: this is all about entrepreneurial business going to their politicians and saying, maybe not. jonathan: it is something else. restoring cost money. if you can make more money, isn't that the key? marty: that is their argument.

for every dollar you spend on irs enforcement, you get $10 back. that has been the argument over the last three or four decades. they talked about increased irs enforcement, but it never happens. jonathan: can you make the same argument with capital gains? can you say it restores fairness, but also leads to high revenue for taxes? marty: fairness is in the eye of the beholder. it only affects .3% of the taxpayers. you wonder about this whole question of fairness when it is such a narrow amount of people that it affects. lisa: there is a question about whether the tax hikes are in order to pay for some of the plans that biden has or whether they are trying to impose fairness. senator warren holding that

fairness in the tax code hearing starting at 2:30 eastern. our tax hikes on the table -- are tax hikes on the table regardless of whether the plan gets passed? marty: my impression is yes, that no matter what happens to the second stimulus effort, that they are determined to make wealthy individuals pay more and that this is a philosophical argument as much as a fiscal one and that the biden administration, which can impose these tax increases with only 50 votes, is determined to do it no matter what. lisa: how much democratic support is therefore this philosophical argument given that a number of them come from higher tax states with possibly even a majority of people fitting into that tax bracket as democrats? marty: they are holding fire until they see how this plays out. but as we all know, the salt

issue, the state and local tax adduction i'm a is a very emotional 1 -- state and local tax deduction, is a very emotional one and they are not going there unless that gets addressed. tom: the senses -- census, we got the first look yesterday. really interesting. marty: the fascinating thing for me, it was 800 people was the difference between new york keeping its representation and not. i think we may over interpret this. if texas gains a seat, does that mean that that representative is going to be a republican? texas is becoming a more purple state and has been for the last decade. you just don't know where it cuts. jonathan: great to catch up. marty schenker no -- marty schenker at bloomberg.

is it a philosophical issue or a fiscal concern? tom: you mean texas? jonathan: yes. tom: jon, i have been there. i get upset about this. jonathan: my question would be whether they have the mandate to have this change in the approach. tom: this is nothing more than a scheduled c debate. it is not about the 1040, it is about a huge body of america who is entrepreneurial, they make a lot of money and take a lot of the inductions, and that is what they are going after. jonathan: did you play that game at school and you pass something around and at that time, you got to talk? tom: we are funneling in all the rich people into one group. that is baloney. this is about deductions. they failed at this four administrations ago. lisa: i think that there are

many different debates because you are talking about the irs and he cracked out, the $80 billion investment. the idea of capital gains taxes is not about closing loopholes, that is about raising taxes. some people say that will open more loopholes so people can get around this. the key issue, to your point about the philosophical argument is how much does that have clout over a party that is wealthy. if you look at this, this is a populist message that speech -- speaks as much to the truck voters as the biden voters. how much considers this is there? jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. coming up, jack ablin, looking forward to that. the s&p 500 up .1%. good morning. up one basis point on the 10 year.

euro-dollar, 120.70. crude positive .8%. it is going to be ok, tom. a beautiful new york city. this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm excited when i think about the two day meeting of the fed beginning. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures on the s&p positive. nasdaq 100, positive almost .1%. $18 trillion worth of earnings on the s&p 500 alone. let's talk about banks. not any particular bank, just banks. it is interesting banks will talk about clients to disclose more. not talking about anyone specifically, but here is ubs down by 3%. what is material?

