prime english farm land under was a month stuff. the devastating storm swept the country. the levels of slow the receding, but the damage has been done. a few weeks ago, these fields resembled an inland sea. the only way to get to the house was by boat should all be planted, should be great farmer henry would find himself facing a financial bottle caused by massive storms, an 18 month supply or a cold rain full. it's up say the horizon, the, you know, i'm a young farm, a call a baby on the way, trying to provide for my family. and this is how i meant to in the living is by producing food and selling it. and if it's covered in mall, so i can't do that and you get up every day to say phones, you know, looking like this. and you just wondering, well how enough i'm going to carry out. well, property can be insured against flooding crops in the ground. cons, so the estimated loss of not bringing in the hub is to,

will run into hundreds of thousands of dollars. the soil onto the water is some of the most for the child in the country. but clearly, no crops will be produced from it in the next few months. and the form here faces the real risk of a flooding again. and that means food which should be making its way onto the market in the coming months from here was a few kilometers away. some planting has been taking place after the land was heavily plotted, but it has been a struggle. and that's reflected the national picture, hopefully we normally 60 percent food efficient in this country. i think realistically, i'll be down in the lower fifty's and with what's going on around the world and how we can't rely on importing all of these. all these different types of vegetables that even better else, we need to be around 70 percent self sufficient to make sure, okay, som is, are adaptable, but increasing the find them. so what's on the front line of climate change, boats here and around the world. it's very, very difficult. they've got the sci fi,

they've got to work with politicians, with government, with different agencies, network communicate to consumers, do as much as they can. but ultimately there's probably digital that in many circumstances they can do. the u. k. government says, which is supposing agriculture, but many farm is believe they need to go further to the trying to establish how to make this land viable. well, to have it, the future brings and the he would, i'll just there in lincolnshire stay with us. the bottom line is coming up that the, the latest news, as it breaks, the doctors who say the witness to killing knew exactly where to with detailed coverage. everyone is telling us they do not recognize their houses. they do not

recognize their areas from the hall to the story. these attacks are taking place also was had a city and are on the roads, making it very dangerous for them to commute from one place to another. a. hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. israel's war on god that'd be coming a forever war. and now with an exchange of direct attacks between iran and israel is it'd be coming a dangerously expanding conflict. let's get to the bottom line. the it was a limited strike, but the rubicon has been crossed. it one launched a few 100 rows of missiles and israel, after israel attacked in iranian diplomatic mission in syria and killed some of it stop generals. then israel fired rockets into iran, not doing significant damage, but nonetheless, and get this. israel and iran are now overly targeting each other's homelands. directly. it prove that the rules of the game in the middle east are changing,

especially after israel responded to a ron's response. and with the failure of the world's big powers, especially the united states, to achieve a ceasefire and gaza is further escalation, inevitable. today we're talking with some of my dc professor of history at the university of california and author of faith misplaced the broken promise of us era relations. and ality via is iran project director at the international crisis group . thank you both for joining us today. let me just start with you. allie. you wrote a week ago, oppression articles, thing in the middle east could still explode. this was before israel had launched a rock into the wrong, i might call that, you know, strike, given the little damage. is one sort of a polite strike after this, but what his change now in the, not only in the gaza israel crisis, but in the regional dynamics, particularly between iran and israel. it's good to be with you, steve. look in any geostrategic competition. the most dangerous moment is when the

party start changing the rules of the game is, are across the line by attacking your honest consulate in damascus. and then iran cross the line for the 1st time in the past 45 years by directly attacking israel from its own territory. so of a now israel has, of course responded, but it has responded still in a limited and stealthy fashion, which i think still falls within the previous rules of the game of combat thing. iran in the grey zone of their competition. so one can conclude that this chapter is closed, but i'm not sure if the parties have the same understanding of what are the new red lines. what are the new rules of the game and in that ambiguity, i think there is plenty of space for miscalculation. and of course the approximate cause for these tensions which was the war and gaza is ongoing and there is currently no ends inside. and so there is still plenty of risk for expansion of that conflict and regional conflagration. i know you've just said that this chapter

