yet clear protest. it is not yet clear which charges if any he is facing. his lawyers says the claim is based on media reports. on the ninth anniversary of russia's illegal annexation of crimea president putin travelled to the peninsula to reassert russia's territorial claims. this was his first visit to the area since ordering a full—scale invasion of ukraine 13 months ago. he visited a children's summer cab and cultural projects. my deal brokered by the un and turkey along the export of ukrainian grain from the black sea has been renewed hours before due to expire. gifts of the agreement will continue forfour months gifts of the agreement will continue for four months while moscow claims it agrees to 60 days. now it is time for talking business. let's take a look at what is on the show. spy balloons, tiktok and taiwan. trouble is never far away from the us china relationship

so what do mounting tensions mean for the global economy? xijinping in a new term. joe biden halfway through his first, strains between the world's two biggest economies have deepened so what will it take to improve them? a growing number of us firms are looking beyond china to invest their cash. the president of the american chamber of commerce in china tells us why they're having second thoughts. that's despite us—china trade hitting a record high last year and with the president's increasing his power this expert tells us what this means. when will the rivalry have the consequences for the rest of us? we'll hear from the former head of the monetary fund's china division. the man behind brands such as intercontinental, holiday inn and crown plaza tells us by a big expansion is not stopping him sleeping despite the delicate state of the global economy.

welcome to talking business weekly. the us and china are the world's two biggest economies and for decades they have helped to power the global economy, meaning that when they do well so does the rest of the world, but there is a growing amount of hostility between them, whether it is spy balloons, differences over the war in ukraine, taiwan or coronavirus, those tensions are not always directly related to trade but they're having a growing impact on business deals. today the first shipment of some 480,000 bottles and cans of coke was loaded aboard a special train here in hong kong heading for china. trade and business have been at the heart of the us—china relationship since the end of the 19705 when the likes

of coca—cola and ibm became some of the first foreign companies to take advantage of china opening its economy up to the rest of the world. now, many of the world's biggest companies out there such as walmart and the drug maker pfizer. they are among the more than 900 members of the american chamber of commerce in china. it is one of the leading organisation is trying to smooth business ties between the two superpowers however, in their latest survey they found that for the first time, china is no longer a top three investment per priority for the members with most members thinking again about where to spend their cash. and a growing number, almost half, think china has become less welcoming to foreign companies of the last year. despite that sense of pessimism about the future, us—china trade had a record high of $690 billion last year, even amid the ongoing impact of the covid pandemic. and lacking in the in the background, the tariffs or import taxes that both countries have

kept him play since the then us president donald trump started the trade war back in 2018. the hostilities that he personified in the trade relationship have, if anything, deepened, spreading well beyond tariffs. since biden came to power, the us has posed sweeping restrictions on sales of technology to china such as semiconductors. restrictions on the likes of tiktok and moves to limit us investments in china. we made clear to president xi we seek competition not conflict. but i will make no apologies that we are investing to make america stronger. and then sting in industries will define the future that china intends to be dominating. i'm committed to working with china public in advance american interests and benefit the world but, make no mistake about it, as we made clear last week of china threatens our sovereignty we will act to protect our country, and we did. while china is not closed off to

other foreign countries like it used to be many are unhappy with restrictions they face and the lack of legal protections from chinese rivals, but beijing sees things in an unusually direct review for the united states earlier this month, xi said western countries, led by the us, have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented the severe challenges our country's development. and one of his ministers explained the impact on trade. translation: the the us has taken restrictive measures - against trade with china and damage the confidence and willingness of chinese and us companies to co—operate with each other. so what is the impact of all of this and the companies trying to navigate politics? the american chamber of commerce in china just released a new survey looking at these issues and i have been speaking to its president. great to have you on the program with us.

