all eyes on frankfurt as the european central bank makes its latest policy decision. will europe lead the way to cheaper borrowing or wait for the us to make a move? us employers call for a shake—up of immigration rules as they struggle to fill vacancies despite record numbers arriving in search of a job. welcome to world business report. who will cut interest rates first, europe or america? in a few hours�* time, we will know the european central bank's thinking on this matter when they announce their latest interest rate decision. the ecb has kept interest rates at a record high of 4.00% since september, but it

has signalled that cuts could be coming into view. inflation is falling faster than forecast in europe, but it's the opposite story in the us, prompting investors to predict the european central bank could cut interest rates earlier than the federal reserve. tomasz wieladek is chief european economist at asset management firm, t rowe price. good to have you with us. let me ask you that question, will the ecb go first. i you that question, will the ecb go first. ~ . . , first. i think it certainly will go first. i think it certainly will go first. probably _ first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not _ first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not today - first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not today but i first. i think it certainly will go - first. probably not today but most likely injune, and that will be the start of a sequence of rate cuts. the big question of course is how many and how deep those cuts will be. talk me through what the ecb will be weighing up right now. the ecb will be will be weighing up right now. tue: ecb will be very will be weighing up right now. tte: ecb will be very much focused on domestic generated inflation but also wage numbers. on the wage numbers, it came in at 3.3% for

march. so, the wage numbers are really looking as if they will support a number of rate cuts this year. i think four rate cuts this year. i think four rate cuts this year are likely and then maybe one or two more after that, so overall, we will end up at a rate of around 2.5% once they are done, probably next year. fix, 2.596 once they are done, probably next ear. �* . . ., next year. a real divergence in what is happening — next year. a real divergence in what is happening in _ next year. a real divergence in what is happening in europe _ next year. a real divergence in what is happening in europe as _ next year. a real divergence in what is happening in europe as to - next year. a real divergence in what is happening in europe as to what i next year. a real divergence in what is happening in europe as to what isi is happening in europe as to what is happening in the us. we sell consumer prices in the worlds largest economy creeping light higher. jamie dimon is suggesting interest rates there could hit 8%. why such a disparity and why the two heading in such different directions?— heading in such different directions? �*, , , y�* directions? it's because they've been hit by _ directions? it's because they've been hit by two _ directions? it's because they've been hit by two very _ directions? it's because they've been hit by two very different i been hit by two very different shocks, the pandemic but also the war in ukraine. the latter is something the us is not much

experienced in terms of gas prices, but also fiscal policy has been really different with germany and france tightening fiscal policy as a response, while the us is still running up deficits. that indeed is driving business cycles far apart and that is the reason for it. what and that is the reason for it. what are the reasons _ and that is the reason for it. what are the reasons is _ and that is the reason for it. what are the reasons is there _ and that is the reason for it. what are the reasons is there for- and that is the reason for it. what are the reasons is there for the us and europe being so out of step when it comes to economic policy? how does it manifest in businesses day—to—day? does it manifest in businesses day-to-day?— does it manifest in businesses da -to-da ? , ., , day-to-day? the implications there are that, day-to-day? the implications there are that. from _ day-to-day? the implications there are that, from an _ day-to-day? the implications there are that, from an asset _ day-to-day? the implications there l are that, from an asset management perspective, with the euro going forward, in terms of business decisions, the us will remain because of much stronger growth, probably an important area of the world to invest in, also because of in incentives generated by the ira. especially in germany, they will have two are away from cheap gas,

away from cheap cost of labour, most of which have been exhausted. so the european economy has a lot of structural adjustment to do than the us itself. the us will continue to be investment friendlier especially because of all the fiscal subsidies right now. because of all the fiscal subsidies riaht now. �* , ., because of all the fiscal subsidies riahtnow. �* ., ., ~ ., right now. always good to talk to ou. right now. always good to talk to yon thank _ right now. always good to talk to yon thank yon _ china is accused of flooding britain with counterfiet stamps. there are calls for royal mail to investigate after customers who received letters with the fake stamps on them were then given a fine. a senior conservative mp has told the bbc he's certain the counterfeits are coming from china. ben boulos has been investigating. have a look at this. can you tell the difference between these two stamps? in this case, the one on the left was fake, the one on the right is, the one on the right isn't a fake,

it is genuine, but even a senior boss of royal mail admitted it is difficult to spot a fake. barcoded stamps were introduced in 2022 to cut down on the sale of fakes, but recently people around the uk have been getting caught out and being charged £5 to collect their post because the stamp on the envelope isn't actually valid. there are now claims that china is behind the counterfeits, with reports people are unknowingly buying defects from chinese firms through various online marketplaces. the senior tory mp iain duncan smith has told breakfast this morning he believes that china is behind it and one national security think tank added, "we don't know the extent to which the chinese government is involved but we do know that chinese firms are," and questioned why the chinese communist party would be allowing it to happen. speaking to bbc watchdog last night royal mail's david gold said the chance of getting a counterfeit stamp is still low. people should understand

