israel's war cabinet vows to "exact a price" from iran after its first ever direct strike against israel, despite pleas from all the country's western allies for de—escalation. how critical a moment is this in an already dangerously chaotic world 7 there's also huge jeopardy for iran. could israel's goal be to destroy its nuclear ambitons? to destroy its nuclear ambitions? mark will be analysing the ways this confrontation could play out.

will iran's neighbours — all suffering the economic fallout of the conflict — bring iran back into line? ben analyses the possible impact on the global oil market. so, who can exert a hold on the two protagonists? our guests are rob macaire, the us ambassador to iran until 2021, the formerjordanian diplomat merissa khurma, and general david petraeus, the former director of the cia. also tonight, it looks likely that parliament will, this week, finally give the green light for migrant flights to rwanda, but is it a long bumpy runway to take off? we'll speak live to a senior tory mp in parliament's central lobby. and donald trump becomes the first former us president to stand trial in a criminal case. what does it mean for his chances of returning to the white house? good evening. there was no stealth about iran's attack — it was well flagged, and in the event, the 300 odd drones were easily rebuffed mainly by israel's iron dome, but with some help from the us,

uk, france, and jordan. but was the fact of the attack — the first assault on israel by another country in 33 years — what has spurred israeli war cabinet to promise iran would pay a price, seemingly ignoring calls by israel's allies for restraint? i'm joined by mark. and, mark, israel says it will respond. what should we expect? well, they have got a variety of options. they have said they will respond, but of course you can do that in many ways. right the way from something rather token through to what one israeli reporter called making all the china, in other words some huge attack perhaps on iranian nuclear facilities that really would escalate things considerably. there are a whole lot of reasons why that higher end type of retaliation is unlikely in the near future. so, higher end type of retaliation is unlikely in the nearfuture. so, the question is, what could they do is lower down the scale of

probabilities and what is the thinking from the americans? there was a signalfrom thinking from the americans? there was a signal from the white house not long ago that it will make its own decisions as to how and when it retaliates. also some reporting suggesting that a certain level of retaliation is expected and accepted by the americans. so, what sort of thing it would be, some type of military targeting in iran? we really don't know, but we may see in the coming hours. as far as israel is concerned, the question is how to retaliate. the cabinet apparently divided on that issue. some members say they will do it at a time and place of their choosing, but there is a big effort going on from western allies to moderate israel's response to the iranian attack. translation: ~ translation: we condemned it, we intervened, translation: we condemned it, we intervened. and _ translation: we condemned it, we intervened, and today _ translation: we condemned it, we intervened, and today we _ translation: we condemned it, we intervened, and today we are - translation: we condemned it, we intervened, and today we are doing l intervened, and today we are doing everything we can to avoid problems.

that is to say escalation, and to convince israel not to respond by escalation. then quickly to isolate iran, convince the country is in that region that iran is a danger and enhance the sanctions. essen that region that iran is a danger and enhance the sanctions. even as the battle was _ and enhance the sanctions. even as the battle was going _ and enhance the sanctions. even as the battle was going on _ and enhance the sanctions. even as the battle was going on to - and enhance the sanctions. even as the battle was going on to shoot. the battle was going on to shoot down incoming drones on saturday night, iran's un mission said retaliation for israel's assassination of senior iranian officers at the start of this month was over. but it is not that simple. iranians like to think that this particular moment is closed, if you want to look at the specifics of the last four, five weeks, the destruction of the consulate, but clearly it is just an armistice, if you want to look at it that way. what we have is a much longer antagonism between the israelis and iranians. i can't see it, really, as down in any permanent sense. find down in any permanent sense. and indeed israel _ down in any permanent sense. and indeed israel insists it will take

some retaliatory action. translation: $5 some retaliatory action. tuna/mom- some retaliatory action. translation: �* , ., ., translation: as we look ahead, we consider our — translation: as we look ahead, we consider our steps, _ translation: as we look ahead, we consider our steps, this _ translation: as we look ahead, we consider our steps, this launch - translation: as we look ahead, we consider our steps, this launch of - consider our steps, this launch of so many— consider our steps, this launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles and drones— so many missiles, cruise missiles and drones into the territory of the state _ and drones into the territory of the state of _ and drones into the territory of the state of israel will be met with a response — state of israel will be met with a resonse. ., , , _ response. for president by then, this is now _ response. for president by then, this is now about _ response. for president by then, this is now about containing - response. for president by then, this is now about containing the l this is now about containing the fallout, with the insensitive of continued us assistance to israel so long as they don't go too far —— for president by then. inevitably, there are some israeli voices calling for an attack on iranian nuclear facilities, but the currentjudgment seems to be that won't happen any time soon. ., ., , ., ., ., , time soon. that would be an enormous escalation. time soon. that would be an enormous escalation- i'm — time soon. that would be an enormous escalation. i'm not— time soon. that would be an enormous escalation. i'm not entirely _ time soon. that would be an enormous escalation. i'm not entirely sure - escalation. i'm not entirely sure they would be successful in doing that, that would of course lead to all—out war. i don't think the israelis can handle the ongoing conflict in gaza, they still haven't