is it in the context of what happened with broader earnings? it is the message we got from morgan stanley. yields higher by one basis point to 158 on a 30 year. lisa went through some of the supply issues through the week so far. the two year a little bit soft. the fed decision tomorrow, tom. tom: we are not going to go through the granularity of general electric or eli lilly, but we will find the larger picture. ge with an organic revenue growth that is single-digit. eli lilly is 3% on the challenges of margin and business. jack ablin joins us now with cresset capital, their chief investment officer. it seems that in a boom economy, away from big technology, there

is an industrial struggle for both -- growthiness. why are the corporations going to struggle? jack: we still are trying to rebuild the supply chain and get the product to where it needs to be. some of the issue we are seeing from the industrial companies is just rebuilding. some of it is translating through at least two some -- to some higher price. something like 60% of their constituents are planning to raise prices. many already have. tom: is there a public to accept those higher prices? jack: right now, there is. some of it is fueled by $1600

check. we have a consumer public that has the wherewithal to sustain these higher prices. the most striking inflation number in march was pretty strong. jonathan: where is that consumer price tolerance? do you find it broad-based, within certain sectors, where do you find it? jack: clearly on the investment side, we are seeing it in housing, and anything related. we are seeing a lot of it in construction. food, energy, pretty much all over the place. where consumers are turning away some remarkably are on staples. jonathan: do you think this is due to some higher virtue of cycles?

jack: the fed has a long track record of controlling inflation, but it could come across. i think that is part of the fed's mantra right now, we are not worried about inflation because we can always tamp it down later. interest rates right now are over 100 basis points to low in the -- too low based on the simple model that we use between copper and gold. the fed has televised a do-nothing policy for the time being. lisa: even though you expect bonds to lose value and yields to rise, recent notes so you are underweight at equities and funneling cash into gold instead. can you explain why? jack: it is more of a hedge than anything else. what we are arguing is that financial assets are there to preserve purchasing power.

if real rates are negative, financial assets do not serve that purpose. what would serve that purpose, gold, which has had a history of preserving purchasing power. the asset has an interest rate of zero, but so do financial assets right now. the incremental disadvantage of gold is nil and we can preserve purchasing power in the meantime. as also a hedge against the fed sitting too long. it would be great for stocks, but it would also be good for gold. lisa: we also -- we all appreciate a tuesday morning agamemnon. certain equities being more that way than others. do you find that there are some that you can go into? jack: i think cyclicals certainly are a good way. we have developed a strategy for

our clients that we call quality dividend. these are companies with not only strong balance sheets and the ability to raise revenues, raise dividends, but they have pretty strong pricing power. that has been an area. we have shifted away from pure balance sheet quality into quality dividend as we are navigating this next wave. tom: the next wave as well. the boom will end at some point. how do you hedge details of the boom economy -- how do you hedge the tail to the boom economy? jack: that is a huge issue. part of it is we are going to see some valuation contractions. one of the things we know is over the last decade between 2010, 2020, roughly 180 percentage points of the s&p's

280% move was valuation expansion. when 10 year rates got to 0.5, we recognized that valuation expansion will be part of the cars for a while. we have to turn our attention to organic earnings growth and dividend yields. when we look at the market from that perspective, cyclicals are better positioned than growth simply because the reciprocal of the earnings yield is lower. historically, if you strip away valuation expansion over the last 10 years, value stocks have -- cyclicals have outperformed growth. tom: since lisa is going political, i'm going to go def leppard. forget about agamemnon. that is the way we feel right now, jack. we feel that this is it, everything is fine. what do i not want to own for

when armageddon comes? jack: i think with the slowing, there are a lot of pre-stretched valuations. low-quality companies, zombie-oriented companies that are running like crazy, whether it is -- i am not going to single out gamestop, but certainly that ilk. a lot of speculation in the market. while it is hard for me to get my arms around bitcoin, it is certainly not a currency. if it were a currency, it would have a volatility that is seven or 8 times lower right now. part of the reason we chose gold over bitcoin was because of that consistency. i think you want to be out of a lot of the companies that are trading pe out of hope right

now. that is going to be difficult. keep in mind that q2 and q3, we will see nominal rates near 10%. jonathan: record numbers. jack: we are going to bask in the glory of strong growth. i have been around a lot before, but i fight the tin year two-state of 1.6 -- the 10-year to stay at 1.6. jonathan: is a company dependent on capital or the low labor costs that have dominated the previous cycle? my colleague keira bloomberg bring up that point in the -- my colleague at bloomberg bringing up that point. very low labor costs. let's see what that looks like in the next report.

