anatoly gennadievich, tell me what is happening with the sanctions pressure on russia, to what extent this can affect russian, well , if you like, quite ambitious plans, during a war, during an increase in the military budget, a forced increase in the military budget, in general, maintain not just high rates of development of the country, but fulfill all social obligations in general everywhere where...

the quarter of the current year is already more than 5%, and in the processing industries 7-8%. i represent chuvashia, there is an increase of almost 30%, and not only those industries, not only those enterprises that work for the defense industry, instrument making, mechanical engineering, agricultural engineering, all this is developing at a very fast pace, the government has an excellent program, in my opinion mishustin outlined it in the state duma, it... will allow our country enough in a short time to build an economy that will compete with the whole world , and in this sense, sanctions help us a lot, because we are forced to rely on internal forces, internal capabilities, on the history that the country had, including economic, engineering, industrial in general, thank god, thank god that the country for this reason... began to develop

and, uh, i’m sure that this will also help overcome the external enemy, which i was counting on the fact that we would fall apart as soon as sanctions were imposed against our country. what do you think about the dangers of inflation? inflation is under control, there was a surge, because of this, the central bank very generously raised the key rate to 16%, as you know, for this it criticize. but from my point of view, he is doing absolutely the right thing in order to, among other things , support the well-being of our people by reducing inflation, so that their incomes do not depreciate, while the government has proposed a number of programs, including subsidizing those areas that ensure structural restructuring of the economy , in my opinion, such a balanced policy of the central bank is very competent , so well... i see a lot of talk about

the ruble exchange rate, but i see that, in general, over the past months it has not changed, what prospects do you see? it will be stable at approximately the same values ​​as they are today, the ruble exchange rate will be stable, and this is also thanks to such a competent policy. the central bank, which is under pressure, there is pressure on it, including the parliamentary corps, does not follow the lead, keeps the key rate at a high level, naturally, industrialists also criticize it for this, but as i already said, those sectors of industry that needs to be developed, including for structural restructuring, for modernization of our economy, they receive subsidies from the government ; the budget contains quite... decent amounts

in order to ensure the technological restructuring of our economy through subsidies, including interest rates on loans for such investment processes. i will conclude by mentioning an interesting article in the respected journal foreign affairs. this article was written by one of the people who left russia and is very critical of russian politics.

when a person, if you like, is accomplished with from my point of view, it was an ambiguous act, to put it mildly, by leaving russia, but he showed professional integrity. recognizing the obvious facts: there are comrades, what can we be proud of? of course, there is something to be proud of, but they often say that i represent the financial and banking community there, naturally, i closely interact with it, and so the overwhelming majority of the financial banking community are patriots of their country who are ready, including with financial resources, and do this is to support structural restructuring, which means make russia stronger, it was a big game, we’ll meet again: tomorrow on the air,

this is an easy money podcast, i’m its host mikhail khanov, today we’re looking at bonds, what are they, how to choose them? how they work, when to buy, when to sell, and most importantly, what kind of profitability can be obtained using this financial instrument. and today our guest is an investor, an asset manager with more than twenty years of experience, the academic director of a professional retraining program in stock and financial markets higher school of economics, alexey bacherov. hello, alexey. hello, mikhail. what are bonds and why do all those who have been working on... on the stock markets call it smart money, that is , investing in bonds, unlike deposits and especially buying or selling shares, has always been called smart or hard money, mikhail, we have a difficult task today, let's start with what is a bond? a bond is

a security, correctly speaking in the necessary terms, yes, it is an issue-grade security paper, and to put it simply, it’s a promissory note, well, if we really simplify it, yes, if we really simplify it, it really is. this is also a bond, and you yourself are the issuer, that is, the one issuing this receipt, and accordingly, all responsibility for all risks for the fact that you fulfill or fail to fulfill your obligations under this receipt are borne by you, respectively, the issuers or...

to lend to the state , oh, the state likes to borrow in different ways, and construction projects are really very large, it starts from a year, by the way, it’s only recently that ours, well, we actually have two three-month bonds, and recently such bonds up to a year and a year began to appear, yeah, yeah, but in principle, bonds can be for 10, 20, or