gone into rafah in the south, they are still fighting skirmishes with hezbollah, then to accelerate at such a significant way would probably, i would such a significant way would probably, iwould imagine, too much for israel. probably, i would imagine, too much for israel. ., , for israel. there are hopes in the defence ministries _ for israel. there are hopes in the defence ministries of— for israel. there are hopes in the defence ministries of the - for israel. there are hopes in the i defence ministries of the countries that acted to help defend israel on saturday night that what they did avoided a wider middle eastern war, but that danger remains a very real one, particularly as the question of iran's nuclear programme comes back to centre stage. in both iran and israel draw conclusions from the weekend's events. for iran's leadership, there will be lessons learned from the weekend's actions. those missiles that did hit israel's nevatim air base on saturday doesn't cause much damage. and of course the great majority of iran's weapons didn't get through at all. and there

are dangers there of israel drawing the conclusion that it can weather a bigger iranian strikes, too. it doesn't seem to be that the level of technical competency they had in this attack was particularly good. as i understand it, quite a number of these missiles actually failed to lodge. and quite if you fell short. it will be interesting to see. they are claiming that the only used very low tech stuff on this occasion, they are much better equipment sitting in hiding. 0thers they are much better equipment sitting in hiding. others more expert may be able to comment on that, but i have to say it is an odd way to conduct an attack. 300 missiles and drones or whatever but are all considered to be second rate, particularly if at the end of the day it is obviously not having the day it is obviously not having the impact that they wanted it to have. ., , ., , ., , have. iran still retains thousands of missiles _ have. iran still retains thousands of missiles and _ have. iran still retains thousands of missiles and drones _ have. iran still retains thousands of missiles and drones and - have. iran still retains thousands of missiles and drones and could j have. iran still retains thousands - of missiles and drones and could use its allies in lebanon to add to any

future bombardment of israel. there are some signs, though, that they might draw the lesson that conventional weapons are not enough in themselves to deter israel. {iii in themselves to deter israel. of the iranians that have a fully operational nuclear programme, that would _ operational nuclear programme, that would be _ operational nuclear programme, that would be much more of a deterrent for them _ would be much more of a deterrent for them going forward. i think it will change their voice in many of these _ will change their voice in many of these situations. i know that is something that notjust israel that many— something that notjust israel that many gulf— something that notjust israel that many gulf states and the united states— many gulf states and the united states and europe all do fear. but i am not _ states and europe all do fear. but i am not sure — states and europe all do fear. but i am not sure that there is much they can do— am not sure that there is much they can do about — am not sure that there is much they can do about that right now because it's pretty— can do about that right now because it's pretty close to being operational.— it's pretty close to being oerational. ~ �* , operational. so, the weekend's battle in the — operational. so, the weekend's battle in the skies _ operational. so, the weekend's battle in the skies may - operational. so, the weekend's battle in the skies may have i battle in the skies may have aftershocks that continue for months. conditioning iran's attitude as to whether to go for the bomb, and israel's about whether to try delaying that. and markjoins us your.

and markjoins us here. now to discuss this further, i'm joined in the studio by rob macaire, who from 2018 to 2021 was the uk's ambassador to iran, and down the line by merissa khurma, formerjordanian diplomat, and by general david petraeus, former director of the central intelligence agency. good evening to all of you. david petraeus, first of all, how dangerous a moment is this, notjust for the middle east but indeed for the world? the noises coming from israel tonight, we have already discussed that with mark, is that they are definitely going to exact a price. i they are definitely going to exact a rice. ~ , ., , they are definitely going to exact a rice. ~' , ., , ., price. i think the israelis do feel that they have _ price. i think the israelis do feel that they have to _ price. i think the israelis do feel that they have to respond. - price. i think the israelis do feel that they have to respond. this | price. i think the israelis do feel. that they have to respond. this is one of those issues where where you sit determines where you stand on the issue. 0bviously tel aviv and jerusalem feel that this unprecedented attack, the first ever attack directly from iranian soil, has to be responded to. the extraordinary success of their defences, together with the us, uk, france and others are not enough, there has to be some additional

action. washington, and the other hand, and another capital is presumably, they wanted israel to take the win and avoid what could be real consequences for the global economy if this gets further out of hand or a regional war. but israel i think does not like i talk to a very senior member of the government earlier this morning, and there was a sense that they do have to respond, but they are not sure how to respond and what the form of that could be. keep in mind that, as was discussed earlier, there is quite a menu of options, the high end which would be something again the nuclear programme, which i do not believe the intent to do. but i should add as an aside, if it is were assessed that iran truly is going to weapons grade enrichment, neither the us nor israel will allow that to go further. i think iran knows that, so they are at this threshold are not going beyond it. but it is a big moment. israel, keep in mind, what they know they need to do is thread

