stefanie brown james. miles taylor, washington dc. first, the latest headlines. the british chancellor cuts national insurance and extends child benefit as the government sets out spending plans before a general election likely to be held this year. polls suggest the governing conservatives are trailing far behind the opposition labour party. nikki haley pulls out of the republican race for the white house, but stops short of endorsing donald trump. ms haley said it was now up to the former president to earn the votes of those who had not supported him. the united states says it will continue to hold yemen's houthi movement to account after at least two people were killed in a missile attack on a liberian owned ship.

the houthis, who have claimed responsibility, say the crew had rejected its warning messages. and a russian missile strike has hit the ukrainian city of odesa during a visit by the greek prime minister. russia has confirmed it carried out an attack on odesa, saying it targeted a maritime drone facility. good evening. nikki haley has announced she is suspending her presidential bid. this is cnn breaking news. nikki haley will announce today that she is exiting the presidential race. and we are beginning with some breaking news for you, nikki haley is suspending her presidential campaign today. breaking news this morning, i nikki haley will be delivering remarks in charleston, _ south carolina later this morning. it is being reported _ that she is going to announce she is dropping out of the race. guys, we are getting significant news in. reports that nikki haley has called for news conference at 10am eastern time this morning. some reports that she may

suspend her campaign. we haven't confirmed that here at nbc news, but she will speak... the former governor surprised the pundits last night with an unlikely win in vermont, but elsewhere on super tuesday donald trump, swept the board, piling up hundreds of delegates on his march to the nomination. the count is now superflous, her concession speech in charleston this morning effectively ends the gop primary. it will be biden v trump in november. haley congratulated trump as the gop nominee, but as yet she is withholding her endorsement of the former president. it is now up to donald trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him, and i hope he does that. at its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away, and our conservative cause badly needs more people. this is now his time for choosing. and there was another concession today,

congressman dean phillips of minnesota. he announced he was suspending his primary challenge to president biden, ending a campaign that never gained any traction. biden won all the super tuesday states. the only surprise came in american samoa, where 91 votes were cast in the democratic caucus, biden lost, 51 — 40, to businessman and presidential candidate jason palmer. he willjoin us later on the programme. the battle right now is for those voters that backed nikki haley. potentially that chunk of moderates and independents, who could well decide the november election. in a tweet last night, biden warned them, that trump would take the country backwards. "every generation of americans he said faces a moment when it has to defend democracy. this is our fight." trump has the very same message. "if you don't vote for me," he says, "you won't have a country," and so far it appears to be working. they call it super tuesday

for a reason, this is a big one. and they tell me, the pundits and otherwise, there's never been one like this and this has never been anything so conclusive... this was an amazing night, an amazing day, it's been an incredible period of time in our country history — in our country's history — it's has been said in so many ways — but i think it's going to be an inspiring because we're gonna do something that frankly no one has been able to do for a long time. is good to have you both, stefanie, miles. the question now, about nikki haley, is the question of if she was voting for her, or as a protest against donald trump. i voting for her, or as a protest against donald trump.- voting for her, or as a protest against donald trump. i think we saw against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both- — against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both. the _ against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both. the manner— against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both. the manner to - against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both. the manner to how- against donald trump. i think we saw a bit of both. the manner to how we | a bit of both. the manner to how we saw the contested vote play out with biden, but i think, nikki haley had

a lot of supporters, upwards of one third of the electorate did not vote to support donald trump in the republican primaries, and nikki haley definitely has a name, when it comes to those who consider themselves true conservatives of the republican party. i think it was an excellent point today, for president by to say, hey, listen, i am your quy' by to say, hey, listen, i am your guy, i welcome any nikki haley supporters, and it was also very telling for her to say that donald trump, former president, needs to earn her vote and earned a votes of those who support her as well. you know the republican pile —— party, miles, those people who don't feel attached, but what is her future now? in the context of what happened yesterday? i now? in the context of what happened esterda ? ~ . , , yesterday? i think nikki haley is t in: to yesterday? i think nikki haley is trying to figure _ yesterday? i think nikki haley is trying to figure that _ yesterday? i think nikki haley is trying to figure that out - yesterday? i think nikki haley is trying to figure that out right - yesterday? i think nikki haley is l trying to figure that out right now. she was_ trying to figure that out right now. she was banking on the fact that opposing —

