and say, it is very much picked and chosen to appeal to the various different parties. we chosen to appeal to the various different parties.— chosen to appeal to the various different parties. we will watch and wait, thank different parties. we will watch and wait. thank you _ different parties. we will watch and wait, thank you for _ different parties. we will watch and wait, thank you for now, _ different parties. we will watch and wait, thank you for now, our - wait, thank you for now, our political correspondent leila nathoo with the details of what we may expect to hear. 12.30 is when the chancellor is due to take to his feet to deliver that autumn statement. there was the room for manoeuvre mentioned there that the chancellor has two announced various changes to tax and changes. now more with andy verity. andy, give us your assessment. you have been crunching the numbers, in your report we saw how we came to those calculations. give us your sense of whether the chancellor has much room to manoeuvre and what that freedom gives him anything to deliver a bit of a gift before a general election. there is two things here, one hand, the chancellor's freedom to do

things economically, there is always huge scope to cut or raise taxes, or spending, and then there is what his room for manoeuvre is within his self—imposed targets. we must be clear on this. a government's finances are completely unlike a household finance. we live in a currency where the government issues currency, we cannot do that, ferns cannot do that, whereas the government issues a currency and has a lot more freedom than us. not many of us have a money printing press in our front rooms. of us have a money printing press in ourfront rooms. but of us have a money printing press in our front rooms. but the chancellor must calculate his own self—imposed targets so wriggle room is against those, and those are a political judgment. they are based on what the government thinks the markets will wear. just like in the mini budget wear. just like in the mini budget we had last year, there seemed to be no constraints on what the government will blow on tax cuts,

for example, so the markets will react badly. the real wiggle room in this, we are unlikely to see a cut in national insurance.— this, we are unlikely to see a cut in national insurance. while we are talkin: , in national insurance. while we are talking. we — in national insurance. while we are talking, we sought _ in national insurance. while we are talking, we sought the _ in national insurance. while we are talking, we sought the chancellor i talking, we sought the chancellor leaving number 11 and make his way to westminster, he will be in the commons outlining all the details of tax and spending plans for the year ahead in the autumn statement. we will continue our conversation. the chancellor has to do a balancing act here because there are so many competing pressures. he needs to keep an ion inflation so does not want to stoke inflation again just as it... he needs to placate backbenchers, he must take and i on economic growth and he also has to deliver something that will win voters back to the conservative party, they are trailing in the

polls. a lot of competing interests. hard to know what he can offer to deliver all of those needs right now. ., , ., ., deliver all of those needs right now. ., , ., now. one thing that is good for him in a way is — now. one thing that is good for him in a way is that _ now. one thing that is good for him in a way is that the _ now. one thing that is good for him in a way is that the amount - now. one thing that is good for him in a way is that the amount of - in a way is that the amount of spending the office for budget responsibility thought the government had been doing back in march has turned out to be a lot less, partly because energy bills came down so sharply, so the government was spending a smaller amount than expected subsidising those. they will be slightly better economic growth than the government was expecting, meaning more tax receipts. the other reason he can offer some tax—cut or the talk that he will cut national insurance is because we have been paying so much of it. if he does cut national insurance, that will be our money we are getting back, because that its fiscal drag. if you hold the threshold above which people pay tax

and freeze it and it does not go above inflation, and more of people's wagers are subject to tax. it is that windfall government has seen the benefit of over the last 12 months. the office for budget responsibility will probably reflect that and it will seem like the government has more scope within its target to do more to boost the economy, for example, by handing some of what it has taken off us back through things like cut in national insurance. but if there is a downgrade in economic growth in the next year, that means less tax money rolling in. if there is less economic growth, that means less vat and income tax coming in and that gives the chance a lot less scope. there will be some moves to boost consumer confidence and even boost

the government's popularity in the 12 months ahead of when it has to hold another general election. we will let you go and crunch those numbers. we will talk to you later in the day. got a sense of what those announcements mean. we will answer your questions later today in answer your questions later today in a special edition of your questions answered so send them in in the usual ways. answered so send them in in the usualways. now answered so send them in in the usual ways. now the founder of small business britain, michelle, good to have you with us. 5.5 million small firms in this country, what do they want to hear on the chancellor today? want to hear on the chancellor toda ? ~ . . ~ want to hear on the chancellor toda ?~ ., ., ~ ., want to hear on the chancellor toda ? ~ ., ., ~ ., ., today? we have talked about extra headroom. today? we have talked about extra headroom- it _ today? we have talked about extra headroom. it is _ today? we have talked about extra headroom. it is about _ today? we have talked about extra headroom. it is about how - today? we have talked about extra headroom. it is about how much i today? we have talked about extra headroom. it is about how much of that can go to small businesses, and there are a number of things that are at the top of my list, and we know from our research, it is 76% looking for more government support. top of the list of course is that

