today we have seen the israeli trips start an operation in rafah. the pressure is really huge on hamas to accept this. with me tonight on the panel is asha castlebury—hernandez — us national security and foreign policy expert — and justin crump — military analyst and ceo of sibylline. first, the latest headlines. hamas says it has accepted a proposalfor a ceasefire in gaza, put forward by qatari and egyptian mediators. it's not yet known exactly what's been agreed to, or whether israel will give backing to the plan, but it says a delegation will be sent to negotiate. these are the pictures from gaza where residents are receiving the news of a possible ceasefire

deal, with many seen celebrating. it comes as attacks begin in rafah, where israel earlier urged 100,000 palestinians to evacuate ahead of a "limited" military operation. thejudge presiding over donald trump's hush money trial has threatened the former president with jail if he continues to violate a gag order. the judge said the $1,000 fines he has imposed so far don't seem to be a deterrent, and added that jail time would be a last resort and one that he was trying to avoid at all costs. scotland has a new leader for the scottish national party. john swinney has been confirmed in the role, after no challengers emerged, and he'll also now become scotland's first minister. he succeeds the outgoing first minister, humza yousaf, who resigned after the collapse of his coalition government. what a see—saw of emotions it has been in gaza today.

first came the news that israel is planning an expanded assault on rafah, then the news tonight that a ceasefire was agreed but then quickly rejected injerusalem. the day had begun with orders for that evacuation. the idf dropped thousands of leaflets over rafah informing the palestianians the idf would soon be expanding its operation against terrorist operations in the eastern parts of the town. around 100,000 people were warned they would need to relocate to al mawasi an expanded safe zone, as they described it, east of khan younis. that set off a wave of panic and a flurry of phone calls at the white house where president biden was busy working the phones to try and revive a ceasefire agreement that hamas had rejected over the weekend. at the white house for lunch was his invted guest king abdullah ofjordan. several hours later came news from the political wing of hamas that the ceasefire had now been

revived and accepted. outside the al aqsa hospital, there were sponteneous celebrations, childrenjumping up and down, in some hope they would be spared another round of fighting. but tonight, prime minister netanyahu says that although hamas had accepted the proposal, it is still far from meeting israel's demands. they will send a working delegation to continue negotiations, but at the same time they will continue their operation in rafah, in southern gaza. and tonight there are reports of air strikes being carried out there. here's the response of the state department spokesman matthew miller. i can confirm that hamas has issued a response, we are reviewing the response now and discussing it with our partners in the region. as you know, our director is in the region working on this in real time, we will be discussing this response with our partners over the coming hours. we continue to believe that a hostage deal is in the best

interests of the israeli people, it is in the best interests of the palestinian people, it would bring an immediate ceasefire and allow increased movement of humanitarian assistance, so we will continue to work to try to reach one. prime minister netanyahu spoke to joe biden earlier today for around half an hour. they said that after that conversation, they had informed the prime minister that reaching agreement is absolutely the best outcome, and they are not going to stop working towards that. so how do they deal with the news coming out ofjerusalem tonight that they will not accept it? of jerusalem tonight that they will not accept it?— not accept it? thank you for the question- _ not accept it? thank you for the question- it _ not accept it? thank you for the question. it is _ not accept it? thank you for the question. it is imperative - not accept it? thank you for the question. it is imperative that i not accept it? thank you for the i question. it is imperative that they reach an agreement in the present biden continues to demonstrate leadership in this effort, it is a very difficult one. and also it is

very difficult one. and also it is very important, especially when it comes to the information flow of what is going on, that there is some sort of consensus, a believable consensus, because there is a couple of, you know, multiple reports indicating that on the other side, the israelis did not agree to the qatari egyptian agreement, and that they do not necessarily see all of they do not necessarily see all of the content of it, so... but they do not necessarily see all of the content of it, so. . ._ they do not necessarily see all of the content of it, so... but how is that possible _ the content of it, so... but how is that possible if _ the content of it, so... but how is that possible if bill _ the content of it, so... but how is that possible if bill burns - the content of it, so... but how is that possible if bill burns had - the content of it, so... but how is. that possible if bill burns had been there throughout? apparently, from our reporting, he was in qatar today, he has been guiding this process through, so how is it that the israelis feel like they are somehow out of the loop? it the israelis feel like they are somehow out of the loop? it must be somehow out of the loop? it must be some sort of— somehow out of the loop? it must be some sort of fragmentation - somehow out of the loop? it must be some sort of fragmentation within . some sort of fragmentation within the israeli leadership in terms of who saw what, but moving forward, the entire israeli leadership needs to see the agreement, needs to understand deeply in terms of the context especially when it comes to

