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tv   Unspun World with John Simpson  BBC News  March 16, 2024 5:30am-6:01am GMT

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the government of ukraine has condemned polling stations being used in parts of ukraine which have been occupied by russia during the war. mike pence says he will not be backing mike pence says he will not be backing his former boss, donald trump, in the us presidential election. the former vice president said he had profound policy differences — and his decision should not come as a surprise. a busy stretch of the m25 motorway near london has been closed for the weekend, for construction work. diversions are in place between junctions 10 and 11 — and there are warnings of long delays to journeys. i'll be back at the top of the hour. now on bbc news, unspun world withjohn simpson
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hello, and welcome to unspun world here at the bbc�*s headquarters in central london. in this edition — is now the moment when the russians turn the tide in ukraine. it is russia making its size and resources count. it's russia that can throw more men at its fight. haiti, arguably the world's most ungovernable country, erupts yet again. the security forces in haiti are clearly in a situation of disadvantage against these gangs, who now control big sections of the capital, port—au—prince. and will the oceans one day be navigated by ships without a single human being on board? future vision of lots of companies looking into this to have, say, a captain sitting there on land in charge of multiple ships sailing the oceans around the world. things aren't looking
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at all rosy for ukraine at the moment. the days when russia's armed forces were slow, clumsy and predictable have gone. they've upped their game. and the huge advantage russia has in manpower and industrial might has started to tell. ukraine still has its successes, and it could make things very hard for russia in crimea. but in the business of winning small towns and villages along the front line, places like avdiivka, russia's huge numbers and its utter carelessness about the casualties it suffers means it's doing better and better. all this comes at a time when supplies of cash and weaponry for ukraine from the united states are increasingly in question. the bbc�*s ukraine correspondent
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james waterhouse knows both the front line fighting and the politics in kyiv well. i asked him for his thoughts. as a consequence of this military aid package being blocked in the us by political disagreement, we saw ukrainian troops increasingly find themselves outnumbered and outgunned. and after weeks of some of the heaviest fighting, ukraine pulled out, russia took the town of avdiivka and crucially, they haven't stopped there. so while we're still talking about a relatively static front line, we were there last week, you could see where the russians were trying to take village after village and where the ukrainians were struggling to set up a new defensive position. and what the generals are telling us is that, look, there is a natural landscape here, there's a valley, there are reservoirs
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which will contain the russian advance. but it puts cities like kostyantynivka, kupiansk further north, in a really difficult position where people there know what's coming, where they know that as part of the russian playbook, they will look to gradually destroy these cities. these cities will gradually become more uninhabitable. i mean, the story that we heard here was that ukraine didn't want to lose its men to prisoner of war camps, and that they pulled out rather than losing their men and material. is that spin on ukraine's part? i think with avdiivka, while we've seen ukrainian forces back off at a slightly quicker rate, the bbc has heard testimony from soldiers that paint a picture of quite a frantic withdrawal where losses were suffered, where several soldiers were captured on the way out. because as ever, you see that russian tide as they try to envelop the city, and you could see footage of ukrainian troops driving out on armoured vehicles under heavy artillery fire.