is probably close, but what is the next chapter look like potentially in the region given the fact that the underlying instability with guys it continues. there are plenty of risk. first of all, we still don't know for sure. if the attack that is ro, as conducted on iran binding 3 messiahs into a military base and is behind it is a one off or is it previewed for more to tax the com that is still not clear. second, at some point israel would enter into rafa. i think that seems inevitable. and when that happens, given the humanitarian situation in gaza, it is quite possible that we would see increase tensions iranian back to groups in iraq and syria. my resume attacks on us forces that they have now stop since late february. and there's also the possibility that at certain point we would see a complex ration between israel and his butler. i mean, they are now so at a low level of complex, but i think these raise are extremely uncomfortable living right next door to his

boss capabilities, given the trauma of october 7th. and if is what it ends up in a confrontation with his beloved again, given the unclear new rules of the game, there is a risk of another round of escalation with iran. and now that both parties have done unprecedented things targeting you try to directly, i think the risks are much higher and both the running is real, by the way, have demonstrated in the past few weeks that they don't have a clear understanding of one another. i think it's now clear that israel target into ron's consulate, expecting that iran would just absorb the attack and would not respond. and iran targeted israel, thinking that is ro is not going to respond, which in both cases have turned out to be an accurate a professor, my dc. i really just a couple of months before october 7th, there was this active period of diplomacy around expanding potentially the abraham accords, perhaps greeting a normalization between saudi arabia and israel. tell us about how normally october

7th, but the ron is real exchange. tell us what the middle east looks like now at this moment compared to 9 months ago as well. i mean, obviously it depends where you are in the middle east, but the starting and gaza, i mean it's ground 0 for a, a catastrophe. a genocide that the united states has funded equipped apologize for enabled, continued essentially. so you were asked that the beginning of the forever war is quite clear that this war has been going on on the palestinians for decades and decades since the neck above 1948. and arguably, since the creation of the british mandate in palestine, and as long as that sort of that core issue, the issue of the injustice of the palestinians, the issue of the oppression, the issue of their state looseness, the total abandonment by the united states. of course, by israel, but also by the arab states of the palestinians. if not, continues, we're going to see more and more of this conflict. so i think that's

a situation that's the, that's the, that's the, the tinderbox that, that leads to the kinds of continual flareups that we see in other parts of the middle east. there are other complex, obviously, that are not tied necessarily to pablo's time, but the core issue has to be resolved. and we're seeing a massive, extraordinary failure of leadership, of imagination and frankly, of racism on the part of the united states towards the palestinians. so that's where we are right now and the wrong and israel and their sort of shadow or, and their direct whereas your other guests are, they just mentioned. that's just another element of escalation in an already intolerable situation. now we know that there had been findings within the state department that indicates that certain is really military units have engaged, potentially, and extra judicial killings and other human rights violations, into specific individuals and companies inside the israeli forces. i guess my

question to you is, given the fact that there had been so such a little move and such little success by the president the united states, even in trying to re stain his real even trying to restrain is real on this issue of attacking iran what is the us hand and this any more from your perspective? i mean the us hand is direct and total complicity. it's not that the us can restrain, as well as the us doesn't restraint, israel, after all, i mean, and you could say, there are domestic reasons for that. there is a lobby. there is ideology, there is, there is whatever. there are many different reasons why the us doesn't strain israel, but it's not that the us can't restrain israel. i think the, the bottom line of all this is that there is been a consistent us policy of marginalizing the palestinians, ignoring public sending oppression, ignoring publicity and suffering, trying to build a regional sort of architecture of domination that ignores the people of the region . all the peoples of the region, frankly, their democratic aspirations,

their desires to be free. and instead to sort of cement the relationship between arab despotism is on the one hand. and israel, which oppresses and colonize as the palestinians on the other. and the issue really goes back to decades of u. s. foreign policy in the sense that the us feels and is felt for decades. that it can get away with, with the basic form in that which is extracting petroleum and, and dominating the middle east, strategic geographic areas at the same time, forcing israel, as it is, as it reveals itself to the entire world today on the arrow populations, irrespective of their wishes irrespective of their desires, irrespective of the desires of freedom. and so far, they feel they're able to maintain this, this policy. and until that changes, we're not going to see any kind of peace or any kind of security or any kind of stability, frankly, in the middle east, you cannot build stability on the basis of profoundly immoral,