tom: i want to go to the cost of capital and the idea being free lunch. just goes to the real yield. look for the real yield on friday afternoon to drive for the inflation cost. the artificiality of where the real yield is is the reason zombies exist. jonathan: whenever you are naughty, you always promo that show. that is just a tom keene show. lisa, you have written about this. lisa: there are a lot of companies that perhaps would have gotten out of business. what happens to them? what do they do to the economy given the fact that they continue and will the fed let them fail? i cannot imagine we will see mass defaults in the near-term. jonathan: the fed has kept it to lose or not lose for long enough to allow the labor market tighten. who are the zombie companies? i have heard several people talk about this.

it is a really important conversation. if we allow the labor markets to get tighter, will be ubers -- will the ubers of this world survive? tom: another minnesota mining report. is 3m a zombie company because they cannot keep up with big technology? lisa: my kids buy plenty of scotch tape. there is a real question about wage hikes and how nimble this economy is to change, to a very changing dynamic in labor markets and debt markets if we get inflation. jonathan: the latest isa report, the sheer of manufacturing saw increases last month -- the share of manufacturing saw increases. tom: i got nothing from you.

i give you a def leppard lira and i got nothing -- def leppard lyric and i got nothing. jonathan: equities 41.82. in the bond market, yields are higher by one basis point. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden is stepping up pandemic assistance to the rest of the world. the u.s. will share its supply of astrazeneca's coronavirus vaccine with other countries. it is putting together an aid package for india. president biden has been focusing on making sure americans are vaccinated first. kamala harris is pledging $300 million in humanitarian aid to stem migration from central america. the money will go to water

mollo, on, and -- guatemala, honduras, and el salvador. it is trying to cultivate a close relationship with a biden administration and congress after being caught off guard in 2017 when it faced a boycott in the persian gulf. seven prominent firms to do consulting and lobbying were in washington. shares of ups are wising. third quarter -- shares of ups are rising. it is a sign that companies figure out how to make domestic deliveries more profitable. shipping containers are falling overboard. that is sending millions of dollars of cargo sinking to the bottom of the ocean. the accident is disrupting supply chains for hundreds of retailers such as amazon and

tesla. experts say the person to speed up deliveries is raising the chance of making mistakes -- experts say the pressure to speed up deliveries is raising the chance of making mistakes. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

>> this is humanity against the virus and if the virus finds a

way india and other countries to infect people or to evade the vaccine, then everyone on the planet is at risk. we have many good reasons to fight coronavirus around the world. jonathan: the tragedy in india. that was bloomberg school of public health. good morning. alongside tom king and -- tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we advance almost .1% on the s&p 500. about one third of the s&p in market cap in total, it is about $18 trillion worth. one third of the companies in the s&p reporting amounting to about $18 trillion. yields are higher by one basis point. euro-dollar about .1%.

crude, $62.33. that is the price action. we will be talking about cdc guidance around wearing masks outdoors and vaccinated individuals looking for updates and clarification today. tom: an update and clarification is needed not only here, but in the crisis in india and brazil. even tokyo having a real challenge. we have wonderful perspective from amesh adalja. he joins us now. good morning and thank you for the repeated briefs. we all are numbed by the statistic ratios we looked at. how do you interpret elevated cases with the lower death we see in america. how do you interpret that simple ratio? dr. adalja: the way i interpret it is that is how the vaccine is supposed to work because we gave the vaccine to high risk individuals, nursing home

residents, and people with comorbid conditions in the community and we were trying to separate cases from their ability to cause hospitalization and death. that is the reason we embarked on this process was to try and tame covid-19. we are continuing to see that decoupling as more and more high-risk individuals get vaccinated so when you go into a hospital, it is not the older people getting covid-19, it is younger people who are not vaccinated where we are seeing cases occur and those tend to be people who do not require hospitalization, who do not die. some of them do. but that is what we're trying to do, we are trying to remove the public health emergency. it is successful so far in the united states and will continue to be successful as we get vaccine into people's arms. lisa: what you make of the fact that people were hospitalized our younger and even sicker? is it because of the various or