they know they need to do is thread the needle, respond in some way that is meaningful, but without raising that level again of violence between the two countries without ratcheting up the two countries without ratcheting up this escalation that has been taking place. just up this escalation that has been taking place-— up this escalation that has been takin: lace. , , , ., ., taking place. just in terms of what the us's holders _ taking place. just in terms of what the us's holders over— taking place. just in terms of what the us's holders over this, - taking place. just in terms of what the us's holders over this, one - the us's holders over this, one member of the war cabinet said tonight israel against iran, this is the result, this is a strategic achievement which we must leverage for israel's security. now, they need to leverage that, they would say, as much as they can, but what impact, and we will talk about the economy later, but what impact will whatjoe biden says right now have in terms of de—escalation? i what joe biden says right now have in terms of de-escalation?- in terms of de-escalation? i think it is one of _ in terms of de-escalation? i think it is one of many _ in terms of de-escalation? i think it is one of many factors - in terms of de-escalation? i think it is one of many factors that - it is one of many factors that israel has to consider. keeping in mind that they also don't want to, again, raise the escalation, yet they do need to respond. what fun

could that take? there is non—kinetic actions that could be taken, cyber activities, non—kinetic actions that could be taken, cyberactivities, it could non—kinetic actions that could be taken, cyber activities, it could be some kind of response in kind against other targets. keep in mind that, as was observed earlier, what iran sent was very well telegraphed, and it was not, i don't think... it was performative. let me bring in merissa khurma. how much support is there for israel hitting back hard against iran? i there for israel hitting back hard against "an?— against iran? i think the chorus currently in _ against iran? i think the chorus currently in the _ against iran? i think the chorus currently in the international. currently in the international community and the messages are very clear, _ community and the messages are very clear. it _ community and the messages are very clear. it is _ community and the messages are very clear, it is one calling for restraint, _ clear, it is one calling for restraint, calling for de—escalation. i think there is understanding and recognition that israel— understanding and recognition that israel has — understanding and recognition that israel has the right to defend itself— israel has the right to defend itself from that attack, but if it does _ itself from that attack, but if it does so, — itself from that attack, but if it does so, it _ itself from that attack, but if it does so, it has to do so that will not basically cause an all out regional— not basically cause an all out regional war. not basically cause an all out regionalwar. i have not basically cause an all out regional war. i have to many people from _ regional war. i have to many people from the _ regional war. i have to many people from the region this weekend. there was a _ from the region this weekend. there

was a sense... in from the region this weekend. there was a sense- - -_ was a sense... in the gulf region. across the _ was a sense... in the gulf region. across the middle _ was a sense... in the gulf region. across the middle east _ was a sense... in the gulf region. across the middle east region. i was a sense... in the gulf region. i across the middle east region. there was a _ across the middle east region. there was a sense — across the middle east region. there was a sense of fear that had not been _ was a sense of fear that had not been felt — was a sense of fear that had not been felt in decades. there was this uncertainty — been felt in decades. there was this uncertainty that people are unaware of what _ uncertainty that people are unaware of what the future will bring, if there _ of what the future will bring, if there is— of what the future will bring, if there is constant retaliatory attacks _ there is constant retaliatory attacks back and forth between the two adversaries. as general petraeus said, two adversaries. as general petraeus said. this _ two adversaries. as general petraeus said. this is _ two adversaries. as general petraeus said, this is the first direct attack— said, this is the first direct attack in _ said, this is the first direct attack in decades, you have reported on that, _ attack in decades, you have reported on that, but— attack in decades, you have reported on that, but there was also very intensive — on that, but there was also very intensive diplomacy that took place last week_ intensive diplomacy that took place last week ahead of the attack. various— last week ahead of the attack. various arab foreign ministers contacted the iranian foreign minister. _ contacted the iranian foreign minister, messages were delivered back and _ minister, messages were delivered back and forth to the biden

administration, there are also european interlocutors, and it seems that the _ european interlocutors, and it seems that the iranians were very intent on making — that the iranians were very intent on making sure that the world knows, i’i l ht on making sure that the world knows, right after the missiles and drones were lodged that they have now responded and the response is comlete. ., ~ responded and the response is complete-— responded and the response is comlete. ., ~ i. , complete. thank you. let me put that to rob- that — complete. thank you. let me put that to rob. that is the _ complete. thank you. let me put that to rob. that is the point, isn't- to rob. that is the point, isn't it, we have done it now, it is over? you think that will be the response rather than they will feel emboldened, iran will feel emboldened, iran will feel emboldened to develop another game plan. i emboldened to develop another game lan. ~ , , emboldened to develop another game ian, ~' , , ' . plan. i think it is very difficult to know- _ plan. i think it is very difficult to know. general— plan. i think it is very difficult to know. general petraeus- plan. i think it is very difficult l to know. general petraeus use plan. i think it is very difficult - to know. general petraeus use the phrase threading the needle about israel, but both sides are trying to thread the needle, aren't they? there is no instruction manualfor how to do this, sending me messages that will achieve what you want to achieve for either side. both sides want to restore deterrence, and when both sides want to restore deterrence, it is a dangerous moment. for iran, it is pretty clear, as you were saying, the intent of this attack was to draw a line, to see we have satisfied, we have shown we can do something, let's go back. but iran will be realistic, they will have heard what israel will sit and know something

