state visit. there was in three—day state visit. there was in a very spectacular carriage procession along the mall, and then they all went along to buckingham palace where they had an informal private lunch. in the last half an hour or so, there has been a wreath laying service at the korean war memorial, in central london. let's talk to somebody who has a huge interest in both south korean and british culture. i'm very pleased to say we have a youtube sensation here with us. also known as korean billy. tell our dealers —— viewers what we do. tell our dealers -- viewers what we do. �* ., ., ., ., ~ do. i'm south korean, and i make videos and _ do. i'm south korean, and i make videos and my _ do. i'm south korean, and i make videos and my name, korean - videos and my name, korean billy. make _ videos and my name, korean billy. make videos about the british culture, — make videos about the british culture, british that also includes covering — culture, british that also includes covering british dialects and different regional accents as well. we have _ different regional accents as well. we have had millions of views, so what was the information ——

inspiration? i what was the information -- inspiration?— what was the information -- insiration? . . , . inspiration? i have always been a hue inspiration? i have always been a hu . e fan inspiration? i have always been a huge fan of _ inspiration? i have always been a huge fan of british _ inspiration? i have always been a huge fan of british culture - inspiration? i have always been a huge fan of british culture and i inspiration? i have always been a l huge fan of british culture and then i huge fan of british culture and then i started _ huge fan of british culture and then i started to — huge fan of british culture and then i started to think that learning their— i started to think that learning their language would be a great way to understand that culture more pmperiv. — to understand that culture more properly, so i started to learn the language — properly, so i started to learn the language itself and then i discovered there are different regional— discovered there are different regional accents and different dialects — regional accents and different dialects as well. then i started to educate _ dialects as well. then i started to educate my korean— dialects as well. then i started to educate my korean you are going to cive us a educate my korean you are going to give us a c°uple _ educate my korean you are going to give us a couple of _ educate my korean you are going to give us a couple of examples. - educate my korean you are going to give us a couple of examples. my i give us a couple of examples. my favourite is the scouse phrase and in standard — favourite is the scouse phrase and in standard english, usually we say, i in standard english, usually we say, i have _ in standard english, usually we say, i have a _ in standard english, usually we say, i have a chicken for my breakfast and that— i have a chicken for my breakfast and that was good, but a scouser would _ and that was good, but a scouser would say, — and that was good, but a scouser would say, i_ and that was good, but a scouser would say, i had chicken for my brekkei, — would say, i had chicken for my brekkei, lad. would say, i had chicken for my brekkei, lad-—

would say, i had chicken for my - brekkei, lad._ yes, brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do that _ brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do that. you _ brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do that. you want _ brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do that. you want to - brekkei, lad. and in scottish? yes, i can do that. you want to learn - i can do that. you want to learn more, i can do that. you want to learn more. as _ i can do that. you want to learn more, as well, _ i can do that. you want to learn more, as well, travelling - i can do that. you want to learn more, as well, travelling the i more, as well, travelling the country?— more, as well, travelling the country?_ how - more, as well, travelling the - country?_ how important country? yes, jerry. how important is it for the _ country? yes, jerry. how important is it for the younger _ country? yes, jerry. how important is it for the younger generation - country? yes, jerry. how important is it for the younger generation in l is it for the younger generation in south korea, to see their president in the uk? for south korea, to see their president in the uk? ., , ., , in the uk? for me personally, the state visit cheers _ in the uk? for me personally, the state visit cheers me _ in the uk? for me personally, the state visit cheers me up, - in the uk? for me personally, the state visit cheers me up, and - in the uk? for me personally, the state visit cheers me up, and i - state visit cheers me up, and i think— state visit cheers me up, and i think the — state visit cheers me up, and i think the visit encourages the south korean— think the visit encourages the south korean people living in the uk, as well, _ korean people living in the uk, as well, and — korean people living in the uk, as well, and these days south korean culture _ well, and these days south korean culture is— well, and these days south korean culture is in— well, and these days south korean culture is in the spotlight and this year marks— culture is in the spotlight and this year marks 140 years of the uk korean — year marks 140 years of the uk korean relations. so this is perfect tinrind _ korean relations. so this is perfect timinu. ., ., , , ., timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture — timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture of— timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture of the _ timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture of the uk, _ timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture of the uk, what - timing. south koreans, in terms of the culture of the uk, what do - timing. south koreans, in terms of| the culture of the uk, what do they like? the royalfamily? thea;r the culture of the uk, what do they like? the royalfamily?— like? the royalfamily? they do. british pop- _ like? the royalfamily? they do. british pop. films— like? the royalfamily? they do. british pop. films and _ like? the royalfamily? they do. british pop. films and tv - like? the royalfamily? they do. | british pop. films and tv shows. like? the royalfamily? they do. - british pop. films and tv shows. so many— british pop. films and tv shows. so many things— british pop. films and tv shows. so many things to enjoy. you british pop. films and tv shows. so many things to enjoy.— many things to en'oy. you live here at the moment. — many things to enjoy. you live here at the moment. what _ many things to enjoy. you live here at the moment. what do _ many things to enjoy. you live here at the moment. what do you - many things to enjoy. you live here at the moment. what do you miss l at the moment. what do you miss about south korea?—