good to be with you. you've recently released a survey of your member and we're talking major companies like pepsi, johnson &johnson, general electric and so on, and paint a somewhat pessimistic outlook, doesn't it? companies are really tired after three years of covid zero. a number of things in china have made them look a bit more pessimistic. china has been growing slower and travel has been really difficult so companies in general, their responses were more negative than they have been in a long time. what does that mean in practice? are they not putting money into china in the same way? 74% said they are planning on leaving right now but it does seem to indicate companies are not willing to invest my money right now. they cited a number of reasons. number one, us—china relations is a top concern for the third year in a row. numbertwo, number of companies told us executives are just not willing to take expatriate

assignments in china and then overall there is political pressure which makes it difficult to do business in china. they are trying to de—risk their supply chain and so what that means is, when companies invest, they are looking at markets other than china so they're having a china plus one strategy and realising they can no longer rely on china. does it differ from sector to sector? while some are saying it is not a top three priority for investment, other big names like mcdonald's, starbucks, ralph lauren, a lot of those are expanding and going ahead with putting my money into china? you're right, by sector, it does vary. the consumer market is probably the place for most people are optimistic. the chinese consumer as they've gotten wealthier over time, they continue to be focused on buying foreign goods are brand america so retailers are doing relatively well. there are some sectors like tech where there are rules that say tech companies should not be investing here, a national

security concern. it is such a large economy that it's an important market for many foreign companies so people don't really want to divest from china. they do want to have a little bit more balanced particularly when it comes to supply chain and other issues. the chinese communist party is increasingly trying to control or at the very least influence china's private companies to make sure their interests are aligned with those of the state. many of those companies work with your members. how difficult does the blurring of the line between the chinese state and private enterprise make life for your members? it is a very complicated market and you are right. when the chinese government started to take a bigger role in private enterprises, it is space that we watched very carefully to try to understand where the dynamics are on the ground. in general, china has been a good market for us companies in the space that we can compete and now the line is starting to blur,

so we will continue to advocate for access but watch this space. where do you see any source of hope that relations could improve? one area for hope is us and china trade continues to flourish. our two economies are very much tied together whether people realise it or not in the truth is we cannot afford conflate because both economies depend on each other. we think that business from us companies in china continues to be a stabilising factor in this us—china relationship. thank you very much. thank you. china's economy is going through more reforms as president xi tries to shape it in his image so are those tensions with the us a threat to the ambition to get economic growth back up to 5% a year? i've been speaking to a chief economist. thank you for having me. despite the tension between us and china over so many things from covid to ukraine and those suspected spy balloons,

trade between the two countries hit a record high last year, even also with problems caused by china's covid lockdowns. why do you think that trade relationship is proving to be so resilient? ever since covid has started, the global dependence on china over creased rather decreased including the trade relations between china and the us. there was a strong dollar, overheated us economy and record high wage growth so the demand for china's export actually increased furthermore and i don't see that trend reversing any time soon. beijing has used the ambitions of corporate america to help fuel its economic growth but now that chinese growth is faltering in the country has huge debts, does beijing still want us companies to invest and if so why? beijing still wants us companies to invest in china

and that attitude, i don't believe, will change any time soon because, for one thing, foreign investment including that from the us is free money, and china needs all kinds of investments to provide a kind of financing and technology for its transition into a high—quality growth model. and right now there is still a high presence of american companies in china. some of them might have a pressure of outsourcing some work to asia or even back to the american continent but overall being in china for china is becoming a bigger trend. for a lot of the companies, the consideration is about how to take advantage of china being the largest single market in the world, and about the long—term sustainable growth so there are no emerging markets that can replace china. after the recent national people's congress and covid

lockdowns out of the way, what changes does china want to see and its trade relationship with the united states? the new economic policy is stressing about a lot economic security. last year, when we heard the reports of the party congress it was quite dominant about the supply side of the economy including the supply chain security, energy security and food security. it was unprecedented because, in the past ten years, before covid, it was mostly about how to stimulate domestic demand to promote a bigger and stronger consumer market, and now the narrative has changed. and when we have the cat the trade relations between the two, there is a clear decoupling in the high—tech sector and whether they can be more decoupling in other sectors remains to be seen, and we hope not but that is one of the biggest uncertainties. really good to have you on the program and to get your thoughts. thank you very much.