75% help with business rates and thatis 75% help with business rates and that is helping premises, retail, hospitality. that is due to end in april next year and is linked to inflation, so businesses are looking at a bit of a cliff edge, a big cost next april that we would like to see extended, that will make a difference to a lot of businesses. we have had a little bit already on the impact on late payments. whisperings on things that will be announced, difficult to see that with regulations but we would legacy leadership —— we would like to see leadership —— we would like to see leadership on this. relief on late payment would be great. we have had in the last day or so about tax relief for investments for businesses, which is great. the challenge of course with that is you need to finance to invest and one thing we hear repeatedly from small

businesses is the challenge to get finance to grow, scale up finance. government backed start—up loans had been incredibly successful. we have seen 100,000 loans go out but we want to seascape up loans. small scale government backed loans for businesses to make those investments and start growing. we are talking a lot about growth, how can we help those small businesses to grow? and i think that is what small businesses would love to hear today. let us get your thoughts on a couple of things we do know will be in this autumn statement because a lot is just speculation until we hear from the chancellor, we know a boost to the chancellor, we know a boost to the minimal wage, the national living wage, rising by more than £1, to £11 lbs —— living wage, rising by more than £1, to £11 lbs -- £11 living wage, rising by more than £1, to £11 lbs —— £11 four per hour. 0ne to £11 lbs —— £11 four per hour. one would assume it adds to their cost, doesn't it? j~ ., ., ., .,

doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff. so bear— doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so bear that _ doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so bear that in _ doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so bear that in mind. - doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so bear that in mind. lots. doesn't it? 4.8 million do not have staff, so bear that in mind. lots of| staff, so bear that in mind. lots of small businesses do have staff, most art micro businesses so will have less than ten employees. 0ne art micro businesses so will have less than ten employees. one thing we hear a lot from small businesses is their staff are often their family, and they care about them and they know how employees have been affected by costs and inflation going up and that is close to their hearts. it is a mixed message. yes, costs are going up in a world where we have seen costs go up across the board. and we are talking about inflation being half, it means the costs are going up slower, it does not mean they are going down for small businesses. but it tends to be in our experience one of the costs that small businesses do not rail against so much because they recognise how important it is to look after their staff. you recognise how important it is to look after their staff.— look after their staff. you are riaht, look after their staff. you are right. and — look after their staff. you are right. and it _ look after their staff. you are right, and it is _

look after their staff. you are right, and it is worth - look after their staff. you are right, and it is worth making | look after their staff. you are - right, and it is worth making that point about inflation falling but it still means prices are rising but less quickly. michelle, your thoughts on a cut potentially in national insurance? would not have all the details on whether it is the threshold or the headline rate of that will be cut, that will help bring costs down for businesses and a boost for employees? it bring costs down for businesses and a boost for employees?— bring costs down for businesses and a boost for employees? it depends on whether it is — a boost for employees? it depends on whether it is employee _ a boost for employees? it depends on whether it is employee contributions l whether it is employee contributions going up. if it is employee contributions, it does not affect small businesses, but if staff are happy, brilliant. if it is employer contributions, brilliant, and small businesses would appreciate that, the helping hand at recognising the role they play as massive employers. we would love to see a reduction in employer national insurance, for sure. . ~'

employer national insurance, for sure. ., a . sure. thank you, michelle. whether there will be — sure. thank you, michelle. whether there will be anything _ sure. thank you, michelle. whether there will be anything in _ sure. thank you, michelle. whether there will be anything in that - there will be anything in that budget to give a bit of a boost to those 5.5 million small businesses. with me in westminster is the general secretary of the tuc. good to have you with us. we are starting to have you with us. we are starting to get a few details, designed, one would assume, to get more support for the conservatives going into a general election. will it be enough? i do not think it will be enough. there will be gimmicks, but not a long—term plan to get the economy growing, people's wages growing and a plan to rebuild is public services. i'm not surprised because the conservatives have been in power for 13 years and if they had the answers, we would have heard about them before today. the answers, we would have heard about them before today.— them before today. the prime minister and _ them before today. the prime minister and chancellor - them before today. the prime minister and chancellor both | them before today. the prime - minister and chancellor both saying this is an autumn statement designed to reward hard work. those in work