30 years, no one except the state usually borrows like this for such periods, let’s immediately know what the yield is now on thirty-year bonds, let’s say we lent the state for 30 years, how does all this look technically, let’s look at it step by step, we and you have recorded that we we figured out that a bond is actually a promissory note, in this case this term is applicable either to the state or to companies, we said that all responsibility for these debt obligations is borne by either the company or the state, in the case of the second it is even more reliable, well, in my opinion it is even more reliable than a bank deposit, because in principle.

these are certain requirements for the investor, yes, that he can buy or not, even the most ordinary person, yes anyone, can easily open an account to buy bonds, but only through a broker, like everything, by law, any. but that is, it still seems to me that this has not become very popular, and that’s why

our people like bank deposits more, for them they are more understandable, the second thing, maybe it’s just that people’s bonds have fulfilled their role, and we see by there is now an influx of investors to the stock exchange where trading takes place, including federal loan bonds, a very large influx of clients, yes, that is, in principle, people are already ready to buy classic bonds without this, now there is a separate issue topic, bonds are being traded, i think... that many of our listeners and viewers worked for them, yeah, that is, they can still be traded, but now we will talk separately about this topic, so, through a broker, i choose an acceptable one for myself, that profitability, reliability, what, because in any case it is the state, the question is how long do i trust it, yes or how? this is such a very difficult question, that is, indeed, if we are simply talking about bonds of a purely federal loan, then from the point of view of reliability they are all the same, that they will be short, that they will be long. and so on, but in this case a person’s choice really lies in two planes, that is, firstly, for how long

am i ready to place my funds, maybe i have some kind of goal and i want to save up money for this time, or this is an opportunity to earn extra money if you know when to buy long bonds, because usually long bonds can change quite a lot in price, and professional market participants can make money on price changes, that is, not just, well, come on now it’s already become unclear, let’s try it together now alexey... what bonds, that is, once a year the state pays me how much 13% per annum, now long bonds give a long-term yield of 13%, well, 13 1314 usually it’s even done not once a year, but twice a year, bonds pay in the form of interest, interest is called bond coupons. i’ll explain to our audience where this came from, that is, in the nineties, when these were securities or vouchers, there

really was such a coupon, you know, like a ticket in a cinema, with sometimes even a perforated edge, which came off and meant that the coupon had been redeemed, since then this annual or semi-annual payment is called a coupon, naturally, what alexey said, when the payment is made twice, this does not mean , that you are paid 13% twice a year, you... simply pays half of this amount, that is , respectively, 6.5% in the first half of the year, 6.5% in the second half of the year. now we’ve figured out the rate, by the way, the coupon rate and yield, let’s record that when it’s suitable the end date of the borrowing, then you get your full amount back, i understand correctly, that is, let’s say, we bought a three-year bond from us today, now we’ll figure out what we bought, and let’s allow it. simplicity, let's say once a year, once a year we get 13% after the first year, 13%

after the second year, in the third year we get 13%, the entire amount that we invested in poppy seeds, let's say we bought it for million, that is, we loaned the state a million for 3 years, it paid us 130,000, two, three times and at the end of the third year i returned a million, now. we are moving on to a very interesting part, as i say, of the marlezon ballet, called bond trading, here i will make such a small explanation, will you do something about liquidity, and why is all this done, why didn’t i just buy it with bonds, but how you said they are still being traded, please explain what bonds are being traded, why this is done and how to work with it, like any security, it is often traded on the secondary market market, the secondary market allows investors to enter investments and exit them, well , for... reasons for which we can’t even discuss much now, why there is, well , first of all, alexey, because of liquidity, because anything can

happen , let’s say, i invested, an investor, private, there is a state fund, or just some kind of fund, something happened to me, i did not plan to touch, touch these bonds for 3 years, but something happened , life happened, and i need these funds, that’s what these are for bonds, as you said, they are traded on stock exchanges, or wherever they are. released, i can sell them, now the nuance is at what price, how the fluctuations go and so on, yes, this is the most interesting thing, because in that example, mikhail, which you spoke about, 13% meant that we..

