the, the building a new era and different nations that a new content and change and paying for the honda show of unity as they come from is grow increasingly dependent on each other. so as of russian presidents, a visit to china, a step towards shaping a new world order. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on a president's anatomy approved and, and she's been paying have much more than 40 times. the last 10 years signs of what the 2 latest cool a know limits partnership persians makes us. and as it comes, as it rushes dependents on, china has increased in the face of crippling west and sanctions imposed over some invasion of ukraine. bathing support has most of the russian economy. and although it hasn't directly supplied moscow with weapons, the flow of chinese technology and goods have helped floor efforts west and pals increasingly troubled by the deepening friendship between russia and china. with this collaboration extend beyond the borders and couldn't lead to a shift in alliances and the global balance of power will put these and other questions to i guess in a moment. but 1st this report by up to some denford the

. 2 2 2 symphonies to celebrate 75 years of diplomatic relations. so this is loading your foods in and she didn't things 3rd meeting in the year and pollutants 1st visit since the start of his 5th term in office. the president signed a joint statement on thursday, declaring a new era in what both countries called there are no limits partnership. strengthening economic ties that i've kept, the russian economy going, despite severe western sanctions being posed after its invasion of ukraine. trade between the 2 countries reach 240000000000 dollars last year, up 60 percent on pre war levels. as russia switched to importing goods from china. and crucially, to exporting cheap oil and gas boycotted by the west vladimir putin to visit and to boost this energy partnership. and then it gets just step street prostitutes

aligned to the energy sector, which is become the supporting pillar of the entire global energy and resources market. i'm sure we'll continue to strengthen a visit of symbolism to show that russia is not alone. despite the us increasing pressure on chinese banks and industries not to contribute to russia's war effort, we can see some indications of china maybe use tiring of the situation. the crane and the difficult position. it puts it in visa feet, russia, which is an important political partner. but then on the other hand, b you us, which are much more important training parlance and be seen on his visit to friends earlier this month. she agreed to control but not reduce exports, of multi use goods to russia, alongside pollutants, he presented china as a stabilizing force from the phones. each of the both sides agree that a political solution to the ukraine crisis is the correct direction. the chinese

side looks forward to the early restoration of pace and stability on the european continent, and will continue to play a constructive role to that end. the 2 also took aim at the united states on a range of security issues from ukraine to taiwan, saying they seek a counter balance to a us led world order that they both challenge to. so i'm getting food alda 0 for inside story on the spring and i guess and the market senior research fellow at center for china and globalization, he joins, as by skype from badging. joining us for most go as chris, we saw his chief executive officer as a macro advisory. that's a global list consultancy and theresa fallon is director of the center for russia, europe, asia studies. and she's joining us by skype from brussels. a very warm welcome to all of you, mr. mark. i'll start with you in the aging. i think it would be fair to say that

china is the dominant partner in this relationship. so what's that up ahead? what will the aging be looking for from present during this visit or? well, elizabeth, i think the view from china and a growing consensus around the world is that the world is at a dangerous juncture, where peace and stability are threatened by us instigated actions. but for the united states, tens of thousands of innocent palestinians would still be alive. but for the united states, the conflict in ukraine would be far less disruptive than it has been. and finally, but for the us, tensions in the south pacific would not be anywhere near as high as they currently are. so i think what china is looking for in these latest discussions with russia is how to mitigate ameliorate these challenges to global peace and

prosperity. but of course, i think from the russian side of the situation, ukraine is most acute, but i think both sides recognize the wide spread diapers, threats to peace and prosperity in that concrete and meaningful action has to be taken to. okay, so mr. mark saying that china is very much looking to improve global pace and security in a partnership with russia and the united states in the west very much sees china and russia as one of the biggest problems to global peace and security. mr. we for, let's, let me bring you in before we can talk about what the person will be looking for during this visit. i do want to address what bruton has already got from china in the last few years since the russian invasion of ukraine. how much has russia's

