of the brazilian amazon sienna, monique peoples, the far as the planets ecosystem with a counter offensive is underway. as the tribal chiefs had to your gold clubs, the corridors of power not to seek help, but to demand the world. the warnings of its indigenous people. holding up the sky, a witness documentary on the jersey to the us health of representative degrees of $61000000000.00 a package. the crank up the mumps of political wrangling holding a 3rd will go on with ins, tobacco russian forces will this help in the war? or will it just per long, the fighting influx shifts? this is inside the store, the

hello and welcome to the program and tell them a cry of the months of political holes trading and bring some and ship. the us house of representatives finally reached an agreement on a $61000000000.00 aid package for you. crime that keith had rooms defeat loomed of us. politicians filed to agree on more money or under attack from the lodge. a better equipped russian forces ukrainian troops are entirely reliance on foreign assistance at the spot receiving major aid and military packages to died. some believe the boy is that a style might support as of the assistance is it will bring you crying closer to victory. the kremlin, along with some of the independent observers, says it will simply prolong the will, meaning more people will die. that will be assessing without pen, look, guess what this package might mean for you kind of russian. and what along google could mean for both countries along with europe and the united states, and our path to pace might be found. this is this report from imaging camp

another $61000000000.00 b crane, and it's war against russia. the latest us a package is pushed by the republican hi speaker with logic, democratic support. it's a, it's a dangerous time of the 3 of our primary adversaries. russia and iran in china are working together and they're being aggressors around the globe and their global threat to our prosperity and our security. their advance threatens their free world and it demands american leadership. we turn our backs right now, the consequences to be devastating. the legislation still needs approval from the senate, which is expected to get before being signed off by president j. pardon? president slodum is a lensky. it's been cooling for more aid for months, saying it's critical for ukraine survival. of course, of course, i think everyone who supported a package, this is a live saving decision. we will certainly use american support to strengthen both all nations and bring a just into this will close to a girl. that's guten,

must lose. the tied to military and civilian death toll since russia's invasion in february 2022 is on 9. on the 2nd, none of us you have to hold the u. n. human rights monitoring mission estimated more than 10 size and ukranian civilians had been killed and almost 20000 injured. while the ministry said 31 size and personnel had been killed. an investigation by the bbc and jose estimates 50000 russian troops have been killed. the criminal says only the defense ministry can provide such statistics and hasn't done so due to official secrets. those ukraine has made little progress breaking through russia's front line or its grip on parts of eastern and southern ukraine. well, russian forces continue to carry out attacks across the country. ukraine has also been launching drones into russian territory. of the kremlin says the approval of

security aid to ukraine would lead to more damage and death in the conflict. it accuses the us fighting a proxy war against russia, through its ministry, support with ukraine supplying demand power the us and they to say there are no plans to send troops to increase. the russia says british military personnel already the with no, i just saw a bucking dying or gaining significant grand and no negotiations on the table. the will seem set to drag on image and kinda, i'll just narrow the inside story where ukraine has become the biggest recipient of us for an age the 1st time for you are p and country since the 2nd world war, according to the council of foreign relations even before sensitized by the us had approve more than $74000000000.00 and assistance. you try and during the war that includes humanitarian, financial and military support of you has provided more than $106000000000.00 and

financial military to military and, and refugee assistance since the war began. the cadets bring in now panel now in new york, chris, which is a full, the middle east bureau chief of the new times independents a prize winning journalist in washington dc. and the total even is the director of the razor program at the quincy institute for responsible state cross us thing tank . and then boss in the you kind of petrik barry is a defense and security analyst as well as a former british officer who's also with a long side. nice. so thank you very much for being with us here on inside story. patrick. if i can begin with you, and before we get to the long attend implications of this a package, you kind is wasted months and months for this to be signed off. how desperately needed, is it and what impact is it actually going to have on the war? a tom is critical. i think the, the new music in the face reflect

