and if that wasn't enough to restrain kimjong—un, how about "military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded" 7 the us president's tweet on friday. net, how much of this is horrible and bluster, and how much of it reflect a real change in the atmosphere of this relationship that has really been frozen in time for 60 years? the danger is we don't know. i will start by making a safe prediction. save if only because i am wrong, no one will be had to know. and that is i am fairly confident we are not on the brink of nuclear war. but should we be worried? absolutely yes. on the korean peninsular, even a conventional war could kill hundreds of thousands of people within a space of hours. in places like

seoul, which is only minutes away from conventionally armed missiles, tokyo, and the second perhaps equally serious problem is crises like these become was often by miscalculation or accident. without getting into pop psychology, what is dangerous in this one is you do not have to be a psychologist, you have a president of the us who appears to have no impulse control, who appears to have neither much knowledge of not interested in policy issues, history, and whose main interest seems to be donaldj history, and whose main interest seems to be donald] trump, and i think what is important to realise about everything he says, the multiple craziness is, is that it again reflects that this is a crisis thatis again reflects that this is a crisis that is about donald trump, and if you had him yesterday, rhapsodising

about the tens of millions of people who are behind him and who did not like that week george hw bush, george w bush, that terrible barack obama, and finally we have someone with muscle in the white house. and thatis with muscle in the white house. and that is not the kind of context in which you would like a crisis like this to play out. the north korean leader provides the sort of enemies that trump thinks makes him looks great. and versa. year the other male and he can bang the drum and legally done, but it is an interesting sort of sideshow. we had the good cop and bad cop at the moment in america. he is the bad cop quy: moment in america. he is the bad cop guy, who threatens and uses bluster and so forth, with very reasonable people around him who would not follow the trump line, so he cannot haveit follow the trump line, so he cannot have it all. while you say it is not

donald trump, it is also about the standing of american diplomacy in the world. you cannot allow a bull ina china the world. you cannot allow a bull in a china shop to have his own way and threaten a kind of brink from which we are all... i am with you on that, but he does have the nuclear codes after all. it is interesting, since trump came to the white house, we speak in a forked tongue about donald trump. one moment we talk about his pathologies, the next we say, and there is no way he will do it, and every time he does it. we need to decide whether he is fit completely have a logical... he has done a lot of things the past six months that would have been unthinkable. i think we cannot fathom the depths to which the man will plummet, we always say, oh, this date will put a brake on it, bureaucracy, military. buti this date will put a brake on it, bureaucracy, military. but i have seen very little sign... potluck

transgender in a military, which was extraordinary. you had a presidential order that as of today there will be no more transgender people in the military, any military ignored it. these questions pale before nuclear war. we don't know the military ignored it. we are told about diplomatic confusion and resistance. of a plot about known unknowns to quote donald rumsfeld,... gray unknowns to quote donald rumsfeld , . .. gray psa unknowns to quote donald rumsfeld,... gray psa giant now. laughter he was an intellectual on the defencejob, but he pointed out the things we'd do not know but think we know. that is ten times more the case now when we talk about north korea. i heard one commentator referred to north korea as the strange mix of confusion with death cult. nobody outside really understand the regime and therefore does not actually know how to

calibrate its response.” does not actually know how to calibrate its response. i am never surprised about what goes on north korea. i was a rush for ten years and communist rule, that is how they behave. that is what they do. the theory attempt of your self defence and try to make sure they protect their people and so on. but what i must say about this is the bbc should excuse me as i am the use and diplomatic language. we have two mad quys diplomatic language. we have two mad guys are diplomatic language. we have two mad guys are really mad, trump and that young man, as i say i am not very surprised about north korea. i don't think the young man would dare trigger a nuclear thing. trump, think the young man would dare triggera nuclearthing. trump, i would be very surprised if americans, sensible as they claim to be, all those guys that we all talk about, sensible people around him, but all the same, this guy is very unpredictable and is totally out of order in terms of... but but the

powers that he has. i feel very strongly that he is just laughing. how many times has he said, i'm going to build the wall, by my care, iam going to build the wall, by my care, i am dedicated away. almost everything he has said very loudly, he is not able to do. so i think that this in a certain way, we should see it as they will diverge in from the internal problems facing donald trump. you could save it the same thing about kim jong—un. extenuating circumstances about trump, but perhaps we should also consider that he is confronted with a unknown known north korean leader, and a old cold war years at least you have the certainty of knowing how the mindset of the soviet union picked, you kind of felt that you are ina picked, you kind of felt that you are in a safe environment, they subscribe to the same rules of