and working should be better off than those who are simply choosing to claim benefit. that is a step in the right direction, isn't it? that does not reflect _ the right direction, isn't it? that does not reflect the _ the right direction, isn't it? t�*isgt does not reflect the reality out there. if they had accepted the recommendations from employers and unions,... wages are not going up. 70% of kids in poverty have at least one parent working and i do not like the language of dividing widening people and those who are reliant on benefits and tax credits. we know there is a real issue, a crisis in our health service, for example, and i do not think we have heard anything about support for public services, local councils. this is a government long on rhetoric and short on delivering. fine government long on rhetoric and short on delivering.— short on delivering. one of the thins he short on delivering. one of the things he has _ short on delivering. one of the things he has focused - short on delivering. one of the things he has focused on - short on delivering. one of the things he has focused on is - short on delivering. one of thej things he has focused on is the

fiscal drag, more of us being dragged in tax categories because of the threshold is not changing. that proves to be a difficult thing to work, and that is why it is such a problem. why would you take on extra work to pay more tax? mat; problem. why would you take on extra work to pay more tax?— work to pay more tax? way incentives work to pay more tax? way incentives work is to get — work to pay more tax? way incentives work is to get paid — work to pay more tax? way incentives work is to get paid rising _ work to pay more tax? way incentives work is to get paid rising again. - work is to get paid rising again. the government does not have a plan on wages and it is doing the opposite, attacking trade unions, it is anti—strike legislation will make it hard to win pay rises for workers and if the government was serious about getting people into work, it would be talking to unions and employers about what the practical policies would be to deliver that. we have all the familiar rhetoric around benefit scroungers, and that does not help one single person get back into work. the does not help one single person get back into work.— back into work. the rhetoric from number it — back into work. the rhetoric from number 11 and _ back into work. the rhetoric from number 11 and number _ back into work. the rhetoric from number 11 and number ten - back into work. the rhetoric from number 11 and number ten is - back into work. the rhetoric from number 11 and number ten is if l back into work. the rhetoric from | number 11 and number ten is if we grow the economy, we all benefit and it is about getting it growing

again. forecasts are anaemic, we are avoiding a recession but not by much. if the pile grows, we are all better off. the potential cut to inheritance tax, the chancellor may listen to that being cold tone deaf in a cost—of—living crisis, so raising the living wage, raising national insurance —— producing a national insurance —— producing a national insurance —— producing a national insurance contributions. the idea they were even flirting with cutting inheritance taxes for the birds. we will not hear a plan to get the economy growing again or money for our public services, which will face brutal cuts, and our... be prime minister actually cut the largest infrastructure in this country in hs2. after 13 years, they

have run out of ideas and the british public will run out of patience. british public will run out of patience-— british public will run out of atience. ., ., , ., ., patience. paul, really good to have ou with patience. paul, really good to have you with us- _ patience. paul, really good to have you with us- as _ patience. paul, really good to have you with us. as we _ patience. paul, really good to have you with us. as we said, _ patience. paul, really good to have you with us. as we said, 12:30pm i patience. paul, really good to have| you with us. as we said, 12:30pm is when we will get more detail, there has been plenty of speculation which will continue until then, but the chancellor expected on his feet in the house of commons to deliver that autumn statement. we will have full coverage for you to see whether he can pull any rabbit out of a hat and deliver any gifts ahead of the general election next year, but worth pointing out, the tax burden right now the highest in 70 years and the government say that is the cost of coded mac and meet various issuesit cost of coded mac and meet various issues it has paid out for. tax receipts growing as the economy is on something of a more even keel so that perhaps gives us more wiggle room and room for manoeuvre to deliver gifts ahead of a general election. will he? we will find out