market participants look at what inflation will be, calculate it in different ways, model it, and this will determine how much, what kind of yield these bonds can give, well, i don’t physically buy or physically buy any instruments. like futures, how does it work, no, why do you physically buy it on my balance sheet, a bond comes in, and if i want to short some bonds, the same thing, yes , for this we have, firstly, we have futures on the index rgb is an index of government bonds, but it can be used for a short position on bonds. a short position is when you play short, short, yes, or we have another option, in principle, the bonds themselves can be shorted these bonds in the federal mutual, well, physically, what do i need to be done, that is, should i take them to a mutual broker and sell them or what? yes, well , this is actually an automatic mode, the main thing is that the broker can provide this service himself, legally this is possible, there are no prohibitions, but simply not all brokers make it possible. it will be

hot, what, where, when, summer series of games, on sunday on the first, this is the easy money podcast, i am its host mikhail khanov, today we are going to figure out what a bond is, how the price of bonds can change, that is , let’s say a bond it's worth nominally.

everyone understands, it is called duration in bonds, a special concept, with the help of this indicator you can estimate how much the price of bonds will change if interest rates on the market change? well, by the time of maturity, i correctly understand that, in principle, if i close my eyes, squeeze, i don’t know, all the parts of my body and just sit out until the end of the term, as long as i have this bond issued, then all these fluctuations don’t bother me much in the market, in any case , the state will repay me... the nominal value that is written in the bond, this plus my interest coupon income, that is, everything that we are talking about, it is applicable for those for whom liquidity is really important, who at any time wants and maybe should be sure that he can sell it or realize it and get money , then really this instrument, well , after all, fluctuations happen so that let’s say

i urgently need money, and something happened, and how much is the minimum there, about how much for... 9000 i can sell it, that is, having lost 10%, for example, of course, well, these are the minimum drops that were in the nearest, in recent history, i’m not taking into account recent history, of course, this is 2022, when government bonds sank quite strongly and the fall was about 20%, about, that is, nominal debt obligations worth a million cost 800,000, and those who took the risk bought they earned them, and of course they will be repaid, because the state is fully paying off. there was no such thing, there was no default, yes, the state fully pays off its obligations, that is, they received coupon income, this risk premium 20%. moreover, mikhail, we started the conversation with the fact that this is smart money, yes, when there are such falls in the market as in 2022, 2014, this is precisely the case when large players begin to actively buy such securities,

in order to get not only a coupon, including getting the delta between the purchase price and the par value, why not... it’s close to inflation, and thirdly, the cost of share capital also depends on these same parameters, what’s most interesting is that it’s not enough as people understand, but this is really true, and knowing... what is the yield on government bonds, knowing what risks you bear in stocks, you can calculate what the yield should be in stocks, and it is precisely because of this that stocks are more volatile, well, that is, they fluctuate

more strongly than bonds, that is, you can earn more on stocks, but you can lose, but here it’s probably appropriate to say that the so-called fixed income, or fixed income in english, is applicable specifically to bonds or to gangs or to treasuries, as they are called stuffed, and there is very so simple. you don’t speculate, that is , if you don’t play games, buy cheaper, sell more expensive, if you really bought them, they are in your portfolio, then this is the same fixed income, fixtincom, because you receive an a-coupon, and in front of you the state is responsible for paying the full face value of this debt security at the end of its validity period, because in shares no one has such responsibility to you, and shares are not debts, after all, we started with the fact that a bond. with the level of risk that you are ready to determine for this issuer, but in principle

, you and i know that government debts are that very basic level, yes, well , it’s clear, as i say, for a hundred percent return only to it, but there to the top, but in principle it is always necessary to determine some kind of fixed return, fixed risk, so it is taken as zero for a certain category. including the central bank, which is why comparing the default of '98 with all the events that followed it, well after all, we didn’t have any events after that