she was banking on the fact that opposing donald trump would put on the right— opposing donald trump would put on the right side of history, and of course, — the right side of history, and of course, keep in mind this is a nikki haley— course, keep in mind this is a nikki haley who— course, keep in mind this is a nikki haley who has worked for donald trump _ haley who has worked for donald trump. she has hopes by going into his administration, she would stay with the _ his administration, she would stay with the republican party and now she finds — with the republican party and now she finds herself far outside of the current— she finds herself far outside of the current very moderate republican partx _ current very moderate republican partx i_ current very moderate republican party. i think you could even tell in her— party. i think you could even tell in her speech, which was somewhat muted _ in her speech, which was somewhat muted and — in her speech, which was somewhat muted and understatement —— understated, that she was trying to walk along, trying to work out if she could — walk along, trying to work out if she could have a party that is still dominated — she could have a party that is still dominated by donald trump. what is really— dominated by donald trump. what is really surprising is the unthinkable, to many people, donald trump _ unthinkable, to many people, donald trump being the nominee again, is now trump being the nominee again, is how the _ trump being the nominee again, is now the inevitable. the man who, for the first— now the inevitable. the man who, for the first time — now the inevitable. the man who, for the first time in american history, opposed _ the first time in american history, opposed the transfer of power, has been _ opposed the transfer of power, has been slapped with loads of indictments, no one thought he would -et indictments, no one thought he would get to— indictments, no one thought he would get to this _ indictments, no one thought he would get to this point, as strong as he is and _ get to this point, as strong as he is and yet. — get to this point, as strong as he is and yet, he is. so think you see even _ is and yet, he is. so think you see even that— is and yet, he is. so think you see even that shock on it nikki haley's face _ even that shock on it nikki haley's face i_ even that shock on it nikki haley's face. ~ ., even that shock on it nikki haley's face. ~' ., ~ , even that shock on it nikki haley's face. ~ ., ~ , even that shock on it nikki haley's

face. ~'., ~ ., , face. i know, miles, you have been frontin: a face. i know, miles, you have been fronting a third _ face. i know, miles, you have been fronting a third wave _ face. i know, miles, you have been fronting a third wave movement, . face. i know, miles, you have been i fronting a third wave movement, but are you closely connected with the note labels group" would nikki haley be a potential for that? note labels group" would nikki haley be a potentialfor that? —— note labels group? be a potentialfor that? -- note labels grow?— be a potentialfor that? -- note labels group? be a potentialfor that? -- note labels u-rou?�* ., . labels group? i'm not connected with that, but i'm — labels group? i'm not connected with that, but i'm probably— labels group? i'm not connected with that, but i'm probably one _ labels group? i'm not connected with that, but i'm probably one of - labels group? i'm not connected with that, but i'm probably one of those l that, but i'm probably one of those who think— that, but i'm probably one of those who think that the numbers don't lie, who think that the numbers don't lie. and _ who think that the numbers don't lie. and if— who think that the numbers don't lie, and if there is a third—party party— lie, and if there is a third—party party movement creditably going to spoil the _ party movement creditably going to spoil the election in a donald trump's _ spoil the election in a donald trump's favour. a i do think that nikki _ trump's favour. a i do think that nikki haley's leaving the door open ever so— nikki haley's leaving the door open ever so slightly for that. we saw the same — ever so slightly for that. we saw the same thing from chris christie, when _ the same thing from chris christie, when a _ the same thing from chris christie, when 6 chris— the same thing from chris christie, when a chris christie bowed out, he was asked _ when a chris christie bowed out, he was asked if— when a chris christie bowed out, he was asked if he would consider being on a third _ was asked if he would consider being on a third party tickets, he did not say no _ on a third party tickets, he did not say no he — on a third party tickets, he did not say no. he said he would like. nikki haley— say no. he said he would like. nikki haiev was _ say no. he said he would like. nikki haley was asked this days ago and she did _ haley was asked this days ago and she did not say no. she bought a little _ she did not say no. she bought a little cold — she did not say no. she bought a little cold water on it, which she has to, — little cold water on it, which she has to, and _ little cold water on it, which she has to, and she said she was running a republican, but again, she did not say no _ a republican, but again, she did not say no i_ a republican, but again, she did not say no. i think there is a possibility that she is flirting with— possibility that she is flirting with that, and if she does go that