a doctor. this bill is going to get through because of the nature of the, the threat that you brian is facing. essentially it's quite a defensive of the way it looks is going to be quite a defensive package. and the number one priority at the moment is air defense. a new brain has obviously had some patriot and ask for assistance from the u. s. and you are, but it needs more. i have somewhere in the region of $3.00 to $5.00 and as ask for another 7 more. the good news is you can get that quite quickly. um, i'd say most of the nations that can provide the systems can news and fairly quickly. the rest of all have stopped piles of certain cases in europe already and i'd say not as the number one priority. the 2nd thing that is large kind of artillery shows, i need them quickly to might take a little bit longer. and there's numerous different efforts going in europe items obviously to us to get those to them. i don't think at the moment that will be quite enough and at least it gets the ball rolling. chris, a lot of the landscape has a sit in response to this that ukraine will now have

a chance to victory a $61000000000.00 enough die for you, cried to actually finish this war, or is it simply going to per long this current style might that we've seen of, of recent months, you know, it will prolong it. i think since ukraine's failed counter offensive in 2023 day by their own admission where they call it active defense. the russians have made territorial games, but there was always an understanding from the inception of this war that ukraine could not win a war of attrition. it's now i think the average age of its troops is something like 43. i had 7 parents spring difficulties recruiting. i think the fear and the reason that this was pushed through is the possibility of ukrainian collapse. but the intent of washington was never to essentially allow the ukrainian

forces to defeat the russians. but it was to create a proxy war whereby the russian military would be degraded. vladimir putin would be isolated. uh, and then the 3rd aspect of that was to degrade and triple the russian economy that did not happen apparently. but that's what proxy wars are about. i covered the pros in northern arac cuz they never wanted to us number one or the current state. they just wanted to harass iraqi regime. and so they are prolonging the proxy war that will end in negotiations. oh, sadly, negotiations that have been done before this war began, you will get on to the negotiations and when they may begin and how they would play out in just a moment. but the anatole, we also heard from a zalinski saying that this us, i package seems a strong signal that you crime will not be a secondary dentist on the united states will stay with you crying. and then it

also sends a powerful message to person in the kremlin. do you agree with those statements in? do you agree with chris as well that this package is just going to prolong this proxy? will that the us is filing with russia? i suppose this package will help ukraine to stand on the defensive. there's no question of that. i'm just missed a very upset. this is basically a defensive package of box. it will not help to crate and it will help. but when insured is that ukraine can break through the russian lines and when it's time, which of course, it failed completely to do last 2. and those lines are being strengthened all the time. now, is, the lensky has continues to define peaks in terms of total ukrainian victory. the ukraine in each package, such as the russian must withdrawal from the entire traits occupied, including crimea, and bull trends,

trials and reparations. that requires complete ukrainian victory, which we're not going to get on the 2nd live goals. uh us support for you. credit is not insured by this package for this year. but we have elections in in november . i'm just goes um it's trump is elected. what happens next year is completely, i'm sure. so in the longer term, and this was the huge imbalance of population of resources between russia and ukraine. um, yes, i mean in, in the it will be a war of attrition in the old system on russian side. patrick, just picking up from that point and what you said earlier about this being a defensive package, i mean button has more numerous times that without mess of u. s. military, i didn't support the ukrainian resistance, would pretty much completely collapse. what happens if the money doesn't keep

flowing, especially after the election? the us selection of the end of this year? well essentially tom uh the, the, when the new grand sales would slowly die. um then uh it would eventually be come under such a pressure from the russians that they would have to start conceding territory. and then it would be done to the manner of which task and how much the russians talk. and also whether the finance have to switch to some sort of insurgency, to go back to charles point, you know, when i don't think the west, i actually had a problem for this being a proxy war. i think if you look at the nature of the way that the ukrainians defended at the start of the war, they exceeded expectations much higher than must be before then. originally, all of them, the weapon systems that went into suggested they were going to be the west. we're going to be funding an insurgency, especially in the west of the country, rather than a full this to get scale to go to tote, to conventional flight, which it turns into. so you brain exceeded expectations in the policy. decisions have to evolve with that. we are aware we are and i don't think the writings would