, neither in hamburg nor in the hamburg account, nothing even closely related to the word default, i’ll just say it again, i’ll just say it so that people can understand why, there are quite a lot of interesting articles in the literature about the crisis of '98 and the default of '98, if anyone remembers, then the dollar was worth it then.

probably the movement of money in shares in any other instruments, it turns out that if we explained in such detail in sufficient detail that depends on the price, it turns out that really the most interesting time for buying is when bonds have dropped in price, that is, when someone is afraid of something, but like, well, for example, i always had a potential emerging greece's default, i will explain for our audience, naturally. debt securities issued under the guarantee of this country, then greece went to the european union to pay money, then it was in question whether they would give them money, but not, and you

probably also remember that the cost of bonds, then there is the cost of government debt bonds of greece fell to 20% of the face value, that is, a paper worth a million dollars could be bought for 2000, according to it the state owed you a million, but no one knew whether this million would be given to the state. or not, what is the situation now on the debt market of russian securities, russian debt, because what i hear and read is that this market has sank and bonds are, well, practically at the minimum of their prices, now is the time to buy or you can wait a little longer, bonds are now in in a very good position and they are really worth buying, i am already those who are in the cache now , of course, yes in those who are in the cache, and not necessarily by the way in the cache, but perhaps it’s worth a look if. there are positions in stocks, even sell, reduce this position, buy bonds, because fixing a yield of 13% per annum for the long term is a very good result, but

if we talk about my personal assessments, i think... real profit, that is profits minus inflation, yes, this is not a very common story when we can do something to get something like this from the state, so i think it’s very interesting to buy bonds now, i also think there in my portfolios, reduce these positions in stocks , buy bonds, now is a great time to buy, in fact, that’s the second question, yes, how necessary.. should you buy now or wait a little, bonds are not a stock market, it doesn’t change very quickly, you can start buying now and even if the price drops a little more, continue them, yes, that is , the standard principle, you don’t need all the money at once, and gradually gain, yes, gradually build up a portfolio, and bonds do not react very quickly, but to such changes, yes, of course, events ala 22 2014 are quick reactions, yes, but it is after such quick reactions that a good buying moment begins, all professional investors

are actively using this now. it’s a very good time to start buying bonds for your investment portfolio, that is , the government debt of the russian federation, you can do it slowly, it’s not like it ’s all gone and they’ll stop by lunchtime sell, and let's say you decide to buy bonds for 500,000, let's say, yes, that is , you will do the following, buy them right now, when you have decided that you are starting to buy, buy right now for 200,000,

you can buy bonds now , not only are they cheaper than face value, that is, how much now, let’s say, from 100%, how much now, we say, when at the bottom, there are from 80 to 95 depending on what, that is, in fact there are already almost 10- you can earn 15% only if you you buy a bond and are not going to speculate on it, you just bought it and put alexey in your portfolio, everything, that is , the state owes you, it will pay, well, if

something doesn’t happen, yes, we accept. this zero risk that nothing will happen to our state, it will pay off its obligations, plus it will also pay you a coupon every year. you can find all episodes of the easy money podcast on the website of the first channel 1tv.ru, what about corporate debts? corporate debts are an interesting thing, but still less important to me seems to be useful for private investors. on the one hand, corporate debts provide greater returns, but if the credit debts provide greater returns, what kind of returns? well? it depends on the credit quality of the issuer, or, in other words, on the issuer’s ability to return the money. if we say that in the case of ofzs the state can theoretically always print money and pay off its bonds, then of course no corporation can do this, now what are the rates for, well, let’s say, as they say there , i’ll explain for our viewers, the first echelon, yes, these are the highest, the best blue chips, so-called, the best borrowers, and the largest state- and non-state corporations, how much they pay in their own way, approximately plus one

percentage point.