at the moment. what do you miss about south korea? close friends. i used to miss _ about south korea? close friends. i used to miss south _ about south korea? close friends. i used to miss south korean - about south korea? close friends. i used to miss south korean food - about south korea? close friends. ij used to miss south korean food but in the _ used to miss south korean food but in the uk _ used to miss south korean food but in the uk there are lots of south korean— in the uk there are lots of south korean restaurants popping up these days so— korean restaurants popping up these days so i_ korean restaurants popping up these days so i can also get rid of my home — days so i can also get rid of my home sickness these days in the uk. is a home sickness these days in the uk. is a visit— home sickness these days in the uk. is a visit going to be covered very widely in south korea? will there be attention? $5 widely in south korea? will there be attention? b51 widely in south korea? will there be attention? . , ., , attention? as i mentioned, there is attention? as i mentioned, there is a celebration _ attention? as i mentioned, there is a celebration going _ attention? as i mentioned, there is a celebration going on _ attention? as i mentioned, there is a celebration going on marking - attention? as i mentioned, there is a celebration going on marking 140| a celebration going on marking 140 years. _ a celebration going on marking 140 years. as _ a celebration going on marking 140 years, as well, and because british people _ years, as well, and because british people are — years, as well, and because british people are starting to love korean culture _ people are starting to love korean culture and people are starting to love british culture more and more, so the _ love british culture more and more, so the friendship is getting more solid. _ so the friendship is getting more solid. so — so the friendship is getting more solid, so the time is really important. it is really helpful for building — important. it is really helpful for building much better friendships between the uk and south korea. we have between the uk and south korea. have heard between the uk and south korea. - have heard that the president of south korea is a big fan of karaoke. is that true? south korea is a big fan of karaoke. is that true?— is that true? yes. it is. korean --eole

is that true? yes. it is. korean people including _ is that true? yes. it is. korean people including the _ is that true? yes. it is. korean people including the president| is that true? yes. it is. korean - people including the presidentjust love to _ people including the presidentjust love to sing a song. do people including the president “ust love to sing a songi people including the president “ust love to sing a song. do you want to end by doing _ love to sing a song. do you want to end by doing one — love to sing a song. do you want to end by doing one more _ love to sing a song. do you want to end by doing one more accent? - love to sing a song. do you want to| end by doing one more accent? may love to sing a song. do you want to - end by doing one more accent? may be in geordie, end by doing one more accent? may be in geordie. people _ end by doing one more accent? may be in geordie, people can _ end by doing one more accent? may be in geordie, people can say, _ end by doing one more accent? may be in geordie, people can say, i'm - in geordie, people can say, i'm going _ in geordie, people can say, i'm going down to the city centre and lets get _ going down to the city centre and lets get drunk, and people can say, away, _ lets get drunk, and people can say, awav, nran. — lets get drunk, and people can say, away, man, i'm going down the turn. thank— away, man, i'm going down the turn. thank you _ away, man, i'm going down the turn. thank you very much. korean bili, youtube sensation. behind us, at buckingham palace, afterfurther buckingham palace, after further events, buckingham palace, afterfurther events, there is going to be the big state banquet which will be a lavish affair, with the king and queen and the president of south korea and the first lady and members of the royal family, politicians, they will be dining on some very nice food. we are yet to get the menu but we will bring you the details. thanks for joining us. thanks. the covid

inquiry has reconvened so we can now cross to that. i inquiry has reconvened so we can now cross to that-— cross to that. i have asked tonight to finish at — cross to that. i have asked tonight to finish at about _ cross to that. i have asked tonight to finish at about 430 _ cross to that. i have asked tonight to finish at about 430 and - cross to that. i have asked tonight to finish at about 430 and there'sl cross to that. i have asked tonight| to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to— to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how— to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how much _ to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how much we _ to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how much we can - to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how much we can ask - to finish at about 430 and there's a limit to how much we can ask you i to finish at about 430 and there's ai limit to how much we can ask you to do one _ limit to how much we can ask you to do one dav — limit to how much we can ask you to do one dav hie _ limit to how much we can ask you to do one day-— do one day. we were at the point of the stock meeting, _ do one day. we were at the point of the stock meeting, so-called, - do one day. we were at the point of the stock meeting, so-called, the l the stock meeting, so—called, the 4th of— the stock meeting, so—called, the 4th of february, and there were and you have _ 4th of february, and there were and you have referred in general terms to these, _ you have referred in general terms to these, cobra, sage, throughout the rest— to these, cobra, sage, throughout the rest of— to these, cobra, sage, throughout the rest of february, and your point about— the rest of february, and your point about the _ the rest of february, and your point about the number of occasions in which _ about the number of occasions in which you — about the number of occasions in which you address the looming crisis is well— which you address the looming crisis is well made. hundreds of pages of learning _ is well made. hundreds of pages of learning produced by its age and the