have also accepted in the end and it goes a to settlement before the affordable or the some obviously major differences are by whether internally, whether they want to accept anything that is. so, um, but we are where we are. i think the point is, uh, you know, even just the defense or former or persian the ascendancy. it's even hard for the russians, even though they're getting into a groove and making some advances. it's harder for them to mouse in secret and then break through like we've seen any in in previous flores on because of the advantages with ukraine, generally, as long as i can keep the sensors, unintelligence picture going them. their big question is, do we take a year and go on the defensive and then with some massive amounts of us and western support train. you know, if i do a big or offensive in 2024, i actually think that's probably becoming the less likely that as time passes in result and one in part as a result of this delay to the package. if it had to come back in october, when it was needed, then you would have been into a phase and in spring of planning and prepping for the holding off the russians for

a year and going again for an operational victory, strategic they give another try another operational victory next summer. i don't, i think we've lost so much time now. i'm not sure that's going to happen. chris, it seems like we're already talking about nick some a little on in the one in the coming months. what do you make of, of with this is, is going to go, do you think is, is just going to continue, i guess, rolling along, month after month with very little movements in terms of territory gains or losses on either side as well. i just wanna address the issue of momentum because that is true, that the inception of the conflict and this was a lot of this was due to failure within the russian military, on their intelligence, their tactics. they didn't have the logistics, they didn't have the trip numbers. uh and the trainings, especially in that initial rush driven susie as i'm and the flight of western

weapons, were able to make military gains. but all of that has been neutralized the tactics, especially the strong defensive tactics have changed the russian forces of more than double in size. uh and then of course the ukrainians. uh, as i mentioned before, are having great difficulty mobilizing uh the in and increasingly older troops that are not particularly well trained or motivated. the russians have got more effective tactics in terms of defending attacks. uh and uh, and they've increased their capacity to jam the electronic systems, which these natal weapons use. so the war is changed dramatically from that initial inception. i'd sure i would use the word still me because it is a war of attrition. stalemate is essentially something that doesn't change a war of attrition on the ground. it may not change in terms of the actual

territorial occupation, but that steady attrition on the ukraine just can't afford it. and at that point, at a certain point, as you know, you go back to world war one or something. you see those forces that are being shipped away, essentially collapse. and i think that's a real possibility and ukraine eventually. and it's all, i can see you, nothing along there. what do you make of that? i guess that's how you see it. so yes, i think chris is exactly right and it goes absolutely critical here is, is the issue. ready of troops of numbers of troops, because even if we go on giving you kind, massive amounts of weapons, we kind of generate the troops to use those weapons. and ukraine is more and more numbers and its troops on the ground are exhausted. so yes, i mean, the longer the will goes off, the greater the risk that, as chris said, as in, in the 1st will, you have

a war of attrition but which eventually does end with the collapse of, of one side. and that side, i think we must assume would be ukraine, not fresh. i believe it to roughly 50000 ukranian soldiers had been killed. so fire and 2 years of war. and it's all i know that you have been to your crime since the will began. can you just give us a little bit of a view of what the people of the, the population make if this more of attrition is we're calling it here today. i mean, we often hear from the government's point of view, obviously, but we really, very, really here from the people inside you crying as i at a turning point a with i want to see eddings to the war at this point. well, i mean, as one would expect, saving the great divisions of opinion on to the surface in, in the ukrainian population. a, by the way, mean the estimates of the,

the statement by the lensky of study one sizes and you pregnant, that is taken by most military experts to be a huge. i'm just a, probably the 50000, bbc think it's russian. that is also a great time to on the statement of bob's one of the scene of the whole, reggie when i was there last year, i everybody, everybody i talked to one to the pregnant defensive to succeed, bought a large minority said that if it didn't, then rather than you may fighting on and on and losing more and more dead with no realistic type of victory that you train would have to negotiate and concede for at least a considerable amount of the tighter trade. the judge has already lost. now, majorities and said no, you pain must, must never surrender territory. but it was also striking. ready the people who said that in the end we will have to compromise. that was the last minority as i say,