economy? it's a defense complex being impacted by western sanctions. and what role has china played in both store in both a big china has been critical. is russia some of adapting and being able to adapt to, to the sanctions over the last couple of years? china is the biggest contributor to the russian. but just because of the fact it's the biggest buyer of oil and other materials. of course, everything from timber to, to island lumina, and we rushed to china is the biggest buyer. they're getting a good discount, of course, which helps to compare. it's just as of the chinese economy. but it is huge, steady cash flow into the russian budget. and that of course, has the money which is being used to fund the military industrial complex as well as provide. so it'd be cut down because dependency. so china is being critical. of course the, the preparation for building up this trade. it hasn't just comes in egypt reaction

to the defense of to sanctions. russian, china, i've actually been building up the relationship since sanctions for star, because after crime did spring of 2014, for example, the built, the big east library and pipeline get oil pipeline which takes more than a 1000000 barrels a day, directly into china. and also, of course, heavy investment into elegy and other materials. so china has been very critical in supporting russia's economy and therefore allowing the russian economy to, if you'd like to survive and to be in what is a good position today. all right, let's tell them what did you make of adding marks, remarks about what china is looking for. from russia, you know, these are we advancing global pace and security. and i also want to ask you when the 2 countries talked about how the partnership has no limits and not the 1st time they've said that they've said it for a few years. now, i want to know is that really the case? do you think?

can china continue to support russia despite the economic, the diplomatic cost? well, thank you, elizabeth. i think andy's paper book must be alice in wonderland. look into the mirror because i really don't recognize anything. he just said. we just saw. she can ping visited europe and the visited friends hungry and serbia. and she didn't think it's very difficult balancing act here to mean the size of the russian economy is smaller than that of italy. whereas for china, europe is a key, a economic market for them. and they're, they need to have a very careful balancing act, trying to help pretend because of their no limits agreement that was announced in february 2022 just week days prior before the invasion of ukraine and, and then they have to type kind of try to tote, your of that, we're not really supporting putting when we see all the figures that chris we for just noted that this helps keep the military industrial complex going and buying

this low cost. oil and gas actually fills the paid a box for to keep the war going on and ukraine. so i think that she just ping is fearful of losing these markets. york is actually talking about the risking and they've announced a lot of investigations into possible dumping. foreign direct investment issues are becoming coming to a head and all sorts of electric vehicles are piling up at the ports for example. so i think the china is in a very difficult situation, but now they're in it when it, because they have their, in one sense, had cost to put in. and so they don't want to see putting fail because they're fearful. the, the next leader russell might be more westbridge leading, so they need to keep russia inside their tent even though they pay a huge reputation on costs for that to. yeah, as mr. mont, china has been trying to walk into plastic type, troy presentation, balancing support for russia, while not antagonizing countries in the west. i mean,

russia is something like china's on 6th largest trading partner. it does much more trade with the us. and the issue, is it really possible to route that tightrope successfully? i think certainly it is. um, elizabeth and we can look at this from a more negative perspective. as i think theresa laid out the western view. i think a more positive take one. this is that china plays a very important role to russia as we've just for it plays a very important role to europe as well as the united states. some of the issues that are impacting the us china relationship and the you, china relationships are actually going to be sentence of what's going on with russia. so i think china has a number of very, very powerful of cards to play. if we look at the transition to a sustainable economy,

there is little doubt that china is the technology leader in key components like batteries. it has the manufacturing scale to produce low cost, high quality, technologically advanced vehicles, as well as the design capability to provide consumer facing products that consumers really cherish. so uh the you of course has some concerns about this in terms of what this will do to their domestic auto. ready industry, but this is not just trying to eaves, we also have to recognize the transition from internal combustion engines to the manufacturing is also disruptive to the traditional ottoman motive industry. so yes, there are complex issues, a hard thing to call it. a balancing act is certainly not incorrect, but i think china is position is much stronger and it can play it much more