engagement, and so forth. you do not know that about north korea. so this line is that he employees could be a way to tweak out of the north korean mind, where do you stand? gray always try to find right in trump's case, always. laughter method in the madness. and that you should exchange notes after the programme. back in the cold war yea rs, programme. back in the cold war years, you were in moscow. the one area for potential optimism, because i agree with you, i don't think there are many adults in the room, but one of them is the secretary of defence. he himself said, he used the word catastrophic this week for the word catastrophic this week for the option of a war. he was standing that message to the white house is much to the rest of the world. trump cannot have everything. unless they put his atm number and substituted.

we will move onto another continent that has much to discuss. that is the question of south africa. two elections have taken place this week. south africa's president jacob zuma has survived a vote of no confidence and carries on, and kenya's president kenyatta is back in power. an election that are still being contested as we speak by degas, his long—time rival. vincent, so zuma goes on and yet the corruption allegations continue. what happens now? is there real reason to believe it could have been stopped?” is there real reason to believe it could have been stopped? i would try to defuse too much emotion about this question. kenya is fairly democratic, and basically if you

compare it to the neighbouring countries, uganda, elections were held in february, totalled the game and now we have seen results... we have not seen for example the military on the security forces and kenya being used to read the president. that seems not to have happened. usually what they have, and we thought last time when thousands of people died in kenya, is at the point of declaring this result, so bc sometimes inconsistencies and results that have been declared in constituencies and some that have been announced in nairobi. back has been a little bit of that. but not to the extent that could overturn the election. the man who is supposed to have one, who is doing the right thing, he has now issued a very conciliatory statement saying, iam issued a very conciliatory statement saying, i am very happy and ready to

work together. after the killings, they had to come into some sort of unity government. odinga are saying... have got their point of setting another unity government, but i believe very strongly and soon we might see odinga saying... laughter pot about him retiring? if he does it, there is a real risk of the type of violence that we saw before, perhaps not thousands of people dying, but... everyone seems to want to avoid that scenario, however passionate they feel about it, it is still enough within recent memory. there was opportunity to see that kind of virus before people pulled back from the brink. i think it was clear that the rewards would outweigh the consequences. that fact that kind of violence. when insecurity happened the first time, kenya was a thoroughfare for eastern

africa in terms of transportation and infrastructure, and when the la st and infrastructure, and when the last spate of instability happened, many african countries diversify their roots and pipelines, so i think in terms of regional instability, kenya has become less impactful. in turn la, it is pretty much settled into a 2—party, two candidate system which is good for stability, not necessarily very good for the better day. there is still this feeling in the best that they do not get their fair share of resources or their fair share of power. exactly. that is why i think whenever there is an election, the impulse is to immediately rejected because there isjust so much at sta ke, because there isjust so much at stake, that it seems unfathomable that one party has garnered all this support. but i think there will be a stepping back from the break and some conciliatory language being spoken. it is not quite as optimistic a picture in south

africa. strangely, given that there is no particular pilots on the streets because of the outcome of this zouma vote. but interesting that zuma has eight of these confidence motions, he wins everyone but this is the first one... he won by only one vote. suddenly, has the game changed? i think so. but like we had predicted this for years. i think what we are seeing now is signs within the anc that out of their own self—interest, they recognise, you have... the greater tragedy than president zuma himself who after all has raised corruption to an artform, he is about to answer 750 separate... he denies all the charges. i wanted on the record that

they are not true as well. all i'm saying is that he has held that position consistently, the party has stood by him. i covered south africa in the final, when a final stage of apartheid went back when mandela was released. if you take this to directory come from mandela's miraculous period in rule, where there were, even mandela recognises these huge economic racial and social issues, and he navigated that. you could argue that even under the becky, although not his chosen successor, he would have preferred... summit has got to see these to the historical prism. what

has set him isn't really that historical track of anc. that is the only way he was able to stay. the nearest equivalent in ahead of intelligence. one person, the young man who is heading what they call the economic freedom fighters. he came up just before the economic freedom fighters. he came upjust before the thing, and somehow said, well, look, there is something going on here. i would like to throw president zuma away. but there seems to be about the anc. some people want to derail the historical role of liberation and all that kind of stuff. that is what he was playing and it has helped him. how much longer can continue? that is of a century. it was triggered when the finance minister was sacked. who is he? this is