humanitarian support, hostage affairs, as faras humanitarian support, hostage affairs, as far as where we are, the state of the conflict, and reach a ceasefire as soon as possible. we were saying just a short time ago, just in, that puts the ball firmly in the israelis' court, but there is now an indication here for the white house, because they are bringing all the various parties together. king abdullah has been at the white house today, joe biden has been on the phone speaking to the egyptians, they have a deal with the saudis to normalise relations of they can get a longer term ceasefire in place, so what do they do to try to encourage the israelis to accept it? it what do they do to try to encourage the israelis to accept it?— the israelis to accept it? it has been an extraordinary, - the israelis to accept it? it has - been an extraordinary, extraordinary day. been an extraordinary, extraordinary day~ the _ been an extraordinary, extraordinary day. the narrative from this morning. _ day. the narrative from this morning, the warning that after months. — morning, the warning that after months, the discussion about going into rafah, — months, the discussion about going into rafah, that the is reallys were looking _ into rafah, that the is reallys were looking set to do so, they urged to move _ looking set to do so, they urged to move to _ looking set to do so, they urged to move to safe zones, and then the

last—minute outright, 30 minutes after_ last—minute outright, 30 minutes after that— last—minute outright, 30 minutes after that you have three israeli brigades — after that you have three israeli brigades moving into southern and eastern _ brigades moving into southern and eastern rafah. so confused situation for anyone _ eastern rafah. so confused situation for anyone watching it, especially for anyone watching it, especially for diplomats who have been on these very different trains, and i think it shows — very different trains, and i think it shows really the complexity of the situation where, for israel, of course, _ the situation where, for israel, of course, there's a pleasure to get the hostages home, but there is the subject— the hostages home, but there is the subject of— the hostages home, but there is the subject of to destroy hamas, that has been — subject of to destroy hamas, that has been stated by the israeli leadership, and that a large fraction _ leadership, and that a large fraction of israeli society backs. so it— fraction of israeli society backs. so it is— fraction of israeli society backs. so it is very hard to see any sort of ceasefire _ so it is very hard to see any sort of ceasefire sticking when the ultimate _ of ceasefire sticking when the ultimate israeli aim, at least again for a _ ultimate israeli aim, at least again for a big _ ultimate israeli aim, at least again for a big section of the government, is to eliminate hamas, and to do that _ is to eliminate hamas, and to do that... .,, ., is to eliminate hamas, and to do that... ., . , is to eliminate hamas, and to do that... ., . ., that... those two ob'ectives are not compatible. _ that... those two ob'ectives are not compatible. — that... those two objectives are not compatible, are they, _ that... those two objectives are not compatible, are they, just - that... those two objectives are not compatible, are they, just in? - that... those two objectives are not compatible, are they, just in? onel compatible, are they, just in? one would cousin that hostages are in rafah, and a free fighting starts again and there's some very intense bombing going on and has been

throughout the day, then not only are the hostages at risk, but the ceasefire disappears, doesn't it? and all the terms attached to it? and all the terms attached to it? and of course hamas' last—minute arguably— and of course hamas' last—minute arguably acceptance of a proposal that was — arguably acceptance of a proposal that was not quite acceptable to the israetis _ that was not quite acceptable to the israelis could be a little bit of theatre — israelis could be a little bit of theatre in terms of putting the ball back in— theatre in terms of putting the ball back in the — theatre in terms of putting the ball back in the israelis' court, making this operation in rafah seen as odious — this operation in rafah seen as odious and if view of those who condemn— odious and if view of those who condemn israel, and of course the humanitarian issues are terrible in that region. — humanitarian issues are terrible in that region, so absolutely right, the israelis have a problem with the objective _ the israelis have a problem with the objective they have laid out, the means— objective they have laid out, the means to — objective they have laid out, the means to achieve them, and the challenges around that. and i figured — challenges around that. and i figured as unsurprising in that situation is hard to find a real route — situation is hard to find a real route to — situation is hard to find a real route to a _ situation is hard to find a real route to a point where they can say that they _ route to a point where they can say that they achieved a victory. anything _ that they achieved a victory. anything short of that is a victory for hamas — anything short of that is a victory for hamas. the hostages are caught out on _ for hamas. the hostages are caught out on that, — for hamas. the hostages are caught out on that, as you point out, the hostages — out on that, as you point out, the hostages have been at risk for the