is coming. israel will sit and know something is cominr. ., . ., ~' is coming. how close do you think iran is is coming. how close do you think iran is now _ is coming. how close do you think iran is now to _ is coming. how close do you think iran is now to a _ is coming. how close do you think iran is now to a nuclear _ is coming. how close do you think iran is now to a nuclear weapon? l iran is now to a nuclear weapon? there are a lot closer in terms of the amount of enrichment than they were a few years ago. the actual move to create a nuclear weapon, i think i would agree that iran will calculate very strongly about what the us administration and others have said, that this can't be something they would allow. all options on the table. you something they would allow. all options on the table.— something they would allow. all options on the table. you were there until 2021, you — options on the table. you were there unti12021, you keep _ options on the table. you were there until 2021, you keep close _ options on the table. you were there until 2021, you keep close ties - until 2021, you keep close ties obviously. is the iranian regime secure at the moment? i obviously. is the iranian regime secure at the moment?- obviously. is the iranian regime secure at the moment? i think they have lost a — secure at the moment? i think they have lost a lot _ secure at the moment? i think they have lost a lot of _ secure at the moment? i think they have lost a lot of legitimacy, - have lost a lot of legitimacy, effectively all legitimacy they had. the regime over the last few years has been circling the wagons, controlling the levers of power, into a small tight group of asian

people. there are a small section of the population who are loyal, but the population who are loyal, but the majority of people don't have any time or respect for the regime. could it fail in the next six months? we have had a start —— historically not very good record of predicting what happens in iran.— not very good record of predicting what happens in iran. where is this headed, do — what happens in iran. where is this headed. do you _ what happens in iran. where is this headed, do you think? _ what happens in iran. where is this headed, do you think? gosh. - what happens in iran. where is thisj headed, do you think? gosh. there are so many _ headed, do you think? gosh. there are so many different _ headed, do you think? gosh. there are so many different timescales. l are so many different timescales. this idea that seems to be around tonight that israel could take action quite soon, if that is correct, i think logically you go for military targets, probably try and hit back at some of the things that we use, the launchers and the bases that were used in that attack on saturday night on israel. as to where the bigger geopolitical struggle... where the bigger geopolitical struggle- - -— where the bigger geopolitical struggle. . .- yes, - where the bigger geopolitical| struggle. . .- yes, look, where the bigger geopolitical - struggle. . .- yes, look, those struggle... russia. yes, look, those are the really— struggle... russia. yes, look, those are the really big _ struggle... russia. yes, look, those are the really big questions going i are the really big questions going forward and i think iran has time

and again in the last decade shown what it regards as strategic patients, trying to achieve its goals in syria and yemen and other places —— strategic patience. i guess for them the name of the game at the moment is to try to keep their forces as intact as possible whilst still maintaining some pressure on israel through their proxies. ok, let's just pause for a second. the politics and economics of the continued turmoil in the middle east are intimately enmeshed, and already creating a ripple affect in energy prices — something that, in turn, could impact, for example, the us election. here's ben. what will the economic repercussions of this weekend's strike by iran on israel be — and how could it affect you? well, based on the financial market reaction today, one might be tempted to conclude the impact will be minimal. after all, the global crude oil price didn't move much today. but be wary of assuming that there's nothing to fear here in terms of an economic fallout. markets are forward looking, and, as you can see here, the oil price actually moved up by around $2 to $90 a barrel

in response to the strike on iran's consulate in damascus on 1st of april, which is understood to have been carried out by israel. this was financial markets anticipating an iranian military response. and note that the price is up by around $10 since the start of march — a pretty considerable rise and one certainly influenced by what's been going on in the middle east. analysts estimate a 10% increase in the global oil price adds 0.1 to 0.2% percentage points to headline inflation in advanced economies. so that $10 rise in a barrel of oil over the past month will already be pushing headline inflation in the uk and the us and europe up relative to where it otherwise would be. now, 0.1% might not sound too much, but the point is that there could be more to come. this map of the region helps to explain. iran is here and israel is here.

this is where those iranian—linked houthi attacks on shipping in protest at the israeli operation in gaza have been taking place — the bab al—mandab strait, leading up to the suez canal. diverting container shipping from there in response to that threat has already lengthened supply chains and pushed up costs for many western manufacturers. but this is the one to really watch — the strait of hormuz, between iran and the united arab emirates. a fifth of the global oil supply flows through here. disruption to oil tankers here really could have a profound impact on global energy prices. so iran can use drones, like the houthis, can use drones, mines, ships, to interfere with the flow of oil and gas. all they have to do is scare the insurance companies and tanker companies into not transiting. could we offset that somehow with new supply? and the answer is no. we think crude oil prices would go well into the $100 range, $120, $130 level, and then, you know, most oil price spikes

end with recessions. the assumption has been of the post—pandemic, post—ukraine invasion, inflationary shock waning really quite fast. and politicians seeking re—election across the world — from joe biden to rishi sunak — have been looking forward to central banks cutting interest rates and giving households some financial breathing space. if the situation in the middle east spirals downward, it could upset that, meaning the financial squeeze on households could last longer than we all hoped. it's worth looking at us gas, or petrol, prices. you can see how they've risen of late — up 15% this year to $3.71 a gallon, pushed up by the recent global oil price increase. compare that to the $2.2 a gallon at the time of the last us election. joe biden's team will be very concerned at this trend in a us election year, and that will likely be influencing their calls for restraint from israel.