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that does not portray an organised withdrawal whilst minimising losses. the decision by the republican members of congress wasn't related to the actual fighting on the ground, it was a matter of principle. do we want to pay this kind of money to a country which we don't actually feel any real kind of connection to? will that attitude simply continue regardless of what the fighting on the ground is doing? first off, it does lie with america, ukraine's ability to, in any way, win this war because of the speed and scale it can manufacture ammunition. if you are a sceptical republican with a focus on domestic issues, then it's very hard for ukraine to renew that faith, not least with events in the middle east as well. ukraine is having to really readjust to having to share the spotlight, which is why
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you're hearing a lot about domestic manufacturing of weapons, notably drones. we mustn't forget the successes ukraine has had in targeting crimea with long range missiles and sea drones. they have degraded russia's navy whilst barely having one themselves. you know, there is a long game here where they could potentially isolate crimea, but a long game is not what ukraine needs at the moment — it needs results. people who like to see historical parallels would think about stalin's invasion of finland in 1939. the finns fought them to a standstill, but only for a time because in the end, the manpower that stalin was able to throw into it started to tell. the outcome was not a win for russia but at least not a defeat. and russia got quite a lot of finnish territory. is that what's going to happen here, do you think? in the crudest sense, when you strip away everything
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else in this war, we are in a war of attrition and you see both sides trying to mobilise enough men to sustain the fight. it is clear that both sides have learnt lessons, but it is russia making its size and resources count, as you say, it is russia that can throw more men at its fight. and if you're looking to take more territory, you need a numerical advantage. and it's ukraine holding on. but what ukraine and some western allies are keen to point out is look, look how much russia's army and its navy has been degraded. and i think, john, if we're going to talk about history, and if we were to have this conversation in the future, it does feel like that juncture where should this political impasse continue across the atlantic and ukraine's ability to fight is hindered and ultimately russia doesn't lose, as you put it, then this could well be the decade when the west was unable to curb russia's, vladimir putin's aggression towards the west and towards ukraine which has been stuck in the middle.
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at present, the worst humanitarian crisis caused by war isn't, as you might think, in gaza, terrible though the situation there is. the world food programme, a un agency, says the world's largest threat from hunger at present is in sudan, with 25 million people across sudan itself, south sudan and chad all affected. the war in sudan is ferocious, and it's based on a raw desire for power. it started nearly a year ago when the sudanese army, under general burhan, fell out with the paramilitary rapid support forces group known as rsf, headed by a leader with the single nickname, hemedti. hemedti is said to be backed by the united arab emirates, though the uae denies this.
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and it's said he flies around africa meeting potential allies in a jet registered in dubai. the un has been looking into all this. for more details, i turn to anne soy, the bbc�*s deputy africa editor in nairobi. the un panel of experts report does point out that the united arab emirates may be the source of support for the rsf and hemedti and the arms have been coming in through chad, mainly, into darfur, then therefore into sudan. there are other routes, as well, through south sudan and libya. now the chadian government, as well as the united arab emirates, have denied these reports. and in february of this year, the army, which essentially now is the de facto government of sudan, closed the border, the western border.
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they said that was because they thought that some of the humanitarian aid that has been coming in through that border into darfur has been used as a cover to smuggle weapons. already there have been serious, serious food shortages in the country, and they are worried that it could reach the highest levels of food insecurity. that is a hunger catastrophe going into the lean season in may and onwards. what's in it for a gulf state to get involved with one side or another in sudan? i mean, what is the connection? sudan is a member of the arab league and therefore, when it comes to voting, you know, the different sides would like to have them in their corner. so it's really a question of geopolitics. and, you know, we're talking about a country that has, is, you know, has
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been exporting oil. it is rich in gold. and there are reports that i have come across recently that some of this gold is now being smuggled because of the breakdown in security. it's being smuggled mostly to the gulf states. so, yes, there is geopolitics at play, but at the same time, you know, it's a question of resources as well. and in the meantime, as you say, it's becoming the worst humanitarian crisis in the world at the moment. that's right. it's already the world's largest displacement crisis. more than eight million sudanese have been displaced, both in the country and to neighbouring countries and the places people are fleeing to are really not much better because they are themselves countries that are fragile, that already have their own humanitarian needs, which are grossly underfunded.