last six— hostages have been at risk for the last six or— hostages have been at risk for the last six or seven months. israel will obviously be seeking to recover the hostages that can, in rafah it is certain— the hostages that can, in rafah it is certain that a number i held there. — is certain that a number i held there, although sadly we know that a number— there, although sadly we know that a number are _ there, although sadly we know that a number are probably dead at that point, _ number are probably dead at that point, so — number are probably dead at that point, so for the number are probably dead at that point, so forthe nation, important to do— point, so forthe nation, important to do everything they can to get everyone — to do everything they can to get everyone back, but not at all costs, and i_ everyone back, but not at all costs, and i think— everyone back, but not at all costs, and i think that is the division in israeti _ and i think that is the division in israeli society and to extend israeti — israeli society and to extend israeli leadership. they are airing on the _ israeli leadership. they are airing on the hard — israeli leadership. they are airing on the hard side, and i think they will continue to do so.— will continue to do so. asha, the biden administration _ will continue to do so. asha, the biden administration has - will continue to do so. asha, the biden administration has said i will continue to do so. asha, the biden administration has said in | will continue to do so. asha, the i biden administration has said in the last hour so that they are highly concerned about people in the rafah if this israeli operation were to go ahead. they put a hold on a shipment to israel last week, according to reports. if so, that is the first time have done that since the attacks on the 7th of october. is that the only leverage of the administration has here? it is a critical leverage, _

administration has here? it is a critical leverage, and _ administration has here? it is a critical leverage, and you i administration has here? it is a critical leverage, and you lookl administration has here? it is a. critical leverage, and you look at the situation in terms of targeting the situation in terms of targeting the area where there are civilians everywhere and then there are high casualties rates. that has been an out for quite some time, since the 7th of october, which has put respot a disadvantage when it comes to the information flow about the conflict, put them at a huge disadvantage as far as the international community, the perception of it, a lot of protesting going on, 50 different universities and campuses there are concerns about how the israelis are conducting their military operations, so there's a lot of pressure in terms of looking at the security assistance and matching that with which unit in the idf is actually miss utilising these security, it is creating catastrophic humanitarian conditions within gaza, so it is critical

leverage when it comes to negotiations or working with the idf, because they cannot continue to go in this direction. moving forward with regards to the rafah invasion, excuse me, operation, that is critical to note because of the fact that the behaviour of the conditions prior to by the unfortunate humanitarian conditions, the united states cannot afford to continue to play that game, especially during the political season.— play that game, especially during the political season. yes, at some oint ou the political season. yes, at some point you would — the political season. yes, at some point you would imagine - the political season. yes, at some point you would imagine they i the political season. yes, at some point you would imagine they will| point you would imagine they will have to force the issue if they want this ceasefire to go, to be accepted. just then, just finally, can i get you to speak about the way this war is covered, the news of the weekend is that aljazeera has been raided in israel and it has been bad and from broadcasting within israel —— banned from broadcasting. they obviously have more eyes and ears on the ground within gaza, and some of that report and was getting to