later on bbc news. i want to bring you up—to—date with a couple of other main stories we are following bbc news. police enough wales are trying to establish because of a car accident in which four teenage boys died. the boys, from shrewsbury, had been missing from sunday. it is thought they were camping in snowdonia, their vehicle was found upside down and partially submerged in water. 0ur correspondence has the latest feng shui is free. here in water. our correspondence has the latest feng shui is free.— latest feng shui is free. here in shrewsbury, — latest feng shui is free. here in shrewsbury, the _ latest feng shui is free. here in shrewsbury, the reaction - latest feng shui is free. here in shrewsbury, the reaction has i latest feng shui is free. here in . shrewsbury, the reaction has been one of mourning and sadness. these boys, aged between 16 and 18 and their lives have been tragically cut short. here are happy parish church people have been able to come and pay their respects and i am joined ljy pay their respects and i am joined by the reverend here now. just tell

me the practice has had on the community. ——just me the practice has had on the community. —— just tell me the impact this has had. community. -- just tell me the impact this has had.— community. -- just tell me the impact this has had. you feel like ou impact this has had. you feel like you dreamt _ impact this has had. you feel like you dreamt yesterday's _ impact this has had. you feel like you dreamt yesterday's awful - impact this has had. you feel like i you dreamt yesterday's awful news and you _ you dreamt yesterday's awful news and you realise it is a reality, it is utterly— and you realise it is a reality, it is utterly devastating and they wear well loved within this community and the wider_ well loved within this community and the wider shrewsbury community. it is a close—knit community, they have gone _ is a close—knit community, they have gone to— is a close—knit community, they have gone to school together since they were four — gone to school together since they were four years old. i think everybody is devastated, and doesn't know what _ everybody is devastated, and doesn't know what to do, really. find everybody is devastated, and doesn't know what to do, really.— know what to do, really. and you did not know them _ know what to do, really. and you did not know them personally, _ know what to do, really. and you did not know them personally, but - know what to do, really. and you did not know them personally, but you i not know them personally, but you know their families, not know them personally, but you know theirfamilies, is not know them personally, but you know their families, is that right? however a feeling? i know their families, is that right? however a feeling?— know their families, is that right? however a feeling? i have not been able to speak _ however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to _ however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to them _ however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to them yet. - however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to them yet. it - however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to them yet. it is - however a feeling? i have not been able to speak to them yet. it is an i able to speak to them yet. it is an incredibly— able to speak to them yet. it is an incredibly private space. the wider community, for sure, has been into the church, — community, for sure, has been into the church, some people yesterday,

'ust the church, some people yesterday, just to _ the church, some people yesterday, just to light a candle and say a prayer— just to light a candle and say a prayer and hold each other in this space _ prayer and hold each other in this space as — prayer and hold each other in this space as we begin to grieve and process— space as we begin to grieve and process the terrible tragic news. thank_ process the terrible tragic news. thank you — process the terrible tragic news. thank you for speaking to me. of course, this church isjust thank you for speaking to me. of course, this church is just a stone's throwaway from shrewsbury college, where those young men will have socialised and blended together. in a statement yesterday, they said they offered their deepest condolences to family and friends and said, this news is truly heartbreaking and our thoughts go out to all of those affected. they said they will be working directly with students and staff affected by the terrible accident and hope to put in place a range of support measures. this morning, we have also seen a statement on facebook from harvey erin's mother, who says she is in a nightmare she cannot wake up from. —— harvey owen's mother. the

from. -- harvey owen's mother. the latest there — from. -- harvey owen's mother. the latest there from _ from. —— harvey 0wen's mother. the latest there from the tributes being paid to those four teenagers, whose bodies were found in north wales. they had been missing since the weekend. we will stay right across that story for you here on bbc news, but we are also continuing our coverage of the storm babet inquiry —— the covid inquiry. chris whitty has been giving his evidence, jonathan van tamworth be there later. he is one of england's deputy medical officers during the pandemic and will speak at the inquiry later. let us check in on what we are hearing so far. chris whitty has been giving evidence this morning. aha, been giving evidence this morning. a great deal of material talking about the likely— great deal of material talking about the likely impact on the nhs. , but