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is this another example of the way in which western influence is fading away in central africa, perhaps throughout africa ? in the past, the united states would be involved in trying to find solutions directly. over time, we have seen a re—engineering of their engagement with africa, with african countries, and in west africa i think that influence is much more felt. it's much more visible, especially when you look at the three countries in the sahel — burkina faso, mali and niger that have completely cut off their relationship with france. there has been a deliberate effort in the recent years for russia to increase their influence on the continent,
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either through wagner or directly as the russian state. and what about other countries? what about china ? when you look at china, their relationship has actually been perhaps slightly different compared to russia, because russia is really about military support and, you know, working with coup leaders. china has been very keen to maintain what they call a non—interference policy. they have in the recent past invested heavily in infrastructure. so it's very visible. and unlike the west, that would talk very strongly about democracy and human rights, for china, it's completely hands—off when it comes to that. and therefore it has won the hearts of many autocrats on the continent. it's hard to think there might be anywhere on earth worse than sudan at present,
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but there is — haiti. the days of papa doc duvalier and the tonton macoute in the 1950s and �*60s seem positively mild compared with the utter lawlessness of haiti today. ever since the assassination of president moise in 2021, there's been no serious government, and a wild ex—policeman turned gang leader called jimmy cherizier is rampaging through the capital. the prime minister, ariel henry, left the country and has now resigned. what ever can be done? a question i put to luis fajardo of bbc monitoring, who's based in miami. henry has not established a timeline for his departure, and he's giving the handing over power to this transitional council and much less to an election. and, of course, haiti has heard before promises of a transition of political change that have
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extended, have not occurred, and they have eventually led to new surges of violence. the security forces in haiti are clearly in a situation of disadvantage against these gangs who now control or have controlled for a while, big sections of the capital, port—au—prince. and the last few days, one of the things that perhaps brought even more urgency of having a solution for this problem was that this violence was getting closer and closer to the more strategic places of government in the centre of port au prince. can you explain to me what the whole basis of this is? i mean, this gang leader, barbecue, does he have any kind of purpose? the man who's referred to as barbecue, he was formerly a special forces police officer in haiti. so he's not completely outside of the establishment, if you would like to describe it like that.
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and in haiti, there has been a long tradition of some sort of cooperation or ties between politicians and these armed gangs, and people are uncertain of his political objectives. at this point, it seems to be a struggle for domination among many, many different gangs. however, it is clear that many of these gang groups have political intentions, have had political intentions. again, there is a precedent of haitian criminal gangs becoming sort of a paramilitary wing of the state in many occasions before in haiti. does he have the overall control? is it a matter of his personality bringing together these nine, we're told, groups of gangsters, or is he just another kind of passing figure who actually won't have any political
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power into the future? it's very hard to say. he, as you mentioned, he's apparently the leader of this so—called g9 coalition of gangs in haiti. of course, he's not the only game in town, so to speak. there's more than 300 gangs trying to control. he has apparently been also very media—savvy. he has appeared in social media constantly during this crisis, very often giving these blood—curdling threats against the security forces of the state. and, of course, people have to factor in what will happen when, as expected, a multinational security force will eventually arrive in haiti. the history of international forces in haiti is not a terribly good one, is it? not at all. that's actually one
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of the points that barbecue was kind of suggesting that, in many cases, he could argue, or he claimed, that haitians had not benefited at all from these foreign interventions, even recent foreign actions in haiti, for example, the presence of a multinational force from the united nations. it was extremely controversial. there were alleged incidents of sex abuses by some of the members of the forces. and that is not even beginning to talk about the long—term history of haiti, of decades of military occupation by the united states. so, of course, in haiti, there's going to be a lot of prevention, a lot of cynicism about what this multinational force can do. but the truth is, and certainly the gang leaders have been saying it, is that haiti has not had a great experience with these international interventions, however well—intended they are. we're just edging into
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a new world altogether, a world in which a great many jobs are going to be done by artificial intelligence. where it'll take us, no—one really knows. but certainly many of the jobs which have a reassuringly human presence will soon be done by machines or at a distance by remote control. suppose, for instance, the oceans were crisscrossed by ships without a single human being on them. the bbc�*s science editor, rebecca morrell, has been reporting on a new project for robotic ships. we saw the ship being tested out in the fjords of norway, you know, incredibly beautiful place. and we saw it sort of operating around. but the team controlling some aspects of the work on the ship were actually based in southampton, so hundreds and hundreds of miles away. so the company who are building these ships, ocean infinity, they've built this sort of very futuristic control room. you know, it looks kind of almost like a film set when you go in there.