palestinians who live in israel, israeli palestinians, who are about 20% of the population. i wonder what you make of the decision to shut it down. i you make of the decision to shut it down. ~ , ., ~ .~ ., down. i think israel saw al jazeera as a particular _ down. i think israel saw al jazeera as a particular thorn, _ down. i think israel saw al jazeera as a particular thorn, and - down. i think israel saw aljazeera as a particular thorn, and i - down. i think israel saw al jazeera as a particular thorn, and i think l as a particular thorn, and i think the connection to qatar something that also— the connection to qatar something that also israelis were noting, and ithink— that also israelis were noting, and i think at— that also israelis were noting, and i think at our's role in hosting the leadership— i think at our's role in hosting the leadership of her —— hamas has led to a degree — leadership of her —— hamas has led to a degree of extra suspicion of the channel. and suddenly it's coverage — the channel. and suddenly it's coverage has been focused on the coverage — coverage has been focused on the coverage to palestinians, i am not sure it _ coverage to palestinians, i am not sure it has — coverage to palestinians, i am not sure it has done much more than anyone _ sure it has done much more than anyone else _ sure it has done much more than anyone else has in that regard, in this very— anyone else has in that regard, in this very convoluted environment, i think— this very convoluted environment, i think more — this very convoluted environment, i think more than anything we have previously— think more than anything we have previously seen, but of course it is not a _

previously seen, but of course it is not a good — previously seen, but of course it is not a good look for a beacon of democracy— not a good look for a beacon of democracy in the middle east to be shutting _ democracy in the middle east to be shutting down media, i don't think it is something israel did lightly, but again— it is something israel did lightly, but again it is not a good look, but really— but again it is not a good look, but really it— but again it is not a good look, but really it is— but again it is not a good look, but really it is not surprising. we but again it is not a good look, but really it is not surprising.— really it is not surprising. we were without their _ really it is not surprising. we were without their commentary - really it is not surprising. we were without their commentary will i without their commentary will continue to bring you any lines from the middle east, and we continue to watch the situation in gaza tonight what i have been a number of military strikes. around the world and across the uk, you are watching bbc news. scotland has a new leader for the scottish national party. john swinney has been confirmed in the role, after no challengers emerged. he'll also now become scotland's first minister. he succeeds the outgoing first minister, humza yousaf, who resigned after the collapse of his coalition government. the boss of eurotunnel has insisted there will not be long queues of cars at its terminals when a new eu travel system starts in october. brits heading to and from europe

will need to register fingerprints and a photo at the border, which has prompted warnings of delays. military celebrations have taken place in london and around the uk to mark the first anniversary of the coronation of king charles and queen camilla. gun salutes were heard across london, with 41 volleys fired at noon by the king's troop royal horse artillery, from green park. the king recently returned to public engagements after being diagnosed with cancer. six months today, we will know — at least we hope we will know — who the next president of the united states will be. roughly 244 million americans will be eligible to cast a ballot, yet for 99.5% of them, their vote probably won't matter. this will be decided in just six swing states — arizona, georgia, michigan, nevada,

pennsylvania, and wisconsin. we could perhaps add north carolina to that list. donald trump won it by less than 80,000 votes in 2020, but the other six states most certainly in the balance. president biden ahead in just one of them. as the news website axios reported today, from the private conversations they have had with both camps, "the democrats are a lot more worried about november than the republicans are. democrats say the race is winnable. republicans think they're winning." in spite of everthing is what's going on in new york. their candidate in court most days of the week, not on the campaign, and growing increasingly frustrated by it. this has never happened in this country— this has never happened in this country before, _ this has never happened in this country before, it _ this has never happened in this country before, it is _ this has never happened in this country before, it is a - this has never happened in this| country before, it is a ridiculous case: _ country before, it is a ridiculous case, i— country before, it is a ridiculous case, i did — country before, it is a ridiculous case, i did absolutely— country before, it is a ridiculous case, i did absolutely nothing . case, i did absolutely nothing wrong — case, i did absolutely nothing wrong they _ case, i did absolutely nothing wrong. they say _ case, i did absolutely nothing wrong. they say there - case, i did absolutely nothing wrong. they say there is i case, i did absolutely nothing wrong. they say there is no l case, i did absolutely nothing i wrong. they say there is no case here, _ wrong. they say there is no case here, and — wrong. they say there is no case here, and vet— wrong. they say there is no case here, and yet the _ wrong. they say there is no case