subcommittees and a variety of different— subcommittees and a variety of different other government meetings, and there _ different other government meetings, and there was a cobra on the 5th of februarv _ and there was a cobra on the 5th of february. there is a paper produced by the _ february. there is a paper produced by the london school of tropical medicine — by the london school of tropical medicine from its divisions, and this is— medicine from its divisions, and this is not— medicine from its divisions, and this is not a _ medicine from its divisions, and this is not a memory test, professor, but do you recall whether you were _ professor, but do you recall whether you were given that paper? it was a paper— you were given that paper? it was a paper that — you were given that paper? it was a paper that dealt with the feasibility of controlling 2019 novel — feasibility of controlling 2019 novel coronavirus? | feasibility of controlling 2019 novel coronavirus?_ feasibility of controlling 2019 novel coronavirus? i can't recall because i— novel coronavirus? i can't recall because i received _ novel coronavirus? i can't recall because i received multiple - novel coronavirus? i can't recall - because i received multiple versions and papers and remembering that far backis and papers and remembering that far back is too difficult.— back is too difficult. indeed. essentially, _ back is too difficult. indeed. essentially, and _ back is too difficult. indeed. essentially, and this - back is too difficult. indeed. essentially, and this is - back is too difficult. indeed. essentially, and this is the l essentially, and this is the evidence, the report was produced, which _

evidence, the report was produced, which showed that very high number of contacts. — which showed that very high number of contacts, fractions of contacts would _ of contacts, fractions of contacts would have to be traced and isolated for effective control to work. there was also _ for effective control to work. there was also an — for effective control to work. there was also an you have referred to this, _ was also an you have referred to this, a _ was also an you have referred to this, a report from icl dated the 10th _ this, a report from icl dated the 10th of— this, a report from icl dated the 10th of february, which you referred to which— 10th of february, which you referred to which said, there was an overall case _ to which said, there was an overall case fatality rate, of approximately 1%. case fatality rate, of approximately i%~ there _ case fatality rate, of approximately 1%. there followed thereafter an important cabinet meeting on the 14th of— important cabinet meeting on the 14th of february, maybe we can have a look _ 14th of february, maybe we can have a look at _ 14th of february, maybe we can have a look at that. if we look at page

six, a look at that. if we look at page six. of— a look at that. if we look at page six. of this— a look at that. if we look at page six, of this meeting, we can see the following _ six, of this meeting, we can see the following is — six, of this meeting, we can see the following is reported. the chief medical— following is reported. the chief medical officer said the published figures _ medical officer said the published figures of around 60,000 cases of the virus _ figures of around 60,000 cases of the virus in — figures of around 60,000 cases of the virus in china could in reality be ten _ the virus in china could in reality be ten times higher. over a thousand people _ be ten times higher. over a thousand people in— be ten times higher. over a thousand people in china reported to have died from — people in china reported to have died from the virus. if the virus remains — died from the virus. if the virus remains centred around wuhan and the province _ remains centred around wuhan and the province it— remains centred around wuhan and the province it may be possible to restrict — province it may be possible to restrict transmission in the uk but if it spreads then the uk would not be immune. that is the point you made _ be immune. that is the point you made earlier, once control is lost, and it— made earlier, once control is lost, and it is— made earlier, once control is lost, and it is sustainable, geographically outside china, then game _ geographically outside china, then game over. is it correct that by this date, _ game over. is it correct that by this date, the 14th of february, there _ this date, the 14th of february, there were cases not only injapan,

south _ there were cases not only injapan, south korea, and geographical regions — south korea, and geographical regions connected to china but also in germany— regions connected to china but also in germany and europe? yes. regions connected to china but also in germany and europe?— in germany and europe? yes. you could not have _ in germany and europe? yes. you could not have been _ in germany and europe? yes. you could not have been very - in germany and europe? yes. you could not have been very hopefull could not have been very hopeful given the nature of the transmission, the now known characteristics of the virus and the geographical spread, that the body of the outbreak would remain confined to china, in orderfor the chinese to suppress it. by this stage, we had moved to a position where it was more likely than not that we would end up with a pandemic. if that we would end up with a pandemic-— that we would end up with a pandemic. that we would end up with a andemic. ., ., ~ ., , pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see — pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that _ pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that the _ pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that the top _ pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that the top of- pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that the top of the - pandemic. if we look at page seven, we cant see that the top of the page it says. _

we cant see that the top of the page it says, concluding, the chief medical— it says, concluding, the chief medical officer said if the virus became — medical officer said if the virus became widespread in the uk, there were plans _ became widespread in the uk, there were plans in place to slow down its spread. _ were plans in place to slow down its spread, accepting that this may not be an— spread, accepting that this may not be an accurate reflection of what was said — be an accurate reflection of what was said. and if you said the virus became _ was said. and if you said the virus became widespread in the uk, would that be _ became widespread in the uk, would that be an _ became widespread in the uk, would that be an accurate reflection of your— that be an accurate reflection of your understanding, that the virus having _ your understanding, that the virus having left — your understanding, that the virus having left china, spread to the uk was inevitable?— was inevitable? leaving china, you could have — was inevitable? leaving china, you could have chains _ was inevitable? leaving china, you could have chains of _ was inevitable? leaving china, you could have chains of transmission l could have chains of transmission outside china and it would still be in the scenario where it was controlled globally, but by this stage it was much less, so the probability was not binary, but gradually shifting, and it shifted to this being more likely than not that we would end up with a pandemic. did that we would end up with a pandemic-— that we would end up with a andemic. , ., pandemic. did the government understand _ pandemic. did the government understand that _ pandemic. did the government understand that it _ pandemic. did the government understand that it was -