powerful and pivotal role in bridging between russia and the u, including even the united states, i would say, okay, well, that's the way one of the cap issues got discussion is of course, financial transfers between the 2 countries off of the us and post secondary sanctions in december. you know, on banks that are doing business with sanctions, individual sanction companies, also sanctioned products. how much of an impact all those 2nd re, sanctions, those nations, secondary sanctions having on this relationship to those sanctions, which kind of crept up in his last december day where he, where he, where and sort of, you know, it made a big deal at the, at the time, but those particular sanctions that are actually now causing the biggest problem, potentially pose the biggest risk for their, for russia's economic stability. because the rush of course is being able to find ways to export goods date because fleet saved getting around to probably the price gap. but if it can be paid for those goods, of course,

then you can see that would be a major problem. and this has been a growing problem which trade partners as since the beginning of the year since the us really made kind of a big efforts to get the message across to banks in china and turkey and the emberts in india. it's actually that they are running the risk of secondary sanctions if they are found to be involved in any transaction with a sanctioned individual or entity or as or a sanction process such 6 or so we've seen, as you alluded to, lots of banks in all those countries just pulled back from russia and like take the, the, the caution we step of not to gauging it any from pencil transactions with restaurants . and this is causing a huge problem. so it is definitely is one of the top topics, or one of the main issues that president putin wants to talk to china about. they want to find a political solution to this. some way to to financially channel does not get blocked. unpacked rush, it can be paid for the products, it's selling china,

as well as being able to pay for the products that it's important from china. and it's exactly the same conversation displaying that were present, present air to gun from turkey, a with, with prime minister modi and with the head of the, the average. this is a huge problem and it definitely be, i think it's fair to say it's not all that the only reason why president putin decided to go to beijing so quickly after an operation 30 there factors. but it's definitely one of the most pressing problems that they need to resolve otherwise. just okay. yeah. as major. that'll be by the, by the order. yeah, absolutely. i sold it march the seals. this. yeah. so an 8080 percent of the payments settlements from russia to china and balancing at one point. and that's according to a pro kremlin business newspaper ms filing. you know, this week the us state department accused, she's in pings, administration of rebuilding rushes military, industrial base. i'm freshman what quote, appropriate action. so even as we see the great impact of those 2nd re sanctions

that came into force in december, could we be looking at more action and what might that look like? and they have been signaling very loudly that this is what they plan to do. now if we look at the sanctions of chinese companies compared to europe, the us presently has about $100.00 and you're only has 3. so they might of course, uh, or put pressure on your up to actually sanction more. and what china is very fearful of are the secondary sanctions. so this is something that, that is some leverage that the us has. and i think we also have to remember, according to patients narrative about sovereignty, we saw a rasa in beta software in country, and according to the, the p, r c. they, they are against that. so there's a lot of kind of of hypocrites here because you don't say that china is going to be a bridge builder when they're actually supporting defacto russell as invasion of ukraine. and we've seen increased exercises with jets over

a nuclear public, capable carrying jets over or near the waters of japan. we're seeing more of china, russia, maritime cooperation and exercises. so i think it's not that they're so far away from, from russia. in fact, they're doubling down under cooperation and i think she jumping really miscalculated. he didn't understand how the russia threat was such a huge issue for the europeans. i think he thought it was just not a big deal. they wouldn't pay too much attention after 2014, with the exception of crimea. we saw germany signed a gas fuel just one year later. so i think he didn't expect that europe would see this as such a, a major concern and a top priority for them. so i think he didn't expect to have such a push back from the europeans as well as the americans as a lot, how much of a concern is the war and you're crying for changing, paying as an asylum mentioned. you know, russia has been carrying out military exercises using tactical nuclear weapons.