but not one of them is willing to say on the record of it. this one has to be wary of including, of opinion pose which say that you know, you be brand new people are united in opposing, any kind of compromise piece. and a bit more recent opinion. polls have suggested that that has been a strong shift towards belief that that, that must be a compromise piece. not yes, the majority, but even larger minority. now, of course, one must say that that does not mean that these people support ukraine, simply so rendering to russia and ukraine becoming, you know, of course, session clients state was overwhelming opposition to that. the question is basically whether you negotiate a piece which involves russia holding voltage, it now has and which also of course, involves the gradient. treaty of neutrality was also being that it just goes by

many ukrainians, is the fact that while the west has given massive aid to ukraine, of course, the west has not gone to war, to defend ukraine, which, as the lensky himself said, in the 1st month, does raise the question of what nature membership, what is for, or whether the inside nature ukraine will be a member of nature. and that's why in fact ukraine should not sign a treaty of neutrality. if accompanied by you some forms of guarantee for its future security. but before we move on to potential negotiations and all of this picture, when it comes to you just in regards to the ukranian soldiers, obviously as we had a minimum, the city thousands of have died already up to potentially 50000. the longer this goes on, is this the greatest risk to you, cried the, the, the, the lack of troops that they have coming in behind those on the front line that

continue to be killed. it depends, doesn't that, you know, depends on the rate of loss relative to the russians and their ability to refresh it. but look, it's not like you're talking long term in the way the germany was eventually strong goals in, in the 1st for a walrus christmas. all kind of a, there is on some choosing that analogy a smaller nation with a smaller population and economy can go against, you know, a former global superpower with, you know, 200000000 people. and it just doesn't happen. a lot of people have left you brain to so that's a longer term picture and i agree, but, but you know, i'm is worrying indicators, you know, rushes out in your bait or release, replacing out of goods forces. 30000 people amongst ukraine installed over there, mobilization um, over the winter basically, you know, and he's just getting ran through and thought should have happened much faster. you know, a porch. i do think that the, you know, we're gonna talk about negotiations. that's ultimately i think it's all the software that has been to the branding is to decide when enough is enough is enough, is enough enough for them to the side. and all we've done really is giving them the

stuff. and some of it's too late to, to, to keep fighting. so, i mean, we've also gone out and see and it's all you know, statements that we've gone over and told them to keep fighting a time to give them support and which stand by stand by them. and i suppose the, some of the ukrainians are coming out and they're saying, well, we thought there be more, but on the nato point, you know, you probably didn't, to nato, it wasn't able to core, i like is right. and i and you know, so i'm, i think that's probably not being made clear enough to them in the, in the, in the past potentially. yeah. and so i'm going to come to you shortly if now is the time to negotiate. but course i want to bring you back in here because do you think that this really is up to $61000000000.00 of 8 as soon to be heading towards ukraine? is this the time to negotiate and, and if not, when as well. i think the longer you frame delays negotiations the week or it's position becomes

a and there is going to have to be an exchange of land for peace. i think that's inevitable in eastern ukraine, which russia, regardless of russian historically and culturally with some justification. um, so i don't think time is on the side of ukrainians. and to tell i want to bring you back in here obviously. yeah. so we saw you shaking your head before in regards to this. do you think that it has to be an exchange of lands to pace and do you think that the ukrainians will accept that as well? i think so, 1st of all we, we do, we obviously have a road in this if, if we are giving so much help to ukraine and endangering our end security in the process of costs. we have a say in the end of the settlements and negotiations. i mean, i, i think the american people,

your vin publics have every right to them on that. but i think it's very important to say 2 things. one is there all things that the west are really and the in fact america can i'm sure negotiation. one of those things is nation membership is often membership is not up to you crime. it's up to us subsidy, existing members of nature. we can negotiate as we did with the soviets over australia. in the 1950s, we can negotiate screeches of neutrality, but i need some membership and false mutual false invitations that still have to be crated. now, when it comes to saying that only the premiums can negotiate these, i think the, the program is also that if you look at the political situation in p s, if you look at the pressure on presidents and landscape, they come to actually do that. it's not politically possible for them to initiate the go see ations we, we will have to do that. the final point is on territorial concessions. look