that the overwhelming majority of stamps on sale are legitimate. in fact since we introduced bar—coded stamps, which means that every stamp is unique, we have got a number of counterfeit stamps coming through the network by 90%. and that means the number of stamps that we are spotting account for less than 0.1% of the total stamps going to the network. even so, watchdog spoke to people who ended up with counterfeit stamps, despite buying them at the post office counter in their local convenience shops. there are things to look out for which could show that a stamp is fake. if you look carefully, strange perforations around the edge, a shine to the surface, or the colour looking slightly off. the uk entertainment sector holds its �*oscars' for the games

industry later this evening — the bafta games awards. leading the nominations, baldur�*s gate 3 — from the belgian developer, larian studios — which won best game at the us awards last month. the bafta games awards turn 20 this year — in the last two decades the global games market has grown to an estimated quarter of a trillion dollars. but after years of growth the industry is facing an unprecedented crisis as the pandemic boom in gaming turns to bust with thousands ofjob losses in the past couple of years. marc winther is head of game ecosystems at esl faceit group which holds gaming and �*esports' tournaments. the bafta games awards are the oscars of our gaming industry, so definitely important. definitely good to see we get the same recognition as the bigger industries of present and previous times. companies are reevaluating how to best serve their users and engage with their audience and to continue to grow that fandom.

but that also includes rightsizing companies, sustainable head counts, finding more lean business models to be around for the next decade. in my side of the business, e—sports has long been driving the gaming industry and it will continue to play a vital part in the overall gaming industry in the future. right now in china, our re—entry into the chinese market after coronavirus and we are seeing... we are blown away actually. the e—sports landscape continues to grow with over 5 million fans worldwide. we continue to see numbers go up and interest in new markets. predominantly gaming is of course european, asian, north american. but we see emerging markets such as india, the middle east and other regions starting to become more and more relevant. let's return to the us now, where business owners in new york have told the bbc that the immigration system is �*not

working' and is �*broken' as they struggle to find staff — this despite record numbers of new migrants arriving in search of a job. erin delmore has been taking a look at the political and bureaucratic issues adding to america's labour shortage. for columbia native, alexandra gomez castro, overwhelming joy when she finally got a permit to work legally in new york city. translation: when i received the work permit i became - filled with tears. a great emotion. she, her husband and their three children are part of an unprecedented wave of migrants arriving in new york city, totalling more than 180,000 since 2022. they come from all over the world, many from south and central america fleeing threats of violence by foot and seeking asylum at the us border. translation: we arrived with nothing because they took absolutely _ everything away during the journey. there, she and her

children were separated. translation: how would i explain to a ten-year-old girl— the motive for which we came. it was hard for her to learn about the attempted murder of her mother and father. reunited, the family travelled further north to new york city which uniquely provides shelter to anyone without housing. a nonprofit project handled her asylum application and secured her work permit. but not everyone finds their way through the complex forms and bureaucracy. they wait in old hotels and schools and now makeshift shelters teeming with new arrivals. city services are buckling. calls to shut the border or send them back are at a fever pitch. yet business owners in the city say these new arrivals could be the answer to their labour shortages. i'm on a whatsapp group with 300 restauranters. everyone is asking all the time, do you have a line cook?

do you know a manager? do you have a waiter? migrants come by this mexican restaurant looking for work. but the path to legal work is slow and complicated. the system is broken. these folks are here without the tools that they need to help me. it's that basic. i know for sure in new york city in the restaurant business if the workers could work we would have jobs. native—born workers don't make up as much of the us workforce as they used to. the baby boomers are retiring and birth rates have been falling for a while. so if the us wants to keep up the size of its workforce or grow it, immigrants and migrants are a readily available solution. we need the federal government to take action to make it - easier for people to come and fill these jobs. - i it's not like they are displacing . new yorkers, displacing americans from working in theirjobs.

for centuries immigrants have travelled to the us looking for work and attempting to create a better life for their families. their work is imprinted on new york's restaurant scene and so many other businesses. translation: i am a woman that will learn to work in whatever, - even if it's complicated. many in america may not welcome her, but alexandra and her family are living out a very american story. elon musk has announced on his social media platform x, formerly twitter, that he will visit india to meet prime minister narendra modi without giving a date. the tesla boss is expected to announce major investment plans in the country soon.

hello, i'm chetan pathak with your latest news, live from the bbc sports centre. because of adverse weather at augusta national the start of golf�*s first major of the year is being delayed, with play not expected to start until a couple of hours or so. the biggest names from the pga tour and liv series will be competing against one another with the title being defended byjohn rahm whojust moved from one to the other, whilst rory mcilroy�*s chasing that, thus far, elusive first green jacket. joe lynskey reports. april at augusta, golf's greatest spectacle, one man's greatest hope. for 15 years, rory mcilroy has tried. this is the one major he is still yet to win. last time out, he missed the cut. one year on from being runner—up. it is almost one decade since his last major title but the best in this sport still think it will come.