what _ the likely impact on the nhs. , but what was _ the likely impact on the nhs. , but what was ultimately on the 21st of march, _ what was ultimately on the 21st of march, the final understanding as to the actuality of the likely impact on the _ the actuality of the likely impact on the nhs, if this stand were not taken? _ on the nhs, if this stand were not taken? , ., , , ., , taken? there is no, it seems to us, clear exposition _ taken? there is no, it seems to us, clear exposition on _ taken? there is no, it seems to us, clear exposition on the _ taken? there is no, it seems to us, clear exposition on the threshold i clear exposition on the threshold test being applied. iloathed clear exposition on the threshold test being applied.— test being applied. what it overwhelmed? _ test being applied. what it overwhelmed? wasn't - test being applied. what it i overwhelmed? wasn't severe test being applied. what it _ overwhelmed? wasn't severe pressure? it overwhelmed? wasn't severe pressure? it severe _ overwhelmed? wasn't severe pressure? it severe pressure with or without surge _ it severe pressure with or without surge capacity? what was the understanding of what would happen to the _ understanding of what would happen to the nhs if the lockdown was not imposed? — to the nhs if the lockdown was not imposed? | to the nhs if the lockdown was not im osed? ~ ., , imposed? i think that the first thin that imposed? i think that the first thing that was _ imposed? i think that the first thing that was going - imposed? i think that the first thing that was going to - imposed? i think that the first thing that was going to get. imposed? i think that the first thing that was going to get to | imposed? i think that the first i thing that was going to get to the point where it was no longer able to function in any sense mostly normal and, to be clear, in every country in europe, the health service came

under huge pressures, as is inevitably going to happen in the event of the first wave and subsequent waves, so just to put that caveat. the picu system was the first thing that was going to be overtop where it was going to no longer be able to function under any circumstances. the only reason i would be cautious about exact numbers is the doubling times. if it is several times a week, a week is therefore the difference between the icu just coping, define that as you will, and having twice as many people as it can possibly absorb two weeks at the same rate. you have a situation where you move, you almost have no margin for error, that is what we saw. the biggest pressure did come first to the intensive care

system across the whole board. the nhs responded extraordinarily by two mechanisms. we can debate that in another module, but i willjust say that one was expansion of the icu footprint, in my own hospital that was... . . footprint, in my own hospital that was... ., ., footprint, in my own hospital that was... . ., ., was... can i ask you, professor, to remain focused _ was... can i ask you, professor, to remain focused on _ was... can i ask you, professor, to remain focused on the _ was... can i ask you, professor, to remain focused on the issue? - was... can i ask you, professor, to| remain focused on the issue? what did you _ remain focused on the issue? what did you understand about the level of degradation? this did you understand about the level of degradation?— of degradation? this part of the answer, which _ of degradation? this part of the answer, which is _ of degradation? this part of the answer, which is that _ of degradation? this part of the answer, which is that the - of degradation? this part of the answer, which is that the icu i of degradation? this part of the i answer, which is that the icu print as it normally stood could be expanded and was expanded well beyond it what it previously was. this is the framing i used at the time. you must reduce the flood but you also have to raise the river banks and raising the river banks was expanding the icu and general capacity of the nhs and nightingale hospitals was the next stage on

that. in reality, the biggest limitation is always skilled personnel. that was always going to be biggest thing we had to deal with, ventilators i will come on to in various other modules. it was not a fixed number. there was some degree of surge capacity, but once you are on an exponential growth rate, until you stop that exponential growth rate, you can bargain to overtop sooner or later. —— you are going to overtop. putting exact numbers on that is a spurious exercise, but that principle that you move from just below your absolute upper end of your margins to well above it in a very short time i think is the key to understand here.- time i think is the key to understand here. �* , ., ., understand here. but you did not know for sure _ understand here. but you did not know for sure there _ understand here. but you did not know for sure there would - understand here. but you did not know for sure there would be - know for sure there would be exponential growth because he did not know— exponential growth because he did not know whether the previous countermeasures would work. you were assessing _ countermeasures would work. you were assessing the risk that there would

remain— assessing the risk that there would remain an — assessing the risk that there would remain an exponential growth and eventually the nhs would be overwhelmed. as of the 23rd of march, — overwhelmed. as of the 23rd of march, did anybody within the nhs or parts of— march, did anybody within the nhs or parts of government say clearly, the nhs will— parts of government say clearly, the nhs will break if you do not take this particular step? because the footprint — this particular step? because the footprint and the surge cannot accommodate on our figures the increase — accommodate on our figures the increase in— accommodate on our figures the increase in beds and icu beds needed, _ increase in beds and icu beds needed, and therefore you must take this step. _ needed, and therefore you must take this step, that the nhs will not 'ust this step, that the nhs will not just buckle but it will break? i think that this, ultimately, this understanding is what top ministers to the point of realising that if they wish to understand the no mortality option, if they did not