it is precisely the technical default that begins, that is , 30 days are given for the company to fulfill its obligation under this coupon; if it does not fulfill this obligation within 30 days, a real default occurs, why? because bondholders can present these bonds for redemption, well , in this case the whole procedure comes into play, it is impossible just to say, i forgive everyone to whom i owe everything, yes, that is, in this case , the appropriate procedures follow, i explain to our investors in corporate debt, the appropriate procedures by which the company’s property is assessed, its sale is underway, god forbid, moreover, in fact, no one goes into default right away either, because usually companies try to restructure. yes, that is, the company usually gathers the largest investors, bondholders of this company, and offers some options, for example, to replace these bonds with new ones in such conditions, explaining why, that this happened, investors often agree, well , simply because it is better to be blue in the hand than

a pie in the sky, but those obligations that were, should have been fulfilled were not fulfilled , but everyone still wants to get money, they agree to the terms of restructuring, as the great wise russian and russian people with black sheep say... that’s absolutely right, because if the bankruptcy procedure begins, yes, then a lot of subtleties and nuances begin there, what kind of queue, the money will be the first there, well , there is a priority of payments for bankruptcy, and we won’t dig deep now, but the point is that bonds are not the first priority, yes, it is still unknown how much will be left after all these queues of payments for us investors, those who are going to, well , well, i’ll say, chase after this additional 2% per annum. there is not a government debt to buy at 13.5, but corporate securities to buy there with a yield of 15-16%, they must figure out what queue they stand in as investors, if suddenly something happens, but in

in principle, alexey, i understand correctly that it makes sense for small investors, private ones, to trust this same pool of large investors who, in any case, while fighting for their own rights, they are actually fighting for the rights of everyone, including minorities. including, that is, for everyone who owns this class of bonds. and there were examples, in recent history, in the 2000s, in the 1900s, of such defaults, and not technical ones, when there was a delay in coupon payment, i don’t know, for a month, even for six months, god bless him, exactly that refusal to fulfill their obligations on a large scale, i even took part in this myself when i bought bonds of an energy company and then i was offered to replace the bonds that had gone into default with other bonds, but...

this debt, everyone is holding it to the limit, yes, this is the main problem, because even the largest borrowers of reliable borrowers from the top 10 russian companies have a problem with liquidity, let’s sum up our program in a practical sense, let’s talk about how to start with, here that’s great, people listened to us, yes, they said, listen, it’s a great topic in general, yes, why am i suffering here with these shares, worrying, yes, i won’t even. let’s hope that nothing will happen, i’ll buy there, well, not ten-year, three-year securities, here’s the yield, these are 15%, they’re for me or 14, they suit me, i won’t, as they say, worry about what to do , this is what needs to be done physically, well, first of all, we

must open a brokerage account on the stock exchange, it’s fixed, we open a brokerage account, yes, we put money there, go to terminal, although now terminals are not even needed anymore, i understand correctly that now here is a seamless so-called story, that if you have... a bank account, then you can almost remotely open an account with a broker, and you are verified through government services, yes, if you have a confirmed photo record, now it works, i can open a brokerage account without my personal presence, and there are a lot of similar offers, if i have a bank account, i am already verified there as a citizen , user, taxpayer, the most the main thing and the entry is confirmed by government services, then i just do it online with leading brokers, even the banks have sorted it out. even banks, yes, yes, yes, so, we opened a brokerage account, deposited money there, also just from a bank account, seamlessly, remotely, without getting up from the couch, then, i can ask my broker, listen, dear comrade there,

tell me what opportunities there are generally for a year, two, three, based on the fact that i listened to khanov and butcherov, they talked about some kind of government bonds there, brokers provide such a service selection of bonds, i think it’s already there. for example, by the period to maturity, that is, when this debt is repaid, and the yield is indicated there, and the repayment yield will be indicated there, this is one graph, it demonstrates some semantic things very well, it is built on federal loan bonds of 2011, which alexey, let’s do this, here i am, an engineer minus a physicist by training, i’m used to starting with a coordinate system along the abscis axis, which is plotted along the abscis axis or x axis, these are dates,

fulfillment, they would receive an annual coupon or once every six months, and accordingly, at the end of the term, the state or someone would repay their obligations, now the red line, this is exactly how specific bonds behaved here , ofz 2621, and taking into account just that. .. look, i specifically took the crisis of 2014, they