is it because the bulk of the people who are not vaccinated our younger? -- are younger? dr. adalja: yesterday, my last patient was a 47-years-old woman who had morbid obesity who came in fairly sick with covid-19. that was someone who did not have access early on because in pennsylvania, we gave vaccines to nursing home residents and high-risk individuals but in certain peer groups. some of them might be vaccine hesitant and have risk factors for disease. the same is at play in michigan. we have to get vaccine into high-risk individuals who happened to be younger and that is a group whom i think that they are not going to get severe disease because they are younger and not realize that their high-risk condition is something that is going to outweigh their age. equivocal evidence whether the variants are more severe. some evidence says yes, some

says no. it is not something that we can say definitively. we know that these variants are more contagious and younger people are more likely to be risk tolerant and not vaccinated. that variant is finding young people to infect and it is infecting faster. it is different walking through a hospital now in most parts of the country than just a few months ago. that is because of the vaccine. lisa: you talk about vaccine hesitancy and we are expected to hear from joe biden today talking about updating the cdc guidelines as to what vaccinated individuals can do. one reason you are value will -- you are valuable is because you can dovetail the signs with patient psychology. will this be enough to bring people into the vaccine schedule who might otherwise have been hesitant? dr. adalja: there is a group who was not going to budge. i dealt with them all the time. some of them are colleagues at the hospital that are healthcare workers. they are not going to have it under any circumstances. there is a group of 20% or 30%

of the population that is on the fence and one of the things we need to do is show them how this vaccine, which are safe and effective, are going to change their lives for the better, that things are going to be different once you are vaccinated, that this vaccine is a value to their personal lives. for too long, that was not emphasized. guidance about what vaccine people can do safely is something that will nudge them in the right direction. tom: how do we nudge them in the right direction if they don't know the levels of sick and not death that they confront? i see a willful egner rents about the shades of sickness -- a willful ignorance about the shades of sickness. can we educate the public on that reality? dr. adalja: sometimes it goes too far and you lose the trust of people because it is true that the younger you are, the less underlying conditions you have come out the less likely you are to need hospitalization, the less likely you are to die. you have to tell them that you

do have certain risk factors, certain individuals have risk factors for severe disease. you could be somebody who was left with long-haul symptoms and that is something you don't want to have anyway, even if it happens in 5% or less of people, it is something you want to avoid. you have to show people that there are consequences that occur if you get infected and the best way to prevent that is to become fully vaccinated. jonathan: great to get your thoughts. dr. adalja, johns hopkins center for health security. i think he touched on an important point. sometimes it can go too far and what you end up with is an irrational fear of this disease. there has been issues with that too. tom: there has been. we are almost in a clumsy stage where we are seeing phenomenal decreases in deaths, but the pros have a huge level of angst about the people who are sick. jonathan: what i want to

understand is the follow on on this as well. once we start to move further away from this pandemic, do we start to tackle things in a bigger way or do we treat them as taboo issues that you cannot talk about? are we actually going to have that conversation in a bigger way? tom: in america, no. plain and simple. jonathan: that has been a big problem, but why are we not having a serious conversation about it? tom: because it is america. jonathan: we are more fearful of having people on the streets in the open air than having that conversation. tom: i don't know what else to say. there is a huge differential here, mostly it is in food consumption, size of meals. like me and lisa. lisa: any time. jonathan: coming up, chris

verrone. the plot thickens. lisa: i think this will be the issue we have to deal with, pandemic weight gain, and we have to talk about that. jonathan: equity futures up three on the s&p. this is bloomberg.

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♪ >> we just can't catch up after going through a depression every bust with this health crisis to suddenly having a runaway bull market. >> the economic data is great. this is all reopening, fiscal stimulus. but how much does behavior change? >> beyond this summer, after we get this reopening driven boost, how long is it going to sustain? >> all eyes are on what constitutes substantial progress right now. >> what does this economy look like six months down the road? i think that is where you are going to see real inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: earnings season revving up. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures positive a little