♪ mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all due respect to new york city, tonight, mark and i are at the ceer of the universe for real. ♪ it is the early-stage special, sports fans. i am here in iowa. these are two states that make up 1.4% of the entire population of the united states but have an outsized role in determining who will be the next president. let's start with the activity where you are in the granite state.

hillary clinton's flurry of town halls, there were two issues on which she seemed to be on offense. the first one is gun control. in manchester, clinton talked about her new proposal that has four main points, tightening loopholes for gun shows and online sales, closing additional gaps in background checks, stopping domestic abusers from buying guns, and repealing immunity for gunmakers and dealers. she rounded all of that out with rhetoric like this. hillary clinton: when the nra was on one of their tirades and calling the alcohol, tobacco, and firearms enforcers jack-booted thugs, president h w bush resigned as an nra member and said, no, i'm not going to be associated with that. i mean, ideally, what i would love to see is gun owners, responsible gun owners, hunters form a different organization and take back the second amendment from these extremists.

[applause] john: the second issue where clinton went on offense was in her interview with "the today show," benghazi, fueled by kevin mccarthy's comments that the benghazi committee has dragged down her poll numbers. hillary clinton: this committee was set up, as they have admitted, for the purpose of making a partisan political issue out of the depths of four americans. i would have never done that. if i were president and there were republicans or democrats thinking about that, i would've done everything to shut it down. john: mark, my friend, hillary clinton on offense on those issues. my question for you, whether doing that will help her campaign get on track? mark: to quote the last woman on a national ticket, you betcha. the gun issue is an emotional issue for democrats now. it allows her to be in the league with martin o'malley on the far left on that issue and

stand up for something she believes in. she's always strongest, like most politicians, when talking about what she believes in. we got a preview of what the hearing is going to be like. she was indignant on the issue of political exploitation of the hearings. mr. mccarthy is going to regret that comment. john: mark, you mentioned the gun issue and hillary putting herself on the far left to be in the league's with martin o'malley. you left out the person who is on this rare instance not on the far left, bernie sanders, who has a mixed record from a liberal perspective on gun control and gun measures. there are not many places where she can outflank bernie sanders to the left. she is going to take advantage of this. we been talking about the benghazi thing for some days, about how much an advantage that gaffe by kevin mccarthy gives her. she needed some way to turn the page, and maybe these two issues will allow her to get her campaign to get on track being

prosecuting. mark: she was in fine form, clearly energized by these two issues. after last week's campus shooting in oregon, the white house and other democrats, including hillary clinton, are renewing their calls are stricter gun control laws. republicans, including the presidential candidates, have talked more about mental health and the inability of government or society to do much of anything to stop mass killing's. both sides think this is a political winner for them in 2016. which side is right? john: you know, it could be one of these strange questions where both are right. if you believe that the 2016 election is going to be a base election, and it's always some mixture of a contest for the center and a contest to write up the bases, but the bases in both parties are inflamed on different ways. republicans will try to capitalize on this to drive up enthusiasm. democrats, on their side.

both of them will get some benefit out of this even though their positions are at odds. mark: on environment and guns, the right has trumped in every election we have had him a midterm and presidential. maybe this will be the turning point on guns. democrats are all in. hillary clinton is all in on this even though bill clinton and al gore were burned for taking strong positions on new gun control. i don't get any sense from hillary clinton and joe biden, if he runs perhaps, but certainly from hillary clinton, that she is hesitating at all. she is full throated. john: there is no question that the nra, as powerful as it is, is less powerful than it was in the days of bill clinton. it's not powerful enough to prevent legislation from getting past, but the polling is so overwhelmingly favorable to some form of gun control. we've seen such a wave of hornacek violence in so many

-- wave of horrific violence in so many places. even people who previously for whom gun control was anathema, they've moved to this area where they are able to accept something. if you are looking for news not about donald trump, dan balls is your guy. he writes in "the washington post" that a melee hasbro cannot between three establishment candidates, the one-time front-runner jeb bush, his protege marco rubio, and ohio's john kasich. these three are refocusing their attacks on each other rather than wasting ammo on the donald. it bush is trashing rubio's limited experience. rubio is calling for a non-legacy candidate during kasich is saying his record is -- and kasich is saying that his record is better than both of theirs. who has the upper hand? mark: i think rubio does. he's picking up a lot of support from scott walker financial and grassroots. so far, no one has, i think, convince the electorate that

he's too young, too inexperienced to be president, but i would say that is going to be the real test. butjust kashich and bush, trump also is already doing it. they are going to come hard after rubio on that, knock him out for being too young. john: i agree with you. i think there's an additional reason why rubio has the hot hand. both bush and kasich are trying to run straightforward establishment campaigns in the traditional mould. they are not going to be playing in the anti-establishment lane or tea party lane. rubio, because of his roots, has a slightly broader potential base. he could appeal to establishment republicans and grassroots conservatives in a way that bush and kasich can't. maybe in the long run, his lack of experience and his youth and his comparisons with obama might cut him short, but in this moment, that broader base of appeal gives him something more to work with than the other two. mark: the other thing about rubio, his favorables are quite good.