such economic impacts are hypothetical, of course. what happens will depend on how israel responds in the coming hours and days, and how iran and other actors, in turn, respond to that. but make no mistake, the economic stakes for the global economy — and for all of us — are uncomfortably high. let's return to our panel. david petraeus, you mentioned economy right at the beginning, headline inflation could be up, we have a petrol price way ahead of where it was in 2020 and so how important will this be forjoe biden given that we already know that the trump biden game is pretty equal at the moment? it’s trump biden game is pretty equal at the moment?— the moment? it's very important. auain, if the moment? it's very important. again, if inflation _ the moment? it's very important. again, if inflation went _ the moment? it's very important. again, if inflation went back - the moment? it's very important. again, if inflation went back up i again, if inflation went back up again, if the price at the pump was to be demonstrably higher in a few months than what it was, and that

analysis was exactly right but there is one piece missing and that is that iran depends on freedom of navigation in the gulf to export about 1 navigation in the gulf to export about1 million barrels of crude oil about1 million barrels of crude oil a day itself. that could be reduced by sanctions that the us and other g7 countries put on iran in various ways, but they are dependent on this as well and if freedom of navigation is threatened, they will experience the same threat. i don't think they want to do that, i think they want to threaten doing that, they want to have that kind of leverage, but i don't think they want to lose their ability to export crude oiljust because they want to prevent that for the other gulf states but it's hugely important. it's exactly right to note that having to de—tour around africa instead of going through the red sea and suez canal is trivial, and that was priced in quickly by one of the largest investment companies in the world,

kkr. the gulf, on the other hand, if thatis kkr. the gulf, on the other hand, if that is to be disrupted it would have a profound effect and you would see a substantial spike in brent crude which is already up a bit in the $90 per barrel range, having a bit of a risk premium added to that because of the events of recent weeks. ~ , ., �*, ., ~ weeks. merissa khurma, let's talk about the gulf _ weeks. merissa khurma, let's talk about the gulf states, _ weeks. merissa khurma, let's talk about the gulf states, tourism, i about the gulf states, tourism, trade with israel and the oil price, how difficult a moment is this for these countries? it is how difficult a moment is this for these countries?— how difficult a moment is this for these countries? it is going to be difficult, especially _ these countries? it is going to be difficult, especially if _ these countries? it is going to be difficult, especially if we - these countries? it is going to be difficult, especially if we see - these countries? it is going to be difficult, especially if we see this| difficult, especially if we see this regional— difficult, especially if we see this regional conflict escalate further and widen, the ripple effects are already— and widen, the ripple effects are already being felt by neighbouring countries, egypt and jordan and lebanon — countries, egypt and jordan and lebanon which has its own economic crisis _ lebanon which has its own economic crisis from _ lebanon which has its own economic crisis from a — lebanon which has its own economic crisis from a few years ago and is constantly— crisis from a few years ago and is constantly being deepened. but also for israel— constantly being deepened. but also for israel itself. we have seen

workforce _ for israel itself. we have seen workforce shortages to that —— due to the _ workforce shortages to that —— due to the calling about 300,000 reservists but also shortages in the agricultural and construction sectors _ agricultural and construction sectors and is the political risk is elevated — sectors and is the political risk is elevated further and further, their ratings _ elevated further and further, their ratings with investment agencies or rating _ ratings with investment agencies or rating agencies will also be lowered and that— rating agencies will also be lowered and that will also impact the rest of the _ and that will also impact the rest of the gcc. prior to october seven, there _ of the gcc. prior to october seven, there were — of the gcc. prior to october seven, there were celebratory events commemorating the a ram and various economic— commemorating the a ram and various economic and — commemorating the a ram and various economic and free—trade agreements signed _ economic and free—trade agreements signed between israel, bahrain and the united arab emirates and that is not to— the united arab emirates and that is not to say— the united arab emirates and that is not to say this activity has completely stopped but of course it impacts _ completely stopped but of course it impacts where people stand on the issues, _ impacts where people stand on the issues, it— impacts where people stand on the issues, it impacts peoples sort of thirst— issues, it impacts peoples sort of thirst for— issues, it impacts peoples sort of thirst for more because it has impacted _ thirst for more because it has impacted public opinion in these countries — impacted public opinion in these countries and across the middle east and north— countries and across the middle east and north africa region. rob macaire, _ and north africa region. rob macaire, let's _ and north africa region. rob macaire, let's talk _ and north africa region. iffj macaire, let's talk about and north africa region. if; macaire, let's talk about those accords because it was going pretty well for israel and then it wasn't.