someone was sacked. who is he? this is someone who supports and was the front line for western economic system. someone who is really working for the big companies and taiwan. he is still being blamed and the anc is being blamed for not transforming the economy. that is why, even if so many people are supporting president zuma, they see it well, you are trying to kick him out because he kicked out someone very popular as of the west, and the world bank and so on. but that hasn't helped us. i'm struck by this, because i cannot compete with ned's distinct record of reporting out there, i was there for one particular event which was at pollok one a, a decade ago, when he was effectively dumped at a party candidate. i have a vivid memory of being at a reception, a diplomatic reception where there was a rather

diminished figure, physically rather frail, an intellectual figure diminished figure, physically rather frail, an intellectualfigure in the party. there was zuma, a powerful presence with great charisma, meeting the diplomatic greeting. palmer was shifting. he had not yet become president, but mbeki had been dropped as a candidate. if you were the anc man, you were effectively going to be the head of state. there was no issue. is that going to be the case next i'm? is it automatic or i'll be at a transition phase where anc and state are no longer inseparable? i think the anc is done very powerful in terms of grassroots support. the opposition is now being headed by black persons, but many people see that opposition as rappers and the white minority because of its history. the anc has a big chunk of support, but the only thing we're going to start seeing is the power struggle within the anc

itself between those who want to radicalise things, starting to do with the land issue and economy issues, and those who are not. we expect that when zuma goes, the next person will take all this over. but that might not happen if what i am telling you, this equation goes on, because he is now... goes back in re ce nt because he is now... goes back in recent history has evolved. he has crossed over and is very supportive of western business, a rich man and so on. of western business, a rich man and so on. he is not somebody who still caters for the small people. we have an urban elite coming into its own. they are probably getting tired of these post—colonial debates and the power structures and want to find some way of getting away from it and reconciling these divisions, and force them into a future state of affairs. that does not hanker back

to the post—colonial, post—apartheid struggle, and find a new... the issue of the colonial post—colonial, post—apartheid issues are still very, very powerful for south africa. for kainga it might be something different. people are studied move forward, but...m feels like a historical issue. for south africa, the story of liberation has not been told as yet. the people in the ghettos, the people who do not have much, they are still very strong and it will divide their struggles.|j are still very strong and it will divide their struggles. i agree. it is interesting, there is a perception outside south africa that apartheid was a long time ago. and that it was reconciliation and we have had the black leaders, but it is not really at all. it has not

really been written letter lompoc. there is still many axes to grind. when people say, it was so interesting to hear western commentators say, there is a generation that has post—apartheid that has now come of age. for them these things are, the struggles of their elders. that is not the case, it is completely irrelevant that lack relevant. if you see south africa, if there is no racial apartheid, there is an economic apartheid, there is an economic apartheid appals along racial lines. they wear indicators of real trouble re ce ntly they wear indicators of real trouble recently when the local south africans and on immigrants from nigeria. they really went out there. what it means is that anc of whatever government is going forward do not address the issue of lack of access to what everyone else is enjoying, south after sitting on an

explosion, goes back i want to move on. that makes the situation even more tragic than kenya. the anc isn't internal carl meyer, an internal anc members what i held onto their positions i cannot completely cut zuma. activated their confidence, they would have to go back and jockey for their own positions. he also have a nation thatis positions. he also have a nation that is handcuffed to the anc in terms of racial politics, but economically we have not measured economics, economically south africa is in dire straits. i want to mention economics is likely to be context, but one were to take pics of the general theme you're talking about. europeans are enjoying their summer holidays, but on wednesday, one spanish beach played host to a different sort of visitor. in one of the most striking photographs of the week, a rubber dinghy emerges from the surf on the coast near cadiz. people have jumped into the water and are running the last few feet onto the beach. a group of sunbathers has gathered to find out what's going on. this is a representation in one

picture of a whole process that has happened before and is happening in other parts throughout the middle east. we talked about libya as a way that people get into europe, who have a search for economic opportunities, many of them coming from sub—saharan africa and going to north africa, now evident we were talking about ten years ago a cross from morocco into spain is active again. much does this tell us about the continued economic and answered economically demand from africa? gray i think it says the things, that there is consistent economic pressure on north africa. if people have a root, they will take it. thirdly, there isjust more accessibility of information about these types of routes. even five years ago, the ability to find out things like social media, cheap phone called, voice over ip, the