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there are all of these booths and they've got lots of different monitors in front and you've got live images streaming back from the ship. you've got the remote operator sitting there with kind of gaming—like controls, almost. and so what they're planning to do is to move more and more of the work from the ship to the land. now, they can't get rid of all of the crew, yet, or move them all to land, i should say, because there are certain bits of regulation and rules that have to be followed. so for a ship of that size, you need to have a minimum crew on board and you need to have a captain on board the ship as well. but their future vision and the future vision of lots of companies looking into this are to have, say, a captain sitting there, you know, on land in charge of multiple ships sailing the oceans around the world. maybe it's my suspicious mind, but i can't help thinking that it's an open invitation to piracy. how could you possibly ward off the pirates if you're sitting in southampton, you know,
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with just a little board? you know, at the moment there are rules and regulations which kind of look after aspects of that, keeping ships and their crew safe at sea. and that's, they're set by the international maritime organisation and they're currently looking at all of the rules they have with regard to shipping to say, well look, if we're talking about a future with a very small crew of people on board a ship or even no people on board at all, what do we need to change? so, for example, you know, the international law of the sea says at the moment, a captain has to be on board the ship, but they're saying, well, does the captain still count as a captain if he's in a control room in southampton? so they're looking at issues like cybersecurity. so it's notjust piracy, for example, you know, people boarding the ship.
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what if someone hacks into a remote control centre to take control of the ship? you know, you could be sort of, if you've got high—tech boats, maybe you can be more high—tech about what you can do with them. there are issues like safety, collisions. what happens if there's a collision at sea? who's to blame for that? if you've got kind of no—one on board the ship or a very limited number of people on board the ship, and, you know, there are sort of recruitment issues within the maritime industry, as well. they can't get enough people to go to sea. so sort of while there are potential issues and sort of safety issues that need to be looked at, there are also sort of issues aboutjobs, too. sojobs moving to land. well, that might really suit some people. it might change who enters the industry and what they do there, as well. but there are some smaller boats out there — i mean, this does sound very sci—fi — with absolutely no—one on board at all. this is purely a piece of machinery out there and again, doing survey work, kind of monitoring the seabed.
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but that was being entirely operated by a remote control crew in aberdeen. i mean, one of the things you can do, if you make the crew smaller in terms of numbers, or have no crew at all, you're not having to go back to land quite so often to, you know, restock, pick people up, drop them off. you haven't got people flying around the world getting onto the ships. you're using less fuel because of it. you can make your ships smaller as well because you don't need to build sort of, if you've got no crew, you don't have to bother building sort of special areas for people on board the vessel. in terms of carbon dioxide, they're emitting less than a larger ship with a bigger crew on it. isuppose, i mean, this is the future, isn't it? a future of air travel, possibly, and cars, probably. all of those industries are moving in those directions. at the moment with the ships, it's more they are robotic. they're not really using ai, yet. so they're still sort of, they're not kind of, they're not really thinking for themselves. but there are different levels...
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but that will come, won't it? yeah, i mean, there are different levels of autonomy which are being investigated. soon we'll have television programmes and no people on them. well, i mean, it's probably coming sooner than we think, worryingly! i hope not. but no, i mean, it's been amazing as a human being to go and see these ships and see them do their stuff. rebecca morrell, science editor. meanwhile, ramadan has started and there's still no ceasefire between israel and hamas in gaza. hamas says one of the reasons it launched its brutal raids on southern israel on the 7th of october was to mobilise muslims around the world over the huge difficulties which palestinians have in getting to the al—aqsa mosque in the old city ofjerusalem, to pray during ramadan. president biden was anxious to get a ceasefire in gaza before ramadan started in order
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to defuse the situation a little. but of course, that didn't happen. israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, is still defying western governments by insisting that he'll attack the gazan city of rafah soon, in order to wipe out hamas. but although israel claims to have killed the number—four figure in the hamas leadership, there's absolutely no sign yet of the total victory which mr netanyahu says he wants. and meanwhile, you've only got to look at the streets of any western capital to see that hamas is already achieving its aim of mobilising opinion against israel. a un report the other day confirmed many of the horrors of the 7th of october attacks in gruesome detail.