take this action, it may not be 100% certain that the nhs will get to that point but that there was a high enough probability that it would simply not be acceptable for the government to do if its aim was to reduce mortality. this risk was very heavyin reduce mortality. this risk was very heavy in driving, in my view, the decisions that ministers subsequently talk. but decisions that ministers subsequently talk. decisions that ministers subseuuentl talk. �* �* subsequently talk. but you're coming back to the main _ subsequently talk. but you're coming back to the main mortality _ subsequently talk. but you're coming back to the main mortality risk- subsequently talk. but you're coming back to the main mortality risk or - back to the main mortality risk or the indirect— back to the main mortality risk or the indirect risk? this back to the main mortality risk or the indirect risk?— the indirect risk? this is a combination _ the indirect risk? this is a combination of _ the indirect risk? this is a combination of the - the indirect risk? this is a combination of the direct | the indirect risk? this is a - combination of the direct mortality, what i call a mortality and the indirect mortality due to the emergency system being overwhelmed. it was to protect those two all the way through the first two years of the pandemic that the social distancing measures were taken, that was a large part of the reason

ministers took the decision say top. i want to be absolutely clear about this, on— i want to be absolutely clear about this, on the 23rd of march, there was nobody saying, putting aside the terrible _ was nobody saying, putting aside the terrible pressure of the strain and despite _ terrible pressure of the strain and despite uses of words such as overtopping or overwhelming, whatever epithet or description might— whatever epithet or description might have been used, the nhs will break— might have been used, the nhs will break by— might have been used, the nhs will break by a _ might have been used, the nhs will break by a given date? of the analysis— break by a given date? of the analysis was different, unless you take this — analysis was different, unless you take this step and promoted the prospect. — take this step and promoted the prospect, increase the chances of bringing _ prospect, increase the chances of bringing the r below one, at some point _ bringing the r below one, at some point the _ bringing the r below one, at some point the nhs will break. at bringing the r below one, at some point the nhs will break.— point the nhs will break. at some oint point the nhs will break. at some point soon- _ point the nhs will break. at some point soon. but _ point the nhs will break. at some point soon. but nobody _ point the nhs will break. at some point soon. but nobody knew - point the nhs will break. at some | point soon. but nobody knew when that would be? _ point soon. but nobody knew when that would be? no, _ point soon. but nobody knew when that would be? no, because - point soon. but nobody knew when that would be? no, because of- point soon. but nobody knew when that would be? no, because of thej that would be? no, because of the lack of data — that would be? no, because of the lack of data on _ that would be? no, because of the lack of data on the _ that would be? no, because of the lack of data on the speed - that would be? no, because of the lack of data on the speed of - lack of data on the speed of transmission by this stage, given the... this is not a risk, frankly,

that any minister whose principal aim is to reduce mortality would be willing to take. 50 aim is to reduce mortality would be willing to take.— willing to take. so ultimately it was a risk _ willing to take. so ultimately it was a risk analysis? _ willing to take. so ultimately it was a risk analysis? yes. - willing to take. so ultimately it was a risk analysis? yes. so i willing to take. so ultimately it was a risk analysis? yes. so it| was a risk analysis? yes. so it wasn't because _ was a risk analysis? yes. so it wasn't because data _ was a risk analysis? yes. so it wasn't because data in - was a risk analysis? yes so it wasn't because data in front of ministers _ wasn't because data in front of ministers was saying the nhs will collapse. — ministers was saying the nhs will collapse, you must therefore act? it was a _ collapse, you must therefore act? it was a risk— collapse, you must therefore act? it was a risk analysis, unless the r is brought— was a risk analysis, unless the r is brought below one and the exponential growth is reversed, it will collapse at some point and you could _ will collapse at some point and you could not— will collapse at some point and you could not be sure the existing number— could not be sure the existing number would suffice?- could not be sure the existing number would suffice? yes... i don't ersonall number would suffice? yes... i don't personally see _ number would suffice? yes... i don't personally see a _ number would suffice? yes... i don't personally see a big _ number would suffice? yes... i don't personally see a big difference - personally see a big difference between the two positions you have taken and i think they both end up at the same place. i taken and i think they both end up at the same place.— taken and i think they both end up at the same place. i don't know how much more — at the same place. i don't know how much more you _ at the same place. i don't know how much more you have, _ at the same place. i don't know how much more you have, there - at the same place. i don't know how much more you have, there are - at the same place. i don't know how. much more you have, there are many more _ much more you have, there are many more questions _ much more you have, there are many more questions i_ much more you have, there are many more questions. i have _ much more you have, there are many more questions. i have been - much more you have, there are many more questions. i have been asked i much more you have, there are manyj more questions. i have been asked to