route, _ with that, and if she does go that route, it — with that, and if she does go that route, it is — with that, and if she does go that route, it is most definitely the end of her— route, it is most definitely the end of her career in the republican partv — of her career in the republican partv |— of her career in the republican .a _ , ., of her career in the republican -a . , ., ., of her career in the republican party. i 'ust want to bring you a line of party. ijust want to bring you a line of breaking _ party. ijust want to bring you a line of breaking news, - party. ijust want to bring you a | line of breaking news, stefanie, which might interest you. it is from donald trump social. he says, it is important for the good of our country, thatjoe biden and i debate issues that are so to america and american people. therefore, i'm calling for debates, any time, anywhere, anyplace. the debates can be run by the corrupt dnc, or their subsidiary, the commission on presidential debates. i look forward to receiving a response, thank you for your attention to this matter. how about that?! several months ago, he said he did not want to take part in debates again, he did not take part in primary debates, so what is behind this? this part in primary debates, so what is behind this?— behind this? this man knows theatrics — behind this? this man knows theatrics. he _ behind this? this man knows theatrics. he knows - behind this? this man knows theatrics. he knows what - behind this? this man knows| theatrics. he knows what will behind this? this man knows - theatrics. he knows what will get attention. he went almost the entire primary season without participating in any debates, and having willie this one—man show whenever he was

able to have as one—on—one interviews on cnn. and we do want to see not theatrics, but we want to see not theatrics, but we want to see president biden and former president trump debating. i think thatis president trump debating. i think that is healthy for any presidential candidates now. will they be able to be civil enough to actually talk about issues that americans care about? i don't know. but this doesn't surprise me today, after super tuesday that he would put that message out. that super tuesday that he would put that message out-— message out. that will be some event, miles. _ message out. that will be some event, miles. do _ message out. that will be some event, miles. do you _ message out. that will be some event, miles. do you think- message out. that will be some i event, miles. do you think behind it? -- event, miles. do you think behind it? —— what do you think is behind it? -- what do you think is behind it? -- what do you think is behind it? ., , , ., it? the former president is of the view, that — it? the former president is of the view, that when _ it? the former president is of the view, that when he _ it? the former president is of the view, that when he is _ it? the former president is of the view, that when he is in - it? the former president is of the view, that when he is in the - it? the former president is of the | view, that when he is in the arena with another candidate, that he sucks _ with another candidate, that he sucks up— with another candidate, that he sucks up the oxygen, that he remembers this all too well with the debates— remembers this all too well with the debates with hillary clinton, where it wasn't— debates with hillary clinton, where it wasn't a — debates with hillary clinton, where it wasn't a debate between two reasonable people, it was a debate between _ reasonable people, it was a debate between a — reasonable people, it was a debate between a hyper partisan and someone who was— between a hyper partisan and someone who was playing by the old rules of

american _ who was playing by the old rules of american politics. he perceives that he comes— american politics. he perceives that he comes out looking stronger and i think— he comes out looking stronger and i think that _ he comes out looking stronger and i think that is — he comes out looking stronger and i think that is why he's throwing the gauntlet _ think that is why he's throwing the gauntlet down in this case. joe biden— gauntlet down in this case. joe biden will face a test here. if he engages — biden will face a test here. if he engages in those, can he win over those _ engages in those, can he win over those nikki — engages in those, can he win over those nikki haley voters? and he brought— those nikki haley voters? and he brought in— those nikki haley voters? and he brought in an independent coalition to do— brought in an independent coalition to do enough what he did in 2020 and at the _ to do enough what he did in 2020 and at the time? — to do enough what he did in 2020 and at the time? a coalition to be donald — at the time? a coalition to be donald trump?— at the time? a coalition to be donald trum - ? ., . ., , donald trump? there are certainly risks, donald trump? there are certainly risks. though. _ donald trump? there are certainly risks, though, stefanie? _ donald trump? there are certainly i risks, though, stefanie? remember, standby, stand ready, and i understand from mar—a—lago, the campaign team have been trying to get him to tone down some of the speeches. how do they keep him on the street and now, with a one—hour debate? and i think they know him, but that is the job to try your luck. but that is the “0b to try your luck. , ., ., , , ., luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping- — luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping- now — luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping. now that _ luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping. now that he _ luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping. now that he is - luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping. now that he is his - luck. there is no tapping him down. -- tamping. now that he is his own|