surely china does not want to see this i think china is position has been consistent and universal in that dispute should be so. ready through consultation, mutual respect, etc. now we know that the real world can be much messier than that. unfortunately, i think that with respect to the ukraine conflict, it's well recognize that there's 3 wars that the us is biting your. i think their strategy has been well articulated in many parts of the world to fight russia down to the last ukranian in that there is the battlefield in ukraine. there is the propaganda war being far on western media. and there's also the financial war as well that i think this is the one that really is front and center for many

trainings, policy makers. and that when we look at the dollar gemini, in terms of us dollar as a courtesy trade us lift is that these are issues that clearly are on the agenda between china and russia. but the developing accelerating. i think the need for alternative financial systems that are not weaponized and this in the long run is going to be highly detrimental. yeah. to the united states. i was just going to put yeah, i'm going to ask mr. lisa, about, you know, china and russian doing most of the trade in their own currencies. next, i just wanted a quick answer from you, mr. mark on. does china want russia to end the war with ukraine? yes or no. and i think the answer certainly is yes, isn't it? but again, i think that we can uh there,

there's clearly different views on the cause of this conflict. and i think theresa has one set of believes about this. many other people around the. ready and i would say most of the people outside of the angle forward a sort of a sort of the angle for world have a completely opposite view as to the cause of the conflict. so i think china and definitely wants to see this conflict resolved through a political mechanism as i believe presidency has said, yeah. and the political mechanism that they for, for one is absolutely not acceptable to cave or any of that. so west and back as mr . we for the month to touch on, you know, the, the increase in trade, in fact, 90 percent of presidents, she and pollution say 90 percent of trade between the 2 countries is taking place and their own currencies. now is that significant as well? yes, it is. uh and uh, again, a, refer to the sites that uh, both china and russia have were preparing. don't be in the 2nd word preparing for

the scanner. what happens since february 22, but we're preparing kind of, you know, for, for some level of independence or for some different systems from air. the 2014, i mentioned your pipeline, but also put a taste in that period was a direct settlement system between the central bank of russia and the central bank of china. so in other words, it doesn't, a payments settlements between the 2 countries and no longer rely on using, for example, swift, which of course, russian banks, most of russian banks have been stated from. so they've done a lot of power to work. and this of course is feeding into the, the emission like us to say to expands the bricks formats and may have into something bigger and, and maybe, and something that's, yeah, i know alternative to, to china and russia see is as, as western dominance. so i think a big part of the conversation there for the let in the last couple of days will be about preparing for the next break summit,

which is held in the tobar. because we now have quite a few candidate countries, including saudi arabia, the average egypt, and the others that will have to decide by a tobar, whether you are going to formally join and expand it breaks and russian, china will, i think, move on to be quote, we want to coordinate what messaging that they want to give to those countries and what message don't want to give at breaks. and a big part of it will be about trade, cooperation, about financial sections. it was the independence of the dollar. and some extend creating, you know, an alternative economic system or maybe not so much economic system, but he cannot make kind of a philosophy within. and they spend the brakes to combat with the west rather than the parts of the as they see it. the western dominate is of the economic world. yeah, and i'm glad that you push into the conversation as we approach the end of the show . you know what the, its relationship between china and russia also means all the lines, as most notably, brooks,

they are looking to expand this call. and i want to ask you about, you know, what washes invasion of ukraine has meant for china's view towards taiwan. has it emboldened to china or perhaps made it more cautious? if i could just pick up on one point, you know, one of the easiest ways to end this war is for it, russian troops to leave. you can, we don't need all these like speaking points. all we need is for russia to leave ukraine. second point would be that, yes indeed. this is a big distraction. the were and you can because it was a and you said to of china would love to see it and try it away. but i don't think that's the case because it's distracting us attention from their most important competitor, which is china in the, in the pacific region. and so this is a useful distraction for them. and china is learning a lot of things about stress testing the economy. we just talked about the payment systems, they've also learned about the inexpensive john worst there and also how the