pandemic. did the government understand that it was still - understand that it was still conditional, that if the virus became _ conditional, that if the virus became widespread there were plans in place _ became widespread there were plans in place or— became widespread there were plans in place or did they understand that it was— in place or did they understand that it was a _ in place or did they understand that it was a pandemic and not just a regional— it was a pandemic and not just a regional outbreak, and that it had spread _ regional outbreak, and that it had spread beyond china and was in the uk and _ spread beyond china and was in the uk and it— spread beyond china and was in the uk and it was sustained transmission? | uk and it was sustained transmission?— uk and it was sustained transmission? ., ,, ., , transmission? i do think that. it is extremely rare — transmission? i do think that. it is extremely rare in _ transmission? i do think that. it is extremely rare in fact _ transmission? i do think that. it is extremely rare in fact that - transmission? i do think that. it is extremely rare in fact that the - extremely rare in fact that the chief medical officer is invited to cabinet. this reflects the fact that government was acknowledging that this was a substantial threat. one point in this, which is useful later on, to make the point that we were making very clear this could be more than one peak, because that was a bit lost in the narratives. late than one peak, because that was a bit lost in the narratives.— bit lost in the narratives. we will come back _ bit lost in the narratives. we will come back to — bit lost in the narratives. we will come back to that. _ bit lost in the narratives. we will come back to that. you - bit lost in the narratives. we will come back to that. you also - bit lost in the narratives. we will come back to that. you also say| bit lost in the narratives. we will i come back to that. you also say to cabinet. _ come back to that. you also say to cabinet, there were plans in place to slow— cabinet, there were plans in place to slow down its spread, and mindful

of what _ to slow down its spread, and mindful of what you _ to slow down its spread, and mindful of what you have told us about the lack of _ of what you have told us about the lack of efficacy in border controls, which _ lack of efficacy in border controls, which you — lack of efficacy in border controls, which you had received saying, practical— which you had received saying, practical measures of controlling spread _ practical measures of controlling spread were difficult. what plans in place _ spread were difficult. what plans in place did _ spread were difficult. what plans in place did you have in mind when you said there _ place did you have in mind when you said there were plans in place to slow— said there were plans in place to slow down— said there were plans in place to slow down it spread? you said there were plans in place to slow down it spread?— said there were plans in place to slow down it spread? you could read this a couple — slow down it spread? you could read this a couple of— slow down it spread? you could read this a couple of ways _ slow down it spread? you could read this a couple of ways and _ slow down it spread? you could read this a couple of ways and both - slow down it spread? you could read this a couple of ways and both would be correct, there are things we can do to slow but i wanted to be clear there was nothing we could do to stop, that is an important thing, and this is where the delay bit with the contained delay research mitigate formulation really comes in, and obviously the biggest element of this in the early stages was identification of cases and case finding and isolation, the reasons you have given from professor

edmonds and his team and this is widely accepted in the literature, once you get to a large amount of transmission, those are highly unlikely to work but in the early stages a case finding and isolation strategy has a realistic chance if you can find the majority of the cases, that is the big if, in significantly delaying the spread. the point i am seeking to make it a slightly— the point i am seeking to make it a slightly different one which is sitting — slightly different one which is sitting in the shoes of government, and hearing the words set out by the chief medical officer, if the virus became — chief medical officer, if the virus became widespread, there were plans to slow— became widespread, there were plans to slow down its spread, and they might— to slow down its spread, and they might not— to slow down its spread, and they might not have been sufficiently electrified to use your words and i wonder— electrified to use your words and i wonder if— electrified to use your words and i wonder if this is a correct reflection of what you actually said? — reflection of what you actually said? did you communicate the

threat? — said? did you communicate the threat? . , _ , , ., threat? certainly, by this stage, there was a _ threat? certainly, by this stage, there was a recognition - threat? certainly, by this stage, there was a recognition that - threat? certainly, by this stage, i there was a recognition that there was a significant threat and the way this was reported is a fairly bland way but that does not mean it was a bland presentation. i can't exactly remember what he said and what words are used but if i were listening to this in cabinet, i would be concerned. one of the things that we really did not find easy to get across, ifound this really did not find easy to get across, i found this surprising given so many people are trained in economics, the extraordinary power of exponential growth to get you from small numbers to large numbers very quickly, peoplejust from small numbers to large numbers very quickly, people just don't get that, and maybe they have it a bit more now, having seen it, but prior