the united states and china — the world's two biggest economies by a long way. combined, they make more than 40% of the global economy so i've been talking to a former head of the china division at the international monetary fund who is now a professor of global trade policy at cornell university about how important the relationship is. welcome to the program. my pleasure. thank you. despite their political differences, tariffs, the restrictions of the covid pandemic, us—china trade to hit a record high last year. ho do you think they manage that and how important is it for the help of the wider global economy? the reality is china needs a lot of products especially technology products from the us. and the us has a lot of companies that run their supply chains through china, so these countries are pretty enmeshed with each other but, in addition, the tenor of global trade is set by the relationship

between these two countries. american companies are some of the most biggest and most influential in the world and, for years, they've been moving manufacturing to china with its cheap labour, but if that trend is firmly reversed, do you think it will inevitably result in higher prices and thus more inflation for the rest of us? first of all, it is going to take a while even for companies that might want to shift away from china because china is a very large country with a very strong manufacturing base, so finding alternative to china is not going to be easy. but there is certainly an attempt by american companies to shift away from china towards countries that are seen as being more geopolitically aligned with the us and where there might be fewer disruptions related to trade or other sorts of economic and political tensions. so this might mean higher prices but it might also means more stable output and production so, overall, consumers might actually benefit rather than lose.

xijinping is beginning a third term in office. the new people who have been promoted to help him on the economy. what do those choices tell us about the direction that china's economy is heading in, and what about its approach to trade with the us? one might see china turn to what's been the most state—dominated economy but many of the people being appointed to the top positions, especially in terms of economic and financial and regulatory agencies, certainly do seem to have loyalty to the president has important carrying card, but in addition these are people who have shown competence and many of the appointments and a lot of the key agencies do suggest that xi jinping wants to carry on in terms of continuity of at least very modest financial and market orientated reform so i think china does want to continue to engage with the us and the rest of the world but on its own terms. the talks seem to be

increasingly fiery from both president biden and president xi's administrations. do you think that is a sign that a bigger reckoning is coming and that trade relationships between the two might worsen, and what might the impact of that be? one hopes that reason will prevail and we'll get to a stage for the two countries recognise that economically their fortunes are to a significant extent tied together, and that being at loggerheads is not going to serve either of their economies very well. the difficulty right now is that the tensions are rising and spilling over into the economic sphere as well. and having politically based recriminations against each other might be one thing, but if this leads to escalating trade and financial hostilities, both countries are going to have to pay a cost. thank you so much for being on the program. it has been my pleasure, thank you. the travel and tourism industry is one of the most important

for the global economy. before they pandemic it accounted for 10% of the world'sjobs. that's more than 230 million positions. and while the worst of covid seems to have passed, the industry is asking when it will finally get back to pre—pandemic levels. it is one of the challenges facing intercontinental hotels group, one of the biggest in the world with more than 6,000 hotels spread across brands such as holiday inn. i've been catching up with its chief executive. a very warm welcome to the program. thank you for having me. i try globally, the un says that tourist numbers that you are still at only 63% of the pre—pandemic level. what has it been like for your company and how much longer do you think it will take to fully recover? it's been an extraordinary journey going through covid and into the recovery. and when you think about the world, the united states has principally recovered.

we saw sequential improvement every month in the second half of last year and ahead of 2019 levels. even the uk quite robust in terms of travel but the rest of the world was still shut down from portions of 2022 so asia—pacific began to open up in the second half and china opened up in the beginning of this year. so those markets will continue into 2023 and 2024, and generally people think the world will be recovered by 2025, but it is really exciting to see it. china is hugely important to your company. 10%, around 650 of your hotels, are there. what difference will it make to your company's performance in the coming year, now that china has finally lifted its covid restrictions? it is going to be very significant. that market was closed. effectively, hotels were shut down, people were not travelling are now restrictions have been lifted at his back. we saw chinese new year to be about 90% of 2019 levels. i looked at the first couple of months of this year, and we're about 96% recovered. so it's exciting to see. it will be a significant left