routes today, was severely diminished. and now the flow of information smrs clearer, people scratch their heads and say, how do these people know, how do they know where to go when is notified routes or streets or signs saying... ? where to go when is notified routes or streets or signs saying...? it is because information is now free. on the routes don't matter. the point is the issue... people coming from africa, it will continue until we start having some economic involvement. the political stability and so on. we stop these was any middle east will stop the whole thing, of course europeans do not wa nt thing, of course europeans do not want us to come, but you are part of those problems. unless you stop coursing was and installing dictators, and we will still come. you close this route, we will find another route. just that you came to ours, we will find another route to

come here. it is about global inequalities, but it is also about politics of the world. how people are trading was... it is about history as well. and a fact that there are structural inequalities, not entirely attributable to one party or the other, but when you have structural inequality and where people want to make a life, they will find a way. and we build so much inflammatory language about this and we apologise a very simple impulse, which is just this and we apologise a very simple impulse, which isjust to escape from economic or war in security. as all those europeans did when it comes to your country of 500 years ago. and help to shape your country... to combine to our favourite tropic, donald trump. laughter gray your favourite topic. laughter goes like i think you have a bit of an obsession. laughter the central political and economic

truth of our age without being over the top, is that these things are not going to stop and that you can build walls and promise that the coal industry will start all over again, you can tell people that it is muslims or mexicans rather than microchips that is taking yourjobs. stop coming to the star bars and stealing our things and do whatever, europeans came to our places, we will come to you. everywhere. when we come here, you start saying, oh, stop it! that will solve your problem. that does a reasonable point to make. two years ago we had this young child dying on the shore, and it created a swell of sympathy for refugees. now this belt creates another impression altogether. the air. we have to stop this, we cannot

cope with it. we are in the middle of this and... thank you all as ever for a challenging discussion. that's all we have time for this week, but do join dateline london next week, same time, same place. goodbye. the weekend has had something of a mixed art, depending on where you are across the british trials. for some, decent spells of sunshine, although do not hold me to matt, staying in their right to the course of the afternoon. further south, along the south coast, at least in the south—eastern quarter, we have

seen an the south—eastern quarter, we have seen an old weather front thickening the clown, and the odd spot of rain, first up. do the north, and other weather system lurking in that band of cloud which brought quite a wet start to central, southern and south—eastern parts of scotland. this afternoon, we will drag that band of cloud and showery rain poundedin band of cloud and showery rain pounded in the north—east of england, iam hooked pounded in the north—east of england, i am hooked that kent and sussex will brighten up at some point. if we swing away to the south—west, you will see a decent afternoon. further north, just enoughin afternoon. further north, just enough in the way of cloud for b 12 passing showers to midlands. the biggest of the card will be closed by to that weather front on the eastern side of the pennines. showery burst of rain had a fairly leaden sky, by paul northern ireland, the greater part of scotland, some sunny intervals, dry weather, passing showers on the breeze across the northern part of scotland. further south, if breeze across the northern part of scotland. furthersouth, if you're planning on heading towards the athletics in the east of london, i do not think the weather will get in

the here. it is going to be quite a decent afternoon and evening for proceedings there. that weather front track the last of its showers offshore as we get into the small hours on sunday. a chilly night as the sky begin to clear, said attempt as well fall away. quite a chilly night fully north of england and and northern ireland. the user if you have got half an eye on the meteor shower, and it may well be that many areas are in with a chance of seeing some of that activity. we start sunday on a fairly cool note, but they will be plenty of sunshine as you get onto the day, cloud will develop and it will eventually fell in across parts of wales and the south—west. head of another weather front, working its way slowly but surely towards the british isles. there is all the wind and rain from it. monday will turn to be quite a wet day for these northern, central and western parts. best of the

weather in the east. in the this is bbc news. the headlines at noon: a fresh warning for north korea from the us president — donald trump says it will "regret it fast" if it continues to threaten america or its allies. they will be very safe. if anything happens to guam, there will be big, big trouble in north korea. police investigating the death of 83—year—old peter wrighton, third daughter are stabbed in london and are searching for a 27—year—old man. police investigating the death of 83—year—old peter wrighton, who was killed while walking his dog, have arrested a man in his 20's on suspicion of murder. will the government crackdown on laser pens? and london prepares to say goodbye to two legends at the world athletics championships. as mo farah and usain bolt prepare to run their final races