he still has to find a state to win. bush can still win iowa. most people think he can. either kasich or bush could win here. i think rubio's challenge is, pick a state of the first four, and try to make it his dominant state. as much as momentum and delegates will matter, those early four states still matter a lot. the race for a new republican leadership team is now getting interesting. the speaker on the way out john boehner has postponed the elections for majority leader and with and other leadership posts. this thursday's nomination vote is only going to be for the speaker slot, which is expected to go to kevin mccarthy. what are the implications of and reasons for john boehner's decision? john: there is a procedural issue here where you can't vote for a leadership post that has not been vacated, so if you have them all on the same day, it means that there's an inability for a full shakeup of leadership.

conservatives have complained about that in the past. apparently, boehner is bowing to that demand. it looks to me kevin mccarthy is the odds on favorite. neither of his challengers seem to be in a capacity to win that race. i don't think in the end it's going to matter at the speaker's level but could change the outcome because of a change in the nature of the composition of the races below the speaker's office. mark: this thing is a huge mess. yeah, mccarthy is going to be the choice, but can he get 218 votes on the floor when that vote occurs? even if he does, i don't think john boehner is going to bail

him out by passing things you can increase in the debt ceiling, transportation, budget. if mccarthy gets to be speaker, his life is going to be a living nightmare as he tries to pass stuff that must pass before new year's eve. john: in the end, this is one of these procedural things that matters in the short-term, doesn't matter in the long term. i don't think anybody who ends up in republican leadership going forward, especially not kevin mccarthy, is going to have a fun time dealing with the same tension john boehner has had to deal with. if mccarthy can't get 218, paul ryan is the only one who can come to the rescue. otherwise, that is going to be a huge mess. even if he figures out a way to get to 218, i do not envy the job he faces. forget the gaffe he made. i don't think he's going to have an easy time solving the problems the country's going to confront. coming up, what is on the mind of iowa voters? hillary clinton is the talk of the town hall. her day and mine in new hampshire after this word from our sponsors. ♪

♪ john: we are joined by bloomberg politics pollster in chief and filtered to go over the iowa horserace. it's great to see you. it's a lovely day. there is a new wall street journal/marist poll. let's talk about that poll, starting with the republican side, what is jumping out at you? anne: at the top of the ticket, it's pretty much the same people. they are all just down a little bit. donald trump is still the leader, but he's down five points. ben carson is still in second place, but he is down a few points. what i found interesting was the rise of the middle of the pack. you have a modest increase among three people, ted cruz, rubio, and bobby jindal.

maybe you remember the last time -- [laughter] i said bobby jindal was the secret winner, and now he's up in the middle. he was at the pregame debate the last time, and now he's up there. john: you were saying for a wire on the basis of the selzer score that marco rubio had room to grow. j. ann: i think he's getting the press support that is bolstering those numbers. john: do you think in trump's case -- the perennial question about trump is the ceiling.

he has been losing out to two. he is still ahead, but he's losing altitude steadily. does that help us know in retrospect what his ceiling is? j. ann: i don't think we know the floor or the ceiling. it is starting to shake itself out. he took up so much of the space. he took up 30% out of a large field of what was 17 people. of course, he's going to get less. john: he is at what number right now? j. ann: he is first. john: what percentage? j. ann: he is at 28%. i'm sorry, he is at 21%. john: he basically topped out around 30%. have you ever seen a candidate dropped 10 points in this cycle, then climbing up and regaining? j. ann: i've seen so many cycles, john. john: it's unusual. j. ann: it is unusual, but if you are the leader, you can drop points and come back. john: let's ask you about the democratic side of the same poll. put the leaderboard up. tell us what you learned. j. ann: the race between hiller clinton and bernie sanders is virtually unchanged.

she was ahead 11 points last time they did this poll. she's up 11 points now. what is different is if you add biden into the race, and he's taking 14 points, it looks like, from hillary clinton, and bernie sanders loses about 8% to him. that is what biden does. she still leads, but biden makes it a closer nest. john: her lead at 11% has been consistent. she has been ahead of bernie here, as opposed to new hampshire. 11% is not a safe gap for her, right? j. ann: the one other thing i looked inside to the cross tabs of what they had -- one of the things that is interesting is that there is a higher "not sure" among women. these are people who say they are likely to caucus. they are 21%, either uncommitted or unsure. that is a really high number.

it's 7% among men. john: the other thing that is interesting, i think we now know on the basis of the cumulative polling, that it is the case that biden will, in most instances, draw more from the establishment. because sanders voters are voting for sanders, he seems like he hurts her more. it matters to hillary clinton, the decision as to whether he gets in this race or not. j. ann: it does. john: let me ask you a third thing. this same poll did some hypothetical general election matchups. i try to discount to those this far out, but i know you found a couple things interesting. j. ann: it's almost rock, paper, scissors. in a general election matchup, these are both republicans and democrats, donald trump beats hillary clinton, but bernie sanders beats donald trump. rock, paper, scissors, you would think that is a signal that bernie sanders, who we thought was the kind of candidate who would have a harder time in a general election, he might not have a hard time everybody has said.