—— tamping. now that he is his own nominee for the republican party, he has had this big comeback that has been talking him —— talking about the past three years. i think it is healthy to have debate, but is not healthy to have debate, but is not healthy for to have contentious conversation is going to be filled —— filled with theatrics. we know thatjoe biden can go there as well. so i think, if anything, it is really going to also be on a good moderating, good questions. we had some problems in the past with the moderators not upholding their duties and maintaining decorum. so, i think we will see these one—on—one conversations with them both, probably sooner than we think. i’m probably sooner than we think. i'm still puzzling over the white now, though? we are eight months out, this is an issue that could be sorted out in due course, miles, but ijust wonder if, internally, they have been looking at these poll numbers? we will show you a graphical little later in the

programme, but there is an average of 30 and one third of the vote —— there is an average of one third of there is an average of one third of the vote which is not therefore donald trump. do they need to shift the dial? i donald trump. do they need to shift the dial? ., �* ., , the dial? i don't mean this facetiously, _ the dial? i don't mean this facetiously, but _ the dial? i don't mean this facetiously, but there - the dial? i don't mean this facetiously, but there is i the dial? i don't mean this. facetiously, but there is not the dial? i don't mean this i facetiously, but there is not a the dial? i don't mean this - facetiously, but there is not a lot of sophisticated thinking, especially involving numbers, that happens _ especially involving numbers, that happens in donald trump's orbit. is it as someone who spent time with him in _ it as someone who spent time with him in the — it as someone who spent time with him in the oval office, and on air force _ him in the oval office, and on air force one. — him in the oval office, and on air force one, and in the white house situation when he makes to situations like this, it is not based — situations like this, it is not based on _ situations like this, it is not based on a lot of careful analysis in a strategy, but rather based on his gut~ _ in a strategy, but rather based on his gut~ i— in a strategy, but rather based on his gut. i suspect he felt like in the past — his gut. i suspect he felt like in the past couple of days, the win was at his— the past couple of days, the win was at his back— the past couple of days, the win was at his back and absolutely decimating his rivals of the republican primary, so he wanted to take that _ republican primary, so he wanted to take that influence into the general election, and that is why he has done _ election, and that is why he has done this — election, and that is why he has done this. it's probably a high—risk move _ done this. it's probably a high—risk move that — done this. it's probably a high—risk move that advises around him, don't want him _ move that advises around him, don't want him to— move that advises around him, don't want him to be out there making out, but donald _ want him to be out there making out, but donald trump doesn't think a -aff but donald trump doesn't think a gaff is— but donald trump doesn't think a gaff is a — but donald trump doesn't think a gaff is a. he thinks when he talks

he is _ gaff is a. he thinks when he talks he is speaking for the american people. — he is speaking for the american people, and seeing things that they wouldn't _ people, and seeing things that they wouldn't say out loud. that is his perspective, and that is why he is inclined _ perspective, and that is why he is inclined to— perspective, and that is why he is inclined to shoot from the hip. what nikki haley does _ inclined to shoot from the hip. what nikki haley does in _ inclined to shoot from the hip. wrist nikki haley does in the next inclined to shoot from the hip. ltdrisgt nikki haley does in the next few weeks and months will really matter to this voting block that he wants his hands on. ijust wonder whether there is any room for getting closer, after she said at the end of her campaign. listen to what she said just the other day in texas. we lost in 2018. we lost in 2020. we lost in 2022. but look, two weeks ago, republicans lost the vote on mayorkas. they lost a vote on israel. the rnc chair lost herjob, and donald trump's fingerprints were on all of it. how much more losing do we have to do before we realise maybe donald trump is the problem? cheering. what she had to say, then donald trump went on a radio show and said