for our profits this year. your wider industry, travel and tourism, was responsible for 10% of the world's jobs. that's a huge number. since the pandemic, many countries have seen worker shortages. how much of a struggle is it for you to find the workers that you need? it has been a significant challenge for the services industry, without question, because we saw so many people leave the workforce. now that we're into recovery, we see people come back. and so we can use the us as an example. you saw the jobs report — they created 5,000 jobs in the us. 125,000 jobs were in hospitality and leisure. similarly, 100,000 in hospitality. they want to work for great companies so we have to continue to focus on great benefits, great pay, great experiences and career development to bring people into this industry. and where you might be struggling to fill vacancies, what kind of measures are you having

to take? because anecdotally, from my experience, i've been in hotels where the kitchen closes an hour earlier because they just don't have the staff. across the industry, we've had it withjust services. now over ten luxury and lifestyle they�* re still providing the same service beforehand. in more mainstream hotels you're going to see housekeeping be more limited. hours of operations in restaurants but as people come back into the industry we will expand their services over time. i think it's fair to say the global economy is in a delicate place at the moment. interest rates are rising and the cost—of—living is ever more expensive for many people, and you acknowledge there are economic uncertainties in your latest financial update. how concerned are you that consumers will view expensive hotel stays as just something they can't afford right now? when you look at our customers around the world, they tend to be more into the upper middle class

and to be quite affluent. and so when you look at their balance sheet today and again, talking about the us market is an example, there are something like 50% more savings than they had before covid and the ability to travel is what they want to do. we did a survey, and with discretionary spending, travel is one of the last things they wanted to stop. so tech companies and goods companies, services are winning, and travellers are at the front of that. people want to stay connected and think about how many meetings got postponed our family weddings and events don't happen or holidays got cancelled. we're seeing demand continue to grow around the world. you're planning to open something like 2,000 new hotels around the world across the various brands that are incorporated within your company. why do you think there will be enough demand to make that sort of expansion worthwhile? so if you look back over the past two decades, i think 18 out of the last 23 years, demand for travel has

grown faster than gdp. and so effectively, we have a growing economy around the world, travel will always grow faster than that. the only time it didn't was the financial crisis and during covid. we expect that trend to continue, and it's growing middle classes and rising wealth. it is the desire for people to stay connected and so we expect that demand to continue over the past couple of decades and that supports the new hotel developments around the world. of course, new hotels are very expensive projects, often requiring big loans. are high interest rates at the moment affecting the timescale? could you perhaps holding back on some of those plans? so around the world we are seeing, at an industry level, a slowdown of construction. so that is definitely happening because of the availability of construction workers and what is happening. great brands get landed too. we actually can go to the banks and help get that landing but it is though. grand breaks are about 50%

of what they were pre—covert. we did see an acceleration to q4 and we expect to see an acceleration in 2024, but it is going to be a slower growth environment. but the amazing thing is about share. so today we have 4% of the global hotel supply but 11% of the global pipeline so nearly three times as much. so you're definitely seeing us continue to gain market share around the world. inflation is in many countries now falling, but prices are still rising at a relatively fast pace. you've said that that means furniture and fittings are increasing in cost by 10% or 20%. how much of that are you passing on to customers in terms of higher prices? so we saw our average rates

and leisure increased by 14%. the businesses of about 7% so less than inflation overall. our prices have gone up but have not kept pace with inflation. we've been very focused on how to help hotel owners and operators reduce their operating costs. so effectively that's been how we simplify the supply chain, leveraging procurement solutions across food and ff&d, which is furniture, fixtures. and we've really been able to take cost out of how we build hotels and operate the hotel to make sure that our owners are given great returns and our customers are getting great experiences. are rooms getting more expensive? in the magnums have got more expensive, we expect rooms to continue to get more expensive, but not at the same pace as inflation. the certain sectors where you are seeing prices going up. what percentage are