to the pandemic, people did not understand how quickly they moved from small numbers to actually very large numbers, and doubling every few days, that that can be really quite quick. i’m few days, that that can be really quite quick-— few days, that that can be really uruiteuick.�* , ,, quite quick. i'm sorry to press you on this, professor, _ quite quick. i'm sorry to press you on this, professor, you _ quite quick. i'm sorry to press you on this, professor, you said - quite quick. i'm sorry to press you on this, professor, you said they i on this, professor, you said they did recognise there was a significant threat, they sufficiently recognise there was the threat _ sufficiently recognise there was the threat that you described order, the ekistential— threat that you described order, the existential threat? threat that you described order, the existentialthreat? —— described existential threat? —— described earlier~ — existential threat? —— described earlier~ i— existentialthreat? —— described earlier. i may be because members of government— earlier. i may be because members of government do not necessarily understand the science and the notion— understand the science and the notion is— understand the science and the notion is difficult to grasp. cast our notion is difficult to grasp. cast your mind _ notion is difficult to grasp. cast your mind back— notion is difficult to grasp. cast your mind back to _ notion is difficult to grasp. (iszit your mind back to remembering the political environment at this stage, and the fact that at this point they were devoting a sufficient amount of cabinet to this particular issue does mean that at a certain level this has lodged as a major issue for government. because it was a busy

political period. do i think that most people around the table fully grasped what would happen if they started to grow exponentially? i suspect the answer is no but i would not want to interpret their thoughts. not want to interpret their thoughts-— not want to interpret their thou~hts. , ., thoughts. no. but you recognise that one of the hugely _ thoughts. no. but you recognise that one of the hugely important - one of the hugely important functions of the chief medical officer— functions of the chief medical officer is to be able to get them to understand the seriousness of the position — understand the seriousness of the position l — understand the seriousness of the osition. . . understand the seriousness of the osition. ., , ., , understand the seriousness of the osition. ., , , , understand the seriousness of the| position-_ 0k- position. i was doing my best. 0k. later in february, _ position. i was doing my best. 0k. later in february, further - later in february, further information was received from the diamond _ information was received from the diamond princess outbreak, the outbreak— diamond princess outbreak, the outbreak of the virus on the cruise ship which — outbreak of the virus on the cruise ship which had taken place in early february. — ship which had taken place in early february, but a certain time passed before _ february, but a certain time passed before figures could be computed and the analysis done but it became, if it was— the analysis done but it became, if it was not— the analysis done but it became, if it was not already clear, it became abundantly — it was not already clear, it became abundantly clear by the last week in

february— abundantly clear by the last week in february that the infection fatality rate, _ february that the infection fatality rate. the — february that the infection fatality rate, the number of people who were diet having _ rate, the number of people who were diet having been infected, was of the order— diet having been infected, was of the order which had been estimated, in the _ the order which had been estimated, in the case _ the order which had been estimated, in the case fatality rate was as had been _ in the case fatality rate was as had been originally estimated, and this virus was _ been originally estimated, and this virus was hugely transmissible and had significant, around 30% asymptomatic transmission. gn had significant, around 30% asymptomatic transmission. on the last oint, asymptomatic transmission. on the last point. that _ asymptomatic transmission. on the last point, that was _ asymptomatic transmission. on the last point, that was a _ asymptomatic transmission. on the last point, that was a bit _ asymptomatic transmission. on the last point, that was a bit less - last point, that was a bit less clear, but it strengthened the principle that asymptomatic transmission was varied. the estimates — transmission was varied. the estimates from _ transmission was varied. the estimates from professor edmonds, who reported on the data, they were there _ who reported on the data, they were there to _ who reported on the data, they were there to that effect? i who reported on the data, they were there to that effect?— there to that effect? i would accept that. you said _ there to that effect? i would accept that. you said it _ there to that effect? i would accept that. you said it was _ there to that effect? i would accept that. you said it was clear - there to that effect? i would accept that. you said it was clear but - there to that effect? i would accept that. you said it was clear but i - that. you said it was clear but i think it was less clear, that's a technical point.— think it was less clear, that's a technical point. think it was less clear, that's a technical oint. ., ., technical point. you mentioned the debate concerning _ technical point. you mentioned the debate concerning reasonable - debate concerning reasonable worst—case scenario and i want to

ask you _ worst—case scenario and i want to ask you briefly about your views on that doctrine. you made clear in your— that doctrine. you made clear in your statement that the reasonable worst—case scenario concerning pandemic— worst—case scenario concerning pandemic influenza was predicated upon an— pandemic influenza was predicated upon an unmitigated reasonable worst—case scenario, that is to say that no— worst—case scenario, that is to say that no steps are taken by the government to be able to respond, it is unmitigated, and therefore you make _ is unmitigated, and therefore you make the — is unmitigated, and therefore you make the point that actually, in terms _ make the point that actually, in terms of— make the point that actually, in terms of the reasonable worst—case scenario _ terms of the reasonable worst—case scenario being examined by government in various forms, but especially— government in various forms, but especially in relation to pandemics, it is a _ especially in relation to pandemics, it is a wholly improbable outcome because _ it is a wholly improbable outcome because no government will ever not do nothing? — because no government will ever not do nothing?— do nothing? yes. the principle of reasonable _ do nothing? yes. the principle of reasonable worst-case _ do nothing? yes. the principle of reasonable worst-case scenario l do nothing? yes. the principle of| reasonable worst-case scenario is do nothing? yes. the principle of. reasonable worst-case scenario is a reasonable worst—case scenario is a reasonable worst—case scenario is a reasonable one, for certain planning purposes and it is basically to ask questions like, what is the maximum