sank and the person received coupons, but did not reinvest them back into bonds, and now we look at the red graph, this is how much a person would earn in the end, well, that is, 1.6 times, that is for a 10, almost 10 years people would have earned 600,000 on a million, that is , in 10 years he would have 1,600, yes, the green graph is much more interesting, this is exactly the case when a person receives a coupon. and we see that we are very close to the theoretical price, yes, which we planned for the maturity date, this point, which is in such a brightly expressed color, this is exactly that terrible word of macaulay duration, all professional investors know well that this is the point with a very high probability that you and i will get the result frame earlier, not even necessarily holding the bond to the end from... the maturity date and we see that even in this example the bonds

brought us even better results by this time, here is another graph, this is the same story, but according to we also have time and times of capital on the scales, yes, yes, yes, other bonds are absolutely true, but this is not important, the straight line is theoretical, the red one is also with reinvestment and the coupon, here is the green line, inflation, look how good. we see that on over a long-term horizon, government bonds actually either correspond to inflation, or even sometimes beat it at some intervals. it was not in vain that i said today that in my opinion we have a 3-4% real return on the inflation that i expect over the horizon of 5-10 years, that is, we are talking about the fact that today, having bought very reliable securities, you get , i would even say that it is truly zero for a very simple reason: if tomorrow the state does not pay its debts, it will stop. exist at all financial they definitely won’t be able to do anything, no dia system, certainly the banks won’t pay,

won’t save the banks, because one of the largest holders of these same bonds are banks, including state-owned ones, yes, they buy it not only from the point of view of profitability, they can use these bonds for various transactions, attract short-term capital from the same central bank in the form of collateral, and so on, so if tomorrow the state does not pay for these securities, the banking system will not exist, the abbreviation dia, which... you mentioned, this is a deposit insurance agency, this is the same 1.4 million rubles that the state obliges us in any bank, no matter where you place your deposits, if this bank is a participant in the deposit insurance system, then the deposit insurance agency will fulfill the obligation, but the state will compensate you with 1.4 million in each bank, so here, of course, we have discussed the topic of bonds, it is for those who are really... smarter and more patient in their

expectations from the stock market, they are realistic, because those returns which we have described, they are large enough to be simply interesting, absolutely large, they are relatively interesting, because they are 3-4% higher than inflation, and i can say that a year ago the minister of finance sat in this chair russian federation, anton germanovich sluanov, and we are sorting it out. with him the topic of current investments, even then they said that now, probably, there will still be a period of raising rates, but in principle it is already possible to invest in bonds, no. let's just say, trying to catch the same thing bottom, and simply buying a high enough coupon, in principle, this topic is relevant now, as we actually found out. alexey, thank you very much for helping us understand smart money, namely money that is invested in debt obligations of the state and companies,

thank you for coming, a very interesting conversation, thank you, mikhail, thank you, i’m very glad. hello everyone, this is a free program podcast, i’m maxim tronkov, our guest is a man who, with his career-ending skate, raised the anniversary st. petersburg, alexander samarin. sash, hi, hi, max.

well, tell me, did it take 20 years or more of a career to experience the emotions that you experienced on your anniversary? that’s it, it was worth it, the whole

journey was interesting, here’s the skate in the anniversary one, it... was like the cherry on the cake, and i’m glad that it turned out to be done beautifully and that i was given the opportunity to skate there, get emotions, memory, remember this a moment with which i will probably still wake up sometimes, remembering the goosebumps of everything, everything, everything, the most beautiful thing, that’s all summed up, the first channel, so i’m happy that i had such a path, but in fact, it seems to me that this was also a kind of gratitude from the audience not only for your long career, but also for the honesty with which you announced ending your career, that you didn’t pause like other athletes or didn’t take a break, but you came and

literally after the competition in the mix zone announced that this was my last start and i was packing up. continues to experience such mixed emotions, we periodically talk about this topic and we understand perfectly well that this is... we did everything as it should have been, everything was on time, everything was fine, but when i go out on the ice to prepare for the show or something else, you can see the sadness in her eyes, they are experiencing such melancholy, this question is...