john: what explains that? this is a traditionally purple state. it has been more democratic in presidential years. it is not a deep blue state. what explains that, why sanders would be better in this electric against trump -- collect or it against -- electorate against trump? j. ann: he may be a stronger cohesive for the democrats than hillary clinton is. they are more coming together against trump. with hillary clinton, i think there is misgiving. john: it is always an extraordinary pleasure to be with you, especially in iowa. when we come back, mark's magical mystery tour with hillary clinton in new hampshire, after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ mark: i spent the day in new hampshire covering hillary clinton. i haven't been out reporting on clinton in a very long time. what is striking is how much she is like a normal candidate these days, and also how much she's not. and normal candidate flips pancakes. >> yes, i have. mark: not so normal, a squadron of secret service agents watches her every move. this is normal, wonking out at a policy gathering. >> it's a snapshot study of people who are better stimulated, talked to, all of that, and then they've heard 30 million more words than a kid from a less advantage background. mark: clinton's director says her candidate is, in fact, pretty normal. >> the elements are all there, a lot of contact with voters, a lot of one-on-one time,

big town halls, answering questions. a lot of interviews, as well, a lot of local and national. mark: here is another typical thing a candidate does, huddling with her staff to make sure her gun message got on the news. what is the most obvious way to do that? mention a certain republican candidate. >> mr. trump was asked about it, and he said, things like that happen in the world, and governor bush said, yeah, stuff happens. no. that's an admission of defeat and surrender to a problem that is killing 33,000 americans. mark: but the size of her entourage and the controlled formality of clinton's interactions with voters makes her seem less like a challenger and more like a defending champ. >> the secret service protection she has, cautious staff, she's not answering reporter questions. she is sticking on message. that's really different from the

way a lot of other candidates work. mark: here is another example of how clinton is an unusual candidate. a reporter she has known for nearly a quarter century, standing inches away from her, asks her questions, and she pretends she can't hear him. what is your message to the nra, secretary clinton? can i ask you a question about guns, secretary clinton? what is your message to the nra? like in normal candidate, clinton will take questions from a new hampshire voter on another rope line, even if it's the same question the reporter asked. >> what is your message to the nra? >> i just did a town hall about that, and my message is not to them or for them. my message is to the american people. it is time we stood up together for common sense gun safety measures to end the epidemic of gun violence. that is going to be an issue that i emphasize in the campaign and that i'm going to work as hard as i can to get something

done in washington, but it has to come from the bottom up. mark: that voter asked to the exact same question as the reporter. coincidence? i don't think so. i tried to ask hillary clinton what her message was to the nra. she wouldn't answer me. i went to the middle lady. what did you do? > i asked her the question. mark: how did it work out? >> she interacted with me, and she gave me an answer i value. mark: i won. you won. hillary clinton won. in my entire career, i've never done that, asking a voter to ask my question, but i think with hillary clinton, it may become my common practice. i'm wondering if you think watching the piece and watching her lately whether you think she's getting better as a candidate. john: you know, i think she looks pretty good today, and you've got to attribute some of it to the fact that she is

suddenly having this opportunity we talked about earlier to go on offense and not be constantly on defense. i don't know. i would like to see a consistent performance increase, better performance on her part before one renders judgment. i've seen her give a couple really good speeches this year. she looked better in that we setting than she has for a while, but she still seems like she is not firing on every cylinder. i want to see a little more. what is your thought about that? mark: i thought she was very strong today. when she gets into a problem, everybody focuses on the negative, but the fact is, if you compare her in terms of sunday show appearances, tough interviews, yes, voter situations are more controlled, but the fact is, she is a pro. she handles a lot of these situations on the ground in iowa and new hampshire as well as anybody in the race. the press often forgets that or ignores it. john: let me ask you this question.

when i was with her, we were out here for the state fair. i noticed the difficulties of her navigating the state fair. this keys back into her point -- your point about her being an unusual candidate. most of that, the entourage, the secret service, they are all to her detriment. you think there is any way her being unusual does play to her benefit, as well? mark: it makes her seem presidential, more regal. her agents are very skilled. they are protecting her, but they are giving her enough room. my hats off to them. it's to her benefit to it keeps her away from looking too regal. we will be right back, so don't go anywhere. ♪

♪ john: mark, the secret word is "go." tomorrow morning, go wake up

early, and go watch bloomberg's new morning show, "bloomberg go." mark: speaking of, tomorrow we have congressman nick mulvaney here to talk about the leadership fight. all that and all the day's political news right here from new hampshire and iowa. we say sayonara. the only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. i just had a horrible nightmare. my company's entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. but that would never happen. comcast business monitors my company's network 24 hours a day and calls and e-mails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. so i can rest easy.

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