number of burials we would have to deal with, these morbid but important issues to consider. to that extent it has a use and it also has used to say how much further below the reasonable worst—case scenario do we need to get something, so i'm not saying it is without use, and it has a couple of fundamental problems in my view, both in a sense of communication. the first and this is a problem for patrick and me at various points, in the doctrine people say, what is the reasonable worst—case scenario... slowdown. in reasonable worst-case scenario... slowdown-— reasonable worst-case scenario... slowdown. ., ., ., slowdown. in the context of another miti . ate slowdown. in the context of another mitigate it- -- _ slowdown. in the context of another mitigate it... pandemic, _ slowdown. in the context of another mitigate it... pandemic, when - slowdown. in the context of another mitigate it... pandemic, when you l mitigate it... pandemic, when you know the mortality and the reproductive rate is easy to calculate, and then they will say, how likely is that, to which the

answer is extraordinarily unlikely and then everybody relaxes, but that is because it was highly unlikely to happen, and nobody will pay any attention to this, notjust government but the general population, and it can lead to a misunderstanding and it can lead to people underestimating the risk because they ask the wrong question, how likely is the worst—case scenario, in which the answer is always unlikely, otherwise it would not be the worst case scenario. in terms of government spending time talking _ terms of government spending time talking about the probability of something which is wholly improbable is not _ something which is wholly improbable is not the _ something which is wholly improbable is not the most efficient use of time? — is not the most efficient use of time? �* . . , is not the most efficient use of time? . h, is not the most efficient use of time? ,, ., time? arguably yes. and the other roblem, time? arguably yes. and the other problem. and _ time? arguably yes. and the other problem. and you _ time? arguably yes. and the other problem, and you will— time? arguably yes. and the other problem, and you will see - time? arguably yes. and the other problem, and you will see in - time? arguably yes. and the other problem, and you will see in this l time? arguably yes. and the other| problem, and you will see in this in some of the witness statements, people use the term to mean my

estimate of the worst outcome rather than the outcome as understood in planning doctrine, so it has a number of... it is a sensible thing for people to use amongst people who are disaster planners, they know what they are doing and it is understood between them but using it with people who are not used to it, it can lead to confusion and i'm not saying it should be done away with but it should be used with considerable care. aha, but it should be used with considerable care. . . ., ., considerable care. a great deal of time was spent _ considerable care. a great deal of time was spent focusing - considerable care. a great deal of time was spent focusing on - considerable care. a great deal of time was spent focusing on not i considerable care. a great deal of. time was spent focusing on notjust what the _ time was spent focusing on notjust what the probability was of the reasonable worst—case scenario but also on _ reasonable worst—case scenario but also on how — reasonable worst—case scenario but also on how to plan for the reasonable worst—case scenario. what steps _ reasonable worst—case scenario. what steps might _ reasonable worst—case scenario. what steps might need to be taken to address— steps might need to be taken to address it? was there a danger in your view— address it? was there a danger in your view that as a system if

government is focusing on something that it _ government is focusing on something that it knows is a wholly improbable outcome, _ that it knows is a wholly improbable outcome, it — that it knows is a wholly improbable outcome, it may take its eye off the ball and _ outcome, it may take its eye off the ball and it _ outcome, it may take its eye off the ball and it may allow a sense of optimism — ball and it may allow a sense of optimism bias to infiltrate the system — optimism bias to infiltrate the system because it thinks it is a wholly— system because it thinks it is a wholly improbable and it is never going _ wholly improbable and it is never going to — wholly improbable and it is never going to happen and that may deprive the system of the required degree of immediacy? in the system of the required degree of immedia ? . ., ., , ., immediacy? in an ideal world you would have _ immediacy? in an ideal world you would have a _ immediacy? in an ideal world you would have a small _ immediacy? in an ideal world you would have a small number - immediacy? in an ideal world you would have a small number of. immediacy? in an ideal world you - would have a small number of people thinking seriously about how you deal with the worst—case scenario if you lose control of any environment but the great majority of people concentrating more on how we get this down to the lowest possible level given the threat we face of whatever type, certainly in pandemics that would be true. because then they would be focused on the _ because then they would be focused on the actuality and the real scenario. _ on the actuality and the real scenario, what is genuinely likely to happen?—