this about nikki haley. for 2.5 years, she said, "i will never, ever run against this president, he was the greatest president in my lifetime, he was a great president i will never run", and that went on for a couple of years and that was nice, and i thought it was respectful, very nice, and then she's gone crazy, and then she's become really angry. yeah... !i yeah... ! ican't see yeah... ! i can't see a way back. the trouble for nikki haley, though, stefanie, is if you want to play, be a presidential candidate in the future we have to play within the balance of the party because that is where the donors are. in some respects, when she looked like she will endorse donald trump, maybe thatis will endorse donald trump, maybe that is the only way back in. whether she likes it or not. find whether she likes it or not. and here is the _ whether she likes it or not. and here is the thing, _ whether she likes it or not. fific here is the thing, you have whether she likes it or not. elic here is the thing, you have party leaders just recently, mcconnell, endorsed trump after all the bad blood that is between them, you have those which are within the republican party backing track. for

nikki haley, ithink republican party backing track. for nikki haley, i think while she does have two consider the career that she wants, to come out of this, does she wants, to come out of this, does she wants, to come out of this, does she want to be a leader within a public —— party? because you want to join a third party because i can actually think she does the latter. but this is also about her supporters, and where do her supporters, and where do her supporters go next. who do they think is going to uphold on the issues that they care most about? is going to be donald trump? he has also said he does not want nikki haley's donors. injanuary, he made a long speech where he said he did not want them. it is unheard of in politics. so this is more thanjust about me —— nikki haley, money, and considering them themselves real staunch conservatives. does considering them themselves real staunch conservatives.— staunch conservatives. does her endorsement — staunch conservatives. does her endorsement make _ staunch conservatives. does her endorsement make a _ staunch conservatives. does her| endorsement make a difference? staunch conservatives. does her - endorsement make a difference? this has been the problem within the republican party, miles, when you look at mitch mcconnell, mccarthy, they have all anthony ascertain that

they have all anthony ascertain that they wouldn't, and that is really they wouldn't, and that is really the problem. —— they have all bent the problem. —— they have all bent the knee. i the problem. -- they have all bent the knee. ~ , ., , the knee. i think, if she does endorse it — the knee. i think, if she does endorse it does _ the knee. i think, if she does endorse it does matter, - the knee. i think, if she does . endorse it does matter, because the knee. i think, if she does - endorse it does matter, because it shows— endorse it does matter, because it shows that — endorse it does matter, because it shows that he has total control over this partv _ shows that he has total control over this party. you stole my point, because — this party. you stole my point, because what i was going to say, is look at _ because what i was going to say, is look at past — because what i was going to say, is look at past examples of this. lindsey— look at past examples of this. lindsey graham said trump was eight kooki _ lindsey graham said trump was eight kook, and _ lindsey graham said trump was eight kook, and he was unfit for office. and rick— kook, and he was unfit for office. and rick parry, who was governor of tean, _ and rick parry, who was governor of texas, said — and rick parry, who was governor of texas, said trump was a cancer on a conservatism — texas, said trump was a cancer on a conservatism. he got behind trump and became his secretary of energy. a congressman from south carolina said trump— a congressman from south carolina said trump was one of the most dangerous— said trump was one of the most dangerous people in the history of the republican party, to that effect, — the republican party, to that effect, but he came donald trump's chief of— effect, but he came donald trump's chief of staff. trump loves those moments — chief of staff. trump loves those moments where his opponents got down on their— moments where his opponents got down on their bended knee, and they come to his _ on their bended knee, and they come to his side _ on their bended knee, and they come to his side. when it looks like nikki — to his side. when it looks like nikki haley does not have a shot in's universe, but if he sees an

opportunity— in's universe, but if he sees an opportunity to get into that universe, he will happily bring her into his _ universe, he will happily bring her into his coalition and still disrespects her nonetheless. that is his wav~ _ disrespects her nonetheless. that is his wa . ., , ., ., his way. you definitely want to debate joe _ his way. you definitely want to debate joe biden. _ his way. you definitely want to debate joe biden. if _ his way. you definitely want to debate joe biden. if you - his way. you definitely want to debate joe biden. if you are i debatejoe biden. if you are going to recommend a moderator... you can recommend me, miles. you to recommend a moderator... you can recommend me, miles.— recommend me, miles. you can take the first one. — recommend me, miles. you can take the first one, i'll— recommend me, miles. you can take the first one, i'll take _ recommend me, miles. you can take the first one, i'll take the _ recommend me, miles. you can take the first one, i'll take the second - the first one, i'll take the second one! _ around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. let's look at some other stories making news. judges in england and wales have agreed a plan to end the worst delays on rape cases coming to trial. 18! trials that have been delayed more than two years, will now have to go before a jury by the end ofjuly. lord justice edis, thejudge in charge of the plan, says victims have been facing unacceptable delays. a majorfire near southampton's st mary's stadium has resulted in their championship match