here, and yet the judge - wrong. they say there is no case here, and yet the judge has i wrong. they say there is no case i here, and yet the judge has gagged me, here, and yet the judge has gagged me. and _ here, and yet the judge has gagged me. and i'm — here, and yet the judge has gagged me. and i'm not— here, and yet the judge has gagged me, and i'm not allowed _ here, and yet the judge has gagged me, and i'm not allowed to- here, and yet the judge has gagged me, and i'm not allowed to talk- me, and i'm not allowed to talk about— me, and i'm not allowed to talk about it. — me, and i'm not allowed to talk about it. the _ me, and i'm not allowed to talk about it, the totally _ me, and i'm not allowed to talk about it, the totally conflicted, | about it, the totally conflicted, and i_ about it, the totally conflicted, and i am — about it, the totally conflicted, and i am not _ about it, the totally conflicted, and i am not supposed - about it, the totally conflicted, and i am not supposed to- about it, the totally conflicted, and i am not supposed to be i about it, the totally conflicted, i and i am not supposed to be talking about— and i am not supposed to be talking about it. _ and i am not supposed to be talking about it. but — and i am not supposed to be talking about it. but i — and i am not supposed to be talking about it, but i am _ and i am not supposed to be talking about it, but i am allowed _ and i am not supposed to be talking about it, but i am allowed to- and i am not supposed to be talking about it, but i am allowed to say- about it, but i am allowed to say that the — about it, but i am allowed to say that the judge _ about it, but i am allowed to say that the judge is _ about it, but i am allowed to say that the judge is a _ about it, but i am allowed to say that the judge is a conflict, i about it, but i am allowed to say that the judge is a conflict, he i that the judge is a conflict, he has taken _ that the judge is a conflict, he has taken away— that the judge is a conflict, he has taken away my— that the judge is a conflict, he has taken away my constitutional- that the judge is a conflict, he hasj taken away my constitutional right to speak — live now to new york — and our correspondent nada tawfik. two trump organisation employees at the time have today presented evidence, such as e—mails, invoices, ledger entries, that could really help the prosecution's case that donald trump falsified records to conceal election crimes connected to that hush money payment. 0ne conceal election crimes connected to that hush money payment. one said he met with the chief financial officer

in january of 2017, met with the chief financial officer injanuary of 2017, and he was told he needed to discuss how to reimburse michael cohen. he said it was presented with a bank statement which showed $130,000 wired to a person who was identified as stormy daniels' liar. but he said on cross—examination he was never told what the reimbursement was for, donald trump never directed him to do anything that he did do, but he noted that he never saw a legal retainer for michael cohen, and remember, the defence has said that all of these payments to michael cohen were legitimate legal expenses, not to cover up the hush money payment. bud expenses, not to cover up the hush money payment-— expenses, not to cover up the hush money payment. and the gag order, i think ou money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave — money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave a _ money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave a stern _ money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave a stern rebuke - money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave a stern rebuke to i money payment. and the gag order, i think you gave a stern rebuke to the l think you gave a stern rebuke to the former president today, just minutes after he had won best of the judge outside the courtroom. —— i think he gave. —— lamb blasted thejudge.

yes, the strongest warning we have yet heard from the judge. he said that sending him to jail was the last thing he wants to do, but it is hisjob to last thing he wants to do, but it is his job to protect the integrity of the criminaljustice system, essentially signalling the next morning would be donald trump being put injail. keep in mind this is the tenth time he has violated this 939 the tenth time he has violated this gag order, and was fined $1000, and this time it was to do with comments he made about the journey. the judge said that was a direct attack on the rule of law, it really raised the spectre of fear amongstjuror rule of law, it really raised the spectre of fear amongst juror two and their families, spectre of fear amongst juror two and theirfamilies, and even though this would have petitioned for the presidential election, emily is a former president, it would pose security challenges for the present, given he has the secret service telling him, that thejudge given he has the secret service telling him, that the judge was willing to go there if necessary. —— comments he made about the jury. let's crossover to charlottesville, and speak to larry sabato, director of the center for politics