yes, and that has been the dynamic in the region that has been really interesting. in the region that has been really interesting-— interesting. normalisation of diplomatic— interesting. normalisation of diplomatic relations - interesting. normalisation of diplomatic relations for - interesting. normalisation ofj diplomatic relations for trade interesting. normalisation of - diplomatic relations for trade and everything. diplomatic relations for trade and eve hina. , diplomatic relations for trade and eve hina. _, diplomatic relations for trade and eve hint. i. , everything. exactly and people were lookin: at everything. exactly and people were looking at whether _ everything. exactly and people were looking at whether saudi _ looking at whether saudi arabia would come on board with that, and i think iran was quite public in saying one of the things they welcomed about the war that broke out after the 7th of october tax was that it put off the possibility of further normalisation so iran sees itself as benefiting from the depilation and disruption in the region. —— destabilisation and disruption. irate region. -- destabilisation and disruption-_ region. -- destabilisation and disrution. ~ ., , disruption. we said the regiment was difficult to predict, _ disruption. we said the regiment was difficult to predict, iran _ disruption. we said the regiment was difficult to predict, iran has _ disruption. we said the regiment was difficult to predict, iran has lived - difficult to predict, iran has lived for sanctions for a0 years, we saw it in 2021, the food shortages and the price of medicine and so forth, just how difficult is it in iran right now?— just how difficult is it in iran riahtnow? ., , , ., , right now? the economy is really hurtin: right now? the economy is really hurting and _ right now? the economy is really hurting and the _ right now? the economy is really hurting and the effect _ right now? the economy is really hurting and the effect of- right now? the economy is reallyl hurting and the effect of sanctions and other issues has really hit the economy and hit the living standards of ordinary people but i think

people forget sometimes, iran is a big country, a big economy, actually a wealthy economy and diversify it, notjust a wealthy economy and diversify it, not just about oil. a wealthy economy and diversify it, notjust about oil. it's very hard, thank you to have been there for a0 years, a committee to sanctions and it's hard to influence, is not a great record of influencing their behaviour by economic pressure. i think the economics by itself is unlikely to be a route to constrain the iran's behaviour. bind unlikely to be a route to constrain the iran's behaviour.— unlikely to be a route to constrain the iran's behaviour. and finally in terms of outside _ the iran's behaviour. and finally in terms of outside influence - the iran's behaviour. and finally in terms of outside influence on - terms of outside influence on israel, we have had everyone from david cameron to macron to buy than today, this business of restraint and what is acceptable is a movable feast presumably —— and joe biden. there are historical precedents, 91 in the war with iraq, saddam hussein firing scud missiles and basically the deal was, we will do it, you stay out. it's not quite the same

this time, the israelis obviously are involved in striking against iranian targets in various places but will they also strike in iran itself? we will see. but this guarantee bubbly is not perfect but it does seem to have some effect. because what the allies did over jordan on saturday night was clearly of great value to israel and the prospect of the allies standing by israel in the next few weeks or whatever i think is important to them. that is the key question in a way, the us and is will have an understanding about what sort of level of targeting, perhaps of military assets in iran, would be sufficient? not to rock the boat as part of that relationship is concerned and for the rob white at... �* ., ,.,.~., at... bring iran back at them. exactl . at. .. bring iran back at them. exactly. thank— at... bring iran back at them. exactly. thank you. _ this evening, the commons considered seven amendments to the rwanda legislation crafted by the house of lords and threw

out all of them. so the bill is heading for the statute books, but when will migrants be boarding a flight for rwanda, given that there may be more legal challenges than boarding passes? nick is at westminster. are flights to rwanda closer to taking off tonight?— are flights to rwanda closer to taking off tonight? they are closer but not there _ taking off tonight? they are closer but not there yet. _ taking off tonight? they are closer but not there yet. as _ taking off tonight? they are closer but not there yet. as you - taking off tonight? they are closer but not there yet. as you said, - but not there yet. as you said, there is a series of wins for the government tonight and a series of nos at the house of lords so what will happen at some point tomorrow is we will see a official organ from the house of commons down to the house of lords, medieval e—mail, the official name is it is a message which will take the bill as it has been amended to the house of lords. there is a strong expectation that tomorrow labour peers will throw in the towel, not confirmed but a strong expectation, and what that would mean is the king would then sign it into law on thursday. what we would then find is that there is

a delay until the flights can take off point i spoke to one member of the cabinet who said that delay would be around 12 weeks. that will take us to about mid july, a bit of speculation in recent days about maybe rishi sunak wants the general election injuly so may flights an election injuly so may flights an election at the same time, that has been confirmed i should say. that a minister who told me about that 12 week delay, they have knowledge of what is going on but they are not directly involved. i did speak to one minister who is directly involved in this and they said to me that yes, there will have to be a lag but they will not say how long that would be and what they are saying is they have been able to make a lot of preparations for the flights but there are some preparations they cannot make until the legislation hits the statute book put a bit of a joke in the cabinet to tonight saying it appears labour is more keen for this to become law so they cannot be blamed for blocking it because of course the challenge for the government is they have to make this work. let’s

they have to make this work. let's talk about rishi _ they have to make this work. let's talk about rishi sunak's _ talk about rishi sunak's predecessor, liz truss is doing the media rounds, her memoir is out so how is that going down at number 10? it has been less a trustee, multiple interviews publicising her book which is ten years to save the west. perlaza trust, it has been a day of mixed emotions. there are elements that she likes, there is a podcast, also that title plays into the idea that she was a victim. other elements have been rather difficult. it is a personal manifesto. her view is that the west will fall over in the next ten years. a personal manifesto, but it is a personal element, talking about how she is baring her soul. she has found elements of that quite difficult to deal with. elements of that quite difficult to dealwith. but elements of that quite difficult to deal with. but i do have to say, kirsty, there is incredulity amongst