against preston being called off. a smoke plume coming from industrial units on marine parade could be seen from miles around. one person has been treated for the effects of breathing in smoke. junior doctors in northern ireland are taking strike action over pay for the first time today. the british medical association says the deal put to them was the minimum junior doctors could have been offered. the department of health in northern ireland said the proposals amounted to an average pay increase of more than 9%. you're live with bbc news i want to talk about joe biden's performance in the super tuesday states. you will have heard me say on this programme before that president biden has a problem with his base. and certainly there are those in michigan, and again in minnesota, last night, who don't like his policy towards gaza. but this might suprise you.

we have compared his performance as an incumbent last night, with president obama's performance as an incumbent in 2012. and in fact biden does as well or even better in six of the nine states we looked at. his winning margins were greater than 80% in all but one. stefa nie stefanie a very noisy of minority of people who don't want to commit to joe biden in lesotho, next to in colorado, but across the board last night, he performed pretty well. yes, he actually had a really good night. a lot of the democrats had good night last night. this uncontested vote, that is what we are calling it, it really is a protest vote in a lot of ways, around the biden harris administration of what is happening in gaza. that seems like a small minority voice but it is a growing issue, especially among the base

voters that biden needs to win. young voters, voters of colour, and we see him in battle states like michigan, this is a huge issue. it is definitely something that they need to get their arms around. we heard kamala harris saying a couple of days ago that there needs to be an immediate ceasefire. there was a huge step for them to make. but all in all, he had a good night. and the campaign has to get better, though, at telling their achievements. what you will continuously hit my thinkm is that people do not not definite people do not know enough of what this demonstration has done to make their lives better, for their pocket and what is happening in our country. then it's a real challenge that the campaign has. it can't be ignored, miles, the that the campaign has. it can't be ignored. miles.— that the campaign has. it can't be ignored, miles, the votes he won in 2020 we look _ ignored, miles, the votes he won in 2020 we look at _ ignored, miles, the votes he won in 2020 we look at the _ ignored, miles, the votes he won in 2020 we look at the other - ignored, miles, the votes he won in 2020 we look at the other states, l 2020 we look at the other states, the margin is 10,000,

2020 we look at the other states, the margin is10,000, 15,000 2020 we look at the other states, the margin is 10,000, 15,000 in those six or seven swing states. he has to pay attention to that. i'm not making the point that his coalition is together, that there are any problems, but he would be encouraged, i think, are any problems, but he would be encouraged, ithink, by are any problems, but he would be encouraged, i think, by the scale of these results last night. you were muted, miles. sorry, you have to have _ you were muted, miles. sorry, you have to have your _ you were muted, miles. sorry, you have to have your basic— you were muted, miles. sorry, you have to have your basic excited - you were muted, miles. sorry, you have to have your basic excited if i have to have your basic excited if you want — have to have your basic excited if you want to — have to have your basic excited if you want to win, because the coalition— you want to win, because the coalition you put together, needs to be beyond _ coalition you put together, needs to be beyond that base. that is the problem — be beyond that base. that is the problem right now, if you are in the biden— problem right now, if you are in the biden harris— problem right now, if you are in the biden harris team, and you are looking — biden harris team, and you are looking at— biden harris team, and you are looking at these numbers could not 'ust looking at these numbers could not just that _ looking at these numbers could not just that protest, the uncommitted voters _ just that protest, the uncommitted voters that is also all of the poll after _ voters that is also all of the poll after poll — voters that is also all of the poll after poll of the president's supporters, they are not as animated this side, _ supporters, they are not as animated this side, we — supporters, they are not as animated this side, we saw thatjust the other— this side, we saw thatjust the other day, _ this side, we saw thatjust the other day, with data showing that 97% of _ other day, with data showing that 97% of trump voters are fired up to vote for— 97% of trump voters are fired up to vote for him — 97% of trump voters are fired up to vote for him again, and the president had numbers that were in