the territories in the east at the moment or last, if you can kind of recon cuz i'm on the battlefield. it wouldn't get them back to the negotiating table, but that does not mean that the ukrainians should all code all that we should all could tell them formally to give up those territories to negotiate them away because they can't do that. so in any case, that will be completely comp, tradesman, international law. but russians have suggested that actually, and by the way, this was part of the, the, the piece plan it in march of 22. that's rather than agreeing on the status of those territories. negotiations on them should be deferred for future discussion, which all through is what we have done of the international community in the case of kashmir, in the case of cyprus. so you don't try to solve the territorial issue. you freeze

on for future negotiations, which in the case of cyprus and caching is probably the ones that have generations . petrik, is that viable? is that a viable option here? do you think it, while it comes in to the intent of vladimir putin and whether you control some on whether a frozen complex is indeed going to be for others and or if they're going to keep taking pot shots that across as a cause i would if i was him to stop them getting anywhere near neighbors. i wouldn't do. and so, you know, i'm, i'm not, as i said, intent on trust of which both i think it's intended very, very difficult under that to understand and trust. very, very low. but i totally agree that it's on this and you know what i was getting, that was the you brand new, will have to decide whether not enough device. and of course we have some skin in the game. we've got a lot of skin in the game and that gives us, and i'm sure it's going on, you know,

good cancel being being given to give it to the leadership, but ultimately is it's for them to the side. and i do think there's a lens, you know, the maximum us go and bolivar tyronica, useful, etc. especially in the early days. you know, really, that's be realistic, military, even with a mass of longer term support and from nato allies, including the us. you know, you're looking at a larger version of wall failed last summer. you know, a larger, better cracked version of that. that's a big domestic. and that would just take back another chunk of land. you know, so maybe the southern coast right in front start from mary up all around to um, to the outskirts and, and part of the site if there was a reason for example. and of course, that would put probably me under, you know, much more direct rest. uh, but it were still totally operational out on the strategic victory. you know, when you need to string together a number of operations to get it into a, it's a strategic victory. so, um yeah, i think militarily, it's but because of this,

the light is back on the more difficult thing to any to take back any brand. yeah, chris, uh, i just wanna uh, finish up with you and take it, take a bit of a step back. does anyone actually want, whether it's the you with you crying russia unites, or does anyone actually want this to come to a quick conclusion or, or are all of those potties prepared to just grind this out? as long as it takes? i don't think they're prepared to grind it out well that, that is, by the way, their strategy as long as it takes whatever that means i don't care is any hard of the sense or understanding of where we are going with this. i'm talking about the united states. they have an ass that was hard question. what is as long as it takes me one way, no strategic. um so but, but the support is waive, right? and i mean, we see it in the united states. uh and uh, with a trump presidency. uh, it's very possible that there could be

a severe reduction in terms of support for ukraine. so uh no, i think that there is a diminishing appetite for a forever war in ukraine, especially since there is not been clear cut and definitive goals set in particular by washington. we'll have to leave it there, but we really do appreciate your time and i guess for some 4 months we'll have to say exactly what difference the 61000000000 dollars is actually going to make on the battlefield. chris and tell them patrick, we really do appreciate your time. thank you. i'm thank you to for once and you can see the program again, any time by visiting a web site that's al jazeera dot com. and so for the discussion goes, well, facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i handle is at a inside story from a time to cry and a whole team here, bye for now, the

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website, w w, w dot h t a dot q a forward slash e m. the . ready ready hello, i'm marianne and mazda in dell. i just a quick look at the nice stories of the following. a mass grave with the bodies of palestinians has been discovered in hon, eunice, and southern gaza. the remains of over 200 people have been found buried on the grounds of the nozzler magical complex. the discovery comes off to is riley forces withdrew from the area. some of the teams who recovered the dead say that some of them were shots from behind. on 8 mountain road reports from the sites in hong eunice early in the war, thousands of power.