ukrainians communicate it using star link. and so they, they looked for ways to prevent this happening in taiwan. so on one hand, they think that if you open the pandora's box of war, there are very unexpected things that could happen. that means put in expected, this were the engine 3 to 5 days. now we're starting, we're in the 3rd year this. so that is not something i think it's, she jumping with what we'd want, something quick and easy, but there are other ways you can squeeze the country. there are ways of, you know, winning without fighting. and so i think that if there's any positive aspect of the horrific suffering and death in ukraine is that it might have given, she can pause to think about impeding type one that we know the language that's being used. be prepared for war by 2027. the type of narrative is coming out of china. young people, you know, really talking about war. and it's really ugly, it's, it's really discouraging. and i know we all want to be optimistic and have an optimism bias. but i think that, you know, beating the war drum and this, this period,

i think what has been clear under siege and ping is that he is more interested in security rather than the economy. so the economy is already facing horrible head winds, never democratic problems. i know there will be sanctions probably are to increase terrace under exports and we've seen what happened in the us 100 percent terrace on there. i'd like to give you a piece. so there's going to be a lot of pushback from the us and europe. i expect that to happen as well. so i think that they have to calculate very carefully and, you know, be helping themselves to put in and pretending that they're not so closely aligned with them when, when all we see is deeper a convergence and even their statement when they're holding up those little documents that they just signed, you know, the, they're, they're, they're noticing that payment deeper cooperation. and of course we're not. we don't see what's in those documents in the secret. but i think that this is something that the rest of the world should be concerned about. and we're seeing

a growing bifurcation, they want to have a separate economic area. they want to have a big spheres of influence. and they think that this is something, and that's a month we all learned what happened about the spheres of influence and the post world war 2 era was supposed to make it, you know, globalization free trade, all of these positive things. and we're seeing she and putting doubling down on something that we didn't expect to see. again, this growth of authors during this i'm yeah, let's face who's, who's running to move to russia? who's running to move to china these days? oh, yeah, the lift them off. would you like to come back on that on whether china can really afford this closeness with russia given all of those precious? well, not surprisingly, i see this completely differently. i think that clearly, as we've spent this program talking about that china and russia are spending its ties. but look at breaks,

look at what's going on with your on look at what's going on with our set, the regional comprehensive economic partnership, china really deepening ties throughout the world, even in south america, latin america, with brazil, that really a europe is a question mark. certainly, i think theresa makes great point. there are legitimate concerns that the europeans have about how to adapt to world where it is chinese and checking the logical leadership. it is chinese manufacturing costs competitive lives and it, it is the chinese build quality that is leading the way when we thinking of automotive used to be the germans. so this one has a huge show, and i think that they are concerned about russia. what are russians long term intentions are, these are legitimate concerns, but i think there's a question mark here. and again, i think china is on a far,

far stronger and more influential position than i think theresa's or try or i think, well, we have run out of time, but thank you for all of i guess for this very nicely debate that is and the welcome page and chris wafer in moscow and theresa fallon in brussels and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, which is 0 dot com. as a further discussion do go to a facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i handle this at a j inside story for me, elizabeth put on him and the whole team here, bye for now. the the latest news as it breaks this year's march. it's a message, not just for the cards government, but also for the incoming ones that they're not going away until they know what happened to their loved ones with detailed coverage,

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thought provoking on to who they to say, no double standards to all of us any, any one in particular. i said, all facing realities government seems here to whittle down democracy. it's because it's troubling for you. it's very, very painful here. the story on talk to how does era the the problem. so robin, you're watching the out. does it renews online for my headquarters here in the coming up in the next 60 minutes? these are the falls is target homes in ross, or in southern gauze or killing. at least old people, emergency work sites. the volume is maybe trump under the rubble. there are trucks on the other side, waiting to get in with desperate material that people need. and it's absolutely vital we get those crossings over 10 trucks with a.