the low— president had numbers that were in the low 805. this is a blinking red li-ht the low 805. this is a blinking red light for— the low 805. this is a blinking red light for them, especially because, again. _ light for them, especially because, again. in— light for them, especially because, again, in 2020, biden was able to win because he cobbled together independent and even some of trump voters _ independent and even some of trump voters who— independent and even some of trump voters who defected. they are worried — voters who defected. they are worried about getting either of those — worried about getting either of those categories back into the voting — those categories back into the voting booth, pulling the lever for joe biden— voting booth, pulling the lever for joe biden 5ci. you voting booth, pulling the lever for joe iaiden sci-— voting booth, pulling the lever for joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs _ joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs poll _ joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs poll about _ joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs poll about who - joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs poll about who has i joe biden sci. you are right, there another cbs poll about who has a | another cbs poll about who has a vision for the country, stefanie, 50-50 vision for the country, stefanie, 50—50 for biden, but trump is higher. it is so crucially important, this, which will talk about more tomorrow. you have to set “p about more tomorrow. you have to set up that mission, convince people that will make their lives better. —— he has to set that up. yes that will make their lives better. -- he has to set that up. yes remind --eole of -- he has to set that up. yes remind people of what _ -- he has to set that up. yes remind people of what he — -- he has to set that up. yes remind people of what he has _ -- he has to set that up. yes remind people of what he has done. - -- he has to set that up. yes remind people of what he has done. we - -- he has to set that up. yes remind| people of what he has done. we can't forget that a lot of his administration was during overnight. that had a profound effect on how people view politics, how they view their lives, and what has come out of that covid time, that we had, so, yes, they need to remind folks, and

he also asked the maccas to remind folks... as mentioned earlier, these 30 parts definite third—party candidates, the hurtjoe biden. —— they had. any amount of votes that are shaved off, he needs that independent votes, he needs those base voters to come in, heavy and strong. anything that shaves away at that, it hurtjoe biden's chances because he already won in a lot of states, only in the margins. i think it would be — states, only in the margins. i think it would be breathing _ states, only in the margins. i think it would be breathing a _ states, only in the margins. i think it would be breathing a sigh - states, only in the margins. i think it would be breathing a sigh of- it would be breathing a sigh of relief, in west virginia, if it is a sign that he is not going to run as a third candidate. i think your point on the blinking red lights for biden, but i said, miles, just pointing out some of the that donald trump has, within his base as well. this is from nbc, there a substantial portion of it as it did support nikki haley, that would say that they can't guarantee they would

vote for trump in 202a. this is the breakdown in virginia, north carolina, and california. these are democrat states —— california is a democrat states —— california is a democrat state. the first two are very much in play. democrat state. the first two are very much in play-— very much in play. very much in -la . i very much in play. very much in plav- i think _ very much in play. very much in play. i think those are _ very much in play. very much in play. i think those are the - play. i think those are the operative word5, because what you don't _ operative word5, because what you don't see _ operative word5, because what you don't see get with those voter5 i5, don't see get with those voter5 is, are they— don't see get with those voter5 is, are they willing to cross the line and vote — are they willing to cross the line and vote for a democrat? you and i have _ and vote for a democrat? you and i have talked — and vote for a democrat? you and i have talked about this a lot, in analysing — have talked about this a lot, in analysing the 2020 election. we had analy5ing the 2020 election. we had a pretty— analysing the 2020 election. we had a pretty 5ub5tantial analysing the 2020 election. we had a pretty substantial number of people — a pretty substantial number of people who in 2020 voted for a democrat — people who in 2020 voted for a democrat for the first time in their lives _ democrat for the first time in their lives. around 5ix democrat for the first time in their lives. around six or 7% of live5. around six or 7% of republicans in the key 5wing live5. around six or 7% of republicans in the key swing states that joe _ republicans in the key swing states thatjoe biden one where people who had actually been trump voter5 thatjoe biden one where people who had actually been trump voters in 2016, _ had actually been trump voters in 2016, converting those people created — 2016, converting those people created a victory margin. what we're seeing _ created a victory margin. what we're seeing here — created a victory margin. what we're seeing here those numbers is in is 5eeing here those numbers is in is still possible forjoe biden. there is enough — still possible forjoe biden. there is enough republicans who aren't going _ is enough republicans who aren't going to — is enough republicans who aren't going to commit to supporting donald