unstable foundations alley. um, somebody said something that caught my ear and very important i think that even the arab states have been somewhat on the sidelines of this conflict have not taken actions that would necessarily lead to a resolution of justice and, and, and substantial statehood for palestine. i guess my question is we're writing now potentially making a mistake of completing the is really wrong conflict with the as rare is real guys a conflict. they're both happening at the same time. i look at them in a as an escalation from israel's perspective. but how high on the priority map for iran is the palestinian crisis? and unfortunately, i think the apollo sent me an cause is a tool for iran. iran in the early 1980 is in the midst of the run iraq war. realize that it's strategic solitude is, is basically disastrous for the regime. but it really didn't have a lot of options through games for teaching the depth and to be able to project our beyond as borders as a persian nation, surrounded by arabs and turks. and as a she

a nation surrounded by sunny the one thing that allow that steve to project power and transcend all of these inherent limitations, was the palestinian cause, which was left on the ground by the arabs, but by run has instrumental lives. and it doesn't necessarily mean that iranians are too concerned about the palestinians well being. and i think in fact, the one thing that is real could do that would undermine iran for within the region . was to do exactly what osama was talking about to try to actually come to a sustainable settlement with the policy. and that will be a nightmare scenario. i remember steve, when the trump administration was putting the deal of the century on the table to to resolve those really patterson and crisis the sooner the official told me. after looking at the package. this is great for iran because there is nothing in it for the palestinians, meaning that the opposites would actually we can iran position in the region. and i also want to say something about the us as role,

at least on the strategic level. it's very interesting that in the past few weeks since is really attack on iran and consulate in damascus. the us, in fact has tried to prevent the expansion of this conflict. it has been now we know in direct and indirect contact with the ryans, there was literally a hotline to establish true amman, so that iran and the us could coordinate when iran was going to strike israel to try to limit the casualties and the damage. so that it doesn't spiral out of control and clearly what is or it has done in response, if it's a one off, is all also limited, which i don't think would have been achieved without us pressure. so although i agree with a lot of auto salma said, but i think the binding of ministration deserves a bit of credit for trying to maintain, can contain these tension or somebody want to respond to that. yeah, sure, of course, i mean, i mean the bodily ministration deserves credit for allowing the genocide to

continue for now as you sat at the outset of your show for 7 months. so i'm not sure what kind of credit one gives the button illustration. clearly the united states does not want a regional war and the sense of expanding their they're fine with having the palestinians be slaughtered before our eyes. the west just be towards yesterday or the day before. the security council resolution sort of advancing palestinian statehood as nominal, and that's the radical and it's conceptual that that is in theory the us claims to be for a 2 state solution. yet us policy is characterized by essentially on the one hand, an extraordinary degree of anti palestinian racism. and on the other hand, a ludicrousness in terms of its contempt for its own statements to state solution peace in the middle east ability and everything. the west seems to do is to pretend that somehow you can build the stable middle east without resolving the palestinian question. and then to at least point to about the the business of even using the

palestinian cause as a tool. i think the word he uses tool. now i don't doubt that the iran, like the irish states previously. instrumental lies all states instrumental as all sorts of issues. so i don't doubt that whatsoever. on the other hand, i think the more salient question that one should answer is why is the tool there to begin with? why is there a palestinian cause to begin with? what's the history, why other palestinians left it in, in the extraordinarily unacceptable situation that they are? why does it run? and before iran, iraq, and before iraq, egypt and before, you know, all these other states, syria, all these states have used the power, the new question precisely because there is something extraordinarily immoral and ethical that everybody in the region. and i, i would argue today, everybody in the world honestly can see is unacceptable and want to end. and so, of course, states use every piece of leverage. they can every tool so to speak, they use, but they use it because these tools exist and we should focus,