at the university of virginia. we should know in six months for the next president will be. i we should know in six months for the next president will be.— next president will be. i think we will see it go _ next president will be. i think we will see it go on _ next president will be. i think we will see it go on a _ next president will be. i think we will see it go on a bit _ next president will be. i think we will see it go on a bit longer, i next president will be. i think we will see it go on a bit longer, as. will see it go on a bit longer, as you mentioned earlier, just a handful— you mentioned earlier, just a handful of states will dictate the outcome, most of us could stay home and it— outcome, most of us could stay home and it would _ outcome, most of us could stay home and it would make no difference. i don't _ and it would make no difference. i don't know— and it would make no difference. i don't know what the parties or the campaigns— don't know what the parties or the campaigns are saying behind the scenes. — campaigns are saying behind the scenes, that they are doing well or poorly, _ scenes, that they are doing well or poorly, whether they are predicting optimism _ poorly, whether they are predicting optimism or pessimism, it is very close _ optimism or pessimism, it is very close in— optimism or pessimism, it is very close in the — optimism or pessimism, it is very close in the key states, even the polls _ close in the key states, even the polls that — close in the key states, even the polls that you mention, the polls that show — polls that you mention, the polls that show trump ahead slightly in many— that show trump ahead slightly in many of— that show trump ahead slightly in many of these states, the leader is well within— many of these states, the leader is well within the margin of error, so it is impossible to predict the

outcome _ it is impossible to predict the outcome of this particular court battle _ outcome of this particular court battle in — outcome of this particular court battle in manhattan, although it is the most — battle in manhattan, although it is the most important, in my view, of the most important, in my view, of the many— the most important, in my view, of the many legal challenges that donald — the many legal challenges that donald trump has, those advantages we might— donald trump has, those advantages we might not get into court anywhere else before _ we might not get into court anywhere else before november. but if we might not get into court anywhere else before november.— we might not get into court anywhere else before november. but if he were “ailed, else before november. but if he were jailed. what — else before november. but if he were jailed, what difference _ else before november. but if he were jailed, what difference would - else before november. but if he were jailed, what difference would that i jailed, what difference would that make? clearly the judge jailed, what difference would that make? clearly thejudge has it as jailed, what difference would that make? clearly the judge has it as an option, but i suppose that is the question, does donald trump think maybe a night injail might put a shotin maybe a night injail might put a shot in the arm of his maybe a night in jail might put a shot in the arm of his campaign? maybe a night injail might put a shot in the arm of his campaign? you 'ust not shot in the arm of his campaign? you just got out. — shot in the arm of his campaign? you just got out, and most observers do not understand donald trump wants to id not understand donald trump wants to -o to not understand donald trump wants to go to jail— not understand donald trump wants to go to jail for— not understand donald trump wants to go to jail for a night or two or three — go to jail for a night or two or three he _ go to jail for a night or two or three. he loves to play the martyr, he plays— three. he loves to play the martyr, he plays it — three. he loves to play the martyr, he plays it very well, his cult loves — he plays it very well, his cult loves it _ he plays it very well, his cult loves it. they will give more money, this is— loves it. they will give more money, this is all— loves it. they will give more money, this is all about fundraising, and whether— this is all about fundraising, and whether he is convicted or not in this particular case, i don't think

it is going — this particular case, i don't think it is going to make that much difference, though i would add i think— difference, though i would add i think it — difference, though i would add i think it is — difference, though i would add i think it is important to realise that— think it is important to realise that this — think it is important to realise that this is so close in so many states— that this is so close in so many states that _ that this is so close in so many states that if trump even loses one to 2% _ states that if trump even loses one to 2% of _ states that if trump even loses one to 2% of his— states that if trump even loses one to 2% of his current supporters, he has lost _ to 2% of his current supporters, he has lost i— to 296 of his current supporters, he has lost. ., ., , ., has lost. i have read in some articles that _ has lost. i have read in some articles that it _ has lost. i have read in some articles that it could - has lost. i have read in some articles that it could come i has lost. i have read in some i articles that it could come down to just flipping it in that is of course to presume, that is a very big assumption, that everybody votes the same way they did in 2020. i think there are still some independent swing voters out there, but the point is probably a good one, but this will come down to a very small group of people in the overall electorate, and they are going to spend billions on it. that going to spend billions on it. at least 10 billion, it might go to 20 billion, _ least 10 billion, it might go to 20 billion, that isjust for presidential race, then you have all the other— presidential race, then you have all the other elections. we have a lot of money— the other elections. we have a lot of money to burn. i think you have to rememberthat, even of money to burn. i think you have to remember that, even though it is close, _ to remember that, even though it is close. and _ to remember that, even though it is close, and even though in the end one of— close, and even though in the end