scenario, what is genuinely likely to happen?- l— scenario, what is genuinely likely to happen? yes. iask scenario, what is genuinely likely to happen? yes. i ask because it is lain, to happen? yes. i ask because it is plain. from — to happen? yes. i ask because it is plain, from cobra _ to happen? ya; i ask because it is plain, from cobra meetings in february— plain, from cobra meetings in february and the reasonable worst—case scenario, planning meeting — worst—case scenario, planning meeting on the 14th of february, a sage _ meeting on the 14th of february, a sage meeting on the 25th of every, numerous _ sage meeting on the 25th of every, numerous whatsapp messages in march, hu-e numerous whatsapp messages in march, huge amount of time is dedicated to trying _ huge amount of time is dedicated to trying to— huge amount of time is dedicated to trying to assess how probable the reasonable worst—case scenario is. that is— reasonable worst—case scenario is. that is correct. reasonable worst-case scenario is. that is correct-— reasonable worst-case scenario is. that is correct. that does not seem to have been _ that is correct. that does not seem to have been a _ that is correct. that does not seem to have been a profitable _ that is correct. that does not seem to have been a profitable use - that is correct. that does not seem to have been a profitable use of- to have been a profitable use of time _ to have been a profitable use of time. lt— to have been a profitable use of time. . . to have been a profitable use of time. , , , ., to have been a profitable use of time. , , i. time. it is useful if you can hive it off from _ time. it is useful if you can hive it off from the _ time. it is useful if you can hive it off from the rest _ time. it is useful if you can hive it off from the rest of _ time. it is useful if you can hive it off from the rest of the - time. it is useful if you can hive it off from the rest of the workl it off from the rest of the work which is mitigating the reasonable worst—case scenario and making it less worst. it worst-case scenario and making it less worst-— less worst. it is not an easy process- — less worst. it is not an easy process. you _ less worst. it is not an easy process. you were - less worst. it is not an easy process. you were asked i less worst. it is not an easy process. you were asked to less worst. it is not an easy - process. you were asked to apply in the covid _ process. you were asked to apply in the covid group, what the probability is and sir patrick vallance _ probability is and sir patrick vallance said, me and chris both

think— vallance said, me and chris both think the — vallance said, me and chris both think the worst—case scenario is low probability. — think the worst—case scenario is low probability, one in five, and on the 8th of— probability, one in five, and on the 8th of march in a meeting with the then chancellor and patrick vallance, the note of the meeting requires _ vallance, the note of the meeting requires a — vallance, the note of the meeting requires a probability being 10%. very difficult process. one requires a probability being 10%. very difficult process.— requires a probability being 10%. very difficult process. one of the roblems very difficult process. one of the problems is _ very difficult process. one of the problems is that _ very difficult process. one of the problems is that people - very difficult process. one of the problems is that people then - very difficult process. one of the problems is that people then getj problems is that people then get pushed on and not had sir patrick and myself got pushed on, which can lead to a misunderstanding, but as i say, used carefully with people who know what they are talking about, it has a role and i do not want to undermine that but it is one of those slippery concepts, in the last place you want to be dealing with it, in whatsapp conversations. the wider point —

it, in whatsapp conversations. the wider point is this, given the immediacy of the problem that time was vital. _ immediacy of the problem that time was vital, that the government had to face _ was vital, that the government had to face up— was vital, that the government had to face up to the immediacy of the massive _ to face up to the immediacy of the massive threat, 2— weeks of persistent debate about reasonable worst—case scenario was not a good use of— worst—case scenario was not a good use of the _ worst—case scenario was not a good use of the planning time of the government? | use of the planning time of the government?— use of the planning time of the government? use of the planning time of the covernment? ., �* ,, ., government? i don't think most of the planning _ government? i don't think most of the planning time _ government? i don't think most of the planning time was _ government? i don't think most of the planning time was taken - government? i don't think most of the planning time was taken there | the planning time was taken there but i would accept more time was spent on that and was probably useful. —— than was probably useful. can i turn to look at some of the other— can i turn to look at some of the other stand—alone issues which you had to— other stand—alone issues which you had to consider and on which you gave _ had to consider and on which you gave advice, in the lead up to the lockdown— gave advice, in the lead up to the lockdown decision. mass gatherings. sage and _ lockdown decision. mass gatherings. sage and also nerve tack, advise repeatedly on the issue of mass

gatherings?— repeatedly on the issue of mass gatherings?_ that i repeatedly on the issue of mass| gatherings?_ that is gatherings? that is right. that is because government, _ gatherings? that is right. that is because government, mindful. gatherings? that is right. that is because government, mindful ofj gatherings? that is right. that is - because government, mindful of the political— because government, mindful of the political connotations surrounding mass _ political connotations surrounding mass gatherings, repeatedly came to sage to— mass gatherings, repeatedly came to sage to say, what is your view and should _ sage to say, what is your view and should we — sage to say, what is your view and should we allow events to continue? government was asking a reasonable question in that sense, and sage repeatedly gave a correct but on helpful answer. repeatedly gave a correct but on helpfulanswer. —— repeatedly gave a correct but on helpful answer. —— unhelpful. repeatedly gave a correct but on helpfulanswer. —— unhelpful. in february and march, in a paper dated the 1ith— february and march, in a paper dated the iith of— february and march, in a paper dated the 11th of march, the advice was given— the 11th of march, the advice was given as — the 11th of march, the advice was given as follows, essentially in terms — given as follows, essentially in terms of— given as follows, essentially in terms of infection control, outdoor events— terms of infection control, outdoor events are — terms of infection control, outdoor events are safer than indoors, that is fairly— events are safer than indoors, that is fairly self—evident. sage and the london _ is fairly self—evident. sage and the london school of hygiene and tropical— london school of hygiene and tropical medicine looked at the degree — tropical medicine looked at the degree to which infections might spread _ degree to which infections might spread in — degree to which infections might spread in bars and trains and so on