rather than on trying to is to say that they're just using the tools, understand why the tool is there and why people, why, why it creates such and such a sense of injustice in the middle east among arabs for sure. but also i suspect among many iranians as well, i'm almost certain of that. so i'm a, take me for one further step, you know, in the abraham accords. it was an effort we saw in our, in the lab, essentially of trying to find normalization and strategies in the region without resolving the palestine conflict has that palestine conflict now resonated with the so called error st. so much and created distance within those governments. those monarchies and those government arrangements within each of these arrows states. you know, i'm thinking of jordan, which has a, a normalization peace treaty with, with israel. and you're seeing on the street major protest demanding that the government suspend its relationship with israel. what is the distance now, the dynamic within each of these governments that this causes a crisis has caused,

i told him to abraham records as an insult to, to, to the common revere tradition of all the spiritual of all the ecumenical, and the desperate coexistence in our part of the world, it's really a relationship between an expansionist as well that doesn't pretend nothing to who is very clear. they don't want to give the palestinians freedom or the state. and arab states that are based on despotism. based on the fact that there is a huge gap between our populations as much as towards the palestinians. it's also domestically, there's no democracy, there's no freedom in most of our world. if i can go across the air in the world and it's not absolute to them and despotism, that is the us requirement for a so called peace process that is based on marginalizing the palestinians. so i agree with all the us was genuinely concerned with stability. we've actually making them as a least a prosperous place, right? they would certainly have pushed for

a peace process that actually solves once and for all right. the palestinian question nally. i want to ask about president biden, and america's brand and american power is perceived in the region. you know, i had this frame that america is perceived as an all powerful player, a very powerful player in this, but seemingly impotent when it comes to really influencing the course of israel. how does the ron you watch it one more than anyone else? i know how does the ron look at american leadership at this moment? does it look at it, added is as if it's floundering, does it look at it as if it's being directed? is this, is this hugging of israel during this crisis after october 7 enhancing americans brand in the region and making us look more submit for middle or is around looking at us as tied down into something we can't manage to. yvonne certainly looks at the united states at this moment as a great power that is bogged down in so many crises around the world. that is

basically getting the wrong closer to the strategic objective, that the stomach of public has always had which has to eventually evict the us from that part of the world. they see the reluctance of the us to use its own military muscle. they see the inability of the united states to deal with much lesser power like israel and allied, that is completely dependent on the united states to influence decisions. whether it's because to address the humanitarian situation that will mama. oh, that was something that was right to me talking about, or whether it's the uh, you know, trying to rain in israel from doing things that would then endanger us troops in the region. the attack on iran and console that absolutely could have been danger or further escalation could endanger us forces in the region. but you see also on the other hand, the reality that at the end of the day, iran is a much less or ministry. power is under the most stifling sanctions that the us has

ever imposed. busy it's that we're threatening more sanctions now. absolutely bad and do those sanctions bother iran and iran leadership? do they convey uh, basically a sense that, that it runs options are truly being curtailed by the united states in this, or is this something that they can slough off? look uh, without any doubt, the sanctions have a devastating impact on the run in economy. and there's no doubt about it, but the regime has survived. it's not thriving, but uh, you know, with additional sanctions basically we think get the dial of sanctions, but it is currently 8 out of 10, maybe from 9 out of 10. but that one extra date degree is not going to be a game changer. and if you look across the board as a result of the sanction iran has more aggressive in the region. more repressive at home, as nuclear program is closer than ever to the verge of a weaponized nation. which by the way, what has happened over the course of the past few months, i think is pushing down further and further in that direction. because the regional

and the parents clearly has not the 3rd israel, their conventional military capabilities cannot defend their own territory in front of much powerful adversaries like the us or the united states. but if you look at the impact of sanctions, they have not achieved their objectives. and that extra degree is not going to be a game changer assignment. we've just saw this kabuki act in the united nations security council where the us vetoed an effort to give call for full palestinian statehood. but at the same time, every senior us national security and diplomatic official and the president united states say, the only way out of this is the 2 state solution. are you convinced that all that president biden really believes in a 2 state solution just shows you the kind of levels of, of, of us policy in the middle east that seem to be at one level. and this is what we should be talking about. it seems to be far less about that kind of objective reading of the us in the middle east. and what is interests are in the middle east