take a _ more questions. i have been asked to take a break — more questions. i have been asked to take a break i— more questions. i have been asked to take a break-— take a break. i was going to put two final matters _ take a break. i was going to put two final matters and _ take a break. i was going to put two final matters and then _ take a break. i was going to put two final matters and then we _ take a break. i was going to put two final matters and then we can - take a break. i was going to put two final matters and then we can take i take a break. i was going to put two | final matters and then we can take a break— final matters and then we can take a break and _ final matters and then we can take a break and move... gk. eat out to break and move... ok. eat out to help out. — break and move... ok. eat out to help out. do _ break and move... 0k. eat out to help out, do you agree that there was not _ help out, do you agree that there was not a — help out, do you agree that there was not a full or indeed any consultation with the various bodies over that _ consultation with the various bodies over that scheme?— over that scheme? there was no consultation. _ over that scheme? there was no consultation. in _ over that scheme? there was no consultation. in boris— over that scheme? there was no consultation. in boris johnson'sl consultation. in boris johnson's witness statement, _ consultation. in boris johnson's witness statement, he - consultation. in boris johnson's witness statement, he said - consultation. in boris johnson's witness statement, he said it i consultation. in boris johnson's i witness statement, he said it was properly— witness statement, he said it was properly discussed with chris and patrick — properly discussed with chris and patrick. do you agree with that? on this patrick. do you agree with that? this one, now patrick. do you agree with that? on this one, now across across —— neither patrick nor i... can i add to that? we said to number ten

firmly that it would have been prudent, let us put it that way, for them to have thought about discussing it before it was launched and this was aimed at the centre. i am surprised the treasury and many other ministries put up with those schemes as legitimate. i felt that it may well be correct be prime minister was under the impression we had been consulted but we were not consulted and there is that difference.— consulted and there is that difference. , , ., ,, ., consulted and there is that difference. , ., , difference. yes, his assertion is it was properly _ difference. yes, his assertion is it was properly discussed... - difference. yes, his assertion is it was properly discussed... we - difference. yes, his assertion is it was properly discussed... we willj was properly discussed... we will ste awa was properly discussed... we will step away from — was properly discussed... we will step away from the _ was properly discussed... we will step away from the covid - was properly discussed... we will step away from the covid inquiry, j step away from the covid inquiry, they are preparing to take a break and there is continuing coverage of that on the bbc iplayer and bbc news website. evidence being given by sir

chris whitty and jonathan van tam later. familiarfaces during chris whitty and jonathan van tam later. familiar faces during the pandemic. i am later. familiar faces during the pandemic. iam in later. familiar faces during the pandemic. i am in westminster as we prepared to hear the chancellor giving his autumn statement. he has just left westminster and is now on his way —— he hasjust just left westminster and is now on his way —— he has just left number 11 and is now on the way to the commons. he will layout is spending plans for a year and perhaps there will be some pre—election sweeteners, but how much wiggle room he has right now, we will talk about later. now i will hand you back to the studio. live from tel aviv, this is bbc news. israel and hamas agree a deal to pause fighting, allowing the release of 50 hostages from gaza. the deal will allow aid to be sent into gaza and see the release of 150 palestinian women and children from israeli jails. cuts to national insurance and business taxes are expected

to be included in the uk chancellor's autumn statement, which he will deliver at lunchtime. artificial intelligence firm 0penai says its co—founder sam altman will return as ceo, days after his sacking triggered a revolt by staff. north korea launches a spy satellite into space, prompting south korea to partially suspend a military agreement between the two nations. voting is under way in the netherlands, in a snap general election, following the collapse of the centre—right government. hello and welcome. let's go live to my colleague anna foster.