one of them will win the popular vote, _ one of them will win the popular vote, i_ one of them will win the popular vote, i think it will be joe biden. trump _ vote, i think it will be joe biden. trump is — vote, i think it will be joe biden. trump is not a currently popular vote _ trump is not a currently popular vote even — trump is not a currently popular vote. even last time with joe trump is not a currently popular vote. even last time withjoe biden winning _ vote. even last time withjoe biden winning by— vote. even last time withjoe biden winning by over 7 million popular votes. _ winning by over 7 million popular votes. he — winning by over 7 million popular votes, he actually won by 43,000 votes _ votes, he actually won by 43,000 votes distributed in the key swing states _ votes distributed in the key swing states. they are small estates for the most — states. they are small estates for the most part, and it doesn't take many— the most part, and it doesn't take many votes — the most part, and it doesn't take many votes to switch them, so it in 1000. _ many votes to switch them, so it in 1000, you — many votes to switch them, so it in 1000, you said, i have had different estimates, — 1000, you said, i have had different estimates, 100,000, 30,000, i don't know how— estimates, 100,000, 30,000, i don't know how many authors, and neither do the _ know how many authors, and neither do the people projecting, but it will not — do the people projecting, but it will not be many. —— 81,000, you said _ will not be many. —— 81,000, you said it— will not be many. -- 81,000, you said. , ., , ,, will not be many. -- 81,000, you said. , ., , _ , said. it will be a busy six months and we will _ said. it will be a busy six months and we will talk _ said. it will be a busy six months and we will talk to _ said. it will be a busy six months and we will talk to you _ said. it will be a busy six months and we will talk to you again i said. it will be a busy six months i and we will talk to you again during that period. thank you forjoining us tonight. you send me an e—mail a few weeks ago, justin, you said in the global risk business it is a very busy time, all your clients want to know that the cascade of events towards wider conflict, and it seems to many of them that the us election is at the hinge of it all.

yeah, very much so. i think all the issues _ yeah, very much so. i think all the issues you're — yeah, very much so. i think all the issues you're talking about, ukraine, _ issues you're talking about, ukraine, israeland palestine, ukraine, israel and palestine, economies, ukraine, israeland palestine, economies, and of course taiwan in the background, a lot of people's mines _ the background, a lot of people's mines and — the background, a lot of people's mines and future relations with china, — mines and future relations with china, it — mines and future relations with china, it will come to this pivotal moment— china, it will come to this pivotal moment in— china, it will come to this pivotal moment in november, and i feel much better— moment in november, and i feel much better about _ moment in november, and i feel much better about those predictions when we hear— better about those predictions when we hear a _ better about those predictions when we hear a professor of politics so we hear a professor of politics so we will _ we hear a professor of politics so we will not — we hear a professor of politics so we will not know until it happens, because _ we will not know until it happens, because it — we will not know until it happens, because it gets me off the hook for the next _ because it gets me off the hook for the next six — because it gets me off the hook for the next six months. but it is an incredible — the next six months. but it is an incredible environment we are in, we have got— incredible environment we are in, we have got all— incredible environment we are in, we have got all this presidential candidate running —— of the oldest presidential candidate running against — presidential candidate running against the second oldest, the people — against the second oldest, the people that the american people have seen the _ people that the american people have seen the most for the last eight years. _ seen the most for the last eight years. had _ seen the most for the last eight years, had a lot of time to think about, — years, had a lot of time to think about, and _ years, had a lot of time to think about, and an extraordinary global landscape, — about, and an extraordinary global landscape, which i think isjoe biden's— landscape, which i think isjoe biden's problem. he is a steady candidate — biden's problem. he is a steady candidate but the environment is changing —