and other— spread in bars and trains and so on and other close quarters, in queues, whether— and other close quarters, in queues, whether alongside sporting events or even sporting events were to be shut, _ even sporting events were to be shut. so— even sporting events were to be shut. so if— even sporting events were to be shut, so if everyone goes to the pub instead _ shut, so if everyone goes to the pub instead to _ shut, so if everyone goes to the pub instead to watch the game. do you assess _ instead to watch the game. do you assess now — instead to watch the game. do you assess now and obviously this is with hindsight, that they may have overstated or they may have underplayed the public health message which allowing sporting events— message which allowing sporting events and mass gatherings to remain open amounted to? yes. events and mass gatherings to remain open amounted to?— open amounted to? yes. in a sense their actual — open amounted to? yes. in a sense their actual analysis _ open amounted to? yes. in a sense their actual analysis is _ open amounted to? yes. in a sense their actual analysis is correct, - their actual analysis is correct, how do we handle a situation where large numbers of people were over for a football match, and then they go to the pub, you will probably increasing the risk rather than decreasing it, so the point they were making, in one sense, was

correct, and the risk of outdoor events even if quite crowded, is small relative to many of the other things, so i don't disagree in retrospect with what was said by them and by us at sage so i'm taking ownership of that, but where we were not paying enough attention, and it is obvious with hindsight, is the message this was sending, that seeing mass gatherings going on signalled to the general public that the government could not be that worried because it would be closing the mass gatherings if it was. the problem was not the gatherings themselves, and there is no good evidence that it has had a major material effect, but the impression it gives of normality at a time when you are trying to signal is anything but normality, so if we were to rerun, that is one of the things we would certainly do differently,

certainly push to do differently. having a debate on the application of the _ having a debate on the application of the precautionary principle over, say primary— of the precautionary principle over, say primary schools, while allowing sporting _ say primary schools, while allowing sporting events to continue and mass events— sporting events to continue and mass events to _ sporting events to continue and mass events to remain open, it was in hindsight — events to remain open, it was in hindsight rather unfortunate? it is technicall hindsight rather unfortunate? it 3 technically correct but logically coherent to the general public, quite understandably.- coherent to the general public, quite understandably. there was a cobra meeting _ quite understandably. there was a cobra meeting around _ quite understandably. there was a cobra meeting around the - quite understandably. there was a cobra meeting around the time . quite understandably. there was a i cobra meeting around the time there was repeated advice given on mass gatherings, and if we have a look at pages _ gatherings, and if we have a look at pages i-s. — gatherings, and if we have a look at pages 1—3, we can see the attendees, if we scroll— pages 1—3, we can see the attendees, if we scroll forward... if we go back— if we scroll forward... if we go back one — if we scroll forward... if we go back one page.

maybe you we ren't maybe you weren't there... yes, that we are, _ maybe you weren't there... yes, that we are, officials. and then, under page _ we are, officials. and then, under page five. — we are, officials. and then, under page five. i— we are, officials. and then, under page five, i am mindful therefore, professor. — page five, i am mindful therefore, professor, that this is the 18th of february. — professor, that this is the 18th of february, so sometime has wound on since _ february, so sometime has wound on since the _ february, so sometime has wound on since the beginning of february and the stock—take meeting on the fourth of. the stock—take meeting on the fourth of -- _ the stock—take meeting on the fourth of -- fourth— the stock—take meeting on the fourth of. —— fourth february. so, could we have _ of. —— fourth february. so, could we have a _ of. —— fourth february. so, could we have a different page. paragraph 17. the chair— have a different page. paragraph 17. the chair invited the director of the civil— the chair invited the director of the civil contingency secretariat to - ive the civil contingency secretariat to give an _ the civil contingency secretariat to give an update on the planning for the reasonable worst case scenario, so there _ the reasonable worst case scenario, so there is— the reasonable worst case scenario, so there is when it appears first, but the — so there is when it appears first, but the director of the civil contingencies secretary and said there _ contingencies secretary and said there would be work to be done, to create _ there would be work to be done, to create a _ there would be work to be done, to create a clear plan of activity across — create a clear plan of activity across the uk government, from the moment— across the uk government, from the moment a _ across the uk government, from the moment a sustained transmission, of course. _ moment a sustained transmission, of course. there — moment a sustained transmission, of course, there was already on there had been _ course, there was already on there had been for weeks, course, there was already on there had been forweeks, sustained transmission, to its ad estimated peak. _ transmission, to its ad estimated peak, likely to be a period of three months _ peak, likely to be a period of three months. were you concerned, mindful

of what _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you had