and much more about a whole range of, of, of domestic pressures and considerations that are put on us administration's time. and time again, as well as audiology, as well as all sorts of other reasons why that us does what it does in the middle east because of us could have been theory long time ago. put pressure to resolve this, this the palestine question. but the west has chosen not to and then at the same time it claims to one day to state solution precisely because they understand that what's happening on the ground right now is an effect, a one state solution, a one state. whereas some people have rights and the most people have either limited rights or no rights. the alley i'm gonna give you the last word. the united states during the trump administration did violate the agreement of the jcp away by withdrawing from that and moving forward. and i'm interested as, as someone who worked so vigorously on trying to get a 3rd option as opposed to

a p using iran or a war with iran trying to create a 3rd 3rd way here. do you think that we're now back on a collision course with a run as president obama feared we might be if we didn't get something like the g. c. p. o. in place? are we back in a railroad collision course? from your perspective. we are opposite. they were really getting close to an inflection point that i think if in the next administration, regardless of who the next president is. if we can find a diplomatic solution to this crisis. i think the 2 options that president obama warned about a 10 years ago of whether it's a deal or a conflict with once again come to the 4 and we would be faced. but that unpalatable choice choice on both sides with one difference. steve, the now as a result of president from unwise decision to re neck, the 2015 agreement, iran has significantly more leverage then it had in 2015. and it will be so much

more difficult to put the program back in a box. and under the most rigorous monitoring that has a, has ever been established. and, and in other words, present from took roger program out of that box and put it in the microwave. and basically there is no going back. so we will, we can never get a deal that was as good as the 2015 deal and digesting that i think for washington's political environment is going to be extremely difficult to agreeing to the wrong having a much larger capacity and also offering sanctions relief to an iranian regime that is on the wrong side of the water in ukraine or what's happening in, in uh, in the middle east is going to be politically even cost. therefore, the next step is, well, look, i want to thank you both. you sounded like the c u. c. berkeley, professor of history and ally as iran project director at the international crisis group. thank you both so much for being with us today. so what's the bottom line?

tit for tat escalation may not happen right away. like in the movies, but everything in the middle east is just getting much more complicated and dangerous for us president joe biden. it seems to me he's just gotten used to being ignored after pleading with his real, to not respond to in ron's attacks. it did, but as long as he so deeply entwined with his real, it will be on its side no matter what joe biden matters less. meanwhile israel's anxieties will get worse, killing almost $15000.00 palestinian children and gaza plus $10000.00 women and $10000.00 men has not made it feel more safe and secure. and being bombarded by has the law on a daily basis definitely doesn't help. and the more trigger, happy israel gets, the more queasy iran gets driving forward is nuclear program, which in turn triggers in arms race in the region. we saudi arabia in the market for nuclear capabilities these days. in the meantime, gaza boyles in despair and injustice in what looks like

a conflict without ad. so it's hard to see much getting better for a long, a very long time. and that's the bottom line. the a pod came in to be used as the oil see suffered casualties. we have not suffered to say, tyler, to use. thank goodness we did have injuries from a missile strike on a guest house. thought provoking on to who they to say, no double stand to all of us. any anyone in particular? i said, all facing realities, government seems here to whittle down democracy. if this is troubling for you, it's very, very painful via the story on talk to how does era examining the headlines, unflinching journalism, sharing personal stories with a global audience explorer and abundance of world class programming. on alex's

era, devastation, finalizations usually in the top 5 countries as the most valuable country in the world displacement. if you look at tack of safety, it's unbelievable desperation, then leaving on a fringe of life and did the stock reality of climate change in a rapidly sinking country. we have the problem to be the rest of the work we have tomorrow, and they will have to learn from us, which is here is new series dying of life before land the, the, [000:00:00;00]

the condition of a thing. so she needs this, you know, this is the sort of female surgery and let me know we can and of course the spirits in the face of it, this is the time to get a can you see. and the so me,

the a mass claims discovered and con eunice and southern gaza at least $210.00 quantities of inhabit weeks on that is really on the with the, the bottom. and this is alan to 0 lice and joe halls. so coming up dr. save a baby from a dead mother's wound. as 16 children accountants riley s choice on rafa. echo dual,