we looking at for cost of room increases with things like food and energy are among the biggest rises? it varies around the world depending on what is happening with inflation. there are certain markets they greater china where we do not see much inflation. europe and the uk are facing energy increases that are so significant whereas the us see it as less ofan impact. pricing is varying from market to market and segment to segment, but overall it's around inflation in most markets. building all these new hotels takes a huge amount of concrete and steel, each of those for 7% or 8% of global emissions. you depend on people flying around the world — another carbon emitting activity. all of is damaging the planet. what are you doing to mitigate that? we have committed to our target of making sure we can reduce carbon emissions over the next decade, and it is going to be a really tough ask given the fact that it is not a super energy intensive industry but it is producing

greenhouse gas, so we've mapped out a number of things. energy conservation which we can deploy across our state. this will reduce our energy consumption. in the process now designing low carbon prototypes for new build hotels. we're also then going into different markets and negotiating energy contracts. so we've done purchasing power agreements in a couple of markets around the world to buy green energy, too, so we are able to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions last year and we will continue that year—on—year but it will be a journey for us to go on. you'll have to work with governments to decarbonise the grid make our hotels energy—efficient and think about how we can have less impact on the environment overall. keith, thank you very much. well, that's all for this week. you can, of course, keep up with the global economy on the bbc news website and you can reach me on social media. thank you for watching. bye— bye. hello. the weather on sunday is looking pretty good for most of us.

a lot of dry weather in the forecast. sunny spells right from the word go. but it's not going to stay completely dry. later on sunday, we are expecting some rain in the north—west of the uk, and it will be brought by this weather system you can see on the satellite picture. but ahead of it, there's a big gap in the clouds. there's a ridge of high pressure, hence things will be dry early on sunday morning, all but the extreme south—east and east anglia. there might be some showers earlier on but, on the whole, it is a dry start to the day for many of us. not particularly cold, between three and seven degrees, maybe a touch of frost in some rural areas further north. so here's the forecast for the morning. you can see lots of bright, if not sunny weather, but this weather front is fast approaching. let's have a closer look. england and wales in the south looking sunny around 3:00pm in the afternoon. temperatures will be about 13 degrees. the winds are light — very pleasant out there. skies turning a little more hazy the further north—west and north you go. in fact, already at this stage, rainjust about nudging into the western isles of scotland, and it's raining in northern ireland, so by no means is it a dry day. we are expecting that rain to reach the north—west through the middle part

of the afternoon and then eventually reaching the western fringes of wales, lancashire, the lake district, south—western parts of scotland and, come the evening, raining in the lowlands of scotland too. now, the forecast for monday shows another weather system moving across the uk. in fact, there's a succession of weather fronts waiting in the atlantic. it is is going to be an unsettled week. so here's the forecast for monday, that rain spreading across north—western parts of the country. notice it's not raining everywhere. it will be often cloudy, though, right across the uk and rain is possible almost at any time, anywhere. temperatures very mild, up to 15 degrees in some spots. and you can see these weather fronts gathering out towards the west on monday evening as well. and then tuesday onwards, these weather systems are racing across the atlantic, a large area of low pressure. it'll be breezy at times, but it's never going to get particularly cold. in fact, it's going to stay on the mild side. here's the outlook, then, for the week ahead. you can see a lot of rain icons

there, so a distinctly wet week in the forecast. but it'll stay mild — double figures across the board, even the mid—teens. bye— bye.

this is bbc news. i'm anjana gadgil. the headlines: donald trump says he suspects there are plans to arrest him on tuesday, calling on supporters to protest. president putin visits the crimea peninsula on the ninth anniversary of russia's illegal annexation from ukraine. a deal along the export of ukrainian grain from black sea boards has been renewed but it is unclear for how long. serbia and kosovo reach agreement on how to normalise relations according to the eu's top diplomat. the troubled swiss bank, credit suisse, reported to be in takeover talks, could be bought by its rival ubs.