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but the shock which those things created around the world has long since been overlaid by the overwhelming nature of the israeli response. more than 30,000 people have died in gaza now, well over half of them women and children, and western countries are scrambling around trying to get supplies to the tens of thousands who are in danger of starving. no—one can yet say if israel will score a military victory but in the month of ramadan, this certainly doesn't look like a propaganda victory for them. well, that's it from this edition of unspun world, here at the bbc. from the unspun team and from me, goodbye, until we meet again.
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hello again. friday was a day of sunny spells and passing showers, as those shower clouds started to collapse down late in the day, we had some pretty still conditions there in the highlands. temperatures in scotland, northern ireland and wales generally quite close to average, but across large parts of england, in contrast, it was very mild, 17 degrees in east anglia, six above average for the time of year. now the showery conditions on friday were caused by this area of low pressure that's working out of the way now. it will be bringing some heavy snow to parts of sweden and norway into saturday. get a quiet ridge of high pressure, a weather window, if you like, ahead of the next system that's working in off the atlantic. what all that means is over the next few hours, increasingly, the skies will tend to clear. and what that means is we'll see temperatures drop like a stone. and heading into the first part of saturday morning, there'll be quite a widespread frost, scotland, northern ireland, parts of northern england as well. a chilly start to the day then, but a lovely sunny morning through most of the uk on saturday.
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however, rain will quickly spread into northern ireland along with some strengthening winds, and we'll see some splashes of rain getting into wales and southwest england. the rain probably not too heavy here through the course of the morning. across eastern england, eastern areas of scotland after that sunny but chilly start to the day, ok, the weather will tend to turn a bit cloudier, but it should stay dry until after dark, really. temperatures 10—14 celsius. now for the second half of the weekend, we've got a band of rain that's going to come through saturday night. the dregs of that still around across eastern england as we start the day on sunday. following that, we'll have southwesterly winds bringing mild air across the uk, and we'll be looking at some showery conditions moving back in. so, sunday weather—wise we start off with rain across east anglia, southeast england. that clears away. sunny spells follow widely, but there will be some scattered showers, some of them turning quite heavy through the course of the afternoon. the southwesterly winds drudging up some mild air across all parts of the country. temperatures about 13 celsius in glasgow and belfast, but up to around 15—16 celsius in the warmest parts of england. beyond that, southerly winds are going to kind of dominate into the early part of the new week. however, with low pressure never far
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away, there will be some showers or longer spells of rain affecting western areas at times. however, it does stay mild, 13 celsius, the top temperature in edinburgh through monday and tuesday, and it stays mild, really, through the week in london with highs of around 16 celsius or so. good morning. welcome to breakfast, with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. our headlines today:
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the first aid to be sent to gaza by sea arrives in the territory — around 200 tonnes of food are delivered to a temporaryjetty. warnings of delays and tailbacks, as a section of the m25 is closed for the weekend — a diversion is in place around the roadworks in surrey but drivers are told to keep away. i think you with every ventricle of my heart. never give up caring. sir lenny henry signs off after fronting his last comic relief with heartfelt thanks — and a new version of a a well known song. i'm just len, chatting on the phone with james corden. what will it take for me to leave these shows? retirement knows... it's super saturday in the six nations. four teams can mathematically win the championship later — but it's ireland who are in the driving seat to land back—to—back titles.

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