conservative mps that liz truss appears to show absolutely no contrition. i spoke to one member of the cabinet and they sort of rolled their eyes, astonished to hear that liz truss is blaming everything else for what was a near economic meltdown that brought an end to her premiership, talking about how she might have a and talk about how donald trump has to become the next president of the united states. a few hours ago, chris mason sat down and interviewed liz truss for newscast and he asked about what she thinks of donald trump. so, i think what donald trump says often gets filtered by a media that are pretty anti—trump. so, i'm not saying that i agree with absolutely everything he's ever said, but he's been very clear that he is committed to nato, he's been very clear that he was the instigator of supplying the arms to back up ukraine. and i believe... you know, i do agree that under donald trump, when he was president of the united states, the world was safer.

you know, i think that our opponents feared the trump presidency more than they fear the democrats being in office. i think that's a reality. we can speak now to sir geoffrey clifton—brown, conservative mp and treasurer of the influential backbench 1922 committee. i will talk to in a moment about liz truss, but let's begin with a more substantive issue tonight, and that is rwanda. you knocked down seven amendments, rishi sunak said that flights would take off by spring, but you heard there that there could be a delay of 12 weeks. how likely is it that there will be no flights before the end of may?- is it that there will be no flights before the end of may? good evening. yes, the government _ before the end of may? good evening. yes, the government has _ before the end of may? good evening. yes, the government has won - before the end of may? good evening. yes, the government has won a - before the end of may? good evening. yes, the government has won a seriesj yes, the government has won a series of votes tonight. as nick racing, it

goes back to the house of lords tomorrow, there is a possibility that one or two those amendments could come back to the comments and we would debate those on wednesday. i think that is unlikely, therefore it is likely to go to the king for royal assent, and it is likely to have royal assent by the end of this week. that will be followed by a period of a few weeks, i think, because i have been some preparations that cannot legally be done until the bill is enacted as a law. that will now start, we will have a period, a pause if you like, for a few weeks and then hopefully we will get some flights off to rwanda. ~ ~' ., we will get some flights off to rwanda. ~ ~ ., ., we will get some flights off to rwanda. ~ ., ., . ., , ., rwanda. we know that charities who deal with asylum _ rwanda. we know that charities who deal with asylum seeking _ rwanda. we know that charities who deal with asylum seeking are - rwanda. we know that charities who deal with asylum seeking are going l deal with asylum seeking are going to mount legal challenges as quickly as possible. presumably that would block flights or not, geoffrey clifton brown?— block flights or not, geoffrey clifton brown? ._ , ., clifton brown? there may be legal challenaes clifton brown? there may be legal challenges on _ clifton brown? there may be legal challenges on some _ clifton brown? there may be legal challenges on some people, - clifton brown? there may be legal| challenges on some people, others may not have a case for a legal challenge. you will have to wait and see on that. a few flights could be

anything from ten to 15. we will have to wait and see how many and how many flights actually get off the ground —— ten to 50.1 how many flights actually get off the ground —— ten to 50. i think as soon as the first one gets off the ground, the diff deterrent effect for these book traffickers will be there and people wanting to make this dangerous journey across the channel will have to think twice if they know that they are likely to be sent to the land. i they know that they are likely to be sent to the land.— sent to the land. i think about the pubhc sent to the land. i think about the public accounts _ sent to the land. i think about the public accounts committee - sent to the land. i think about the public accounts committee where civil servants were being interviewed and questioned about the whole migrant policy. we have about a0,000 migrants here at the moment. i understand from the clips i saw that there was a conversation about, yes, certain people may well go to rwanda, but there may indeed have to be an amnesty for those who are not going to rwanda. what do you make of that? ~ ., , , .,

going to rwanda. what do you make of that? . , ,., ., ., that? well, amnesties are always a dancerous that? well, amnesties are always a dangerous thing — that? well, amnesties are always a dangerous thing because _ that? well, amnesties are always a dangerous thing because some - that? well, amnesties are always a dangerous thing because some of. dangerous thing because some of those may well be criminals who have got here. i think an amnesty would be absolutely the last resort. no, these people should be properly processed. those that do not have a genuine right as a refugee to be in the uk should then be sent to rwanda. �* , ., ., rwanda. but it seemed to me that civil servants _ rwanda. but it seemed to me that civil servants who _ rwanda. but it seemed to me that civil servants who were _ rwanda. but it seemed to me that civil servants who were answering | civil servants who were answering questions about the possibility of exactly that, that there would be some kind of amnesty to get the process through, to get people settled, then they can start working. i settled, then they can start workinu. ~' . ., settled, then they can start workinu. ~' .. , ., working. i think the thing can start workin: working. i think the thing can start working long _ working. i think the thing can start working long before _ working. i think the thing can start working long before we _ working. i think the thing can start working long before we have - working. i think the thing can start working long before we have to . working. i think the thing can start i working long before we have to make a decision on an amnesty. i think thatis a decision on an amnesty. i think that is a secondary order of things. the first order is to make sure that we do get the fights off to rwanda. talking about the effect of some of these agreements, the albanian agreement, for example, 6000 albanians have been sent back to albania, 90% of all those that came here are now being sent back to