candidate but the environment is changing around him, and trump is the wild— changing around him, and trump is the wild card. so the person can cost _ the wild card. so the person can cost in _ the wild card. so the person can cost in the — the wild card. so the person can cost in the election the most is himself — cost in the election the most is himself it— cost in the election the most is himself. ., ., himself. it will get a lot wilder if it aoes to himself. it will get a lot wilder if it goes to jail — himself. it will get a lot wilder if it goes to jail should _ himself. it will get a lot wilder if it goes to jail should he - himself. it will get a lot wilder if it goes to jail should he goes i himself. it will get a lot wilder if it goes to jail should he goes to | it goes to jail should he goes to jail. quickly to istanbul, our reporter is there keeping tabs on what is being said and gaza tonight about the ceasefire. what are you picking up, and what does the problem seem to be at the moment with the agreement? in problem seem to be at the moment with the agreement?— with the agreement? in rafah toniuht, with the agreement? in rafah tonight. a _ with the agreement? in rafah tonight, a sense _ with the agreement? in rafah tonight, a sense of _ with the agreement? in rafah tonight, a sense ofjoy - with the agreement? in rafah tonight, a sense ofjoy and i with the agreement? in rafah tonight, a sense ofjoy and a i with the agreement? in rafah i tonight, a sense ofjoy and a sense of fear and other places, strikes have intensified in the eastern part of the city. a minimal of the city, people are celebrating the news coming from doe tonight that hamas have accepted the ceasefire proposal

put in place by the qataris, and they said they have been studying they said they have been studying the document, they have told them that they will accept the document, which will include some sort of ending to the war. i have been done to a senior official who said there is no award saying that israel is committed to ending the war, but there is one line in the deal that says truce after truce, 42 days after 42 days that led to a sustainable longer period of calm, thatis sustainable longer period of calm, that is what that... so sustainable longer period of calm, that is what that. . ._ that is what that... so they think it is worth _ that is what that... so they think it is worth a _ that is what that... so they think it is worth a punt, _ that is what that... so they think it is worth a punt, do _ that is what that... so they think it is worth a punt, do they? i it is worth a punt, do they? they think if they have got these three

terms they will agree to something else, and through because of the day, once those leaflets were dropped, saying here comes the opposition in rafah, the thinking changed within hamas circles? i think so, i think hamas' quick response today was part of the israeli plan to launch a big ground operation in rafah, which already started this morning. we have seen people leaving for the western part of the city, in the ground there is huge pressure and also diplomatic pressure and the egyptian which are plainly the media to a very long time, and hamas said,

now the ball is in the hand of the israelis to decide whether they want to accept the deal or not.— to accept the deal or not. thank you ve much to accept the deal or not. thank you very much for— to accept the deal or not. thank you very much for that. _ to accept the deal or not. thank you very much for that. still— to accept the deal or not. thank you very much for that. still some i very much for that. still some confusion tonight is to where things will go with that ceasefire, but plenty of activity in and around rafah. stay with us. temperatures happen into the low 20s celsius, some shown, but also some downpours and localised flooding. spells of sunshine but some hefty downpours, all driven by this swell of low pressure, also a lot of cloud in the north of the uk, in between a swathe of sunshine, but that slice of sunshine filling in with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. so by the end of the afternoon, part

of south—east england and east anglia are still seeing some outbreaks of rain, perhaps with some flashes of lightning. a mix of sunny spells, for one warmer sunshine, 20 celsius, but some hefty showers and thunderstorms. northern ireland mostly dry, but often rather cloudy, some showers and storms across central and southern parts of scotland, mainly dry and northern scotland, mainly dry and northern scotland but rather cloudy. through this evening and tonight, most of the showers will fade. we will keep a fair amount the showers will fade. we will keep a fairamount of the showers will fade. we will keep a fair amount of cloud, and where we see some clear breaks, across parts of the midlands, wales, southern england, some mist and fog patches developing at least for a time. temperatures generally between seven and 10 celsius, so not particularly cold as we start tomorrow morning. a lot of cloud around, across in wales some spells of sunshine, and while there will still be some showers, they should not be as many as we have today, it should not be as heavy either. northern ireland often rather cloudy, particularly by the afternoon, lots of bad for scotland

as well, still with one or two showers, temperatures are starting to lift particularly down towards the south, 20 celsius. a frontal system moving in here, further south and east some spells of sunshine, and east some spells of sunshine, and some warmth. 19 celsius, 21 in london, a sign of things to come. towards the end of the week, still some frontal systems, some rain at times, particularly across scotland, but for many, high pressure becoming increasingly dominant, and with some relatively warm air in place, temperatures will start to climb. highs in the south of 23 or 24 celsius possible, and it looks like the mostly fine and warm weather will last at least until the start of next weekend.