trump, _ going to commit to supporting donald trump, and _ going to commit to supporting donald trump, and biden has got to go recruit— trump, and biden has got to go recruit from that pool. i would say it is one _ recruit from that pool. i would say it is one of — recruit from that pool. i would say it is one of the most important demographics for him in 2024. stefanie — demographics for him in 2024. stefanie and miles, 5taying demographics for him in 2024. stefanie and miles, staying on side. on the other side of the break, we will talk to the man who took american samoa. hello there. wednesday started off with quite extensive mist and fog, some of which was dense. this weather watcher picture shows the low cloud and fog trapped underneath what we call a temperature inversion with clear blue, sunny skies above. but on the whole, west was best for sunshine. turned out to be a lovely day here in the isle of arran. now, during this evening and overnight, we are, i think, going to see fog patches reform. some of that will become dense, visibility down to 100 metres, so it might be worth allowing a little bit of extra time for any morning travel you might have into thursday morning. there'll be a few patches of rural frost around as well, so mist and fog to start the day, that should tend to lift and clear. then we're looking at a lot of dry weather.

ok, there could be one or two showers for england and wales, but hardly any of these. so, the vast majority of us having a dry day with the best of the sunshine, likely once again across western areas of the uk. temperatures by and large close to average for the time of year, but a little below average for east scotland and northeast england given the onshore winds coming across the chilly north sea. the high pressure to our northeast, low pressure to our southwest got a bit closer on friday, and so it's going to get a little bit windier. now, on the whole, it's going to be a quieter day, less mist and fog to start off the day. with the winds coming in from an easterly direction, the uk's only named wind, the helm wind will be blowing across great cross fell into cumbria and over into the west of high ground, it will be quite a gusty day with gusts reaching into the 40s, maybe low 50s of miles an hour. it'll continue to be quite chilly for east scotland and northeast england. on into the weekend,

the low pressure to our south starts to throw bands of rain northwards across the uk, so there will be rain at times — won't be raining all weekend, butjust rain at times. saturday sees the first band of rain then push across england and wales reach northern ireland. late in the day, eastern scotland will have frequent showers so be quite a wet day for the eastern mountains and the grampians. probably the best ot the dry and bright weather will be across western scotland where we should stay with some sunny spells. temperatures for many of us, quite close to average. sunday sees some further outbreaks of rain moving generally northwards and westwards across the uk, perhaps something a bit driver and brighter at times working in towards the south and east and temperatures still by and large close to average, —— drier, but a bit below for east scotland and northeast england. bye for now.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. eyes onjoe biden as he gears up for his state of the union speech, with key policy issues on the agenda. welcome back. so there wasjoe biden cruising to a clean sweep of the primaries this super tuesday when suddenly out of nowhere came a political earthquake in american samoa. you know, the territories vote in primaries, but not in general elections here.

so no word from the biden campaign on their reaction to this. devastating 11—vote loss in american samoa. imean, it'5... ..it'5 incredible. it does make him the first i incumbent president to lose a contested primary, _ though, 5incejimmy carter, so... 15 that true? i mean, i need to double check that because thi5ju5t happened... - i didn't mean to challenge it. i totally think that's right. i'm 56% sure that is accurate. it's probably true. audie, are you doing a deep dive onjason palmer right now? apparently i need to get on it, so everyone get on the wiki5 because we've got some research to do. we don't need wikipedia, we know exactly who jason palmer is. he was on this very programme back in november promising to take the fight to the incumbent president, and didn't hejust. it may be a small blip forjoe biden, but by our reckoning it is the first time an incumbent president has lost a primary since jimmy carter lost states to ted kennedy in 1980. and i am pleased he is back with us on the programme fresh

from his triumph in pago pago. jason palmer, good evening, and many congratulations.