albania. that has cut the illegal immigration slasher by some 30%. if we could get another significant cut by a deterrent on this rwanda policy, we would really be making an impact on the number of illegal immigrants coming to the uk. let me turn to liz truss. _ immigrants coming to the uk. let me turn to liz truss. you _ immigrants coming to the uk. let me turn to liz truss. you will— immigrants coming to the uk. let me turn to liz truss. you will be - immigrants coming to the uk. let me turn to liz truss. you will be very i turn to liz truss. you will be very aware that her memoir is out, she has been doing the rounds. she told chris mason that she was interested in the idea of winning, she still has the desire to change the country. if she is thinking of standing for the leadership, what is your message to her?— your message to her? well, i think that what the _ your message to her? well, i think that what the conservative - your message to her? well, i think that what the conservative party i that what the conservative party needs now is a period of unity, not caused by noises off from liz truss or anybody else. i hope this will not go on and we can concentrate on getting the really important policy issues, rwanda, the economy, the nhs, ratherthan issues, rwanda, the economy, the nhs, rather than concentrating on what liz truss may or may not want

to do in the future. that is not the primary issue i would suggest. would ou primary issue i would suggest. would you welcome — primary issue i would suggest. would you welcome her— primary issue i would suggest. would you welcome her as _ primary issue i would suggest. would you welcome her as a _ primary issue i would suggest. would you welcome her as a candidate? i i you welcome her as a candidate? i think the party would think very carefully if she were a candidate. there will be some very good candidates. i don't think that is likely to happen until after the election. we willjust have to wait and see. of course, she is elected as an mp, she will be entitled under the 1922 rules to put her name forward. it will then be up to my colleagues as to whether they wish to consider her for the position of leadership should be a vacancy at that point. leadership should be a vacancy at that oint. , , ., ., . that point. very diplomatic, geoffrey- — that point. very diplomatic, geoffrey. thank _ that point. very diplomatic, geoffrey. thank you - that point. very diplomatic, geoffrey. thank you very i that point. very diplomatic, i geoffrey. thank you very much for joining us tonight. donald trump has made history this afternoon, suffering the infamy of becoming the first former us president to stand trial in a criminal case. he's accused of falsifying business records to disguise hush—money payments made to adult film star stormy daniels ahead of the 2016 elections — charges he denies. this could be the only criminal trial to take place before

the presidential election later this year. here's what the former president had to say in the past hour outside court in new york. it looks like thejudge it looks like the judge isn't going to allow me to escape this scam. it's a scam trial. if you read all of the legal pundits, all of the legal scholars today, there's not one that i see that says this is a case that should be brought to trial. it's a scam, it's a political witchhunt. jennifer ewing is from republicans overseas uk and joins me now. thank you very much for coming in. how damaging do you think this trial is for donald trump's shot at the white house?— is for donald trump's shot at the white house? actually, if you look at all of the _ white house? actually, if you look at all of the polls _ white house? actually, if you look at all of the polls since _ white house? actually, if you look at all of the polls since these i at all of the polls since these indictments started, they are helping him. i know that sounds very counterintuitive, but we saw it about nine months ago when he and ron desantis, the governor of florida, they were neck and neck and

the polls for the nomination, then the polls for the nomination, then the indictments started coming out and drops numbers shot up over 30 points. now he is our presumptive nominee. it is not actually working in the way i think people thought it was going to work. but i in the way i think people thought it was going to work.— was going to work. but i suppose what ou was going to work. but i suppose what you have — was going to work. but i suppose what you have got _ was going to work. but i suppose what you have got there - was going to work. but i suppose what you have got there at i was going to work. but i suppose what you have got there at a i what you have got there at a criminal trial, what you have got there at a criminaltrial, he what you have got there at a criminal trial, he has to be there every day, therefore he has got television exposure every day, though he has to be very careful. the judge though he has to be very careful. thejudge might slap him down. absolutely. they put these crazy gag orders on him because trump was asking about, should the judge recused himself because his daughter, for example, is a big democratic fundraiser.- daughter, for example, is a big democratic fundraiser. what he said was the judge's _ democratic fundraiser. what he said was the judge's carter _ democratic fundraiser. what he said was the judge's carter was - democratic fundraiser. what he said was the judge's carter was a - democratic fundraiser. what he said was the judge's carter was a rabid . was the judge's carter was a rabid trump heater. do you think it is really a good move for donald trump to talk in those terms? it is really a good move for donald trump to talk in those terms?— to talk in those terms? it is donald trum - , to talk in those terms? it is donald trump. we — to talk in those terms? it is donald trump. we know — to talk in those terms? it is donald trump, we know how _ to talk in those terms? it is donald trump, we know how he _ to talk in those terms? it is donald trump, we know how he talks. it i to talk in those terms? it is donaldj trump, we know how he talks. it is very un—presidential, i agree with you. he does not use the most polite

words.